Chinese Taiwan's anti-dumping investigation covers 50 tariff codes, primarily 304 and 316-series cold-rolled stainless steel with thickness of 0.05–6.10mm, excluding coated or clad products. A research firm commissioned by the applicants estimated Vietnamese products carried a dumping margin of approximately 31.36% in 2025, with CIF prices USD 80–100/ton below local market levels, with some offers falling below production costs. The investigation names 20 Vietnamese producers and exporters including Posco VST, Yongjin Metal Technology (Vietnam), Tan Viet Metal Technology, Nam Phat Group, and Hoa Sen Nhon Hoi. Procedurally, the Ministry of Economic Affairs must issue a preliminary injury determination within 40 days, while the Ministry of Finance has 70 days for a preliminary dumping finding. Should preliminary findings be affirmative, provisional duties and possible retroactive application may follow. If implemented, the measures are expected to potentially disrupt Vietnamese export flows to Chinese Taiwan and raise near-term procurement costs for end users.

Since Q3, multiple regions including Beijing, Qinghai Province, Gansu Province, Chongqing, Shanghai, and the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region have introduced new policy measures regarding consumer goods trade-in. Hong Tao, vice chairman of the China Consumer Economics Society, said in an interview with reporters that consumer goods trade-in activities have a strong driving effect, benefit a wide range of people, and deliver tangible livelihood results, serving as a key lever for releasing consumption potential. Localities’ continued efforts in consumer goods trade-in help further cultivate new consumption hot topics, better meet public needs and enterprise expectations, and thereby expand domestic demand while improving people’s livelihoods. Looking at this round of actions, although the driving forces behind relevant local departments optimizing the implementation of consumer goods trade-in policies have different focuses, overall there are three main directions: optimizing implementation mechanisms, lowering subsidy thresholds, and expanding the scope of subsidized product categories. Among them, many localities have balanced two or three directions.

[Macro Expectations Repeatedly Disturb, Aluminum Prices Consolidate with Upside Encountering Resistance] Overall assessment: Short-term aluminum prices are expected to mainly consolidate, with upside room somewhat capped by expectations of production resumptions.

[SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Minutes] Silicon metal: Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was around 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was around 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt. On the supply side, there have been many expectations regarding news from large plants in Xinjiang towards month-end, strengthening the bottom support for silicon metal prices. Silicon enterprises showed diverging attitudes in quoting prices and selling—some maintained firm quotes and sold according to market conditions, while others temporarily suspended quoting. Attention should be paid to changes in the operating rates of silicon enterprises on the supply side. Wafers: In the market, 18X wafer prices were 1.105-1.123 yuan/piece, 210RN wafer prices were 1.148-1.153 yuan/piece, and 210N wafer prices were 1.241-1.256 yuan/piece. Wafers of all sizes maintained an upward trend, with cell segment having accepted a quote of 1.15 yuan/piece for 210R, and 183 wafers may see further price increases due to tight supply.

Polysilicon, wafer and cell price spikes lifted supplier offers in August, while weak international demand kept China-port FOB transactions near their early-month lows.

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: After PPI Positive News Materialized, Bulls Take Profits, 420,000 Strong Support Under Test]

Recently, the Guangdong Provincial Energy Bureau completed the energy-saving report review for the South China base project of Cangzhou Mingzhu (002108) and approved the report in principle. According to the public announcement, the project is located in Xiancun Town, Zengcheng District, Guangdong Province, with a total investment of approximately 3.3789 billion yuan. It includes two sub-projects: a lithium battery separator and a PE pressure pipeline. The main construction contents include 8 wet-process lithium battery separator production lines and 6 PE pressure pipeline production lines. Upon completion, the project will have an annual output of 30,000 mt of PE pressure pipelines and 2.4 billion m² of wet-process separators. The separator sub-project is planned to begin production in December 2028, and the PE pressure pipeline sub-project is planned to begin production in October 2027.

SMM, August 19: In the metals market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.89%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.75%. SHFE zinc fell 1.07%, SHFE tin fell 1.21%. SHFE nickel fell 0.25%. SHFE lead rose 0.47%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.07%, and the most-traded aluminum casting futures contract fell 0.46%. Overnight, ferrous metals all rose. Stainless steel rose 0.25%, iron ore rose 1.63%, and rebar rose 0.7%. HRC rose 0.67%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.22%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 2.46%. Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals broadly fell. LME copper fell 1.2%. LME aluminum fell 1.29%. LME lead rose 0.16%. LME zinc fell 1.68%. LME tin fell 1.12%. LME nickel rose 0.24%. Overnight, in precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.88%, and COMEX silver fell 4.24%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.95%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.95%. As of 7:16 AM on August 19, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [State Council: Broaden the Scope of Housing Provident Fund Withdrawal and Use] Premier Li Qiang recently signed a State Council decree, announcing the Decision of the State Council on Amending the Regulations on the Management of Housing Provident Funds, which will take effect on September 20, 2026. The amendments include broadening the scope of withdrawal and use. For the withdrawal of housing provident funds to pay rent, the threshold that rent must exceed a prescribed percentage of household wage income is removed; new circumstances in which housing provident funds can be withdrawn are added, including for the renovation of owner-occupied housing, payment of property management fees for owner-occupied housing, and other housing consumption scenarios approved by the State Council. The investment and utilization channels for housing provident funds are appropriately broadened, and it is clarified that housing provident fund management centers may use housing provident funds to purchase policy-oriented financial bonds. [Ministry of Commerce: 18 Measures Introduced to Further Stimulate the Vitality of the Lower-Tier Market] On the afternoon of August 18, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce efforts to stimulate the vitality of the lower-tier market and boost consumption at the county level. A responsible official from the Ministry of Commerce stated that, regarding the optimization of the commercial environment in counties, the Opinions propose accelerating the renewal of existing commercial facilities, optimizing the layout of commercial outlets, improving supporting commercial services, and revitalizing idle resources and assets. The efficiency of urban-rural distribution networks will be improved, two-way distribution channels between urban and rural areas will be unblocked, and the coordinated development of online and offline channels will be promoted. In terms of enriching supply in county-level consumption, we will guide chain enterprises to accelerate their expansion into lower-tier markets, encourage local brands to uphold tradition while pursuing innovation, and develop new business formats in line with local conditions. We will expand the supply of high-quality, reasonably priced goods, accelerate the improvement of service formats such as elderly care and childcare, and promote the integrated development of commerce, agriculture, culture, tourism, and sports. (From the Wall Street CN APP) [Shanghai: By 2030, Striving to Build Shanghai into a Core Node in the Global Logistics and Supply Chain Network, an International Logistics Hub, and a Global Supply Chain Management Center City] The General Office of the Shanghai Municipal People's Government issued the "Shanghai Modern Logistics Development 15th Five-Year Plan." By 2030, a modern logistics system characterized by internal and external connectivity, convenience and efficiency, value-added empowerment, and smart and green development will be fully established. Efforts will focus on improving the logistics network composed of "gateway hubs—regional bases—community-level nodes." The logistics industry structure will be continuously optimized, logistics operation quality and efficiency will be further improved, and the international competitiveness, industrial support capacity, and livelihood security capability of logistics services will be significantly enhanced. The goal is to build Shanghai into a core node in the global logistics and supply chain network, an international logistics hub, and a global supply chain management center city. (From the Wall Street CN APP) US Dollar: The overnight US dollar index rose 0.07% to 99.65. Bond traders have adjusted their strategies once again. Following a series of data suggesting that a rate hike by the US Fed for the rest of the year is nearly impossible, options market bets are attempting to hedge against the risk of the Fed pivoting to an interest rate cut in 2027. This dovish bet contradicts recent movements in the US Treasury market: long-term bond yields have risen to multi-year highs, as a Fed on hold would keep inflation persistently above target for longer. Options traders closely tied to the Fed's policy path, however, are turning their attention to signs of US economic weakness, which they believe could trigger a market reversal. This trend first emerged when data released last week showed that inflation and consumer demand slowed down in July, cooling market expectations for a rate hike at the Fed's September meeting. Options market participants subsequently began adjusting their positions, reducing the magnitude of rate hikes priced into the swap market for the coming months. Some options are even considering hedging the risk of a rate cut that could occur by the middle of next year. "Concerns about rate hikes have diminished," said Jeff Schul, head of rates at Constitution Capital, noting that positions betting on that outcome are being unwound. According to CME "FedWatch": The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through September is 65%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 35%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through October is 51.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 41.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike is 7.4%. "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos: Executives surveyed by the Cleveland Fed expect CPI inflation to be 3.3% over the next year, slightly down from 3.7% in Q2. They anticipate no significant changes in wage growth (2.8% over the next year vs. 2.9% in last year's survey) or employment levels. R&D spending growth is expected to slow down, projected at 2.0% over the next year, down from 3.1% in last year's survey. Bank of America's August global fund manager survey showed that a majority expect Fed Chairman Warsh to take a neutral stance at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference later this month. Among respondents, 31% expect him to deliver "hawkish" remarks, while only 7% expect "dovish" remarks. (Jin10) On the macro front: Today will see the release of the UK July CPI m/m, UK July RPI m/m, eurozone June seasonally adjusted current account, eurozone July final CPI y/y, eurozone July final CPI m/m, and other data. Also, watch for: ECB President Christine Lagarde attending the "Global Economic Outlook" discussion at the World Economic Forum International Business Council (IBC) meeting; Kuaishou holds its earnings call. On the crude oil front: Overnight, both crude oil futures extended gains for a second day, with WTI up 0.81% and Brent up 0.51%. Crude oil prices remained calm, but diesel saw strong undercurrents. The US-Iran ceasefire agreement technically expired on Monday. Trump said the US is not currently negotiating with Iran but insisted that the Strait of Hormuz is open and operating normally. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 293.4 million barrels, the lowest since 1982. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 293.4 million barrels, the lowest since 1982. Ukrainian drone strikes pushed Russian crude oil exports to a four-week low, with supply disruptions in both the Middle East and the Black Sea; refiners became the biggest winners. Jet fuel and diesel prices per barrel equivalent are both near 2022 crisis levels, while WTI is only $84.92, making crack spreads extremely wide. (Wall Street See)

[SMM Research] This study looks at South Africa's Bushveld Complex, the region behind most of the world's Platinum. It covers where the belt is, what comes out of it, who mines it, why it matters and what the years ahead may hold.

Over the next decade (2026-2035), the combined market share of the three traditional major lithium producers Australia, China and Chile is expected to keep declining as emerging suppliers scale up, with Zimbabwe and Argentina identified as the key sources of new supply. Zimbabwe, in particular, is likely to lead a new round of African lithium expansion, according to a latest research report. Strong H1 momentum, supported by storage demand. China's battery-grade lithium carbonate spot price stood at around 153,950 yuan/mt (approx. USD 21,500/mt) on August 17, after a rally of more than 130% from the June 2025 low of 58,400 yuan/mt. The 2026 forecast for China lithium carbonate has been revised up to USD 20,100/t and lithium hydroxide monohydrate to USD 19,600/t, reflecting that H1 momentum. Prices are expected to ease in H2 as smelter maintenance ends and supply returns, but storage demand is limiting the downside market balances now point to month-on-month destocking through H2 2026, with some analysts projecting the year's price peak in late Q3/early Q4. From ore exporter to processor enforced by policy. Zimbabwe’s rise is no longer just a forecast. On February 25, 2026, Zimbabwe's mining ministry banned all exports of lithium raw ore and concentrates with immediate effect, forcing miners to build local processing capacity. Zimbabwe's output was expected to reach ~200,000 t LCE in 2026 (up over 15% year on year), equal to ~10% of global primary lithium supply and ~17% of global spodumene supply before the ban; the restriction is estimated to affect around 12,000 t LCE of monthly supply. Key projects include: 1) Huayou Cobalt's Arcadia ~70,000-80,000 t LCE of mine output expected in 2026, with its 50,000 t/yr lithium sulphate plant commissioned in Q1 2026 and now ramping up; 2) Sinomine's Bikita ~60,000-70,000 t LCE expected in 2026, with a 30,000 t/yr lithium sulphate plant slated for 2027; 3) Chengxin's Sabi Star (~35,000 t LCE) and Yahua's Kamativi (~50,000 t LCE) rounding out a Chinese-invested project portfolio totaling roughly 230,000 t LCE. 4) In 2025, Zimbabwe shipped over 1.2 million tonnes of spodumene to China about 15% of China's total imports making it a supply source Beijing's supply chain cannot easily replace. 2026 is the last investment peak of this cycle global lithium supply is projected to rise ~30% year on year to over 2.1 million t LCE in 2026, concentrated in China and Africa (Africa alone adding ~140,000 t to reach ~380,000 t LCE). Chinese output hit 970,000 t of lithium carbonate in 2025, with new additions this year from Qinghai/Tibet salt lakes, Sichuan spodumene and Jianxiawo's expected restart in H2. Australia shipped 158,000 t of spodumene to China in the week of August 10-16 alone. But few new projects are lined up beyond 2027 a key reason sentiment has flipped from glut to deficit: Morgan Stanley now forecasts an 80,000 t LCE global deficit for 2026, UBS sees a 22,000 t shortfall, versus a 61,000 t surplus in 2025. EVs slow, storage takes the wheel. Global lithium demand growth is expected to slow to 5.8% in 2026 (from 18.5% in 2025), with passenger EV sales growth falling to 3.9% (vs 22.8% in 2025 and 24% in 2024) as China's trade-in subsidies end and the US IRA rollback bites. Energy storage is now the core demand pillar: storage-sector lithium demand is forecast to jump ~55-74% in 2026, lifting its share of total lithium demand from 23% to ~31%. LFP batteries account for over 90% of battery storage applications and more than half of global EV battery installations; China's LFP cell makers reported hot August orders with output up ~5% month on month. China's NEV penetration hit 58.5% in June above 50% for the third straight month. Battery manufacturing investment in China grew 23% in January-July 2026. Risks. Lithium remains in a "tug-of-war" between supply-release concerns and storage-driven demand support, with risks skewed to the downside: a sustained price recovery could trigger rapid restarts (curtailed capacity covering 750,000+ t of concentrate sits near a ~USD 1,200/t restart cost line), sodium-ion substitution becomes economic if cell prices stay above ~0.4 yuan/Wh, and rising energy costs plus a potential sulfur shortage could squeeze miners' margins. Longer term, battery chemistry innovation and recycling could cut lithium intensity and expand secondary supply reshaping the opportunity window for emerging producers like Zimbabwe. SMM View: Zimbabwe's February export ban has turned the "move down the value chain" story from intention into policy reality Chinese invested projects at Arcadia and Bikita are now the country's only guaranteed export channels via lithium sulphate, and the roughly 12,000 t LCE/month of disrupted supply was a direct catalyst in this year's price rally above 150,000 yuan/mt. The report's core thesis a declining share for Australia, China and Chile, with Africa gaining is being validated in real time, Africa adds ~140,000 t LCE of supply in 2026, the largest increment after China. But Zimbabwe's ramp-up pace, its ability to keep sulphate exports flowing, and downstream pricing power remain the key variables determining whether it can fully deliver on its market-share ambitions