This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. The main logic during the week remained weakening cost support. On Tuesday, Iran proposed charging transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump made conciliatory remarks, saying that “even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, he would still be willing to end military action against Iran.” Market expectations for tighter crude oil supply weakened, and declines in the energy sector dragged down the coal sector, weakening the cost-side logic. During the week, inventories of the five major steel products continued to decline, but apparent demand remained at a low level for the same period in previous years, providing limited fundamental-driven momentum to futures. In the spot market, purchasing interest was average, mainly focused on restocking at low prices. Spot prices were relatively firm, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

Inter-product price spreads are a segment of the rebar spread system characterized by complex logic and abundant trading opportunities. Unlike the spot-futures price spread, which reflects the spot-futures structure, and calendar spreads, which reflect near- and far-term expectations, the core of inter-product price spreads lies in macroeconomic structural adjustment and profit distribution across the industry chain. From the perspective of the industry chain, inter-product price spreads for long steel products are mainly concentrated in the following four areas:

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, most coke producers maintained relatively stable operating rates, and downstream buyers showed moderate enthusiasm for coke procurement, with smooth shipments from coke producers and no obvious inventory pressure for the time being. On the demand side, steel mills were currently in the stage of blast furnace production resumptions, increasing rigid demand for coke, but no significant improvement was seen in end-use demand for finished steel products, market sentiment weakened, and steel mills' purchase willingness declined somewhat. In summary, the first round of coke price increases was officially implemented, but market sentiment pulled back recently, most steel mills had moderate coke inventories, the coke supply-demand structure gradually shifted toward balance, and the coke market may remain generally stable with slight rise in the short term.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Moved Sideways, with Cost Support Keeping Spot Stainless Steel Largely Stable SMM News on April 1: SS futures fluctuated. Stainless steel futures rose first and then fell, with a relatively small intraday change, closing at 14,180 yuan/mt by the midday close. In the spot market, SS futures fluctuated, while prices of various furnace charge materials remained relatively firm, supporting stainless steel prices. Market quotations were largely stable, with limited room to rise or fall. Although downstream end-users mainly made just-in-time procurement, current market inventory pressure was not high, and prices were still expected to remain relatively stable in the short term. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,275 yuan/mt, up 75 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 195-395 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi was unchanged; for cold-rolled burr-edge 304/2B coils, the average prices in both Wuxi and Foshan were stable; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were unchanged; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in Wuxi were quoted flat; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan remained stable. The stainless steel market has now entered the traditional peak consumption season. Transactions from downstream end-users remained steady, but market sentiment turned cautious. End-user enterprises lacked willingness to stockpile, with procurement mainly driven by restocking based on demand, and the brisk trading pattern typically seen in the peak season had yet to emerge. Overall demand remained steady and neutral. Futures side, repeated disruptions from the Iran geopolitical conflict made it difficult for the short-term impact on SS futures to be fully eliminated; however, recently...

As of March 31, the operating rate of 50 electric furnace steel mills nationwide mainly producing construction materials was 41.42%, up 1% WoW from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate was 42.6%, up 0.86% WoW; and daily average production of construction materials was 94,900 mt, up 1,900 mt WoW. During the survey period (March 24–March 31), the operating rate of electric furnace mills nationwide still maintained a slight rebound this week. At present, the profitability of construction materials production at most electric furnace mills was near the break-even line. Among them, profitability in Central China improved slightly, mainly because some electric furnace mills ensured production profitability by adjusting product specifications and markup strategies. Overall, cost pressure on electric furnace mills remained in place. If finished steel prices continued to remain in the doldrums, production enthusiasm among electric furnace enterprises would gradually weaken, and the overall pace of capacity release might tend to slow, making a large-scale production increase less likely.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Indonesian Export Taxation Failed to Halt the SS Downtrend; Spot Stainless Steel Remained Stable, with Transactions Mainly Driven by Rigid Demand SMM News, March 31: SS futures continued to decline and pull back. Although news emerged about export taxation on Indonesian nickel products, dragged down by weaker SHFE nickel today, SS futures also fell in tandem, closing at 14,145 yuan/mt by the midday close. In the spot market, despite the decline in SS futures, the spot stainless steel market remained stable overall. Most traders kept quotes unchanged, while downstream end-users mainly maintained steady procurement based on rigid demand. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,365 yuan/mt, down 165 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 270-470 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi was unchanged; for cold-rolled trim-edge 304/2B coils, the average prices in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were unchanged; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in Wuxi were quoted flat; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan remained stable. The stainless steel market had entered the traditional peak consumption season. Transactions among downstream end-users remained stable, but market sentiment turned cautious. End-user enterprises lacked willingness to stockpile, and procurement was mainly driven by restocking as needed. The brisk trading pattern typically seen in the peak season had not emerged, and overall demand remained stable and neutral. Futures side, repeated disruptions from the Iran geopolitical conflict made its short-term impact on SS futures difficult to fully eliminate; however, recently, due to the conflict...

[SMM Analysis] Steel Export Review: Geopolitical Conflicts Trigger the Reshaping of the Export Landscape In terms of steel billet exports , the main target market in the first two months remained Indonesia. Part of the cargoes was imported by Chinese-funded or joint-venture rolling mills in Indonesia for further processing and use, thereby avoiding Southeast Asia’s import tariffs on finished steel products, while another part was supplied directly to local projects under construction. Meanwhile, Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America formed a solid base of exports. In particular, on the African side, Djibouti, as a core transshipment hub, had been handling a large volume of circulating resources. Turkey, meanwhile, saw a wave of concentrated external purchases due to delays in steel scrap vessel schedules and spot-futures price spread arbitrage. In terms of bar exports , the share to Hong Kong, China declined somewhat from the end of last year, while exports to Singapore overtook it. The main reason was that procurement in Singapore was rigidly driven by local public housing renewal and public infrastructure projects, such as the Greater Southern Waterfront, according to construction periods, with actual end-user consumption remaining relatively stable; whereas Hong Kong, China, as a capital and logistics transshipment hub, saw some earlier speculative re-export orders constrained by offshore exchange-rate fluctuations at the beginning of the year and funding borrowing costs. Traders proactively reduced some speculative exposure for financial risk hedging purposes, which led to a decline in transshipment procurement volume. Looking ahead to March , with the full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s semi-finished products export channels were effectively cut off. Chinese steel billet is expected to absorb these additional export orders arising from geopolitical conflict, and traders and steel mills will also accelerate shipments to markets outside China such as Southeast Asia to gain a larger replacement share. Therefore, total steel billet exports still have room to rise. By contrast, Chinese bar exports mainly rely on short-haul regional shipping routes into the inland areas within Asia, and were subject to extremely limited direct impact from the disruption of long-haul Middle East logistics. Therefore, March shipments are expected to remain stable, supported by rigid-demand restocking within the region. Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs Unlike the strong performance of billets, sheets & plates exports in the first two months were unsatisfactory. The cumulative exports of both cold galvanized and hot-rolled products in January and February declined YoY , with the drop in hot-rolled products being more pronounced. However, it should be noted that before the full suspension of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz at the end of February, logistics channels to the Middle East remained open, which secured a critical delivery window for sheets & plates. Therefore, in terms of HRC exports , Saudi Arabia still firmly ranked first among export destinations with a volume of 348,000 mt , mainly because its large-scale non-oil infrastructure and manufacturing projects in China were still in an intensive construction phase, with strong end-user steel demand, which also prompted local buyers to lock in relatively lower-priced Chinese HRC ahead of shipping disruptions, thereby maintaining its leading position. Pakistan (230,000 mt ), by contrast, saw this mainly due to bottlenecks in domestic supply, creating phased concentrated restocking demand, and according to the SMM survey, most purchases were made by downstream pipe factories. From the perspective of cold galvanized exports , the Southeast Asian market was currently in a stage of rapid development, and macroeconomic expansion had created a huge gap in flat steel products. Thailand in particular (304,000 mt ) was in a concentrated raw material stocking cycle for local downstream auto manufacturers at the beginning of this year, so just-in-time procurement by multiple physical manufacturers directly pushed up local imports. Looking ahead to March , under the dual impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade and the Ramadan effect, sheets & plates exports to the Middle East core region are expected to face a sharp contraction. SMM shipping data showed that steel arrivals had already declined by more than 900,000 mt. However, under the pressure of elevated destocking in China, this portion of blocked exports is expected to be redirected to Southeast Asia and other alternative markets with “rigid manufacturing demand” for redistribution, thereby offsetting shipment reductions caused by localized logistics disruptions. Therefore, there is no need for excessive concern over total sheets & plates exports in March Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. 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India’s steel market in 2026 is expected to remain balanced, with demand slightly outpacing supply. Domestic consumption will absorb most output, while imports decline overall and exports increase modestly as a balancing mechanism. Supported by strong growth and infrastructure investment, India is transitioning toward a demand-led steel market with solid long-term potential.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Macro Uncertainty Coupled With Just-in-Time Demand Support Kept Stainless Steel Spot and Futures Fluctuating SMM News, March 30: SS futures maintained a fluctuating trend. As macro news continued to cause disruptions, the market struggled to find a clear direction, making it difficult to change the fluctuating pattern in futures. As of the midday close, prices stood at 14,360 yuan/mt. In the spot market, spot stainless steel transactions were mostly driven by just-in-time demand, with limited fluctuations in market quotations, and traders generally adopted a strategy of holding prices steady for shipments. Although current stainless steel prices still had some cost support, heavy macro uncertainty fostered strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market; to avoid price fluctuations, downstream players mostly made just-in-time procurement. Despite solid underlying just-in-time demand during the peak season, fundamental factors such as supply and demand and costs were still unlikely to dominate stainless steel price trends in the short term. The most-traded SS futures contract maintained a fluctuating trend. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,365 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 105-305 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was unchanged; for cold-rolled trim-edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt, while the average price in Foshan held steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was unchanged; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, Wuxi quotations were unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. The stainless steel market has now entered the traditional peak consumption season. Downstream end-user transactions remained stable, but market sentiment turned cautious, with end-user enterprises showing little willingness to stockpile, and purchases were mostly made through restocking as needed...

This week, ferrous metals retreated after a rapid rise. At the beginning of the week, the market said that Asia had shifted to coal-fired power generation due to a natural gas supply deficit, while Indonesia would increase coal production and impose export taxes. The rise in international coal prices was transmitted to China, and coking coal and coke led the gains in ferrous metals; mid-week, the Middle East situation remained volatile, and the U.S. and Iran held differing attitudes toward war, with ferrous metals consolidating at high levels; the pullback in the second half of the week was also mainly due to the weakening of the cost-side logic, as market rumors said long-term iron ore contract negotiations had been completed, expectations for tightening iron ore supply declined, and raw materials turned into the main driver of the pullback. In the spot market, speculative trading and end-user purchase sentiment improved in the first half of the week, while rigid demand remained dominant in the second half, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......