Published: Aug 10, 2026 - 10:13 PM (Kitco News) – Gold’s nearly $300 breakout rally last week is generating renewed momentum in the market, and even if prices need more time to digest this latest move, one fund manager said the precious metal has a clear path back to $5,000 an ounce. In an interview with Kitco News, David Miller, CIO and Co-Founder of Catalyst Funds and portfolio manager of the Strategy Shares Gold Enhanced Yield ETF (GOLY) said that gold may still need time to reclaim its previous highs, but the long-term forces supporting the precious metal remain firmly in place as persistent government deficits, inflation and central bank diversification continue to undermine the appeal of traditional fixed-income assets. Miller said he believes gold could eventually return to $5,000 an ounce, although investors should not necessarily expect an immediate move back to those levels. “I think you could see 5,000 an ounce, but I think it could take two, two and a half years to get back there,” he said. Miller said gold’s previous move above $5,000 was fueled by several factors, including falling interest rates, speculative investment demand and, most importantly, aggressive central-bank buying. Although some of the urgency behind that buying has diminished, Miller said the structural case for sovereign institutions to diversify away from the U.S. dollar remains intact. He noted that geopolitical and economic tensions have forced countries to reconsider how much of their sovereign wealth they want tied to dollar-denominated assets. Even though some of the immediate tariff-related pressures have eased, he expects China in particular to remain a significant long-term buyer of the precious metal. Combined with continued U.S. deficit spending, that central bank demand should provide an important floor beneath the market, Miller added. “I think we can grow mid-high single digits in terms of the price of gold for this year,” he said. Miller’s bullish long-term outlook comes even as gold has moved through a period of consolidation following an exceptionally strong run. He said the market’s fundamental investment thesis has not materially changed despite the pullback. The bigger issue, he said, is the deteriorating long-term purchasing power of fiat currencies as governments continue running large deficits against already elevated debt levels. Miller explained that traditionally there are three broad ways governments can ultimately address their debt burdens: inflation, dramatic productivity improvements or austerity. The first is to reduce the real value of debt through inflation. The second is for economic productivity to improve substantially, potentially through artificial intelligence. Miller said a surge in productivity could allow economies to grow fast enough to offset some of the inflationary pressure associated with elevated debt. “You could have a combination of inflating your way out of it with AI-led improvements in productivity,” he said. The third option is austerity, which Miller described as politically difficult because of the economic pain associated with significant spending cuts. Miller added that inflation running around 3%, rather than returning all the way to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, would not necessarily be problematic if nominal economic growth remained strong enough. “If you don't hit a 2% inflation target and you're somewhere in the threes … and you have some productivity growth, I think that's actually okay long term,” he said. For gold investors, persistent inflation also strengthens the argument for holding real assets, particularly if yields on bonds fail to provide attractive returns after accounting for inflation and taxes. That dilemma is central to the investment thesis behind the Strategy Shares Gold Enhanced Yield ETF, Miller said. Traditional bonds provide income, but their purchasing-power benefits can quickly disappear when inflation is running close to their nominal yields. After taxes, Miller said investors can effectively end up with a negative real return. Gold and other real assets offer inflation protection, but physical gold itself does not generate income. GOLY is designed to bridge that gap by combining exposure tied to gold with income generated from investment-grade corporate bonds. “We think this marriage of owning bonds overlaid with the price of gold is a way to give investors their cake and let them eat it too,” Miller said. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-08-10/gold-could-reclaim-5000oz-two-years-prices-could-gain-9-2026-catalyst-funds

Published: Aug 08, 2026 - 7:23 AM (Kitco News) - Gold investors have spent much of 2026 confronting a frustrating paradox: the geopolitical and fiscal backdrop has arguably never looked more supportive for a safe-haven asset, yet gold has struggled in recent months as rising real interest rate expectations have dramatically increased the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding metal. However, the important question for gold investors is no longer whether real yields are high; they unquestionably are. The question is whether they can move materially higher from here. For a growing number of analysts, the answer is: no. This week BCA Research argued that “the worst of real rates’ headwind to gold is likely behind us,” with Chief Commodities Strategist Roukaya Ibrahim noting that investors do not need Federal Reserve rate cuts to ignite another rally. They simply need real yields and the U.S. dollar to stop rising. That distinction is critical. Gold has already absorbed an extraordinary monetary-policy repricing. At the beginning of the year, markets anticipated one or two rate cuts. Today, investors are contemplating one or two hikes. Jefferies estimates that 10-year TIPS yields have risen to around 2.41% from 1.94% at the start of 2026. That abrupt reversal helped drive gold roughly 25% below its peak. Yet gold continues to defend the psychologically important $4,000-an-ounce level. The World Gold Council noted that gold finished July virtually unchanged at $4,027, even as rising yields remained a headwind. More importantly, European gold ETFs attracted inflows despite real Bund yields sitting at 15-year highs. In other words, gold has survived nearly everything the opportunity-cost argument could throw at it. Jefferies reaches a similar conclusion from history. Gold's performance following previous real-rate shocks depended less on the absolute level of yields than on whether the upward pressure subsequently subsided. The firm argues that much of today's repricing has already occurred and that easing real-rate pressure could allow gold and mining equities to recover. Meanwhile, the structural bullish forces haven't disappeared. Central banks continue accumulating gold, de-dollarization remains an important theme, fiscal concerns haven't gone away, and geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated. BCA expects official-sector demand to provide a floor even if central-bank purchases no longer generate the explosive upside they once did. Even inflation could ultimately become supportive, although not for the simplistic reason that gold is an inflation hedge. The World Gold Council argues that inflation becomes much more meaningful when it pushes above 4%, particularly if accompanied by falling real rates, dollar weakness or increasing recession risks. The bullish argument, therefore, doesn't require a collapsing economy, emergency Fed easing or another inflation crisis. It merely requires the forces that pushed gold down to stop getting worse. After one of the most aggressive opportunity-cost shocks gold has faced in years, that threshold may finally have been reached. And if real yields have indeed peaked, gold's biggest headwind could soon become its most important tailwind. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-08-07/golds-biggest-headwind-may-finally-be-peaking

[SMM Tin Midday Review: As supply and demand remain sluggish, SHFE tin continues to consolidate, and spot market transactions recover slightly.]

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of July 27 – July 31, 2026. Conflicting RKAB supplementary quota signals and a hawkish Fed swing the benchmark contract to a RMB 30/mt gain in the week of August 3–7.

(Kitco News) - Gold's recent correction has likely run its course as the key macro headwinds that pressured the precious metal are beginning to fade, according to one Canadian research firm, which argues that real interest rates have likely peaked and the U.S. dollar will eventually turn from a headwind into a tailwind for bullion. After establishing a neutral position in Spring, Commodity analysts at BCA Research now see attractive value and are recommending investors start accumulating gold with a stop-loss at $3,900 an ounce. "The worst of real rates' headwind to gold is likely behind us," the firm said in its latest report, adding that while geopolitical risks tied to the Middle East could still create short-term volatility, its base case is for U.S. real rates to remain broadly stable over the coming months, helping gold establish a bottom. Speaking with Kitco News, Roukaya Ibrahim, chief commodities strategist at BCA Research, said investors should focus less on inflation and more on the outlook for real yields. "The recommendation to buy now basically embeds that real rates and the U.S. dollar are not going to rise further from here, and that headwind is already gone," she said, noting that gold has held the $4,000-an-ounce level despite recent macro headwinds. BCA's report argues that gold has returned to trading primarily as a macro asset after several years during which central bank buying overwhelmed traditional market drivers. The research firm believes real rates and the U.S. dollar have once again become the dominant forces determining bullion prices, while central bank purchases now provide a floor under the market rather than acting as the primary catalyst for further gains. Although markets have priced in additional Federal Reserve tightening, Ibrahim said she sees little risk that policymakers become more hawkish than current expectations. "Even if the Fed does hike, I don't see them hiking by more than what's already priced in," she said. "The odds of that are quite low" unless oil prices experience a significant and sustained surge that pushes inflation expectations materially higher. That view underpins BCA's bullish stance on gold . Ibrahim said gold does not require imminent rate cuts to rally—only confirmation that the peak in real yields is already behind the market. "The headwind from opportunity costs is going to ease, and it's going to turn into a tailwind," she said. "Not because the U.S. economy is going to crack, but because the tightening is already priced in." BCA also pushes back against the common perception that gold is primarily an inflation hedge. Instead, the firm argues that inflation only benefits bullion when it undermines confidence in the Federal Reserve and suppresses real yields. " Gold 's ability to act as an inflation hedge is overstated. Real rates, rather than inflation, determine gold's performance," the report said. As long as inflation expectations remain well anchored and the Fed maintains credibility, higher inflation initially weighs on gold by pushing real yields higher. Even if another oil-driven inflation shock emerges, Ibrahim expects any rise in real rates to prove temporary. "If we do get a price spike and inflation spike, then probably very quickly the attention is going to shift from it being an inflation story to being a growth story," she said. That transition would eventually cap the Fed's hawkishness and establish "a bottom for gold prices." The firm also sees longer-term support coming from structural forces, including reserve diversification away from the U.S. dollar and persistent central bank buying. While BCA believes the pace of official-sector purchases has likely peaked, it argues that ongoing buying continues to justify elevated gold prices and should prevent a return to 2022 price levels absent a shift by central banks to become net sellers. Over the longer term, BCA also expects the greenback to weaken as structural pressures build. "The greenback will shift from being a headwind to a tailwind to the yellow metal," the report concluded. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-08-06/now-time-buy-gold-bca-sees-bullish-opportunity-real-yields-peak

06 Aug 2026 Thought of the day Gold climbed above USD 4,250/oz for the first time since June, breaking above its recent trading range of between USD 4,000/oz and USD 4,100/oz. Reported Chinese institutional buying and inflows into exchange-trade funds (ETFs) have supported the latest price movement, while recent joint government efforts by the US and Japan to stabilize the yen may also have helped reduce the risk of a sell-off in US Treasuries. Near-term risks remain, especially if US data stay firm, oil prices keep inflation concerns alive, or markets continue to price in a more hawkish Federal Reserve rate path. But while the immediate backdrop may remain volatile, the medium- to long-term case for gold still looks supported by several durable drivers. We expect gold prices to rise toward USD 5,000/oz in the first half of 2027. Lower real rates should eventually revive investment demand. Gold does not pay income, so higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding it. But we expect inflation to gradually moderate, allowing the Fed to hold interest rates steady this year before resuming easing in 2027. This should create a more favorable backdrop for gold, as a shift toward lower policy-rate expectations would likely reduce real yields, weigh on the US dollar, and help boost investment demand for gold. A softer dollar and diversification flows remain powerful medium-term supports. The US dollar may stay resilient in the near term, but structural challenges including large US fiscal and external deficits and already elevated investor allocations to US dollar assets mean there is scope for renewed weakness. A weaker dollar has historically been a powerful tailwind for gold, while a renewed focus on diversification away from the US dollar should benefit the precious metal. Central bank buying provides a durable floor for the market. Central bank demand has remained an important pillar of support, even when private investment demand has been lackluster. We expect annual central bank purchases to remain elevated, supported by a long-term desire to reduce exposure to USD assets. Following a strong second quarter, when central banks bought 289 metric tons of gold, we continue to estimate full-year purchases in the 750-1,000 metric ton range this year. While these flows may not be enough to drive prices sharply higher on their own, they can help stabilize the market and offset weaker areas such as jewelry demand. So, we think investors should separate near-term trading risk from the longer-term investment case. In fact, periods of weakness toward USD 4,000/oz or below may ultimately prove to be opportunities to build strategic exposure. For investors with an affinity for real assets, we continue to view a mid-single-digit gold allocation as appropriate within a well diversified portfolio. Investors can also consider a broad commodities exposure for better portfolio diversification. Source: https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealthmanagement/insights/chief-investment-office/house-view/daily/2026/latest-06082026.html

SMM August 7 News: Metal Markets: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market broadly rose. SHFE copper edged up 0.1%. SHFE aluminum gained 0.38%. SHFE lead edged up 0.1%. SHFE zinc rose 1.11%, while SHFE tin fell 0.98%. SHFE nickel dropped 1.22%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract edged up 0.09%, while the most-traded foundry aluminum contract fell 0.52%. Overnight, ferrous metals all rose. Stainless steel edged up, iron ore gained 0.35%, and rebar rose 0.17%. Hot-rolled coil (HRC) increased 0.59%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract rose 1.54%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 2.48%. Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper shot up to an intraday high of $14,369.5/mt, a level not seen since January 29, before eventually closing with a 0.4% decline. LME aluminum gained 0.65%. LME lead fell 0.29%. LME zinc rose 0.64%. LME tin dropped 1.43%. LME nickel fell 2.45%. Overnight Precious Metals : COMEX gold fell 0.15%, and COMEX silver dropped 0.81%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold futures contract fell 0.01%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract declined 0.93%. Closing prices as of 7:03 AM, August 7: Macro Front Domestic (China) News: [Guangdong: Promote the Integration of Futures and Spot Markets for Key Commodities like Iron Ore, Crude Oil, and Rubber to Enhance Pricing Influence on Bulk Commodities] The "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the China (Guangdong) Pilot Free Trade Zone (Draft for Comments)" was released for public comment. It mentioned plans to expand financial opening-up in an orderly manner. International financial institutions will be encouraged to set up headquarters in the zone, promoting the development of cross-border finance, innovative finance, venture capital and investment, wealth management, futures trading, asset management, specialty finance, and offshore services. The Plan aims to accelerate the implementation of projects like the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area International Commercial Bank and the GBA Insurance Service Center. It supports expanding the scale of commodity trading and promoting the integration of futures and spot markets for key commodities like iron ore, crude oil, and rubber to enhance their pricing influence. The Plan will promote the quality improvement and upgrade of fintech regulatory pilots and expand digital yuan application scenarios. It supports pilot programs for cross-border financial innovations such as offshore finance and green finance, and will promote the expansion of pilot programs like cross-border Wealth Management Connect and digital yuan cross-border payments. Institutions within the zone will be supported in developing specialty products like cross-border supply chain finance and intellectual property-pledged financing, and market entities will be guided to develop composite financial products. Pilots for cross-border credit asset transfers and multi-currency integrated accounts will be deepened to promote wider mutual recognition and connectivity of cross-border financial products. (Guangdong Department of Commerce) [CAAM: June Auto Commodity Import and Export Value Hits $31.82 Billion, Up 35.5% YoY] According to data from the General Administration of Customs compiled by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), the total import and export value of auto commodities in June 2026 was $31.82 billion, up 8.0% MoM and up 35.5% YoY. The import value was $3.39 billion, down 6.1% MoM and down 18.7% YoY; the export value was $28.43 billion, up 10.0% MoM and up 47.2% YoY. From January to June 2026, the cumulative import and export value of national auto commodities totaled $164.74 billion, up 25.5% YoY. The import value was $19.25 billion, down 11.8% YoY; the export value was $145.49 billion, up 33.0% YoY. (Jin10 Data APP) US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.26% to 99.95. Escalating geopolitical tensions weighed on both US stocks and bonds, causing them to fall. Oil prices jumped, reigniting inflation concerns ahead of the key US employment report. Market focus now turns to Friday's US employment report for new clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path. Stronger-than-expected jobs data could reinforce the case for higher-for-longer interest rates, while any escalation of tensions in the Middle East could push up energy prices and intensify market fluctuations. UBS analyst Ulrike Hoffmann noted: "Short-term risks remain, especially if US data remains firm, oil prices continue to fuel inflation concerns, or the market continues pricing in a more hawkish Fed rate path." Interactive Brokers Senior Economist José Torres stated: "Wall Street reversed again from recent strong gains as the lack of clarity concerning the Strait of Hormuz led investors to question whether the robust rally early this week was justified." (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME "FedWatch" tool: The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged by September is 45%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 55%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through October is 31%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 51.9%, and a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 17.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) According to a report by the UK's Financial Times, even after a decision not to reveal too many details on rate strategy triggered a sharp sell-off in government bonds, Fed Chairman Warsh is sticking with his usual concise communication style. People close to Warsh say he acknowledges making some mistakes during his first 10 weeks at the helm of the world's most important central bank, including failing to reinforce his key message on price stability and creating confusion over whether his long-term plan to reform the Fed could influence near-term policy decisions. However, they insisted those mistakes were not enough to derail Warsh's reform plans for the Fed. People familiar with the matter also revealed that Warsh is prepared to raise interest rates at the September meeting if upcoming inflation data proves strong and market expectations for higher borrowing costs rise accordingly. The sources added that while the Fed Chairman raised the possibility of shrinking the central bank's $6.7 trillion balance sheet to tighten monetary policy, interest rates remain the primary tool for now and will be used at upcoming meetings if necessary. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro Events: Data releases today include France's Q2 ILO unemployment rate, Germany's June seasonally adjusted industrial output MoM, Germany's June seasonally adjusted trade balance, the UK's July Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index MoM, France's June trade balance, Switzerland's July consumer confidence index, Canada's July employment change, the US July unemployment rate, US July seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US July average hourly earnings YoY, US July average hourly earnings MoM, US July New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, China's July US dollar-denominated trade balance, China's July foreign exchange reserves, and China's July trade balance data. Watches: 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem speaks on the US economy and monetary policy; 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivers remarks. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil futures rose, with US oil gaining 4% and Brent oil surging 4.57%. Geopolitical risks rekindled, causing oil prices to spike sharply. Wall Street CN mentioned that the new navigation agreement for the Strait of Hormuz, proposed to be signed by Iran and Oman, revealed significant details again, indicating Iran's bid to control the strait. Furthermore, Iran has taken action, striking "enemy targets" near the strait. Iran's Fars News Agency (FARS) reported on Thursday, August 6, local time, that Iran's parliament is reviewing this agreement. Under the agreement, US and Israeli vessels will be barred from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and nations that have "caused harm to Iran" will also be denied passage permits. Following this news, concerns over risks to global energy transportation rapidly intensified in the market. (Wall Street CN) Saudi Arabia cut its main crude oil price for Asia as negotiations proceed on an agreement aimed at easing shipping pressure in the Strait of Hormuz. The price cut came despite Houthi threats jeopardizing the alternative eastbound crude route via the Red Sea. According to a price list, state oil company Saudi Aramco reduced the price of its Arab Light crude for delivery to Asian clients next month by $0.50 per barrel, setting it at a $2/bbl discount to the regional benchmark. A prior survey showed traders expected Saudi Aramco to keep its flagship crude price unchanged. Global benchmark Brent crude prices fell sharply this week and are now trading near $80/bbl. (Jin10 Data APP) Over the past two months, the UAE has transported more crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz than any other producer, providing a critical supply buffer to a global market suffering from a historic energy crisis. According to energy data firm Kpler, a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) loaded with Emirati cargo appeared in the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday after turning off its Automatic Identification System (AIS) signal at the end of July. The tanker carries crude from the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. This is just one of dozens of similar tankers that have departed the Persian Gulf since the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) began implementing a new sales strategy. According to trading sources familiar with the matter, since early June, ADNOC has sold over 130 million barrels of crude oil through seven unprecedented tenders. (Jin10 Data APP)

[SMM Express] Palladium prices continued their upward momentum this week, rising above US$1,360/oz and reaching their highest level in nearly two months. The gains were supported by broad strength across the precious metals complex as markets responded positively to progress in diplomatic efforts aimed at easing tensions between the United States and Iran. Expectations of lower energy prices and a weaker US dollar also improved investor sentiment, increasing the appeal of dollar-denominated metals. Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming US labour market data for further indications of the Federal Reserve's policy direction. Softer expectations for interest rate tightening have provided additional support to precious metals. Meanwhile, major producer Nornickel maintains its expectation of a global palladium market surplus in 2026, reflecting structural changes in automotive demand.

August 4, 2026 Silver trades at around USD 58, roughly 52 per cent below its January record. At the same time, the market is heading for its sixth consecutive supply deficit. Two facts that appear not to fit together – and one deficit figure currently circulating through the financial press in two entirely different versions. Time for a sober stocktake. The silver market has been through one of the sharpest moves in its recent history in 2026. On 29 January the price reached an unprecedented USD 121.62 per ounce. Since then the metal has given back a good half of that and now hovers around USD 58. To many investors, that looks like a rally that failed. In parallel, a series of reports has appeared over recent weeks attesting to a widening supply deficit – but with markedly different numbers attached. Some cite 67 million ounces, others 46.3 million. Anyone wanting to know what an investment case can actually be built on first has to establish which figure applies. What the World Silver Survey Actually Shows The authoritative source is the World Silver Survey , produced by the Silver Institute together with the London research house Metals Focus. The 2026 edition was published on 15 April – and it puts this year's deficit at 46.3 million ounces. That represents an increase of around 15 per cent on the 40.3 million ounce shortfall recorded in 2025, and it marks the sixth consecutive deficit year. The number is indeed growing – but it is growing from a lower base than recent headlines suggest. The frequently quoted 67 million ounces comes from an earlier Silver Institute projection published ahead of the full survey. More recent data on mine production, recycling and end-use have since superseded that estimate. Anyone arguing on the basis of 67 million ounces today is simply working with an outdated figure. This is not pedantry. The gap between the two numbers amounts to roughly a third of the deficit itself. Building the silver case on the higher figure substantially overstates the scarcity. The Genuinely Relevant Number Lies Elsewhere The annual deficit is not, in any case, the most meaningful metric. Set against global annual demand of around 1.11 billion ounces, 46.3 million ounces amounts to roughly four per cent – hardly a dramatic gap in isolation. The cumulative figure is more instructive. Since the market flipped from surplus to deficit in 2021, it has drawn a total of around 762 million ounces from above-ground stocks to cover the gap between supply and demand. That is close to a full year of global mine production. This is where the supply story really sits. It is not the individual annual shortfall that strains the market, but the fact that available inventories have been steadily eroding for six years. The consequences have already shown themselves repeatedly in the form of thin liquidity, elevated lease rates and unusually violent price swings. The Composition of Demand Is Shifting Markedly What is notable is that the 2026 deficit widens even though total demand is falling. Metals Focus expects a decline of around two per cent to 1,112.6 million ounces, alongside supply falling by roughly two per cent to 1,066.4 million ounces. Within demand, a clear reallocation is under way: Industrial demand: down three per cent to 639.6 million ounces, a second consecutive annual decline. At around 57 per cent of the total, the segment nonetheless remains by far the largest demand pillar and stays historically elevated. Jewellery fabrication: falling to 159.4 million ounces, a five-year low. The drop is particularly pronounced in India at around 18 per cent, where high prices are driving lighter pieces and subdued rural demand. Coins and bars: up 18 per cent, the strongest level since 2022. The pattern is unambiguous. Manufacturers are designing silver out of their processes wherever high prices make that viable, while private investors take up physical metal. The market is therefore increasingly driven by investment flows rather than by fabrication demand. The Gold-Silver Ratio as a Valuation Anchor A further perspective comes from the relationship between the two precious metals. With gold at around USD 4,050 and silver at roughly USD 58, the gold-silver ratio currently stands at just under 70. For comparison: in December the ratio briefly fell below 55:1, its lowest reading since 2013. Silver has therefore given up considerably more than gold during the correction – unsurprising given the metal's stronger industrial linkage. In downturns that dual role acts as a drag; in upswings it acts as leverage. Historically, a ratio around 70 is neither extreme nor especially cheap – it sits in the middle of the range of the past two decades. As a buy signal it is therefore of little use. As an indication that silver has not kept pace with gold's recent moves, it is rather more telling. What Investors Should Take From This The supply side remains the strongest element of the silver case, and it is structurally anchored. Around 70 per cent of silver arises as a by-product of lead, zinc, copper and gold mining. Higher silver prices therefore do not automatically translate into higher output, because the production decision rests on the economics of the primary metals. Metals Focus expects mine production to remain broadly flat in 2026. At the same time, the risks should not be waved away. Metals Focus itself points out that persistent geopolitical tension and instability in the Middle East could weigh on industrial demand. Monetary headwinds compound this: the US Federal Reserve is currently debating rate increases rather than cuts, which is fundamentally unhelpful for non-yielding assets such as precious metals. And in a market carried increasingly by investment flows, sharp sell-offs remain possible at any point should financial investors withdraw in size. The sober conclusion, then, is this. The structural deficit is real, it is widening, and six years of inventory drawdown have left the market vulnerable. But it is not an argument for any particular price path over the coming months – and certainly not one that benefits from being reinforced with inflated deficit figures. Anyone investing in silver should treat the volatility as a permanent feature rather than an aberration. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/the-silver-deficit-is-widening-but-it-is-smaller-than-many-believe

August 3, 2026 The precious metals markets remained highly volatile over the past several days while continuing to trade within what has ultimately been a relatively narrow range. Gold began the week with an upside gap and rallied to US$4,116, only to retreat to US$3,996 shortly before yesterday's Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Following the announcement, prices rebounded back to US$4,116 within hours before coming under renewed pressure late in the session and during early Asian trading, falling to US$4,042 and US$4,028, respectively. Overall, however, little has changed compared to last week's close of US$4,054. Silver traded within a range of US$56.62 to US$60.09 over the same period. Both metals remain locked in an uncertain sideways consolidation as they continue searching for a clear bottom and a decisive trend reversal. Two Time Horizons, One Market The precious metals market continues to be influenced by two very different time horizons. On one hand, a structural demand story unfolding over many years—driven largely by China—continues to provide strong fundamental support for gold. On the other hand, Federal Reserve policy, bond market developments, corrections in technology and semiconductor stocks, and the escalating conflict with Iran continue to generate short-term shocks that affect not only gold and silver but virtually every financial market sector. The Fed Holds Steady While the Market Tightens Financial Conditions This tension between long-term fundamentals and short-term volatility was highlighted once again by the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision. The U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting. More noteworthy than the decision itself, however, was the reaction in the bond market. While two-year Treasury yields declined, the 30-year Treasury yield surged to approximately 5.21%, its highest level in nearly two decades. Fed Chair Warsh deliberately avoided providing forward guidance, instead pointing to the increases already taking place across the yield curve. The result is an unusual situation: although the Fed has left its policy rate unchanged, the bond market is effectively tightening monetary conditions on its own through rising long-term yields. Real Yields Versus Currency Debasement For gold and silver, this environment creates conflicting forces. Rising long-term real interest rates traditionally weigh on precious metals, while declining confidence in long-duration government bonds and growing concerns about fiscal deficits and currency debasement strengthen gold's appeal as an alternative store of value. Geopolitics Continues to Fuel Inflation Concerns The already complicated picture has been further intensified by the military escalation between the United States and Iran. Following Iranian missile attacks on U.S. positions, CENTCOM responded with strikes against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets. Brent crude oil briefly climbed above US$94 per barrel amid concerns over the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments normally pass. Higher energy prices continue to increase inflationary pressures worldwide, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's cautious approach toward monetary policy. Selling Pressure from Financially Stressed Holders While geopolitical risks continue to support inflation concerns, they have also created selling pressure in the gold market. Financially strained Gulf states and countries such as Turkey have reportedly sold portions of their gold reserves to stabilize their currencies. These transactions temporarily increase supply but do not alter the longer-term demand trend. Instead, they represent a transfer of gold from weaker holders to long-term strategic buyers, particularly in Asia. China's Strategic Gold Accumulation Remains the Dominant Long-Term Story Zentralbank-Goldreserven China vs USA, vom 27. Juli 2026. © BMO, Gold.de The recent market turbulence has overshadowed what remains the dominant long-term narrative: China's systematic accumulation of gold. According to a recent BMO analysis, China has accumulated approximately 29,500 tonnes of above-ground gold since 1949, compared with an estimated 32,200 tonnes held by the United States. Remarkably, 93% of China's total gold accumulation has occurred during the past 25 years. The People's Bank of China officially reports gold reserves of around 2,300 tonnes, but discrepancies between reported central bank purchases and actual gold flows from the United Kingdom and Switzerland since 2022 suggest China's true holdings could be closer to 5,200 tonnes. Two Targets, One Timeline Based on these estimates, BMO outlines two potential milestones. China would require approximately 2,911 additional tonnes to match U.S. official central bank reserves, a target that could be reached in roughly five years at the current pace of purchases. To match total U.S. above-ground gold holdings, China would need only around 2,700 tonnes, a level that could potentially be reached in as little as two years. Shanghai and Hong Kong Are Emerging as a New Pricing Hub Globale Gold Handelsplätze, vom 27. Juli 2026. © BMO, Gold.de At the same time, China continues expanding the Shanghai Gold Exchange while strengthening Hong Kong as an offshore gold trading center through new clearing systems, the Delivery Connect program, and the reintroduction of U.S. dollar-denominated gold futures. Together, these initiatives are creating a second global pricing hub alongside the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and New York's COMEX, while supporting the broader internationalization of the renminbi. Gold Remains Resilient Despite Strong Headwinds Despite the challenging macroeconomic backdrop, gold has shown remarkable resilience. The actively traded August futures contract gained 0.91% yesterday to close at US$4,065.50 , a respectable performance considering both the geopolitical escalation and the Federal Reserve meeting. BMO continues to forecast additional upside during the second half of 2026, targeting approximately US$4,750 by the fourth quarter once inflation concerns related to the conflict begin to ease. The Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August is widely viewed as the next major catalyst. Silver Caught Between Conflicting Forces Silver currently finds itself in a particularly difficult position. Historically, silver follows gold's direction, often with considerably higher beta. If gold successfully maintains support around US$4,000 and resumes its recovery, silver could potentially deliver even stronger gains. Unlike gold, however, silver lacks one critical pillar of the China investment thesis: there is no structural central bank demand providing long-term support. Instead, silver remains much more dependent on two other factors—the direction of real interest rates and industrial demand, particularly from the solar energy sector, which has remained relatively resilient despite inflationary pressures and higher energy costs. Silver Forms a Potential Wedge Pattern Silber in US-Dollar, Tageschart vom 17. Juli 2026. © Gold.de Since late June, silver has been attempting to establish a slow, narrow and rather confusing bottoming formation. Prices remain well below both the declining 50-day moving average at US$63.99 and the relatively flat 200-day moving average at US$70.71. At the same time, bears have repeatedly tested the broad support zone between US$55 and US$60 without achieving any meaningful downside follow-through, leaving a potentially bullish wedge pattern intact. Daily stochastic indicators have yet to generate meaningful upside momentum and continue to drift sideways, reflecting the fading media attention toward precious metals and the typically quieter summer trading environment. Nevertheless, prospects for a recovery remain favorable. Seasonally, silver has historically performed well between late June and early September, making a return toward the rapidly declining 50-day moving average appear entirely plausible later this summer. Given the growing number of bearish forecasts calling for gold to fall toward US$3,500, the market could just as easily remember that precious metals remain within a long-term secular bull market. Only six months ago, gold and silver had outperformed nearly every other asset class. A sudden shift in market sentiment could therefore transform the current setup into what many investors would view as an attractive "buy-the-dip" opportunity. Conclusion: Silver's Bottoming Process Remains Complicated The precious metals sector continues to move through a complex period in which long-term structural trends are colliding with short-term macroeconomic shocks. While gold remains fundamentally supported by China's ongoing accumulation strategy and growing concerns about currency debasement, rising long-term real yields, the Federal Reserve's cautious stance, weakness in technology stocks, and escalating geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on near-term price action. Silver, meanwhile, remains trapped between US$56 and US$60, searching for a decisive trend reversal. Seasonal patterns and the emerging wedge formation continue to support the case for a recovery later this summer. The central investment thesis for the second half of the year remains unchanged. Once inflation concerns related to the geopolitical conflict begin to ease and interest-rate uncertainty subsides, gold could resume its advance. Given silver's historically higher beta, it would likely outperform during such a move. Unlike gold, however, silver lacks the powerful structural support provided by central bank buying and therefore remains more dependent on industrial demand—particularly from the solar sector—and on the direction of real interest rates. Overall, the current consolidation can still be viewed as a potential buy-the-dip opportunity within an ongoing secular bull market, although investors continue to await more convincing technical confirmation, such as a sustained move back above silver's 50-day moving average. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/silver-a-complex-bottoming-process-continues