Next week, due to the Qingming Festival in the Chinese market, SHFE will not conduct night session trading on the evening of April 3; outside China, due to Good Friday, exchanges including the LME will be closed for one day on April 3. In terms of macroeconomic data, key releases are expected to include China’s official manufacturing PMI for March, US ADP employment for March, US retail sales MoM for February, and US ISM manufacturing PMI for March. LME lead, current geopolitical tensions outside China remained prominent, shipping cycles lengthened, and crude oil prices rose, all of which had a significant impact on the base metal market. For lead, consumption in the Middle East was relatively stagnant, supply chains were disrupted, and transportation cycles for lead ingot and lead-acid batteries lengthened. Meanwhile, China’s lead ingot import arbitrage remained favorable, and overseas lead ingot continued to flow into the Chinese market. This week, LME lead ingot inventory fell by nearly 1 kt, and the LME Cash-3M contango narrowed to -$34.62/mt, providing support for lead prices. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,880-1,930/mt next week. SHFE lead, lead ingot inventory was destocked, including inventories at lead smelters and social warehouses, and lead prices showed signs of stabilizing after the decline. However, the lead ingot import window is currently open, while lead-acid batteries will enter the traditional off-season in April, limiting expectations for lead consumption. In addition, some secondary lead smelters recently resumed production and raised output, while new maintenance plans are also scheduled for April. With bullish and bearish factors coexisting in fundamentals, lead prices are expected to continue to fluctuate rangebound. If lead smelter maintenance is implemented as planned, lead prices may have a chance to rise relatively. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,300-16,700 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,250-16,550 yuan/mt. With the traditional off-season for lead-acid batteries approaching in April, downstream enterprises mostly maintained purchasing as needed, with limited procurement enthusiasm. Supply side, both primary lead and secondary lead enterprises saw output increases, and imported lead continued to flow into China, so spot lead premium trading may be difficult to sustain for long.

The European Union has officially approved a €390 million bridge loan to support the operational turnaround and environmental compliance of Italy's Acciaierie d'Italia (ADI), formerly known as Ilva. The massive Taranto steelworks is currently running at a critically low annual production capacity of 1.5 to 1.8 million metric tons, relying solely on Blast Furnace No. 4 while Blast Furnaces No. 1 and No. 2 remain idled for extraordinary maintenance. The newly secured state-backed funding is aimed at restarting these idled furnaces, restoring essential coke oven gas treatments, and stabilizing the employment of thousands of workers currently under an extended extraordinary layoff scheme

[Overnight, LME Aluminum and SHFE Aluminum Edged Up Slightly, but Aluminum Prices Faced Short-Term Pressure at High Levels] Continued destocking in LME inventory provided bottom support for LME aluminum, but amid tightening fund liquidity and profit-taking by bulls, upward momentum remained insufficient, and the backwardation structure weakened somewhat. China’s social inventory rose to a high for the same period in nearly five years, and the inventory buildup cycle had yet to end, with high inventory and weak spot fundamentals jointly weighing on upward momentum. The divergence between domestic and overseas drivers continued, the SHFE/LME price ratio kept weakening, and prices were mainly under pressure in the short term.

[Australian Typhoons Continued to Disrupt, and Import TCs Kept Falling]: Weekly data showed that the average weekly domestic SMM Zn50 TC held flat at 1,550 yuan/mt in metal content, while the SMM Imported Zinc Concentrate Index fell $6.02/dmt MoM to $5.23/dmt...

[Price Review] During the week, silver prices remained in the doldrums. In China, the Ag (T+D) contract on the Shanghai Gold Exchange broke below the support level of 18,000 yuan/kg, while LBMA silver prices kept probing lower after falling below $75/oz. From a macro perspective, escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices to repeated new highs, while intensifying inflation concerns significantly cooled expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and delayed the timing of the first cut to year-end. The simultaneous strength in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields became the core factors suppressing silver prices. On Wednesday local time, the US Fed announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged. In the statement released that day, it noted that the impact of the Middle East situation on the US economy remained uncertain and that uncertainty surrounding the US economic outlook was still elevated. In addition, speculative demand and ETF holdings continued to decline, and market sentiment kept cooling. As for the gold/silver ratio, because silver posted a deeper decline, the ratio continued to rise. As of March 18, the LBMA gold/silver ratio had climbed to 63, a recent high. [Important Data] Bullish: US preliminary March one-year inflation expectations came in at 3.4%, above expectations and unchanged from the previous reading Bearish: US API crude oil inventory for the week ended March 13 increased by 6.556 million barrels, above expectations and the previous reading US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ended March 13 increased by 6.156 million barrels, above expectations and the previous reading Data and macro releases to watch next week include: Continued hawkishness from the US Fed, the ECB rate decision, US inflation/employment data, COMEX silver delivery, together with the Boao Forum and geopolitical risks On March 19, the FOMC kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, raised its 2026 PCE forecast to 2.7%, and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts cooled sharply. US-Iran Situation: As of March 19, the military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran had entered their 19th day, with high-intensity confrontation, no sign of a ceasefire, and the conflict spreading to multiple Gulf countries. In terms of the current impact on precious metals, financial suppression outweighed safe-haven demand. Against the backdrop of surging inflation expectations, the US dollar and US Treasury yields continued to rise, the timing of US Fed interest rate cuts was delayed, and silver prices were suppressed. [Price Forecast] Silver prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the doldrums amid the interplay between macro disruptions and fundamentals. On the macro front, caution is still warranted over the risk of continued US dollar strength and heightened volatility from any further escalation in the US-Iran conflict. On the fundamentals side, as PV export rush orders gradually approached their end, rigid demand for raw material procurement by silver nitrate enterprises declined in late March, weakening support from industrial demand. In China's spot market, as investment demand and rigid industrial demand softened, coupled with replenishment from imported silver ingots, circulating supply of silver ingots in the spot market became ample, and suppliers generally lowered spot premium quotes to facilitate transactions. The abnormally high spot premiums in China's spot market will come to an end. At the same time, profitability on imported silver ingots will also decline sharply, and spot premium quotes in actual spot silver ingot transactions are expected to return to rational levels.

[Macro Pressures Combined With High Inventory, SHFE Aluminum Remained Under Pressure at Elevated Levels in the Short Term] Continued destocking in LME inventory provided bottom support for LME aluminum, but amid tightening fund liquidity and profit-taking by bulls, upward momentum was insufficient, and the backwardation structure weakened somewhat. In China, social inventory rose to a high for the same period in nearly five years, and the inventory buildup cycle had not ended. High inventory and weak spot fundamentals jointly weighed on upward momentum. The divergence between domestic and overseas drivers continued, the SHFE/LME price ratio kept weakening, and SHFE aluminum fell below the key threshold of 25,000 yuan/mt, remaining mainly under pressure at elevated levels in the short term.

This week, the center of nickel prices moved lower WoW, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract fluctuating within 132,000-140,000 yuan/mt. Early in the week, it fell below the 135,000 yuan mark amid weaker macro sentiment, but in the latter part of the week, rumors of maintenance at HPAL projects provided strong support around 133,000 yuan, and prices eventually returned to fluctuate around 137,000 yuan/mt. As of Friday's close, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract rose 0.14% WoW, while LME nickel gained 0.06% WoW. In the spot market, the average SMM #1 refined nickel price was 140,510 yuan/mt this week, up 850 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 6,800 yuan/mt this week, down 100 yuan/mt WoW, while premiums for mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China ranged from -300 to 400 yuan/mt. Overall spot transactions were mediocre this week. On the macro front, geopolitical risks escalated markedly this week. In his first statement after taking office, Iran's new supreme leader said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed and that a new front would be opened if necessary. US ADP employment increased by 63,000 in February, above market expectations. As a result, the US dollar index strengthened, putting pressure on non-ferrous metal prices. Pan Gongsheng, governor of China's central bank, said the next step would be to build a scientific and prudent monetary policy framework, continue to effectively implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, and strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments. Inventory side, inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Zone was about 2,200 mt this week, flat WoW. China's social inventory was about 87,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 3,000 mt WoW. In Indonesia's Morowali region, some HPAL plants cut production due to tailings accidents. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East raised the risk of sulfur supply disruptions, and the market expected future MHP intermediate product supply to be tight, with strong willingness to hold prices firm, which would provide some cost support for nickel prices. However, the area above 140,000 yuan/mt still faced strong resistance from high inventory and weak demand. The core trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract next week is expected to be 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt.

[Supply Disruptions Persist, Imported TCs Continued to Decline]: Weekly data showed that the average weekly TC of SMM Zn50 domestic ore was unchanged at 1,550 yuan/mt in metal content, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index fell $4.13/dmt MoM to $11.25/dmt...

Entering the Emergency Command and Production Monitoring Center at the headquarters of Shaanxi Nonferrous Metals Group, one saw data converging like streams on a giant LCD screen: robotic arms in the titanium processing workshop were moving with precision, and the current parameters of the aluminum electrolysis cells were fluctuating in real time... The production and operational status of more than a dozen subsidiaries, spanning hundreds of kilometers, was condensed into a limited space and transformed into vivid strings of numbers. “In the past, dispatching relied on phone calls, inspections relied on walking, and emergency response took at least two hours; now, with a click of the mouse, real-time conditions at the site are instantly displayed. We no longer depend on verbal descriptions from personnel, the scenarios are more realistic, command is more precise, and contingency plans can be activated within minutes.” The words of the person in charge of the Enterprise Management and Operations Information Department of Shaanxi Nonferrous Metals Group conveyed a sense of composure and confidence. That composure stemmed from a profound digital transformation. In 2025, Shaanxi Nonferrous Metals Group fully launched its “Year for Enhancing Digitalized Management and Control,” placing information technology development at the core of efforts to drive high-quality transformation and upgrading. Over the past year, with the overall objective of “vertical integration, horizontal connectivity, real-time online operations, coordinated action across all levels, and precise, effective execution,” Shaanxi Nonferrous Metals Group systematically advanced work across multiple dimensions, including business process reengineering, information system integration, and unified data standards, gradually building a digital system covering all areas of business operation and management, and injecting strong momentum into the enterprise’s modern governance and industrial upgrading. Top-Level Planning Seeing One Blueprint Through to the End In 2025, the information technology work of Shaanxi Nonferrous Metals Group closely focused on the annual goal of “initial visible results” in high-quality transformation and upgrading, serving the development of a modern industrial system and governance system. By building a management and control business system featuring “vertical integration and horizontal connectivity,” it established three major implementation paths: first, comprehensively reviewing and redesigning business processes to achieve standardized management; second, joining forces with leading technology companies in the industry to build a vertically integrated management and control system spanning all levels of the group; and third, unifying the standards and coding for eight categories of master data, including organization, personnel, materials, and accounting subjects, breaking through horizontal business barriers and focusing on in-depth digital development in key business areas such as investment, procurement, safety, finance, human resources, and Party building. To ensure effective implementation, Shaanxi Nonferrous Metals Group innovatively established a promotion mechanism featuring “three meetings, three lists, and three services.” It strengthened overall planning and coordination through the monthly meeting of the information technology leadership group, special project meetings, and work promotion meetings; relied on demand, project, and progress lists to achieve refined and period-based management; and ensured the solid implementation and sustained operation of information technology projects through full-cycle services covering consulting, development, and operations and maintenance. Building on Systems Constructing a Solid “Digital Tower” Shaanxi Nonferrous Metals Group used a major push in digital and intelligent transformation and upgrading to strengthen the foundation of its industrial reform and transformation, focusing on building a “big digital intelligence” empowerment system and using new models, new business forms, and new tools to amplify reform results. Consolidate the digital foundation. Strengthen digital infrastructure development across all industry chain clusters and all affiliated enterprises, accelerate the enhancement of data collection, processing, management, and application capabilities across the entire industry chain of “exploration, research, construction; mining, beneficiation, smelting; materials, equipment, trade,” and build a solid foundation for digital transformation. Focus on building a robust and reliable digital foundation and establish the overall “5 Ones + N” information architecture: “one foundation,” the Shaanxi Nonferrous enterprise cloud platform and a high-speed broadband network covering the Group’s information applications; “one platform,” a digital empowerment platform; “one portal,” the Group’s unified portal (external portal + internal portal); “one safeguard,” an information security and operations and maintenance support system; “one standard,” a standards and specifications system; and “N applications,” N business application systems covering the three levels of strategic decision-making, business management, and production operations. Improve data connectivity. Build a network interconnection environment and data flow mechanism covering all affiliated enterprises, accelerate information interconnection and computing power support, break down “data silos” across different links such as R&D, production, management, and marketing, and improve the level of internal business data integration and collaboration across the entire system. Through five major measures, including strict implementation of the “top leader accountability system,” the use of domestically developed and controllable products for basic software and hardware, PTN dedicated lines plus zero-trust technology to provide data exchange channels, the implementation of classified cybersecurity protection assessments for important information systems, and regular attack-and-defense drills, Shaanxi Nonferrous Metals Group built a multi-dimensional cybersecurity defense line to firmly safeguard the enterprise’s digital assets. At the same time, guided by the core objectives of “unified standards, unified platform, unified interfaces, and unified operations and maintenance,” supported by three major systems—the master data standards system, master data management system, and master data integration system—and carried by one intelligent master data management platform, it established a “1+3+1” data resource management system to achieve the aggregation, governance, and value mining of dispersed data. Strengthen intelligent integration. Focus on all links of “exploration, design, mining, ore dressing, smelting, processing, and trade,” vigorously advance the development of digital and intelligent demonstration scenarios, and build demonstration projects for advanced green digital and intelligent technologies. Centered on the entire value chain, all asset elements, and the full life cycle, make every effort to build an intelligent collaboration platform to support high-end upgrading, underpin green development, ensure production safety, and achieve efficient operations. Breakthroughs on Multiple Fronts Key Projects Demonstrate Digital Results The implementation of a series of key projects has become vivid testimony to the transformation and upgrading of Shaanxi Nonferrous Metals Group. Party-building informatization turned “soft tasks” into “hard indicators.” In response to the characteristics of primary-level Party organizations being “numerous in points, extended in lines, and broad in coverage,” the “Nonferrous Pioneer” Party-building informatization platform launched in 2025 integrated big data and artificial intelligence technologies to build a management matrix covering 6 major modules, 35 core businesses, and 80 detailed items, moving Party-building work from “paper” to “online.”Since the platform began operation, the efficiency of Party affairs processing has increased by 80, the incidence of overdue tasks has fallen by more than 50, the error rate in manual reporting has decreased by 80, and work traceability has achieved 100 digital coverage. By transforming Party-building assessment indicators into value-output dimensions such as strategic enforcement and risk prevention and control capability, a closed-loop mechanism of “push-execute-supervise-feedback” has been established, enabling deep integration between Party-building work and production and operations, with visible data and tangible results. Human Resources Informatization, Unlocking the Potential of the “Primary Resource.” Human resources informatization has entered a new stage of process-based and collaborative management, realizing full-process online and standardized management across organization management, personnel management, compensation and benefits, and performance management. It has not only addressed the problems of low efficiency and long processing times for procedures such as onboarding, confirmation of employment, job transfer, and resignation, but also resolved pain points such as non-standard approvals, inconsistent policy enforcement, and error-prone data verification. The effectiveness of operations management, compliance management, and data management has been improved in parallel, making human resources a true core driver of enterprise development. Financial Informatization, Building a Strong “Embankment” for Risk Prevention and Control. By implementing a decentralized, penetrative, group-wide financial control model, Shaanxi Nonferrous Metals Group established a three-in-one risk prevention system covering “operational risk-business risk-financial risk,” achieving end-to-end penetrative management “from business to statements, and from statements to funds,” and providing intelligent decision-making support throughout the full cycle of “post-event review-in-process optimization-pre-event predictive simulation.” The finance-supply chain integration project launched in January 2026 will further connect key links such as procurement, accounting, and capital, providing real-time and accurate data support for decision-making. Safety and Environmental Protection Informatization, Building a “Dual Line of Defense” Through Whole-Chain Intelligent Control. Taking the development of safety and environmental protection informatization as a starting point, Shaanxi Nonferrous Metals Group continuously deepened its intelligent monitoring and early warning capabilities and accelerated the construction of a whole-chain, visualized intelligent safety and environmental protection control system, thereby reinforcing the safety foundation for high-quality transformation and upgrading. Deepening intelligent monitoring to improve the precision of early warning. After the Group’s dual-prevention informatization platform went online, it established three-dimensional data coordinate models for major hazard sources such as mines, tailings ponds, and hazardous chemicals, accurately mapped key risk monitoring points onto the models, and visually presented hidden disaster-causing factors, thereby enabling intelligent risk analysis, assessment, and early warning. At the same time, it comprehensively promoted an informatized management platform for hazard identification and rectification, achieving full-process closed-loop management of issues and hazards from discovery and rectification to closure through real-time entry, dynamic updating, and whole-process tracking, and strictly preventing “omitted hazards and delayed rectification.” Strengthening process control to reinforce the on-site safety line of defense. Tianhong Ruike, through linkage with the digital dual-prevention system, achieved precise positioning of workers, real-time risk monitoring, and intelligent early warning, building a visualized safety assurance system deeply integrating “human-based prevention + technology-based prevention,” and driving on-site safety management from “passive response” to “proactive prevention.”Empowering outsourced operations oversight to achieve penetrative management. Relying on its safety and environmental protection information management and control platform and the Safety Assistant app, the Smelting Branch of Jinduicheng Molybdenum Group has established a model of “full-process online supervision + dynamic data empowerment” for contractors, enabling real-time tracking and closed-loop management across multiple links, and advancing outsourced operations oversight from “blurred control” to “precise penetration,” with both the penetrative strength and timeliness of supervision improved in tandem. In addition, a number of key projects, including the private cloud platform, the group-wide backbone network, and the electronic tendering and procurement platform, were completed and put into operation one after another, playing an important role in improving resource utilization rates, ensuring safety and compliance, and strengthening risk prevention and control. The outline of “Digital Nonferrous” is becoming increasingly clear. Intelligence Ushers In the Future Embarking on a New Journey Toward “AI+” Looking ahead to the 15th Five-Year Plan period, Shaanxi Nonferrous Metals Group’s information technology development will deepen the transformation toward “penetrative” management, use the “AI+” initiative as a key driver, and promote the intelligent upgrading of the traditional “mining, beneficiation, smelting, and processing” industries. Adhering to the approach of “building benchmarks, focusing on exemplars, and leading through demonstration,” the group will advance, in a coordinated and step-by-step manner, the full-chain work of “construction, trial operation, and acceptance” for more than 20 information technology projects currently under implementation. It will create typical application scenarios in fields such as mine exploration, mining and beneficiation, metal smelting, processing and manufacturing, and design and construction, so as to drive quality improvement and efficiency gains across the entire industrial chain from key points to the broader whole, and inject new vitality into traditional industries. Starting from applications in production scenarios, it will also build foundational computing power platforms in parallel, and gradually establish a working path for the fine-tuning and deployment of industry-specific large models. Ultimately, it will realize a shift from “experience-driven” to “data- and AI-driven,” move from single-point breakthroughs to system-wide empowerment, advance the intelligent upgrading of industry, and comprehensively enhance enterprises’ core competitiveness in such areas as resource security, production efficiency, cost control, green development, and decision-making capability. The surging tide spurs us forward, and the wind is just right for setting sail. Shaanxi Nonferrous Metals Group will take information technology and intelligent technology as its oars, lead with innovation, strive for excellence through solid work, ride the waves on the voyage toward high-quality transformation and upgrading and tangible improvement in quality and performance, and press ahead at full speed toward the goal of building a world-class enterprise.

SMM Nickel News, March 9: Macro and Market Updates: (1) US nonfarm payrolls in February unexpectedly fell by 92,000, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.4%. Nonfarm payrolls for December last year and January this year were revised down by a combined 69,000. After the data release, the implied probability of a US Fed interest rate cut in June quickly rose to about 50% (2) Minister of Finance Lan Fo’an said at an economy-themed press conference on the 6th that this year’s fiscal funding arrangements hit “new highs” in three areas; fiscal policy in 2026 will continue to maintain a more proactive stance; the central government will allocate 100 billion yuan to support fiscal-financial coordination to boost domestic demand; innovative policy tools for fiscal-financial coordination to boost domestic demand will be established, focusing on two key areas: household consumption and private investment; special funds for fiscal-financial coordination to boost domestic demand at the 100-billion-yuan level can benefit credit at the trillion-yuan level. Spot Market: On March 9, the SMM #1 refined nickel price fell by 1,600 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 7,250 yuan/mt, up 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: After the morning open, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) plunged immediately, hitting a low of 132,000 yuan/mt, then rebounded sharply. As of the morning close, it was at 137,380 yuan/mt, up 0.47%. A stronger US dollar index, coupled with risk-off sentiment triggered by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, weighed on base metal prices. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract price is expected to move sideways within 130,000-140,000 yuan/mt.