Breaking News | SGS Audit Shows Cobre Panama Mine Compliance Rate Near 88%, Obstacles to Production Resumption Further Cleared On June 19, Panama's Ministry of Environment released the final audit report by Switzerland's SGS on First Quantum's Cobre Panama copper mine. The audit covered 370 commitments from 2019 to 2023, with an overall compliance rate of approximately 88%. Technical and operational standards scored the highest (90.20%), followed by environmental compliance. SGS pointed out that issues were concentrated in areas such as biodiversity management, and do not constitute structural deficiencies. According to SMM, maintenance of key equipment at the mine is proceeding normally. If the production resumption permit is granted, production is expected to resume at a relatively fast pace. The mine has been suspended since November 2023, with an annual capacity of approximately 350,000 mt of copper. The Panamanian government has established a cross-departmental working group to evaluate subsequent decisions.

Zambia has extended its suspension of export duties on copper concentrates until September 30 to ease stockpile pressure caused by prolonged smelter outages. The measure covers more than 270,000 tonnes of concentrate from major producers including Mopani, Lumwana, and First Quantum. Authorities hope the extension will help maintain supply-chain stability while domestic processing facilities recover.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,576.5/mt, dipping to $13,554.5/mt early in the session. The price center then fluctuated upward throughout the session, reaching a high of $13,747/mt near the close, and ultimately settled at $13,746.5/mt, up 1.71%. Trading volume reached 21,000 lots, and open interest reached 276,000 lots, an increase of 5,289 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 104,450 yuan/mt, fluctuating downward early in the session to a low of 104,100 yuan/mt. The price center then surged upward, reaching 105,290 yuan/mt near the close, and ultimately settled at 105,270 yuan/mt, up 1.17%. Trading volume reached 41,000 lots, and open interest reached 177,000 lots, a decrease of 310 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,477/mt, dipped to a low of $13,436/mt in early trading, then the price center gradually shifted upward to reach $13,625/mt, and finally moved sideways at high levels to close at $13,590/mt, up 0.34%, with trading volume at 24,000 lots and open interest at 283,000 lots, an increase of 2,099 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 104,480 yuan/mt, touched a high of 104,840 yuan/mt in early trading, then the price center shifted slightly lower to a low of 104,440 yuan/mt, and finally moved sideways to close at 104,590 yuan/mt, up 0.28%, with trading volume at 30,000 lots and open interest at 154,000 lots, a decrease of 3,110 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.

Driven by recovering risk appetite and China's peak demand season, copper prices both in China and abroad bottomed out since late March. However, as SHFE copper returned to the 100,000 level, the tug-of-war between longs and shorts increased, and futures prices shifted to range-bound consolidation. After the Labour Day holiday, copper prices quickly resumed their upward momentum. Today, prices opened higher with a gap and continued to rise, with SHFE copper just one step away from the record high set at the end of January, while LME copper hit a new closing high. What is fueling such strong confidence behind this rally? Deepening Ore-Side Vulnerability Intensifies Supply Disruption Concerns Since the suspension of First Quantum's Cobre Panama copper mine at the end of 2023, spot TC for copper concentrates in China has been caught in an endless downward spiral. Falling from around $80/dmt at the end of 2023, it largely dropped to single-digit levels and moved sideways in 2024. Entering 2025, it further plunged into negative territory, mainly due to successive production disruptions at world-class copper mines including Ivanhoe Mines' Kakula, Codelco's El Teniente, and Freeport's Grasberg mine in Indonesia. Entering 2026, global major copper ore supply growth remained limited, and the ore tightness showed no improvement. The latest data showed that spot TC for copper concentrates in China had fallen below -$90/dmt. With long-term contract TC at zero and spot TC declines accelerating, domestic smelters' production profits mainly relied on surging sulphuric acid prices and firm by-product prices of gold, silver, and other metals to compensate. It was reported that current sulphuric acid revenue could already cover smelters' procurement costs for copper concentrates and part of the processing costs, enabling domestic smelters to maintain relatively high operating rates, and the ore tightness had not yet notably transmitted to the smelting side. It is worth noting that sulphuric acid is not only a by-product of pyrometallurgy but also a core production material for SX-EW copper. For every 1 mt of copper produced, 5–6 mt of sulphuric acid is consumed. Sulphuric acid costs account for 40%–50% of total SX-EW copper production costs, and SX-EW copper production accounts for approximately 20% of global mine copper production. Since the beginning of this year, sulphuric acid prices surged sharply due to multiple factors, and ex-China sulphuric acid supply was periodically disrupted, raising concerns that copper supply in some countries could be affected. Focusing on the reasons behind the sulphuric acid price surge: on one hand, since the escalation of the Middle East conflict on February 28, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been broadly restricted and has recently faced a dual blockade by Iran and the US. Sulphur exports from the Middle East have been impacted, with the DRC and Zambia being the most concentrated SX-EW copper producing regions that are highly dependent on sulphur imports from the Middle East. As sulphur supply has been constrained, sulphuric acid prices have naturally risen in tandem, not only raising local SX-EW copper production costs but also potentially triggering further production cuts if the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues and sulphur disruption risks escalate. On the other hand, to prioritise domestic spring ploughing phosphate fertiliser production and support new energy industry expansion, China has imposed a phased ban on sulphuric acid exports according to industry sources. Chile has a relatively high dependence on Chinese sulphuric acid, with SX-EW copper accounting for around 20% of its output, and the market is also concerned that Chile's SX-EW copper production may be affected. In addition, against the backdrop of an already fragile copper ore supply, frequent news shocks from outside China recently have undoubtedly intensified market concerns. Last week, market rumours suggested that the full restart of Indonesia's Grasberg copper-gold mine, which declared force majeure in September last year, had been delayed by one year, driving SHFE copper sharply higher in the afternoon of 8 May. However, according to the latest update from Freeport-McMoRan, the company still expects Indonesia's Grasberg copper-gold mine to fully resume production by the end of 2027, reaffirming the plan outlined last month and refuting reports that production resumptions could be delayed to 2028. Furthermore, yesterday Peru declared an emergency energy decree due to a natural gas pipeline explosion. Peru's copper production reached 2.63 million mt in metal content last year, ranking third globally. Copper mining and smelting are relatively sensitive to power stability, and the market is concerned that Peru's energy strain may disrupt local copper supply. Overall, China's copper cathode production remains relatively stable, but some major global miners lowered their full-year production guidance in Q1, the ore tightness persists, sulphuric acid supply — a core raw material for ex-China SX-EW copper — is constrained, and there are multiple supply disruption themes on the copper supply side, which can easily boost copper prices once the macro front stabilises. Global Copper Visible Inventory Divergence: China Destocking Provides Support Last year, driven by the US government's threat to impose additional tariffs on imported copper, global copper continued to flow into the US, causing COMEX copper inventories to accumulate continuously while copper inventories in non-US regions remained low, providing sustained support for copper prices. In February this year, the US Supreme Court struck down most of the tariff measures introduced by the Trump administration in 2025. The Trump administration subsequently turned to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to push new global tariff policies. On 7 May, the US Court of International Trade issued a ruling stating that the legal basis for imposing a 10% global import tariff was invalid. The tug-of-war between US courts and the Trump administration over tariffs has continued recently, but the market has certain expectations that the US may subsequently impose additional tariffs on imported copper. Under such expectations, the price spread between COMEX copper and LME copper has shown a slight strengthening trend recently, meaning copper in LME warehouses still has the potential to flow to the US. Specifically, COMEX copper inventories have continued to rebound since mid-April, rising from around 590,000 mt to the latest 620,000 mt, again hitting a multi-year high. Correspondingly, LME copper inventories pulled back from around 400,000 mt in mid-April, declining to 397,700 mt on 6 May. They have rebounded with fluctuations recently, but overall inventories have not exceeded the over-12-year high set in mid-April. SHFE copper inventories fell for the eighth consecutive week, currently dropping to 181,300 mt, the lowest since the beginning of the year. Data source: Webstock Inc. Overall, on the macro front, there are currently disagreements in US-Iran negotiations, but both sides continue the ceasefire with no recent signs of escalation in conflict. Energy prices pulled back from late April levels, inflation concerns eased somewhat, the US dollar index was in the doldrums, and combined with the AI boom lifting global stock markets, market risk appetite was moderate, providing a fertile ground for copper prices to strengthen. Focusing on copper's own fundamentals, inventories outside China remained elevated, but significant prior destocking of China inventories provided support. The ore tightness was difficult to reverse, and supply-side narratives were abundant, meaning copper prices may still hold up well. However, it is worth noting that the Middle East situation remains the biggest macro variable, and the policy path following the Fed Chairman's power transition also deserves close attention. (Webstock Composite)

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,237/mt, touched a low of $13,213/mt early in the session before the center fluctuated upward, reached a high of $13,330/mt and then began to fluctuate downward, ultimately closing at $13,245/mt, down 0.78%, with trading volume at 18,000 lots and open interest at 281,000 lots, an increase of 478 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 102,500 yuan/mt, quickly tested a high of 102,830 yuan/mt early in the session, then copper prices dropped sharply to a low of 102,280 yuan/mt, and subsequently fluctuated downward to ultimately close at 102,490 yuan/mt, down 0.13%, with trading volume at 31,000 lots and open interest at 199,000 lots, an increase of 2,351 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions.

On April 20 (Monday), two industry sources said that Zambia's two largest copper smelters and sulphuric acid producers plan to carry out extended maintenance shutdowns later this year, which will further squeeze the country's copper production and the supply of sulphuric acid used to process copper and cobalt. The Iran war has disrupted global supplies of this critical acid and other leaching chemicals, forcing mines in neighboring Congo, the world's largest cobalt producer and second-largest copper producer, to reduce usage or consider production cuts. Zambia's mining ministry said that, as Africa's second-largest producer of critical metals needed for clean energy technologies, the country's copper smelters generate approximately 2 million mt of sulphuric acid annually, mainly as a by-product for use by local mines, with the surplus exported to the DRC. First Quantum Minerals' country head in Zambia said that Zambia's own sulphuric acid inventory had been severely depleted, leaving virtually no export capacity. Meanwhile, miners in neighboring DRC were also struggling to cope with tightening chemical supplies. *Mopani's long-overdue maintenance* A chemicals trader said that although copper smelters typically shut down for about 30 days each year for routine maintenance, Mopani and Chambishi copper mines will face longer shutdowns this year. A mining executive said Mopani copper mine had not undergone maintenance for some time and plans to shut down for three days in June, followed by an extended shutdown of approximately 40-45 days, August-mid-September. The chemicals trader said Chambishi copper mine plans to shut down for approximately two months throughout August, but did not elaborate on the reasons for the planned extended shutdown. Zambia tightened controls on sulphuric acid exports this month, requiring traders to obtain permits. The country said the move was aimed at protecting domestic industries. First Quantum's Zambia country director Anthony Mukutuma said the measures were reasonable but exports were unlikely in the short term. *Global copper supply expected to decline* Global copper supply will tighten this year as years of underinvestment have constrained mine production growth. Zambia produced 890,346 mt of the red metal last year, falling short of the 1 million mt target. Meanwhile, according to shipping data, Congo's copper exports declined in Q1 this year. The mining executive said Mopani copper mine was operating well below its 225,000 mt finished copper capacity due to a shortage of copper concentrates caused by years of underinvestment. The executive said the main owner, UAE-based International Resources Holding, was simultaneously developing and mining the mine, which forced intermittent production stoppages and further constrained output. (Wenhua Consolidated)

Early this week, the market continued to trade around the progress of the US-Iran ceasefire and the volatile Middle East situation. Trump agreed to suspend strikes on Iran for two weeks, and Iran also accepted the temporary ceasefire proposal. Risk appetite recovered on a phased basis, and copper prices were briefly boosted. Subsequently, the US-Iran temporary ceasefire agreement was finalized, and the US dollar index pulled back to a one-month low, further supporting a rebound in copper prices. However, as the ceasefire agreement remained fragile, some of the truce terms proposed by Iran had already been violated, compounded by recurring disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the market consistently maintained caution over the sustainability of the agreement. By the latter part of mid-week, Israel sought peace talks with Lebanon, ceasefire expectations warmed again, and overall market sentiment tilted toward optimism. Overall, the macro theme this week remained the marginal easing of Middle East tensions driving risk appetite recovery and the US dollar pullback supporting copper prices, but geopolitical volatility kept the market cautious, and copper prices held up well overall. On the fundamentals side, the copper concentrates tightness narrative continued to ferment. Smelter procurement remained aggressive; meanwhile, sulphuric acid prices surged significantly recently, notably offsetting smelting losses, and the actual profits generated from smelting further intensified smelters' competition for raw materials. Another noteworthy change on the supply side was that the Panamanian government approved First Quantum's plan to process and export stockpiled materials from the shut-down Cobre Panama mine, involving approximately 38 million mt of stockpiled ore and approximately 70,000 mt of recoverable copper. However, this measure did not equate to a formal restart of the mine, and the short-term incremental impact on copper raw material supply remained relatively limited. Affected by the Middle East situation, on one hand, reports emerged that two smelters in Iran had halted production; on the other hand, petrochemical-related product supply in Southeast Asia and Japan was disrupted. Both supply and demand sides saw declines. In contrast, China's consumption remained robust, with notable support from downstream orders. Looking ahead to next week, the macro narrative is expected to remain largely unchanged for now. If the ceasefire agreement holds, risk appetite may continue to recover, and a weaker US dollar is also expected to provide some support for copper prices. However, given the potential for renewed volatility in the Middle East and the fact that shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have not been fully resolved, upside for copper prices is expected to remain constrained. On the fundamentals side, ore supply tightness and deteriorating smelting margins continue to support the price floor, and copper prices are expected to move sideways with an upward bias in the short term. LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $12,300-12,850/mt, and SHFE copper between 96,000-99,000 yuan/mt. Spot cargo side, as the futures center shifts higher, downstream willingness to chase higher prices may be suppressed, but if the price spread between futures contracts widens only modestly, spot premiums are still expected to remain firm.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,398/mt, dipped to a low of $12,280/mt early in the session, then the price center rose to test a bottom at $12,755.5/mt, and finally moved sideways to close at $12,705.5/mt, up 3.06%, with trading volume at 28,000 lots and open interest at 294,000 lots, down 357 lots from the previous trading day, mainly driven by bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 98,080 yuan/mt, touched a high of 98,500 yuan/mt early in the session, then the price center fluctuated lower to test a bottom at 97,890 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 98,330 yuan/mt, up 0.11%, with trading volume at 33,000 lots and open interest at 178,000 lots, down 3,110 lots from the previous trading day, mainly driven by bears reducing positions.

Panama’s government expects to issue a resolution by Tuesday allowing First Quantum Minerals to remove stockpiled ore from the closed Cobre Panama copper mine, Trade Minister Julio Molto said Monday.The mine holds about 38 million metric tons of stockpiled ore, which could yield roughly 70,000 tons of copper. First Quantum has said processing could begin about three months after formal approval and take around a year to complete.