[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] US-Iran Ceasefire Boosted SS Futures Higher, Stainless Steel Spot Market Showed Signs of Warming On April 8, SMM reported that SS futures showed a strengthening and upward-probing trend. Influenced by the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, non-ferrous metal futures generally opened higher in the morning session, with SS futures rising in tandem, closing at 14,325 yuan/mt by the midday session. Spot market side, driven by the news, the strengthening of SS futures lifted spot market activity, with inquiry enthusiasm increasing notably. Although downstream buyers had not yet accepted higher offers, traders' quotes had already edged up. The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened and probed higher. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 14,265 yuan/mt, up 65 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area ranged from 155-355 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi remained flat; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi remained flat and in Foshan held steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi remained flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were quoted flat in Wuxi; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. The stainless steel market is currently in the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April." Downstream demand fundamentals recovered compared with the earlier period, with end-user procurement continuing at a just-in-time pace, and overall trading volume was sufficient to hold quotes firm. However, affected by macro news disturbances and futures fluctuations, downstream end-user clients still maintained a wait-and-see sentiment, showing no willingness to stockpile, and transactions fluctuated with changes in news. Futures side, the Iranian geopolitical conflict...

[Ceasefire Unlikely to Resolve Supply Weakness; Aluminum Prices Retain Strong Support at High Levels] Overall, the two-week ceasefire news was unable to reverse the firm pattern underpinned by substantive supply damage and low inventory. Expectations of tangible supply contraction triggered by attacks on Middle Eastern aluminum smelters, combined with low global inventory and the recovery of peak-season demand in China, will provide strong upward momentum for aluminum prices. In the near term, aluminum prices are expected to hold up well.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Weak Demand, ADC12 Spot Continued to Weaken] Spot side, the ADC12 market continued in the doldrums yesterday. Affected by aluminum prices being in the doldrums and poor demand-side performance, market sentiment turned cautious. Most market participants slightly lowered their quotes, while a few enterprises held prices steady and took a wait-and-see approach. Currently, low-priced resources increased, the transaction center shifted downward, and prices showed a passive pullback pattern. In the short term, against the backdrop of marginally weakening cost support and limited demand improvement, ADC12 prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Retreated after Rapid Rise on First Day after Qingming Festival, Stainless Steel Spot Quotes Remained Stable SMM April 7 — SS futures retreated after a rapid rise. After the morning opening, SS futures once surged rapidly before being dragged down by the decline in non-ferrous futures, closing at 14,135 yuan/mt by the midday close. Spot market side, affected by the overall fluctuations in futures, spot traders continued to maintain a strategy of holding prices stable for shipments. Downstream end-users remained cautiously on the sidelines, purchasing mainly based on rigid demand, with mediocre inquiry and trading activity, and market quotes remained generally stable. The most-traded SS futures contract retreated after a rapid rise. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 14,200 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area were in the range of 220-420 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi remained flat; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi remained flat and in Foshan remained stable; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi remained flat; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi quotes remained flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan remained stable. The stainless steel market is currently in the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April." Downstream demand fundamentals recovered compared with the earlier period, with end-user purchases continuing at a rigid-demand pace, and overall trading volume was sufficient to hold quotes firm. However, affected by macro news disturbances and futures fluctuations, downstream end-user clients still held a wait-and-see sentiment with no willingness to stockpile, and trading fluctuated with changes in news. Futures...

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Weaker Aluminum Prices Weigh on the Market, ADC12 Remains in the Doldrums] Spot side, the ADC12 market continued to fluctuate downward. Affected by the widening decline in aluminum prices, market sentiment turned cautious, and most enterprises lowered their quotations; a few enterprises temporarily held prices steady and stayed on the sidelines with support from costs. As the Qingming Festival holiday approaches, downstream stockpiling demand fell short of expectations, with procurement still mainly driven by rigid demand, and transaction performance showed no obvious improvement. Coupled with market expectations of weakening demand in April, ADC12 prices are still facing some downward pressure in the short term, and the market remains in the doldrums.

[Concerns Over Supply Shortfalls Triggered by Attacks on Middle Eastern Aluminum Plants Give Aluminum Prices Strong Upward Momentum] Overall, expectations of a substantive supply contraction triggered by attacks on Middle Eastern aluminum plants, combined with low global inventory and a recovery in peak-season demand in China, will provide strong upward momentum for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to break out of their trading range and hold up well.

SMM News, April 2: This week, total inventory in the two major stainless steel markets of Wuxi and Foshan posted a slight inventory buildup, rising from 982,000 mt on March 19, 2026 to 984,100 mt on April 2, 2026, up 0.21% WoW. During the week, stainless steel futures were overall in the doldrums. Dragged down by futures moves, downstream end-users showed strong wait-and-see sentiment, and market inquiries and transactions were sluggish. Although the market was in the traditional peak consumption season, downstream just-in-time procurement was maintained, but amid disruptions from the macro environment, stainless steel prices lacked a clear direction. In the short term, transactions were heavily affected by changes in futures, and downstream end-users generally remained cautious, with little willingness to proactively stockpile, further constraining the pace of inventory digestion. Supply side, steel mills concentrated shipments to the market at month-end March, and arrivals were relatively large this week, directly driving the slight inventory buildup. Meanwhile, planned production at stainless steel mills remained generally high in April, and supply-side pressure persisted, posing a major challenge to inventory digestion. Coupled with continued macro perspective disruptions, rising market uncertainty further reinforced downstream caution, and stockpiling enthusiasm remained low throughout. Overall, this week's slight inventory buildup was mainly driven by the combined impact of concentrated steel mill shipments at month-end March, increased arrivals, weak futures, and insufficient willingness among downstream players to stockpile. At present, the high production schedule pace at steel mills has not changed significantly, and social inventory still faced substantial digestion pressure against the backdrop of high supply. Although the "Silver April" peak season provided some support to demand and just-in-time procurement kept the market basically stable, downstream caution was hard to reverse, making a sharp inventory drawdown difficult in the short term. Going forward, the key to inventory trends will still be closely tracking the release of real downstream demand, the direction of futures, and subsequent changes in the macro environment.

This week, 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts prices in east China held steady at 10,100-10,200 yuan/mt; prices for the same grade of stainless steel scrap off-cuts in Foshan dropped back slightly, with the price range at 9,700-10,000 yuan/mt. Raw material production cost side, the current cost of producing stainless steel entirely from stainless steel scrap was about 14,218.64 yuan/mt, while the production cost of using only high-grade NPI was 14,745.57 yuan/mt. This week, stainless steel scrap prices remained largely stable, mainly as supportive and constraining factors were intertwined, with no obvious one-way trend. Stainless steel finished product prices edged down under pressure from weaker SS futures, and market sentiment was somewhat disturbed, but this did not directly transmit to the stainless steel scrap market, where prices remained stable. Substitute furnace charge performed steadily, with both high-grade NPI and high-carbon ferrochrome prices largely stable this week and showing no obvious fluctuations in change, so their overall impact in driving stainless steel scrap prices was limited and failed to provide effective support or drag. Factors supporting the stable performance of stainless steel scrap prices were more prominent. The recent tightness in stainless steel scrap tax invoices eased somewhat, improving the market trading environment. Meanwhile, the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap over high-grade NPI remained in place. In addition, stainless steel mills' April production schedules stayed high, and steel mills increased their use of stainless steel scrap with economic advantages, lifting recent market trading activity, while previously accumulated inventory pressure also eased to some extent, providing strong support for stable prices. However, constraining factors also remained. Stainless steel finished product prices currently faced difficulty moving higher, and under this transmission effect, stainless steel scrap prices still faced some pressure to rise, making any obvious upward trend difficult to emerge. Overall, the stainless steel scrap market this week showed a pattern of "strong support, clear constraints, and stable prices." Supportive and constraining factors counterbalanced each other, and stainless steel scrap prices were expected to remain stable in the short term.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Fluctuated Upward, Spot Stainless Steel Trading Sluggish Ahead of Qingming Festival SMM News on April 3: SS futures showed an upward fluctuation trend. SHFE nickel drove SS futures to stop falling and strengthen, closing at 14,235 yuan/mt as of the midday close. Spot market, although SS futures stopped falling and rebounded, the overall gains were limited, providing no obvious boost to the spot market; coupled with the approaching Qingming Festival holiday, overall market trading sentiment was sluggish, and traders' quotes were largely stable. The most-traded SS futures contract stopped falling and strengthened. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,150 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 270-470 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi was unchanged; for cold-rolled burr-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi was unchanged, and the average price in Foshan was largely stable; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were unchanged; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi quotes were unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were largely stable. The stainless steel market is currently in the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April," and the fundamental downstream demand improved compared with the previous period. End-user procurement continued at a pace based on rigid demand, and overall trading volume was sufficient to support the market's basic vitality. However, affected by macro news disruptions and fluctuations in futures, downstream end-user clients still maintained a wait-and-see sentiment, showing no willingness to stockpile, and transactions fluctuated with changes in the news flow. Futures, the Iran geopolitical conflict is difficult to resolve in the short term, and uncertainty in macro news continues to cause disruptions...

[[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]]Secondary Aluminum Market Consolidated at High Levels, Intensifying the Tug-of-War Between Cost Support and Weak Demand