This week, nickel prices exhibited an accelerating decline, with macro bearish factors serving as the core driver for the pullback in prices. At the start of the week, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract held above 144,000 yuan/mt in volatile trading. However, as US economic data continued to beat expectations, market expectations for a US Fed rate hike this year heated up, the US dollar index rebounded, and the nonferrous metals sector generally came under pressure. During the week, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract successively broke through several round number levels, including 142,000, 140,000, and 139,000 yuan/mt, hitting a low of approximately 137,700 yuan/mt. Its weekly cumulative decline exceeded 3%, while LME nickel simultaneously fell below the $18,500/mt mark. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel this week was 142,090 yuan/mt, down 5,250 yuan/mt WoW. The Jinchuan nickel premium rebounded slightly to 800 yuan/mt this week, while the premium range for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel remained at -600 to 300 yuan/mt. On the macro front, US economic data continued to beat expectations, and rate hike bets intensified. The US manufacturing PMI for May came in at 54, up 1.3% from April. On the geopolitical front, Trump stated he has no intention of restarting a full-scale war with Iran. Expectations for US-Iran negotiations have warmed up, and the market is betting on the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which could ease the sulfur transportation bottleneck. However, the US-Iran talks still face the risk of further twists and turns. On the inventory front, inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Zone this week stood at approximately 1,700 mt, flat WoW. China’s social inventory was around 120,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 3,500 mt WoW. Currently, the nickel market is locked in a tug-of-war between macro headwinds and cost support. In the short term, it is expected to remain in the doldrums. However, with policy and cost floors in place, downside room for a further sharp decline is limited. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade mainly within the range of 137,000–145,000 yuan/mt next week.

SHFE tin opened the week with a rally in full swing, pushing prices to within striking distance of an all-time high, primarily driven by supply-side disruptions and the computing power theme. In the last two days, however, the market suddenly reversed course, with prices pulling back sharply in a broad decline that completely erased the week’s earlier gains. What changed in the market’s trading logic? Rise and Fall on the Same Catalyst: Semiconductor Stocks Pull Back As the iteration of large AI models advances and high-end computing power chips are upgraded, the amount of solder required in their production increases. This year, tin’s label as a computing-power metal has continued to strengthen. Amid the AI frenzy, semiconductor indices outside China maintained a sustained rally, which not only boosted demand expectations for tin but also significantly benefited tin prices through the stock-futures linkage effect. However, heights breed danger. After a parabolic surge, chip stocks repeatedly hit new highs. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index components recently traded at 26 times forward 12-month earnings, well above the 10-year average of 21 times. The AI space became increasingly crowded, and market disagreement grew over the rally’s sustainability. Going forward, whether AI demand effectively spreads and the earnings performance of chip leaders have become the market’s center of focus. The newly released revenue of chipmaker Broadcom missed expectations, cooling the AI fervour to some extent. Overnight, chip stocks suffered a collective sell-off, and today the South Korean stock market plunged, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix falling sharply. Against the backdrop of a significant pullback in semiconductor stocks, tin prices were inevitably dragged down, leading the decline in China’s commodity futures market today. The market is now assessing whether AI infrastructure investment has already overdrawn future growth expectations, though some investors remain optimistic. Yesterday, the US Nasdaq index opened lower but rebounded to largely recoup its losses by the close. The overall market style displayed a rotation of funds rather than a mass exodus, making it difficult to argue that the bullish expectations for future semiconductor stocks have completely dissipated. Overseas Central Bank Policy Expectations Turn Hawkish, Liquidity Concerns Intensify Recent US-Iran negotiations have seen repeated developments, but judging by the overall trend in precious and base metals, the market largely ignored the short-term headline noise. The overall trend remained under pressure, mainly weighed down by liquidity concerns. Market expectations for the timing of potential interest rate hikes by European and US central banks are being pulled forward, with multiple factors reinforcing this view. On one hand, US economic data showed resilience. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 54 in May, a near four-year high and the fifth consecutive month in expansion territory. Some employment data showed improvement, and the labour market maintained its characteristic of "low hiring, low layoffs," providing ample justification for a policy shift. On the other hand, US inflationary pressures are evident. Both the PCE price index and the US Fed’s Beige Book indicated that cooling consumption and rising price pressures have emerged simultaneously across multiple sectors. Uptick in inflation is tightening the outlook for monetary policy. In addition, the overall stance of US Fed officials has turned hawkish. The minutes from the April Federal Reserve meeting showed that the internal assessment has shifted, from previously expecting interest rate cuts later in the year to a greater inclination to maintain current rate levels for an extended period, and even not ruling out a further increase in borrowing costs. Recently, several officials also released hiking signals, stating that if inflation remains persistently high, the possibility of further policy tightening cannot be ruled out. Fundamentals Have Not Shifted, Supply-Side Support Remains Overall, the sharp pullback in SHFE tin over the latest two days was mainly dragged down by liquidity risk and a cooling of the AI frenzy. Tin prices have always exhibited high elasticity. Currently, the futures price has only given back the gains of the preceding two days, with the center not yet moving further downward, which indirectly reflects that support from the tin market’s supply-demand structure still exists. Currently, traditional demand-side tracks remain subdued, while the emerging computing power engine remains robust. Marginal growth keeps demand expectations for the tin market bullish, while ongoing supply-side disruptions bring more upward momentum. Recently, key producing regions including Myanmar, the DRC, and Indonesia have all seen varying degrees of disturbance. Specifically, supply recovery in Myanmar has been slow, hampered by operational restrictions, material approvals, and accidents. The Goma border crossing in the DRC was previously closed due to an Ebola outbreak, raising market concerns about supply disruptions. Indonesia’s export policy outlook carries high uncertainty, with the overall policy direction showing a persistently tightening trend, reflecting deeper resource nationalism and the bottleneck of tin ore flows against the backdrop of resource de-globalization. In summary, current inflationary pressures are intensifying, and interest rate hikes by European and US central banks seem to be on the verge of deployment, making it difficult to expect any easing in liquidity. Commodity trends will remain under pressure. However, the computing power theme is unlikely to fizzle out, and mine-side supply growth is limited, which may restrict near-term downside space. The market retains a bullish outlook for SHFE tin over the medium and long term. (Wenhua, Synthesized)

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Comment] Macro Disturbances and Off‑Season Drag Weaken Stainless Steel Futures and Spot Prices, Inventory Buildup SMM, June 5 – SS futures fluctuated downward and gradually pulled back. Non‑ferrous metals futures continued the weak pattern of the previous day, with the downtrend intact and further weakening and pulling back, dragging SS futures down in tandem. As of the morning close, the most‑traded SS contract stood at 14,635 yuan/mt. In the spot market, pressured by the persistently weak SS futures, combined with the traditional off‑season and weak end‑use consumption, downstream enterprises were generally cautious in their inquiries and purchases, and market trading turned dull again. Meanwhile, social inventory shifted from decline to increase, showing an accumulating trend, and traders, under transaction pressure, cut their quotes to varying degrees. The most‑traded SS futures contract fell back. At 10:15 a.m., SS2607 was at 14,635 yuan/mt, down 135 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 435–1,035 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of Wuxi cold‑rolled 201/2B coil was flat; for cold‑rolled 304/2B coil with matte edge, the average price in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt, and in Foshan, it also fell by 50 yuan/mt; Wuxi cold‑rolled 316L/2B coil price was unchanged; for hot‑rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, Wuxi quotes remained stable; cold‑rolled 430/2B coil prices held steady in both Wuxi and Foshan. Stainless steel futures and spot markets experienced heightened volatility, with futures first rising and then falling, disturbed by macro news from outside China, and the off‑season characteristics of the market fully emerged. The industry’s outlook for the near term is unclear, wait‑and‑see sentiment is heavy, ...

SMM June 5 News: Metals market, as of the midday close, domestic base metals all declined. SHFE copper, aluminum, and lead each fell within 0.5%. SHFE zinc fell 0.88%, SHFE tin fell 4.29%, and SHFE nickel fell 1.68%. Additionally, the most-traded casting aluminum futures contract edged down, alumina most-traded contract fell 0.75%, lithium carbonate most-traded contract rose 1.37%, silicon metal most-traded contract fell 1.15%, and polysilicon most-traded futures contract fell 1.76%. Ferrous metals mostly rose, with iron ore falling 0.84%, rebar and HRC both edging up 0.06%, and stainless steel falling 1.05%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.74%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.5%. Overseas base metals market, as of 11:39, LME metals fell across the board. LME copper fell 1.05%, LME aluminum fell 0.98%, LME lead fell 0.4%, LME zinc fell 0.99%, LME tin fell 2.05%, and LME nickel fell 0.21%. Precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.9% and COMEX silver fell 1.77%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.53%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 1.75%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 0.02%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 2.4%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container freight futures contract fell 0.68% to 3,660 points. As of 11:39 on June 5, selected futures midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper quoted at a discount of 70 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 105,335 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average for SX-EW copper was 105,250 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventory continued to decline today, marking four consecutive days of decline... Macro front Domestic side: [Strengthening fair competition: China Anti-Monopoly Enforcement Annual Report (2025) released] The State Administration for Market Regulation (the National Anti-Monopoly Bureau) released the China Anti-Monopoly Enforcement Annual Report (2025). The report noted that in 2025, the SAMR continued to step up anti-monopoly enforcement, filing 20 monopoly cases and concluding 22 throughout the year, with total fines and confiscations reaching 653 million yuan; steadily improved the quality and efficiency of business concentration regulation, concluding 706 merger cases, up 9.8% YoY; intensified efforts to remove local protectionism and market segmentation, issued the Implementation Measures for the Fair Competition Review Regulations, strengthened gatekeeping at the source for fair competition review, and market regulation departments at all levels reviewed nearly 60,000 policy measures during the year. (CCTV) [PBOC Reverse Repo Injects Net 92 Billion Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted a 215 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at an interest rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous operation. Today, 123 billion yuan in reverse repos matured. On the dollar front: As of 11:39, the US dollar index edged down 0.03% to 99.42. US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 30 came in at 225,000, above the expected 213,000 and the revised prior reading of 212,000, the highest since the first week of February. The four-week moving average was 214,750, up from 208,250 the previous week. Continuing claims stood at 1.777 million, slightly below the expected 1.78 million. The rise in initial claims indicates some softening in the labor market, though they remain at relatively low and stable levels. Continuing claims edged down. It should be noted that continuing claims data are reported with a one-week lag, so next week's data will correspond to this week's initial claims. (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME FedWatch Tool: The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through June is 96.4%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 3.6%. Through July, the probability of rates staying unchanged is 88.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25-bp rate hike is 8.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-bp cut is 3.2%. The Fed's Mary Daly said that monetary policy is currently in a good place, but the economic situation is too uncertain to clearly determine the path of interest rates. Daly stated that providing forward guidance is not appropriate at this time because it is impossible to predict how the economy will evolve, and the most concerning issue is inflation, with the focus on rising energy and food prices. Bringing inflation back to target is the Fed's top priority. Daly also said that while there is no clear evidence in the economic data yet that AI is boosting productivity, she remains optimistic about the technology and believes 2027 will be a litmus test; at the same time, she sees no financial stability concerns related to AI investment. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today, data including the US unemployment rate for May, US seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for May, US average hourly earnings year-over-year for May, US average hourly earnings month-over-month for May, UK Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index month-over-month for May, French industrial production month-over-month for April, French trade balance for April, Eurozone Q1 revised GDP annual growth rate, and Eurozone Q1 final seasonally adjusted employment change quarter-over-quarter will be released. Additionally, 2028 FOMC voting member and Kansas City Fed President Schmid participated in a fireside chat, while 2027 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly delivered a speech. Crude Oil: As of 11:39, oil prices on both exchanges moved sideways, with WTI up 0.19% and Brent up 0.46%. The market focused on developments in the geopolitical conflict. UK-based maritime analytics firm Windward reported on the 4th that satellite imagery showed loading operations had resumed at Iran’s key oil export hub, Kharg Island. The report stated that satellite images captured on June 2 showed a very large crude carrier (VLCC) moored near the western offshore terminal of Kharg Island, marking the first confirmed vessel to berth since the facility halted operations in early May due to a suspected oil leak. On June 3, loading operations were underway simultaneously for the VLCC at the western berth and a Panamax tanker at the eastern T-jetty. By the 4th, the VLCC had completed loading and departed, while the Panamax remained berthed at the terminal. Windward noted that the simultaneous resumption of services at both terminals indicates Iran is actively working to restore crude export capacity. The report also highlighted continued frequent activity by small fast-attack craft of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) throughout the Strait of Hormuz. The ongoing high tempo of operations suggests that the IRGC Navy remains on heightened alert to support Iran-linked vessels in the Strait. (Xinhua News Agency) On Friday, an explosion occurred near the Mina Al Fahal crude terminal in Oman. Details on the cause and scale remain limited, but the incident was reportedly a drone attack. The spillover of geopolitical risks has drawn close attention from multiple parties. (Jin10 Data App) Furthermore, eight OPEC+ member countries will hold an online meeting on Sunday to review supply policy for March. According to delegates, OPEC+ is still prepared to approve the suspension of production increases, even after US threats against member Iran helped push oil prices to $70. A delegate previously suggested that a major supply disruption could prompt the group to act, but for now, their stance appeared unaffected by this week’s crude price rally. OPEC+ faces a more uncertain choice at its subsequent monthly meeting, which will likely be held in early March, when it must decide on a course of action after the Q1 production-increase pause expires. Other members like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have already shown notable signs of eagerness to continue restoring output. However, whether further increases are feasible is another question. (Jin10 Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Daily Review: Silver Moved Sideways with Narrowing Spot Discounts, Awaiting Non-Farm Payrolls Data for Guidance] SMM, June 5 — With mixed macro signals, silver moved sideways. Spot discounts narrowed significantly, and market quotes gradually stabilized at slight discounts, awaiting non-farm payrolls data for directional guidance.

SMM June 5 News: Metals market: Overnight, base metals fell broadly across both domestic and overseas markets, with only LME copper and SHFE copper rising together. LME copper rose 0.86%, and SHFE copper rose 0.64%. LME tin and SHFE tin both fell over 2%, with LME tin down 2.24% and SHFE tin down 2.1%. SHFE nickel fell 1.25%, while the remaining metals declined less than 1%. The alumina front-month contract fell 1.36%, and the casting aluminum front-month contract fell 0.04%. Overnight, ferrous metals generally fell. Stainless steel and iron ore both dropped over 1%, with stainless steel down 1.01% and iron ore down 1.23%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar each fell around 0.4%. Coking coal and coke both rose, with coking coal up 1.23% and coke up 0.88%. Precious metals: Overnight, COMEX gold rose 0.79% and COMEX silver rose 0.58%. In China, SHFE gold rose 0.43% and SHFE silver rose 0.73%. As of 6:42 AM on June 5, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [PBOC: Conducted 500 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation] The PBOC announced that to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on June 5, 2026, the People's Bank of China would conduct a 500 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation through fixed-quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple-price winning method, with a term of 3 months (92 days) and a maturity date of September 5, 2026 (to be extended in case of holidays). US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.09% to 99.44. US Fed's Daly stated that monetary policy is currently in a good position, but the economic outlook is too uncertain to provide clarity on the direction of interest rates. Daly said it is not appropriate to offer forward guidance at this time, as it is impossible to predict how the economy will develop. The most concerning issue at present is inflation, with the focus on rising energy and food prices, and bringing inflation back to the target level is the Fed's top priority. Daly also noted that although there is no clear evidence in current economic data that artificial intelligence has boosted productivity, she remains optimistic about the technology and believes 2027 will be the litmus test; meanwhile, she has not identified financial stability concerns related to AI investment. (Jin10 Data APP) Data from the New York Fed showed that global supply chains remained under pressure in May due to the Middle East conflict, indicating that inflationary pressures will remain severe for the foreseeable future. The latest Global Supply Chain Pressure Index pulled back slightly to 1.77 from April's unrevised reading of 1.82. The index remained near levels seen in the second half of 2022. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June was 96.4%, with a 3.6% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut. The probability of the Fed holding rates unchanged through July was 88.5%, with an 8.2% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike and a 3.2% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro front: Data to be released today include the US May unemployment rate, US May seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US May average hourly earnings year-on-year, US May average hourly earnings month-on-month, UK May Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index month-on-month, France April industrial output month-on-month, France April trade balance, Eurozone Q1 GDP year-on-year revised, and Eurozone Q1 seasonally adjusted employment quarter-on-quarter final. In addition, 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid will participate in a fireside chat, and 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will deliver a speech. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI crude down 3.24% and Brent crude down 2.5%. The market pinned hopes on the possibility of an end to the US-Iran conflict; however, US crude oil inventory declines exceeded expectations and market supply remained constrained, providing a foundation for oil prices to move higher. Iran's crude oil and condensate exports fell to at least a six-year low in May, with daily average exports well below 300,000 barrels per day, mainly due to the US naval blockade imposed since April 13. At that time, Iran nearly completely blocked the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and the UAE, and the oil market faced a supply deficit. Vortexa data showed Iran's May exports were approximately 209,000 bpd, down from 1.34 million bpd in April and nearly 1.9 million bpd in March, the lowest level since the end of 2019. Another agency, Kpler, estimated May exports at approximately 260,000 bpd, also a six-year low. (Wallstreetcn) According to data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, for the week ending May 29, total US crude oil and petroleum product inventories fell by 10.6 million barrels from the previous week to 1.57 billion barrels, the lowest level since 2004. Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) fell by 8 million barrels in a single week to 433.7 million barrels, marking the sixth consecutive weekly decline, far exceeding analysts' prior expectations of a 3.3 million barrel draw. (Wallstreetcn) Fitch stated that the Strait of Hormuz closure has lasted 14 weeks, and it assumes the strait will not begin to reopen until July. Fitch raised its 2026 Brent crude oil average price assumption from $70/barrel in March to $87/barrel. (Jin10 Data APP)

June 1, 2026 The price of gold fell at the start of trading in Europe, slipping below the $4,500 mark. The precious metal came under pressure after optimism waned over the weekend regarding negotiations between the U.S. and Iran aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, energy prices rebounded, with Brent crude oil gaining 3% from Friday’s closing price. This development has reignited inflation concerns and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its hawkish stance. This has strengthened demand for the U.S. dollar and created headwinds for gold prices due to the inverse correlation between the two assets. Against this backdrop, markets will remain focused on the ongoing talks between the U.S. and Iran, which, alongside the release of key U.S. economic data, are expected to remain a major driver of price movements. This week will see the release of the PMIs for the manufacturing and services sectors, as well as the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday. Any surprises in these data releases could recalibrate expectations regarding the future course of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, thereby influencing demand for the U.S. dollar and, consequently, the movement of gold prices. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-prices-in-the-spotlight-iran-talks-and-u-s-data-are-driving-the-market

[SMM Daily Review: Silver Prices Moved Sideways, Spot Discounts Held Steady] SMM reported on June 2 that macro sentiment fluctuated, and silver prices saw small fluctuations. Spot market discounts continued, with increased shipments at the beginning of the month, and transactions leaned toward the lower end.

May 29, 2026, 02:29 AM Gold is consolidating but the long-term bull market remains strong. Fiscal imbalances and central bank buying to drive prices higher. Gold is just taking a breath and the race is not over. Gold prices have pulled back from recent highs, dipping below $4,500 per ounce and testing key technical support levels, but the long-term bull market remains firmly intact, according to portfolio manager Tom Winmill of the Midas Discovery Fund. In an interview with Kitco News , Winmill emphasised that the current consolidation should be viewed as a healthy pause rather than a reversal. “Gold is just taking a breath and the race is not over,” he stated, underscoring his conviction that structural drivers continue to support higher prices ahead. The yellow metal has faced pressure amid shifting market dynamics, including stronger US dollar moves and fluctuations in Treasury yields. Yet Winmill sees these as temporary headwinds in what he describes as a secular bull market for gold. Strong fundamentals underpin outlook Winmill pointed to persistent global fiscal imbalances as a core reason for optimism. “There’s no way back from the fiscal imbalances, and gold benefits,” he noted, highlighting how elevated government debt levels and monetary policy realities create a favorable environment for precious metals. Central bank buying remains a powerful tailwind, with many emerging market institutions continuing to diversify reserves away from traditional currencies. This demand floor, combined with investor interest in gold as a hedge against uncertainty, provides significant support even during periods of consolidation. The portfolio manager also drew attention to gold equities, which he believes offer compelling value after the recent correction in the sector. Mining companies have strengthened their balance sheets through disciplined capital allocation and are now generating robust cash flows. Winmill views gold stocks as a strategic opportunity for investors seeking leveraged exposure to rising metal prices. Path to higher prices remains open Looking further ahead, Winmill has previously expressed bullish targets, including scenarios where gold could approach or exceed $5,000 per ounce. He maintains that the path to such levels is “wide open,” driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors including potential monetary easing, geopolitical risks, and ongoing de-dollarization trends. Despite short-term volatility, the Midas Discovery Fund manager advised patience. The recent pullback, in his view, represents a breathing period that allows the market to reset before the next leg higher. Investors who focus on fundamentals rather than daily price action are likely to be rewarded as the cycle matures. Portfolio positioning and strategy At Midas Discovery, Winmill’s approach centers on a mix of established producers and select development-stage companies with strong assets. Holdings have historically included names like Barrick Gold and Newmont, alongside royalty companies that provide lower-risk exposure to gold price upside. The fund’s long-term track record reflects success in navigating precious metals cycles, aiming to preserve and grow purchasing power through strategic investments in gold, silver, and related hard assets. Winmill has managed the fund for over two decades, emphasizing a disciplined, value-oriented style. Current market conditions, with gold testing its 200-day moving average, present what Winmill sees as an attractive entry or accumulation point for both physical metal and equities. He cautioned, however, that volatility will persist, particularly as markets digest economic data and geopolitical developments. Broader market context Gold’s performance in 2026 has been marked by significant swings following a strong prior year. While prices have retreated from peaks above $4,500, many analysts continue to forecast substantial upside over the medium term, with some projections targeting $5,000 or higher by year-end or into 2027. Winmill’s message aligns with this constructive view, reinforcing that structural bull market drivers have not been exhausted. For investors, the current environment calls for a focus on quality assets and a long-term horizon rather than attempting to time short-term moves. As global uncertainties persist, from fiscal policy challenges to international tensions, Winmill believes gold’s role as a safe-haven and inflation hedge will only grow in importance. The race, as he puts it, is far from over. Source： https://invezz.com/news/2026/05/29/gold-is-just-taking-a-breath-path-to-5000-oz-still-wide-open/

May 29, 2026 A crumbling foundation for U.S. growth, coupled with stubborn inflation and renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, are exacerbating the Federal Reserve’s macroeconomic dilemma. For investors in real assets, this mix of data recently sent a clear signal: while stock markets are struggling to digest monetary policy uncertainty, precious metals have posted significant gains. Spot gold rebounded noticeably, and industrially driven silver rose even more dynamically. U.S. growth falters – inflation remains hot The U.S. economy is losing momentum faster than expected. Economic growth for the first quarter was revised down significantly from the previously reported 2.0% to an annualized 1.6%. This slowdown temporarily eased pressure on bond yields. In contrast, inflation remains stubbornly high, causing headaches for the Federal Reserve: The PCE price index for April rose 0.4% month-over-month and remains at a high 3.8% year-over-year. The core PCE index (excluding food and energy), which is crucial for monetary policy, rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year. Both indicators thus remain well above the official stability target of 2%. For the gold price, it was primarily the interplay of these factors that tipped the scales on Thursday: The combination of weaker growth and a slightly cooler monthly core PCE figure eased concerns about further interest rate hikes, causing the dollar index (-0.1% to 99.16) and yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds to decline slightly. Since physical precious metals do not yield interest, their relative attractiveness increased as a result of this stabilization. Geopolitical powder keg in the Strait of Hormuz In addition to U.S. monetary policy, geopolitical risk in the Strait of Hormuz is driving up risk premiums in the markets. The critical waterway, through which a large portion of global crude oil exports passes, remains fiercely contested. Over the past 48 hours, ongoing skirmishes in the area have kept volatility high. Although a preliminary 60-day framework plan is currently being negotiated—which calls for an extension of the ceasefire, the reopening of shipping lanes without fees, and a resumption of nuclear talks—a final agreement has yet to be reached. For the real assets sector, this results in two opposing effects: A diplomatic solution would dampen oil prices and ease inflation concerns, which could weaken the dollar and support precious metals. Further military escalation, on the other hand, would further fuel energy prices (WTI currently at $88.90, Brent at $92.72) and thus global inflation, forcing the Fed to adopt a restrictive stance. Conclusion: In the short term, the gold price remains caught between weakening U.S. economic data and geopolitically driven inflation risks. However, the fundamentals for hard assets appear extremely robust in this stagflationary environment. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-caught-in-a-stagflation-dilemma-u-s-weakness-meets-the-hormuz-crisis