Concrete figures on the EU safeguard successor's country-specific steel import quotas have begun to surface for the first time, with an Asian industry minister reportedly indicating that individual countries may have been granted significantly higher quotas than previously assumed, suggesting Trade Commissioner Šefčovič may have made greater concessions than anticipated. The minister reportedly stated that nothing had been offered to the EU and warned the measure could violate free trade agreements, with countermeasures possible. Data remains unverified and markets await official publication.

【SMM Steel】India has warned it may withdraw tariff concessions granted to the UK under their free trade agreement unless concerns over Britain's new steel safeguard measures are addressed. From July 1 2026 the UK will cut duty-free steel import quotas by 60% and impose a 50% tariff on over-quota shipments. India is considering "rebalancing" measures including rolling back planned duty cuts on Scotch whisky. Despite UK Trade Secretary Peter Kyle's recent visit to New Delhi to push for the deal's implementation no firm timeline has been set. The FTA which would liberalise 99% of UK tariffs remains unsigned as the steel dispute creates a significant hurdle.

The Canadian government has extended its critical metal tariff measures for one year, valid until June 27, 2027, to protect domestic producers from global excess capacity. Under the extended policy, non-CUSMA (Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement) steel imports exceeding set quotas will face a steep 50% tariff. The tariff-rate quota limits remain strictly capped at 20% of 2024 import volumes for non-free trade agreement (FTA) partners and 75% for FTA partners, while the US and Mexico maintain their exemptions. By locking in these stringent quota limits, Canada aims to prevent trade diversion and provide long-term predictability for local steel operations. However, this extension could constrain supply availability for Canadian downstream manufacturers reliant on offshore steel, potentially driving up domestic premium prices in the medium term.

The Indian government is actively evaluating the withdrawal of specific tariff concessions previously granted to the UK under ongoing free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations, acting as a direct retaliation against the UK’s plan to extend its steel safeguard measures. The UK’s proposed measure aims to impose a restrictive tariff-rate quota (TRQ) system with a 25% punitive customs duty on any imports exceeding specified historical limits, heavily penalizing Indian steel exporters. In response, India has submitted a proposal to the World Trade Organization (WTO) outlining targeted suspension of concessions on UK imports matching the exact trade value disrupted by the British safeguards.

May 28, 2026 Silber-Anleger erleben derzeit ein zähes Ringen: Kurzfristig fehlt dem Markt unterhalb der Marke von 75 US-Dollar jSilver investors are currently facing a tough struggle: In the short term, the market lacks the necessary momentum below the $75-per-ounce mark. Yet explosive momentum is building in the background. While Bank of America (BofA) believes another jump to the three-digit $100 mark is possible before the end of the year, the analyst team also warns against premature optimism. Such a price surge is unlikely to signal a lasting trend reversal. Rather, according to the analysts, the silver market is facing a profound fundamental shift in which the industrial base is increasingly crumbling. The balancing act between precious metal fantasy and industrial reality Bank of America’s latest precious metals analysis paints a picture of a divided market. In the short term, silver has the potential to break through the $100-per-ounce mark in the wake of a sustained gold rally. However, this speculative high is unlikely to last: Analysts are already forecasting a return of the price to a level of around $75 as early as the second quarter of 2027. Currently, the gold-silver ratio of 59.43 points reflects this indecision. It remains in the middle of its months-long consolidation range—an indicator of a market that is sensitively oscillating between short-term speculation and a fundamental revaluation. Although the silver market is heading toward its sixth consecutive year of deficit, the sustainability of this supply shortage is under massive threat in the medium term. Solar Industry in Austerity Mode: The Key Demand Pillar Wavers The strongest headwind for the silver price is emerging, of all places, in its former flagship segment—photovoltaics. Faced with historically high silver prices, solar module manufacturers are responding with drastic efficiency measures. Under sustained margin pressure, they are systematically reducing the silver content in the cells or switching to cheaper substitute metals. According to BofA analysts, silver demand from the solar sector already reached its historic peak last year. This trend is exacerbated by stagnating solar production in China and the prospect of declining new installations in the current year. Since demand growth in other industrial sectors is too weak to close the gap left by the solar industry, the silver market faces a fundamental easing of supply-demand dynamics: as early as 2026, the deficit could shrink by a massive 90%. Should industrial demand continue to weaken, even moderate sales by financial investors would be enough to push the market into a physical surplus. Investors as the Deciding Factor In this changed environment, silver is likely to be perceived and traded more as a classic precious metal rather than an industrial metal in the future. Investor demand thus becomes the decisive price factor. This carries risks, as precious metals have recently suffered from the restrictive interest rate policy and expectations of further rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Rising yields increase the opportunity costs for non-interest-bearing investments and weigh equally on both gold and silver. Nevertheless, silver remains a strategic element of the global energy transition. An abrupt slump in solar demand is not expected. Demand is further fueled by geopolitical conflicts such as the war in Iran, which continues to drive the global push for green energy and alternatives to fossil fuels. Geopolitics and Trade Barriers as Price Drivers Just how volatile the physical market can be was already evident at the start of the year, when the silver price briefly shot up to $120 per ounce amid fierce competition for physical metal. A major source of uncertainty remains the upcoming renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Since Mexico and Canada are the main suppliers to the U.S. market, significant trade risks loom. Concerns about potential tariffs have already prompted banks and market participants to massively increase their holdings within the U.S. This domestic hoarding is draining important liquidity from the global market. According to BofA, this physical withdrawal is the main reason silver has recently managed to climb back above the $80 mark—even though physically backed ETFs are continuously recording outflows and the latest CFTC data signal rather subdued interest in new net long positions in the futures markets. Conclusion: In the short term, silver retains the potential for a breakout toward the $100 mark. However, the foundation for this rise is becoming more fragile. Investors betting on silver should keep an eye on the weakening industrial data, which could set tight time limits on the rally. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/silver-why-the-usd100-mark-is-both-within-reach-and-dangerous

【SMM Steel】India's Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal announced that the India-Oman Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement will officially take effect on June 1, 2026. Under the agreement, Oman will grant duty-free access to nearly 98% of Indian exports, covering 99.38% of India's export value to Oman. Goyal also stated that India and Chile are in talks to upgrade their existing trade pact to a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement to further strengthen bilateral economic cooperation and trade ties.

[SMM Steel] India’s commerce minister announced that the India-Oman free trade agreement (FTA), signed in December 2025, will officially come into effect on June 1, 2026. The agreement is expected to boost bilateral trade by granting duty-free access to nearly 98% of India’s exports to Oman. India also said it is negotiating with Chile to upgrade their existing trade pact into a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA).

India and Peru are expected to resume negotiations on a proposed free trade agreement (FTA) in June 2026, according to Peru’s ambassador to India, with both sides also discussing a critical minerals chapter that includes copper supply cooperation. Hindalco Industries is reportedly in talks to source copper from Peru. Peru is the world’s third-largest copper producer, with output reaching around 2.7 million mt in 2024. As India’s electrification and energy transition demand continue to rise, market attention remains focused on Indian companies securing overseas copper resources and long-term supply chains.

[SMM Tin Morning Briefing: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Opened Slightly Higher in the Night Session and Then Fluctuated Downward, While Downstream Enterprises Concentrated Their Restocking on Dips]

In January 2026, the European Union and India reached a historic Free Trade Agreement (FTA), with the elimination of steel tariffs of up to 22% becoming a major market focus. However, clearing the policy fog of "bilateral exemptions" and analyzing actual export and carbon emission data reveals that the steel industry faces a highly asymmetric trade reshaping. This seemingly fair reduction is actually Europe trading a "capped" ticket for India's "uncapped" massive incremental market.