BHP is reportedly advancing plans to sell approximately US$1.5 billion worth of power transmission assets in Chile, including around 1,000 km of transmission lines supplying electricity to its Escondida, Spence and Cerro Colorado copper operations. According to media reports, the transaction could be completed as early as this year, although the final structure and potential buyers are still under review. The move as part of BHP’s broader strategy to streamline its portfolio and focus on core commodities such as copper. The company has continued to expand its copper exposure through projects including the Vicuña copper district development in Argentina, driven by growing demand linked to electrification and the energy transition.

South America remains the cornerstone of global copper supply, with Chile and Peru collectively accounting for more than one-third of global mined copper production. As electrification, grid modernisation, renewable energy deployment and AI-driven infrastructure investment continue to reinforce long-term copper demand growth, policy developments across the region are becoming increasingly important determinants of future supply availability.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $13,624.5/mt. In the early session, it experienced wild swings and dipped to $13,575.5/mt. Subsequently, the center of copper prices shifted upward, reaching a high of $13,678/mt, before fluctuating downward to finally close at $13,635/mt, up 0.18%. Trading volume reached 16,200 lots, and open interest stood at 269,000 lots, a decrease of 3,435 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 104,870 yuan/mt. In the early session, the center of copper prices fluctuated downward, touching a low of 104,420 yuan/mt. Subsequently, it fluctuated upward, reaching 105,280 yuan/mt, before moving sideways to finally close at 105,090 yuan/mt, up 0.58%. Trading volume reached 33,600 lots, and open interest stood at 172,000 lots, an increase of 627 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions.

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) released preliminary data on global copper supply and demand for March 2026 in its monthly bulletin published in May 2026. Preliminary data indicated that global copper mine production in Q1 2026 was basically flat, with copper concentrates production declining by 1.1%, offset by a 3.3% increase in solvent extraction-electrodeposition (SX-EW) production. Although global mine production benefited from additional output driven by capacity ramp-up of projects in several countries, significant declines in copper concentrates production in Chile, the DRC, and Indonesia offset global growth. In Indonesia, copper concentrates production at the Grasberg mine fell by 42%, as the severe mud inflow incident that occurred in September last year continued to affect the mine's production. Chile's mine production declined by 5.8%, with increased production at the Collahuasi and Quebrada Blanca mines offset by production cuts at the Spence, El Teniente, Escondida, and Los Pelambres mines. The DRC's mine production is estimated to have grown by only 0.5%: SX-EW production increased by approximately 10%, but was partially offset by a 36% decline in copper concentrates production due to reduced output at the Kamoa mine (affected by the 2025 earthquake event). In Peru, copper mine production grew by 3.3%, primarily driven by increased production at the Antamina, Las Bambas, and Antapaccay mines, which more than offset production declines at Southern Peru Copper, Quellaveco, and Marcobre. Mongolia's copper concentrates production is estimated to have grown by approximately 36%, benefiting from the capacity ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi underground project. Preliminary data indicated that global copper cathode production grew by approximately 4.5% in Q1 2026, with primary copper (electrolysis and ore electrodeposition) production increasing by 3.8% and secondary copper (from scrap) production increasing by 7.6%. China and the DRC, which currently account for approximately 60% of global production, saw their combined production increase by an estimated 9% (China 8.8%, DRC 10%). Excluding these two countries, global copper cathode production declined by approximately 1.4%. Chile's copper cathode production fell by 11.7%, with copper cathode (from concentrates) production declining by 24% due to smelter operational constraints and maintenance, and electrodeposition copper production declining by 5.7%. Production in Asia (excluding China) is estimated to have declined by 4%, mainly due to production decreases in Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines. India's production is estimated to have grown by 25%, benefiting from improved capacity utilization rates and the capacity ramp-up of the Adani smelter. Global secondary refined copper production (from scrap) increased by 7.6%, mainly driven by growth in China. Preliminary data indicated that global apparent refined copper usage grew by 0.8% in Q1 2026. Although global usage excluding China was estimated to have grown by 1.7%, China's apparent demand (excluding bonded warehouse/unreported inventory changes) was estimated to be basically flat, affected by a 40% decline in China's net imports of copper cathode. China currently accounts for approximately 58% of total global refined copper usage. The preliminary global refined copper supply-demand balance indicated an oversupply of 396,000 mt in Q1 2026. In compiling the global market balance, ICSG used China's apparent demand calculation method, which does not account for changes in unreported inventories. However, to facilitate global market analysis, an adjustment item has been added to the attached tables — "Global refined copper balance adjusted for Chinese bonded warehouse inventory changes" — which adjusts the global refined copper balance based on the average bonded warehouse inventory change estimates from two Chinese copper market consultancies. In Q1 2026, the global refined copper balance based on China's apparent usage (excluding bonded warehouse/unreported inventory changes) showed a preliminary oversupply of approximately 396,000 mt, compared with an oversupply of approximately 135,000 mt in the same period of 2025. The global refined copper balance adjusted for estimated changes in Chinese bonded warehouse inventories showed a market oversupply of approximately 386,000 mt. Copper Prices and Inventories: Based on the average estimates from two independent consultancies, Chinese bonded warehouse inventories were estimated to have decreased by approximately 10,000 mt from the end of 2025 levels during the first three months of 2026. As of the end of April 2026, copper inventories at major metal exchanges (LME, COMEX, SHFE) totaled 1,148,760 mt, the highest level since January 2003. Inventories increased by 404,648 mt, or 55%, from the end of December 2025, with LME up 253,350 mt, Shanghai Futures Exchange up 46,683 mt, and COMEX up 104,615 mt. The LME spot copper average price in April was $12,891.38 per mt, up 3% from the March average price of $12,498.98 per mt. The 2026 copper price high and low were $14,097 per mt (May 13) and $11,826 per mt (March 19), respectively, with a year-to-date average price of $12,947.22 per mt, up 30% from the 2025 average price. Global Refined Copper Supply and Demand Trends Notes: 1/ Refers to apparent usage 2/ Refined copper balance = production - usage 3/ Seasonally adjusted balance data 4/ Global refined copper balance adjusted for estimated changes in Chinese bonded warehouse inventories (Wenhua Composite)

On April 24, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) stood at -81.44 USD/dmt, down 2.83 USD/dmt from the previous reading of -78.61 USD/dmt. The deeply negative TC reflects the tightness in the global copper concentrate market, which has already shifted from market expectations to an actual rigid contraction in supply. In the first quarter of 2026, the world's leading mining companies frequently revised down their production guidance, with supply-side disruptions far exceeding early-year forecasts. Freeport significantly lowered its full-year 2026 copper production forecast from 1.542 million tonnes to approximately 1.406 million tonnes, with an expected recovery rate of only 65%, due to slower-than-expected mine recovery at its Grasberg site in Indonesia, affected by mudslides and ore moisture. In addition, road blockades caused by strikes at BHP's Escondida and Zaldivar mines have led to actual production impacts that remain to be monitored. According to SMM exclusive data, the global copper concentrate deficit in 2026 is estimated at 317,000 metal tonnes, a situation that may ease somewhat in 2029. In stark contrast to the persistently falling TC, domestic smelter operating rates remained high in Q1 2026. According to SMM data, China's electrolytic copper output in March 2026 reached 1.2061 million tonnes, up 5.58% month-on-month and 7.49% year-on-year. In Q1 2026, total electrolytic copper output was 3.5278 million tonnes, up 4.60% quarter-on-quarter and 10.45% year-on-year. SMM survey data shows that 11 smelters have confirmed maintenance schedules for Q2 2026. This means that domestic electrolytic copper output is expected to decline in Q2, with spot supplies likely tightening temporarily in May and June. However, some smelters have reported that due to high sulfuric acid prices, maintenance completion times may be brought forward. Sulfuric acid is currently the most important by-product revenue source for the copper smelting industry. According to SMM data, on April 24, 2026, China's copper smelting acid index stood at 1,660.5 RMB/ton, up 31.5 RMB/ton from the previous period. As sulfuric acid revenues have risen steadily from 890 RMB/ton at the start of 2026 to 1,660.5 RMB/ton in April 2026, based on the co-production of 3–4.5 tonnes of sulfuric acid per tonne of electrolytic copper, sulfuric acid income can now cover the copper concentrate procurement cost and part of the processing cost for smelters. The upward slope and magnitude of this increase exceed the deterioration in spot TC. The substantial boost in sulfuric acid profitability allows smelters to tolerate lower TC, creating a cycle of "higher sulfuric acid prices, lower TC." Meanwhile, rising gold and silver prices have further expanded smelters' comprehensive profit margins. Although the copper smelting segment is deeply loss-making, driven by the hefty profits from sulfuric acid, gold, and silver, domestic copper smelters have been able to maintain high operating rates without large-scale production cuts caused by deeply negative TC. Additionally, about 20% of the world's electrolytic copper comes from hydrometallurgical processes, with the DRC and Chile together accounting for nearly 80% of that. Hydrometallurgical copper production consumes large amounts of sulfuric acid, and sulfur is a key raw material for sulfuric acid. The current disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has cut off approximately 50–60% of Middle Eastern sulfur shipments by sea, pushing up sulfur and sulfuric acid prices. Worth noting is that as late April 2026 progresses, sulfuric acid export restrictions combined with increased domestic production have shown signs of price softening. If sulfuric acid prices continue to decline, it will directly squeeze the comprehensive profit margins of domestic smelters. At that point, the dual pressure of persistently low TC and falling sulfuric acid prices could trigger real production cuts on the smelting side. Although gold and silver prices do not directly determine TC trends, their macro-pricing logic as part of the non-ferrous metals sector is worth attention. The market has largely priced in the expectation that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at all in 2026, with the first rate cut possibly delayed until July 2027. For copper, a delayed rate cut means no near-term easing of macro liquidity, but copper's core pricing logic remains the ongoing tug-of-war between tightening supply on the mining side and rigid demand. In other words, precious metals are under pressure, but industrial metals' pricing center remains in real supply-demand fundamentals, which explains why weaker gold and silver prices have not dragged copper prices lower. According to SMM, for Chinese smelters, domestic copper concentrate spot TC transactions are feasible in the range of -81 USD/dmt to -88 USD/dmt. Some holders have attempted to offer TC at -100 USD/dmt, while some smelters are willing to accept deliveries at the lower end around -90 USD/dmt. The downward trend in TC has not yet stopped, and smelter purchasing activity may have weakened slightly, but not significantly. Key areas to watch moving forward: Sulfuric acid side: The price trend will depend on the interplay of multiple factors. First, China's sulfuric acid export policy direction: if export restrictions continue, domestic sulfuric acid supply will be relatively abundant, and prices may fall from highs; if exports are temporarily allowed, overseas hydrometallurgical copper supply risks will rise, but domestic sulfuric acid prices may find support. Second, the recovery of sulfur supply: when shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal will directly affect the pace at which Middle Eastern sulfur can supplement global markets. Third, seasonal demand changes for downstream products such as phosphate fertilizers will also cause periodic price volatility for sulfuric acid. Mining side: Focus on the progress of the Grasberg conversion project, labor negotiation results at Chilean mines, and logistics stability at mines such as Las Bambas in Peru. Any new supply release will effectively ease TC pressure. Macro side: Monitor the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, the U.S. dollar index, the actual driving effect of China's pro-growth policies on copper consumption, and whether the growth rate of copper demand in global new energy sectors is slowing marginally.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,299.5/mt, touched a low of $13,263/mt early in the session before the center fluctuated upward, reached a high of $13,480/mt near the close, and finally settled at $13,470.5/mt, up 2.4%, with trading volume at 22,000 lots and open interest at 275,000 lots, down 4,026 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 102,620 yuan/mt, touched a low of 102,490 yuan/mt early in the session, then the center rose to a high of 104,000 yuan/mt, and finally moved sideways to close at 103,900 yuan/mt, up 1.23%, with trading volume at 73,000 lots and open interest at 220,000 lots, up 15,806 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls increasing positions.

BHP Group announced in its earnings report on Wednesday that annual copper production will reach the upper half of its guidance range. The company stated that due to weak performance at its Escondida and Pampa Norte copper mine operations in Chile, Q3 copper production fell 7% YoY to 476,800 mt, below expectations of 479,200 mt. Among them, Escondida copper mine production was 303,200 mt, down 9% YoY; Pampa Norte copper mine production was 44,600 mt, down 34% YoY. For fiscal year 2026 year-to-date (through month-end March), copper production was 1.4609 million mt, down 3% from the previous fiscal year. The company stated that annual copper production is expected to reach the upper half of the guidance range of 1.9-2 million mt. Below are the production details: (unit: kt) (Wenhua Composite)

According to a report by Mining.com citing Bloomberg, Codelco aims to reclaim its position as the world's largest copper producer, targeting a modest increase in copper production in 2027. People familiar with the forecast said total production next year is expected to reach 1.5 million mt. The figure includes mines that Codelco does not operate but in which it holds minority stakes. The person, who asked not to be identified, said production from Codelco's own mines is expected to increase from 1.34 million mt this year to 1.37 million mt. The company is working to reverse a prolonged decline in production and get its aging mines and delayed expansion projects back on track. President Pacheco Maximo hopes to return to pre-pandemic levels of 1.7 million mt by 2030, when global market supply is expected to tighten. To address declining ore grades, cost overruns, and a heavy debt burden, Codelco has overhauled its management system and decentralized project leadership. Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) said Codelco is attempting to overtake BHP as the world's largest copper producer. BHP operates Escondida in northern Chile, the world's largest single copper mine. BI analyst Sporre Grant noted, "If Codelco can slightly increase production, and Escondida's grade declines as per the mining plan, then Codelco could become number one again."

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $12,744/mt, dipping to $12,642/mt early in the session. The price center then fluctuated upward to a high of $12,928/mt before fluctuating downward to finally close at $12,857/mt, up 1.27%, with trading volume at 22,000 lots and open interest at 293,000 lots, down 4,028 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 99,200 yuan/mt, fluctuated upward early in the session to reach 99,750 yuan/mt, then the price center gradually shifted lower to a low of 99,090 yuan/mt, followed by wild swings before finally closing at 99,310 yuan/mt, up 1.04%, with trading volume at 45,000 lots and open interest at 171,700 lots, down 2,724 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,724.5/mt. In early trading, it fluctuated upward to a high of $12,829.5/mt, after which the center of copper prices shifted straight downward to a low of $12,721/mt. It then fluctuated upward in a pullback and finally closed at $12,780/mt, down 1.07%. Trading volume reached 17,000 lots, and open interest stood at 293,000 lots, down 8,255 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to longs reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 99,120 yuan/mt. In early trading, it rose to 99,530 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward all the way to a low of 98,900 yuan/mt. Afterwards, the center of copper prices moved upward and finally closed at 99,140 yuan/mt, down 0.92%. Trading volume reached 27,700 lots, and open interest stood at 177,000 lots, down 1,993 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to longs reducing positions.