[Price Review] Silver prices remained under pressure this week, primarily due to renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, sustained expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes within the year, and strong performance in European and US equity markets that continued to divert funds from the precious metals market. On the macro front, newly appointed Fed Chairman Waller officially took office, with his hawkish stance reinforcing market tightening expectations; US-Iran negotiations remained volatile—according to Reuters on May 28, the US military launched a new round of strikes on military facilities within Iran. On the industrial demand side, as silver prices declined during the week, mainstream quotations and spot transaction discounts both narrowed. However, some suppliers had limited willingness to sell due to tax invoice audits and the approaching month-end, combined with downstream consumption still showing no significant improvement. Only some downstream enterprises lacking tax invoice input credit could accept small quantities at high premiums. The spot market overall exhibited sluggish trading on both sides, with inventory continuing to accumulate. Gold/silver ratio side, as of May 27, the LBMA gold/silver ratio rebounded to 62x, continuing to widen WoW. [Key Data] Bearish Waller officially assumed the role of Fed Chairman, with a clearly hawkish tone. US-Iran negotiations saw major reversals, causing market expectations to become chaotic. On May 25, Iran stated it had reached consensus with the US on most issues, but on May 28, Trump publicly stated that "Iran negotiations have made no progress." Speculative funds withdrew on a large scale—COMEX silver non-commercial net long positions declined sharply for three consecutive weeks, with cumulative reductions exceeding 25,000 contracts. Previously inflowing speculative funds concentrated on closing positions, amplifying the magnitude of silver's price decline. Bullish: Peru's energy crisis continued, with a national state of emergency extending to year-end. Twelve large mines have implemented staggered production schedules, and May silver production is expected to decline 5%-8%, with the global supply-demand gap persisting. [Upcoming Focus] May 29: US May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (final) June 3: US May ISM Manufacturing PMI June 5: US May Non-Farm Payrolls Report June 12: US May CPI Data Key focus: Fed officials' speeches, latest developments in US-Iran negotiations, execution of production restrictions at Peruvian mines [Price Forecast] Silver is expected to hover at lows in a bottoming pattern next week, with core variables being Fed officials' speeches and the direction of US-Iran negotiations. Current market sentiment is extremely cautious, with macro headwinds remaining the dominant factor, and the previous supply-side speculation narrative having largely faded. Operationally, a wait-and-see approach is recommended, pending clear stabilization signals. China fundamentals side, downstream buying sentiment remains cautious, overall consumption is still sluggish, and spot silver ingot social inventory continues to accumulate. However, as silver's absolute price has declined and bank floor purchase price discounts have narrowed, mainstream spot transaction discounts are expected to contract slightly to a range of 20-0 yuan/kg discount to the SGE TD price.

The global secondary copper industry is at a critical stage characterized by tightening resources, green transformation, and intensifying global competition. As environmental protection policies continue to tighten and the energy crisis deepens, secondary copper, with its significant environmental and economic advantages, plays an increasingly prominent role in alleviating tight supply of primary copper and promoting low-carbon development. Currently, the global copper industry chain faces multiple pressures including fragile supply, demand transformation, and low-carbon upgrading. Major economies have successively included copper in their critical minerals lists, and international competition over secondary copper resources is becoming increasingly fierce. Optimizing the industry chain structure, improving recycling efficiency, and harmonizing global standards have become urgent priorities for the industry. To help the industry gain a comprehensive understanding of global policy trends and market landscapes, SMM and Uchida Corporation have joined hands to produce the , focusing on industry development directions and conveying market insights, aiming to provide practitioners with an authoritative and professional industry distribution guide. (Click the link to receive for free:) Focusing on Resource Recycling, Connecting Global Markets Basic Information · Company Name: Uchida Corporation · Headquarters: Itami City, Hyogo Prefecture, Japan · Established: 2013 Main Business Recovery, sorting, processing, and sales of stainless steel, copper, aluminum, and other non-ferrous and special metals, as well as international procurement and export trade. Core Business Activities · Dismantling project contracting · Participation in large-scale bidding projects · Recovery of industrial metal scrap generated by recycling and dismantling companies · Bulk metal exports to clients outside China · Global metal raw material procurement and trade Production and Processing Capacity · Factory Facilities: 2 metal recycling plants, 1 copper wire nodules processing plant · Monthly Processing Capacity: Copper: approximately 300 mt Stainless steel: approximately 500 mt Aluminum: approximately 200 mt Total: over 1,000 mt Qualifications and Licenses · ISO9001 (Quality) · ISO45001 (Occupational Health and Safety) · ISO14001 (Environment) · Hyogo Prefecture Specified Construction Business License (Special-7) No. 303544 · Hyogo Prefectural Public Safety Commission License: Metal Scrap Dealer · Hyogo Prefectural Public Safety Commission License: Machinery and Tools Dealer · Industrial Waste Collection and Transportation License International Trade and Export Advantages · Leveraging high-grade recycled metal resources from Japan, maintaining long-term stable exports to Asian and European and US markets · Establishing an international procurement network to achieve multi-channel supply of recycled metal raw materials · Strictly implementing quality sorting and processing standards to meet ex-China clients' requirements for composition and specifications · Providing one-stop trade services from sourcing and processing to logistics Business Philosophy With efficiency and environmental protection at its core, leveraging a comprehensive qualification system, promoting cross-border resource recycling, and creating long-term sustainable value for clients. Uchida Corporation SMM Joint Production Contact Liu Mingkang 156 5309 0867 liumingkang@smm.cn

May 22, 2026 7:07 AM EDT Key Points Central banks sold gold to defend currencies amid 2026 US-Israel-Iran conflict and energy crisis. Jeffrey Currie predicts gold could fall to $3,750 before rallying as structural buyers return. Long-term, AI-driven demand and underinvestment may push gold prices toward $10,000 per ounce. Gold has always been the asset investors run to when they stop believing in everything else. It is the trade that pays off when central banks lose credibility, when currencies wobble, when geopolitics get loud, and when the rest of the stock market finally cracks. For most of the past three years, that playbook worked beautifully. Sovereign buyers from Beijing to Warsaw to Ankara stacked bullion at a pace not seen in half a century. Retail piled in behind them. The metal blew through one all-time high after another, and the bears went quiet. Then 2026 happened. A US-Israeli war on Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, sent energy prices vertical, and forced some of the same central banks that drove the rally to start unloading their gold to defend collapsing currencies. The yellow metal has now given back almost all of its year-to-date gains, hovering near $4,534 an ounce on May 19, according to Fortune . Now one of Wall Street ’s most respected commodity voices is telling clients the pain is far from over. And the eventual payoff, if his call lands, will dwarf anything the gold market has ever produced. Why this gold selloff is just getting started The bear in question is Jeffrey Currie, the former global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs ( GS ), who spent 27 years at the firm before leaving in 2023 and is now chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle Group ( CG ), according to Carlyle . He is best known for calling the 2000s commodity supercycle and predicting oil’s run past $100 a barrel. In a recent thread on X , the former Twitter, Currie wrote that he has been “short gold” since March despite describing himself as a “gold perma bull”. His thesis is mechanical, not philosophical. The Iran conflict and the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz have driven energy import costs higher and pressured emerging-market currencies. To defend those currencies and pay for fuel, some of the world’s most prolific gold buyers have flipped into sellers. Turkey is the cleanest example. Its central bank sold or swapped roughly 79 tons of gold in the first quarter alone, with “the largest sales from Turkey (60 tonnes) and Russia (16 tonnes) [offsetting] purchases elsewhere,” according to the World Gold Council . “When the marginal central bank flips from structural buyer to forced seller to pay for energy, gold’s biggest bid disappears,” Currie wrote on X . That dynamic, in his view, points to a deeper retracement. He sees gold sliding all the way toward $4,000, with a possible overshoot into the $3,750 range, before sovereign buyers, particularly China, step back in and restart the rally. The bigger thesis behind the $10,000 gold target Currie’s gold call sits inside a much bigger argument about how a decade of capital flows have left commodity markets dangerously under-invested. After running the numbers against his framework myself, the imbalance is more extreme than most equity investors realize. The argument starts with where the money has gone. The Magnificent Seven plus Oracle ( ORCL ) are projected to spend roughly $820 billion on artificial intelligence capital expenditure in 2026 alone, which Currie called “the largest physical commodity bid ever assembled inside eight income statements,” according to Benzinga . Meanwhile, the suppliers cannot keep up. The numbers Currie laid out paint a clear picture: Information Technology and Communication Services make up roughly 43% of the S&P 500 , while Energy and Materials together account for about 6%. Upstream oil and gas investment is down 35% from its 2015 peak. The world’s top 20 mining companies are spending 40% less than during the 2012 peak cycle, per Currie’s analysis. Central banks bought a net 244 tonnes of gold in Q1 2026, up 3% year-on-year. Source: Currie’s analysis via Benzinga Currie calls this transition the move from “HAGO” (Hard Assets, Global Operations) into “ HALO ” (Hard Assets, Local Operations), where physical commodities are repriced upward as supply struggles to meet AI -driven demand. “The price will overshoot first. The capex will follow. Then the new supply,” Currie wrote in his X thread . That sequence, in his framework, is what eventually pushes gold to $10,000. Once central banks stop fighting inflation , pivot back to easier policy, and resume buying physical metal, the same forced sellers of today flip back into structural bidders. What this gold call means for your portfolio None of this guarantees Currie is right. Plenty of veteran strategists have made bold price calls that aged poorly, and the path from $4,000 to $10,000 will almost certainly take years rather than quarters. Iris Cibre, founder of Phoenix Consultancy in Istanbul, has noted that Turkey’s recent gold operations were primarily designed to support the lira during a specific war-driven liquidity crunch, not a verdict on gold’s long-term value, according to the Canadian Mining Report . That distinction matters. Forced selling is not fundamental selling, and a 2025 survey found that 95% of central banks expected global gold holdings to rise over the next 12 months, according to the World Gold Council . In my analysis, what makes Currie’s framework interesting is the structural argument underneath the headline number. Markets have systematically underfunded the physical world for a decade while flooding the digital one with capital. If he is even directionally right, the next gold cycle is less about jewelry, inflation hedges, or fear trades. It is about repricing every ton of metal that an AI data center, an EV plant, or a defense supply chain ultimately needs, an argument that echoes Goldman’s own longer-term outlook for the rest of this decade. For investors holding the SPDR Gold Shares ( GLD ) ETF, which was up 3.32% year-to-date as of last week, the short-term setup looks ugly. Currie himself is positioned for a deeper drawdown first. But the same trade he is shorting today is the one he expects to flip aggressively long once the energy shock starts hurting growth. If you own gold, the next chapter of this story will probably be written by central banks, not by day traders. And central banks have very long memories. Source： https://www.thestreet.com/investing/veteran-goldman-strategist-makes-stunning-10000-gold-call

SMM May 23: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight domestic market saw base metals mostly rise. SHFE copper rose 0.58%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.14%, SHFE lead rose 0.3%. SHFE zinc fell 0.16%. SHFE tin rose 1.09%. SHFE nickel rose 0.49%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.77%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract fell 0.06%. Last Friday's overnight ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore was flat at 792.5 yuan/mt, stainless steel rose 0.34%, rebar edged down 0.09%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.15%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal continued to fall for the third consecutive trading day, down 1.45%, and coke fell 0.95%. Last Friday's overnight overseas metals market saw LME base metals rise across the board. LME copper rose 0.18%. LME aluminum rose 0.45%, LME lead rose 0.4%. LME zinc edged up 0.06%. LME tin rose 1.16%. LME nickel rose 0.67%. Last Friday's overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 0.7%, posting a second consecutive weekly decline with a 1.13% weekly drop; COMEX silver fell 1.06%, falling for two consecutive weeks with a 2.1% weekly drop. Last Friday's overnight SHFE gold most-traded contract fell 0.1%, posting a second consecutive weekly decline with a 2.13% weekly drop; SHFE silver most-traded contract rose 0.51%, but SHFE silver fell for two consecutive weeks with a 7.81% weekly drop. As of 8:31 am on May 23, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [PBOC: 600 billion yuan MLF operation to be conducted on May 25] PBOC: To maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on May 25, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 600 billion yuan MLF operation with a fixed quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple-price winning method, with a maturity of 1 year. [CSRC: Crackdown on illegal cross-border securities business; investors' property safety unaffected by the rectification] Xinhua News Agency reported that recently, with the approval of the State Council, the CSRC and seven other departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Comprehensive Rectification of Illegal Cross-border Securities, Futures, and Fund Business Activities." Regarding this rectification, all parties are highly concerned about how the legitimate rights and interests of existing investors will be protected. In this regard, the plan emphasized that investors' property safety will not be affected by the rectification. A CSRC official said the plan specified numerous measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of existing investors. For example, a 2-year concentrated rectification period will be set to phase out relevant domestic services of overseas institutions. Overseas institutions are required to properly communicate with investors affected by rectification measures in China and arrange account disposal to ensure client property safety. [Hong Kong SFC: Enhanced measures to address forged documents and money laundering risks and raise account opening standards] The Hong Kong SFC issued a circular on May 22, setting out the monitoring measures that should be implemented when opening accounts and maintaining customer relationships. The circular was issued following the SFC's review of account opening practices at 12 securities brokerages. The review identified multiple significant deficiencies, including inadequate due diligence on account opening documents, acceptance of suspicious or forged documents during the account opening process, and weaknesses in managing cross-border agency relationships with ex-China intermediaries. (Wallstreetcn) US dollar: Last Friday, the overnight US dollar index rose 0.12% to 99.32. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index posted its second consecutive weekly gain, up 0.04% for the week. The 17th Fed Chairman Warsh was sworn in at the White House on Friday. Warsh stated: "The Fed's mission is to promote price stability and full employment." He said, "When these goals are pursued with wisdom and clarity, independence and resolve, inflation can be lower, economic growth can be stronger, real take-home wages can be higher, America can be more prosperous, and just as importantly, America's standing in the world can be more secure." He added: "To fulfill this mission, I will lead a reform-oriented Fed that learns from past successes and mistakes, breaking free from static frameworks and models while adhering to clear standards of integrity and performance." (Jin10 Data) Fed Governor Waller's hawkish remarks put US Treasury prices under pressure, with money markets fully pricing in a 25-basis-point interest rate hike in 2026. The most significant policy signal on Friday came from Fed Governor Waller. On Friday local time, Fed Governor Waller stated that as the energy shock from the Iran war pushes up prices, he supports making it clear that the Fed's next rate move is as likely to be a hike as an interest rate cut. Waller said his current stance is to remain patient and keep rates unchanged until the impact of the war becomes clearer, but he warned on Friday that he does not rule out the possibility of future rate hikes if inflation does not begin to slow down soon. Waller's remarks were released almost simultaneously with the swearing-in of new Fed Chairman Warsh. The interest rate environment Warsh currently faces is notably more hawkish than the Fed's internal dot plot expectations. (Wall Street CN) "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos noted that there were several key moments during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony at the White House: ① Trump asked Warsh to be "completely independent." Trump said, "(I hope he) doesn't look at me, doesn't look at anybody." ② Just two minutes later, Trump offered some "suggestions" indicating the economic direction he hoped to see: "Strong economic growth doesn't need to be cooled down," "Economic growth does not mean inflation," and "I want the economy to boom to unprecedented levels, because there is indeed some debt to deal with." ③ Trump hinted that the US Fed's decision-making body would "converge." He said other Fed policymakers "will make their own decisions, but they will listen to Kevin throughout," even those "whose positions are slightly different." ④ Warsh referenced Greenspan, not Bernanke. Warsh recalled the historical scene of Greenspan being sworn in at the White House in 1987, and pledged to "begin work with abundant energy and a sense of mission, just as Chairman Greenspan did." He made no mention of former Chairman Bernanke, with whom he had worked for five years during his previous tenure as a governor. (Jin10 Data) In addition, affected by the Iran war, the US consumer confidence index in May fell to a historic low, and long-term inflation expectations also deteriorated significantly. Data showed that the University of Michigan's final reading of the May consumer confidence index dropped to 44.8, with consumers expecting prices to rise at an annualized rate of 3.9% over the next five to ten years, up from 3.5% in April and hitting a seven-month high. They also expected prices to rise 4.8% over the next year. Gasoline prices continued to hover near their highest levels since 2022, exacerbating Americans' concerns about rising living costs and the failure to reach a deal to end the war. The impact of inflation on household budgets, particularly for low-income consumers, poses risks to the future consumption outlook. Joanne Hsu, the survey director, stated: "Cost of living concerns remain the top issue on people's minds, with 57% of respondents spontaneously citing that high prices are eroding their personal finances, up from 50% last month." She stated: "The key point is that consumers appear worried that inflation will not only spread beyond fuel prices to other areas, but that this upward trend could persist well into the future." (Jin10 Data) Regarding other currencies: ECB President Lagarde stated that despite the deepening impact of the Iran conflict, long-term inflation expectations remained broadly in line with the 2% target. Although the energy crisis is pushing up inflation and dragging down the economy, long-term inflation expectations have remained well-anchored overall. The impact of this conflict on medium-term inflation and economic activity will depend on the intensity and duration of the energy price shock, as well as the scale of its indirect transmission effects. (Wall Street Journal) Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo said that Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae told him during their meeting on Friday that she hoped the BOJ would adopt appropriate policies, taking into account the government's price measures. Ueda Kazuo told reporters after the meeting with Takaichi Sanae at the Prime Minister's residence in Tokyo that it was a routine meeting between the two and that no specific details of monetary policy were discussed. (Wall Street Journal) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include the UK May CBI retail sales balance, US March FHFA house price index MoM, US March S&P/CS 20-city non-seasonally adjusted house price index YoY, US May Conference Board consumer confidence index, US May Dallas Fed business activity index, Australia April non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, New Zealand RBNZ interest rate decision through May 27, Switzerland May ZEW investor confidence index, US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 9, US May Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Eurozone May industrial confidence index, Eurozone May economic sentiment index, Canada Q1 current account, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 23, US April core PCE price index YoY, US April personal spending MoM, US Q1 real GDP annualized QoQ revised, US April core PCE price index MoM, US April durable goods orders MoM, US April new home sales annualized, Japan April unemployment rate, France May CPI MoM preliminary, France Q1 GDP YoY final, Germany May seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany May CPI MoM preliminary, Canada March GDP MoM, US May Chicago PMI, and China May official manufacturing PMI. In addition, other events to watch this week include: 500 billion yuan in 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 1 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo maturing today; BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo delivering a speech at a monetary policy conference hosted by the BOJ; the RBNZ releasing its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement; RBNZ Governor Breeman holding a monetary policy press conference; the ECB publishing the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams delivering a keynote speech at a conference co-organized by the Central Bank of Iceland; 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem delivering a speech; Bank of England Governor Bailey delivering a speech; 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid delivering a speech; and US Fed Governor Bowman delivering a speech. In addition, it is worth noting that due to the Memorial Day holiday, the US stock market will be closed for one day on May 25 (Monday). Trading of precious metals and WTI crude oil futures contracts under CME will end early at 02:30 Beijing time on May 26, and trading of US equity and Treasury futures contracts will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on May 26. Due to the Buddha's Birthday holiday, the Hong Kong stock market will be closed for one day on May 25 (Monday), with Southbound and Northbound trading suspended. The South Korean stock market will also be closed for one day on the same date. In addition, due to the Spring Bank Holiday, the UK stock market will be closed for one day on May 25 (Monday). Trading of Brent crude oil futures contracts under ICE will end early at 01:30 Beijing time on May 26. Investors are advised to take note. (Jin10 Data) The overseas market exchange closure schedule is as follows (all in Beijing time): Crude oil: Both oil futures rose during the overnight session last Friday, with WTI up 0.67% and Brent up 1.62%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures declined 3.98% for the week, and Brent futures declined 4.59% for the week. Since the ceasefire agreement was reached in April this year, US-Iran negotiations have remained deadlocked, with no comprehensive agreement to end the conflict in sight. Although a draft reportedly "close to being finalized" has been emerging, four core obstacles still stand in the way of lasting peace. According to Bloomberg, the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear issues, the Lebanon conflict, and sanctions currently constitute the four core points of divergence in the negotiations. For investors, this war has plunged global energy markets into severe turbulence, and any progress or breakdown in negotiations will have an impact on commodity prices. (Wallstreetcn) Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated on May 22 that it was premature to say a US-Iran agreement was close to being reached, as significant differences remained between the two sides. According to Iranian media reports on May 22, Baghaei, commenting on the visit of senior Pakistani officials to Tehran, said it indicated that the current situation had entered a "turning point or decisive stage." He mentioned that Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff Munir had visited Tehran and that related communications were still ongoing. When asked whether this meant a change in the negotiation process, Baghaei said it could not be said that a US-Iran agreement was close to being reached, as there were serious and wide-ranging differences between the US and Iran, and "diplomacy is a time-consuming process." Baghaei added that one should not expect to see results within weeks or months through several rounds of back-and-forth consultations. He emphasized that diplomatic negotiations are inherently a long-term process, and both sides are utilizing various opportunities to convey their respective positions. (Xinhua) Baker Hughes data showed that US drilling companies increased the number of oil and natural gas rigs for the fifth consecutive week. The total US oil rig count for the week ending May 22 was 425, compared to the previous reading of 415. In addition, Kazakhstan's national oil and gas company reported that Q1 oil production fell 12% YoY to 5.6 million mt. (Jin10 Data) According to Bloomberg, affected by the Iran war, the national average gasoline price in the US has surpassed $4.5 per gallon, with California exceeding $6. Despite high prices, consumers have not significantly reduced fuel purchases. For most Americans, driving to work and picking up children are daily necessities. Gasoline spending is nearly impossible to cut, and consumers can only reduce discretionary spending to balance their budgets. Philadelphia resident Avarisse Crawford said she has cut entertainment expenses, replacing steak dinners and bar outings with free park activities. The ongoing Middle East tensions continue to push oil prices higher. The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has hindered global crude oil transportation, and US gasoline inventory has fallen to its lowest level for the same period since 2014. Morgan Stanley expects it to hit a seasonal historic low by the end of August. Facing persistently climbing oil prices, the Trump administration has successively released strategic petroleum reserves, waived the Jones Act, and discussed implementing a federal gasoline tax holiday, but the effects remain unclear. As the Memorial Day weekend kicks off the summer travel season, upward demand pressure is expected to further strain already tight inventories. (Wallstreetcn) Recommended Reading:

According to the *Global EV Outlook 2026* report released by the International Energy Agency on the 20th, amid the energy crisis, governments and consumers around the world are accelerating the shift toward EVs. Global EV sales are expected to reach 23 million units in 2026, accounting for nearly 30% of global new car sales. The report showed that global EV sales grew 20% YoY in 2025, surpassing 20 million units for the first time and accounting for a quarter of global new car sales.

[Price Review] Silver fell sharply at the beginning of this week, mainly due to repeated Middle East geopolitical tensions with slow progress in US-Iran negotiations, critically low global crude oil inventories driving oil prices higher, combined with rising interest rate hike expectations and rising US Treasury yields, which continued to weigh on precious metals valuations. On Wednesday evening, as US-Iran tensions eased somewhat, oil prices declined while medium- and long-term US Treasury yields both pulled back, and precious metals futures rebounded slightly. On the macro front, new Fed Chairman Waller delivered his first public speech maintaining a hawkish stance. Combined with US April non-farm payrolls and CPI both exceeding expectations, interest rate hike expectations continued to rise, with expectations for rate cuts within the year nearly zeroed out. CME Fed Watch showed a 97.3% probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged in June and a 2.7% probability of a rate cut; a 72.7% probability of rates remaining unchanged from current levels in September, a 2% probability of a rate cut, and a 25.4% probability of a rate hike. Industrial demand side, at the beginning of the week, downstream consumption recovered slightly as silver prices declined, but demand quickly faded as prices rebounded. Some suppliers also showed weak willingness to offer due to continuously widening transaction discounts, with the price spread between high and low offers widening. The silver spot market remained generally low in activity, and inventory continued to increase slightly. Gold/silver ratio, as of May 20, the LBMA gold/silver ratio rebounded to 59x, widening notably WoW. [Key Data] Bearish New Fed Chairman Waller delivered his first speech on May 15 with an extremely hawkish tone, explicitly stating there was no reason for rate cuts in the near term and not ruling out the possibility of resuming rate hikes. April CPI came in at 3.8% YoY (the highest since May 2023), core CPI at 2.8% (the highest since September 2025), and PPI at 6.0% YoY (the largest single-month increase in over four years), with inflation stickiness exceeding market expectations. The US dollar index rebounded above 105, the 10-year US Treasury yield broke through 4.5%, and the 30-year US Treasury yield reached above 5%, significantly raising the opportunity cost of holding precious metals. India raised silver import tariffs from 6% to 15% while tightening import quotas, causing demand from the world's largest physical buyer to drop sharply. Bullish: Peru's energy crisis continued, with a national state of emergency extending through year-end. Twelve large mines have implemented staggered production, and May silver production is expected to decline by 5%-8%, with the global supply-demand gap persisting. US-Iran negotiations saw new positive progress, with both sides engaging in indirect contact through Qatar and reaching preliminary consensus on some core disagreements. [Upcoming Focus] May 22: Waller's inauguration speech; Eurozone and UK May manufacturing PMI preliminary readings May 23: US May Markit manufacturing and services PMI preliminary readings May 27: US 2026 Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly rate revised value May 28: US April core PCE price index, weekly initial jobless claims Key focus: Waller's official inauguration speech as Fed Chairman, US-Iran negotiation progress [Price Forecast] Silver is expected to remain under pressure with adjustments next week, with core variables being Waller's inauguration speech and US-Iran negotiation progress. The market is closely watching Warsh's debut and four key focus areas: the US Fed's stance on independence, inflation framework reform, interest rate path, and balance sheet reduction pace. Combined with Warsh's previous policy positions, if he insists on prioritizing anti-inflation efforts and releases expectations of retaining the rate hike option, precious metals are expected to face sustained suppression in the short term. On the China fundamentals side, downstream buying sentiment is generally cautious. The decline in silver's absolute price has not significantly boosted downstream demand, and wait-and-see sentiment remains strong. Social inventory of spot silver ingots has increased slightly, and the market expects spot mainstream transaction discounts to widen slightly to the SGE TD discount range of 50-20 yuan/kg.

[Will Refined Zinc Maintain Net Imports in April with Exports Increasing in May?] According to the latest customs data, refined zinc imports in April 2026 were 6,000 mt, down 8,400 mt or 58.27%% MoM, and down 78.62% YoY. Cumulative refined zinc imports from January to April were 49,000 mt, down 61.98% YoY cumulatively. Refined zinc exports in April were 3,900 mt, down 16.22% MoM and up 59.21% YoY.

Published：May 13, 2026 The World Bank recently revised its precious metals outlook for 2026. The group now anticipates this basket of commodities to rise collectively by 42% in 2026. This represents a significant upward shift in projections, primarily fueled by the escalating Middle East conflict, rampant energy supply disruptions, dampened global growth, and heightened financial uncertainty. Precious Metals Lead the Commodity Complex In January 2026, the World Bank issued a commodities report that predicted a positive jump in its precious metals index for the year. This grouping holds gold, silver, and platinum, notably excluding palladium. Within Q1 alone, each asset in this basket of precious metals soared above the group’s expectations. Furthermore, each of these metals climbed to record highs in the early innings of the year. Gold prices shot up beyond $5,400/oz. Silver exploded to $116/oz. Platinum prices jumped to $2,770/oz. In late April, the World Bank issued another commodities report raising its precious metals outlook. Now, the group projects this collection of metals will surge by 42% throughout 2026, compared to the averages in 2025. Crucially, precious metals are projected to outperform nearly all other commodities, including base metals, fertilizer, and even energy prices. The global bank’s forecasts position silver as the highest-performing metal in 2026, with platinum as a close second. While gold is also expected to rise significantly, the yellow metal’s already elevated value means smaller percentage gains. Why the World Bank Expects Precious Metals to Rise A handful of long-running and newly forming factors are propelling the World Bank’s precious metals predictions higher for 2026. This fuel is a combination of geopolitical, macroeconomic, and fiscal policy issues: 1. Geopolitical Safe-Haven Demand Among the more pressing and immediate tailwinds for precious metals is war in Iran , which has spilt over into the broader Middle East region. The conflict has effectively choked off the Hormuz Strait, where nearly 20% of the world’s oil flows through. Drone and artillery attacks on various energy installations throughout the Gulf States further complicate the energy crisis. In response, investors have been actively rotating into safe-haven assets, such as precious metals, to offset the economically damaging effects of the oil shock and broader energy shortage. Historically, gold has consistently shown a tendency to perform well during periods of geopolitical turmoil and a loss of confidence in fiat systems. 2. Inflationary Energy Shock March marked the single largest inflation-adjusted quarterly rise in oil since 1988, per the Energy Information Administration . Throughout Q1, Brent crude nearly doubled, leaping from $61 to $118 per barrel. In March alone, liquid natural gas costs rose by 59% in European markets and by 94% in Asia. This collective surge in energy prices threatens to drive global inflation higher as loftier fuel costs drive up prices in virtually all sectors. The World Bank revised its inflation forecasts for Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) to a staggering 5.1%. Once again, precious metals stand to gain, especially gold, which has a proven track record going back centuries for keeping pace with inflation . 3. Market Volatility & Policy Uncertainty The international financial institution further warns that the combination of geopolitical instability and rising inflation threatens to undermine market confidence and fiscal policy direction. Mainstream assets heavily tied to fiat currencies tend to wane during periods of high uncertainty, increasing the appeal of safe-haven assets . Gold demand is likely to increase from central banks, major financial institutions, and retail investors as traditional assets struggle. 4. Slowing Growth & Stagflation Risks At the same time, EMDE inflation is expected to rise, and growth across most economies is projected to fall, creating a one-two punch of economic hardship. This trend is playing out in advanced economies, too, with the U.S. gross domestic product hitting only 0.7% in Q4 2025 . The economy recovered slightly in Q1 2026, reaching 2%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis , but it remains far from ideal levels. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis The alarming trifecta of slowing growth, rising inflation, and soaring commodity prices has the World Bank cautioning about the elevated odds of stagflation . In this challenging economic climate, all the tailwinds for precious metals would only intensify. Precious Metals Forecasts Remain Elevated Although precious metals have moderated since their early-year highs, experts across various sectors remain bullish on the upward potential of these commodities. Most notably, 2026 gold price forecasts remain above $6,000/oz. Meanwhile, silver price predictions for the year sit near $105/oz. These positive expectations fall right in line with the World Bank’s upward revision of its earlier predictions, signaling a strong potential for further growth among these key precious metals. Navigate Global Turmoil with Our Free Precious Metals Guide If you’re interested in learning more about how you can strategically position your portfolio to take advantage of these precious metals, grab a FREE copy of our Precious Metals Investment Guide . It covers everything you need to know about buying, holding, and managing physical gold and silver to protect your wealth. Source： https://www.sbcgold.com/blog/world-bank-sees-precious-metals-surging-42-in-2026-amid-global-turmoil/

Conference Name: AIAC 2026 SMM (15th) Aluminum Industry Annual Conference Conference Date: October 12-13, 2026 Conference Venue: Guiyang, China Conference Theme: Long-term Contracts · Trade · Market Trends Organizer: SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. In 2026, the global aluminum industry is at a critical juncture of profound transformation and strategic transition. As the world's largest aluminum producer (accounting for approximately 60% of global aluminum production), China's industrial dynamics profoundly influence the global market landscape. The industry currently faces multiple challenges and opportunities, including global resource allocation and import dependence, the supply-demand pattern of alumina and aluminum, long-term contract trading models and risk management, and responses to geopolitical tensions and trade barriers. Against this backdrop, China's aluminum industry urgently needs to achieve breakthroughs through technological innovation, enhance efficiency and set benchmarks through management upgrades, and ultimately realize a strategic leap from "scale advantage" to "quality advantage," advancing steadily on the path of high-quality development. Thisis scheduled to be held in Guiyang on October 12-13, 2026. Organized by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., the conference will focus on global bauxite allocation strategies, innovation in long-term contract pricing models, optimization of price forecasting models, application of risk hedging tools, energy transition pathways, and technological innovation directions, aiming to help enterprises seize opportunities for high-quality development of the aluminum industry under the "dual carbon" goals and achieve sustained industrial growth. Conference Value | Conference Value This conference focuses on upstream resource security, long-term contract trade, market insights and price forecasting, risk hedging, energy transition, and technological innovation sharing, with particular emphasis on global bauxite allocation, the supply-demand balance of alumina and aluminum, and long-term contract pricing models. It aims to help enterprises grasp market trends, optimize resource allocation, address trade challenges, and promote the healthy development of the aluminum industry. Attendees | Attendees This conference will invite representatives from premium enterprises across the aluminum industry chain (bauxite, alumina, aluminum, aluminum processing), traders, end-users, government leaders, trade associations, authoritative experts, industry research institutions, financial institutions, and other industry representatives. The conference is expected to attract over 500 attendees. Past Conference Guests Company Name Company Representative Name Name Job Title Job Title Main Products Main Products Shandong Aluminium Industry Association SHANDONG ALUMINIUM INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION Wen Xianjun Former Vice President of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA), Honorary President of Shandong Aluminium Industry Association China Aluminum International Trading Group Co., Ltd. China Aluminum International Trading Group Co., Ltd. Li Guangfei Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee, General Manager Aluminum, alumina, bauxite SPIC Aluminum International Trading Co., Ltd. State Power Investment Corporation Aluminum International Trading Co., Ltd. Liu Renjian General Manager Bauxite, alumina, aluminum and related products Gansu Dongxing Aluminium Co., Ltd. Gansu Dongxing Aluminium Co., Ltd. Li Jipeng General Manager Aluminum, aluminum billet, aluminum coil, aluminum rod Shandong Hongtuo Industrial Co., Ltd. Shandong Hongtuo Industrial Co., Ltd Jiang Zhen Sales General Manager Alumina, aluminum Henan Zhongfu Industrial Co., Ltd. Henan Zhongfu Industrial Co., Ltd. Qian Yu General Manager Aluminum, aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil Henan Shenhuo International Trading Co., Ltd. HENAN SHENHUO INTERNATIONAL TRADING CO., LTD. Zhang Linhai General Manager Aluminum Yidian Holdings Group International Trade Co., Ltd. Yidian Holdings Group International Trade Co., Ltd Meng Tao General Manager Aluminum Yidian Holdings Group International Trade Co., Ltd. Yidian Holdings Group International Trade Co., Ltd Fan Weiguo Deputy General Manager Aluminum Ningbo Kaiton International Trade Co., Ltd. Ningbo Kaiton International Trade Co. Ltd. Wu Chuanghui General Manager Aluminum, copper cathode Shanxi Zhaofeng Tiancheng Aluminum Co., Ltd. Shanxi Zhaofeng Tiancheng Aluminum Co., Ltd. Wu Xiaojun Chairman Aluminum plate/sheet and strip Jiangxi Bestoo Energy Co., Ltd. Jiangxi Bestoo Energy Co., ltd. Zhao Yonghua Vice President Aluminum Shaanxi Nonferrous Yulin New Materials Group Co., Ltd. Shaanxi Nonferrous Yulin New Materials Group Co., Ltd. Gao Wenjie Deputy General Manager Aluminum Shandong Nanshan Aluminum Co.,Ltd. Shandong Nanshan Aluminum Co.,Ltd. Li Wenchao General Manager Shanghai Russia Xibo Economic and Trade Co., Ltd. Shanghai Russia Xibo Economic and TradeCo..Ltd Deng Gang President of China Marketing Primary Aluminum Luoyang Xiangjiang Wanji Aluminium Co., Ltd. LUOYANG XIANGJIANG WANJI ALUMINIUM Wang Wenjie General Manager Alumina Shandong Aluminium Industry Association Shandong Aluminium Industry Association He Faping President and Secretary General Shandong Aluminium Industry Association Shandong Aluminium Industry Association Li Zhenlei Director of Industry Information Department Henan Provincial Nonferrous Metals Association Henan Provincel Nonferrous Metals Association Li Ruxi Vice President Shanghai Aluminum Trade Association SHANGHAI ALUMINUM TRADE ASSOCIATION Liu Lilin Secretary General Association Shanghai Aluminum Trade Association SHANGHAI ALUMINUM TRADE ASSOCIATION Shen Yue Deputy Secretary General Association Huolinguole City Aluminum Industry Association Huolinguole City Aluminum Industry Association Gao Jinzhi President, Deputy Director of Huolinguole Municipal People's Congress Standing Committee Huolinguole Regional Economic Cooperation Financial Services Center Huolinguole Regional EconomicCooperation Financial Services Center Wang Kaifei Director Wenshan Prefecture Aluminum Industry Association Wenshan Prefecture Aluminum IndustryAssociation TBD Association * Only a partial list of attending guests is shown. To obtain the complete directory of the 2025 Aluminum Industry Annual Conference, please contact our customer service. Manager Chu (Miya) 13642049827 chuzhaolan@smm.cn Note: After submitting your information, we will contact you regarding your actual registration progress within 1-3 business days! Conference Content | Agenda This year's conference is planned to consist of two full-day main sessions | a processing and trade matchmaking session | a cross-border arbitrage training session | a public competitive bidding procurement session for bulk raw materials by a multinational aluminum giant (the specific company name is not disclosed for now) | an aluminum industry annual gala dinner | and a field trip to local leading aluminum enterprises. The first-day main session focused on upstream changes in the aluminum industry, energy reshaping and zero-carbon technologies, providing insights into the new course of China's aluminum industry under global supply chain restructuring. The second-day core highlights revolved around strategic opportunities arising from the global aluminum supply gap, with a focus on NEV lightweighting, battery foil and other growth segments, while driving aluminum semis toward high-end breakthroughs through digital transformation. Pending. Content Summary | Abstract I. Geopolitical Black Swans and Energy Crisis: Contraction of Aluminum Supply Outside China and Restructuring of Global Trade Flows II. Shifts in the Global Bauxite Supply Chain: Guinea's Policies, Geopolitical Risks and China's Resource Security III. Inert Anode Technology: The "Zero-Carbon Revolution" in the Aluminum Industry and Industrialisation Timetable IV. Middle East Black Swans and China's Opportunities: Aluminum Semis Export Strategy Amid the Global Aluminum Supply Gap V. Reshaping Energy Costs in the Aluminum Industry: From "Securing Supply" to "Reducing Costs" VI. As Electricity Market Reform Deepens, How Much Room Remains for Low-Cost Power in the Aluminum Industry? VII. Lightweighting Applications of Aluminum Alloys Across All NEV Scenarios VIII. Growth Segments for Aluminum Plate/Sheet, Strip and Foil: Demand Explosion in Battery Foil, Energy Storage and Packaging Materials IX. AI Large Models Empowering Aluminum: From Intelligent Electrolysis Cells to Full-Process Digital Factories X. Implementation of Guinea's New Policies: How to Balance Long-Term Contract Supply Security and Localisation Considerations ······ Past Industry Leaders: Wen Xianjun, Former Vice President of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA) and Honorary President of Shandong Aluminium Industry Association; Mamadou Cherif LY, General Manager of AISC Group; Wito Krisnahad, President of PT Kalimantan Aluminum Company; Ousmane Kaba, Director of Guinea's National Ministry of Mines and Geology; Bachir Diallo, Deputy Director of Guinea's Mining Infrastructure Development Bureau; Dong Chunming, General Manager of Sunlight Metal/ASI Consultant; Wang Lijiao, Deputy General Manager of Henan Mingtai Aluminum Co., Ltd.; Liu Xiaolei, Big Data Director of SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd.··· *Only a partial list of guest speakers is shown. This year's conference is expected to feature 37+ presentation reports. If you have any questions about the specific arrangements and core content of the conference, please contact us. Contact: Chu Zhaolan Tel: 13642049827 (same number on WeChat) Email: chuzhaolan@smm.cn Conference Official Website Note: After submitting your information, we will contact you regarding your actual registration progress within 1-3 business days!

SMM May 15 News: In May 2026, the global molybdenum market remained in a persistently tight supply-demand pattern, with prices extending and accelerating the upward trend seen in April. International molybdenum oxide prices kept surging at high levels, while domestic molybdenum concentrate and ferromolybdenum prices repeatedly hit new stage highs.