This week, ferrous metals retreated after a rapid rise. At the beginning of the week, the market said that Asia had shifted to coal-fired power generation due to a natural gas supply deficit, while Indonesia would increase coal production and impose export taxes. The rise in international coal prices was transmitted to China, and coking coal and coke led the gains in ferrous metals; mid-week, the Middle East situation remained volatile, and the U.S. and Iran held differing attitudes toward war, with ferrous metals consolidating at high levels; the pullback in the second half of the week was also mainly due to the weakening of the cost-side logic, as market rumors said long-term iron ore contract negotiations had been completed, expectations for tightening iron ore supply declined, and raw materials turned into the main driver of the pullback. In the spot market, speculative trading and end-user purchase sentiment improved in the first half of the week, while rigid demand remained dominant in the second half, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

This week, News during the week mainly centered on iron ore negotiations. Under bearish market expectations, ore prices weakened accordingly, while coking coal and coke also declined due to the pullback in crude oil. Returning to HRC supply and demand, production fluctuated rangebound this week. Social inventory as a whole maintained a destocking trend.Traders' purchase pace was moderate, and mill inventory turned from rising to falling. Downstream demand remained lukewarm, with low purchase willingness for HRC, CRC, galvanizing and other products in large volumes. Looking ahead,HRC's fundamentals were unlikely to show any bright spots, and it is expected to continue moving sideways next week in line with the cost side.

[Renewed Environmental Protection Measures in Northern China Slightly Weighed on Galvanizing Operating Rates]: This week, the operating rate of the galvanizing industry was 58.88, down slightly by 0.81 percentage points WoW. Raw material side, zinc prices rebounded this week, downstream pick-up of goods was limited and consumption was mainly from existing stocks, but zinc ingots previously price-fixed by galvanising enterprises arrived one after another, leading to a slight decline in zinc ingot inventory at galvanising enterprises. The lower operating rate was mainly due to the renewed environmental protection measures in some northern regions, which affected operations.

Recently, the first coils were successfully rolled off the pickling line and hot-dip galvanizing line of the cold-rolling project of Anhui Panhua New Materials Co., Ltd., for which China National Heavy Machinery Research Institute Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of SINOMACH Heavy Equipment Group, served as the EPC contractor, marking the successful commissioning of the project.

As expectations for the peak-season demand in the “Golden March” gradually begin to materialize, galvanizing operating rates are rising. Can downstream consumption sustain its peak-season performance going forward?

According to the latest customs data, China’s total exports of die-casting zinc alloy from January to February reached 689.33 mt, up slightly by 0.9 percentage points YoY on a cumulative basis; imports, however, totaled 48.11 million mt, down 35.46 percentage points YoY on a cumulative basis. Overall, China’s die-casting zinc alloy trade from January to February showed a pattern of slightly higher exports and a significant pullback in imports.

[Consumption Expectations Were Gradually Realized, Operating Rates of Galvanising Producers Continued to Increase]: This week, the operating rate of the galvanizing industry was 59.7, up 6.69 percentage points WoW. Raw material side, zinc prices pulled back sharply this week, galvanising enterprises actively fixed prices to stockpile, and zinc ingot inventory at galvanising enterprises increased significantly.

[Zinc Prices Fell During the Week, Guangdong Spot Premiums Rose] Guangdong premiums rose 20 yuan/mt WoW this week. As of this Friday, mainstream 0# zinc in Guangdong was quoted at discounts of 0 to premiums of 40 yuan/mt against the market, and the Shanghai-Guangdong price spread continued to widen......

[SMM Analysis] Freight Rates Surge, Making Deals Difficult for Steel Expor ters Affected by the US-Iran conflict, tight energy supply and sharply higher fuel costs, compounded by exchange rate fluctuations, have continuously pushed up China's export offers in recent days. Compared with the beginning of the month (March 6), SMM HRC prices have been raised by $9/mt; galvanizing prices rose by $11/mt; CRC rose by $5/mt; billet rose by $6/mt; and rebar rose by $6/mt. However, looking back at market transaction performance, deals weakened again recently. According to the SMM survey, ocean freight rates surged sharply, with current freight to the Middle East as high as $50-60. Most outside China clients remained on the sidelines; shipowners also refused to commit tonnage while waiting for the market to stabilize. For China exporters, there were offers but no market, making shipments difficult. Meanwhile, market sources said Hadeed, the GCC's only flat steel producer, raised its May hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices, still related to shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. HRC cargoes previously booked from China and other origins were also being redirected to the west coast, mainly heading to Jeddah Port, bringing high inland transportation costs. As for global steel prices, in India, in addition to rising raw material costs and rupee depreciation, a sudden LNG energy shortage further pushed up production costs, forcing steel mills to maintain a strong willingness to hold prices firm despite the traditional domestic off-season and blocked exports. In the Southeast Asian market, price increases were accepted entirely passively, mainly due to the rigid pass-through of high ocean freight rates by overseas suppliers. Although Southeast Asian buyers hesitated to take orders, they had no choice but to passively accept the increases against the backdrop of persistently high geopolitical logistics costs. At the same time, CIS export offers also rose significantly, benefiting from the intensifying geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the resulting short-term global supply tightens. In the Middle East market, meanwhile, as war tensions continued to escalate, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz completely disrupted transportation, while freight rates and delivery uncertainty pushed the sheets & plates import markets in the UAE and Saudi Arabia into a complete standstill. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

[Operating Rates of Galvanising Producers Continued to Increase]: This week, the operating rate of the galvanizing industry was 53, up 13.94 percentage points WoW. Raw material side, zinc prices fluctuated this week, and zinc ingots previously price-fixed by galvanising enterprises arrived one after another, leading to a slight increase in zinc ingot inventory at galvanising enterprises.