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SMM data shows that this week (January 26-30, 2026), as the Chinese New Year holiday approached, the most-traded stainless steel contract (SS2603) saw a significant pullback due to risk-averse capital exiting. By January 30, the contract price pulled back to 14,160 yuan/mt, down 560 yuan/mt (-3.80%) from the closing price of 14,720 yuan/mt on the previous Friday. At the beginning of the week, the futures tried to maintain a high level, but as the holiday neared, the bulls' willingness to take profits increased, coupled with pressure from bears, leading to a substantial decrease in open interest. The concentrated withdrawal of funds caused the futures to quickly give up earlier gains, with the price center returning to a rational range. From a macro perspective, the policy tone remained loose, but had limited impact on the pre-holiday market. Overseas, the US Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 3.5-3.75% in its January meeting, and Powell stated that policies would be adjusted based on data, and if tariff inflation eases, there could be relaxation, which was in line with market expectations. Domestically, PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng clearly stated that a moderately loose monetary policy would be implemented in 2026, with room for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts; previously, the central bank conducted 900 billion yuan worth of one-year MLF operations to maintain ample liquidity. Despite a generally warm macro environment, the approach of the long holiday led to a dominant risk-averse sentiment, guiding short-term fund flows, and the macro tailwinds failed to prevent the pre-holiday capital withdrawal. Fundamentally, the spot market has largely entered a "closed" state, with inventory showing a slight rebound. SMM's latest data indicates that social inventory rose to 853,000 mt this week, an increase of about 9,000 mt from 844,100 mt last week, indicating a small inventory buildup. In terms of spot transactions, pre-holiday stockpiling demand from downstream sectors was not evident, and trading remained sluggish; by January 30, most enterprises had stopped taking orders, and traders were gradually closing, entering a "price without market" holiday mode. High prices suppressed pre-holiday stockpiling enthusiasm, and the lack of demand made it difficult for spot prices to support the previous high futures premium. As the futures pulled back, the spot-futures price spread contradiction slightly eased. The cost side still showed strong resilience, forming a stark contrast with the futures pullback. By January 30, the price of high-grade NPI continued to rise to 1,054 yuan/mtu, up another 11.5 yuan from the previous week; high-carbon ferrochrome was raised to 8,550 yuan/mt (50% metal content). The uncertainty of Indonesia's ore quota policy continued to support raw material prices, keeping steel mill production costs high. Despite a significant pullback in the futures, spot raw materials did not loosen, meaning that upon return after the holiday, the high cost line will remain the strongest bottom support for stainless steel. In summary, this week's market performance was typical of "pre-holiday capital risk aversion" and "profit-taking."Against the backdrop of a closed spot market and stagnant demand, funds opted to take profits, leading to a significant correction in futures. However, the continuous rise in NPI prices has capped the deep downside room for valuations, and while the inventory of 853,000 mt saw a slight increase, overall pressure remains manageable. Looking ahead to the post-holiday market, the focus of contention will shift from "fund sentiment" to "the race between costs and inventory buildup." Attention should be paid to whether the extent of inventory accumulation during the Chinese New Year exceeds expectations, as well as the downstream acceptance of high-cost pricing after the holiday. In the initial post-holiday period, futures are expected to seek stabilization supported by costs, while vigilance is warranted against volatility risks arising from inventory changes.

SMM Alumina Morning Comment Jan. 23 Futures: The most-traded alumina a2605 futures contract opened at 2,717 yuan/mt in the night session, hit a high of 2,741 yuan/mt, touched a low of 2,708 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 2,729 yuan/mt, up 12 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest increased by 7,281 lots to 496,000 lots, indicating cautious market sentiment. Technically, the closing price above the MA5 (2,704.4) provided some upward momentum, but remained below the MA10 (2,750.80) and MA30 (2,739.23), suggesting continued resistance near the short-term structural top. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator's "death cross" persisted, with the DEA (-5.74) crossing above the DIF (-15.40), signaling increased downward momentum, and the histogram reading was -19.32. Alumina futures are expected to remain in the doldrums in the near term. Industry Developments: 1) SMM data showed that, as of Thursday this week, bauxite inventory at alumina refineries decreased by 94,400 mt WoW. 2) According to SMM data, as of Thursday this week, China's total metallurgical-grade alumina capacity reached 110.32 million mt/year, with operating capacity at 87.12 million mt/year. The national alumina operating rate fell 1.85 percentage points WoW to 79.97%, as domestic alumina refineries continued to operate at high levels. 3) Overseas news reported that on the local time of January 21, 2026, a collapse occurred at a mechanized mine in the Doké mining area, Siguiri Province, Guinea, resulting in the deaths of 6 miners. The accident happened at the border between the Sala and Bembéta districts, where the mine pit wall suddenly collapsed, preventing timely evacuation of personnel on site. The cause is still under investigation. According to SMM, Guinea's mineral distribution is clearly defined, with "bauxite in the west and gold in the east." Specifically: Bauxite Belt: Concentrated in the western coastal regions of Boké, Kindia, and Fria. This is the core production area for the Winning Consortium (SMB), Alcoa (CBG), and Rusal. Gold Belt: Siguiri is located in northeastern Guinea (Upper Guinea region), approximately 800 km from the core bauxite mining area of Boké. This gold mine accident has not yet affected production in Guinea's core bauxite mining areas. Ore Side: As of January 22, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was $65.85/mt, flat from the previous day. The SMM Guinea FOB average was $41/mt, flat from the previous day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average was $64/mt, flat from the previous day. The SMM Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF average was $64/mt, flat from the previous day. The SMM Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF average was $58/mt, down $1/mt from the previous day. The SMM Malaysia bauxite CIF average was $47/mt, flat from the previous day. The SMM Malaysia bauxite CIF (washed) average was $62.5/mt, flat from the previous day. The SMM Ghana bauxite CIF price was $75/mt, flat from the previous day. The SMM bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was $75/mt, flat from last Friday. Spot prices: As of January 22, 2025, the SMM alumina index was reported at 2,632.78 yuan/mt, down 1.16 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shandong alumina index was reported at 2,557.14 yuan/mt, down 1.25 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Henan alumina index was reported at 2,629.72 yuan/mt, down 1.6 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shanxi alumina index was reported at 2,615.36 yuan/mt, down 1.46 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guizhou alumina index was reported at 2,716.39 yuan/mt, down 1.26 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guangxi alumina index was reported at 2,703.16 yuan/mt, down 1.15 yuan/mt MoM. Spot-futures price spread report: According to SMM data, on January 22, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 79.22 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30. Warrant report: On January 21, the total registered volume of alumina warrants increased by 7,513 mt from the previous trading day to 126,600 mt. The total registered volume of alumina warrants in Shandong remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 7,796 mt, in Henan remained unchanged at 0 mt, in Guangxi remained unchanged at 5,103 mt, in Gansu remained unchanged at 3,607 mt, and in Xinjiang increased by 7,513 mt from the previous trading day to 110,000 mt. Overseas market: As of January 22, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $304/mt, the ocean freight rate was $19.4/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.98. This price translates to a selling price of about 2,630.86 yuan/mt at mainstream domestic ports, slightly lower than the SMM alumina index price by 1.92 yuan/mt. According to SMM model calculations, the import window is open. Summary: Currently, domestic alumina market inventory saw a slight decrease MoM, but the overall oversupply situation remains unchanged. Due to environmental protection-related controls and operational pressures, some alumina refineries in north China underwent maintenance, leading to a pullback in the industry operating rate and a weekly production decrease of 39,000 mt. Inventory side, in-factory inventory of alumina refineries dropped by 50,000 mt, while raw material inventory at aluminum enterprises edged down by 2,000 mt. Due to previous maintenance leading to a decline in operational rates, alumina refineries are still primarily focused on fulfilling long-term contract orders, necessitating continuous consumption of inventory to ensure downstream supply, which promotes the reduction of plant inventories. Aluminum enterprises made limited spot purchases recently and maintained normal production consumption, resulting in a slight decrease in raw material inventory. Additionally, in-transit and platform inventories—mainly comprising goods destined for Xinjiang futures delivery warehouses and aluminum smelters—increased by approximately 31,000 mt. Overall, although alumina inventories showed a slight destocking this week, reversing the previous trend of continuous inventory buildup, current overall industry inventories remain high. Going forward, attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance at alumina enterprises and the recovery progress of previous maintenance activities. Alumina inventories are expected to continue a slight destocking trend next week. [Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.]

During yesterday's night session, the most-traded NYMEX platinum and palladium contracts experienced volatile corrections. The most-traded platinum 2601 contract closed at $1,672.9 per ounce, down 1.62%, while the most-traded palladium 2603 contract ended at $1,507.0 per ounce, down 2.35%. Recent precious metal price movements have primarily revolved around expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, spot market delivery squeezes, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Today, the FOMC cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.5–3.75% as expected, and decided that starting from 12.12, the Fed would purchase short-term Treasury bonds to maintain reserve levels in the system (RMP). The purchase scale is expected to reach $40 billion in the first month and remain at relatively high levels in the following months.

During the afternoon session on December 4, 2025, the SHFE tin futures market continued its overnight strength. The most-traded contract, tin2601, fluctuated at highs during the session and closed at 318,790 yuan/mt at midday, up 9,450 yuan from the previous session's settlement price, a gain of 3.05%. This marks the fifth consecutive trading day the price has held above the key 300,000 yuan/mt level, reaching a new high since May 2022. Trading was active during the session, with noticeable capital inflows. Internationally, tin prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) also strengthened. The LME tin three-month futures contract surged 4.92% overnight, closing at $40,750/mt, after hitting a session high of $40,780/mt, with gains exceeding 4.4% at one point. The price spread between domestic and overseas markets remained stable, reflecting consistent sentiment regarding global supply chain tightness. The current tin price rally is driven by both macro and fundamental factors. From a macro perspective, the US ADP employment report for November unexpectedly showed a decline of 32,000 jobs, the largest drop in two and a half years. This pushed market expectations for a December interest rate cut by the US Fed to nearly 90%, while the US dollar index fell to a low of 98.8, boosting dollar-denominated commodities broadly. Domestically, as the window for key policy meetings approaches, expectations for growth stabilization are heating up, supporting sentiment towards risk assets. On the supply and demand side, escalating geopolitical conflicts in eastern DRC continue to disrupt logistics routes and labor supply in mining areas. Slow progress in production resumptions at tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State, coupled with tightening export policies in Indonesia, further exacerbates multiple shocks to the global tin ore supply system. Demand side, the picture is mixed: demand from the semiconductor and AI industry chains provides solid support, but high tin prices are dampening restocking willingness in traditional sectors. Spot trades remain sluggish, characterized by high listed prices but thin actual transactions. Looking ahead to the afternoon session, the tight supply-demand balance and interest rate cut expectations are expected to continue supporting tin prices to hold up well. The intraday fluctuation range for the most-traded contract is projected between 313,000 yuan/mt and 323,000 yuan/mt.

SMM November 20 News: Nickel sulphate prices dropped slightly this week, while cobalt sulphate prices rose slightly, and lithium carbonate prices continued to rise significantly. LFP black mass prices per % lithium rose this week following the increase in lithium chemicals prices. Although it was not yet the month-end or month-beginning period for just-in-time procurement, after lithium carbonate futures rose sharply in the short term due to capital and supply-demand factors, market expectations for subsequent prices were optimistic. This led to advance purchases of LFP black mass, significantly boosting market transaction activity. Under a balanced supply-demand situation for LFP black mass in the market, black mass prices basically rose with lithium chemicals prices. Taking LFP pole piece black mass as an example, current prices were 3,450-3,700 yuan/mtu, up significantly MoM. For ternary black mass, the nickel and cobalt payables for ternary pole piece black mass were 75-77%, basically flat WoW, while lithium payables were 72.5-75%, up slightly MoM. Currently, profitability in the recycling sector this year recovered as supply eased and salt prices recovered.   SMM New Energy Research Team Wang Cong 021-51666838 Ma Rui 021-51595780 Feng Disheng 021-51666714 Lyu Yanlin 021-20707875 Zhou Zhicheng 021-51666711

September 18 news: The SM2601 contract opened at 5,970 yuan/mt and closed at 5,970 yuan/mt, up 0.24%. The highest price of the day was 6,026 yuan/mt, and the lowest price was 5,922 yuan/mt. Trading volume was 246,049 lots, and open interest was 335,397 lots. Cost side, the manganese ore market remained firm, with strong cost support. Supply side, futures fluctuated this week, with prices higher than in the previous period, boosting sentiment in both the futures and spot markets. However, due to procurement negotiations with HBIS and the delayed pricing announcement, the wait-and-see sentiment in the market has not diminished. Current SiMn market offers remain hesitant, awaiting the final pricing guidance from HBIS.

August 29 (SMM) - The SM2601 contract opened at 5,822 yuan/mt and closed at 5,792 yuan/mt, down 0.45%. The highest and lowest prices during the daytime session were 5,822 yuan/mt and 5,748 yuan/mt, respectively. The trading volume stood at 207,581 lots, with open interest at 325,851 lots. The futures were in the doldrums today, while spot SiMn alloy prices edged down. Cost side, manganese ore and coke prices remained at a relatively high level, providing cost support. In terms of supply, SiMn alloy producers adopted a produce-based-on-sales approach, resulting in relatively small inventory pressure by month-end and strong reluctance to sell at low prices. Demand side, east China mainly quoted around 5,950 yuan/mt on an accepted and tax-included delivery basis, down about 150 yuan/mt from mainstream steel tenders, prompting buyers to drive down purchasing prices. The current SiMn market is in the doldrums.

This week, stainless steel spot prices rose slightly, but with the decline in production costs, the extent of the stainless steel mills' inverted margins narrowed, though they remained inverted. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on the raw material prices of the day, the cash cost fell by 137.31 yuan/mt this week, with the loss ratio reaching 3.6%. If calculated based on the cost of raw material inventory, although the cash cost fell by 140.73 yuan/mt, the loss ratio remained at 1.76%. In terms of nickel raw material costs, this week, the price of high-grade NPI continued to rise strongly. High-grade NPI smelters still faced the situation of inverted cost-price margins, so the price of high-grade NPI remained firmly supported by costs. However, nickel ore prices pulled back further, and the cost of nickel raw materials for integrated stainless steel mills producing their own nickel iron significantly declined. Recently, with the strengthening of stainless steel prices and the failure of stainless steel mills to meet production cut expectations within the month, it is expected that production may further increase in August, and high-grade NPI producers generally hold a bullish attitude. As of Friday, the price of high-grade NPI with 10-12% grade had risen by a cumulative 2.5 yuan/mtu, ending at 912 yuan/mtu. In the stainless steel scrap market, as the price of finished stainless steel products rose further, the supply of stainless steel scrap was already tight. However, despite the continued strong performance of stainless steel scrap prices, it remained economically inferior compared to high-grade NPI. As of Friday, the price of 304 off-cuts in east China held steady, with the latest quotation reaching 9,650 yuan/mt. In terms of chrome raw material costs, despite TISCO and Tsingshan successively announcing the August high-carbon ferrochrome steel tender prices last week, which were down by 100-200 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM from the previous month, the prices were still higher than the current retail prices, and the decline in steel tenders did not meet expectations. In addition, the cost of chrome ore arriving at ports has risen recently. Against the backdrop of high production schedules for ferrochrome, the retail supply of chrome ore from traders has tightened. Meanwhile, coke prices continued to climb driven by macro tailwinds, leading to an overall increase in ferrochrome costs and a tentative rise in market retail quotations. Currently, ferrochrome producers still maintain a certain level of profitability, with high production enthusiasm, and the previous supply gap has been partially filled. Coupled with the recent strengthening of the stainless steel market driven by macro policies, its subsequent sustainability remains uncertain, and the market generally holds a cautious wait-and-see attitude, which to some extent restricts the further rise in ferrochrome prices. As of Friday, the price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia rose by 50 yuan/mt (50% metal content) this week, with the latest quotation reaching 7,900 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

On August 1st: The SM2509 contract opened at 5982 yuan/mt and closed at 5962 yuan/mt, with a decline of 0.43%. The daily high was 6014 yuan/mt and the low was 5938 yuan/mt. Trading volume was 358,667 lots, and open interest was 271,263 lots. Today, the futures market showed a consolidation trend with a narrowed overall decline and relatively stable market sentiment. On the raw material side, the previous upward momentum has eased, and the rally has weakened. Affected by this, the spot price of SiMn has dropped back slightly, and it is expected that the price will continue to maintain a fluctuating trend in the future market.

According to SMM data, the most-traded SS contract showed a strengthening and upward trend this week. As of 10:30 on August 1, the SS2509 contract was quoted at 12,855 yuan/mt, down 85 yuan/mt WoW. From a macro perspective, the consensus reached during the third round of high-level economic and trade talks between China and the US held in Stockholm, Sweden, from July 28 to 29, saw both sides agreeing to extend the suspended tariff measures for another 90 days, without resolving core differences. The US Fed maintained interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% for the fifth consecutive time. Powell's stance was hawkish, emphasizing that inflation risks outweighed employment goals, and he did not provide guidance on an interest rate cut in September, stating that "the current policy stance is favorable" and that more data was needed to support adjustments. The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee clarified the deepening of the "anti-rat race" policy: to regulate low-price and disorderly competition in accordance with the law, and advance capacity governance in key industries (such as steel and PV), supporting expectations for supply-side reform of industrial products. On the fundamental side, stainless steel spot prices rose slightly this week. Recently, driven by macro tailwinds, the stainless steel market saw an increase in retail quotations, moving away from the five-year low, with market confidence restored and transactions improving compared to the previous period. Social inventory of stainless steel completed four consecutive weeks of decline. However, the market remains in the traditional consumption off-season, with transaction volumes still strongly influenced by changes in the futures market. In the absence of further macro tailwinds recently, the SS futures market struggled to rise, repeatedly failing to stabilize above 13,000 yuan/mt. There is still a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and subsequent developments will depend on the introduction of further policies and the recovery of demand.

July 30 News: The SM2509 contract opened at 6,356 yuan/mt and closed at 6,116 yuan/mt, down 0.42%. The daily high was 6,392 yuan/mt and the low was 6,082 yuan/mt. Trading volume reached 728,699 lots, and open interest stood at 334,179 lots. Cost side, the manganese ore market has continued to strengthen recently, with offers gradually rising. Traders have shown low willingness to sell at low prices, and various types of manganese ore have seen varying degrees of increase. At the beginning of this week, the average price of manganese ore rose by 0.5 yuan/mtu. Today, futures fluctuated downward but remained above the 6,000 yuan/mt level, and the reluctance to budge on prices in the SiMn market persisted. It is expected that SiMn prices will remain firm in the short term.

July 28 News: The SM2509 contract opened at 5850 and closed at 6028 yuan/mt, down 2.96%. The daily high was 6280 yuan/mt and the low was 5800 yuan/mt. Trading volume was 1,247,227 lots and open interest was 353,406 lots. On the raw material side, manganese ore prices remained high, providing strong cost support. Last Friday, the futures market for SiMn hit the daily limit up. It was learned that a seminar was held by top-tier enterprises in the manganese industry, and participating enterprises had reached a preliminary consensus on the news of achieving a 40% reduction in energy consumption and emissions, which directly contributed to the SiMn futures hitting the daily limit up. At the beginning of the week, most SiMn producers held back from selling. Future price movements will depend on the progress of the meeting's implementation and the futures market trend.

SMM July 25 News: This week, the Shanghai spot premium continued to decline, with the weekly average price dropping by nearly 40 yuan/mt WoW. As of Friday this week, the premium for ordinary domestic brands against the 2508 contract was 50 yuan/mt, while the premium for the high-priced brand Shuangyan against the 2508 contract was 80 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the week, the futures market rose significantly, causing downstream buyers to remain cautious and continue to wait and see. With poor spot cargo sales, spot premiums were adjusted downwards consecutively. However, under low premiums, traders increased their purchases, and some traders' sentiment to raise prices resurfaced. In the second half of the week, spot premiums stabilized and fluctuated, and it is expected that premiums will remain weak next week.

July 23 News: As of Wednesday this week, the price of SiMn alloy 65/17 (cash) in the northern market was 5,600-5,700 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from Wednesday last week; in the southern market, it was 5,625-5,725 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from Wednesday last week. Driven by the futures market of the ferrous metals series, the recent futures market of manganese-silicon has been fluctuating around 6,000 yuan/mt, with high market sentiment. The recent rise in coking coal and manganese ore prices has strengthened cost support. Supported by these two factors, northern factories have maintained firm quotes, with high-position hedging observed and moderate profit margins. Southern factories remain cautious about the futures market's impact on spot prices, with reduced losses and limited profit margins. Overall, the spot price of SiMn has shown an upward trend.

July 23rd News: The SM2509 contract opened at 6044 yuan/mt and closed at 5938 yuan/mt, down by 0.37%. The daily high was 6070 yuan/mt and the low was 5842 yuan/mt. Trading volume was 410,438 lots, and open interest was 333,953 lots. Driven by the ferrous metals series futures market, the manganese-silicon futures market has been oscillating around 6000 yuan/mt recently, with high market sentiment. Recently, the cost support for SiMn has been strong, and the SiMn futures market has been fluctuating at highs. With these two favorable factors, the spot price of SiMn has shown an upward trend.