On Feb 24, 2026, China placed 20 Japanese firms, including Subaru, on an export control watchlist for unverifiable end-use of dual-use items. This signals tighter controls on critical minerals and tech amid geopolitical and supply chain shifts. The analysis examines the firms' supply chain roles and the long-term industrial implications.

On February 24, 2026, China's Ministry of Commerce issued Announcement No. 12 of 2026, adding 20 Japanese entities, including Subaru Corporation, to the export control "watch list" on the grounds of "inability to verify the end-users and end-uses of dual-use items." This move marks the first time since January 2026 that China has explicitly implemented such list-based management measures targeting Japanese enterprises, signaling a shift toward more precise, systematic, and in-depth development of export controls in the fields of critical minerals and high-tech materials. This article will conduct an in-depth analysis of the core backgrounds of these 20 enterprises, reveal their deep-seated connections with supply chains of critical materials such as rare earths, and explore the potential impact of this measure on the future global industrial landscape.

The General Administration of Customs has issued an announcement regarding customs inquiries related to the export control of dual-use items. If the exporter fails to present the license issued by the national export control authority to the customs, and the customs has evidence indicating that the exported goods may fall within the scope of export control, the customs shall raise an inquiry to the exporter and issue a "Notice of Customs Inquiry on Export Control of Dual-Use Items". During the period of identification or inquiry, the customs shall not release the relevant exported goods. The original text is as follows: Announcement No. 123 of 2025 of the General Administration of Customs (Announcement on Matters Related to Customs Inquiries on Export Control of Dual-Use Items) To further optimize the customs inquiry process for export control of dual-use items, in accordance with the provisions of the Customs Law of the People's Republic of China, the Export Control Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Export Control of Dual-Use Items, the following matters are hereby announced: 1. If the exporter fails to present the license issued by the national export control authority to the customs, and the customs has evidence indicating that the exported goods may fall within the scope of export control, the customs shall raise an inquiry to the exporter and issue a "Notice of Customs Inquiry on Export Control of Dual-Use Items" (Attachment 1). 2. The exporter shall submit the following materials as required within 7 working days after receiving the "Notice of Customs Inquiry on Export Control of Dual-Use Items". The materials shall be stamped with the official seal, and the exporter shall be responsible for their authenticity: (1) Paper customs declaration form; (2) Export goods contract; (3) Explanation (stating the performance indicators, main uses of the goods, and reasons for believing that they do not fall within the scope of export control); (4) Inspection and detection reports and other relevant technical materials; (5) Other materials required by the customs according to regulatory needs. If the materials are in a foreign language, a Chinese translation shall also be provided. 3. After receiving the materials submitted by the exporter, the customs shall make a determination or propose to organize an identification in accordance with the law, and handle the matter in accordance with the law based on the following circumstances, and issue a "Notice of Results of Customs Inquiry/Organized Identification on Export Control of Dual-Use Items" (Attachment 2). (1) If it is determined that a license for dual-use items is not required, the enterprise shall be notified to proceed with subsequent procedures. (2) If it is determined that a license for dual-use items is required, the exported goods shall not be released and shall be handled in accordance with the regulations. (3) If it is impossible to determine whether the goods are dual-use items, an application for identification shall be submitted to the national export control authority in accordance with the law, and the matter shall be handled in accordance with the identification conclusion. 4. During the period of identification or challenge, the customs will not release the relevant exported goods. This announcement is hereby made. Annexes: 1. Customs Challenge Notification for Export Control of Dual-Use Items.docx 2. Notification of Organizational Identification Results for Customs Challenge in Export Control of Dual-Use Items/Notification of Organizational Identification Results.docx General Administration of Customs June 16, 2025 Download link for the announcement text: Announcement of the General Administration of Customs on Matters Related to Customs Challenges in Export Control of Dual-Use Items.doc Announcement of the General Administration of Customs on Matters Related to Customs Challenges in Export Control of Dual-Use Items.pdf Click to view the original link: 》Announcement No. 123 of the General Administration of Customs in 2025 (Announcement on Matters Related to Customs Challenges in Export Control of Dual-Use Items)

On June 12, at the 2025 SMM (13th) Minor Metal Industry Conference - Main Forum, hosted by Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. and SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., Zhao Wuzhuang, former Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, shared the topic of "Export Controls on Dual-Use Items" with the attendees. He stated that in the past two years, the Chinese government, in accordance with international legal documents such as the conventions on the prohibition of nuclear proliferation and weapons of mass destruction, as well as the management catalog of dual-use items established by these conventions, has introduced measures to strengthen export controls on rare and scattered metals such as indium, germanium, and gallium. As of now, China has implemented export controls on 15 nonferrous metals classified as dual-use items, including four rare and scattered metals (indium, gallium, germanium, and tellurium), four rare metals (tungsten, molybdenum, antimony, and bismuth), and seven rare earth metals (samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium).

A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce answered questions from reporters regarding the special campaign to combat the smuggling and export of strategic minerals. Question: We have noticed that the Office of the National Export Control Coordination Mechanism recently deployed a special campaign to combat the smuggling and export of strategic minerals. What considerations were behind this special campaign? What other work will be carried out? Answer: Strengthening export controls on strategic mineral resources is crucial to national security and development interests. Since the implementation of export controls on some strategic minerals, we have discovered that some overseas entities have colluded with domestic lawbreakers in an attempt to evade export control measures through smuggling and other means. To curb the momentum of smuggling and other activities, the Office of the National Export Control Coordination Mechanism held an on-site meeting in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, on May 9, focusing on combating the smuggling of strategic minerals, and made special arrangements. A series of actions will also be organized in the near future. The on-site meeting further clarified the task divisions among the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of State Security, the General Administration of Customs, the State Post Bureau, and other departments in this special campaign. It required relevant departments to strengthen law enforcement collaboration, severely crack down on the smuggling and export of strategic minerals, form a high-pressure situation of "joint efforts and shared responsibilities," adopt practical and effective measures, and resolutely prevent the illegal outflow of strategic minerals. Relevant departments immediately took action, swiftly launching cross-departmental investigations and case consultations targeting illegal and irregular activities that attempt to evade export controls, such as false declarations, concealment, smuggling through concealment, and transshipment via a "third country," which have recently emerged in the field of strategic minerals. They intensified port inspections and crackdown efforts, delved deep into uncovering illegal entities and smuggling networks behind the scenes, investigated and handled illegal cases strictly and promptly, continuously enhanced the effectiveness of export control law enforcement, and effectively safeguarded national security and development interests.

SMM, May 12: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals all rose. SHFE nickel increased by 2%, SHFE aluminum by 1.66%, SHFE lead by 1.22%, SHFE zinc by 1.08%, while SHFE copper and SHFE tin both rose by less than 1%. The main alumina contract rose by 0.67%. In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract rose by 0.53%, the main polysilicon contract by 2.49%, and the main silicon metal contract by 0.24%. The main European container shipping contract surged, ultimately closing at the daily limit of 16%. The ferrous metals series collectively rose, with rebar and HRC increasing by 1.52% and 1.51%, respectively. Iron ore rose by 3.16%, and HRC by 1.51%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coke rose by 0.75%, and coking coal by 0.68%. In the overseas market, as of 15:31, LME base metals all rose. LME lead increased by 0.86%, LME zinc by 1.75%, LME aluminum by 1.68%, LME copper by 1.23%, LME tin by 0.99%, and LME nickel by 0.51%. In the precious metals sector, as of 15:31, COMEX gold fell by 2.81%, and COMEX silver by 0.21%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell by 2.01%, and SHFE silver rose by 1.02%. Market conditions as of 15:31 today 》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic Aspect: [Ministry of Commerce: Crack Down on Smuggling and Export of Strategic Minerals, Increase Inspection and Enforcement Efforts at Ports] A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce responded to questions from reporters regarding the special campaign to crack down on the smuggling and export of strategic minerals. Question: We have noticed that the National Export Control Coordination Mechanism Office recently deployed a special campaign to crack down on the smuggling and export of strategic minerals. What considerations are behind this campaign? What other work will be carried out? Answer: Strengthening export controls on strategic mineral resources is crucial for national security and development interests. Since implementing export controls on some strategic minerals, we have discovered that some foreign entities have colluded with domestic lawbreakers to evade export control measures through smuggling and other means. To curb smuggling and other trends, the National Export Control Coordination Mechanism Office held an on-site meeting in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, on May 9, focusing on cracking down on the smuggling of strategic minerals, and made special arrangements. A series of actions will also be organized in the near future. The on-site meeting further clarified the task divisions among the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of State Security, the General Administration of Customs, the State Post Bureau, and other departments in this special campaign. It required relevant departments to strengthen law enforcement collaboration, severely crack down on the smuggling and export of strategic minerals, form a high-pressure situation of "joint management and control," take practical and effective measures, and resolutely prevent the illegal outflow of strategic minerals.Relevant departments immediately took action to swiftly launch cross-departmental investigations and case consultations targeting recent illegal and irregular activities in the strategic minerals sector aimed at evading export controls, such as false declarations, concealment, smuggling through concealment, and transshipment via "third countries." They intensified inspection and enforcement efforts at ports, delved deep into uncovering illegal entities and smuggling networks operating behind the scenes, and rigorously and swiftly investigated and handled illegal cases. This ongoing effort aims to continuously enhance the effectiveness of export control law enforcement and effectively safeguard national security and development interests. (Cailian Press) [The Meeting on Strengthening the Whole-Chain Management and Control of Strategic Minerals Exports was Held] To thoroughly implement the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, on May 12, 2025, the Office of the National Export Control Coordination Mechanism organized the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of State Security, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Transport, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, the General Administration of Customs, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the State Post Bureau, and local authorities from strategic minerals-rich provinces such as Inner Mongolia, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, and Yunnan to convene the Meeting on Strengthening the Whole-Chain Management and Control of Strategic Minerals Exports in Changsha City, Hunan Province. ► The central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market on May 12 was 1 US dollar to 7.2066 yuan. US dollar: As of 15:31, the US dollar index rose by 1.08% to 101.49. The release of the joint statement on the China-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks has alleviated market concerns about tariffs. The spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce made remarks on the joint statement. This round of high-level economic and trade talks between China and the US has achieved substantive progress, significantly reducing bilateral tariff levels. The US has removed a total of 91% of the tariff hikes, and China has correspondingly removed 91% of the retaliatory tariffs. The US has suspended the implementation of 24% of the "reciprocal tariffs," and China has also correspondingly suspended the implementation of 24% of the retaliatory tariffs. Beth Hammack, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stated on Friday that the US Fed needs more time to observe the economy's response to US tariffs and other policies before finding the right countermeasures, noting that much of the government's agenda remains unclear. Traders are closely watching the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be released on Tuesday for new signals regarding the monetary policy outlook of the Federal Reserve (Fed). Macro: [Joint Statement on the China-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks] ① Both sides committed to taking a series of measures before May 14, 2025, including revising and removing tariffs imposed on each other's goods, as well as suspending or removing non-tariff retaliatory measures.② Both sides will establish a mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade relations, and may hold discussions in China, the US, or a third country. (Xinhua News Agency) 》Click for details Also worth monitoring: Data to be released today include China's M2 money supply YoY for April, China's total social financing (TSF) year-to-date for April, China's new RMB loans year-to-date for April, changes in Canada's employment for April, Canada's unemployment rate for April, etc. Also note the speech by Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler; the National Energy Administration's release of nationwide electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month is also worth monitoring. Crude oil: As of 15:31, crude oil futures rose across the board, with WTI up 2.82% and Brent up 2.61%. Oil prices rose as easing global trade tensions boosted market sentiment. Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitsu Securities, said that easing trade tensions supported market confidence, but OPEC's plans to increase production limited gains. Tazawa was referring to the plan by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (collectively known as OPEC+) to accelerate production increases in May and June, which will add more crude oil to the market. However, surveys showed that OPEC's oil production fell in April. (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review ► Copper inventories in major regions across China increased slightly by 3,000 mt over the weekend [SMM Weekly Data] ► Poor price ratios in the morning session led to sluggish offers and thin trading activity [SMM Yangshan Spot Copper] ► Increased production cuts in secondary lead led to a slight decline in social inventory of zinc ingots [SMM Social Inventory of Zinc Ingots] ► SMM's social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions increased by 2,200 mt [SMM Data] ► [SMM Daily Review of Nickel Sulphate] On May 12, nickel sulphate prices held steady ► [SMM Iron Ore Shipping Data] Global shipments continued to decline slightly, while port arrivals increased slightly ► [SMM Steel Shipping] China's total steel exports fell 18% MoM last week ► [SMM Coking Coal Shipping] Total coal arrivals at SMM ports reached 7.101 million mt ► Progress made in China-US economic and trade talks; precious metal prices corrected in the morning session, with overall spot trading remaining sluggish [SMM Daily Review]

In response to the US government's unilateral decision on April 8 to increase tariffs on Chinese exports to the US from 34% to 84%, the Chinese government swiftly took resolute countermeasures, including tariff retaliation, WTO litigation, and sanctions on the entity list. Strong Countermeasures! China Raises Tariffs on the US to 84% The Tariff Commission of the State Council issued an announcement today, stating that starting from 12:01 PM on April 10, the additional tariff rates on all imported goods originating from the US, as stipulated in the "Announcement of the Tariff Commission of the State Council on Imposing Additional Tariffs on Imported Goods Originating from the US" (Announcement No. 4 of 2025), will be increased from 34% to 84%. China Files Additional WTO Complaint Against US Escalation of Tariffs on China A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce announced today that China has filed a complaint with the WTO Dispute Settlement Mechanism against the latest US tariff measures. The US tariff measures severely violate WTO rules, and the additional 50% tariff is a further mistake, highlighting the unilateral and bullying nature of the US measures. China will firmly defend its legitimate rights and interests in accordance with WTO rules and resolutely uphold the multilateral trading system and international economic and trade order. Ministry of Commerce Adds 12 US Entities to Export Control List In accordance with the "Export Control Law of the People's Republic of China" and the "Regulations on the Export Control of Dual-Use Items of the People's Republic of China," and to safeguard national security and interests and fulfill international non-proliferation obligations, the Ministry of Commerce has decided to add 12 US entities, including American Photonics, to the export control list and take the following measures: 1. Prohibit the export of dual-use items to the aforementioned 12 US entities; ongoing export activities must be immediately halted. 2. In special circumstances where exports are indeed necessary, the export operator must apply to the Ministry of Commerce. This announcement will take effect from 12:01 PM on April 10, 2025. Export Control List (April 9, 2025) 1. American Photonics 2. Novotech, Inc. 3. Echodyne 4. Marvin Engineering Company, Inc. 5. Exovera 6. Teledyne Brown Engineering, Inc. 7. BRINC Drones, Inc. 8. SYNEXXUS, Inc. 9. Firestorm Labs, Inc. 10. Kratos Unmanned Aerial Systems, Inc. 11. Domo Tactical Communications 12. Insitu, Inc. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce stated that to safeguard national security and interests and fulfill international non-proliferation obligations, in accordance with the "Export Control Law of the People's Republic of China" and the "Regulations on the Export Control of Dual-Use Items of the People's Republic of China," the Ministry of Commerce has issued an announcement to add 12 US entities to the export control list and prohibit the export of dual-use items to them. These entities have engaged in activities that may harm China's national security and interests, and no export operator may violate the above regulations. Ministry of Commerce Adds 6 US Entities Involved in Arms Sales to Taiwan to the Unreliable Entity List To safeguard national sovereignty, security, and development interests, in accordance with the "Foreign Trade Law of the People's Republic of China," the "National Security Law of the People's Republic of China," the "Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law of the People's Republic of China," and other relevant laws, the Unreliable Entity List Working Mechanism, based on Articles 2, 8, and 10 of the "Unreliable Entity List Provisions," has decided to add Shield AI, Inc., Sierra Nevada Corporation, Cyberlux Corporation, Edge Autonomy Operations LLC, Group W, and Hudson Technologies Co. to the Unreliable Entity List and take the following measures: 1. Prohibit the aforementioned entities from engaging in import and export activities related to China; 2. Prohibit the aforementioned entities from making new investments in China. Matters not covered in this announcement shall be handled in accordance with the "Unreliable Entity List Provisions." This announcement will take effect from 12:01 PM on April 10, 2025. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce stated that in recent years, Shield AI, Inc., Sierra Nevada Corporation, and four other companies have disregarded China's strong opposition, either participating in arms sales to Taiwan or engaging in so-called military-technical cooperation with Taiwan, seriously damaging China's national sovereignty, security, and development interests. In accordance with the "Foreign Trade Law of the People's Republic of China," the "National Security Law of the People's Republic of China," the "Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law of the People's Republic of China," and other laws, and based on Article 2 of the "Unreliable Entity List Provisions," China will hold them legally accountable for their unlawful actions. China has always handled the Unreliable Entity List issue with caution, targeting only a very small number of foreign entities that harm China's national security. Law-abiding foreign entities have no need to worry. The Chinese government, as always, welcomes enterprises from all over the world to invest and do business in China and is committed to providing a stable, fair, and predictable business environment for law-abiding foreign enterprises operating in China.

SMM Flash: Rare Earth Permanent Magnets Concept Strengthened in the Afternoon, Tianhe Magnetic Materials Hit the Limit Up, Prices of Medium-Heavy Rare Earths Such as Terbium Oxide Rose. On April 4, the Ministry of Commerce, in conjunction with the General Administration of Customs, issued an announcement on the implementation of export control measures on seven categories of medium-heavy rare earth-related items including samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium, which took effect immediately upon issuance. Influenced by the positive news of export control measures on some medium-heavy rare earth-related items by the two departments and the significant pre-increase in Q1 performance of China Northern Rare Earth, the rare earth permanent magnets concept sector strengthened significantly in the afternoon of April 8. As of 13:45 on April 8, the rare earth permanent magnets concept index rose by 2.47%.

SMM April 6 News: During the Qingming holiday, domestic futures, A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks were closed, while the overseas market remained open. Due to the unexpected "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the US, concerns over escalating global trade conflicts and a potential global economic recession led to a significant cooling of market risk appetite, triggering large-scale sell-offs. Copper, oil, US stocks, and precious metals experienced sharp declines. SMM summarized the market performance of the US dollar index, crude oil futures, precious metals, LME metals, and US stocks during the Qingming holiday as follows: Metal Market: During the Qingming holiday, domestic base metals were closed. Notably, overseas base metals fell on both April 3 and April 4. Market participants should be alert to the high probability of domestic metal futures following the overseas market's decline on April 7 and enhance risk prevention. Ferrous metals were also closed during the Qingming holiday. LME metals all declined during the holiday. As of the overnight close on April 4, LME copper fell 6.86%, LME nickel dropped 6.81%, LME zinc decreased 1.39%, LME tin declined 5.42%, LME lead fell 2.05%, and LME aluminum dropped 2.89%. Overseas Precious Metals: As of the overnight close on April 4, COMEX gold fell 2.61%, with a weekly decline of 1.99%. COMEX silver dropped 7.52%, with a weekly decline of 15.21%. SHFE gold and silver were closed during the Qingming holiday. Macro Front: Domestic: [11 Arrows Fired! China Firmly Counters US "Reciprocal Tariffs," Imposes 34% Tariffs on US Imports Starting at 12:00 on April 10] On April 2, US time, the US announced the imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" on all trading partners. China firmly opposes this and will take countermeasures to safeguard its rights and interests. On April 4, China issued a series of statements and announced countermeasures. On April 2, 2025, the US government announced the imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" on Chinese exports to the US. The US actions violate international trade rules, severely harm China's legitimate rights and interests, and are typical unilateral bullying practices. In accordance with the "Customs Law of the People's Republic of China," the "Foreign Trade Law of the People's Republic of China," and other relevant laws and regulations, as well as the basic principles of international law, and with the approval of the State Council, China will impose additional tariffs on imports originating from the US starting at 12:01 on April 10, 2025. The relevant matters are as follows: 1. An additional 34% tariff will be imposed on all imports originating from the US, based on the current applicable tariff rates. 2. The current bonded and duty-free policies remain unchanged, and the additional tariffs will not be exempted. 3. For goods that have already departed from the place of shipment before 12:01 on April 10, 2025, and are imported between 12:01 on April 10, 2025, and 24:00 on May 13, 2025, the additional tariffs specified in this announcement will not be imposed. [Two Departments: Export Controls on Certain Medium-Heavy Rare Earth-Related Items] On April 4, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued an announcement on the implementation of export controls on certain medium-heavy rare earth-related items. In accordance with the "Export Control Law of the People's Republic of China," the "Foreign Trade Law of the People's Republic of China," the "Customs Law of the People's Republic of China," and the "Regulations on the Export Control of Dual-Use Items of the People's Republic of China," and to safeguard national security and interests and fulfill international non-proliferation obligations, with the approval of the State Council, it has been decided to implement export control measures on seven categories of medium-heavy rare earth-related items, including samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium. The measures will take effect from the date of issuance. US Dollar: US tariffs have sparked concerns about an economic recession, leading to a sharp decline in the US dollar. The US dollar index fell significantly on April 3, hitting a low of 101.26%. As of the overnight close on April 4, the US dollar index rose 0.9% to 102.86. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index fell for two consecutive weeks, with a decline of 1.1% this week. Earlier, Fed Chairman Powell acknowledged that the impact of US tariffs was greater than expected and expressed a cautious tone regarding future policy easing. Powell stated that tariffs increase the risks of rising inflation and slowing growth, highlighting the challenges faced by Fed policymakers. Before Powell's remarks, data released earlier showed that non-farm payrolls increased by 228,000 in March, far exceeding the expected 135,000, while the February figure was revised down to 117,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. The market predicts that the Fed will cut interest rates four times in the remainder of the year. Next week, the closely watched CPI indicator will show the impact of goods and service prices on consumers. Other Currencies: UBS released a report stating that European economic growth will also slow, although the slowdown will be less severe than in the US. If tariffs remain at current levels throughout the summer, economic growth could be reduced by 50-100 basis points compared to a scenario without tariffs. As for inflation, EU retaliatory tariffs may lead to short-term price pressures, but we believe the medium-term impact of a trade war could suppress European inflation. Combined with weak economic growth, the European Central Bank may cut interest rates to below our previous expectation of 2% by June. Data: Next week, data to be released includes Germany's seasonally adjusted trade balance for February, the UK's Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index for March, the Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index for April, the Eurozone's retail sales for February, Japan's trade balance for February, France's trade balance for February, the US NFIB small business optimism index for March, China's CPI for March, the US unadjusted CPI for March, the US seasonally adjusted CPI for March, the US seasonally adjusted core CPI for March, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 5, China's M2 money supply for March, Germany's final CPI for March, the UK's three-month GDP for February, the UK's seasonally adjusted goods trade balance for February, the US PPI for March, the US PPI for March, the US one-year inflation rate expectation for April, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April. Additionally, next week, it is worth noting that San Francisco Fed President Daly will deliver a speech; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Orr will hold a monetary policy press conference; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will deliver a speech; the Fed will release the minutes of its March monetary policy meeting; the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock will deliver a speech; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will speak at the New York Economic Club; European Central Bank President Lagarde will speak at a Eurogroup press conference; and New York Fed President Williams will speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy. Crude Oil: Both oil futures fell on April 3 and April 4. As of the overnight close on April 4, US oil fell 6.47%, and Brent crude dropped 5.37%. On a weekly basis, US oil futures fell 9.73%, while Brent crude fell 8.93%. April 4 marked the second day of financial market sell-offs triggered by US tariff policies. Although oil, natural gas, and refined product imports were not included in the new US tariffs, the tariff policies could lead to inflation, slow economic growth, and exacerbate trade disputes, thereby putting pressure on oil prices. The OPEC+ alliance decided to proceed with its production increase plan, further pressuring oil prices. The alliance currently aims to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, up from the previously planned 135,000 barrels per day. Goldman Sachs analysts significantly lowered their December 2025 price targets for Brent and US crude by $5, to $66 and $62 per barrel, respectively. Daan Struyven, the bank's head of oil research, stated in a report: "Given the increasing risk of an economic recession and the relatively small increase in OPEC+ supply, the risk to our oil price forecast is skewed to the downside, especially in 2026." HSBC lowered its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast from 1 million barrels per day to 900,000 barrels per day, citing tariffs and OPEC+ decisions. (Webstock Inc.)

Due to concerns over a potential economic recession triggered by US President Trump's comprehensive tariff plan, base metals on the London Metal Exchange (LME) experienced a significant sell-off on Friday, with prices plummeting across the board. Copper futures recorded their largest single-day drop since the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. At 17:00 London time on April 4 (00:00 Beijing time on April 5), LME three-month copper futures closed down $586.5, or 6.26%, at $8,780 per mt, after earlier hitting $8,720, the lowest level since March 2024. Over the past 15 years, copper has only seen larger daily declines in March 2020 and during the European debt crisis in October 2011. Copper futures fell by more than 10% this week. Dan Smith, head of research at Amalgamated Metal Trading, said, "Metals reliant on economic growth are currently performing disastrously, as people fear tariffs will lead to a recession." According to Securities Times, on April 2, 2025, the US government announced the imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" on Chinese goods exported to the US. The US approach violates international trade rules, severely undermines China's legitimate rights and interests, and is a typical unilateral bullying practice. In accordance with the Tariff Law of the People's Republic of China, the Customs Law of the People's Republic of China, the Foreign Trade Law of the People's Republic of China, and other relevant laws and regulations, as well as the basic principles of international law, and with the approval of the State Council, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council will impose additional tariffs on imported goods originating from the US starting from 12:01 on April 10, 2025. The relevant matters are as follows: 1. An additional 34% tariff will be imposed on all imported goods originating from the US, based on the current applicable tariff rates. 2. The current bonded and duty-free policies remain unchanged, and the additional tariffs imposed this time will not be exempted. 3. For goods that have already departed from the place of shipment before 12:01 on April 10, 2025, and are imported between 12:01 on April 10, 2025, and 24:00 on May 13, 2025, the additional tariffs specified in this announcement will not be imposed. Announcement No. 18 of 2025 by the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced the decision to implement export controls on certain medium-heavy rare earth-related items. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce stated in response to media inquiries that, in accordance with the Export Control Law of the People's Republic of China and other relevant laws and regulations, the Ministry of Commerce, in conjunction with the General Administration of Customs, issued an announcement on April 4 regarding the implementation of export control measures on seven categories of medium-heavy rare earth-related items, including samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium, which took effect immediately upon issuance. To safeguard national security and interests and fulfill international obligations such as non-proliferation, the Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement in accordance with the Export Control Law of the People's Republic of China and the Regulations on the Export Control of Dual-Use Items of the People's Republic of China, deciding to include 16 US entities on the export control list and prohibiting the export of dual-use items to them. Smith said, "Market confidence has been severely damaged, and this is not something you can quickly eliminate." JPMorgan now believes there is a 60% chance of a global economic recession by the end of the year, up from the previous 40%. According to CCTV News, on April 4 local time, Fed Chairman Powell stated that the US Fed was shocked by the scope of tariffs imposed by US President Trump, indicating that the economic impact of the tariffs will be greater than previously thought. Powell said that the extent of the tariff hikes will clearly far exceed expectations, and the economic impact may be the same, including rising inflation and slowing economic growth. The scale and duration of these effects remain uncertain. It is reported that Powell previously stated that the inflationary effects of tariffs are likely to be "temporary." Powell declined to reveal whether he believes the US economy is heading toward a recession, but he acknowledged that the uncertainty of trade policy has put pressure on businesses, and an increasing number of forecasts indicate that the risk of a recession is rising. Chinese financial markets were closed on Friday for the Qingming Festival holiday and will resume trading next week. LME three-month aluminum futures, after hitting a low of $2,370 per mt since September 11, closed down $69.5, or 2.84%, at $378.5 per mt. Aluminum futures have fallen for 12 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative decline of 6.6% this week. Three-month nickel futures fell by $974, or 6.19%, to $14,758 per mt, after hitting a low of $14,595, the lowest level since October 2020, with a weekly decline of nearly 10%. Three-month zinc futures hit an eight-month low, falling 7% this week; lead futures touched their lowest level since October 2022, with a weekly decline of nearly 6%.