[Enterprises Gradually Resume Normal Production, Die-Casting Zinc Alloy Operating Rate Rises] The operating rate rise this week was mainly because enterprises that had suspended production due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday last week gradually resumed normal production this week, thus driving the operating rate higher. However, end-user orders were fundamentally weak. ......

This week, SHFE copper spot premiums flipped from discounts to premiums, climbing steadily overall. Early in the week, the pressure to sell off cargo at month-end was largely released, and destocking of social inventories supported a narrowing of discounts, with suppliers showing a stronger willingness to hold prices firm. Entering July, a new monthly procurement cycle began, downstream restocking demand was released intensively, and buying and selling sentiment picked up markedly, shifting the spot market from discounts to premiums. From mid-week to the weekend, inventories continued to destock, with social inventories in Shanghai and Jiangsu regions posting significant weekly declines, pushing the center of spot premiums further upward. SMM data showed that on July 2, Shanghai social inventory recorded by SMM stood at 126,500 mt, down 7,700 mt from the previous Thursday; Jiangsu inventory stood at 36,200 mt, down 5,000 mt from the previous Thursday, both showing a destocking trend. Looking ahead to next week, SHFE spot premiums are expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern, but the upside room may be limited by high price pressure. On the supply side, inventories have been continuously destocking recently, with tight available spot cargoes, while suppliers remain firm in holding prices, making low-priced sources hard to find. The import window remained closed, limiting replenishment from overseas sources, and the short-term tight supply situation is unlikely to reverse quickly. On the demand side, the early-month procurement cycle is still ongoing, with downstream rigid demand continuing to be released, but after copper prices rose, buying sentiment pulled back somewhat, weakening the willingness to chase higher prices. Regarding the price spread structure, the inter-month Contango spread maintained a certain width, supporting suppliers’ willingness to hold positions for delivery, which provides support for spot premiums. Overall, under the combined effect of inventory destocking and suppliers holding prices firm, SHFE spot premiums against the 2607 contract are expected to remain at premiums next week, with the overall strong trend continuing. However, further upside room for premiums will depend on downstream’s actual acceptance of high prices and subsequent inventory changes.

SMM Cobalt Morning Meeting Minutes: This week, the cobalt industry chain overall stopped falling and stabilized. Spot refined cobalt prices rebounded slightly, boosted by policy news from the DRC, and market sentiment recovered somewhat, but actual transactions were still dominated by rigid demand stockpiling. Cobalt intermediate product prices remained stable, with miners’ quotations firm but limited acceptance from downstream smelters, resulting in a significant bid-ask spread. Market transactions for cobalt sulphate, cobalt chloride, and Co3O4 remained sluggish, with strong downstream wait-and-see sentiment and restocking demand not yet significantly released. Cobalt powder prices continued to decline, as off-season pressure on cemented carbide persisted. Ternary cathode precursor prices weakened, while ternary cathode materials rebounded slightly but with limited transactions. LCO demand remained relatively weak.

[SMM Cobalt Lithium Morning Meeting Minutes: This week, overall sentiment in the industry chain recovered, as a rebound in upstream raw material prices drove some material prices higher. Lithium carbonate, LFP, and separator segments performed strongly. Downstream production schedules stayed high, with demand from energy storage, commercial vehicles, and power batteries still providing support. However, acceptance of high prices was limited, and actual transactions were mostly based on essential needs. Cobalt salts, nickel salts, and ternary cathode precursors remained in the doldrums, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing in the market. Overall, short-term prices may continue to drift higher, but attention still needs to be paid to raw material arrivals, the sustainability of restocking, and the realization of end-use demand going forward.]

On June 30, 2026, the National Energy Administration issued the Guide to Data Classification and Grading for the Energy Industry (2026 Edition), under which hydrogen energy was officially classified as a first-level energy data category, positioned alongside traditional fossil fuels such as coal, crude oil, and natural gas. This marks the end of the domestic hydrogen industry's single demonstration phase and its full entry into a development cycle characterized by large-scale, standardized systems. This top-level data system adjustment reshapes hydrogen energy's national strategic positioning, and by leveraging a unified data management framework to link the entire chain of green hydrogen cost reduction, storage and transportation infrastructure, and diversified applications, the industry is expected to usher in a new expansion cycle. I. Policy Iteration: The Strategic Status of Hydrogen Energy Achieves a Hierarchical Leap (A) Core Basis for the Document's Issuance The Guide serves as a supporting detailed rule for the implementation of the Data Security Law and the Administrative Measures for Energy Industry Data Security (Trial), delineating a total of 12 first-level energy data categories, including coal, oil and gas, and hydrogen energy. For the first time, hydrogen energy has been incorporated into the basic energy data sequence, integrating the hydrogen energy industry into the national unified energy security regulatory system. (B) Policy Evolution Trajectory In 2022, the Medium and Long-Term Plan for the Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035) legally affirmed the energy attribute of hydrogen energy for the first time, setting the goal of diversified commercial applications by 2035. With the implementation of this 2026 data classification document, hydrogen energy has completed its identity transition from a "demonstration and pilot industry" to a "national basic energy category." Industrial development has shifted from being driven purely by policy subsidies to a new phase where policy guidance, scenario validation, and market operations run in parallel. (C) Three Supporting Logics of the Top-Level Strategy Energy Security: Global geopolitical conflicts have intensified fluctuations in oil and gas imports. In 2025, China's dependence on foreign crude oil was 72.3%, and that on foreign natural gas was 43.8%. Hydrogen energy, produced from renewable resources such as wind, solar, and hydropower, can substantially reduce dependence on imported fossil energy while simultaneously fulfilling the carbon peaking and neutrality targets. Correction of Domestic Supply-Demand Mismatch: In 2024, China's total hydrogen production stood at 37.28 million mt, firmly ranking first in the world. Domestic planned green hydrogen capacity accounts for 52% of the global total planned green hydrogen capacity, yet the average annual operating rate of commissioned green hydrogen facilities is only 23.6%, with substantial electrolyzer capacity remaining idle. Unified data standards will compel the industry to shift from blindly expanding hydrogen production capacity toward demand-side development oriented to matching downstream consumption scenarios. Breakthrough in Global Hydrogen Competition: The EU will implement its Hydrogen Strategy Act in 2026, and the US allocates over $9 billion annually in hydrogen industry subsidies. Europe and the United States are accelerating their efforts to seize the discourse power in hydrogen standards and trade. By perfecting its local standard system through hydrogen energy data classification management, China aims to shore up its industrial digital shortcomings and enhance the international competitiveness of its hydrogen energy projects and equipment exports. II. Industrial Empowerment Value of the First-Level Hydrogen Data Classification System (A) Establishing a Bottom Line for Whole-Chain Data Compliance and Security The Guide uniformly categorizes all energy data into three control levels: general, important, and core, covering the entire process of hydrogen production, storage, transportation, refueling, and utilization. It specifies mandatory control rules: Geographic infrastructure data for hydrogen refueling stations, hydrogen production bases, and pipeline networks with coordinate accuracy ≤100 meters is classified as important data, with strict limits on external disclosure. Real-time operational control commands for water electrolysis hydrogen production units and sensor data from high-pressure storage and transportation equipment are classified as core data, with unencrypted external transmission prohibited. Electricity load data from wind- and solar-power integrated new energy plants supporting electrolytic hydrogen production is protected under a tiered scheme, with electricity consumption data from special-grade green electricity hydrogen projects implementing the highest protection standards. All enterprises are required to establish full-life-cycle data ledgers, mandatorily use commercial encryption technology, and simultaneously implement the protection requirements for Classified Protection of Cybersecurity 2.0 and critical information infrastructure, in order to avert risks such as the leakage of monitoring data from coal chemical and hydrogen plants or cyber attacks on industrial control systems. (B) Restoring Industry Investment Confidence and Reducing Uncertainty in Market-Oriented Development By year-end 2025, a total of 627 wind- and solar-power water electrolysis hydrogen projects had been filed nationwide, with a planned total investment exceeding 860 billion yuan. However, only 148 projects actually commenced construction, yielding a comprehensive construction start rate of 23.6%. The core pain point of the industry's sluggish investment was the absence of a unified statistical scope, cost accounting method, and operational supervision standard for hydrogen energy, causing capital to remain on the long-term sidelines. This policy improves the investment environment in three aspects: The National Energy Administration concurrently released unified hydrogen energy data statistical specifications, eliminating the need for enterprises to build their own differentiated data systems and reducing per-project digital compliance costs by 30%-45%. It is also aligned with 19 current draft national hydrogen standards for public comment, achieving bidirectional unification of data standards with equipment, storage and transportation, and refueling technology standards, thereby boosting the export recognition of domestically produced electrolyzers and hydrogen storage vessels. Standardized data furnishes financial institutions with a unified basis for cost estimation and project revenue assessment, substantially diminishing investment risks arising from policy changes. Supporting policies simultaneously tightened industry assessment: In April 2026, the National Energy Administration clarified dynamic elimination mechanisms for nine major hydrogen pilot regions. Projects are assessed monthly on economic viability based on operational data after commissioning; those without a stable profit model for six consecutive months are directly withdrawn, marking the industry's complete departure from the era of extensive subsidies. (III) Enabling Data Interoperability Across the Industry Chain to Revitalize Idle Hydrogen Capacity The Guidelines categorize a secondary-level hydrogen data catalog, covering seven segments: planning, engineering construction, hydrogen production, tube trailer storage and transportation, hydrogen refueling, transportation/industrial consumption, and technological R&D, thereby establishing a framework for data interoperability across the entire industry chain. Benchmark practice: Rongcheng New Energy built China’s first system for capitalizing hydrogen entire industry chain data assets. Its hydrogen big data platform aggregates data from all dimensions including hydrogen production units, tube trailers, hydrogen refueling stations, heavy truck operations, and equipment maintenance, accumulating a total of 21.08 billion real-time operational data entries. Leveraging cross-segment data synergy, the enterprise reduced its overall hydrogen production, storage, and transportation costs by 12.7% and lowered equipment idle rate by 18%. Meanwhile, the policy mandates that enterprises holding important or core hydrogen data undergo at least one security risk assessment per year. Cross-border data transfers of hydrogen technology and capacity data, as well as cross-enterprise data flows, must be preceded by a specialized risk review. This not only controls cross-border data security but also delineates a clear compliance pathway for domestic enterprises’ hydrogen project cooperation outside China, facilitating the export of green hydrogen equipment and complete hydrogen production processes. III. Conclusion Elevating hydrogen to a first-level energy data category is a landmark policy move that incorporates hydrogen into the management of the fundamental energy system. On one hand, through three-tier data security controls, it fills the gaps in digital regulation of hydrogen and mitigates cybersecurity risks in the industry. On the other hand, it unifies industry standards for statistics, operations, and cost data, alleviating three core pain points: idle green hydrogen capacity, investment wait-and-see attitude, and fragmentation of the industry chain. Against the backdrop of intensifying global hydrogen competition and China's dual goals of energy supply security and carbon reduction, data standardization will accelerate the large-scale deployment of green hydrogen, the comprehensive layout of storage and transportation pipeline networks, and propel hydrogen from a niche demonstration track to a core emerging industry that supports China's energy transition and participates in global energy competition.

Silica: This week, the silica market price range remained stable. Rainy season in south-west China saw some silicon metal plant production resumptions, driving a slight recovery in just-in-time procurement of silica, but the increment was limited. Currently, spot silicon metal remained persistently sluggish, and most silicon metal plants had limited profits, leading to strong willingness to push for lower prices on the procurement side, which persistently suppressed the upside room for silica prices. On the supply side, with rigid support from costs such as mining and transportation, the downside room for silica prices was also limited. Therefore, subject to constraints from both supply and demand, silica prices are expected to remain stable with a consolidating trend in the short term. The high-grade silica mine-mouth price in Hubei remained at 310-350 yuan/mt, that in Inner Mongolia at 290-330 yuan/mt; the low-grade silica mine-mouth price in Inner Mongolia stood at 200-240 yuan/mt, and that in Yunnan at 150-180 yuan/mt. Silicon Coal: This week, the silicon coal market price remained stable. Regional quotations: Gansu silicon granulated coal at 1,120 yuan/mt, silicon mixed coal at 1,040 yuan/mt; Inner Mongolia and Ningxia silicon granulated coal at 1,340 yuan/mt; Xinjiang non-caking silicon coal at 855 yuan/mt; Xinjiang caking silicon coal at 1,400 yuan/mt. Supply side, driven by production resumptions at silicon metal plants in south-west China during the rainy season, the operating rate at some coal processing plants edged up slightly, but the increment was limited, and the overall supply ease of silicon coal did not improve significantly. Demand side, driven by the overall higher operating rate at silicon metal plants, procurement volume edged up. However, given the persistently sluggish market trend, procurement was still limited to just-in-time purchases in small batches, and raw material inventory was generally maintained at a monthly safe stockpiling level. Petroleum Coke: This week, trading in China's petroleum coke market was moderate. Price trends for products of different specifications continued to diverge, and the overall price center edged down slightly. In the Formosa Plastics petroleum coke market, the transaction atmosphere was subdued. Port spot prices remained generally stable, with mainstream transaction prices maintained at 1,300-1,350 yuan/mt. According to SMM monitoring, as of this Thursday, the price index for 4# petroleum coke in Shandong was quoted at 1,908.99 yuan/mt, down 7.57% from last Thursday. Supply side, affected by concentrated maintenance at some refineries, the coking unit operating rate in China remained persistently low in early July, further tightening domestic petroleum coke supply. Demand diverged significantly: high operating rates in aluminum electrolysis supported anode just-in-time demand, and carbon enterprises’ monthly restocking provided support for medium-sulphur petroleum coke; while negative electrode enterprises reduced costs and procured on a just-in-time basis, leaving low-sulphur petroleum coke with insufficient upward momentum. Overall, the petroleum coke market is expected to maintain a consolidating and divergent trend in the short term. Electrode Used in Silicon Production: This week, prices of electrode used in silicon production continued to run at low levels. Production resumptions at some silicon metal plants in south-west China during the rainy season drove a slight rebound in the overall operating rate of silicon metal plants. Just-in-time procurement of electrodes increased slightly, but the incremental space was limited. Additionally, on the supply side, producers had accumulated inventories from the previous period, leading to fierce competition in shipments. The overall market remained in oversupply, and prices lacked effective support. Therefore, the short-term market is expected to primarily operate at low levels. If you wish to obtain more detailed market information and dynamics, or have other information needs, please call 021-20707889.

The Board of Directors of VMS TMT Limited has approved a Scheme of Amalgamation to merge Aditya Ultra Steel Limited into the company, subject to necessary statutory and regulatory approvals. Both Gujarat-based manufacturers produce premium-quality thermo-mechanically treated (TMT) steel bars within the Kamdhenu brand ecosystem. This proposed amalgamation will combine their businesses into a single listed entity, forming a larger steel manufacturing enterprise with expanded scale and integrated operations.

On July 1, the Development and Reform Commission of Shaoxing City in Zhejiang Province announced the available capacity of distributed PV for Q2 2026 in Shaoxing. According to the announcement, the available capacity of distributed PV in seven areas of Shaoxing for Q2 2026 was 1,745.81 MW, with green warning levels in all areas except Shengzhou City and Xinchang County, which had yellow levels.

[SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary: EVA Inventory Pressure Significantly Eased, Cell Cost Support Further Reduced] Topcon full-size quotes continued their downward trend, with transaction ranges for 183N and 210R moving down to 0.27-0.28 yuan/W. Mainstream producers quoted mainly at 0.275 yuan/W, and some, to facilitate deals, were willing to negotiate actual orders down to 0.27 yuan/W. The market transaction center kept declining. At this stage, producers' inventory backlogs and shipment pressures have not eased, downstream module procurement volume has not seen a significant release, and buyers' push for lower prices is strong, making it more difficult to secure new orders. Solar cell plants can only passively follow the market and sell at reduced margins to move shipments. Short-term futures still have room for further decline.

★ Macro ★ 01 ★★ [Oil Prices May Return to the 7-Yuan Era] According to China's refined oil product price adjustment cycle, the 13th adjustment window of the year will open at 24:00 on July 3, with only 3 statistical working days remaining and 70% of the current pricing cycle completed. As reported by Dazhong Daily, the decline in oil prices has continued to widen during this cycle, deepening for six consecutive days from an initial drop of just over 0.4 yuan to the current level exceeding 0.65 yuan. The trend of a substantial cut appears largely irreversible, and this Friday evening may mark the year's first triple consecutive decline in oil prices, as well as the fourth price reduction in 2024. As of the calculation data from the 7th working day, estimated figures show a cut of 820 yuan/mt for gasoline and 790 yuan/mt for diesel. Converted to retail terminal unit prices, estimates show a drop of 0.66 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 0.7 yuan per liter for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.68 yuan per liter for 0# diesel. The two previous adjustments in June had already achieved a double consecutive decline, with cumulative cuts of 1,040 yuan/mt and 1,000 yuan/mt for gasoline and diesel respectively, equivalent to a cumulative price drop of between 0.84 and 0.89 yuan per liter. The price of 92-octane gasoline has fallen below 8 yuan, returning to the 7-yuan range. Once this round of cuts takes effect, the national average price for 95-octane gasoline may fall below 8 yuan, re-entering the 7-yuan era. 02 ★★ [US and Iranian Officials to Hold Indirect Talks in Doha] Sources stated on July 1 that officials from the US and Iran will hold indirect talks in the Qatari capital, Doha, later that day. ★ Industry and Downstream ★ 01 ★★ [Shenzhen Real Estate Market Hits New High for June Transactions in Nearly Six Years] According to data released today by the Shenzhen Centaline Research Center, first-hand and second-hand residential transactions in Shenzhen totaled 8,878 units in June, down 11.9% MoM yet up 14.2% YoY. The combined transaction volume was the highest for the same period since 2021. Specifically, online registrations for new housing (pre-sale and existing) amounted to 3,785 units, a decrease of 16.7% MoM but an increase of 15.6% YoY, while second-hand housing transfers reached 5,093 units, down 8% MoM but up 13.1% YoY. Monitoring data indicates that both new home pre-sales and second-hand home transactions in Shenzhen for the month reached record highs for the same period over the past six years, marking the best June performance for the property market in nearly six years. 02 ★★ [China-Made Air Conditioners See Export Orders Surge from Europe] Data shows that only about 20% of European households have air conditioning installed. Due to the concentrated surge in European demand for cooling, export orders for Chinese-made air conditioners have continued to grow. Air conditioning enterprises are working overtime to produce and fulfill these export orders. At an enterprise's air conditioner production workshop in Jiangmen, Guangdong, workers are rushing to assemble air conditioner parts. Since March this year, the enterprise’s export orders to the European market saw a sharp increase, with exports in May exceeding 800,000 units, up 20.3% YoY. The person in charge told the reporter that many residential buildings in Europe were built long ago, building facades are subject to strict controls, and installation procedures for traditional split air conditioners are complicated with high approval thresholds. Mobile air conditioners produced by Chinese enterprises, which require no outdoor unit and no wall drilling, precisely match the usage scenarios of local homes, apartments, and shops. An air conditioner enterprise’s sales in the French market in June surged over 100% YoY, while its Italian market sales rose 30% YoY in June. 03 ★★ [Chongqing: Promoting Housing "Trade-in" and Optimizing Support Policies such as "Selling Smaller to Buy Larger" and "Transfer with Mortgage"] The Chongqing Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Committee is publicly soliciting opinions on the "Chongqing Urban Housing High-Quality Development 15th Five-Year Plan (Draft for Comments)". It proposes to promote a virtuous cycle in the new and second-hand housing markets, advance housing "trade-in", optimize support policies such as "selling smaller to buy larger" and "transfer with mortgage", reduce transaction costs, and foster synergy between the new and second-hand housing markets. Based on the "Yuyue Anju" system, fully implement online contract signing services for existing homes, establish and improve mechanisms for supervision of existing home transaction funds, listing and release of property listings, and price monitoring; simplify the transaction process, strengthen real estate registration information sharing, automatically verify property information, and promote "one-stop acceptance" and full online processing of transaction services. 04 ★★ [TISCO Steel Science & Technology Company Successfully Trials T1100S-Grade Ultra-High-Strength Carbon Fiber in a Single Attempt] According to China Baowu, recently, the TISCO Steel Science & Technology Company under China Baowu successfully trial-produced T1100S-grade ultra-high-strength carbon fiber in a single attempt, with excellent performance across all key indicators, reaching domestic leading and international advanced levels. Carbon fiber is a key strategic material supporting aerospace and high-end equipment manufacturing. From aircraft structural components to rocket casings, breakthroughs in lightweight materials directly determine the performance ceiling of equipment. The T1100S grade, meanwhile, is a top-tier high-modulus, ultra-high-strength carbon fiber in the industry, with extremely high technical barriers, and has long been a key focus of China’s new material breakthroughs. 05 ★★ [In H1, New Home Prices in 100 Chinese Cities Edge Up Cumulatively, While Second-Hand Home Prices Fall] In the first half of this year, new home prices in 100 Chinese cities continued a structural uptrend. In June, the average new home price in the 100 cities was 17,184 yuan per m², up 0.16% MoM and up 2% YoY. Second-hand home prices in the 100 cities fell cumulatively. In June, the average second-hand home price in the 100 cities was 12,639 yuan per m², down 0.42% MoM and down 7.68% YoY. Core cities were the first to show positive signals: Shenzhen’s second-hand home prices turned to a month-on-month increase in June, while Shanghai’s second-hand home prices rose MoM for four consecutive months. ★Other Hot Topics★ ⭕ [China Fully Enters Main Flooding Season Today] Starting July 1, China fully entered the main flooding season. According to forecasts and comprehensive assessments, during the main flooding season (July–August), both northern and southern China will see areas of heavy rainfall, with the north facing relatively severe flooding, more frequent localized extreme rainstorms and floods, and stronger typhoons moving northward to affect inland areas. Meanwhile, parts of the southwest and northwest may experience periodic droughts due to high temperatures and low rainfall. The flood control and drought relief situation is severe and complex. On the morning of July 1, the Ministry of Water Resources organized a rolling consultation to analyze and assess the current and near-term development of rainfall, water conditions, flooding, and drought, and deployed targeted key preventive measures accordingly. Based on the 24-hour rainfall forecast, the ministry issued province-specific targeted early warnings to 14 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), including Liaoning, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Guangxi, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Gansu, Qinghai, and Xinjiang. These warnings detailed lists of counties (cities and districts) under heavy rainfall coverage, reservoir lists, and flash flood disaster risk areas and locations, and reminded relevant parties to ensure safe reservoir operation during flooding, and to guard against small and medium river floods and flash flood disasters. ⭕ [Domestic Route Fuel Surcharges to Be Sharply Cut from July 5] 9 Air issued a notice today stating that effective July 5, 2026 (ticket issuance date), domestic route fuel surcharges will be reduced. For routes over 800 kilometers, each passenger will be charged 100 yuan, and for routes of 800 kilometers or less, each passenger will be charged 50 yuan, representing cuts of 50 yuan and 30 yuan, respectively, from the previous levels. In April and May this year, domestic fuel surcharges were raised significantly for consecutive months. Starting June 5, they were reduced by 20 yuan and 10 yuan for the two categories. With the decline in fuel prices, the fuel surcharge reduction in July is much larger. ⭕ ["US ADP Employment Data" Lower Than Expected] US ADP employment for June was 98,000, the lowest increase since March, below the expected 118,000. The prior reading was 122,000. *This report is an original work and/or compilation produced exclusively by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"). SMM legally holds the copyright and is protected by the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China and other applicable laws and international treaties. No reproduction, modification, sale, transfer, display, translation, compilation, dissemination, or any other form of disclosure of the above content to third parties or licensing thereof is permitted without written authorization. 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