June 5 News: North China ports: South African high-iron ore at yuan/mtu 32-32.5, down WoW from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate ore at yuan/mtu 37.8-38.3, down WoW from last Friday; Gabonese ore at yuan/mtu 41.2-41.8, flat WoW from last Friday; 46% grade Australian lumps at yuan/mtu 43.5-44, down WoW from last Friday; South African medium-iron ore at yuan/mtu 38.5-39, down WoW from last Friday. South China ports: South African high-iron ore at yuan/mtu 34.9-35.4, down WoW from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate ore at yuan/mtu 36.5-37, flat WoW from last Friday; Gabonese ore at yuan/mtu 41.7-42.2, flat WoW from last Friday; 46% grade Australian lumps at yuan/mtu 43.5-44, down WoW from last Friday; South African medium-iron ore at yuan/mtu 38-38.5, down WoW from last Friday. With weakening cost support outside China and sluggish end-use demand, spot manganese ore in China fluctuates downward overall, though the short-term decline has moderated somewhat.

Over the past half-century of industrialisation, the global seaborne iron ore market consolidated around a duopoly dominated by Australia's Pilbara region and Brazil's Carajás and Iron Quadrangle districts. However, driven by macroeconomic cycle evolution, a structural shift in China's growth engine, and the steel industry's irreversible push toward low-carbon and green transformation, this traditional supply map is undergoing an unprecedented reshaping. On 26 November 2025, the first commercial vessel loaded with Simandou iron ore departed from the Port of Mabarya, marking the official commissioning of Guinea's Simandou Iron Ore Project — the world's largest undeveloped high-grade greenfield iron ore deposit by reserve. This milestone signals that the African continent, long relegated to secondary status, is progressively emerging as a significant new force in the global ferrous metals market. Africa's iron ore resources are widely regarded as the third-largest iron ore supply region globally, after Brazil's Carajás and Australia's Pilbara. With an estimated 13.8% share of global iron ore resources, and representing the most significant supply-side growth driver over the next five years, shifts in African iron ore dynamics will be a key determinant of international iron ore pricing over the long term. I. Global Iron Ore Market Background According to SMM research data, global iron ore production in 2025 is estimated at approximately 2.472 billion tonnes (bt). Africa contributes roughly 95 million tonnes (Mt), representing close to 4% of global output. As major mining projects progressively come on stream, Africa's iron ore production capacity is forecast to double by 2030, reaching approximately 259 Mt. Assuming no production curtailments elsewhere, Africa's global market share could rise to nearly 10%, while the overall global iron ore supply surplus is projected to widen to approximately 220 Mt. Although the international iron ore market has already entered a prolonged loose supply cycle, the substantive supply shock from African iron ore is expected to materialise gradually over the next five years. In the near term, Africa's estimated incremental shipment of approximately 15 Mt in 2026 — bolstered by its superior high-grade characteristics — is expected to be absorbed relatively smoothly by steelmakers seeking low-carbon blending feedstocks, resulting in a relatively moderate impact on absolute benchmark pricing. The critical inflection point is projected to fall in 2028–2029. As rail and port infrastructure currently under construction in West Africa is fully commissioned, a surge in high-grade iron ore output will exert heavy downward pressure on the right-hand side of the global iron ore cost curve. This will not only systematically compress the iron ore price floor but will trigger intense structural displacement — squeezing the operating margin of low-grade, high-cost producers. The current price downcycle is expected to persist through 2028. When international ore prices breach the USD 90/tonne marginal cost support level, higher-cost non-mainstream small and mid-size mines will be forced into curtailment and exit. The resulting supply shakeout will reshape the global iron ore supply structure into a multi-oligopoly dominated by ultra-large, low-cost operations (including the new African mines), complemented by quality mid-tier producers. II. Africa's Current Market Landscape: South Africa as Dominant Producer, West Africa Expanding Aggressively Building on the global context, this section focuses on Africa's overall iron ore landscape. As the primary driver of supply growth over the next five years, Africa's iron ore production is concentrated in West Africa and South Africa, currently dominated by three key countries. South Africa South Africa is the continent's largest producer, with 2025 output reaching approximately 67 Mt and export shipments maintaining an overwhelming 65% share of total African iron ore exports. However, South Africa's iron ore sector faces structural constraints limiting its organic growth headroom. As other emerging African resource nations commission significant new projects, South Africa's share of total African export volumes is projected to face sustained compression. Mauritania Mauritania is Africa's second-largest iron ore producer, with 2025 output of 15 Mt and export volumes of approximately 12 Mt, representing approximately 12% of the African market. Strategically situated adjacent to the Atlantic Ocean with high-grade iron ore deposits deep within the Sahara Desert, Mauritania possesses highly advantageous geographic and mineralogical characteristics. Its proximity to European and Middle Eastern markets — both in urgent need of green industrial raw materials — provides ideal conditions for the country to become a hub for global green metallurgy capacity relocation. Mauritania is expected to emerge as a highly promising iron ore supply nation going forward. Sierra Leone Sierra Leone is another important regional supply pole, with projected 2025 output also reaching approximately 12 Mt, holding a stable share of approximately 12% in the African export market. Chinese-invested iron ore mines within the country are actively scaling up their operations. Trade Flow Overview Based on full-year 2024 trade data, the proportion of African iron ore shipped to China is relatively low compared to traditional mainstream ore origins, at approximately 60%. The broader Pan-Asian market — encompassing China, Japan, and South Korea — absorbs approximately 70% of total African iron ore shipments. Western European countries, led by the Netherlands and Germany, constitute Africa's core secondary destination, accounting for close to 14% of trade flows. The remaining marginal trade flows are broadly diversified, extending to emerging steelmaking capacity clusters in the Middle East, including Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. Key Corporate Players At the corporate level, South Africa's Kumba Iron Ore and Assmang rank as Africa's largest and second-largest iron ore producers, with annual output of approximately 37 Mt and 17 Mt respectively. Kumba Iron Ore: Kumba's mining operations — including the Sishen mine — are globally recognised for producing high-grade fines (Fe >62%) and metallurgically superior premium lump ore (Fe 65.2%). Under the prevailing trend of blast furnace (BF) emission reduction, this type of direct-charge lump ore — which reduces sintering-related carbon emissions — commands strong market demand and a substantial price premium. Assmang: Assmang similarly holds high-quality iron ore assets, operated as a 50:50 joint venture between African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) and Assore. Its Assmang Fines and Assmang Lump products (Fe 64–65%) are also direct-charge, high-quality materials. However, the company's key bottleneck lies not at the pithead but on the rail. Heavy dependence on Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) for haulage means logistics constraints frequently cap its achievable shipment volumes. SNIM (Société Nationale Industrielle et Minière): Mauritania's state-owned mining company is Africa's third-largest iron ore producer after the two South African majors. Unlike mainstream Australian and Brazilian ores, SNIM products occupy a distinctive niche in terms of physicochemical specifications and market segment. Its most widely traded product, TZFC fines, is characterised by extremely low alumina (Al2O3) and phosphorus (P) content. As an excellent blending ore, major steelmakers regularly blend SNIM fines with high-alumina Australian fines (such as certain Pilbara blend products) to significantly dilute the impurity ratio in the burden, thereby optimising blast furnace performance metrics. III. Africa's Market Transformation: Major Producers Facing Stagnation; Emerging Projects as Primary Growth Drivers Where does future growth lie? According to SMM observations, Africa is expected to undergo a significant structural transformation within the next five years. Multiple large-scale iron ore projects across the continent are currently under construction, with scheduled commissioning prior to 2030. Based on our modelling, African iron ore supply is forecast to grow substantially from the current approximately 95 Mt to 260 Mt over five years — a cumulative increase of 85%. The market structure is also expected to shift from South Africa-dominated Western-oriented exports to a Guinea-led export paradigm. Guinea — Simandou Iron Ore Project The primary growth driver will be Guinea's renowned Simandou iron ore project, jointly developed by multiple entities and representing the world's largest undeveloped high-grade open-pit hematite deposit. The project holds reserves in excess of 5 billion tonnes (bt) and a designed production capacity of 120 Mt per annum, making it the project with the greatest strategic potential to reshape the existing iron ore market structure. Since first ore shipments in late November 2025, cumulative exports from the principal export hub — the Port of Mabarya — reached approximately 1.6 Mt through Q1 2026. Blocks 1 & 2, developed under the Winning Consortium Simandou (WCS), have successfully commenced production, with 2026 capacity expected to reach nameplate and ramp-up to 60 Mt per annum projected over the next two to three years. Blocks 3 & 4, led by Simfer (a Rio Tinto and Baowu joint venture), are forecast to commission in Q1 2026, with estimated 2026 shipments of 5 Mt and a 30-month ramp-up timeline to reach 60 Mt per annum. In aggregate, Guinea is projected to achieve 120 Mt per annum before 2030, becoming the world's second-largest single iron ore project by capacity — second only to Vale's S11D project in Brazil (designed capacity of 200 Mt post-expansion, expected by 2030). Other African Countries — Key Development Projects Other nations — including Liberia, Gabon, Sierra Leone, and the Republic of Congo — all have iron ore projects under development. Projects scheduled for commissioning before 2030 account for a combined planned capacity of approximately 46 Mt. The largest single project is ArcelorMittal Liberia's (AML) Tokadeh Phase II, expected to commission in H2 2026 and reach a nameplate capacity of 20 Mt per annum by year-end, producing iron ore concentrate with an estimated grade exceeding Fe 66%. Given that AML's European steelmaking capacity cannot absorb such a large volume increment in the near term, the majority of Tokadeh's output is expected to enter the international seaborne market, exerting pricing pressure on the iron ore concentrate segment. South Africa — Structural Constraints on Production Growth South Africa's output is expected to remain broadly stable in the 63–67 Mt range, with mild downside risk. The primary underlying cause is the country's heavy dependence on the heavy-haul Sishen–Saldanha Bay rail corridor, operated by Transnet Freight Rail (TFR). In recent years, TFR has suffered a severe reduction in effective haulage capacity due to locomotive fleet shortages, frequent cable theft incidents, and chronic infrastructure underinvestment, materially constraining the rail transport of major bulk commodities including iron ore and coal. In its FY2025 annual results published in February 2026, Kumba Iron Ore — South Africa's dominant iron ore producer — reported total finished goods inventory of 7.5 Mt, up from 6.9 Mt at end-2024. With rail haulage capacity unable to match mine production, South Africa's major iron ore producers have been compelled to stockpile large volumes at mine sites. To avoid inventory saturation, miners have been forced to proactively revise production guidance downward. While producers are actively addressing haulage constraints, the deeply entrenched structural issues on the rail network are unlikely to be resolved in the short term. Mauritania — SNIM Long-Term Strategic Growth Blueprint Post-2030, attention turns to SNIM's strategic growth roadmap. Under its Horizon 1 programme, the company plans to raise annual production capacity to 45 Mt by 2031, through the implementation of lean manufacturing practices, equipment and technology upgrades, and the co-development of new mineral reserves. Of this total, 20 Mt will be produced under SNIM's wholly owned capacity, while the remaining 25 Mt will be realised through joint ventures with international capital partners. SNIM has further set a long-term target to expand annual capacity to 80 Mt by 2045 under its Horizon 3 plan. Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) — MIFOR (Grand Est Iron Ore Project) On 26 March 2026, the DRC and China signed a Memorandum of Understanding designating the MIFOR project as a priority flagship initiative. The deposit is estimated to hold cumulative resources of 15–20 bt, with an average grade exceeding Fe 60% — a potential scale approximately 2.5 times that of Guinea's Simandou. Phase I capital expenditure is estimated at USD 28.9 billion, encompassing the construction of a heavy-haul railway and the utilisation of Congo River navigation, ultimately linking to a deep-water port at Banana on the Atlantic coast. Phase I design capacity stands at 50 Mt per annum, with a long-term target of scaling to 300 Mt per annum. These projects collectively underscore Africa's inevitable emergence as an indispensable iron ore supply source for the global steel industry. IV. Global Steel Industry Chain Transformation: Can Africa, as a Hub for High-Grade Ore, Enable DRI Production? High-Grade Ore as a DRI Feedstock Advantage Notably, the majority of Africa's current and planned iron ore projects produce ore at average total iron (Fe) grades predominantly above 65%, with extremely low impurity content. This scarce, high-grade ore is the ideal feedstock for the Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) process. As the DRI-Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) green steel route gains traction across Europe, the Americas, and China, demand for iron ore at Fe 65% and above will grow exponentially on the demand side. This will confer a substantial 'grade premium' on major projects, including South Africa's Kumba, Guinea's Simandou, and other future African producers. Over the longer term, iron ore pricing benchmarks are inexorably shifting away from the traditional Platts 62% Fe index, and African ore producers will gain bargaining leverage when renewing long-term supply agreements, thereby reshaping the global industry chain profit distribution structure. DRI Investment Pipeline in Africa In alignment with global carbon neutrality objectives, international investors — encouraged by local governments — are actively deploying capital into high value-added downstream processing facilities, including DRI plants and high-grade pellet facilities, aimed at leveraging Africa's abundant high-grade iron ore resources and vast renewable energy potential for DRI production. According to SMM observations, Africa is projected to add approximately 20 Mt of DRI capacity by 2030. The largest single project is a Libyan integrated DRI complex, jointly developed by Turkish steelmaker Tosyali and the Libyan National Steel Company, with a total design capacity of 8.1 Mt. China's Decarbonisation Push and the Global Green Steel Transition As China advances its dual carbon targets — carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 — the domestic steelmaking sector is undergoing significant adjustment. The traditional carbon-intensive Blast Furnace–Basic Oxygen Furnace (BF-BOF) long route faces increasingly stringent capacity replacement policies and environmental regulations. Simultaneously, the global trade system is accelerating the imposition of carbon costs, most notably through the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), compelling global steel supply chains to accelerate the transition from the source toward a low-carbon, ultimately zero-carbon 'green steel' era. In the context of this irreversible transition, the DRI-EAF short-route process has become the most commercially viable decarbonisation pathway. To meet surging global demand for green steel, market projections indicate that global DRI designed production capacity will need to expand by hundreds of millions of tonnes during the 2030s. This scale of expansion will profoundly alter the global steel supply structure: the share of traditional hot metal (pig iron) production will progressively decline, while low-carbon DRI supply will directly determine the competitiveness of major economies in the global green steel market. In particular, 'hydrogen metallurgy' — using green hydrogen to replace natural gas and coking coal as the reductant in iron ore reduction — is widely recognised by the industry as the core technology for achieving ultimate zero-carbon steelmaking. Africa as the Future 'Green Iron' Production Hub Represented by world-class high-grade iron ore projects such as Guinea's Simandou, the progressive commissioning of these mega-mines is expected to inject over 100 Mt of high-grade iron ore per year into the global market, substantially alleviating the global scarcity of DRI-grade ore. More critically, North Africa and West Africa possess world-leading solar and wind energy potential, enabling large-scale, low-cost green hydrogen production in situ. This perfect combination of 'high-grade ore + low-cost green hydrogen' is increasingly inclinng multinational capital and steel majors toward establishing DRI production lines directly on African soil — reducing iron ore to low-carbon Hot Briquetted Iron (HBI) on-site for ocean transport to EAF facilities in Asia and Europe. Africa is thus formally transitioning from its historical role as a raw material exporter to become an indispensable link in the green iron production chain of the future.

June 3 News: Northern ports: South African high-iron 32-32.5 yuan/mtu, down from last Wednesday; South African semi-carbonate 37.8-38.3 yuan/mtu, down from last Wednesday; Gabon 41.2-41.8 yuan/mtu, down from last Wednesday; 46% Australian lumps 43.5-44 yuan/mtu, down from last Wednesday; South African medium-iron 38.5-39 yuan/mtu, down from last Wednesday. Southern ports: South African high-iron 34.9-35.4 yuan/mtu, down from last Wednesday; South African semi-carbonate 36.5-37 yuan/mtu, down from last Wednesday; Gabon 41.7-42.2 yuan/mtu, down from last Wednesday; 46% Australian lumps 43.5-44 yuan/mtu, down from last Wednesday; South African medium-iron 38-38.5 yuan/mtu, down from last Wednesday. The current manganese ore market presents a pattern of strong cost expectations but weak actual demand, with short-term prices expected to move sideways. Going forward, the key focus will be on the pace of downstream alloy enterprises resuming production, as well as port inventory destocking.

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs, SMM statistics showed that China's total manganese ore imports in April 2026 were 2.814 million mt, down 11.61% MoM and down 5.29% YoY. From January to April 2026, total manganese ore imports were approximately 11.7467 million mt, up 1.9144 million mt YoY (approximately 8.8323 million mt imported from January to April 2025), up 33.00% YoY. Specifically, South African ore was 1.5381 million mt (down 17.02% MoM), Ghanaian ore 447,000 mt (up 127.24% MoM), Australian ore 342,800 mt (down 13.37% MoM), Gabonese ore 202,400 mt (down 55.26% MoM), Brazilian ore 109,600 mt (up 15.52% MoM), and Myanmar ore 57,800 mt (up 7.15% MoM).

April 30 update: Northern ports: South African high-grade iron ore at 33.1-35 yuan/mtu, flat WoW from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate at 39.8-40.3 yuan/mtu, down WoW from last Friday; Gabon at 44-44.6 yuan/mtu, down WoW from last Friday; 46% Australian lumps at 45.5-46 yuan/mtu, down WoW from last Friday. South China ports: South African high-grade iron ore at 36-36.5 yuan/mtu, flat WoW from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate at 37.8-38.5 yuan/mtu, down WoW from last Friday; Gabon at 42.5-43 yuan/mtu, down WoW from last Friday; 46% Australian lumps at 45-45.5 yuan/mtu, down WoW from last Friday.

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs, SMM statistics showed that China's total manganese ore imports in March 2026 were 3.1837 million mt, up 38.03% MoM and up 64.86% YoY. Total manganese ore imports from January to March 2026 were approximately 8.9327 million mt, up 3.0717 million mt YoY (approximately 5.8611 million mt imported from January to March 2025), up 52.41% YoY. In March, imports by origin were: Australia (395,700 mt, down 4.2% MoM), South Africa (1.8537 million mt, up 87.16% MoM), Gabon (452,300 mt, up 20.58% MoM), Ghana (196,700 mt, down 27.26% MoM), Brazil (94,800 mt, down 4.91% MoM), and Myanmar (53,900 mt, up 7.99% MoM).

Data from the online query platform of customs statistics showed that China's copper cathode imports in March 2026 totaled 279,368.28 mt, up 37.22% MoM and down 21.12% YoY. China imported 99,134 mt of copper cathode from the DRC in March, up 40.29% MoM and down 11.90% YoY. China imported 50,000.35 mt of copper cathode from Russia in March, up 161.09% MoM and down 31.48% YoY. Export side, China's copper cathode exports in March 2026 totaled 58,213.02 mt, down 25.59% MoM and down 14.40% YoY. China exported 20,773.82 mt of copper cathode to Taiwan, China in March, down 27.00% MoM and down 1.54% YoY. China exported 14,825.88 mt of copper cathode to Vietnam in March, up 324.68% MoM and up 109.54% YoY. Below is a breakdown of import data compiled from the General Administration of Customs website: Origin Mar 2026 (mt) MoM YoY DRC 99,134 40.29% -11.90% Russia 50,000.35 161.09% -31.48% Chile 22,176.40 -12.79% -50.96% Japan 16,813.32 149.84% 1.38% Kazakhstan 14,609.34 70.94% -27.94% Zambia 11,917.14 -48.13% -8.35% Australia 10,361.24 3,338.25% 179.50% Pakistan 8,398.21 14.35% 64.90% Myanmar 5,120.18 8.98% 278.21% Indonesia 5,019.44 340.72% 284.62% Peru 4,153.01 -22.79% -59.93% Uzbekistan 4,085.00 30.57% 44.14% Serbia 4,013.21 223.16% 71.66% Netherlands 3,492.23 - - South Africa 3,158.74 75.66% 93.03% UAE 2,332.17 -32.74% -82.42% Qatar 1,490.99 81.41% 2.66% Laos 1,240.29 149.66% 120.76% India 1,135.97 -17.24% 23.41% Spain 1,112.20 - 95.25% Poland 1,040.86 -65.70% -67.21% Belgium 991.46 - -63.55% South Korea 955.28 380.10% -74.44% Egypt 741.65 288.74% 486.40% Turkey 679.23 37.84% -65.17% Thailand 672.95 35.89% -22.71% Malaysia 613.67 -31.49% -74.16% Congo Republic 526.09 - 26.03% China 494.64 -93.81% -87.52% Morocco 393.22 -85.83% -34.82% Oman 344.97 0.02% 584.33% Georgia 328.85 192.31% 47.21% Mexico 306.63 -38.01% -85.20% Mongolia 266.98 -63.16% -86.27% Tajikistan 214.46 -36.44% 8.38% Taiwan, China 184.36 794.98% -51.82% Guinea 127.41 -29.09% -28.30% Sierra Leone 103.81 39.79% - Gabon 98.77 36.40% 113.83% Bolivia 84.3 1,045.38% -78.08% Canada 82.92 245.42% 63.55% Jordan 75.4 - -24.74% Mauritius 70.29 188.67% - Angola 50.48 -66.97% - Mozambique 48.2 - - Kenya 25 - - Brazil 23.48 - - Hong Kong, China 20.98 - 419,500.00% Germany 20.09 -40.76% 143.80% Finland 18.41 -38.81% - US 0.02 118.18% - Italy 0.02 - 15.00% Total 279,368.28 37.22% -21.12% Source: General Administration of Customs Below is a breakdown of export data compiled from the General Administration of Customs website: Destination Mar 2026 (mt) MoM YoY Taiwan, China 20,773.82 -27.00% -1.54% Vietnam 14,825.88 324.68% 109.54% Thailand 9,501.22 86.48% 99.85% South Korea 4,974.88 -79.95% -57.72% Malaysia 4,372.73 157.42% 631.26% Indonesia 1,403.09 -24.76% 99.96% India 1,202.46 -77.01% 9,249,569.23% Pakistan 548.46 171.61% 265.62% Bangladesh 504.81 25,140.40% - UAE 100.48 - - Tanzania 4.57 - - Hong Kong, China 0.61 - - UK 0.01 1,000.00% - Belgium 0.01 66.67% - Total 58,213.02 -25.59% -14.40% Source: General Administration of Customs (Wenhua Comprehensive)

Over the past half-century of industrialisation, the global seaborne iron ore market took shape and solidified into a "duopoly" supply structure dominated by Australia's Pilbara region and Brazil's Carajás and Iron Quadrangle regions. However, with the evolution of macroeconomic cycles, the structural shift in China's economic growth momentum, and the historic imperative for the global steel industry to transition toward low-carbonisation and green development, this traditional supply landscape is undergoing an unprecedented reshaping. On November 26, 2025, as the first commercial vessel loaded with Simandou iron ore slowly departed Mabariya Port for the open sea, Guinea's Simandou iron mine officially commenced production. As the world's largest and highest-quality greenfield iron ore project, this milestone signalled the gradual rise of the African continent—long relegated to a secondary position—as an important emerging force in the global ferrous metals market. Why should we pay attention to the African market? The African continent's iron ore resources are regarded as the third most important region for global iron ore supply, after Brazil's Carajás region and Australia's Pilbara region. The sheer scale and high grade of its resources account for 13.8% of global iron ore resources. It is also set to be the primary supply-side growth driver over the next five years. Therefore, changes in African iron ore will long remain a key market determining international iron ore prices . This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the current status and landscape of African iron ore and select steel markets, offers an in-depth discussion of future development trends, and presents a data-driven outlook on market changes. I. Global Iron Ore Background According to SMM survey data, as of 2025, global iron ore production is estimated at approximately 2.472 billion mt. Of this, Africa contributed approximately 95 million mt, accounting for nearly 4% of total global production. With the successive commissioning of various large-scale mining projects, Africa's iron ore capacity is expected to double by 2030, reaching a scale of nearly 259 million mt. Assuming no production cuts in other regions, Africa-produced iron ore's global market share is expected to rise to nearly 10%, while the global iron ore market's oversupply is estimated to increase to approximately 220 million mt. (Chart-1: Balance Sheet) Although the international iron ore market has already entered a prolonged cycle of loose supply, the substantive supply shock from African iron ore is expected to materialise gradually only over the next five years. In the short term, based on an estimated 15 million mt of new African shipments in 2026, their outstanding high-grade characteristics are expected to quickly meet steel mills' current demand for low-carbon ore blending, allowing the market to absorb them smoothly, with a relatively mild impact on absolute international iron ore prices. The key point to watch will be from 2028 to 2029. As railway, port, and other infrastructure facilities still under development in Africa are fully connected, the surge in high-grade iron ore production will exert heavy downward pressure on the right side of the global iron ore cost curve. This will not only systematically push down the price center of iron ore but also trigger intense structural squeeze; that is, the survival space for low-grade, high-cost mines will be significantly compressed. This price downcycle is expected to persist through 2028. When international ore prices fall below the marginal cost support level of $90/mt, non-mainstream small mines on the far right of the cost curve will be forced to shut down and exit the market. By then, the global iron ore supply landscape will have completed a new round of reshuffle, re-forming a multi-oligopoly ecosystem dominated by ultra-large, low-cost mines (including new African mines), supplemented by quality mid-sized mines. (Chart-2: Price Forecast Curve) II. African Market Current Landscape: South Africa as the Dominant Leader with Multiple Strong Players, West African Countries Actively Expanding Having analyzed the foundation of the global iron ore market landscape, the focus will now shift to the overall situation in Africa. As the primary driving force behind supply growth over the next five years, Africa's iron ore production is concentrated in West Africa and South Africa. Currently, Africa is dominated by three major countries. Among them, South Africa is the largest producer, with production reaching approximately 67 million mt in 2025, and its export shipments firmly hold an absolute dominant position of approximately 65% of Africa's total iron ore exports. However, constrained by potential structural limitations, the future organic growth potential of South Africa's iron ore industry is relatively limited. As major iron ore projects in other emerging resource-rich African countries successively come into production and release capacity, South Africa's share in Africa's overall export market is expected to face sustained contraction. Next is Mauritania, as Africa's second-largest iron ore producer, with production of 15 million mt in 2025 and export volumes of approximately 12 million mt, accounting for 12% of the African market. Mauritania borders the Atlantic Ocean, possesses abundant high-grade iron ore deposits deep in the Sahara Desert, and enjoys exceptionally favorable geographic location and mineral resources. Moreover, it is within close proximity to European and Middle Eastern markets that urgently need green industrial raw materials, providing it with unique advantages for absorbing the global transfer of green metallurgical capacity. It will be a highly promising iron ore supplier in the future. In addition, Sierra Leone, as another important supply hub in the region, also has an expected production of 12 million mt in 2025, holding a stable share of approximately 12% in the African export market. Chinese-invested iron ore mines within the country are actively expanding their operations. Macro trade flow perspective, based on full-year 2024 trade data, the proportion of African iron ore shipped to the Chinese market was relatively low compared to traditional mainstream mining regions, accounting for only about 60%, while the broader Asian market encompassing China, Japan, and South Korea collectively absorbed approximately 70% of African iron ore shipments. Meanwhile, Western European countries represented by the Netherlands and Germany constituted the core secondary shipping destination for African iron ore, with a trade flow share of nearly 14%. The remaining marginal trade flows exhibited a diversified pattern, radiating broadly to emerging steel capacity clusters in the Middle East, including Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. (Chart-3: African Iron Ore Market Overview) Enterprise level, Kumba Iron Ore and Assmang , both based in South Africa, became Africa's largest and second-largest iron ore producers with annual production of 37 million mt and 17 million mt, respectively. Kumba's mines such as Sishen are globally renowned for producing high-grade fines (>62%) and premium lump with excellent physical and metallurgical properties (Premium Lump, Fe 65.2%). Under the current trend of blast furnace emission reduction, this type of lump ore that can be directly charged into furnaces and reduce sintering carbon emissions has been highly sought after by the market, commanding a significant premium. Assmang also possesses high-quality iron ore assets, jointly controlled by African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) and Assore at a 50:50 ratio. Its Assmang fines and Assmang lump (grade at 64-65%) are also high-quality direct furnace charge materials. However, for this enterprise, the biggest bottleneck lies not at the pit head but on the rails. Heavy reliance on Transnet's rail shipping capacity means that logistics bottlenecks frequently cap its shipment volumes. SNIM (Société Nationale Industrielle et Minière de Mauritanie) is Mauritania's state-owned mining company and Africa's third-largest iron ore producer after the two South African companies. Unlike mainstream Australian and Brazilian ore, SNIM's products occupy a unique niche in terms of physicochemical specifications and market segmentation. Its most widely traded product is TZFC fines, characterized by extremely low aluminum (Al2O3) and phosphorus (P) content. As an excellent blending raw material, major steel mills prefer to blend SNIM ore fines with high-aluminum Australian fines (such as certain Pilbara blend ores) to significantly dilute the impurity ratio in furnace charge and optimize blast furnace performance. (Chart-4: Top-Tier Enterprises) III. Transformation of the African Market: Major Producing Countries May Stagnate While Emerging Projects Become Key Growth Drivers So where will future growth come from? According to SMM observations, the African market is expected to undergo significant structural changes over the next five years. Multiple large-scale iron ore projects across African countries are already under construction and plan to commence production before 2030. Based on estimates, Africa's iron ore supply is expected to grow substantially from approximately 95 million mt currently to 260 million mt over the next five years, representing a cumulative increase of up to 85%. The market landscape will also shift from South Africa-dominated exports led by Western players to Guinea-dominated exports. (Chart-5: African Market Production Trend) The primary growth driver will come from Guinea in West Africa. The country's renowned Simandou iron ore mine, jointly developed by multiple enterprises, is currently the world's largest undeveloped high-grade open-pit hematite deposit. With resource reserves exceeding 5 billion mt and a designed capacity of 120 million mt, it is the project with the greatest strategic potential to reshape the existing iron ore market landscape. Since the first ore shipment in late November 2025, as of Q1 2026, Simandou's main export port, Morebaya Port, has cumulatively shipped nearly 1.6 million mt. Blocks 1 and 2, developed under the leadership of the Winning Consortium Simandou (WCS), have been successfully commissioned, with 2026 capacity expected to be achieved and shipments expected to reach full production of 60 million mt within the next 2–3 years. Blocks 3 and 4, which are expected to commence production in Q1 2026, are led by Simfer (a Rio Tinto & Baowu joint venture) and are expected to ship 5 million mt of ore in 2026, reaching full production of 60 million mt over 30 months. In other words, Guinea is expected to reach 120 million mt before 2030, vaulting to become the world's second-largest iron ore project, behind only Brazil's S11D project (with a post-expansion designed capacity of 200 million mt, expected to commence production in 2030). Other countries such as Liberia, Gabon, Sierra Leone, and Congo Republic all have iron ore projects under development, with a combined capacity of approximately 46 million mt planned to commence production by 2030. The largest among these is the Tokadeh Phase II project (Tokadeh Phase II) in Liberia, owned by ArcelorMittal (AML), which is expected to commence production in H2 2026 and reach full production of 20 million mt capacity by year-end, with iron ore concentrate expected to exceed Fe 66%. Given that AML's steelmaking capacity in Europe cannot absorb such a massive increase in the short term, the majority of Tokadeh 's products are expected to flow into the international market for trading, exerting downward pressure on iron ore concentrate prices. Currently, the largest exporting country, South Africa, is expected to largely maintain its production within the range of 63–67 million mt, with a risk of slight decline. The primary reason is that South Africa's iron ore transportation is highly dependent on the heavy-haul railway line (TFR) from Sishen to Saldanha Port. In recent years, Transnet Freight Rail (TFR), under South Africa's national transport company Transnet, has seen a significant decline in transport capacity due to numerous issues including locomotive and rolling stock shortages, frequent cable theft, and prolonged underinvestment in infrastructure, resulting in severely reduced transportation capacity for major bulk commodities such as iron ore and coal. South Africa's largest iron ore mine, Kumba, in its 2025 year-end financial report released in February 2026, indicated that its total finished product inventories reached as high as 7.5 million mt , increasing rather than decreasing compared to 6.9 million mt at the end of 2024. As railway transport capacity failed to match mine production capabilities, major South African iron ore producers were forced to accumulate large inventories at mine sites. To prevent inventory overflow, miners had to proactively lower production guidance. Although miners have been working to address transportation issues, the deep-rooted railway problems are difficult to resolve in the short term. Beyond 2030, there is also Mauritania's SNIM strategic growth blueprint. In the first phase (Horizon 1), the company plans to raise annual capacity to 45 million mt by 2031 through implementing lean production, equipment and technology upgrades, and joint development of new reserves. Of this, 20 million mt will be absorbed by SNIM's own wholly-owned capacity, while another 25 million mt will be achieved through attracting international capital to form joint ventures. Furthermore, SNIM has even set its sights on 2045 (Horizon 3), formulating a long-term goal of raising annual capacity to 80 million mt . In addition, there is the MIFOR project in the DRC. On March 26, 2026, the DRC signed a relevant memorandum of understanding with China, and the MIFOR project was listed as a flagship project with priority support. The mine is estimated to hold cumulative resources of 15 billion to 20 billion mt, with an average grade exceeding 60%. Its potential scale is considered to be approximately 2.5 times that of the Simandou project in Guinea. The first phase of the project is expected to cost $28.9 billion, involving the construction of a heavy-haul freight railway combined with Congo River shipping, ultimately connecting to the Banana deep-water port on the Atlantic coast. Initial annual production is expected to be 50 million mt, with a long-term goal of expanding to 300 million mt per year . All these projects are destined to make Africa an indispensable source of iron ore supply in the future. (Chart-6: Selected African Iron Ore Projects) IV. Global Steel Industry Chain Transformation: Will Africa, as a Hub of High-Grade Ore, Empower DRI Production? Notably, most of Africa's currently operating and planned iron ore projects have an average total iron grade (Fe) largely above 65% , with extremely low impurity content. This scarce high-grade ore is an ideal raw material for the direct reduced iron (DRI) process. As the DRI-EAF green steel route gains traction in Europe, the US, and China, future demand for iron ore with grades of 65% and above will surge exponentially. This will confer an exceptionally high "grade premium" on major iron ore projects including South Africa's Kumba, Guinea's Simandou, and other mines coming into production in the future. In the long run, the pricing benchmark for iron ore is inevitably shifting away from the traditional Platts 62% index, and African miners will gain bargaining leverage when renewing long-term agreements, thereby reshaping the global industry chain profit distribution landscape. In line with the global carbon neutrality trend, international investors, encouraged by local governments, are actively deploying high-value-added processing facilities, including DRI plants and high-grade pellet plants, aiming to fully leverage Africa's abundant high-grade iron ore resources and enormous energy potential for DRI production. Based on SMM's observations, approximately 200,000kt of DRI capacity is expected to emerge in Africa by 2030. The largest project among them is an 8.1 million mt DRI complex located in Libya, a joint venture between Turkish steel mill Tosyali and Libya's national steel company. (Chart-7: African DRI Projects) As China advances its "dual carbon" goals, the steelmaking industry is undergoing corresponding adjustments. China has set out a strategic blueprint for carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. The traditional high-carbon-emission long-process steelmaking route dominated by blast furnace-converter operations is facing extremely stringent capacity replacement policies and environmental protection regulations. Meanwhile, the global trade system is also accelerating the imposition of carbon costs — for example, the implementation of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) — compelling the global steel supply chain to accelerate its transition from the source toward a low-carbon or even zero-carbon "green steel" era. Under this irreversible transformation trend, the short-process route combining DRI with electric furnace (EAF) has become the most commercially feasible decarbonization pathway. To meet the surging global demand for green steel in the future, market forecasts indicate that by the 2030s, global DRI designed capacity will need to increase by hundreds of millions of metric tons. This dramatic expansion in production scale will profoundly reshape the global steel supply landscape. The share of traditional pig iron production will gradually decline, while low-carbon DRI supply will directly determine the competitiveness of major economies in the global green steel market. In particular, the "hydrogen metallurgy" technology, which uses green hydrogen to replace natural gas and coal for iron ore reduction, is widely recognized by the industry as the core to achieving ultimate zero-carbon steelmaking. (Chart-8: Reshaping of the Steel Industry Chain Under Green Transformation) Represented by world-class high-quality iron ore projects such as Simandou in Guinea, the gradual commissioning of these super mines is expected to inject over 100 million mt of high-grade iron ore supply into the global market annually, significantly alleviating the global shortage of DRI-grade ore. More critically, North Africa and West Africa possess solar and wind energy potential that is second to none globally, enabling large-scale green hydrogen production at extremely low costs locally. This perfect combination of "high-grade ore + affordable green hydrogen" has led multinational capital and steel giants to increasingly favor establishing DRI production lines directly on African soil, reducing iron ore locally into low-carbon Hot Briquetted Iron (HBI) that is convenient for transport, before shipping it to electric furnaces in Asia and Europe for smelting. As a result, Africa will formally transition from the old era to become an indispensable part of the green iron production chain.

March 27 News: Northern ports: South African high-grade ore was 36-37.9 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate was 43.5-44 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; Gabon ore was 47.3-47.9 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; 46% Australian lumps were 48-48.5 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday. South China ports: South African high-grade ore was 34.5-35 yuan/mtu, flat WoW from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate was 38.8-39.5 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; Gabon ore was 44-44.5 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; 46% Australian lumps were 45.2-45.7 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday.

According to the latest release from the General Administration of Customs, SMM statistics showed that China’s total manganese ore imports in February 2026 were 2.3064 million mt, down 33.00% MoM and up 3.24% YoY. Cumulative imports in January-February were 5.749 million mt, up 46.29% YoY from the same period last year. February imports from Australia were 413,100 mt, down 31.35% MoM; South Africa 990,400 mt, down 49.55% MoM; Gabon 375,100 mt, up 13.01% MoM; Ghana 270,400 mt, up 1.78% MoM; Brazil 99,700 mt, down 17.87% MoM; and Myanmar 49,900 mt, up 14.8% MoM.