[Slab] Today, HRC export prices fell by USD 1/tonne day-on-day, with HRC transaction prices at USD 492–501/tonne. Other flat steel prices were also lowered by USD 1–2/tonne. Although domestic export offers continued to decline, traders said overseas demand has not shown any clear recovery. [Rebar] Today, rebar export FOB prices edged down by USD 1/tonne. Market participants reported that enquiries remained relatively muted, with no significant improvement in transactions. Participants continued to adopt a wait-and-see stance. [Billet] Today, export billet offers remained weak but stable, currently quoted at USD 465–468/tonne. Market feedback indicated that Southeast Asia is currently in its traditional demand off-season, while buyers in the Middle East largely remained on the sidelines. Overseas customers showed limited willingness to place orders, and domestic export offers still lacked a clear competitive advantage, leaving transactions generally moderate.

SMM News Flash: [Rebar] Today, export FOB prices for rebar rose slightly by about USD 2/tonne. According to market traders, inquiry activity was relatively decent, but actual transactions remained average. Some participants also noted that long steel demand in South America has been relatively stable recently, while demand in the Middle East remains weak. Regarding the US–Iran peace agreement, there has been no significant change in order flow so far, and overall market sentiment remains cautious and wait-and-see. [Billet] Today, export billet offers increased slightly by around USD 2/tonne, with prices at approximately USD 473–476/tonne FOB. Market feedback indicates that countries such as Indonesia and India are actively exporting billets, leading to intensified competition. However, domestic export price advantages are not obvious, as rising production costs are limiting steel mills’ willingness to discount, while traders are also more cautious in taking short positions. As a result, overall transaction activity remained moderate. [HRC] Today, export prices for flat steel products rose by USD 2/tonne day-on-day. Hot-rolled coil transaction prices were in the range of USD 497–506/tonne. Market inquiry activity was moderate, with no significant release of concluded deals. Recently, there have been some new inquiries for medium and heavy plate in the Middle East, with a portion of them resulting in transactions. [India] Ship-breaking scrap prices in the Alang (Gujarat) market increased by around 3 USD/tonne, with HMS (80:20) assessed at approximately 373 USD/tonne EXW. Semi-finished steel prices remained broadly stable, while finished steel saw a mild correction in the previous trading session. Market sentiment in Alang stayed subdued, as vessel arrivals remained at historically low levels. Strong freight economics continued to incentivize shipowners to extend the operating life of older vessels, limiting scrap inflows. In the near term, Alang scrap prices are expected to remain supported but constrained by tight supply conditions, with further movement largely dependent on vessel arrivals and downstream steel demand. [Thailand] Galvanizing quotes in the Thai market remained stable in the short term, with import offers still around 710 USD/tonne; however, for large-volume firm orders, the market could consider offering a discount of 5-10 USD/tonne. Wire rod quotes were also relatively stable, but some traders had to push up prices by 20 USD/tonne to 570 USD/tonne due to rising costs. In terms of local market transactions, downstream end-use demand was weak, and actual deals mostly shifted to a "negotiate deal by deal" model. It is expected that in the short term, Thai wire rod and galvanizing prices will hover at highs. Whether prices can subsequently stabilize on a solid footing will mainly depend on the release of downstream firm orders and the final bargaining and concession room offered by sellers under shipment pressure. [South Korea] Facing the approaching rainy season, South Korean builders are racing against time to push forward the final “intensive rush to meet deadlines” for foundation and main structure works, and the upward momentum of finished steel prices has slowed significantly. Today, POSCO’s two core steelworks (Pohang and Gwangyang) simultaneously raised the purchase price of high-quality pig iron scraps/premium steel scrap by 15,000 won/tonne (approximately 9.93 USD/tonne), and medium and light scrap by 10,000 won/tonne (approximately 6.62 USD/tonne), mainly to prevent domestic supply from being snapped up by other EAF steel mills before the off-season arrives. POSCO had no choice but to raise buying prices against the trend to “lock in” domestic spot cargo flows.

China Export Market : [Steel Billet] Today, export offers for square billet edged down by 1 USD/tonne to 470-473 USD/tonne. According to market feedback, port departure inspections for steel products involved relatively little steel billet, so the impact on its exports was relatively small. However, the current economic conditions in markets outside China were not very favorable, the international situation was unstable, demand was relatively average, and steel billet export deals showed mediocre performance. [Rebar] Today, rebar export FOB prices edged down by 1 USD/tonne. Market inquiries showed mediocre performance, and no actual deals were concluded yet. According to feedback from some traders, inspections at northern ports have tightened recently, but the impact on rebar exports appeared relatively small at present. In addition, some market participants said that China’s export prices currently had no obvious advantage, and wait-and-see sentiment was strong.

2025 Global Steel Mill Profitability Divergence In 2025, steel mill profitability diverged across different global regions. North American market, US-based Cleveland-Cliffs posted a net loss of $1.478 billion in 2025, with losses widening YoY; US-based Nucor reported net profit of $1.74 billion in 2025, down 13.58% YoY. South American market, Brazil's Gerdau S.A. posted net profit of $248 million in 2025, down 70.69% YoY. European market, Luxembourg-based ArcelorMittal reported net profit of $3.15 billion in 2025, up 135.4% YoY; Austria's voestalpine GROUP posted net profit of $109 million in 2025, up 178.01% YoY. Asian market, South Korea's Hyundai Steel reported net profit of approximately $680,000 in 2025, down 88.89% YoY; South Korea's POSCO Steel posted net profit of $776 million in 2025, up 26.7% YoY; China's Valin reported net profit of approximately $383 million in 2025, up 28.49% YoY. Amid Declining Steel Prices Across Multiple Global Regions, Chinese Steel Mill Profits Performed Relatively Well In 2025, steel prices declined across most global regions. Taking hot-rolled coil as an example, Black Sea export FOB prices fell 14% YoY, Turkish export FOB prices fell 11% YoY, export FOB prices from China, Japan, and India as well as EU import CFR prices fell 9% YoY, Southeast Asian import CFR prices fell 7%, while US import CFR prices rose 8%. A comparison of 2025 revenue and net profitability among selected global steelmakers revealed that among those with higher revenue (>$10 billion), Chinese steelmakers slightly outperformed their ex-China counterparts in net profit.

The core logic of the South American steel market is that end-user demand drives everything. Consumption demand is the starting point, filled jointly by local production and imports; imports act as a regulating valve rather than a driving force.

China Steel Market: [Sheets & plates] HRC export prices today were quoted at $492-496/mt, up $2-3/mt WoW, while other sheets & plates were up $1-4/mt WoW. Recent inquiry activity for sheets & plates was moderate, and Middle Eastern Gulf countries also began requesting FOB prices. Semi-finished products side, some steel mills reported that due to delayed shipping schedules combined with rising prices, recent slab transaction performance was lackluster. [Steel Billet] Billet export FOB prices were quoted at $472-475/mt, with high-end prices at $478/mt. Shipments to the Middle East with dual-certification requirements were quoted at $490-495/mt. Prices rose relatively quickly recently, and inquiry activity and actual transaction levels fell short of those seen at the beginning of the month. [Rebar] Rebar export FOB prices were quoted at $480-485/mt, flat from yesterday. Some steel mills reported that foreign-standard rebar quotes were on the stronger side, with high-priced resources difficult to transact. International Steel Market: [India] HRC export offers to the EU increased to ~$705/t CFR, mainly due to higher freight costs. Logistics disruptions (Red Sea, Suez, Hormuz) forced rerouting via the Cape, extending transit times and reducing competitiveness, while no deals were concluded as buyers remained cautious. Market sentiment is weak to cautious, with stalled Middle East trade and pressure from high freight costs and unclear demand. [UAE] Emirates Steel, a UAE-based steel company, has maintained the list price of 12-32mm diameter rebar for May delivery in the domestic market at 2,720.87 UAE dirhams per ton (USD 741) ex-works, the same as in April. [EU] A steel mill in Germany has announced that its rebar price will increase by $60 per ton to $835 per ton; a steel mill in Italy has indicated that the increase may exceed $60 per ton, with the latest price expected to exceed $860 per ton. In terms of driving factors, steel mills generally face rising energy costs, while tightened EU import protection (including CBAM costs and new measures effective from July) has strengthened the pricing power of European domestic steel mills. Although there are still large inventories of imported products in some markets, which may suppress short-term orders, under the combined cost pressure and policy support, the significant price increase is expected to be accepted by the market by mid-May.

According to an SMM survey, steel semi-finished product export orders have recently surged, with slab export orders seeing particularly significant growth. SMM believes two major factors contributed to this round of growth: "Demand" Provides the Necessary Condition for the Surge in Semi-Finished Product Export Orders On one hand, benefiting from the spillover effect of export demand caused by the US-Iran conflict, infrastructure and manufacturing in Southeast Asia have grown rapidly. However, the region only has rolling capacity and lacks steelmaking capacity, necessitating large imports of steel billet. According to data compiled by SMM, Southeast Asia imported approximately 2.31 million mt of steel from the Middle East in 2025, of which a staggering 97% was semi-finished steel billet. Therefore, when passage through the Strait of Hormuz was restricted, the Southeast Asian market was instantly exposed to a rigid shortfall of over 2 million mt. For detailed analysis, please refer to the article "Sudden Shift in Middle East Situation Triggers 'Mismatch,' China Accelerates to Fill Approximately 2.3 Million mt Supply Vacuum in Southeast Asia." The existence of this gap provides an excellent window for China's semi-finished product exports. "Price Advantage" Provides the Sufficient Condition for the Surge in Semi-Finished Product Export Orders On the other hand, price increases outside China far exceeded those in China. During this period, the FOB price of Dexin slabs in Indonesia rose from $470/mt to $540/mt, an increase of 14.89%, while the FOB price of slabs in China rose from $455/mt to $480/mt, an increase of only 5.49%. The huge price difference made buyers outside China particularly favour semi-finished products from China. SMM surveyed some recent slab transaction details from domestic sellers, as shown in the table below. Survey Records: Enterprise A: At the current price, they are willing to take slab orders, but orders have already been booked through August, with an estimated volume of 80,000 mt per month. Enterprise B: They started taking slab orders from April. They take orders when the price is right. The current price is only 20-30 yuan/mt lower than HRC. Enterprise C: They can only accept exporting slabs at HRC prices now. If overseas buyers don't want them, then forget it. Enterprise D: They haven't been in contact with new slab orders recently. Their last order was in March. However, if there is subsequent demand, they may have new resources available for export by June. Enterprise E: Their orders were all taken earlier. Previously, they were selling at over 100 yuan below HRC, but now the quoted price is only a few dozen yuan below HRC. However, transactions have clearly slowed down. The current ex-factory price is approximately 3,120. The surge in demand has driven prices higher. As shown in the chart below, normally the price spread between slabs and HRC stays around $20-30, which aligns with normal rolling costs. However, since April, this spread has narrowed to around $10, and has recently further narrowed to single digits. This is mainly because as steel mills' shipping schedules have gradually been pushed back, their willingness to hold prices firm has also strengthened. Some steel mills are even exporting slabs at prices equivalent to domestic HRC trade prices, which provides them with significant export motivation. Chart 1 - SMM China HRC & Slab Export FOB Price Trend SMM Expects Slab Exports to Rise Significantly, April-August In January-February this year, total steel billet exports were 1.7746 million mt, of which slabs accounted for 232,600 mt, square billets for 1.5196 million mt, and slabs made up 13.11%. Chart 2 - China Steel Billet Exports by Product, January-February 2026 Based on the survey, the increase in slab export orders was more of a March-April phenomenon. Considering the time interval from order placement to shipping schedule, SMM expects slab exports to show a relatively significant upward trend from April to August. Surge in Slab Orders May Improve HRC Fundamentals In April, the daily average production schedule for commercial HR products at 39 mills was 448,300 mt, up 8.5% MoM from actual daily average production. The daily average production schedule for commercial HR products at 54 steel mills was 581,100 mt, up 9.2% MoM from actual daily average production. HR supply pressure increased MoM, but the peak season performance of China's manufacturing sector during the "Golden March, Silver April" period was overall satisfactory. According to SMM data, as of April 9, total HRC inventory was 6.6556 million mt, down 111,100 mt WoW. Destocking is expected to maintain a healthy pace going forward. However, when the spot-futures price spread was at suitable levels before the Chinese New Year, traders engaged in futures-spot arbitrage were particularly active in North China and other regions, accelerating social inventory accumulation. Current social inventory is up 34.93% YoY. If steel mills' semi-finished product export orders perform well, this could create opportunities for subsequent reductions in commercial product supply, while also providing support for current prices.

India’s steel market in 2026 is expected to remain balanced, with demand slightly outpacing supply. Domestic consumption will absorb most output, while imports decline overall and exports increase modestly as a balancing mechanism. Supported by strong growth and infrastructure investment, India is transitioning toward a demand-led steel market with solid long-term potential.

November 17 — The average spot price of EMM in major producing areas was 13,900–14,100 yuan/mt, while the average export FOB price was $2,070–2,100/mt...

November 10 - The average spot price of EMM in the main producing areas was 13,900-14,100 yuan/mt, while the average export FOB price was $2,070-2,100/mt...