This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. The main logic during the week remained weakening cost support. On Tuesday, Iran proposed charging transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump made conciliatory remarks, saying that “even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, he would still be willing to end military action against Iran.” Market expectations for tighter crude oil supply weakened, and declines in the energy sector dragged down the coal sector, weakening the cost-side logic. During the week, inventories of the five major steel products continued to decline, but apparent demand remained at a low level for the same period in previous years, providing limited fundamental-driven momentum to futures. In the spot market, purchasing interest was average, mainly focused on restocking at low prices. Spot prices were relatively firm, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

On April 2, 2026, the White House ushered US steel trade policy into "Version 2.0." This strategic shift goes beyond simple tariff hikes. It uses full-value taxation and melt-and-pour traceability to block low-end imported raw materials, while applying structural tariff reductions to finished products to ease manufacturing inflation. Ultimately, this two-pronged approach aims to forcibly bring the global supply chain back to domestic US steel production.

SMM News, April 3: LME lead opened at $1,904.5/mt this week. At the beginning of the week, amid disruptions from geopolitical tensions and a stronger US dollar, LME lead swung wildly within the range of $1,892.5-1,917/mt, hitting a low of $1,892.5/mt during the period. Mid-week, the market expected geopolitical tensions to ease, and coupled with support from the non-ferrous metals sector, lead prices fluctuated upward and climbed to a high of $1,944/mt. Toward the end of the week, geopolitical tensions flared up again, and together with profit-taking by bulls, LME lead retreated from highs and consolidated. Supported by the strength of SHFE lead, its losses narrowed, and it finally closed at $1,934.5/mt, up $31.5 from the beginning of the week, or 1.66%. The market was closed on Friday for Good Friday. The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,535 yuan/mt this week. In early trading, lead prices edged down and fell to a low of 16,415 yuan/mt, then moved sideways within the range of 16,430-16,530 yuan/mt. Mid-week, bullish funds pushed lead prices higher and kept them hovering at highs, with prices touching a high of 16,810 yuan/mt by the close. It finally closed at 16,785 yuan/mt, up 230 yuan WoW, or 1.39%. > Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2605 contract opened at 84,660 yuan/mt, touched a low of 84,450 yuan/mt in early trading, and then its center fluctuated upward. After the daytime session opened, it hit a high of 85,820 yuan/mt, then moved sideways, and finally closed at 85,180 yuan/mt, down 0.05%. Open interest stood at 6,404 lots, down 38 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 3,654 lots, down 854 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, the number of initial jobless claims in the US pulled back last week, and the labour market remained generally stable. In addition, uncertainty still surrounded the geopolitical situation in Iran, and related statements failed to ease market risk-off sentiment. Fundamentally, on the supply side, imported cargoes have continued to arrive at ports recently, and overall spot circulation remained relatively ample. On the demand side, downstream enterprises still showed limited acceptance of current price levels, and overall just-in-time procurement remained the main approach. The SHFE copper 2605 contract closed at 96,250 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2605 contract price of 85,180 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 96,253 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2605 contract and BC copper was -3 yuan/mt, showing an inverted spread.

The gold price set a technical signal last week while providing fresh fuel for the debate over its future direction.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, coking coal costs for coke producers declined somewhat, and with the first round of coke price increases now fully implemented, losses at coke producers narrowed significantly, boosting production enthusiasm. Coke supply increased steadily, while downstream demand remained moderate, shipments were smooth, and producers' own inventory continued to decline. Demand side, steel mill blast furnaces gradually resumed production, and daily average hot metal production continued to increase, driving up rigid demand for coke. However, steel mills have recently seen good coke arrivals, with most mills' coke inventory at mid-range levels and overall procurement sentiment remaining average. In summary, coke market fundamentals have shifted toward looser supply and demand, and coupled with weaker recent cost support for coke, the coke market may remain temporarily stable in the short term, with further price increases facing greater difficulty.

[SMM Nickel Flash] Hanrui Cobalt Planned to Invest an Additional $108 million in Its Indonesian High-Grade Nickel Matte Project, Raising Total Investment to $351 million Hanrui Cobalt announced on March 27 that its board of directors had approved a proposal to increase the total investment in the fundraising project and adjust its internal investment structure. According to the announcement, the company planned to use $107.8905 million (approximately 745 million yuan) in its own and self-raised funds to increase the total investment in the "20,000 mt/year Nickel Metal Content Oxygen-Enriched Continuous Converting High-Grade Nickel Matte Project" from $243.2069 million to $351.0974 million (approximately 2.423 billion yuan), representing an increase of 44.36%.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Fluctuated Upward, Spot Stainless Steel Trading Sluggish Ahead of Qingming Festival SMM News on April 3: SS futures showed an upward fluctuation trend. SHFE nickel drove SS futures to stop falling and strengthen, closing at 14,235 yuan/mt as of the midday close. Spot market, although SS futures stopped falling and rebounded, the overall gains were limited, providing no obvious boost to the spot market; coupled with the approaching Qingming Festival holiday, overall market trading sentiment was sluggish, and traders' quotes were largely stable. The most-traded SS futures contract stopped falling and strengthened. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,150 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 270-470 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi was unchanged; for cold-rolled burr-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi was unchanged, and the average price in Foshan was largely stable; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were unchanged; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi quotes were unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were largely stable. The stainless steel market is currently in the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April," and the fundamental downstream demand improved compared with the previous period. End-user procurement continued at a pace based on rigid demand, and overall trading volume was sufficient to support the market's basic vitality. However, affected by macro news disruptions and fluctuations in futures, downstream end-user clients still maintained a wait-and-see sentiment, showing no willingness to stockpile, and transactions fluctuated with changes in the news flow. Futures, the Iran geopolitical conflict is difficult to resolve in the short term, and uncertainty in macro news continues to cause disruptions...

Recently, the Binhe Haoyu 100MW/200MWh independent energy storage station in Zhucheng completed acceptance and entered commercial operation. The project was invested in by an energy storage industry fund jointly initiated by Corun, CALB, and Kaibo Capital. It was jointly developed by members of the large energy storage ecosystem consortium, including Corun, CALC, Goxia Technology, Duanrui Technology, and Star Energy New Energy. The station adopts a hybrid energy storage technology route combining "lithium iron phosphate + all-vanadium redox flow batteries," which can meet the grid's full-time-scale regulation needs while significantly reducing the lifecycle levelized cost of energy, enhancing overall system economy and safety, and maximizing operational efficiency and economic benefits.

At the start of this week, the market still repeatedly traded around the Middle East situation, oil prices, and US Fed expectations. As the Iran conflict continued to escalate, crude oil stayed elevated, the US dollar held up well, and copper prices were overall under pressure. Although the market briefly traded expectations that the US might contain further escalation, lifting risk appetite for a short time, Powell said the current policy stance remained appropriate to “wait and see,” and with the war’s disruption to inflation and growth not yet fading, macro sentiment quickly turned cautious again. Overall, the macro theme changed relatively little this week, with geopolitical risks still pushing up oil prices, heightening inflation concerns, and creating phased pressure on copper prices. Fundamentally, the copper market’s own drivers remained mixed between bullish and bearish factors. China’s manufacturing climate in March remained in expansion territory, providing some support to demand expectations. However, recent trading in the LME market still mostly reflected revisions to earlier shortage expectations. In reality, global visible inventory remained high, restraining the upward momentum of copper prices. Meanwhile, the US adjusted the tariff calculation rules for steel, aluminum, and copper derivatives this week. Although this did not change the 50 tariff framework on copper itself, the policy disruption still affected market sentiment and trade flows. Overall, the copper market remained in a pattern of macro pressure and high inventory, while marginal improvement in China’s demand and the logic of tightness on the mine side remained unchanged. Looking ahead to next week, the macro logic is expected to see no significant change. If the Middle East situation does not materially ease, oil prices and the US dollar will still weigh on copper prices, and short-term resistance will remain. However, support will still persist on the fundamental side, and copper prices are expected to continue to move sideways within a range. LME copper is expected to fluctuate at $12,000-12,500/mt, and SHFE copper at 94,000-97,500 yuan/mt. Spot side, China’s inventory drawdown trend is expected to continue, and premiums are expected to keep rising. Spot prices against the SHFE copper front-month contract are expected to range from a discount of 60 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt.