Next week, the key macroeconomic data will include the US July unadjusted CPI YoY rate, July retail sales MoM rate, and preliminary August one-year inflation expectations. On the geopolitical front, tensions in the Middle East have eased. According to US media, Iran and Oman have reached a temporary agreement on the Strait of Hormuz issue; meanwhile, US President Trump again stated that military operations against Iran may end soon. In addition, the US will release several economic indicators next week, and markets will continue to monitor statements from Fed officials on future monetary policy. In the short term, the macro front remains highly uncertain, providing limited support for base metal prices. On the LME lead front, suppliers in markets outside China have been actively picking up goods recently, with LME lead inventory dropping by over 16,000 mt this week. However, considering the current overseas lead consumption situation, the supply shortage is mainly concentrated in 4N lead, while 3N lead trading remains sluggish. The market widely views this destocking as a result of inventory transfers rather than improvement in end-use consumption. Meanwhile, LME lead Cash-3M contango widened further to -$47.56/mt, also reflecting that expectations for spot consumption improvement remain limited. Attention should still be paid to developments in the Middle East and the Fed's monetary policy impact on the base metal market. Next week, LME lead is expected to continue its range-bound consolidation, trading at $1,870-1,915/mt. For SHFE lead, the accumulation of lead ingot social inventory is a normal phenomenon ahead of SHFE lead delivery. As delivery approaches next week, suppliers are expected to further increase shipments to delivery warehouses, and visible inventory may continue to rise, exerting some pressure on lead prices in the short term. However, on the supply side, maintenance shutdowns at major primary lead delivery brand smelters are gradually starting, which could become an important factor supporting lead prices in mid-to-late August. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to dip first and then stabilize and rebound, with a trading range of 15,450-15,900 yuan/mt. Spot lead price forecast: 15,400-15,650 yuan/mt. In the short term, downstream lead-acid battery enterprises are seeing both production recovery and output cuts, and consumption improvement remains limited, providing insufficient support for lead prices. On the supply side, maintenance shutdowns at primary lead smelters are increasing, and market availability of goods is expected to tighten gradually, with primary lead spot cargo likely to maintain a slight premium. If lead prices gradually recover, secondary lead enterprises' losses are expected to be repaired, and smelters' willingness to sell may pick up accordingly, with secondary refined lead trading at a discount likely to increase.

[SMM Tin Midday Commentary: US Dollar Fluctuations Drive Futures Fluctuations, the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Consolidates in the Morning]

[SMM Silver Weekly Review: Silver Surges 7% This Week; Double Bottom Pattern Emerges; Mixed Outlook Ahead] This week, silver prices moved up unilaterally, gaining 7.08% WoW. Weaker ADP data and US-Iran peace talks drove a pullback in rate hike expectations, but hawkish comments and cautious sentiment ahead of the non-farm payrolls limited gains. Spot supply and demand were both weak, with transactions centered around parity. Inventories edged down, while ETF holdings inched up WoW. A short-term double bottom pattern has taken shape, but the foundation for further upside remains fragile. Watch for guidance from the upcoming non-farm payrolls data.

[SMM Daily Review: Weaker ADP Data Boosts Silver Prices; Spot Demand and Trading Sluggish] SMM, August 6 – The US ADP employment hit a new low for the year, expectations for interest rate cuts intensified, and silver prices rebounded. Spot market silver prices rose, suppressing purchase willingness. Transactions were concentrated near parity, and demand remained sluggish.

SMM, Aug 5: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals rose almost across the board. SHFE copper rose 0.79%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.15%. SHFE lead rose 2.61%. SHFE zinc rose 1.38%. SHFE tin rose 0.5%. SHFE nickel fell 0.78%. In addition, foundry aluminum most-traded futures were flat at 23,365 yuan/mt, alumina most-traded contract rose 0.99%, lithium carbonate most-traded contract rose 1.45%, silicon metal most-traded contract rose 0.72%, and polysilicon most-traded futures rose 1.83%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 0.93%, rebar rose 0.34%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.5%. Stainless steel fell 2.09%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal most-traded contract rose 3.27%, and coke most-traded contract rose 2.13%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:45, LME metals broadly rose. LME copper was flat at $14,043/mt, LME aluminum rose 0.22%, LME lead rose 0.71%, LME zinc rose 0.59%, LME tin rose 0.13%, and LME nickel fell 0.2%. Precious metals: as of 11:45, COMEX gold rose 0.8% and COMEX silver rose 1.33%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 1.92%, and SHFE silver most-traded contract rose 5.35%. In addition, as of the midday close, platinum most-traded futures rose 7.04%, and palladium most-traded futures rose 6.01%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping freight index futures contract fell 8.96% to 1,635 points. As of 11:45 Aug 5, selected futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Spot prices of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper quoted at 110 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper quoted at a premium of 30 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 106,990 yuan/mt, up 450 yuan/mt, and SX-EW copper averaged 106,890 yuan/mt, up 460 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventories ended a two-day rising streak and declined again, mainly due to fewer arrivals... Macro Front China: [PBOC net drains 201.5 billion yuan from the open market today] The PBOC conducted 5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos, with an operation rate of 1.40%, unchanged from last. Today, 206.5 billion yuan of reverse repos mature. US Dollar: As of 11:45, the US dollar index fell 0.05% to 99.82. Oil prices fell further, with markets betting that the tight energy supply situation will ease, potentially reducing inflationary pressures, and cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes. (Wall Street CN) According to the CME "FedWatch," the probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged in September is 41.6%, while there is a 58.4% probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike. For October, the probability of rates staying unchanged is 30.5%, with a 53.9% probability of a cumulative 25bp hike and a 15.5% probability of a cumulative 50bp hike. (Jin10 Data APP) "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos wrote that US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s policy reaction function has shifted to a less dovish stance. His remarks this year suggest that the Fed should continue to hold rates steady. Earlier this year, Bessent cited models showing that the Fed’s policy rate could be anywhere from more than 25bp to over 100bp above the neutral rate. Today (August 4), he put forward two points. He first defended Warsh’s decision last week not to articulate any policy reaction function: "I believe every meeting should be open, and market participants should judge for themselves... I think Warsh wants to keep his options open to achieve the best outcome." Secondly, he did propose a policy reaction function that could be seen as dovish, arguing that near-term shocks should be ignored: "What exactly will be the impact of rising short-term rates? We’ll have to wait and see." He raised this question, but then responded by noting that underlying inflation is "very mild... very steady." "In core inflation, after stripping out the more volatile components influenced by energy, the rest has been very steady. I expect this to continue." (Jin10 Data APP) On the economic data front, US job openings declined somewhat in June, but hiring rebounded slightly, indicating that labour market demand remained relatively stable. eToro’s Bret Kenwell noted that this Friday’s non-farm payrolls report will be the next key period: "If the data is strong, especially amid still-elevated inflation, it will reinforce expectations for a September rate hike; but if the data is weak, combined with last week’s lower-than-expected GDP growth, it could provide more justification for the Fed to stay on hold." (Wall Street CN) Data: Today will see the release of France’s June industrial production m/m, final July services PMIs for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK, Eurozone June PPI m/m, US July ADP employment change, final US July S&P Global services PMI, and US July ISM non-manufacturing PMI, among other data. Watch: 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid will speak on the Fed, monetary policy, and the agricultural economic outlook. Crude Oil: As of 11:45, oil prices in both markets extended the declines from the previous two trading days, continuing to fall, with WTI down 1.36% and Brent down 1.06%. Qatar stated that both the US and Iran are optimistic about an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the relevant proposal has been drafted. US Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly stated that the agreement could be finalized on Tuesday or Wednesday. Affected by this, crude oil futures continued their downward trend. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global energy supply; if reopened, it is expected to promote the normalization of global oil supply. According to Xinhua News Agency, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baqaei said on August 4 that Iran is still in negotiations with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, with "positive progress" on technical and political levels. US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that an agreement could be reached as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday this week. According to a report by the US news website Axios on August 4, regional sources and US officials indicated that the US, Iran, and Oman are "close to reaching" an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the US side hopes to announce the deal on August 5. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Spot Market: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Daily Review: US-Iran Strait Standoff, Silver Prices Move Sideways] SMM Aug 5 – Easing US-Iran geopolitical tensions, along with the US dollar halting its decline, led to a slight rebound in silver prices, but strong economic data capped upside room. Spot demand remained sluggish, with transactions at parity and orders sluggish.

[SMM Daily Review: US-Iran Negotiations Kick Off, Silver Drifts Higher] SMM, August 3 – US-Iran negotiations kicked off, with risk-off sentiment intertwined with plummeting crude oil and a weakening US dollar. The market interpreted this as a net bullish factor, and silver prices rebounded. Spot trading was sluggish early this month, with both supply and demand remaining weak. Attention turns to guidance from US economic data.

Next week, key macroeconomic data include the US July ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP employment change, unemployment rate, and seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls. As recent cooling inflation has dampened rate hike expectations, the US dollar index consolidates around the $100 level, with market awaiting guidance from employment data. Additionally, Iran rejected a proposal for joint management of the Strait of Hormuz, and the US announced the completion of a new round of military operations targeting Iranian objectives, reigniting market concerns over easing geopolitical conflicts. For LME lead, LME lead inventory continued its downward trend, while LME lead Cash-3M contango widened further, with the latest quote at -$41.15/mt. Currently, geopolitical conflict risks persist outside China; lead consumption in the Middle East shows no recovery expectations, while lead consumption in Southeast Asia is steadily rising with spot premiums climbing again. Lead ingot (Pb≥99.99%) CIF premium was quoted at a super high $240/mt, which will support an upward shift in lead price center to some extent. Next week, LME lead is expected to trade at $1,880-1,925/mt. For SHFE lead, there are no expectations for improvement in lead consumption in August yet. Cautious procurement by downstream enterprises and accumulating lead ingot inventory have dragged lead prices to consolidate on a subdued note. Meanwhile, increased maintenance and production cuts at primary and secondary lead smelters, along with supply tightening expectations, have narrowed spot lead discounts, providing strong support for lead prices. Next week, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 15,500-15,850 yuan/mt. Spot lead price forecast: 15,350-15,600 yuan/mt. Entering August, a new round of delivery for SHFE lead is on the agenda, with lead ingots moving from smelter warehouses to social warehouses. Market supply of circulating cargo is expected to decrease, and suppliers' willingness to sell at discounts may further decline. If lead prices continue to consolidate at lows, spot premiums for both primary and secondary lead are expected to persist.

[SMM Silver Weekly Review: Silver N-shaped consolidation ended flat this week amid repeated tug-of-war between geopolitical and interest rate hike expectations] Silver prices showed an N-shaped trend this week. At the start of the week, ceasefire expectations pushed prices up. Subsequently, the hawkish US Fed held rates steady, combined with repeated Middle East tensions, and silver prices consolidated to close at 14,286 yuan/kg. Spot silver supply and demand were both weak, and transactions remained at parity. On the inventory front, total social inventory accumulated to 3,658 mt, while ETF open interest edged down. Short-term, it is expected to move sideways with a downward bias.

Next week, key macroeconomic data will include the US June core PCE price index y/y, the US July University of Michigan consumer sentiment index final reading, and China's July official manufacturing PMI, with the major event being the US Fed FOMC interest rate decision. With only a few days until the Fed meeting, the market remains deeply divided over whether the Fed will hike rates this month, a situation rarely seen in recent years. The market widely expects a high probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, though attention still needs to be paid to the policy signals from the meeting and the post-meeting statement. Meanwhile, the US reimposition of reciprocal tariffs and the escalating US-Iran conflict, together with rising energy costs such as crude oil, have heightened market concerns over the global economic outlook. LME lead side, after a surge in LME lead inventory outside China the previous week, LME lead cancelled warrants increased significantly this week, up nearly 30,000 mt WoW. Geopolitical tensions outside China, rising crude oil prices, and shipping constraints have pushed up lead prices from the cost side. At the same time, expectations of lead consumption growth in the Southeast Asian market persist, which will provide some support for the lead market, but high lead ingot inventory pressure will still limit the upside room for lead prices. Next week, LME lead is expected to trade at $1,875-1,935/mt. SHFE lead side, as August approaches, the market has expectations for the traditional peak season for lead-acid batteries, but actual consumption so far has been disappointing. While smelter production has been steady to slightly higher, lead ingot inventory faces further accumulation pressure. Currently, lead ingot inventory is mainly concentrated at smelter warehouses. Going forward, attention should be paid to the potential shift from invisible to visible inventory, which could continue to weigh on lead prices. Next week, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 15,550-15,950 yuan/mt. Spot lead price forecast: 15,500-15,750 yuan/mt. Consumption side, demand in the lead-acid battery market remains weak. Downstream enterprises remain cautious in procurement, with just-in-time procurement still dominant. Supply side, primary and secondary lead smelters are seeing mixed production adjustments. Spot market supply is ample, and spot cargoes are generally trading at a discount. With new monthly long-term contracts set to begin execution next week, the spot market discount structure may be hard to improve significantly.