This week, finished steel continued its gradual decline, while raw materials began to stabilize, with coking coal rebounding to some extent. During the week, rumors about a coal mine accident in Shanxi and customs clearance restrictions at the Mongolian border spread, boosting sentiment. Coupled with the China Mineral Resources talks, the raw materials side rebounded from lows. In the second half of the week, as rumors of maintenance at steel mills across various regions emerged, negative feedback expectations intensified somewhat, and raw materials pulled back. Approaching the weekend, however, the 10th round of coke price increases was initiated, pushing coking coal and coke futures higher. In the spot market, the off-season characteristics of end-users became increasingly evident, with the market restocking at low prices as needed. With spot prices remaining relatively firm, the spot-futures price spread continued to widen...

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] Coking Coal Market: Linfen low-sulphur coking coal offers are at 2,050 yuan/mt. For coking coal, recently the resumption of production at mines in Qinyuan County has been slow, and some mines have further cut production to varying degrees after resuming operations. Coking coal supply remains tight. However, downstream buyers are showing fear of high prices, with sales of some high-priced coal types turning sluggish. Online auctions have seen a marked increase in failed lots. In the short term, the coking coal market may start to stabilize. Coke Market: The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (dry quenched) is 2,090 yuan/mt. Regarding news, coke enterprises in various regions have initiated the tenth round of coke price increases, to be effective from 00:00 on July 6, 2026. In terms of supply, the ninth round of coke price increases have been implemented, leaving most coke producers profitable and with moderate production enthusiasm. However, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened, and traders are actively selling, resulting in an increase in coke supply. On the demand side, finished steel prices at steel mills have been drifting lower, and steel mill profits have further narrowed, prompting mills to start cutting hot metal production. With hot metal production expected to decline further, rigid demand for coke is weakening. Overall, market sentiment has weakened. In the short term, the coke market may be generally stable with a slight rise, while the tenth round of price increases may face some bargaining. [SMM Steel]

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] Coking Coal Market: Linfen low-sulphur coking coal is quoted at 2,050 yuan/mt. Regarding coking coal, the resumption of production at mines that had previously halted or cut output has been slow, and with strict safety supervision, supply is unlikely to see significant improvement, providing strong support for prices of key coal types. However, finished steel prices have pulled back, and downstream coke and steel companies are resistant to high-priced resources. In the online auction market, some high-priced coal types have failed to sell. Coke Market: The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (dry quenching) is 2,090 yuan/mt. On the news front, mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong regions have accepted an increase of 50 yuan/mt for wet-quenched coke and 55 yuan/mt for dry-quenched coke, to be implemented from 00:00 on July 1, 2026. Supply side, the ninth round of coke price increases has been implemented, with most coke enterprises profitable and operating at moderate rates. In addition, coke enterprises are proactively selling, keeping their own coke inventories within reasonable ranges. Demand side, hot metal output at steel mills is expected to decline, weakening the rigid demand for coke. Moreover, steel mill profits are thin, limiting their ability to absorb further price hikes. In summary, recent steel price weakness has led to a slight pullback in market sentiment. In the short term, the coke market is likely to remain generally stable with slight rise. [SMM Steel]

[Vietnam] Vietnam’s import scrap market softened this week, with Japanese H2 scrap falling to around 375 USD/tonne CFR Vietnam, down about 7 USD/tonne week on week. US-origin HMS 80:20 bulk scrap stood near 383 USD/tonne CFR Vietnam, also down around 7 USD/tonne. Weak Vietnamese finished steel demand kept mills cautious, with buyers delaying bookings and waiting for further price corrections. Although Japanese suppliers remained firm due to limited scrap generation, Vietnamese buying ideas stayed lower, leaving a clear bid-offer gap.

[India] Indian domestic HRC trade prices stayed stable, at around 601 USD/tonne EXW Mumbai and 617 USD/tonne EXW Chennai. Monsoon-related weak demand kept buyers focused on need-based restocking, while inventories remained high across the supply chain. Mills may raise July base prices by only around 8 USD/tonne. High prices, elevated stocks and rising Chinese finished steel imports are expected to keep the market bearish until late October.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Drift Higher, Spot Stainless Steel Transactions Remain Sluggish According to SMM on June 29, SS futures held up well. Base metals futures overall showed strength, and SS futures also rose in tandem. As of the close, the most-traded SS futures contract settled at 14,770 yuan/mt. In the spot market, although SS futures recovered somewhat, affected by recent market fluctuations, downstream wait-and-see sentiment was heavy. Coupled with already weak demand in the off-season, spot prices mostly held steady and transactions remained sluggish. SS futures most-traded contract. At 10:15 AM, SS2608 was at 14,715 yuan/mt, up 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 355-855 yuan/mt. In the spot market, average prices were unchanged for: Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil; cold-rolled 304/2B raw edge coil in Wuxi and Foshan; Wuxi cold-rolled 316L/2B coil; Wuxi hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil; and cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan. This week, stainless steel futures and spot prices consolidated with a weaker bias. Ex-China macro headwinds, coupled with industry sentiment disruptions, heated up market pessimism, with off-season fundamentals fully evident. Overall, the pattern was one of macro pressures weighing on futures, weakening off-season demand, traders cutting prices to reduce inventory, supply contraction underpinning inventory levels, and shrinking steel mill profits. Futures were dragged lower by monetary policy and raw material rumors, while spot prices sustained resilience supported by steel mills holding prices firm. However, end-user transactions were sluggish, and the overall market was bearish. Futures…

This week, ferrous metals fell continuously. During the week, there were many disturbances from unverified market rumors, but overall macro sentiment was weak, and expectations of rate hikes outside China continued to weigh on commodity sentiment. Earlier, rumors of a strike at BHP caused a slight rebound in iron ore; in the latter half of the week, Tangshan issued a notice on the "Tangshan Industrial Source Emission Reduction Plan for H2 2026," and combined with post-holiday inventory accumulation of the five major steel products, market sentiment was weak, and ferrous metals fell again. In the spot market, the off-season characteristics for end-users became more evident, market demand continued to weaken. While spot prices remained relatively firm, the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat, and positions in both futures and spot markets were unwound. Transactions were concluded at prices below market levels, further dragging down market prices......

HRC prices continued to decline this week, resulting in sluggish transactions. In terms of supply, rolling line maintenance increased this week, leading to a slight decrease in overall HRC production. Demand side, apparent demand for HRC deteriorated significantly this week, as plum rain and high temperatures suppressed cargo pick-up. Downstream manufacturing entered the off-season, with cautious procurement. Coupled with falling steel prices, this exacerbated the market's wait-and-see sentiment. In terms of inventory, SMM's nationwide social inventory of HRC across 86 warehouses (large sample) stood at 4.2912 million mt this week, up 64,500 mt WoW, up 1.53% WoW. By region, the inventory buildup in Northeast, Central, and North China was greater than in East China, while South China saw slight destocking. Cost side, the average ore price edged lower, while the eighth round of coke price increases took effect, providing slightly stronger cost support for HRC. Looking ahead, costs may continue to rise, but the weak reality of finished steel products is gradually emerging. The supply-demand imbalance is widening, leaving room for further HRC price declines. Overall, the most-traded HRC futures contract is expected to trade in the 3,260-3,360 range next week.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Briefing] In terms of supply, coke producers still face cost pressure, constraining their production enthusiasm. Currently, most coke producers maintain previous production restriction levels, while their shipment pace is relatively fast, keeping inventory low. On the demand side, steel mills are expected to see a slight reduction in hot metal output, but their purchasing enthusiasm for coke remains good. However, the steel products market is in the off-season, steel mill profitability is poor, and emission-reduction production cut policies in Tangshan have dealt a blow to rigid demand for coke. In summary, the short-term coke market is likely to be generally stable with a slight rise, and the ninth round of coke price increases is still expected to materialize.

[SMM Analysis] Finished Product Prices Fall in Tandem, Stainless Steel Mill Profits Slightly Compressed This week, stainless steel prices and production costs declined in tandem, with steel mill profit margins narrowing slightly. Using 304 cold-rolling as the assessment basis, the profit margin calculated with current raw material costs stood at 2.28%, while that based on inventory raw materials was 2.1%. On the nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices showed a downward pullback this week. Affected by weakening SHFE nickel and SS futures, coupled with disturbances from Indonesian nickel ore news, although NPI producers and traders maintained a strong willingness to hold prices firm, expectations of off-season maintenance and production cuts at stainless steel mills and the pullback in stainless steel prices led to low acceptance of high-priced raw materials, driving high-grade NPI prices to decline and pull back. As of this Friday, high-grade NPI with a mainstream grade of 10%-12% fell by 8.5 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,141 yuan per nickel unit. In the stainless steel scrap market, prices fell in tandem this week. SS futures pulled back and stainless steel finished product prices declined, dragging down stainless steel scrap. Currently in the traditional consumption off-season, end-use demand is weak, and expectations of lower steel scrap demand due to mill production cuts and maintenance, along with bearish macro sentiment, led to more cautious purchasing attitudes. Although stainless steel scrap holds an economic advantage over NPI and finds some bottom support, it is struggling to withstand the combined weight of multiple bearish factors, and the short-term market remains under pressure. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts in Shanghai fell by 50 yuan/mt, with the latest quotation at approximately 10,500 yuan/mt. On the chrome-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued to edge down this week. This week, TISCO and Tsingshan successively...