India’s finished steel consumption rose 7% to 161 million tonnes in FY26, marking the slowest post-pandemic growth. Infrastructure demand stayed flat at 45 million tonnes as project execution, highway construction and fund disbursement slowed. Manufacturing became the main growth driver, with engineering, capital goods, consumer durables and automobiles lifting combined demand to 60 million tonnes and contributing over 70% of incremental growth. BigMint expects demand to rise to 175 million tonnes in FY27 as infrastructure recovers.

This week, ferrous metals experienced divergent and volatile movements. At the start of the week, the four major stock indices all closed lower. Coking coal futures showed strong performance, with the most-traded contract 2609 hitting a high of 1,486.5 yuan/mt, while ore and steel futures trended weaker. Subsequently, hit by news about Shaanxi authorities ensuring coal supply for enterprises, coupled with persistently weak steel consumption, supply-demand imbalances gradually built up, leading to a sharp decline in coking coal and coke futures. In the latter half of the week, on the one hand, news of iron ore shipments and tightening market liquidity drove a stronger performance in its futures; on the other hand, the escalation of coking coal supply tightness once again pushed up coking coal, coke, and hot-rolled coil and rebar futures prices. In the spot market, the sixth round of coke price increases was implemented mid-week......

According to provisional government data, India became a net importer of finished steel in April 2026—the first month of the 2026-2027 fiscal year. During the month, finished steel imports surged by 30.8% year-on-year to an estimated 0.7 million metric tons (mt), outpacing the 0.5 million mt in exports, which also grew by 24.9% over the corresponding month of the previous year. This trade reversal contrasts with the recently concluded 2025-2026 fiscal year, where India achieved a net exporter status with 6.6 million mt of total exports against 6.5 million mt of imports. The shift was primarily fueled by an 8.2% jump in domestic finished steel consumption to approximately 13 million mt, while crude steel production recorded a narrower 3.9% growth to 13.8 million mt.

[SMM Steel] India’s finished steel consumption increased 8.1% YoY to 12.99 million mt in April 2026, supported by stronger construction, infrastructure, and manufacturing demand, according to the Ministry of Steel. Crude steel production rose 5.8% YoY to 14.09 million mt, while finished steel output increased 3.4% to 13.05 million mt. Imports surged 30.8% YoY to 0.68 million mt, exceeding exports, which rose 24.9% YoY to 0.47 million mt.

India's crude steel production rose by 6% year-on-year in April 2026 to reach 12.1 million metric tons (Mt). Domestic finished steel consumption outpaced production growth, increasing by 8% to 11.3 million mt, driven by strong infrastructure activity. During the month, finished steel output stood at 11.6 million mt (+5.5% YoY), while imports jumped 12% to 0.6 million mt and exports fell by 15% to 0.5 million mt. The data confirms India's status as a primary driver of global steel demand, with strong domestic absorption reducing export surpluses and making the country a net importer for the period, which may support global steel prices amid tightening regional supply.

Turkey's crude steel production grew by 5.3% year-on-year to 9.7 million metric tons (mt) in the first quarter of 2026, supported by a 6.4% output increase in March to 3.3 million mt. Meanwhile, domestic finished steel consumption surged 8.9% year-on-year to 9.9 million mt in Q1, but the foreign trade balance weakened as steel exports dropped 6.8% to 3.5 million mt while imports climbed 2.6% to 4.3 million mt, pushing the export-to-import ratio down to 77.7%. Although Middle East supply chain shifts and reduced Chinese export aggression opened market opportunities in Europe, producers face mounting operational pressures and narrowing profit margins due to scrap prices approaching $400/mt, surging freight rates, and stringent EU import regulations.

【SMM Steel】Turkey's March finished steel consumption rose 20.9% y/y to 3.2Mt, crude steel output up 6.4% to 3.3Mt. Q1 exports fell 6.8% in volume and 9.4% in value. Middle East tensions are reshaping supply chains. Turkey is gaining market share in Europe but surging scrap/energy prices and freight/insurance costs are squeezing margins. Steel imports surged 38.2% y/y in March. New EU trade restrictions are a critical issue. The association called for proactive steps to shield the domestic industry from dumping amid rapidly spreading steel protectionism.

[SMM Steel] Global steel and raw material prices continued rising in April 2026, with HRC, billet, scrap, and iron ore prices increasing 6.3–18.9% YoY, while coking coal surged 30.1% YoY. Imported US HMS 1/2 80:20 scrap prices to Vietnam rose 7.1% MoM and 13.8% YoY, while imported HRC prices also increased sharply in late April. In Vietnam, domestic HRC prices increased by around VND 900–988/kg, and coated steel prices continued rising with some mills raising prices 4–5 times during the month due to higher input costs. Against this backdrop, VNSTEEL’s total finished steel consumption in the first four months of 2026 increased 16.9% YoY, with long steel sales rising 30% and metal products growing 37.4%, supported by improving domestic construction and infrastructure demand.

India’s steel market in 2026 is expected to remain balanced, with demand slightly outpacing supply. Domestic consumption will absorb most output, while imports decline overall and exports increase modestly as a balancing mechanism. Supported by strong growth and infrastructure investment, India is transitioning toward a demand-led steel market with solid long-term potential.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, coking costs at coke producers increased, profit per mt of coke narrowed somewhat, and coke producer inventories still needed to be drawn down, weighing on their production enthusiasm. However, downstream demand improved somewhat, and coke producers were actively making shipments. Demand side, the country's important meetings have concluded, and blast furnaces previously subject to production restrictions resumed production one after another, increasing rigid demand for coke. However, uncertainty still remained in finished steel consumption, and most steel mills remained cautious in their coke procurement. In summary, the supply-demand imbalance in the coke market eased somewhat, and cost support strengthened. In the short term, the coke market may temporarily remain stable.