SMM Jul 11 news: Metals market: Overnight, base metals on the overseas and China markets showed mixed performance. LME aluminum led the losses with a 2.07% decline, while SHFE nickel led the gains with a 0.78% increase. The % changes of other metals were all within 1%. The alumina main contract fell 0.4%, and the cast aluminum main contract fell 0.78%. Overnight, ferrous metals all fell except for stainless steel and iron ore. Stainless steel edged up 0.03%, iron ore rose 0.27%, and both hot-rolled coil and rebar edged down. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 1.03%, and coke fell 1.15%. Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold fell 0.29%, with a weekly gain of 0.08%. COMEX silver fell 0.74%, with a weekly decline of 1.25%. In China, SHFE gold fell 0.56%, with a weekly decline of 0.83%. SHFE silver fell 0.58%, with a weekly decline of 2.63%. HSBC lowered its average gold price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing expectations for a hawkish shift in the US Fed's monetary policy and persistent pressure from a stronger US dollar. The bank cut its 2026 average price forecast to $4,560/oz from $4,864, and its 2027 forecast to $4,925 from $5,000. HSBC expects gold prices to fluctuate in a $3,800-$4,700 range for the rest of 2026 and settle near $4,750 at year-end. (Wall Street CN) Overnight closing prices as of 7:17 AM Jul 11: Macro Front China: [State Council Executive Meeting: Boost Scaled Development of Emerging Pillar Industries Along Entire Chain, Strengthen Basic Research and Key Software/Hardware R&D] According to CCTV, Premier Li Qiang presided over a State Council Executive Meeting to discuss work on cultivating emerging pillar industries. The meeting noted the need to boost the scaled development of emerging pillar industries along the entire chain, strengthen basic research and key software/hardware development, and accelerate technology iteration and ecosystem improvement. It also called for optimized regulatory models and guidance for local authorities to pursue differentiated development based on local conditions. (Jin10 Data App) [Ministry of Commerce, General Administration of Customs: Impose Temporary Export Prohibition on Helium] The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued an announcement stating that, in accordance with the Foreign Trade Law of the People's Republic of China, they have decided to impose temporary export prohibition management on helium (Customs Commodity Code: 2804290010). This announcement took effect on the date of its issue, and subsequent adjustments will be announced separately. (Jin10 Data App) [National Electricity Load Hits Record High of 1.518 Billion kW] This year, continuous new-quality development of the national economy and steady improvement in end-user electrification levels, coupled with recent high-temperature weather across many parts of the country, have seen electricity loads climb rapidly. July 10, China’s nationwide electricity load hit a record high for the first time this year, reaching a peak of 1.518 billion kW, an increase of 10 million kW over the previous record. Since the start of summer, the power grid in south China, along with multiple provincial-level grids including Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Ningxia, Gansu, Fujian, and Shaanxi, has collectively set new load records over 20 times. The repeated record highs in electricity demand this year have been jointly boosted by three main factors. First, industrial electricity consumption grew steadily. High-tech manufacturing and high-end equipment manufacturing flourished, while electricity use by emerging industries such as NEVs, energy storage, and computing equipment continued to expand. Second, electricity consumption in the service sector grew relatively quickly. Since the beginning of this year, electricity consumption growth rates for charging and battery swapping services and internet data services both exceeded 40%. Third, high temperatures drove up electricity loads. As living standards continue to improve, the proportion of air-conditioning cooling load nationwide approached 30%, exceeding 40% in some provinces. (National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)) [National Energy Administration: Non-fossil energy consumption share to increase by an average of about 1 ppt annually by 2028] The National Energy Administration (NEA) issued the *Energy Sector Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan (2026–2028)*. The plan proposes that by 2028, the share of non-fossil energy consumption should increase by an average of about 1 percentage point annually; the coal consumption rate of coal-fired power units should be reasonably controlled, with the proportion of coal power capacity meeting current benchmark energy efficiency standards striving to increase by 15 percentage points; a batch of zero-carbon and low-carbon coal mining areas and oil zones should be established; support should be given to building a batch of zero-carbon industrial parks, achieving significant progress in energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries, and continuously improving the level of green energy use. The plan also proposes vigorously promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction in thermal power. It will steadily and orderly shut down a batch of 300,000 kW class and below coal-fired power units that meet the conditions, and encourage the construction of replacement units that meet next-generation coal power standards ; promote the implementation of a batch of super (ultra) critical cross-generation upgrade retrofits for 600,000 kW class coal-fired power units. Support the implementation of zero-carbon and low-carbon fuel co-firing and Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) retrofits for units that meet the conditions, with carbon emission levels per kWh after retrofitting expected to be reduced by about 10%. Implement a batch of coal power, gas power, and new energy integration projects, supporting coal power and new energy integration to achieve carbon reduction effects through methods such as coupling thermal storage for peak shaving and peak load supply, and integrated collection and transmission. (Jin10 Data APP) US Dollar Side: Overnight, the US dollar index edged up 0.03% to 100.96, gaining 0.05% for the week. The US Fed’s semi-annual report showed that overall US economic activity maintained steady expansion in 2026, mainly driven by high-tech investment and government spending. Factory output grew strongly due to AI-related data center investment, with production capacity continuing to improve. However, the housing market stalled, and external economic growth was sluggish, weighed down by the Middle East conflict and tariffs. The labour market was generally stable, with both wages and productivity growing, but slowing immigration led to a decline in labour supply, and small businesses and households still faced relatively tight credit conditions. Inflation remained elevated and rose further in the spring, while asset prices were above historical norms. The financial system was sound overall, bank reserves were ample, and the private credit market operated normally despite some redemption pressures. Long-term inflation expectations were basically anchored near the 2% target, though uncertainty from the Iran conflict remained a major risk. (Jin10 Data APP) The report noted that the US Fed's preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index remained about double the 2% target as of May this year. This is also the first monetary policy report released since the new Fed Chairman Warsh took office. Warsh will appear before House and Senate committees next Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, for his semi-annual routine testimony review on monetary policy. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 66.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 33.7%. For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 31.0%, a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 51.1%, and a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 18.0%. (Jin10 Data APP) Other Currencies: Reuters, citing three sources familiar with the Bank of Japan's thinking, reported that the BOJ plans to keep interest rates unchanged in July but will maintain its policy guidance, committing to continue the process of rate hikes. One source said, "Downside risks to the economy have diminished somewhat as oil prices fall. But elevated costs from past imports will continue to put upward pressure on prices." Two other sources voiced similar views. They also said the BOJ may revise up its economic growth forecast for fiscal 2026 in its July quarterly report and continue to watch for inflation overshoot risks, as cost increases from yen weakness and strong AI demand partially offset some of the impact from falling oil prices. (Jin10 Data APP) ING economists Marieke Blom and Amrita Naik Nimbalkar said in a report that if the Eurozone's savings rate were to fall to pre-pandemic levels, it could unleash demand for goods and services worth about 1% of GDP. In Q1 this year, household savings accounted for 14.3% of disposable income, higher than the pre-pandemic five-year average of 12.5%. In the US, the savings rate in the final quarter of 2025 was 10.2%, suggesting a similar level could boost Eurozone GDP by nearly 2%. Consumption is expected to remain weak, as higher mortgage rates, slowing credit growth, and precautionary savings weigh on spending. However, the shift from bank deposits to investments could lay the groundwork for stronger spending and domestic demand in the coming years, they said. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro Front: Next week in China, data releases will include China's June trade balance in dollar terms, trade balance in yuan terms, June import and export YoY rates, Q2 GDP YoY rate, June total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, June industrial value added of enterprises above designated size YoY, June total electricity consumption YoY, and June total electricity consumption. In the US, data due includes the US June unadjusted CPI YoY, seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, unadjusted core CPI YoY, June PPI YoY, June PPI MoM, July New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index, initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, June retail sales MoM, July Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, June NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, weekly change in ADP employment figures for the week ending June 27, July NAHB Housing Market Index, May business inventories MoM, June pending home sales index MoM, June annualized housing starts, June total building permits, June import price index MoM, June industrial production MoM, preliminary July one-year inflation expectations, and preliminary July University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. For the Eurozone, releases include May industrial production MoM, May seasonally adjusted trade balance, May seasonally adjusted current account, final June CPI YoY, and final June CPI MoM. For the UK, data includes the May three-month GDP MoM rate, May manufacturing output MoM, May seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, and May industrial production MoM. Canada's May wholesale sales MoM and the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision on July 15 will also be released. Furthermore, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on H1 2026 import and export situation; the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly residential sales price report for 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on national economic performance; the NEA will release total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month. A new round of domestic refined oil price adjustments will commence. Fed Governor Waller will speak; Fed Chairman Warsh will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at the hearing on the "US Fed's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report"; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a fireside chat; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will speak; Fed Chairman Warsh will testify before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee at the hearing on the "US Fed's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report". On July 16, the US Fed will release its Beige Book on economic conditions; 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak; 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan will speak; Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson will speak on the economy and monetary policy. Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak; the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report, with Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers holding a monetary policy press conference. Crude Oil Side: Overnight, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic fell, with US crude down 0.79% and Brent crude down 1.42%. On a weekly basis, US crude rose 4.11% and Brent rose 4.3%, together snapping a four-week losing streak. The market is currently still pinning hopes on when navigation through the Strait of Hormuz can resume. Notably, after the escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran this week, the weekly crude oil price shook off the previous four-week losing streak, rising more than 4% for the week again. According to CCTV News, on Friday, July 10, local time, US President Trump posted on his social media platform "Truth Social" that Iran wants to continue "negotiations" with the US, and the US has agreed to continue negotiations. Trump also stated that the US has made it clear to Iran that the ceasefire is over. Subsequently, Xinhua News Agency, citing US media reports, said that a new round of US-Iran negotiations might be held in Switzerland next week. However, according to Iranian media Fars News, sources close to the Iranian negotiating team said claims that a new round of talks between Iran and the US would be held next week were untrue. According to CCTV, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said on Friday that Iran has never requested negotiations with the US, but agreed to a visit by mediators to Iran. (Wallstreetcn) A head office reporter learned from Iranian sources that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi will lead a diplomatic delegation to visit Oman on the 11th. During the visit, the two sides plan to engage in dialogue and exchange views on bilateral relations and the regional situation, particularly the current state of the Strait of Hormuz. (CCTV) Data released by international market service agency Kepler on the 10th showed that on July 9, the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz area dropped to 22 from 30 the previous day, marking two consecutive days of declining traffic in the strait. Kepler said this data includes both commercial and non-commercial vessels, with commercial vessel traffic slightly higher than non-commercial. "The renewed escalation of the military confrontation between the US and Iran has weakened market confidence that diplomatic efforts can bring stability to the situation in the near term." (Xinhua News Agency) Barclays: Risks around our Brent crude oil price forecasts of $96 per barrel for 2026 and $85 for 2027 are fairly balanced. This week, OPEC will release its monthly oil market report (specific release time to be determined, generally published around 18:00-21:00 Beijing time).

Western Mining Co., Ltd. (601168) disclosed an earnings forecast on July 9, expecting net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company for H1 2026 to be between 4 billion yuan and 4.3 billion yuan, up 114% to 130% YoY.During the reporting period, prices in the non-ferrous metals market remained robust. Prices of copper, gold and silver products increased compared with the same period last year, driving the company’s performance up YoY.

From a supply-demand balance perspective, China's lithium carbonate market exhibited a tight balance in H1 2026, with sellers and buyers continuously seeking new equilibrium points amid bargaining.

This week, finished steel rebounded slightly after consolidating at lows, while coking coal and coke showed overall satisfactory performance. At the start of the week, with no significant changes in fundamentals or news, ferrous metals continued to consolidate at lows; in the second half, market rumors emerged that BHP’s union announced a work stoppage action. Expectations of short-term supply tightness from the potential stoppage, combined with rising energy costs due to Middle East conflicts, drove a rebound in iron ore prices, which in turn lifted ferrous metals; online auctions for coking coal showed mixed results...

[SMM Analysis: “Tight Resource Balance” Meets “Computing Power Revaluation”—2026 H1 Tin Price Deep Review and H2 Outlook] In 2026 H1, tin prices exhibited a wide-ranging tug-of-war pattern of “reaching record highs—pulling back to consolidate—rallying again—consolidating at highs.” The most-traded LME tin contract surged from about $42,000/mt at the beginning of the year to a record high of $59,000/mt, pulled back to $40,500 in March, rallied again to around $58,000 from April to May, and fell below $50,000 at end-June; the most-traded SHFE tin contract surged from 330,000 yuan/mt at the beginning of the year to a record high of 470,000 yuan/mt, dipped to 322,600 yuan/mt in March, touched 451,000 yuan/mt again in early June, and pulled back below 400,000 yuan/mt at month-end.

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 10 Jul , 2026

SMM, July 10: Metals market: As of midday close, domestic base metals nearly all rose, with SHFE copper up 1.67%, SHFE aluminum up 0.63%, SHFE lead edging down, SHFE zinc up 1.34%, SHFE tin up 2.18%, and SHFE nickel up 1.1%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.57%, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.37%, the most-traded lithium carbonate futures fell 1.67%, the most-traded silicon metal futures rose 2.74%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 2.28%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore rose 0.74%, rebar edged up, and hot-rolled coil edged down. Stainless steel fell 0.49%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 2.09%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.51%. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:41, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper rose 0.38%, LME aluminum rose 0.28%, LME lead fell 0.18%, LME zinc rose 0.39%, LME tin rose 0.7%, and LME nickel rose 0.18%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 0.12% and COMEX silver rose 0.16%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 1.15%; the most-traded SHFE silver futures contract rose 3.48%. Additionally, by midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 2.53%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 3.65%. As of midday close, the most-traded container shipping (Europe route) futures contract rose 1.09% to 2,415 points. As of 11:41 on July 10, midday futures overview: Spot and Fundamentals Zinc: In the Tianjin market, #0 zinc ingot mainly traded at 24,420-24,910 yuan/mt, Zijin traded at 24,540-24,970 yuan/mt, #1 zinc ingot traded around 24,430-24,860 yuan/mt, Zijin was quoted at a discount of 0-10 yuan/mt against the 2608 contract, Huxin was quoted at 26,010 yuan/mt, #0 zinc ingot was quoted at a discount of 60-130 yuan/mt against the 2608 contract, and the Tianjin market was quoted at a discount of around 50 yuan/mt against the Shanghai market... Macro Front Domestic: [National Energy Administration: By 2028, Non-Fossil Energy Consumption Share to Increase by About 1 Percentage Point Annually] The National Energy Administration issued the "Energy Sector Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan (2026-2028)." It proposes that by 2028, the non-fossil energy consumption share will increase by an average of about 1 percentage point annually; reasonably control coal consumption of coal-fired power units, striving to raise the proportion of coal power capacity meeting current energy efficiency benchmark standards by 15 percentage points; build a number of zero-carbon and low-carbon coal mining and oil areas; support the construction of a number of zero-carbon parks, achieve significant progress in energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries, and continuously improve green energy use. It proposed vigorously promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction in thermal power. A batch of eligible coal-fired power units of 300,000 kW and below will be shut down in a prudent and orderly manner, and the construction of replacement units is encouraged according to the requirements of new-generation coal-fired power ; a batch of 600,000 kW coal-fired power units will undergo ultra-supercritical cross-generation upgrading and retrofitting. Support will be given to eligible units for the co-firing of zero-carbon and low-carbon fuels and the retrofitting and construction of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS). After retrofitting and construction, the carbon emission level per kilowatt-hour should be reduced by about 10%. A number of projects integrating coal-fired power, gas-fired power and new energy will be implemented, supporting the coupling of coal-fired power and new energy through thermal energy storage and other energy storage for peak shaving and peak support, integrated collection and transmission, thereby achieving the effect of integrated carbon reduction. (Jin10 Data APP) [China’s Road Transport Capacity Continues to Expand, New Energy Truck Penetration Rate Exceeds 40%] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the "2026 China Road Transport Capacity Development Report" today (the 10th). According to the report, the road transport market underwent continuous adjustment and optimization in 2025, with the capacity structure accelerating its upgrade towards scale, specialization, and green development; enterprises saw improvements in their risk resilience and operational resilience. Survey data shows that in the current road freight transport capacity structure, internal combustion engine vehicles remain dominant, accounting for about 50%, but new energy vehicles have already formed an irreversible substitution trend in specific scenarios. Among the surveyed enterprises, the penetration rate of new energy trucks was 44.4%. Among enterprises that have already purchased new energy vehicles, 37.5% chose to "continue expanding the new energy fleet," and 37.5% chose to "maintain the current scale." (CCTV News) [New Breakthrough in Green Hydrogen: China Achieves Minute-Level Preparation of Platinum Group Metal Catalysts] Platinum group metal catalysts are core key materials supporting modern industries such as energy, chemical, and environmental sectors. Recently, a team led by Professor Hu Wenbin from Tianjin University proposed a "transient assembly" strategy, developing a millisecond-scale periodic heat pulse technology that achieved ultra-fast synthesis and precise regulation of platinum group metal core-shell structure catalysts, opening up a completely new technical pathway for the atomically precise preparation of platinum group catalysts. The related results were published online in the international academic journal *Science* on July 10, Beijing time. (Xinhua News Agency) [Guangdong: Plans to Accelerate Technological Breakthroughs in Key Frontier Fields Including 6G, Optical Communications, and Satellite Communications] Recently, the "Guangdong Province Information and Communication Industry 15th Five-Year Plan (Draft for Public Comments)" was released to solicit public opinions. It mentioned supporting basic telecommunications enterprises in actively participating in provincial key R&D programs, leveraging strategic scientific and technological forces such as the Pengcheng National Laboratory and industry leaders to help Guangdong’s information and communication industry establish a sound whole-process innovation ecosystem, accelerating technological breakthroughs in key frontier fields including 6G, optical communications, satellite communications, quantum communications, and agentic communications, and strengthening research on new network architectures such as integrated space-ground networks and integrated communication-sensing-computing networks. Focus on cultivating and developing the new 6G track, vigorously promoting the R&D and industrialisation of core components such as next-generation digital baseband chips, RF front-end chips, and 6G modules, as well as next-generation network communication equipment. Conduct application technology research on the integration of quantum encryption with information communication networks and the convergence of quantum computing with classical computing, and achieve breakthroughs in key technologies such as quantum computing, quantum materials, quantum precision measurement, quantum security, and critical core equipment. (Jin10 Data APP) [PBOC reverse repo operations led to a net withdrawal of 43 billion yuan on the day, and a net withdrawal of 416.5 billion yuan for the week] The PBOC conducted 20 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, and with 63 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing, the net withdrawal for the day was 43 billion yuan. During the week, the PBOC conducted 62 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo and 1,000 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations. With 678.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repos maturing, the net withdrawal for the week was 416.5 billion yuan. US dollar side: As of 11:41, the US dollar index fell 0.28% to 100.66. According to CME "FedWatch": The probability that the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged in July is 74.9%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 25.1%. For September, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 35.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 51.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-bp hike is 13.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) Perli, manager of the New York Fed’s Open Market Account, said that the reserve management purchase operations have no preset course, and the New York Fed’s Open Market Trading Desk may raise or lower purchase amounts depending on money market conditions. Additionally, Perli said that as Fed Chairman Warsh appoints a working group on the Fed’s balance sheet, the trading desk is ready to implement any changes and interest-rate control frameworks the committee may decide to pursue. The Fed began reserve management purchase operations last December, anticipating a rapid drain in reserves in April as tax payments flowed into the Treasury General Account. When the Treasury’s account balance at the Fed increases, reserves in the banking system decline. (Jin10 Data APP) Dallas Fed President Logan said that if the Federal Open Market Committee conducts open market operations through a voluntary central clearing mechanism, it would help improve the efficiency and effectiveness of operations and enhance the stability of US financial markets. Logan noted that such arrangements could improve the use of the Fed’s tools, such as the Standing Repo Facility. The facility is designed to provide liquidity to eligible financial institutions, but market usage remains low. Some believe that streamlining the clearing process could enhance its appeal. She also noted that market leverage levels need to be carefully managed and that financial markets must strike an appropriate balance between the returns and risks of leverage, as well as between leverage and liquidity. (Jinshi Data APP) The latest data showed that for the week ending July 4, which included the US Independence Day holiday, initial jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 215,000, below market expectations of 217,000 and persisting near historic lows. However, continuing claims, which reflect the state of re-employment among the unemployed, rose to 1.81 million, hitting a new high since March. Persistently low initial jobless claims, together with recent non-farm payrolls data, paint a picture of a US labour market characterised by shrinking layoffs and a slowdown in hiring. (Wall Street CN) Data-wise: Today will see the release of figures including Germany's final CPI MoM for June, France's final CPI MoM for June, Switzerland's June consumer confidence index, Canada's June employment numbers, China's June M2 money supply YoY, China's new RMB loans for the first half of the year, and China's total social financing growth for the first half of the year. Also in focus: a speech by 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan; and the provisional listing of SK Hynix's American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) on the Nasdaq on July 10. Crude oil: As of 11:41, oil prices for both benchmarks edged up, with WTI crude rising 0.25% and Brent crude gaining 0.21%. Technical-level talks between the US and Iran are ongoing, with the market closely watching how the US-Iran situation unfolds. According to Fox News, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that Trump believes oil prices will remain at low levels in the future. India's state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has approved an expansion of the country's strategic petroleum reserves, highlighting efforts to strengthen energy resilience following the shock of the Iran conflict. According to a document, the board of India's largest oil and gas producer has approved the addition of 1.75 million mt of national crude oil reserve capacity in Mangalore, Karnataka. Specific costs and a timetable have yet to be announced. Upon completion, the project will increase the reserves managed by the Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd. The company currently operates underground storage facilities at three locations on the east and west coasts with a total capacity of 5.33 million mt. In addition, two new sites are under construction that will add 6.5 million mt of storage space. ONGC stated in Friday's filing that the project is of "national importance" and that related supporting facilities will be developed under the directive of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ►] ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Capital Disturbances and Off-Season Bearishness Weigh on Stainless Steel Futures and Spot, Inventory Accumulates According to SMM on July 10, SS futures fell further, pulling back. Although nonferrous metals had strengthened recently, SS was under capital pressure, extending its downtrend and declining further. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,320 yuan/mt. On the spot market front, weighed by the consecutive decline of SS futures, stainless steel mills' willingness to hold prices firm weakened noticeably, and they also lowered NPI purchase prices. Market confidence in the outlook was markedly insufficient, and overall transactions were in the doldrums. Traders cut prices to sell, with low-priced cargoes frequently appearing. The most-traded SS futures contract: At 10:15 a.m., SS2608 traded at 14,345 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 525-925 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi held steady; for cold-rolled, unedged 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi fell 125 yuan/mt, and the average in Foshan fell 150 yuan/mt; the cold-rolled 316L/2B coil price in Wuxi remained flat; the hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi was quoted unchanged; and cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices in both Wuxi and Foshan were unchanged. This week, macro and funding disturbances intensified, and stainless steel futures moved in an independent weak trend, with the futures chart significantly diverging from the pace of SHFE nickel and other nonferrous metals. During the week, fund sentiment switched repeatedly, driving SS futures into wild swings. The key support level of 14,500 yuan/mt was broken earlier, and the overall trend center continued to shift lower, ...

[Rainy Season Arrives, Galvanizing Demand Weakens]: This week, the operating rate of the galvanizing industry was 53.51%, down 1.05 percentage points WoW. From the raw material side, zinc prices consolidated and rebounded this week, downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened, wait-and-see sentiment was relatively strong, and they mainly drew down raw material inventories, leading to a decline in zinc ingot inventories at galvanizing enterprises.

SMM, July 10: Metals market side, overnight, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 1.58%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.48%, SHFE lead fell 0.19%, SHFE zinc rose 1.26%, SHFE tin rose 2.26%, and SHFE nickel rose 1.08%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.29%, and the most-traded casting aluminum contract rose 0.63%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Stainless steel fell 0.59%, iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar fell 0.13%, and hot-rolled coil was flat at 3,297 yuan/mt. Coking coal and coke side, the most-traded coking coal contract fell 2.79%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 2.15%. Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals all rose. LME copper rose 1.71%, LME aluminum rose 2.29%, LME lead rose 0.19%, LME zinc rose 2.49%, LME tin rose 2.18%, and LME nickel rose 1.13%. Overnight, precious metals side : COMEX gold rose 1.23%, and COMEX silver rose 3.1%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 1.31%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 3.22%. According to Polish central bank Governor Grabinski, the bank purchased billions of dollars worth of gold during the recent dip in gold prices. At a press conference in Warsaw on Thursday, Grabinski said the bank has purchased 82 mt of gold so far this year. This means that since the last official data release in April, the bank added another 37 mt of gold, worth approximately $5 billion at current prices. “Taking advantage of the recent price decline, we have been continuously purchasing gold,” Grabinski said. Poland reported more gold purchases than any other central bank in 2025 and is expected to continue this record this year. Gold prices have fallen over 10% since April. Grabinski reiterated the Polish central bank’s target of 700 mt of gold reserves. He said the bank currently holds 632.4 mt of gold, of which 105 mt is stored in Poland and the rest is held in London and New York. (Jinshi Data APP) Bernstein raised its 2026 gold price forecast, expecting a H2 gold price target of $4,375 per ounce and a full-year target price of $4,533. The firm believes that continued central bank purchases and the high probability that the US Fed will not cut interest rates over the next 12 months will be key factors supporting gold prices. Bernstein expects the Fed to raise rates at most 1 to 2 times, and gold ETF outflow pressure will also be limited. Bernstein noted that in Q2 2026, rising real interest rates caused gold prices to pull back from $4,650/oz to around $4,000, but as rate expectations stabilize, gold still has upside room. The firm also warned that if inflation persistently exceeds expectations, prompting the Fed to hike rates more aggressively, that would become a major risk to gold’s upward movement. (Jinshi Data APP) As of 7:12 AM on July 10, overnight closing market data: Macro front China side: [State Council Issues “15th Five-Year Plan” Carbon Peak Action Plan: Carbon Emissions to Decrease 17% in 2030 Compared with 2025] On July 9, the “15th Five-Year Plan Carbon Peak Action Plan” was released, charting a “roadmap” for China to meet its carbon peak target before 2030. Over the next five years, China’s energy structure will undergo further adjustment and optimization. By 2030, China’s carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by 17% from 2025 levels, and non-fossil energy consumption will account for 25% of the total. In terms of specific measures, the Action Plan clearly mandates accelerating energy structure adjustment and optimization and vigorously promoting non-fossil energy development. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, new electricity consumption will be increasingly covered by new clean energy generation. The Action Plan intensifies efforts to promote green and low-carbon industrial development, with a series of new measures being introduced. On one hand, it aims to deepen the low-carbon transition of traditional industries, advancing energy-saving and carbon-reduction projects in steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, petrochemical engineering and other key industries. On the other hand, it focuses on vigorously developing emerging green and low-carbon industries such as green energy, green manufacturing, and green services. For existing capacity, it emphasizes “improving quality through green transition,” guiding enterprises from a zero-sum cost-driven competition mindset toward an innovative approach of low-carbon and zero-carbon development. For new capacity, it stresses “cultivating the new with green transition,” nurturing and expanding strategic emerging and future industries characterized by green, low-carbon features. In the transportation sector, the Action Plan proposes that by 2030, the ownership share of NEVs should reach 30%, and the ownership share of new energy operating vehicles should reach 25%. By the end of 2025, national NEV ownership accounted for about 12%, meaning this share will more than double within five years. For ordinary citizens, private NEV ownership will further increase during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. US dollar side: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.14% to 100.93. The latest data shows that for the week ending July 4 (which includes the US Independence Day holiday), US initial jobless claims decreased by 2,000 to 215,000, below market expectations of 217,000, remaining near historic lows. However, continuing claims, which reflect the re-employment situation for the unemployed, rose to 1.81 million, the highest level since March. Initial jobless claims persistently running low, together with recent non-farm payrolls data, paint a picture of a US labor market characterized by “reduced layoffs, slowing hiring.” (Wall Street News) Fed Chairman Warsh Kevin has established five working groups to conduct a comprehensive review of the Fed’s monetary policy operating framework, covering areas such as balance sheet management, policy tools, and the impact of artificial intelligence. The Fed stated that the working groups will operate independently, conduct fact-based studies, and submit rigorous analyses to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The review will assess whether there is room for improvement in policy tools, analytical methods, and the policy framework. The review teams include several prominent economists and former central bank officials. Among them, Harvard economist Chetty Raj will co-lead the data working group, tech investor Andreessen Marc will head the productivity and employment working group, and former White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Mankiw Gregory will co-lead the inflation working group. Warsh said that the US economy has undergone dramatic changes over the past generation, and the current transformation is occurring at a faster pace, so the Fed needs to ensure it is in optimal condition to achieve its dual mandate of price stability and maximizing employment. (Jinshi Data APP) Additionally, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s “Monthly Budget Review: June 2026,” the US federal budget deficit totaled approximately $1.4 trillion in the first nine months of fiscal year 2026, an increase of $35 billion compared to the same period last fiscal year. Federal revenues over the period were $4.2 trillion, up $142 billion or 4%, while outlays were $5.5 trillion, up $178 billion or 3%. (CCTV) New York Fed Open Market Account Manager Perli stated that reserve management purchase operations have no preset course, and the New York Fed’s open market trading desk can adjust purchase amounts higher or lower depending on money market conditions. Additionally, Perli said that amid Fed Chairman Warsh appointing a working group on the Fed’s balance sheet, the trading desk is ready to implement any changes and interest rate control frameworks the committee may decide to adopt. The Fed began conducting reserve management purchase operations last December, driven by expectations that reserves would decline rapidly in April as tax payments flowed into the Treasury General Account. When the Treasury’s account balance at the Fed increases, reserves in the banking system decline. (Jinshi Data APP) Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that if the FOMC conducts open market operations through a voluntarily participated central clearing mechanism, it would help improve operational efficiency and effectiveness, and enhance US financial market stability. Logan noted that such an arrangement could improve the use of Fed tools, such as the Standing Repo Facility, which aims to provide liquidity to eligible institutions but has seen relatively low market usage so far. Some believe that simplifying clearing processes could increase its attractiveness. She also stated that market leverage levels need to be carefully managed, and financial markets must maintain an appropriate balance between the benefits and risks of leverage, and between leverage and liquidity. (Jinshi Data APP) According to CME “FedWatch”: The probability of the Fed holding rates steady in July is 74.9%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 25.1%. Probability for the September meeting: holding rates steady at 35.7%, a cumulative 25-basis-point hike at 51.1%, and a cumulative 50-basis-point hike at 13.1%. (Jinshi Data APP) Other currencies side: Minutes from the ECB’s June meeting showed the bank could no longer ignore the energy shock, projecting that rising energy prices would push medium-term inflation above its 2% target. The ECB Governing Council unanimously decided to raise key interest rates to 2.25% last month, becoming the first major central bank to hike rates due to elevated energy prices caused by the Iran war. The minutes stated: “The current situation clearly falls no longer into the category of shocks that can be looked through.” “The longer energy prices stay high, the more likely it is that they will push up broader inflation through indirect and second-round effects. This increases the risk that the energy shock becomes entrenched in underlying inflation and medium- to long-term inflation expectations.” (Jinshi Data APP) Macro side: Data scheduled for release today include Germany’s June CPI final monthly rate, France’s June CPI final monthly rate, Switzerland’s June consumer confidence index, Canada’s June employment change, China’s June M2 money supply annual rate, China’s June year-to-date new yuan loans, and China’s June year-to-date aggregate social financing growth. Also in focus: 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan’s speech; SK Hynix’s American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) are tentatively scheduled to list on Nasdaq this July 10. Crude oil side: Overnight, both oil futures fell, with WTI oil down 2.33% and Brent oil down 2.72%. Although US-Iran military conflict escalated overnight, the market’s actual reaction was notably subdued, with crude oil closing lower. Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad noted that the market views this attack as another “controlled escalation,” based on the premise that the economy can withstand the shock. Goldman Sachs’ Privorotsky shared a similar view, indicating that the market signal suggests no real interest from any party in expanding the conflict, preferring instead to maintain bargaining leverage. However, Privorotsky also warned that while crude oil prices have pulled back, the refined product prices that actually feed into inflation have yet to follow. (Wall Street News) The US Central Command stated that Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz. Since early May, US forces have been assisting in safeguarding navigational safety in this vital international trade route, with over 800 merchant ships and 380 million barrels of crude oil successfully passing through the strait. (Jinshi Data APP) Additionally, sources said that the Saratov refinery in Russia has been shut down since Wednesday following a drone attack. (Jinshi Data APP)