SMM, July 6 news: In June, market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes heated up, with the US dollar index gaining over 2% for the month. This was compounded by the electronics industry entering its traditional off-season and weak end-use demand, along with market skepticism over the sustainability of the AI sector's boom, which led to concentrated profit-taking from earlier high-level positions. Multiple factors jointly dragged tin prices lower, with SHFE tin falling 7.08% and LME tin dropping 6.68% in June monthly. Entering July, Warsh remarked at the Sintra Forum that "inflation expectations have declined and inflation risks have receded over the past four weeks." Coupled with US June non-farm payrolls data coming in below expectations, market expectations for US Fed rate hikes cooled somewhat. Meanwhile, tech stocks staged a rebound. Multiple tailwinds drove tin prices to drift higher in early July. As of around 16:51 on July 6, LME tin rose 1.26% to $52,970/mt, with its July monthly performance provisionally up 2.56%; SHFE tin gained 3.09% to 410,360 yuan/mt, with its July monthly performance provisionally up 5.4%. Spot side, in June, tin prices fell over 8%; in July, spot prices rose for several consecutive sessions, but a strong wait-and-see sentiment pervaded the market. For tin spot prices: SMM 1# tin spot prices posted four consecutive gains, quoted at 406,900–415,300 yuan/mt on July 6, with an average price of 411,100 yuan/mt, up 2.96% from the prior trading day. As tin prices rebounded, wait-and-see sentiment in the spot market intensified, with only some rigid demand purchases occurring and subdued overall trading activity. Looking at the monthly trend of tin spot prices, the average price of SMM 1# tin as of June 30 was 387,800 yuan/mt. Compared with the average price of 425,000 yuan/mt on May 29, it fell by 37,200 yuan/mt over the span of just over a month, a decline of 8.75%. Notably, when tin prices approached 380,000 yuan/mt, downstream enterprise restocking demand saw a phase of release. Fundamental side ► Production: June Refined Tin Production Edges Up MoM According to data compiled by SMM based on market communication, in June 2026, China's refined tin production edged up MoM, with overall output remaining relatively steady. The slight uptick in June refined tin production was driven by two main factors: On one hand, raw material supply showed marginal improvement, as previous incremental overseas tin ore imports materialized. Although the pace of production resumptions at Myanmar mines remained slow, ore has been flowing out continuously, alleviating domestic raw material shortages to some extent. On the other hand, increased arrivals of imported ore cargoes drove smelting TCs steadily higher, offering a phased easing of the longstanding raw material tightness and creating conditions for smelters to raise operating rates and boost output. However, future production expansion faces multiple constraints: from May to July every year, Myanmar enters its traditional rainy season, which limits both open-pit mining operations and ore transport. As a result, short-term imported ore volumes are expected to pull back MoM. Overall, the refined tin supply is marginally loose at present, but downstream industries have entered the traditional consumption off-season, weakening both supply and demand sides simultaneously. In the short term, a significant output surge appears unlikely. ►Imports: Tin ore imports rose both YoY and MoM in May; imports from Myanmar surged 384.5% YoY In May, China’s tin ore imports reached 16,800 mt (equivalent to about 6,408 mt in metal content), up 7.07% MoM and 25.61% YoY, an increase of 1,221 mt in metal content from April (which was equivalent to 5,187 mt). January-May cumulative imports totaled 85,900 mt, up 71.41% YoY. In May, China’s tin ingot imports were 1,838 mt, down 34.4% MoM and 11.46% YoY; January-April cumulative imports reached 11,196 mt, up 17.75% YoY. Import and export data for the tin industry chain from 2025 to May 2026 show that the global tin market’s supply-demand pattern is undergoing significant structural adjustments, characterized by accelerating recovery of overseas mine supply, easing of domestic raw material supply pressure, increased smelting output due to lower raw material costs, and constrained exports amid weak overseas demand. In terms of raw material supply, cumulative tin ore imports in January-May 2026 reached 85,998 mt, surging 71.41% YoY, while May alone registered 16,831 mt, up 7.07% MoM and soaring 25.61% YoY. This strong rebound was mainly driven by the recovery of Myanmar ore, with tin ore imports from Myanmar hitting 6,634 mt in May, skyrocketing 384.5% YoY, and the January-May cumulative figure spiking as high as 203.49% YoY. In contrast, although tin ore imports from countries other than Myanmar still maintained a cumulative increase of 34.72%, they declined 15.23% YoY in May alone, indicating a more moderate recovery in ore supply from non-Myanmar sources. ►Inventories: SMM weekly tin ingot social inventory across three regions continued destocking for four consecutive weeks. China’s tin ingot social inventory: According to SMM data, as of July 4, 2026, the total tin ingot social inventory across three regions in China stood at 7,299 mt, a sharp WoW decline of 1,374 mt, or 15.84%, from 8,673 mt the prior week (June 26). In terms of trend, since the stage high of 13,604 mt in early June, China’s tin ingot social inventory has been destocking for four consecutive weeks, with a cumulative destocking of as much as 46.4% over the past month. The destocking slope exhibited a “slow-then-steep” characteristic. The current inventory level has fallen back to the year’s low, and the market supply-demand pattern has seen notable marginal improvement. Observing by region, inventory in Shanghai dropped to 3,750 mt, a weekly decrease of 996 mt, contributing 72.5% of the total weekly destocking volume, making it the dominant driver of this destocking round and reflecting faster trade turnover in east China and a substantive rebound in downstream purchase willingness. Guangdong inventory fell in tandem to 3,449 mt, down 378 mt WoW, accounting for 27.5% of total destocking, confirming that downstream rigid demand, led by solder enterprises in south China, maintained resilience and the pace of stockpiling picked up. The underlying logic is driven, on the one hand, by restocking after price pullbacks: the previously high tin price dampened downstream purchases, but this inhibitory effect gradually subsided as prices recently returned to rational levels, unleashing pent-up rigid orders in a concentrated manner and accelerating the digestion of visible inventory. LME Tin Inventory: LME tin inventory data stood at 8,575 mt on June 30, compared with 8,850 mt on May 29, indicating a decline in LME tin inventory during June. SMM Outlook On the macro front: In July, multiple macro events in and outside China will continue to disturb tin price movements. Overseas, focus on the minutes of the June US Fed FOMC meeting, US CPI and PCE inflation data, and the month-end US Fed meeting. Earlier, Waller indicated that inflation risks have eased, while the June non-farm payrolls data missed expectations, leading to a phased cooling of market bets on rate hikes. If subsequent inflation data rebound again and the US Fed strikes a hawkish tone, a stronger US dollar will weigh on tin prices; otherwise, continued easing expectations will provide valuation support for tin prices. Domestically, the central bank has increased liquidity injections, ultra-long special government bonds are being steadily implemented, and stimulus policies related to high-end manufacturing technological transformation and equipment upgrades are gradually taking effect, which will benefit medium and long-term consumption in tin downstream sectors such as semiconductors, AI computing power, and new energy. However, in the short term, the weak pattern of the traditional off-season in the electronics sector is unlikely to reverse quickly, and the pace at which domestic demand policy dividends are released will directly determine the strength of downstream spot restocking. Fundamentals: On the supply side, the overall tightness of tin ore supply persists, though marginal supply increase signals have grown; smelters are maintaining steady production with no large-scale production cuts for now. On the demand side, the market has entered the traditional consumption off-season, with downstream solder enterprises generally cautious in procurement, relying solely on rigid-demand purchases, while high prices are significantly suppressing purchase willingness. On the inventory side, tin inventories both in and outside China remain in a destocking trend, providing inventory-side support for tin prices. In summary, changes in macro expectations combined with the performance of the tech sector will influence the amplitude of tin price fluctuations. Tight ore supply and low overall inventories form a relatively strong fundamental floor, underpinning tin prices; but weak demand during the off-season will continue to drag on futures, limiting the upside room for tin prices. Looking ahead, close attention should be paid to the US Fed's policy direction and the prosperity of the semiconductor industry chain, while continuously observing the pace of destocking in and outside China, and waiting for a substantive recovery on the demand side, which can then bring new upward momentum to tin prices. Recommended reading:

[Overseas Macro Bullishness Battles Supply Bearishness, China's Destocking Supports SHFE Aluminum Bottom] On the domestic front, bullish factors are prominent. The proportion of liquid aluminum has continued to rise. Over the past week, aluminum ingot warehouse withdrawals hit a four-year high, and the pace of inventory destocking has accelerated significantly, forming support for the bottom of SHFE aluminum. Amid the interplay of bullish and bearish factors, overseas, the bullish impact of the US dollar and the bearish forces from supply and geopolitics offset each other. After its earlier excessive decline, LME aluminum's downward momentum has slowed, and in the short term, it is mainly consolidating at lows for repair; domestically, supported by rapid destocking, the probability of underperforming LME aluminum is low. The SHFE and LME markets may show slight divergence, and a sustained unilateral weak trend is unlikely.

SMM July 4 news: Metal market: Last Friday night, domestic base metals nearly all rose. SHFE copper gained 0.14%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.6%, SHFE lead added 0.38%, SHFE zinc increased 0.87%, and SHFE tin jumped 3.8%. SHFE nickel edged down 0.02%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.07%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract rose 0.24%. Last Friday night, ferrous metals mostly closed higher. Stainless steel dropped 1.85%, iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar gained 0.39%, and hot-rolled coil added 0.4%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.21%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.6%. Last Friday night, in the overseas market, LME base metals rose across the board. LME copper gained 0.54%, LME aluminum added 0.23%, LME lead rose 1.04%, LME zinc climbed 2.17%, LME tin surged 4.99%, and LME nickel rose 0.4%. Last Friday night, precious metals : COMEX gold rose 1.49%, posting a weekly gain of 2.22%; COMEX silver gained 2.87%, closing the week higher with a 5.26% increase. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.81%, ending the week up 3.5%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 1.61%, posting a weekly rise of 8.82%. JPMorgan said that in the short term, gold prices may be capped by weakening demand and are likely to remain moving sideways overall. The main reasons are weaker purchasing power in key demand areas and renewed sensitivity of gold to changes in real interest rates, which may limit further price gains. However, the bank maintains a medium- to long-term bullish outlook. It expects gold to gradually rebound in H2 2026, with an average price of around $4,300 per ounce in Q3, rising to about $4,500 in Q4. Looking ahead to 2027, JPMorgan believes the rally may continue, driven mainly by continued central bank buying, stronger physical demand, and persistent long-term structural allocation needs. These factors will support gold's long-term appeal as a safe-haven and reserve asset. As of 7:41 a.m. on July 4, last Friday night's closing quotations: Macro front China: [Li Qiang: Take more forceful measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating high-level self-reliance in science and technology, building a strong domestic market, and deepening reforms and expanding opening up] On July 1, Premier Li Qiang, also secretary of the CPC Leadership Group of the State Council, presided over a meeting of the group to study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speech at the celebration of the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China and Xi Jinping Thought on Party Building. The meeting emphasized the need to strive for new achievements in high-quality development, strengthen initiative and a sense of urgency in work, and take more robust measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating self-reliance in high-level science and technology, developing a strong domestic market, and deepening reform and expanding opening up. It called for taking solid action, shouldering responsibilities, and striving to carry forward the baton of history, so as to make greater contributions to building a strong country and achieving national rejuvenation. (Xinhua News Agency) [The State Council: Increasing Efforts in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Transformation in Key Industries such as Steel and Non-Ferrous Metals to Achieve Energy Savings of More Than 150 Million mt of Standard Coal] Recently, the State Council issued the “15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Beautiful China,” clarifying the overall requirements, targets and indicators, key tasks, and major projects for comprehensively advancing the building of a Beautiful China during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The Plan proposes that by 2030, the quality of the ecological environment will be comprehensively improved, and new significant progress will be made in building a Beautiful China. Green production and lifestyles will be essentially in place, the carbon peak target will be met as scheduled, total emissions of major pollutants will continue to decline, comprehensive solid waste management capacity and level will be significantly enhanced, urban and rural living environments will be notably improved, the diversity, stability, and sustainability of ecosystems will be continuously strengthened, nuclear and radiation safety levels will keep rising, national ecological security will be effectively guaranteed, an ecological and environmental governance system adapted to the requirements of building a Beautiful China will be steadily refined, a number of demonstration models for building a Beautiful China will be established, and the people’s sense of gain, happiness, and security from the ecological environment will be continuously enhanced. It also makes an outlook on the 2035 targets and proposes accelerating the formation of the overall layout for building a Beautiful China. (Xinhua News Agency) The Plan mentions increasing efforts in energy conservation and carbon reduction transformation in key industries such as thermal power, steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, and building materials, promoting and popularizing energy-saving and low-carbon technologies, and achieving energy savings of more than 150 million mt of standard coal. With the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas as the focus, industrial coal-fired boilers with a capacity of 65 steam tonnes per hour or below will be gradually phased out. The substitution of clean energy for coal-fired boilers and industrial kilns in industries such as food, textiles, and papermaking will be advanced. [Ministry of Finance and Two Other Departments: Adjusting Vehicle and Vessel Tax Preferential Policies for Energy-Saving Vehicles and NEVs] On July 2, the Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on adjusting vehicle and vessel tax preferential policies for energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles. It states that from January 1, 2027, the policy of halving vehicle and vessel tax for energy-saving vehicles will be abolished, and the exemption from vehicle and vessel tax for pure electric commercial vehicles, plug-in hybrid (including extended-range) vehicles, and fuel cell commercial vehicles will be abolished. Vehicles of the above types newly acquired by taxpayers or acquired before the implementation of this announcement shall be subject to vehicle and vessel tax in accordance with the Vehicle and Vessel Tax Law of the People’s Republic of China, its implementation regulations, and other relevant provisions. [PBOC: To conduct 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation on July 6, with 3-month tenor] To keep banking system liquidity ample, on July 6, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation via a fixed-quantity, interest rate tender with multiple-price winning bids, with a tenor of 3 months (91 days), maturing on October 5, 2026 (adjusted for holidays if it falls on a holiday). (Jinshi Data APP) On the dollar front: Overnight last Friday, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 100.91. On the weekly chart: The dollar index fell on a weekly basis, down 0.44% for the week, its biggest weekly decline since mid-April. The decline occurred as US June employment data cooled noticeably, leading the market to lower expectations for near-term Fed rate hikes, and the dollar index fell this week. Against a weaker dollar backdrop, the euro rose to $1.1440, up about 0.5% for the week; sterling rose to $1.3352, up about 1.1% for the week, its best performance in nearly three months. The yen rebounded from near a 40-year low, with USD/JPY once pulling back to around 161, though still at elevated levels. Japan continued to release signals of forex intervention, with finance and cabinet officials stating they are closely monitoring markets and remain prepared to intervene. Analysts pointed out that the dollar's movement has clearly been influenced by employment data and interest rate expectations, and if subsequent economic data continue to weaken, the dollar could still face further pressure. However, whether the yen can sustain its rebound still depends on the US-Japan interest rate differential and Japan's policy actions. (Jinshi Data APP) "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos said: Trump stated that he considers Fed Chairman Warsh to be on the dovish side within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). A day earlier, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett made similar remarks; a week earlier, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he hoped the Fed would remain "open-minded" on inflation and expects the Fed to ease policy this year. A new era of "forward guidance"... (Jinshi Data APP) BNP Paribas Chief Economist Isabel Mateos y Lago said: "If July's nonfarm payrolls are very strong, close to or exceeding 130,000, then I think the July meeting will be full of suspense. The uncertainty may not be as high now, but in my view, the case for a Fed rate hike remains valid." Ahead of the July 4 holiday, short-term interest rate futures markets expected a roughly 20% probability of a Fed rate hike at the July 29 rate decision, down from 33% before the release of the payrolls report. Markets still expect the US Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points this year, but not until December at the earliest. For the ECB, Lagarde said, "The baseline expectation remains another rate hike in September. But it is worth noting that Governing Council members speaking at the Sintra meeting did not rule out skipping this additional hike." She warned that the normalization of energy supply could take six months or longer to take effect, and eurozone inflation could accelerate again. Even so, she also believes that consumer prices outside energy-affected areas will not face pressure. Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran said, "The US non-farm payrolls data was actually weak, but I still think inflation will peak above 3.7%, and AI, fiscal stimulus and the energy sector are still supporting economic growth. The US Fed may have to raise rates in September. I think this is where the real divergence between Europe and the US lies." Subran believes that after last month's hike, the ECB will not act again. "That was an insurance hike, but judging from the current data, it seems that moment has passed," he said. "The trauma effect of the war (with Iran) takes time to manifest. The economy is still bearing the costs of war, but the situation is much better than a few weeks ago."(Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: ECB Governing Council member Mullan said that as falling oil prices ease price pressures in the eurozone, the ECB is in a favorable position after last month's rate hike. Mullan said that while it is too early to predict the next two meetings in July and September, officials have made clear that "we will not enter a new rate-hiking cycle." Mullan said, "For now, we are in a favorable position. The balance of risks is also at a reasonable level." Mullan added, "Falling oil prices will ease inflation pressure in the services sector," and "we have not yet seen second-round effects."(Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of Switzerland June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Eurozone July Sentix Investor Confidence Index, Eurozone May PPI m/m, Eurozone May retail sales m/m, US June S&P Global Services PMI Final, US June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, US June Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, Germany May seasonally adjusted industrial output m/m, UK June Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index m/m, France May trade balance, US ADP employment change for the week ended June 20, US May trade balance, China June foreign exchange reserves, Japan May trade balance, New Zealand interest rate decision for July 8, US May wholesale sales m/m, China June CPI y/y, China June PPI y/y, Germany May seasonally adjusted trade balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4, US June existing home sales annualized, Germany June CPI m/m final, France June CPI m/m final, Switzerland June consumer confidence index, Canada June employment change, China June M2 money supply y/y, and other data. Additionally, events to watch this week include: a 900 billion yuan outright reverse repo maturing today; speeches from Fed Governor Waller, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch, and Deputy Governor of Sveriges Riksbank Seim; Turkey hosts the NATO summit through July 8; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its interest rate decision; RBNZ Governor Bremman holds a monetary policy press conference; the Fed releases minutes of its monetary policy meeting; the ECB releases minutes of its June monetary policy meeting; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech; and 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan delivers a speech. Crude Oil: In overnight trading last Friday, both oil futures edged up slightly, with WTI up 0.13% and Brent up 0.19%. On the weekly chart: WTI futures fell for a fourth consecutive week, down 0.65% for the week; Brent futures also declined for a fourth straight week, down 0.91% for the week. The crude oil market is relatively stable, with Brent stabilizing near $72 per barrel as the market weighs the supply outlook around the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of US-Iran negotiations. (Wall Street News) Data from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) show: In the week ending June 30, Brent crude futures speculators cut their net long positions by 34,704 contracts to 55,634 contracts. Gasoil futures speculators cut their net long positions by 2,664 contracts to 57,852 contracts. (Jin10 Data APP) Data show that oil exports from the Gulf region in June increased by more than 3 million barrels per day (bpd) from May, exceeding 10 million bpd, but still 40% below pre-war levels. The UAE led the recovery in oil markets, enabling millions of barrels of crude stranded in the Gulf region to enter international markets, allowing producers to raise output and push oil prices down to pre-war levels. Kpler data show that combined crude and condensate exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran rose by more than 3.5 million bpd from May to 10.07 million bpd. Vortexa, another cargo analytics firm, estimated June shipments at 10.2 million bpd, up from 7 million bpd in May, but still well below the 16.5 million bpd recorded a year earlier. According to data from Kpler, Vortexa and LSEG, the UAE’s crude exports reached a record 3.7 million to 3.8 million bpd in June, more than 1 million bpd above May’s level. (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, three sources said that Venezuela’s largest refinery, the 645,000-bpd Amuay refinery, has resumed operations after a power outage on Friday and is currently processing about 140,000 bpd of crude, with the fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit also back online. Following two earthquakes last week that caused heavy casualties, multiple refineries in Venezuela were affected by power outages. Sources also said that the El Palito refinery, with a daily processing capacity of 146,000 barrels, has had power restored, but staff have not yet been able to restart the production units. (Jinshi Data APP) A Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s crude oil production rebounded sharply in June, up about 3.3 million barrels per day MoM to 19.43 million barrels per day, a clear rebound from May’s more-than-two-decade low, but still well below quota levels. The recovery in output mainly came from Gulf countries restoring supply, with Kuwait posting the largest increase; Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq also raised output in tandem. Nigeria and Libya likewise made small increases. The UAE exited OPEC on May 1 and is no longer included in the statistics. The report noted that the earlier Iran war and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted supply; the US subsequently lifted restrictions on vessels at Iranian ports, helping some output recover. Although OPEC+ had planned to increase production in June, the plan was not fully implemented due to the war. Overall, global crude oil supply was being repaired, but had not yet returned to normal levels. (Jinshi Data APP) Recommended Reading:

SMM July 2 news: Metal markets: As of midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper and SHFE aluminum each fell within 0.2%. SHFE lead fell 0.72%. SHFE zinc fell 1.04%. SHFE tin rose 0.15%. SHFE nickel fell 0.41%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures fell 0.97%, while the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.21%. Lithium carbonate most-traded futures extended gains from the previous three trading days, rising another 1.26%. Silicon metal most-traded futures fell 0.18%. Polysilicon most-traded futures rose 0.36%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore rose 0.54%. HRC and rebar fell within 0.5% each, and stainless steel fell 0.92%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.28%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.96%. In overseas base metal markets, as of 11:39 am, LME metals nearly all fell. LME copper fell 0.31%, LME aluminum fell 0.19%, LME lead was flat at $1,866.5/mt. LME zinc fell 0.2%, LME tin edged lower, and LME nickel fell 0.4%. In precious metals, as of 11:39 am, COMEX gold fell 0.16% and COMEX silver rose 0.03%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 1.28%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 2.06%. In addition, as of midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 5.12%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 2.82%. As of midday close, the most-traded European route container freight futures fell 2.12% to 2,561 points. As of 11:39 am on July 2, midday futures quotes for select contracts: Spot and Fundamentals Aluminum: In the morning session, the trading center of the SHFE aluminum 2606 contract was higher than that of the same period on the previous trading day. Warrant cargoes continued to flow out of the market, and circulating spot supply was generally ample. Downstream only saw sporadic restocking, and with bearish sentiment spreading in the futures market, end-user purchase willingness was overall weak. Mainstream transactions were at parity to a premium of 20 yuan/mt over the SHFE aluminum 2607 contract... Macro Front Domestic: [The mandatory national standard "Safety Requirements for Combined Driving Assistance System of Intelligent and Connected Vehicles" was officially released] On June 27, the mandatory national standard "Safety Requirements for Combined Driving Assistance System of Intelligent and Connected Vehicles" (GB 47955—2026), organized, formulated and centralized by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, was approved and released by the State Administration for Market Regulation and the National Standardization Administration, and is scheduled to be officially implemented on January 1, 2027. 《Safety Requirements for Intelligent Connected Vehicles—Combined Driver Assistance Systems, grounded in the needs of industry development and regulatory oversight in China, takes into account technical feasibility, product compatibility, and practical implementability, and establishes a safety indicator framework with clear requirements, comprehensive dimensions, and alignment with national conditions. First, it fully considers different product forms and technical routes, proposing applicable safety requirements for three types of combined driver assistance system products: basic single-lane, basic multi-lane, and navigation driver assistance. Second, based on China’s road traffic characteristics, it sets out baseline requirements to ensure the safe operation of combined driver assistance systems across dimensions such as functional requirements, data recording, and vehicle manufacturer safety assurance. Third, recognizing the core positioning of these systems as "assistance" in driving, it puts forward requirements for user usage and operation in areas such as human-machine interaction, usage instructions, and user training, providing a foundational guarantee for proper coordination between users and systems. Fourth, in line with the practical needs of China’s industry management, it builds a multi-tiered evaluation approach encompassing field tests, road tests, and document inspections to comprehensively assess system safety capabilities. The PBOC conducted ¥288.5 billion in 7-day reverse repos today, with an operation rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous level. Today, ¥370.5 billion in reverse repos matured. US Dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index fell 0.03% to 101.39. Fed Chairman Warsh said Wednesday that inflation expectations and inflation risks have both declined in recent weeks, while reiterating the Fed’s commitment to bringing inflation down to the 2% target. "In the first few weeks of this period, inflation expectations have pulled back, and inflation risks have also eased," Warsh said. "If households, the business community, or financial markets think the Fed is comfortable with inflation above 2%—well, they are likely to be disappointed: we will ensure price stability in the US." Fed Chairman Warsh sidestepped questions on whether the Fed might raise rates at its July meeting. "I hope that when we meet in four weeks, we can have a robust 'internal family debate,'" he said. "When we close the doors and sit down together, we will have a vigorous debate. But beyond that, I have no further information to share." Warsh made the remarks at the ECB’s annual policy conference in Sintra, Portugal; this was his first public appearance since his inaugural press conference at the Fed last month. Since then, investors have begun to anticipate more rate hikes from the Fed, but the market currently sees the likelihood of a first hike this month at less than 50%. According to CME "Fed Watch": The probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged in July is 71.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 28.3%. The probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged by September is 36.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 49.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 14.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) On the data front: US manufacturing expanded for a sixth consecutive month in June, with the war-driven surge in input costs easing. Printing, electrical equipment, and textiles led the gains, while paper products, furniture, and wood products contracted. Market attention has now shifted to Thursday's US employment report. Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank and Wealth Management, noted that with Warsh prioritizing inflation, the June non-farm payrolls data is "unlikely to change rate expectations on its own." He added that hiring related to the FIFA World Cup is expected to distort the data. (Wall Street Insights) Data front: Today will see the release of the US June unemployment rate, US June seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US initial jobless claims for the week ended June 27, US June average hourly earnings year-over-year, US June average hourly earnings month-over-month, US May factory orders month-over-month, Switzerland June CPI month-over-month, eurozone May unemployment rate, among other data. Additionally, watch for: the Ministry of Commerce's regular press conference for the first week of July, and 2027 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly’s participation in a conference on the Spanish economy. Due to the US Independence Day holiday (July 3), the US June non-farm payrolls data will be released earlier on July 2 (Thursday) at 20:30 Beijing time. US stock markets will be closed on July 3 (Friday). Trading in precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, US Treasury, and equity index futures contracts on CME will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on July 4. Trading in Brent crude oil futures contracts on ICE will end early at 01:30 Beijing time on July 4. Investors are advised to take note. (Jin10 Data APP) Crude oil: As of 11:39, oil prices in both markets extended their decline from the previous two trading sessions, with WTI down 1.4% and Brent down 1.24%. International crude oil prices pulled back due to progress in Middle East peace talks. (Wall Street Insights) As supply through the Strait of Hormuz rebounded, OCBC Group Research lowered its quarterly crude oil forecasts through the end of Q2 2027. Two OCBC strategists noted in a research report: "With the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, shipping and crude oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded."They also said, "Market expectations that crude oil supply would return to normal quickly pushed oil prices back to pre-conflict levels, rekindling oversupply rhetoric." OCBC cut its Brent crude price forecast for Q3 2026 from $85 to $75 per barrel, Q4 2026 from $80 to $75, Q1 2027 from $75 to $73, and Q2 2027 from $75 to $71. (Jin10 Data APP) Increasing energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz prompted UBS to cut its 2026-2027 oil price forecast. UBS now expects Brent crude to average $84 per barrel this year, down $9 from its previous forecast. The bank also cut its 2027 oil price forecast from $85 to $75 per barrel. UBS said, "The decline in geopolitical risk and the rapid rebound in supply led to a larger price drop than we had expected." The bank expects oil prices to rebound slightly to $80 per barrel in H2 this year as floating storage in the Gulf region normalizes and demand recovers. UBS also believes risk premiums will be higher because the path to normalization may remain bumpy. UBS said, "The need to replenish inventories should continue to support prices through the end of 2027, but the required magnitude of stock rebuilding is smaller than the 1 billion barrels we previously expected." (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Warsh Reiterates Inflation Bottom Line, SHFE Tin Contracts Maintain Fluctuating Trend]

[SMM Morning News on Tin: Macro Headwinds Weigh on Tin Prices, Retreat After Rapid Rise; Spot Cargoes Plunge Into "High Prices Suppressing Demand" Dilemma]

SMM, Jul 2: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals on overseas and China markets showed mixed performance. Only LME nickel, SHFE copper, and SHFE tin rose, with SHFE tin up 0.99%, LME nickel up 0.49%, and SHFE copper up 0.07%. SHFE aluminum closed flat at 22,485 yuan/mt. LME zinc led the decline, down 1.68%, while losses in other metals were within 1%. The most-traded alumina contract rose 0.11%, and the most-traded aluminum casting contract rose 0.4%. In the ferrous metals sector overnight, iron ore led gains, up 1.7%. Rebar rose 0.1%, while stainless steel fell 0.54% and hot-rolled coil edged down 0.09%. Coking coal and coke, coking coal closed flat at 1,265 yuan/mt, and coke fell 1.12%. In the precious metals sector overnight, COMEX gold rose 0.15% and COMEX silver fell 0.53%. On the domestic front, SHFE gold rose 1.23% and SHFE silver rose 1.44%. As of 6:43 a.m. on Jul 2, overnight closing quotes: Macro Front China: The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, compiled by RatingDog, came in at 51.7 in June, staying in expansion territory for the seventh consecutive month. [Shenzhen Housing Market Trading Volume Hits Near 6-Year High in June] Data released today by the Shenzhen Centaline Research Center showed that combined new and second-hand residential home sales in Shenzhen reached 8,878 units in June, down 11.9% MoM but up 14.2% YoY. This was the highest transaction volume for the same period since 2021. Specifically, online registrations of new homes (pre-sale and move-in) totaled 3,785 units, down 16.7% MoM but up 15.6% YoY. Second-hand home transfers reached 5,093 units, down 8% MoM but up 13.1% YoY. (Jinshi Data APP) US Dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 101.41. Fortress Securities stated that investors are underestimating the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates as early as this month, as Chairman Kevin Warsh appears ready to take a more preemptive approach to fighting inflation. The firm's head of macro strategy, Frank Flight, continues to view two rate hikes this year—in September and December—as his base case. Even so, he noted that the market is pricing in a roughly 30% probability of a July hike, a level he considers too low. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh set an ambitious timetable for the US central bank to "discover" and begin relying on real-time economic data, which he argues would be superior to what he described as "problematic government reports." "My aspiration is that in nine to 12 months, we will be leveraging new technologies to understand what is happening in the real economy in a synchronous, real-time manner, enabling us as central bank policymakers to make better decisions. We will no longer rely solely on data from government agencies that suffer from statistical biases and where surveys have lost their relevance," Warsh said at a monetary policy forum in Portugal. "My ideal data is 'what's happening now.' If we do our jobs well, a year from today we will say: we have uncovered data that helps us make better decisions." Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh stated at the ECB Forum on Central Banking (the final day of the Sintra annual conference) that inflation risks have receded over the past four weeks, while he reaffirmed his commitment to price stability. He declined to provide any forward guidance on future interest rate policy. He described the labour market as "holding steady," noting robust economic demand and strong supply-side performance. Deutsche Bank analysis pointed out that Fed officials' public remarks have declined notably since the Jun 17 FOMC meeting, confirming Warsh's earlier policy stance that "US central bank officials talk too much" and that there is a need to reduce forward guidance and push for "institutional change." (Wallstreetcn) Data: US private-sector job growth slowed in June but increased for the 12th consecutive month, showing the labour market cooldown has yet to evolve into a sharp slowdown. Data released Wednesday by ADP Research showed US private payrolls rose by 98,000 in June, below the 119,000 estimated by economists. The prior month's figure was an increase of 122,000. Although the gain missed expectations, the data still supports the judgment that the labour market has been stabilizing this year. Macro Front: Data releases today include the US June unemployment rate, US June seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US initial jobless claims for the week ended Jun 27, US June average hourly earnings YoY, US June average hourly earnings MoM, US May factory orders MoM, Switzerland June CPI MoM, and the Eurozone May unemployment rate. Due to the US Independence Day holiday (Jul 3), US June non-farm payrolls data will be released earlier, at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time on Thursday, Jul 2. The US stock market will be closed on Friday, Jul 3. Trading in CME precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, US Treasury, and equity index futures contracts will end early at 1:00 a.m. Beijing time on Jul 4. Trading in ICE Brent crude oil futures contracts will end early at 1:30 a.m. Beijing time on Jul 4. Investors are advised to take note. (Jinshi Data APP) In addition, the Ministry of Commerce will hold its first regular press conference for July. 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will attend a conference on the Spanish economy. Crude Oil: Overnight, oil prices fell across both benchmarks, with WTI crude down 2.03% and Brent crude down 2.41%. The immediate driver of the heavy sell-off was a rapid easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. A White House spokesperson explicitly stated there is a strong chance of reaching a deal between the US and Iran, with delegations from both sides having held indirect talks in Doha on Jul 1 on topics including unfreezing assets and ensuring maritime security in the strait. Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley concluded that the global oil market is about to return to severe oversupply. Even accounting for the massive global demand to replenish strategic petroleum reserves, the daily average net surplus in the crude oil market next year will still approach 2 million barrels, exerting long-term pressure on oil prices. (Wallstreetcn) Official data showed US crude oil inventories fell from 415 million barrels at the end of February to 331 million barrels as of Jun 19, hitting their lowest level since 1983. Although these depleted reserves urgently need to be rebuilt, this is not enough to reverse the surplus pattern. Samantha Dart, Goldman Sachs' co-head of global commodities research, estimated global demand to replenish strategic petroleum reserves is slightly above 1 million barrels per day. While this will tighten the market to some extent, it can only partially offset the anticipated surplus, with the market ultimately still facing a net surplus of nearly 2 million barrels per day. Regarding market concerns over future shipping costs in the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman Sachs believes the material impact on global energy prices would be limited. (Wallstreetcn)

[SMM Tin Midday Commentary: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Pulled Back After Hitting Highs, Consolidating Around 390,000 This Morning]

SMM, June 30: Metals market: Overnight, base metals on overseas and Chinese markets mostly fell, with only LME copper and SHFE zinc rising together—LME copper fell 0.17%, while SHFE zinc gained 0.12%. LME aluminum dropped 3.11%, leading the decline; LME nickel, SHFE aluminum, and SHFE nickel all fell more than 2%, with LME nickel down 2.41%, SHFE aluminum down 2.19%, and SHFE nickel down 2.55%. LME tin fell 1.27%, and declines in other metals were all within 1%. Alumina main contract fell 0.82%, and cast aluminum main contract fell 1.08%. Overnight, in ferrous metals, iron ore gained 0.61%, stainless steel fell 0.92%, HRC and rebar fluctuated with relatively small declines, and in coking coal and coke, coking coal gained 0.16% while coke fell 0.18%. Overnight, in precious metals, COMEX gold fell 1.61% and COMEX silver fell 1.54%. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.25% and SHFE silver fell 0.98%. As of 6:42 AM on June 30, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting, which reviewed and approved the "15th Five-Year Plan Action Plan for Carbon Peaking" and the "15th Five-Year Plan for National Health"] Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting, which reviewed and approved the "15th Five-Year Plan Action Plan for Carbon Peaking" and the "15th Five-Year Plan for National Health". The meeting noted that the strategic driving role of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality should be leveraged to promote the transformation and upgrading of the economic structure and create more green economic growth points. It is necessary to focus on key areas and critical links with sustained effort, accelerate the adjustment and optimization of the energy structure, advance industrial greening and low-carbonisation, improve systems for laws, regulations, standards, and carbon emission statistical accounting, conduct evaluation and assessment in a scientific and orderly manner, integrate green and low-carbon orientation into all areas and links of the national economic cycle, promote the formation of green production and lifestyles, and strengthen the green foundation for high-quality development. The meeting noted that in recent years, the construction of a Healthy China has accelerated, and people's health levels have continued to improve. It is necessary to build a full-life-cycle health service system, coordinate resource allocation, strengthen synergy among medical care, medical insurance, and disease control, and provide the public with systematic, continuous, high-quality, and efficient health services. It is necessary to vigorously develop the health industry, improve supporting policies, cultivate and expand new-type service formats in the health sector, enrich the supply of health products, strictly enforce quality and safety supervision, and enable the public to consume with confidence and live healthily. (CCTV News) [Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting and heard a report on the development of artificial intelligence] Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting and heard a report on the development of artificial intelligence. The meeting noted that it is necessary to deeply grasp the evolution trends of AI, improve supporting policies and governance systems, and firmly hold the initiative in development. Efforts should be intensified to promote AI innovation and breakthroughs, accelerate key technology research and the construction of ultra-large-scale intelligent computing clusters, strengthen the supply of high-quality data, enhance the guarantee of factors such as talent and capital, and support enterprises in conducting basic research and frontier exploration. It is necessary to deeply implement the "AI+" initiative, leverage China's advantages in having a complete industrial system and abundant application scenarios, and promote the accelerated large-scale commercial application of intelligent products and services. The bottom line of AI safety must be firmly upheld, improving institutional rules on technology ethics and testing and certification, building a dynamically adaptive, tiered, and classified safety regulatory system, and strengthening international cooperation on AI governance. (CCTV News) [Multiple Shanghai municipal departments jointly held a centralized meeting on the compliance governance of ride-hailing platforms] On the afternoon of June 29, led by the Shanghai Ride-Hailing Collaborative Supervision Task Force and coordinating multiple departments including transportation, public security, market regulation, human resources and social security, data, and communications management, a centralized meeting on compliance governance of ride-hailing platform enterprises was held citywide. The main responsible persons from 24 ride-hailing platforms and aggregation platforms in the city attended the meeting. Targeting various problems identified during inspections, the meeting specified five mandatory compliance governance requirements: first, platforms must strictly regulate capacity access management, comprehensively screen and remove non-compliant vehicles and personnel, and strictly prohibit dispatching orders in violation of regulations; second, improve the routine self-inspection mechanism for operational data to ensure that data is reported to regulatory authorities in a complete, timely, and standardized manner; third, implement full-chain control of safety production, strengthen dynamic verification of personnel and vehicle qualifications, and build a solid line of defense for safe operations; fourth, fully standardize the fee disclosure mechanism, with clear price labeling and transparent charging, to protect the legitimate rights and interests of both drivers and passengers; fifth, simultaneously enhance network security operation and maintenance management, complete network security graded protection assessments on schedule, and promptly identify and eliminate system security risks. (Shanghai Transportation) (Jinshi Data APP) US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.25% to close at 101.11, recording its third consecutive daily decline. US President Donald Trump responded on his social media platform to the "Supreme Court ruling on the case concerning a Federal Reserve Board member", stating: We will take corresponding action regarding the Cook lawsuit to ensure that Cook will not make crucial decisions (on FOMC monetary policy issues). Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari publicly stated last Friday that his assessment of the federal funds rate has undergone a fundamental shift over the past three months. In March of this year, Kashkari still leaned toward the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points. In his latest dot plot projections, however, he has marked one rate hike to be implemented within the year. As an official with voting rights on the FOMC in 2026, his shift in view also reflects a significant adjustment in the Fed's overall policy tone. The market simultaneously digested the signal of a collective hawkish turn by the Fed, leading to notable pricing adjustments. In early June, the probability of a rate hike within the year priced in by the market was only 25%; that figure has now climbed to 67%. (Wall Street CN) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed maintaining rates unchanged in July is 70.1%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 29.9%. By September, the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 37.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 48.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike is 14.1%. (Jinshi Data APP) Other currencies: The yen depreciated against the US dollar to its lowest level since 1986. This "milestone" decline has sparked concerns within Japan and also put traders on high alert, closely watching whether authorities will intervene in the market. The yen briefly fell 0.1% against the dollar, touching 161.96, thereby breaching the 161.95 level reached in July 2024 when Japan took action to prop up the currency. The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to 1% on June 16, the highest level since 1995. However, this move had little effect, as traders expect the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance going forward. Furthermore, the Japanese government is expected to call for the implementation of "appropriate" currency management in its basic policy guidelines, a move apparently aimed at dissuading the central bank from further rate hikes. Japan previously conducted record-scale foreign exchange intervention totaling ¥11.73 trillion, yet the yen remained persistently weak. According to the Ministry of Finance's foreign reserve data, Japan likely utilized its holdings of foreign securities, including US Treasury bonds, during this round of intervention to support the currency. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Data to be released today include China's June official manufacturing PMI, US April FHFA House Price Index month-over-month, US April S&P/CS 20-City Unadjusted House Price Index year-over-year, US June Chicago PMI, US May JOLTS Job Openings, US June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, UK Q1 GDP final year-over-year, UK Q1 Current Account, Germany June seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany June CPI month-over-month preliminary, France June CPI month-over-month preliminary, Switzerland June KOF Economic Leading Indicator, Canada April GDP month-over-month, and Japan May unemployment rate. In addition, ECB President Lagarde delivered opening remarks at the Global Central Bank Forum in Sintra, the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting, and the US and Iran held technical negotiations. Notably, on July 1, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will be closed for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with Northbound and Southbound Trading shut. The Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada will also be closed for Canada Day. On the crude oil front: Overnight, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 1.72% and Brent up 1.34%. US-Iran geopolitical tensions flared up again, but optimistic market expectations for the gradual resumption of energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz capped the gains to some extent. Morgan Stanley stated that due to the faster-than-expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with high US exports and low Chinese imports, it lowered its Brent crude oil price forecast. It cut its Q3 2026 price forecast by $15 to $75 per barrel; Q4 2026 by $5 to $75; Q1 and Q2 2027 by $5 to $75; and Q3 and Q4 2027 by $10 to $70. It noted: "For the market to balance in 2027, oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz need only recover to 11-12 million barrels per day, about 65% of pre-conflict levels. Looking ahead to 2027, our model assumes this figure will be exceeded, and observable inventories will increase by 3 million barrels per day, which may put pressure on oil prices." (Wall Street CN) According to data from the US Department of Energy (DOE), crude oil inventories in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) decreased by 5.5 million barrels to 325.7 million barrels, the lowest level since May 1983. This drawdown was part of an agreement reached by the US to release 172 million barrels of crude from the reserve to fill global inventory gaps following the Iran conflict and help lower fuel prices. Amid strong US crude exports and refining demand, US crude inventories have declined rapidly in recent weeks. Since the conflict erupted at end-February, total US inventories through June 19, including commercial stocks and the SPR, have fallen by 111.4 million barrels to 743.3 million barrels, the lowest since 1984. (Jin10 Data APP) US President Trump posted that gasoline retailers must immediately lower prices. Given that crude oil prices have fallen to $68 per barrel and are still declining, current gasoline prices are far too high. Retailers must respond swiftly to this statement and take the right actions they know well—lower prices for our great American people. Price gouging will never be allowed; it is completely illegal. If retailers do not comply, they will face major trouble ahead! The target price should be around $2.50 per gallon (note: the current national average gasoline price is about $3.86 per gallon), and California should stop taxing gasoline so heavily. Soon, the tax will exceed the product price itself; the US will never tolerate this, and the people of California won't either—they are being squeezed by these absurd taxes and their state government. (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM June 27 News: Metals market: Last Friday’s overnight session saw nearly all base metals on the domestic market rise. SHFE zinc gained 2.16%, SHFE copper rose 0.9%, SHFE aluminum edged up 0.81%, and SHFE tin advanced 1.66%. SHFE nickel increased 0.36%. SHFE lead dipped 0.37%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract climbed 0.64%, while the most-traded foundry aluminum contract rose 1.66%. Last Friday’s overnight session saw mostly gains in ferrous metals. Stainless steel added 0.48%, iron ore rose 0.54%, and rebar slipped 0.1%. Hot-rolled coil was flat at 3,312 yuan/mt. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract gained 1.13%, and the most-traded coke futures contract rose 1.21%. Last Friday’s overnight session in overseas metals saw broad gains for LME base metals. LME copper edged up. LME aluminum rose 0.39%, while LME lead fell 0.58%. LME zinc gained 1.8%. LME tin advanced 1.69%. LME nickel dipped 0.36%. Last Friday’s overnight session in precious metals : COMEX gold rose 1.37%, but COMEX gold posted a fourth consecutive weekly decline, down 3.37% for the week; COMEX silver gained 1.37%, while COMEX silver fell for a seventh straight week, down 10.79% for the week. Last Friday’s overnight session saw the most-traded SHFE gold contract rise 1.34%, but SHFE gold declined on a weekly basis, down 6.33% for the week; the most-traded SHFE silver contract climbed 2.61%, while SHFE silver declined on a weekly basis, down 15.23% for the week. Macquarie strategists noted that all eyes are currently on the trajectory of inflation and whether central banks, particularly the US Fed, will tighten policy to control prices. The apparent end of the Middle East conflict, combined with a more hawkish Fed stance, has led to a pullback in gold prices. The first meeting under new Fed Chair Walsh struck a “hawkish” tone, with the central bank under his leadership having the capacity to either “drive or suppress” the gold market. The shock from the Middle East situation is expected to drag on global growth in Q3, after which an eventual rebound in global growth and the start of a monetary easing cycle should push gold prices lower, as more investor funds rotate out of precious metals and into other assets. Investors have been taking profits and rotating into equities, which has created room for re-entry into precious metals and could drive a price rebound, but a significant macro event may be needed to reignite investor interest in gold. Spot gold prices are forecast to average $4,641 in 2026, up 35% YoY, but the average price is expected to decline 9.5% to $4,200 in 2027, followed by yearly declines through 2030. The bank lowered its year-end spot gold forecast to $4,300 from $4,400. (Jin10 Data APP) As of 7:46 a.m. on June 27, closing prices from last Friday’s overnight session: Macro front China: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Profits of China’s industrial enterprises above designated size grew 18.8% in January–May, with the electronics sector providing significant support] Data from the NBS showed that total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 3,143.96 billion yuan in January–May, up 18.8% YoY. From January to May, among industrial enterprises above designated size, state-controlled enterprises realized total profits of 1,048.66 billion yuan, up 19.6% YoY; joint-stock enterprises realized total profits of 2,434.81 billion yuan, up 24.1% YoY; foreign-invested enterprises and those funded by Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan investors realized total profits of 695.72 billion yuan, up 4.2% YoY; and private enterprises realized total profits of 772.65 billion yuan, up 10.7% YoY. Yu Weining, chief statistician of the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), interpreted the profit data of industrial enterprises for January–May 2026. Yu Weining noted that the electronics sector played a significant supporting role. From January to May, profits of the equipment manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 14.1% YoY, boosting the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size by 5.2 percentage points. From an industry perspective, the global AI technology revolution has led to explosive demand for high-end computing power chips and memory chips, driving rapid profit growth in the electronics sector. From January to May, profits of the electronics industry surged 103.9% YoY, contributing 43.1% to the profit growth of all industrial enterprises above designated size, making it a crucial underpinning for the relatively rapid profit growth of these enterprises. [Series of 7 National Standards for "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" Released] At a press conference held by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), it was announced that the series of national standards "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" has been officially released. With the rapid iteration of technologies such as large models, artificial intelligence is accelerating from the stage of perception and understanding into a new phase of generative decision-making and autonomous execution. An agent, as an intelligent system with capabilities in autonomous perception, memory, decision-making, interaction, and execution, represents an important application form of next-generation AI. It is also a key vehicle for AI technology to empower diverse industries and underpin high-quality development of the intelligent economy. The seven national standards in the "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" series released this time comprehensively cover core aspects including overall architecture, identity codes, identity management, agent description, agent discovery, agent interaction, and agent tool invocation. They systematically establish a closed-loop standards framework encompassing "identity identification—capability description—supply-demand discovery—collaborative interaction—tool invocation," effectively filling the standard gap in this field. With unified architecture and interaction rules established through these standards, enterprises can reuse standardized components, reduce customized development, and shorten time-to-market. At the same time, they lay an institutional foundation for cross-domain trustworthiness and secure interaction by establishing unified identity authentication and full traceability mechanisms. (CCTV News) The People's Bank of China and the General Administration of Customs have issued a notice to solicit public opinions on the "Administrative Measures for the Import and Export of Gold and Gold Products (Draft for Comments)." (From Wall Street CN APP) [Three Departments: Further Improve Work Related to Collection of Mineral Rights Transfer Proceeds] The Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Natural Resources, and State Taxation Administration have issued a notice on further improving the collection of mineral rights transfer proceeds, clarifying that late payment penalties for mineral rights transfer proceeds will no longer be collected starting August 1, 2026. If a mining rights holder fails to pay the mineral rights transfer proceeds in full and on time, a penalty of 0.2% per day will be charged from the date of default, with the total penalty not exceeding the principal amount owed. Penalties for mineral rights transfer proceeds will be recorded under the mineral rights transfer proceeds category and shared between central and local governments according to the same proportion as mineral rights transfer proceeds. Late payment penalties that have already accrued before the implementation of this notice shall continue to be paid in accordance with previous regulations, and penalty charges will not apply. US Dollar: The overnight US dollar index fell 0.1% last Friday, closing at 101.36. On a weekly basis, the dollar index recorded its second consecutive weekly gain, rising 0.6% for the week. US Treasury yields and the dollar edged lower as oil prices declined and the market reassessed the US interest rate outlook. The CME FedWatch Tool shows the probability of one rate hike this year remains high at 42%, while the chance of a second hike has dropped to 28% from 34% a week ago as inflation expectations cool. A Wall Street Journal survey indicates the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, set to be released at 10 a.m. US Eastern Time (10 p.m. Beijing Time), is expected to rise from 44.8 to 49. (Jinshi Data APP) Reuters Poll: 78 of 102 economists surveyed expect the Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% in 2026, compared with 72 of 102 economists who held this view in the early June survey. Artem Sakhbiev, FX strategist at BCA Research, said in a report that the recent rebound in the US dollar appears somewhat overextended and lacks the support needed to break out of the trading range of the past year. The Fed revised its interest rate projections upward at last week's meeting and explicitly focused on inflation. This led to a significant rise in inflation-adjusted real yields and eased concerns about political pressure for rate cuts, thereby boosting the dollar. However, this move now appears largely exhausted. The Fed is likely to hold rates steady, and the spread between short- and long-term yields could widen. (Jinshi Data APP) According to Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed mouthpiece," sources say the search for a new president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has reached an impasse. The initial list of candidates failed to yield a final selection, forcing the bank to restart the selection process, which has now lasted seven months. On the surface, this was just a minor procedural hiccup. But at the same time, the independence of the US Fed is facing a severe test. Reserve Bank presidents are crucial to the Fed's independence: they participate in setting interest rates, and their appointment process is deliberately designed to avoid influence from Washington politics. (Jin10 Data App) Fed official Kashkari stated that signs of widespread inflation led him to expect one rate hike this year in the Fed economic forecasts released earlier this month. Rates are expected to remain unchanged in 2027. In a media interview on Friday, Kashkari said: "I am concerned about inflation, not just related to the Middle East situation, but signs of broader inflationary pressures in the economy." The Iran war pushed up oil prices, and prices rose across many categories. This has intensified concerns among some Fed officials that inflation is becoming more broad-based and persistent, potentially requiring stronger action from the central bank. A report released earlier this week showed the May PCE annual rate came in at 4.1%, the largest increase since April 2023. Prices have exceeded the Fed's 2% target for over five years. In the dot plot forecasts released by the Fed last week, half of the officials who submitted dot plot projections expected at least one rate hike this year. (Jin10 Data App) The US goods trade deficit widened to its highest level in over a year in May, as exports fell and imports rose. Data released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed the goods trade deficit expanded 27.4% from the previous month to $105.8 billion, compared to an expected deficit of $85 billion. US goods exports fell 5.4% in May, dragged down mainly by declines in multiple categories, including shipments of industrial supplies. This category covers crude oil and petroleum products. Over the same period, imports rose 3.6%. (From Wall Street CN APP) In other currency news: As London experiences record-breaking heat, Bank of England officials are starting to worry that weather could become the next shock driving up inflation, just as the previous supply shock is fading. Climate scientists increasingly expect a strong El Niño event to form later this year into 2027, disrupting global weather patterns. Now, economists are also concerned this could trigger a new round of supply shocks, push up food inflation, and once again frustrate global central banks' efforts to fight inflation. (From Wall Street CN APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of data including the Eurozone June industrial sentiment index, Eurozone June economic sentiment index, US June Dallas Fed business activity index, Japan May unemployment rate, China June official manufacturing PMI, UK Q1 GDP annual rate final, UK Q1 current account, France June CPI monthly rate preliminary, Switzerland June KOF economic leading indicator, Germany June seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany June CPI monthly rate preliminary, Canada April GDP monthly rate, US April FHFA house price index monthly rate, US April S&P/CS 20-City non-seasonally adjusted house price index annual rate, US June Chicago PMI, US May JOLTS job openings, US June Conference Board consumer confidence index, China June RatingDog manufacturing PMI, France June manufacturing PMI final, Germany June manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone June manufacturing PMI final, UK June manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone June CPI annual rate preliminary, Eurozone June CPI monthly rate preliminary, US June Challenger job cuts, US June ADP employment change, US June S&P Global manufacturing PMI final, US June ISM manufacturing PMI, US May construction spending monthly rate, Switzerland June CPI monthly rate, Eurozone May unemployment rate, US June unemployment rate, US June seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 27, US June average hourly earnings annual rate, US June average hourly earnings monthly rate, US May factory orders monthly rate, China June RatingDog services PMI, France May industrial output monthly rate, France June services PMI final, Germany June services PMI final, Eurozone June services PMI final, UK June services PMI final, and other data. Additionally, this week, attention should be paid to: 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivering a speech; the ECB holding its Central Bank Forum in Sintra through July 1; the 2026 Beijing Space Computing Conference taking place from June 29 to 30; ECB President Lagarde speaking in Sintra; the Reserve Bank of Australia releasing the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting; the ECB holding its Central Bank Forum in Sintra; the US and Iran holding technical negotiations (to be confirmed); Fed Chairman Walsh, ECB President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaking at the ECB Forum; the ECB holding its Central Bank Forum in Sintra; ECB President Lagarde delivering a speech; Bank of England Governor Bailey speaking on the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy; and a new round of domestic refined oil product price adjustments opening in China. It is worth noting that on July 1, the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Market was closed for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with both Northbound and Southbound trading shut. On July 3, the US-NYSE was closed for the US Independence Day holiday; trading in CME precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, US Treasury, and equity index futures contracts ended early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 4th due to the US Independence Day holiday; trading in ICE Brent crude oil futures contracts ended early at 01:30 Beijing time on the 4th due to the US Independence Day holiday. In crude oil: Both oil futures fell in overnight trading last Friday, with US oil dropping 2.34% and Brent oil dropping 2.52%. On a weekly basis, US oil futures recorded a three-week losing streak, falling 7.4% for the week; Brent oil futures also fell for a third straight week, dropping 8.06% for the week. Brent spot crude oil prices fell back to pre-war levels, and the near-month contracts exhibited a contango structure—where near-term prices are lower than those further out—for seven consecutive days, reflecting a temporary oversupply. Tariq Zahir, a managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors, indicated that oil prices had "dropped too fast, too furiously," the ceasefire agreement remained fragile, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz was still fraught with variables, so fluctuations were expected to persist. Rich Privorotsky, head of Goldman Sachs' One-Delta business, pointed out that Iran had begun a show of force near the Strait of Hormuz, some cargo ships had altered their routes, and the inventory overhang in the Gulf region was gradually flowing into the market. He believed that while the probability of a significant near-term price rise in crude oil was limited, the basis for a further substantial drop from current prices was equally insufficient. (From Wallstreetcn APP) US natural gas drilling rig additions recorded the largest single-week increase in four years. Data from Baker Hughes showed that the number of active oil drilling rigs operated by US energy enterprises reached 440 last week, marking a two-week consecutive increase, up from 433 the previous week. Active natural gas drilling rigs rose to 573, recording the largest gain since June 2022, compared with the prior figure of 563. (From Wall Street Cn APP) A report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated that US refining capacity decreased by 263,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, a decline of 1.43%. This was primarily driven by the planned conversion of a major refinery in Houston and the closure of a refinery in the Los Angeles area due to market dynamics, which is known for strict environmental regulations. Marathon Petroleum, headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, maintained its position as the largest US refiner with a total refining capacity of 2.986 million bpd, accounting for 16.4% of the nation’s total capacity. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Furthermore, Iraq’s Ministry of Oil stated that OPEC has begun to gradually restore Iraq’s pre-war production quota, a move which will strengthen Iraq’s output capabilities and support the recovery of the oil sector. A high-level consensus has been reached within OPEC, fully taking into account Iraq’s past special circumstances and current actual needs. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Barclays said it has lowered its Brent crude oil price forecasts, cutting the 2026 estimate from $100 per barrel to $96, and the 2027 estimate from $88 to $85, citing the recovery of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded substantially, reaching about 80% of pre-war levels. However, this normalization process remains incomplete. The bank noted that Iran’s assertion of control through fee impositions and coordination mechanisms has created frictions and may potentially delay a full recovery. A temporary deal reached last week aimed at ending the US-Israeli war against Iran has allowed traffic on the Strait of Hormuz shipping route to resume. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Recommended Reading: