[US Fed Held Rates Unchanged, SHFE and LME Centers Continued to Move Lower This Week] At the beginning of the week, the market was heavily affected by geopolitical disruptions, with strong wait-and-see sentiment, and LME zinc maintained a fluctuating trend; subsequently, from a fundamental perspective, inventories outside China accumulated sharply, compounded by the escalation of the Middle East conflict, and market expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts cooled significantly, putting LME zinc under pressure and driving it lower......

This week, prices of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China strengthened to 10,000-10,100 yuan/mt; prices of stainless steel scrap off-cuts of the same specification in Foshan also rose, with the price range at 9,600-9,900 yuan/mt. In terms of raw material production costs, the current cost of producing stainless steel entirely from stainless steel scrap was about 14,098.03 yuan/mt, while the cost of production using only high-grade NPI was 14,786.98 yuan/mt. This week, stainless steel scrap prices fell back, mainly driven by macro sentiment disruptions, weak futures, and pressure on both supply and demand. Escalating geopolitical conflicts, coupled with hawkish remarks from the US Fed, dragged SS futures into the doldrums overall, with the bearish impact directly transmitted to the spot market. Stainless steel finished product prices also pulled back across the board, and market pessimism gradually spread. Prices of substitute raw materials also pulled back, while stainless steel mills showed a strong inclination to push for lower prices. NPI traders turned weaker in sentiment and sold at low prices, and the high-grade NPI market also softened. In addition, Tsingshan's April tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome was set low, not only below previous market expectations but also lower than current retail quotations, limiting room for ferrochrome prices to rise and eliminating the support from substitute raw materials for stainless steel scrap. Currently, inventory at stainless steel scrap yards remained relatively high. Coupled with tight tax invoice availability, stainless steel mills were not active in procurement tenders, and the procurement pace continued to slow down. Amid the resonance of multiple bearish factors, stainless steel scrap prices fell in line with futures and finished products. Although stainless steel scrap still maintained a clear economic advantage over high-grade NPI, under the overall weak market atmosphere, cost support was difficult to translate into price support and failed to reverse the downward price trend. Overall, the stainless steel scrap market this week showed a weak pattern of "futures drag, weaker raw materials, and pressure on supply and demand." In the short term, bearish factors are expected to dominate, and stainless steel scrap prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

[Magnesium Prices Stuck in Dilemma: Geopolitical Tensions, Cost Support, and Demand Surge Clash with High Supply] Reviewing the recent magnesium market, magnesium prices repeatedly fluctuated within the 16,600-16,700 range, with a relatively slow pace.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China exported 12,052.46 mt of copper enamelled wire in January 2026, down 1.19% YoY; exports were 10,239.85 mt in February, up 39.64% YoY; cumulative exports in January-February 2026 reached 22,292.31 mt, up 14.14% YoY on a cumulative basis. (HS code 85441100)

Middle East tensions have sparked a massive steel trade "mismatch." Iran's blocked exports created a 2.3-million-ton billet vacuum in Southeast Asia, while the Red Sea crisis stalled China's flat steel shipments to the Gulf. Consequently, China and India are rapidly absorbing SEA's diverted billet orders. SMM projects that blocked flat steel returning to China's domestic market, combined with surging overseas billet demand, will accelerate the narrowing of the domestic HRC-rebar spread.

SMM Nickel, March 20: Macro and Market News: (1) The Party Committee of the People's Bank of China held an enlarged meeting on March 18, which stated that it would continue to effectively implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, firmly safeguard the stable operation of financial markets such as equities, bonds, and foreign exchange, and advance legislative formulation and amendments including the People's Bank of China Law and the Financial Stability Law. (2) The interest rate futures market priced in only 5.5 basis points of US Fed interest rate cuts this year, and bets on rate hikes began to emerge. Spot Market: On March 20, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel rose by 3,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,550 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the mainstream China electrodeposited nickel brands were quoted at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) staged a sharp rebound, closing the morning session at 134,780 yuan/mt, up 1.50. Yesterday, nickel prices once fell below the 130,000 yuan mark, as trades on expectations of a global economic recession triggered by escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East put the metals complex under pressure overall. Nickel prices then took the lead in rebounding sharply, recovering to around 135,000 yuan/mt in the morning session. Short term, sentiment from the macro perspective may continue to dominate the market, and nickel prices may maintain wide swings.

SMM News, March 19: Total inventory in the two major stainless steel markets of Wuxi and Foshan declined further this week, falling from 998,100 mt on March 12, 2026 to 979,300 mt on March 19, down 1.88% WoW. Stainless steel social inventory extended its decline this week, with inventory in the two core markets of Wuxi and Foshan continuing to pull back WoW. Although the market has entered the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April," ongoing geopolitical conflicts continued to disrupt the market this week, while SS futures weakened and came under pressure, leading to a clear lack of market confidence. Overall transactions during the week were weaker than last week; even though the demand-side recovery fell short of expectations, downstream end-users still maintained a just-in-time procurement pace. Supply side, stainless steel mills faced the dual pressure of elevated production schedules and high inventory, and their willingness to ship stayed high; during the week, a major mainstream mill lowered its guidance price, directly boosting market transactions and becoming the core driver behind the slight pullback in inventory. Sentiment in both the spot market and futures was subdued. Coupled with geopolitical conflicts and limited upside in raw material prices, the market's earlier bullish sentiment completely faded, while downstream buyers only maintained just-in-time procurement with no willingness to stockpile, further constraining restocking room. Overall, this week's modest inventory drawdown mainly relied on active shipments by steel mills and support from just-in-time transactions. Current social inventory remained at a high level, and with March production schedule expectations still relatively high, pressure on inventory drawdown remained prominent. Although inventory posted consecutive declines in the short term, constrained by weak market confidence and the absence of downstream stockpiling demand, inventory is unlikely to see a substantial drawdown. Whether inventory can continue to decline steadily will still depend on close monitoring of how the geopolitical situation evolves and the pace of actual downstream demand release.

Downstream Purchasing Activity for Nickel Intermediate Products Increased, Tight Supply and Demand Drove Prices Higher

[Price Review] During the week, silver prices remained in the doldrums. In China, the Ag (T+D) contract on the Shanghai Gold Exchange broke below the support level of 18,000 yuan/kg, while LBMA silver prices kept probing lower after falling below $75/oz. From a macro perspective, escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices to repeated new highs, while intensifying inflation concerns significantly cooled expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and delayed the timing of the first cut to year-end. The simultaneous strength in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields became the core factors suppressing silver prices. On Wednesday local time, the US Fed announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged. In the statement released that day, it noted that the impact of the Middle East situation on the US economy remained uncertain and that uncertainty surrounding the US economic outlook was still elevated. In addition, speculative demand and ETF holdings continued to decline, and market sentiment kept cooling. As for the gold/silver ratio, because silver posted a deeper decline, the ratio continued to rise. As of March 18, the LBMA gold/silver ratio had climbed to 63, a recent high. [Important Data] Bullish: US preliminary March one-year inflation expectations came in at 3.4%, above expectations and unchanged from the previous reading Bearish: US API crude oil inventory for the week ended March 13 increased by 6.556 million barrels, above expectations and the previous reading US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ended March 13 increased by 6.156 million barrels, above expectations and the previous reading Data and macro releases to watch next week include: Continued hawkishness from the US Fed, the ECB rate decision, US inflation/employment data, COMEX silver delivery, together with the Boao Forum and geopolitical risks On March 19, the FOMC kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, raised its 2026 PCE forecast to 2.7%, and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts cooled sharply. US-Iran Situation: As of March 19, the military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran had entered their 19th day, with high-intensity confrontation, no sign of a ceasefire, and the conflict spreading to multiple Gulf countries. In terms of the current impact on precious metals, financial suppression outweighed safe-haven demand. Against the backdrop of surging inflation expectations, the US dollar and US Treasury yields continued to rise, the timing of US Fed interest rate cuts was delayed, and silver prices were suppressed. [Price Forecast] Silver prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the doldrums amid the interplay between macro disruptions and fundamentals. On the macro front, caution is still warranted over the risk of continued US dollar strength and heightened volatility from any further escalation in the US-Iran conflict. On the fundamentals side, as PV export rush orders gradually approached their end, rigid demand for raw material procurement by silver nitrate enterprises declined in late March, weakening support from industrial demand. In China's spot market, as investment demand and rigid industrial demand softened, coupled with replenishment from imported silver ingots, circulating supply of silver ingots in the spot market became ample, and suppliers generally lowered spot premium quotes to facilitate transactions. The abnormally high spot premiums in China's spot market will come to an end. At the same time, profitability on imported silver ingots will also decline sharply, and spot premium quotes in actual spot silver ingot transactions are expected to return to rational levels.

This week, LCO market prices were basically stable, with mainstream quotations for conventional grades remaining above 400,000 yuan/mt, while high-voltage products held firm at the 420,000 yuan/mt threshold. Affected by the traditional off-season for consumer electronics in Q1 and disruptions in chip supply, battery cell manufacturers currently had relatively sufficient raw material inventory, and purchase willingness declined further WoW. Market transactions were mainly driven by the execution of existing long-term contract and rigid demand, with limited release of new orders. Against the backdrop of rangebound fluctuations in upstream raw materials and downstream demand yet to recover, LCO prices were expected to remain largely stable in the short term, with most market participants adopting a wait-and-see attitude pending further clarity on the subsequent demand pace. Wang Cong 021-51666838 Ma Rui 021-51595780 Feng Disheng 021-51666714 Lv Yanlin 021-20707875 Zhou Zhicheng 021-51666711 Zhang Haohan 021-51666752 Wang Zihan 021-51666914 Wang Jie 021-51595902 Xu Yang 021-51666760 Yang Lianting 021-51595835 Wang Zhaoyu 021-51666827