[SMM Hot Topic: From "Scale" to "Quality" – The Shift and Restructuring of Traditional Construction Steel Demand] From 2026 to 2030, the domestic demographic dividend will gradually shrink, and the era of rapid growth in the real estate industry will come to an end, with the industry's development logic shifting from scale expansion to quality improvement.

Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and director of the NBS's Department of Comprehensive Statistics of National Economy, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that China's economy operated generally smoothly in May, with some indicators continuing to improve, new growth momentum expanding, and the trend of high-quality development persisting, demonstrating the strong resilience and vitality of China's economy. In May, influenced by factors such as the trade-in policy for consumer goods, market sales growth accelerated. Total retail sales of social consumer goods in May were up 6.4% YoY, with the growth rate accelerating by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. From January to May, service retail sales grew by 5.2%, accelerating by 0.1 percentage points compared to the period from January to April. The acceleration of consumption growth, particularly the expansion of service consumption, is also evident in its boost to related service industries. In May, the production index growth rates of the wholesale and retail industries, as well as the accommodation and catering industries, all accelerated compared to the previous month. Meanwhile, new growth drivers such as high-end manufacturing, the digital economy, and the new energy industry continued to expand, effectively promoting industrial transformation and the stable operation of the economy.

SMM News on June 16: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE copper, SHFE lead, and SHFE tin all rose, with SHFE copper up 0.19% to lead the gains, while SHFE zinc fell 0.5% to lead the losses. The % changes of the remaining metals fluctuated slightly. The main alumina contract fell 0.73%, while the main casting aluminum contract rose 0.31%. In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract fell 0.7%, the main silicon metal contract rose 0.41%, the main polysilicon contract rose 1.93%, and the main European container shipping contract fell 4.04%. The ferrous metals series rose collectively. Rebar rose 0.98%, HRC rose 1.07%. In the coking coal and coke segment, coking coal rose 2.84%, and coke rose 1.9%. In the overseas market, as of 15:03, overseas market base metals generally rose, with only LME aluminum and LME tin falling. LME tin fell 0.24%, LME aluminum fell 0.04%, and LME zinc rose 0.53%. The remaining metals all rose slightly. In the precious metals segment, as of 15:03, COMEX gold fell 0.47%, and COMEX silver rose 0.48%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.08%, and SHFE silver rose 0.45%. Market conditions as of 15:03 today 》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic Aspect: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Industrial Added Value Above Designated Size Grew 5.8% in May, with the National Economy Generally Stable and Making Steady Progress] The NBS showed that in May, the industrial added value above designated size actually increased by 5.8% YoY. On a MoM basis, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 0.61% compared to the previous month. From January to May, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.3% YoY. By industry, in May, 35 out of 41 major industry categories maintained YoY growth in added value. Among them, the coal mining and washing industry grew by 5.5%, the oil and natural gas extraction industry grew by 5.3%, the agricultural and sideline food processing industry grew by 7.6%, the liquor, beverage, and refined tea manufacturing industry grew by 4.1%, the textile industry grew by 0.6%, the chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing industry grew by 5.9%, the non-metallic mineral products industry fell by 0.6%, the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry grew by 4.8%, the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry grew by 8.1%, the general equipment manufacturing industry grew by 6.3%, the special equipment manufacturing industry grew by 2.3%, the automobile manufacturing industry grew by 11.6%, the railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry grew by 14.6%, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry grew by 11.0%, the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry grew by 10.2%, and the electric power, heat production, and supply industry grew by 2.0%. Overall, in May, as the combined effects of policies continued to unfold, the effects of stabilizing the economy and promoting development became evident. The national economy maintained a generally stable development trend with steady progress, fully demonstrating the resilience and vitality of China's economy. However, it should also be noted that there are many external uncertainties and destabilizing factors, and the endogenous momentum for expanding domestic demand still needs to be strengthened. The foundation for sustained economic rebound and improvement still needs to be consolidated. 》Click to view details [NBS: The real estate market continues to move towards stabilization and recovery] Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and director of the NBS's Department of Comprehensive Statistics of National Economy, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that since the beginning of this year, China has implemented more proactive macro policies, increased counter-cyclical adjustments, and accelerated the implementation of major national strategies and the development of security capabilities in key areas ("two major" policies) as well as the program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins ("two new" policies). These efforts have effectively enhanced the vitality of consumption, driven production growth, and promoted transformation and upgrading, fully demonstrating the important role of macro policies in stabilizing economic operations. In the next stage, China has sufficient reserves in its policy toolbox, and macro policies have room for maneuver. They can be dynamically adjusted and actively responded to according to changes in the situation, and will continue to safeguard the stable operation of the economy. Fu Linghui stated that since the beginning of this year, with the accelerated implementation of various policies to stabilize the real estate market, the market has continued to move towards stabilization and recovery. Judging from the situation in May, the operation of the real estate market was generally stable. The YoY decline in housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to narrow, and the inventory of commercial housing continued to decrease. From the perspective of market transactions, under the influence of various policies to stabilize the real estate market, real estate sales remained basically stable. From January to May, the sales area and sales volume of newly-built commercial housing decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% YoY respectively, basically flat with the figures from January to April. Market transactions in some first-tier and second-tier cities were relatively active, with the sales area and sales volume of commercial housing maintaining growth. From the perspective of market prices, the YoY decline in newly-built commercial residential housing continued to narrow. From the perspective of commercial housing inventory, the area of commercial housing pending sale in May decreased by 7.15 million m² compared to the end of April, marking a decrease for three consecutive months. Fu Linghui emphasized that overall, the policies to promote the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market have continued to show effects, and the operation of the real estate market was generally stable in May. However, it should be noted that the real estate market is still in the process of adjustment. Market confidence still needs to be continuously restored, and the supply-demand relationship in the market still needs to be improved. Continuous efforts are still needed to promote the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market. 》Click to view details ► On June 16, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was 7.1789 yuan per US dollar. US dollar: As of 15:03, the US dollar index fell by 0.08% to 98.04. This week marks a "super central bank week," with attention focused on the US Fed's statements regarding inflation and monetary policy in the second half of the year. The University of Michigan's US consumer sentiment index for June rose to 60.5, compared with a forecast of 53.5. Consumers' 12-month inflation expectations fell to 5.1%. Long-term inflation expectations declined to 4.1%. As Sino-US trade tensions eased, US consumer confidence improved for the first time in six months, though households remained concerned about the trajectory of the economy. Despite widespread expectations that the US Fed would keep interest rates stable, the market eagerly anticipated signals of possible interest rate cuts in the coming months. Macro: Today, data such as the eurozone's total reserve assets in May, the US New York Fed's manufacturing index for June, and the US New York Fed's manufacturing index for the next six months' expectations in June will be released. In addition, the US New York Fed's manufacturing index for the next six months' expectations in June. Crude oil: As of 15:03, oil prices in both markets rose simultaneously, with US oil up 0.74% and Brent oil up 0.55%. On Friday, prices surged 7% as renewed tensions in the Middle East heightened fears that geopolitical conflicts could spread across the region and severely disrupt oil exports from the Middle East. It is understood that the latest developments have heightened concerns about potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane. Approximately one-fifth of global oil consumption, or around 18-19 million barrels per day of oil, condensate, and fuel oil, passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Most of the crude oil and refined product exports from OPEC members Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran transit through the Strait of Hormuz, with few viable alternative routes. Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities, said, "Buying is driven by the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, with no signs of resolution in sight. However, as seen on Friday, there has been some selling due to concerns about overreaction." Tazawa added that the market is monitoring potential disruptions to Iran's oil production from Israeli strikes on energy facilities, while heightened concerns about disruptions to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could significantly boost oil prices. Iran, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), currently produces around 3.3 million barrels of oil per day and exports over 2 million barrels of crude oil and fuel. So far, Israeli attacks on Iran's oil and natural gas infrastructure have not affected production or exports from the region. However, concerns persist that Israel could destroy Iran's oil facilities, depriving it of a major source of revenue and driving up oil prices. Analysts and OPEC observers say that the idle oil production capacity that OPEC and its allies, including Russia, have increased to offset any disruptions is roughly equivalent to Iran's production. (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review ► Inventory buildup of high-grade NPI continues, short-term market focus may dip again [NPI Daily Review] ► [SMM MHP Daily Review] On June 16, MHP prices in Indonesia edged lower ► [SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] On June 16, nickel salt prices remained stable

As 2025 approaches the mid-year mark, announcements regarding the "suspension of vehicle trade-in subsidy application processing" have been issued in multiple regions. This sudden development has sparked widespread concern among consumers who are holding onto their money, waiting to make purchases. On June 11, the Shenyang Municipal Bureau of Commerce issued the "Announcement on Adjusting Some Consumer Goods Trade-in Activities," stating that starting from 24:00 on June 30, five activities would be suspended: trade-in of home appliances, purchase subsidies for new mobile phones, tablets, and smart watches (bands), "renovation" of home decoration and kitchen/bathroom products (home and home decoration products under the responsibility of the Municipal Bureau of Commerce), trade-in of e-bikes, and vehicle trade-in and renewal. The resumption of these activities will be announced separately. On the same day that Shenyang announced the suspension of vehicle trade-in subsidies, the Department of Commerce of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region issued an announcement stating that the subsidy funds for consumer goods trade-in in the autonomous region's commerce sector for 2025 were about to be exhausted. "After deliberation, it has been decided that the autonomous region's vehicle scrappage and renewal policy will continue to be implemented. However, the subsidy policies for vehicle trade-in and renewal, trade-in of home appliances, purchase of new mobile phones, tablets, and smart watches (bands), trade-in of e-bikes, and "renovation" of home decoration and kitchen/bathroom products will be suspended starting from 24:00 on June 15." The day before, the "Announcement on Suspending the Application for Subsidy Eligibility Vouchers for Trade-in of Consumer Goods in Zhengzhou City for 2025" appeared on the website of the Zhengzhou Municipal Bureau of Commerce. The announcement mentioned that the subsidy funds for this round of home appliances in Zhengzhou had been exhausted. In accordance with the principle of "first-come, first-served, until funds are depleted," the application for subsidy eligibility vouchers for trade-in of consumer goods and home appliances for 2025 would be suspended starting from 12:00 on June 11. Consumers who had already received subsidy eligibility vouchers for home appliances on June 11 could still participate in the home appliance subsidy activities normally on that day. Subsequent activities would be launched and announced separately in a timely manner based on adjustments to relevant policies and funding arrangements in our province. On the same day, the Luoyang Municipal Bureau of Commerce issued the "Announcement on Suspending the Acceptance of Applications for Vehicle Trade-in and Renewal Subsidies in Luoyang City for 2025." "The principle of 'first-come, first-served, until funds are depleted' has already been stated in the previously issued policies. The policies will only remain effective until the end of the year if the funds are not exhausted," an office staff member from the Zhengzhou Municipal Bureau of Commerce told a reporter from Cailian Press. The subsequent development remains uncertain. If new policies are introduced by relevant departments and funds are replenished, the vehicle trade-in subsidy policy may continue to be implemented. "Actually, a similar situation occurred last year as well." Regarding the next steps, the staff member suggested consulting the business department of the Zhengzhou Municipal Bureau of Commerce. However, as of the time of reporting, the reporter was unable to reach the relevant business department by phone. According to incomplete statistics by Cailian Press reporters, as of now, nearly ten regions have suspended applications for vehicle trade-in subsidies. In addition to the aforementioned regions, these also include Chongqing, Xuchang, Huizhou, and Suzhou District of Jiuquan City. The reasons include the exhaustion of funds, system upgrades, and the upcoming opening of a new round of subsidies. The Chongqing Municipal Commission of Commerce stated on its official website in response to citizens' inquiries that it was drafting the second phase of the trade-in subsidy policy. A relevant official from the Department of Commerce of Guangdong Province responded that Guangdong would not end the trade-in policy ahead of schedule, while also noting that the temporary suspension of voucher distribution in some cities was due to system upgrades and periodic inventory checks. "Judging from the situation in multiple regions, the trade-in subsidy policy has had a significant stimulating effect on the automotive market, with consumers showing high levels of participation," an industry insider analyzed. The latest data from the Ministry of Commerce showed that as of May 31, the five major categories of consumer goods trade-ins had collectively driven sales of 1.1 trillion yuan this year, with approximately 175 million subsidies distributed directly to consumers. Among these, the number of applications for automotive trade-in subsidies reached 4.12 million. "China's economy has maintained steady growth overall, with the economic operation showing new and positive trends, the domestic demand space continuously expanding, and the external demand market becoming more diversified," the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) stated on June 11. Since the beginning of this year, "the program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins has been expanded and intensified, continuing to show its effectiveness. Coupled with favorable factors such as the launch of new products by automakers and sales promotions at auto shows in multiple regions, it has helped accelerate the release of consumption vitality in the automotive market. 'In May, the automotive market continued its positive momentum, with production and sales achieving growth of over 10% compared to the same period last year, and both domestic demand and exports showing good performance,'" CAAM said.

SMM, June 3: ※Financial Market Performance During the Holiday Metal Market: Domestic Metal Market: The domestic metal market was closed during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. A review of the market performance of domestic base metals on May 30 shows that most domestic metals fell: Domestic base metals generally declined, with SHFE nickel rising 1.14%, SHFE tin falling 2.87%, and SHFE copper, SHFE aluminum, SHFE lead, and SHFE zinc all falling less than 1%. The main alumina contract rose 0.27%. Most ferrous metals series declined on May 30: Iron ore fell 0.43%, rebar fell 0.34%, stainless steel rose 0.12%, and HRC fell 0.81%. In terms of coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 5.28%, and coke fell 2.13%. Overseas Metal Market: The London Metal Exchange (LME) mostly fell on May 30 and rose across the board on June 2. During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, LME metals rose across the board, with LME zinc leading the gains with a 2.41% increase, LME copper rising 1.24%, LME aluminum rising 1%, LME tin and LME nickel both rising over 1%, and LME lead rising 0.87%. Precious Metals: During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, COMEX precious metals all rose sharply. COMEX gold rose 2.82%, touching its highest level in over three weeks, as a weaker US dollar and economic uncertainty drove demand for safe-haven assets. COMEX silver rose 5.61%. Hong Kong Stocks: During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, Hong Kong stocks weakened on June 2 as tariff issues once again drew market attention. As of the close on June 2, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.57%, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.7%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.86%. US Stocks: During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the three major US stock indices closed mixed last Friday, with the Dow rising 0.12% and gaining 3.94% in May; the Nasdaq falling 0.32% but rising 9.56% in May; and the S&P 500 falling 0.01% but rising 6.15% in May. As of the close on June 2, the three major US stock indices all rose slightly, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.08% to 42,305.48 points, the S&P 500 rising 0.41% to 5,935.94 points, and the Nasdaq rising 0.67% to 19,242.61 points. Metal and Crude Oil Contract Quotes as of 8:20 on June 3 》SMM Metal Spot Prices on May 30 Macro Aspects Domestic Aspects: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): PMI for May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points MoM, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment] On May 31, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the Service Industry Survey Center of the NBS announced China's PMI for May. Among them, the manufacturing PMI rebounded MoM, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing sector's prosperity level and a stabilization in economic operations. In May, China's manufacturing PMI stood at 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points MoM. Looking at the sub-indices, the production index was 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points MoM, rising above the critical point, suggesting an acceleration in manufacturing production activities. On the demand side, the new orders index in May was 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points MoM. 》Click to view details [This year's sales of consumer goods through trade-in policies have exceeded 1 trillion yuan] According to CCTV News reporters who learned from the Ministry of Commerce, as of now, this year's sales of consumer goods through trade-in policies have exceeded 1 trillion yuan. Since the beginning of this year, the trade-in policies for consumer goods have effectively driven a sustained rebound and improvement in consumption. Ministry of Commerce data shows that as of May 31, the five major categories of consumer goods under the trade-in policies have collectively driven sales of 1.1 trillion yuan, with approximately 175 million subsidies directly issued to consumers. Among them, there were 4.12 million applications for trade-in subsidies for automobiles; 49.863 million consumers purchased 77.618 million units of 12 major categories of home appliances; 53.529 million consumers purchased 56.629 million units of digital products such as mobile phones; 6.5 million e-bikes were traded in; and 57.626 million orders were placed for home renovation and kitchen and bathroom "upgrades". (CCTV News) [Various regions take multiple measures to strictly prevent the illegal outflow of strategic minerals] Multiple regions across the country have taken various measures and strengthened controls to strictly prevent the illegal outflow of strategic minerals. Among them, the "Overall Deployment for Strengthening the Full-Chain Management and Control of Strategic Mineral Exports" by the National Office for Coordination of Export Control Work was issued and implemented after approval in accordance with procedures. Guizhou will strictly adhere to the division of responsibilities outlined in the "Overall Deployment" to carry out relevant work. The relevant competent authorities in Hunan Province have stated that they will earnestly fulfill their local regulatory responsibilities, systematically investigate and establish ledgers for strategic mineral export enterprises in Hunan, guide enterprises in strengthening the construction of compliance systems, enhance enterprises' awareness and capabilities of compliance, and ensure the effective implementation of control measures. Guangxi, on the other hand, will continue to effectively supervise and manage the exploration and mining of national strategic minerals, increase efforts to investigate and punish illegal mining activities such as mining without licenses, mining beyond boundaries, and mining under the guise of exploration, and resolutely prevent the illegal outflow of strategically important minerals through illegal mining. Among them, Wuzhou City in Guangxi and Yunfu City in Guangdong have established a cross-regional cooperation mechanism to combat and rectify illegal activities related to mineral resources. In addition, relevant departments in Jiangxi and Yunnan have also stated that they will unwaveringly implement all tasks in accordance with their respective responsibilities. [MIIT: Intensify Efforts to Rectify "Cut-throat Competition" in the Automotive Industry] In response to the "Initiative on Maintaining Fair Competition Order and Promoting Healthy Industry Development" issued by the China Automobile Manufacturers Association (CAAM) on May 31, relevant officials from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) stated that they would intensify efforts to rectify "cut-throat competition" in the automotive industry and resolutely maintain a fair and orderly market environment. [Opposing "Cut-throat Competition" CAAM Issues Important Initiative] CAAM issued the "Initiative on Maintaining Fair Competition Order and Promoting Healthy Industry Development." In recent years, China's new energy vehicle (NEV) industry has developed rapidly, with the proportion of new NEV sales exceeding 40%. Currently, the overall operation of the industry is showing a steady and improving trend, with market vitality continuing to be released. However, we have also observed that for some time, the industry's profitability has declined. "Cut-throat competition," primarily manifested as disorderly "price wars," is a significant factor contributing to the decline in industry benefits. Continuous investment is needed in product after-sales service guarantees and enterprise innovation and development, while "price wars" seriously affect the normal operations of enterprises, impact the security of the industry chain and supply chain, and drive the industry into a vicious cycle. US Dollar Aspect: During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the US dollar index fell by 0.75%, closing at 98.69 as of June 2. New US tariff threats have sparked market concerns about economic uncertainty, putting pressure on the US dollar. According to CCTV News, on May 30 local time, US President Trump stated at a rally in Pennsylvania that he would raise tariffs on imported steel from 25% to 50%. Subsequently, Trump posted on social media platforms that the decision would take effect from June 4. The latest data released by the US shows: The US core PCE price index in April rose 2.5% YoY, the lowest since March 2021, in line with market expectations of 2.5% and down from the previous value of 2.6%. The US core PCE price index in April rose 0.1% MoM, in line with the estimated increase of 0.1% and up from the previous value of 0%. The final S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for May was 52, below the expected 52.3 and unchanged from the previous value of 52.3. The market is also closely monitoring the speeches of Fed Chairman Powell and other policymakers this week, seeking clues about the path of US interest rates. Other Currency Aspects: The European Central Bank's (ECB) 25 basis point interest rate cut has been fully priced in by the market and widely anticipated. The final manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the Eurozone was in line with expectations at 49.4, slightly below expectations in Germany at 48.3, and slightly above expectations in France at 49.8. This week, the focus of eurozone data will be on the preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Tuesday, with overall and core inflation rates expected to fall to 2.0% and 2.4%, respectively. Thursday's European Central Bank (ECB) meeting is crucial as policymakers will release new forecasts and provide some insights into interest rate expectations. The market has fully priced in a 25-basis-point interest rate cut and expects at least another 25-basis-point cut by December. The risk lies in that a neutral or hawkish interest rate cut may signal the end of the current easing cycle. (Huitong Finance) Macro Aspects: This week will also see the release of data including Malaysia's manufacturing PMI for May, Australia's current account for Q1, China's Caixin manufacturing PMI for May, Switzerland's annual CPI rate for May, the eurozone's preliminary unadjusted annual harmonized CPI for May, the eurozone's unemployment rate for April, the revised monthly rate of US durable goods orders for April, the monthly rate of US factory orders for April, US JOLTs job openings for April, Australia's AIG manufacturing performance index for May, Australia's seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP growth rate for Q1, Australia's annual GDP growth rate for Q1, Russia's SPGI services PMI for May, the final UK SPGI services PMI for May, the change in US ADP employment for May, Canada's total reserve assets for May, Brazil's seasonally adjusted SPGI services PMI for May, the Bank of Canada's overnight lending rate on June 5, the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI for May, a Q&A session involving 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, and Fed Governor Lisa Cook attending the "Fed Listens" event, the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision, the global annual ANZ commodity price index for May, Australia's goods and services trade balance for April, Australia's monthly export growth rate for April, Australia's monthly import growth rate for April, China's Caixin services PMI for May, Switzerland's unadjusted unemployment rate for May, the global leading indicator for turning points in the industrial production cycle for May (irregular), the number of job cuts announced by US Challenger companies for May, the ECB's main refinancing rate for June, the ECB's deposit facility rate for June, the ECB's marginal lending facility rate for June, the US trade balance for April, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 31, the number of continuing jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 31, Canada's trade balance for April, Canada's seasonally adjusted IVEY PMI for May, the global supply chain pressure index for May, Germany's seasonally adjusted monthly industrial output growth rate for April, France's trade balance for April, the final seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP growth rate for the eurozone in Q1, the monthly retail sales growth rate for the eurozone in April, the monthly leading indicator growth rate for Canada in May, the seasonally adjusted change in US non-farm payrolls for May, the annual growth rate of US average hourly earnings for May, the change in US non-farm payrolls in the private sector for May, the US labor force participation rate for May, the seasonally adjusted change in US manufacturing employment for May, the US unemployment rate for May, the change in Canadian employment for May, the Canadian unemployment rate for May, and China's foreign exchange reserves for May. Notably: South Korea held its presidential election on June 3, with the stock market closed for the day. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange designated 8:55-9:00 on June 3 as the call auction period for all futures and options contracts, with night session trading to resume that evening. Goolsbee, the 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed Chairman, participated in a Q&A session. Fed Chairman Powell delivered opening remarks at an event. South Korea tentatively scheduled its presidential election for June 3. The Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered a speech. South Korea held its general election. The Fed released the Beige Book on economic conditions. The European Central Bank (ECB) announced its interest rate decision. ECB President Christine Lagarde held a monetary policy press conference. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler delivered a speech at the Economic Club of New York. Harker, the 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed Chairman, delivered a speech on the economic outlook. ECB President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech. In terms of crude oil: During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, both WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose. WTI crude oil increased by 3.7%, while Brent crude oil rose by 4.01%. Despite the OPEC+ group's adherence to its plan to increase production, wildfires raging in oil-producing provinces in Canada threatened supplies, and new US tariff threats put pressure on the US dollar, both of which supported oil prices. As of Monday, wildfires in Alberta, a major oil-producing province in Canada, had affected approximately 7% of the country's total crude oil production. At least two thermal oil sands operators south of the industrial hub of Fort McMurray evacuated workers and halted production over the weekend. OPEC member countries agreed on Saturday to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July, marking the third consecutive month of the same increase. The alliance aims to regain market share and penalize overproducing countries. Goldman Sachs analysts expect OPEC to implement a final 410,000 bpd increase in August. In a report, the bank stated, "Relatively tight spot oil market fundamentals, strong global manufacturing data, and seasonal support for oil demand during the summer suggest that the expected slowdown in demand is unlikely to be severe enough to prevent production increases when the August production level is decided on July 6." (Wenhua Comprehensive)

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Social Inventory of Aluminum Increased Slightly During the Week, Inventory Buildup Expectations Intensified; Short-Term Focus on the Game Between Demand and Arrival of Goods] On the supply side, domestic aluminum capacity is approaching its ceiling. Insufficient recovery of hydropower in Yunnan has exacerbated regional supply tightness, limiting the increase in aluminum ingot output. Cost side, a mine in Guinea that had its mining license revoked suddenly received a production halt notice late last Friday night, sparking market concerns about the supply of bauxite raw materials, which may drive up the cost of alumina. However, the specific impact remains to be evaluated.

According to the website of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), the SAFE recently released data on bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange, as well as bank-mediated cross-border receipts and payments for April 2025. Li Bin, Deputy Director of the SAFE and spokesperson, answered questions from reporters regarding the foreign exchange revenue and expenditure situation in April 2025. Q: How was China's foreign exchange revenue and expenditure situation in April 2025? A: Cross-border capital flows generally showed a net inflow. In April, non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, recorded a net inflow of cross-border capital amounting to $17.3 billion. From the perspective of major channels, firstly, China's foreign trade demonstrated certain resilience, with a net inflow of cross-border capital under goods trade reaching $64.9 billion, maintaining a relatively high level. Secondly, foreign investors' willingness to allocate RMB assets continued to improve. In April, foreign investors' net purchases of domestic bonds amounted to $10.9 billion, remaining at a high level. In late April, foreign investment in domestic stocks shifted to net purchases. Thirdly, major outflow channels remained stable and orderly. In April, the net outflow of service trade funds was basically flat MoM. Seasonal increases in profit remittances by foreign-invested enterprises were observed, but they were lower than those in the same period last year. Inbound and outbound foreign direct investment remained basically stable, and cross-border capital flows related to intercompany borrowings and lending shifted from net outflows to a state of basic equilibrium. Market expectations were stable, and the supply and demand of foreign exchange in the domestic market were basically balanced. In April, bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange increased by 12.8% and 13.9% MoM, respectively, indicating active market transactions. The balance between settlement and sales of foreign exchange was basically even, with market expectations and transactions remaining rational and orderly. In April, the settlement ratio, which measures the market's willingness to settle foreign exchange, was 64.4%, up 6.9 percentage points MoM. The sales ratio, which measures the willingness to purchase foreign exchange, was 65.4%, up 1.0 percentage point MoM. The foundation for the stable operation of the foreign exchange market will continue to be consolidated. The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee in late April deployed work related to expanding domestic demand and effectively responding to external shocks, calling for accelerating the issuance of special bonds, increasing the income of low- and middle-income groups, vigorously developing service consumption, etc., effectively boosting market confidence. Recently, financial regulatory authorities have implemented a package of policies, including RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, to further increase support for the real economy. With the implementation and effectiveness of these policies, the positive momentum of China's economic operation is expected to continue to be consolidated, better playing a fundamental role in stabilizing the foreign exchange market. Recently, high-level economic and trade talks between China and the United States have achieved substantive progress, with both sides issuing a joint statement to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels, which will help maintain the healthy, stable, and sustainable development of China-U.S. economic and trade relations.

[5.14 Morning Meeting Minutes] This month, affected by destocking at downstream material plants, the production schedule for some precursors has declined, and the procurement demand for nickel salts has weakened. Supply side, some nickel salt smelters have low raw material inventory levels and expectations for production cuts. Nickel salt smelters are not enthusiastic about shipping. The nickel salts available in the market are also relatively limited. Looking ahead, the current nickel salt market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. It is expected that nickel salt prices will remain stable.

SMM Nickel News on May 14: Macro News: (1) On May 13, the US Department of Labor released the April CPI data. The unadjusted year-on-year CPI rate was 2.3%, hitting a new low since February 2021 and falling below the expected 2.4%. The seasonally adjusted month-on-month CPI rate was 0.2%, also missing the expected 0.3%. In April, the unadjusted year-on-year core CPI rate in the US was 2.8%, in line with market expectations and remaining at the lowest level since March 2021. The month-on-month rate was 0.2%, lower than the market expectation of 0.3%. (2) The State Taxation Administration uses VAT invoice data calculated at current prices to monitor the daily sales revenue of enterprises nationwide, reflecting the macroeconomic operation trend. The latest data shows that in April, the growth rate of nationwide enterprise sales revenue accelerated, with a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, continuing the steady growth trend since Q4 last year. This reflects the continuous release of the effects of a package of existing and incremental policies since the end of September last year, boosting the economic rebound. Spot Market: Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price is 124,500-125,350 yuan/mt, with an average price of 124,925 yuan/mt, up 1,125 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan No.1 nickel is 2,100-2,200 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,150 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The premium and discount quotation range for Russian nickel is 100-300 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 200 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Futures Market: Today, non-ferrous metals generally rose. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2506) opened lower in the night session yesterday and then continued to rise. The daytime session maintained the upward trend, closing at 125,060 yuan/mt by 11:30, with a gain of 0.67%. The China-US economic and trade talks reached a consensus on tariff issues, easing trade tensions. Currently, nickel ore prices remain high, and the shortage of supply in mining areas persists, driving up the costs of the nickel industry chain. However, under the supply surplus situation, cost transmission is hindered, and nickel prices may remain in the doldrums, with a support level at 122,000 yuan/mt and a resistance level at 128,000 yuan/mt. Subsequent attention should be paid to policy adjustments in Indonesia and changes in nickel ore supply after the end of the rainy season in the Philippines.

[VAT invoice data shows: National corporate sales revenue increased by 4.3% YoY in April] The State Taxation Administration uses VAT invoice data calculated at current prices to monitor national corporate sales revenue on a daily basis, reflecting the macroeconomic operation trend. The latest data shows that in April, the growth rate of national corporate sales revenue accelerated, increasing by 4.3% YoY, continuing the steady growth trend since Q4 last year. This reflects the continuous release of the effects of a package of existing and incremental policies since the end of September last year, boosting the economic rebound.