[Silicon Metal Futures Center Shifted Higher with Increased Enterprise Shipments; Heavy Wait-and-See Sentiment in Polysilicon Market]: In the futures market, the most-traded contract trended stronger during the week, with the SI2609 contract center at 8700-8800 yuan/mt and the highest point touching above 8,900 yuan/mt. Driven by macro factors and news, futures rose, boosting silicon producers' shipment sentiment, and silicon enterprises' shipments to trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market increased. On the fundamentals side, silicon metal supply and demand were in tight balance in April, and the supply-demand structure is not expected to see major adjustments in May. Facing the pressure of increased supply during the rainy season in Sichuan and Yunnan from June to July, the market outlook leaned toward caution. On the cost side, raw material prices remained firm. With upside in silicon metal prices capped and downside supported by costs, the price fluctuation range was narrow.

Spot lithium carbonate prices fluctuated upward this week, with the price center further rising. The futures market performed strongly, with the most-traded LC2609 contract price range rising from 173,400-184,800 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 182,500-189,500 yuan/mt, up about 5% WoW, with open interest increasing significantly and bulls actively entering the market. Market transactions remained sluggish, with the psychological price level gap between upstream and downstream further widening. On the upstream lithium chemical plant side, quotes stayed high, willingness to sell spot orders was low, and the sentiment to hold prices firm was evident. On the downstream material plants side, purchases were mainly just-in-time procurement, with limited acceptance of high prices, and psychological purchase price levels concentrated around 170,000-175,000 yuan/mt, with only a few enterprises with rigid restocking needs willing to accept prices around 180,000 yuan/mt. Overall, market inquiries and transactions were relatively sluggish, presenting a stalemate pattern of "upstream holding prices firm and holding back from selling, downstream waiting and watching." Supply side, bullish and bearish factors were intertwined, with short-term disruptions coexisting with medium-term expectations. Bullish factors: continued disruptions from Jiangxi mine license renewals; Middle East geopolitical fluctuations pushing up diesel import costs, with some Australian mines' Q1 quarterly reports confirming cost increases; political instability in Mali raising market concerns over West African ore supply; spodumene concentrates prices continuing to strengthen, reinforcing the cost-support logic for non-integrated lithium chemical plants. Bearish factors: Zimbabwe Huayou announced successful shipment of lithium sulfate, potentially easing some short-term supply anxiety; April domestic lithium carbonate production pace remained generally stable, with salt lake operations maintaining steady production ramp-up; entering May, although Zimbabwe lithium concentrates exports remained restricted, relevant enterprises' raw material inventory could still ensure normal production for the month, with total May production expected to edge up about 3% MoM. Demand side expectations were positive, but actual boost effects still needed verification. Looking ahead, spot lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern in the short term. Supply side, the actual execution progress of Zimbabwe export quotas and the timing of Jiangxi mine license renewal shutdowns remain key variables; demand side, focus should be on May new energy auto sales data realization and the pace of LFP plant capacity expansion boosting raw material demand. Against the backdrop of unresolved supply-side constraints, cost support, and demand expectations resonating, lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend in Q2.

SMM Nickel News, April 30: Macro and market news: (1) The US Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, in line with market expectations, marking the third consecutive hold this year. Fed Chairman Powell said inflation triggered by tariffs is expected to pull back over the next two quarters. (2) US President Trump said on April 29 that the US and Iran were negotiating by phone, while emphasizing that Iran must clearly commit to completely abandoning nuclear weapons. He will continue the maritime blockade on Iran until Iran agrees to a deal that addresses US concerns over Iran's nuclear program. Spot market: On April 30, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 900 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,350 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel premiums ranged from -800-100 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract moved sideways during the session, closing at 150,540 yuan/mt in the morning session, down 0.02%. Indonesia's tightening quota policy continued to strengthen, the sulphur supply crisis intensified, MHP production was hampered, and sulphur prices continued to rise amid tight supply, providing strong cost support. Combined with recent news of production halts and production cuts at Indonesian smelters, nickel prices held up well. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 140,000-150,000 yuan/mt.

Around April 23, 2026, import and export data for cobalt and lithium battery industry chain products in March were released. Data showed that March spodumene imports rebounded significantly from February, hitting a new record high of 837,400 mt in physical content. Lithium carbonate side, China imported 29,974 mt of lithium carbonate in March, up 13% MoM and up 65% YoY.......SMM compiled the import and export data for battery materials as follows: Upstream Lithium Concentrates Customs data showed that March spodumene imports rebounded significantly from February, hitting a new record high of 837,400 mt in physical content. By source country: African ore arrivals increased notably — Nigeria imports reached 125,100 mt, up 63% MoM; Zimbabwe shipments from earlier periods arrived at ports in the month totaling 112,600 mt, up 61% MoM; Canada broke the zero-import situation in January-February with 58,600 mt arriving in March; while Australian ore volumes declined MoM due to shipping schedule impacts. According to SMM's screening and analysis, total port arrivals this month were equivalent to 81,000 mt LCE. Lithium concentrates accounted for 72% of the month's imports, down slightly compared to the same period last year, mainly due to the notable increase in South African raw ore port arrivals recently. Notably, driven by prices and local beneficiation plant development, Nigerian ore volumes increased significantly, with not only raw ore volumes rising markedly but also concentrates share increasing notably YoY. Source: China Customs, compiled by SMM Spodumene concentrates (CIF China) spot pricing side, according to SMM spot prices, March spodumene concentrates (CIF China) spot prices showed a V-shaped trend, dropping to a low of $2,028/mt at month-end, then rebounding to $2,313/mt at month-end, with a monthly average of $2,081.4/mt. According to SMM, in March, spodumene and lepidolite profit trends diverged, with structural cost differences among lithium chemicals enterprises becoming evident. Available spodumene volumes were tight, ore traders held back from selling, and inventory continued to be drawn down. Enterprises purchasing spodumene externally suffered losses on spot margins throughout the month, with non-integrated enterprises facing greater difficulties in hedging and procurement. Entering April, spodumene concentrates (CIF China) spot prices also showed a pattern of initial decline followed by recovery. Recently, spodumene concentrates prices continued to probe higher. As of April 27, spodumene concentrates (CIF China) spot prices rose to $2,507/mt, up $194/mt from $2,313/mt at end-March, an increase of 8.39%. According to SMM's recent research, driven by market expectations of improving future demand, speculative sentiment in the lithium carbonate futures market remained strong, pushing futures prices up. Lithium ore merchants showed increased willingness to sell, with pricing-against-futures prices staying high. Looking ahead, lithium chemical plant operating rates stay high, with demand for lithium ore continuing to climb. Meanwhile, Zimbabwe has suspended spodumene exports for nearly two months, leading to persistently tight available lithium ore supply in the market. Overall, spodumene prices are expected to hold up well. Lithium Carbonate According to customs data, China imported 29,974 mt of lithium carbonate in March, up 13% MoM and up 65% YoY. By source, the top 3 were Chile (18,000 mt, 61%), Argentina (8,292 mt, 28%), and Indonesia (2,100 mt, 7%). From January to March, China's cumulative lithium carbonate imports reached 83,000 mt, up 65% YoY cumulatively. China exported 448 mt of lithium carbonate in March, down 25% MoM and up 104% YoY. From January to March, China's cumulative lithium carbonate exports totaled 1,516 mt, up 46% YoY cumulatively. According to SMM spot quotes, lithium carbonate showed a volatile trend of first declining then rising in March. As of March 31, the average spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 163,000 yuan/mt, with a monthly average price of 156,700 yuan/mt. According to SMM analysis, spot lithium carbonate prices in China showed a significantly volatile upward trend in March, with the monthly average price up 5% MoM. Fundamentals-wise, supply side, production gradually recovered as maintenance ended, and lithium chemical plants showed increased willingness to sell spot orders at the relatively high level around 170,000 yuan/mt; demand side, downstream cathode material producers basically adopted a dip-buying strategy, with strong purchase willingness at price levels around 140,000 to 150,000 yuan/mt. As demand continued to improve, some enterprises engaged in large-scale restocking at low levels. In March, battery-grade spot lithium carbonate prices rose to 172,500 yuan/mt at the beginning of the month and pulled back to around 163,000 yuan/mt at month-end. Recently, battery-grade lithium carbonate spot quotes stayed high above 170,000 yuan. As of April 28, battery-grade lithium carbonate spot quotes were at 172,000-177,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 174,500 yuan/mt. According to SMM, in today's spot lithium carbonate market, as lithium carbonate prices declined, downstream purchase enthusiasm picked up, with some buyers' target prices basically around 170,000 to 175,000 yuan/mt; upstream spot order quotes remained at high levels. Overall, market inquiries and transactions were relatively active. Looking ahead, the supply side presents mixed signals: Huayou in Zimbabwe announced the successful shipment of lithium sulfate over the weekend, which may ease some supply anxiety in the short term; however, disruptions from mine license renewals in Jiangxi persisted, Middle East geopolitical fluctuations pushed up diesel costs, and some Australian mines confirmed cost increases in their Q1 quarterly reports. Although actual mining has not been affected yet, medium and long-term supply elasticity may be impacted. Demand side, LFP capacity release and the peak season for new car model deliveries in Q2 are expected to continue boosting lithium carbonate demand. Overall, cost support and demand expectations are resonating, and lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain on a relatively strong trend in Q2. Lithium Hydroxide According to customs data, in March 2026, China imported 6,111 mt of lithium hydroxide, up 66% MoM and up 200% YoY. Of this, 2,927 mt came from Indonesia, accounting for approximately 48% of imports, with another 40% from Australia and South Korea. In March, China exported 3,143 mt of lithium hydroxide, up 20% MoM and down 26% YoY, of which 2,059 mt were exported to South Korea and 278 mt to Japan. Battery Materials Ternary Cathode Material In March 2026, China's ternary cathode material (NCM and NCA combined) exports reached 21,900 mt, up 103% MoM and up 163% YoY. Of this, NCM exports were 20,900 mt, accounting for 96%. In terms of export destinations, South Korea was the largest importer of NCM, with March imports of 8,500 mt; Poland, Malaysia, and Japan ranked second, third, and fourth at 3,720 mt, 2,409 mt, and 2,363 mt respectively. In addition, Germany's imports saw significant growth compared to the same period last year. China's ternary cathode material exports hit a record high in March, mainly driven by the cancellation of China's 13% VAT export rebate policy for ternary cathode material effective April 1. Four leading battery cell manufacturers in Japan and South Korea placed orders in advance, boosting demand not only for their domestic plants but also for their battery cell production sites in Southeast Asia and Europe. Beyond the rebate policy impact, EV subsidy policies in Europe also fueled strong demand growth, driving up China's ternary cathode material exports. Among them, the Nordic countries led in EV penetration rate thanks to the most generous subsidies; the UK, France, and Germany continued to serve as important sources of NEV sales support. In contrast, US NEV sales declined notably in Q1, down nearly 30% YoY, significantly impacting Q1 orders for some ex-China battery cell manufacturers targeting the North American market. Looking ahead to Q2, Europe is expected to remain the largest source of incremental ex-China ternary cathode material demand. Despite some disruption from the tax rebate policy, as more battery cell manufacturers and ternary cathode producers plan to complete construction and commence production this year and next, the outlook for European market demand remains optimistic. LiPF6 According to China Customs data, in March 2026, China's cumulative LiPF6 exports totaled approximately 4,554 mt, up approximately 161% MoM, while cumulative imports were approximately 31 mt. Export side, China's LiPF6 exports in March 2026 were approximately 4,554 mt, up approximately 161% MoM from February and up approximately 188.8% YoY. Specifically, as the VAT rebate policy for LiPF6 exports was officially canceled starting April 1, 2026, enterprises rushed to export in advance in March, driving MoM increases in exports to multiple major destination countries. Among them, exports to Poland were 1,723.602 mt (up approximately 693.63% MoM), South Korea 1,099.429 mt (up approximately 184.26% MoM), Czech Republic 460.5 mt (up approximately 237.36% MoM), and Malaysia 249.346 mt (up approximately 141.39% MoM). However, exports to the US declined — 266.146 mt (down approximately 53.70% MoM). Artificial Graphite In March 2026, China's artificial graphite imports were 673 mt, up 0.6% MoM and down 34.1% YoY. Average import price in March 2026 was 61,696 yuan/mt, up 3.9% MoM and up 10.6% YoY. Data source: China Customs, SMM In March 2026, China's artificial graphite exports were 37,525 mt, up 6% MoM and down 16% YoY. Average export price in March 2026 was 9,866 yuan/mt, up 14.4% MoM and down 7% YoY. Flake Graphite In March 2026, China's flake graphite imports were 3,905 mt, up 11% MoM and up 45% YoY. Data source: China Customs, SMM In March 2026, China's flake graphite exports were 8,118 mt, up 35% MoM and up 65% YoY. Phosphate Ore According to customs data, China's phosphate ore imports in March 2026 were 182,000 mt. March imports rose 88.2% from February's 97,000 mt, up 144.4% YoY from 75,000 mt; March total import value was $14.552 million, up 74.6% MoM from February's $8.336 million. Unit price was $79.9/mt, down 7.2% significantly from February's $86.1/mt. In March, China's phosphate ore imports mainly came from Egypt and Pakistan, with imports of 170,000 mt and 12,000 mt respectively. Affected by factors related to the Strait of Hormuz, Jordanian phosphate ore failed to be imported, though imports from other regions filled the gap. Due to hindered transportation of high-priced Jordanian phosphate ore and lack of import volume support, March phosphate ore import unit price declined from February, pulling back to below $80/mt. Cobalt Cobalt Hydrometallurgy Intermediate Products In March 2026, China's cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products imports were approximately 1,690 mt in physical content, down 26% MoM and down 97% YoY. Among them, imports from DRC were approximately 1,668 mt in physical content, up 10% MoM and down 97% YoY. In March 2026, the average import price of China's cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products was $16,730/mt in physical content, up 2.92% MoM. It was learned that cobalt intermediate products export volume from DRC increased notably in March. If the government maintains this efficient approval pace going forward, quotas for Q4 2025 and Q1/Q2 2026 will most likely be exported within the stipulated timeframe, reducing the probability of further delays. However, shipping in Africa is currently tight, with only a few miners completing small-batch vessel bookings in April. Based on a 1-2 month shipping time from South Africa to China, these intermediate products are expected to arrive at port in May-June, while intermediate products from other miners are not expected to arrive until around July. Unwrought Cobalt In March 2026, China's unwrought cobalt imports were approximately 961 mt, down 44% MoM and up 83% YoY. March imports remained at a relatively high level, mainly due to continued arrivals of export orders placed during the import window opening from late December 2025 to mid-January 2026. On average import price, China's unwrought cobalt average import price in March 2026 was $50,346/mt, up 10% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to March 2026 totaled 4,582 mt, up 206% YoY cumulatively. It was learned that as the import window gradually closed after mid-to-late January 2026, overseas traders' export willingness weakened, and refined cobalt imports in April may continue to decline MoM. Exports, China's unwrought cobalt exports in March 2026 were approximately 413 mt, up 32% MoM and down 69% YoY. By country, China's exports to the US rose slightly, with 280 mt exported to the US in March, up 13% MoM. Average export price, China's average export price of unwrought cobalt in March 2026 was $51,596/mt, down 3% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to March 2026 totaled 1,574 mt, down 52% YoY cumulatively.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Stainless Steel Futures Surged and Spot Prices Remained Firm, Trading Sluggish as Labour Day Holiday Approached On April 29, SMM reported that SS futures fluctuated upward strongly. Driven by the continued strengthening of SHFE nickel, SS futures maintained a strong trend. As of the morning close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 15,505 yuan/mt. Spot market side, SS futures continued to fluctuate at highs, boosting stainless steel traders' confidence. Spot offers were generally at relatively high levels, with low-priced resources hard to find. Although the holiday was approaching and rapid price increases made downstream buyers cautious and wait-and-see, with most making just-in-time procurement, trading was slightly sluggish. However, supported by the strong performance of SS futures, spot prices were unlikely to pull back. The most-traded SS contract strengthened and tested higher levels. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 15,475 yuan/mt, up 55 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged from -5 to 195 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi remained flat; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi rose 50 yuan/mt and in Foshan rose 125 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi held steady; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi offers rose 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. Currently, the stainless steel market was driven higher by the surge in SS futures, with spot offers strengthening in tandem and rising to highs not seen since 2023. However, the short-term price increase was relatively rapid and had limited correlation with changes in stainless steel fundamentals, and end-user acceptance remained limited...

SMM Nickel News, April 29: Macro and Market News: (1) The US prohibited domestic individuals or entities from paying Strait of Hormuz transit fees to Iran, and non-US individuals or entities paying Strait of Hormuz safe passage fees to Iran would also face significant sanctions risks. (2) The Tariff Commission of the State Council issued an announcement that from May 1, 2026 to April 30, 2028, zero tariffs in the form of preferential tax rates will be applied to 20 African countries that have established diplomatic relations with China and are not classified as least developed countries. Spot Market: On April 29, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 3,350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,300 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -800 to 0 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract surged in the morning session before pulling back slightly, closing at 150,810 yuan/mt in the morning session, up 1.37%. Indonesia's tightening quota policies continued to strengthen, the sulfur supply crisis intensified, MHP production was hampered, and sulfur prices continued to rise amid tight supply, providing strong cost support. Combined with recent news of production halts and production cuts at Indonesian smelters, nickel prices held up well. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract price is expected to trade in the range of 140,000-150,000 yuan/mt.

First, multi-material indexation has become normal practice in domestic cell pricing. However, passing these costs through to project owners is far from smooth. Second, the adjustment cycle in overseas markets is shortening. Yet even a lithium-carbonate-only linkage faces resistance at the owner level. Third, cost pressure is concentrating heavily at the integration stage.

SMM Nickel News, April 28: Macro and market news: (1) On April 27, Moody's Investors Service released a report deciding to maintain China's sovereign credit rating at "A1" and upgraded the outlook to "stable." This rating reflects Moody's high recognition of the strong resilience demonstrated by China's macroeconomic and fiscal strength in the face of external shocks, as well as the new momentum and new progress in China's high-quality economic development. (2) Iranian Foreign Minister: The US requested negotiations, and Iran is considering it. US media reported that Iran proposed a deal to the US to reopen the strait but postponed nuclear talks. Trump was skeptical of Iran's proposal but did not outright reject it. Spot market: On April 28, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 1,800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,350 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; premiums for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -1,000 to 0 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract pulled back slightly during the session before rallying again, closing at 149,110 yuan/mt in the morning session, up 0.58%. Indonesia's tightening quota policies continued to intensify, the sulfur supply crisis worsened, MHP production was hampered, and sulfur prices continued to rise amid tight supply, providing strong cost support. Combined with the recent fermentation of news about production halts and production cuts at Indonesian smelters, nickel prices held up well. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 140,000-150,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes: Polysilicon Prices Generally Stable, Module Production Schedules Expected to Rise] Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 34.1-36.5 yuan/kg. Weekend market prices remained temporarily stable. In the earlier period, frequent industry meetings were held, with results presenting a mix of bearish and bullish signals. Parties held divergent views, wait-and-see sentiment increased, and prices remained temporarily stable.

SMM April 24 News: [SMM] On April 24, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was quoted at 24,530 yuan/mt, down 40, at a discount of 345 to the current-month contract, unchanged (unit: yuan/mt). Aluminum prices continued to edge down today, with spot and futures markets generally in the doldrums and trading within a range. Futures prices and the spot-futures price spread weakened in tandem, and the price spread between northern and southern regions widened further, creating arbitrage opportunities for cross-regional cargo transfers. Slight destocking signs emerged on the inventory side, laying the groundwork for future market movements. Under the combined influence of multiple factors, holders' willingness to hold prices firm gradually strengthened, hold-back-from-selling sentiment heated up, and the room for spot price concessions narrowed, with only slight downward adjustments in quoted prices. Mainstream discounts were maintained at -20 to 0 yuan/mt, and pressure on cargo circulation eased notably. On the demand side, marginal recovery was observed as downstream enterprises took advantage of low spot prices to stockpile ahead of the holiday, purchasing in batches as needed, with rigid demand released steadily. In the trading segment, there was concurrent purchasing demand to complete current-month input invoices and fulfill long-term contract orders, and the overall market transaction atmosphere improved steadily. Mainstream transaction prices today were concentrated in the range of SHFE aluminum 05 contract plus -365 yuan/mt to SHFE aluminum 05 contract plus -325 yuan/mt.