SMM, August 13: In early trading, the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract moved lower from yesterday's center; market buying sentiment improved further, and trading among traders was relatively active. Today, SHFE aluminum spot premiums were mainly traded between parity against the August contract and August contract +10 yuan/mt, while market transactions against the September contract were at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to 20 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 3.18, up 0.01 day on day; the purchase sentiment index was 3.30, up 0.04 day on day. Aluminum futures pulled back somewhat; today, downstream processing enterprises in the central China market showed a slight recovery in purchase willingness, and overall market trading volume recovered. Large traders remained notably willing to hold prices firm and hold back from selling, and the price difference between large and small traders' quotes was wide. In the end, actual transaction prices in the central China market were in a range of discounts of 110-150 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum September contract. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 3.06, down 0.03 day on day; the purchase sentiment index was 2.95, down 0.02 day on day. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventories in major consuming regions rose by 3,000 mt day on day today, with only Gongyi showing destocking.

[SMM East China SHFE Aluminum Spot] In early trading, the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract moved lower compared with yesterday's center. Buying sentiment in the market improved further, and trading among traders was relatively active. Today, the main trading center for SHFE aluminum spot premiums was between parity and a premium of 10 yuan/mt against the 08 contract, while trades against the 09 contract were done at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to 20 yuan/mt.

According to SMM statistics, both mill inventories and social inventories rose to varying degrees in the current period. The total inventory of construction steel stood at 8.543 million tons, rising by 64,200 tons month-on-month, a month-on-month increase of 0.76%, with the inventory accumulation pace picking up slightly.

Construction steel social inventory: According to an SMM survey, total construction steel social inventory posted a slight build this period. As of August 13, 2026, SMM construction steel social inventory stood at 5.7557 million mt, up 50,000 mt WoW, an increase of 0.88%. During the survey period, Typhoon Dolphin struck, bringing heavy rainfall to some regions. Outdoor projects experienced severe waterlogging and construction progress was hindered. Compounded by transportation disruptions, end-use procurement demand declined, and inventory continued to build. Regional social inventory: Inventory performance across regions remained divergent. In east China, overall inventory shifted from decline to increase, mainly because typhoon-related heavy rainfall significantly constrained outdoor construction work and slowed the pace of end-use procurement. In northeast China, new maintenance at an individual blast furnace steel mill reduced supply, driving inventory from increase to decline. Inventory in southwest China also destocked slightly, mainly because the futures market improved somewhat during the survey period, market sentiment recovered in phases, and buying interest strengthened slightly. In addition, some steel mills in the region reduced production and overall material arrivals declined slightly; combined, these factors shifted inventory from increase to decline. Inventory performance in other regions was basically normal.

[CPI in Line with Expectations Eases Macro Anxiety; Sustained Destocking Provides Price Support] Based on a comprehensive assessment, on the macro front, US July CPI and core CPI YoY growth rates slowed to 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively, both in line with market expectations. The mild inflation pullback eased market concerns about further aggressive rate hikes by the US Fed; short-term upward momentum in US Treasury yields weakened, and macro liquidity pressure eased somewhat, providing support for aluminum prices at this stage. The fundamental supply gap persisted, and aluminum ingot inventories continued destocking. On the supply side outside China, UAE's EGA disclosed the progress of production resumption at the AlTaweelah aluminum smelter. Currently, 18% of the plant's 1,262 pots have been restarted, and the pace of production resumption has been faster than earlier market expectations. The supply-tightness premium priced in earlier now faces retracement pressure. In the near term, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note, but upside room will be somewhat capped by production resumption expectations.

1. Coal-to-Hydrogen In Shandong, the anthracite transaction range was [1,990-1,990], and the average hydrogen cost was [1.87 yuan/m³] In Hebei, the anthracite transaction range was [1,740-1,740], and the average hydrogen cost was [1.72 yuan/m³] In Shanxi, the anthracite transaction range was [1,260-1,260], and the average hydrogen cost was [1.31 yuan/m³] In Henan, the anthracite transaction range was [1,290-1,290], and the average hydrogen cost was [1.41 yuan/m³] 2. Natural Gas-to-Hydrogen In eastern Guangdong, the natural gas transaction range was [5,850-5,870], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.7 yuan/m³] In Guangxi, the natural gas transaction range was [5,540-6,070], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.67 yuan/m³] In Shanxi, the natural gas transaction range was [5,340-5,540], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.52 yuan/m³] In Hebei, the natural gas transaction range was [5,430-5,860], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.63 yuan/m³] In Shandong, the natural gas transaction range was [5,505-5,650], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.62 yuan/m³] In the Pearl River Delta, the natural gas transaction range was [5,860-5,870], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.74 yuan/m³] In Hubei, the natural gas transaction range was [5,560-5,780], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.65 yuan/m³] In Henan, the natural gas transaction range was [5,520-5,700], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.64 yuan/m³] In Guizhou, the natural gas transaction range was [5,330-5,510], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.54 yuan/m³] In Sichuan, the natural gas transaction range was [5,330-5,610], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.58 yuan/m³] In Zhejiang, the natural gas transaction range was [6,030-6,420], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.86 yuan/m³] In Inner Mongolia, the natural gas transaction range was [5,450-5,670], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.54 yuan/m³] In Heilongjiang, the natural gas transaction range was [5,560-5,900], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.66 yuan/m³] 3. Propane-to-Hydrogen In northeast China, the propane transaction range was [5,330-5,560], and the average hydrogen cost was [3.17 yuan/m³] In east China, the propane transaction range was [5,610-5,830], and the average hydrogen cost was [3.31 yuan/m³] In Shandong, the propane transaction range was [5,832-5,842], and the average hydrogen cost was [3.38 yuan/m³] In south China, the propane transaction range was [5,830-6,090], and the average hydrogen cost was [3.43 yuan/m³] 4. Methanol-to-Hydrogen In northeast China, the methanol transaction range was [2,700-2,720], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.39 yuan/m³] In east China, the methanol transaction range was [2,580-2,720], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.36 yuan/m³] In central China, the methanol transaction range was [2,500-2,750], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.38 yuan/m³] In north China, the methanol transaction range was [2,380-2,510], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.19 yuan/m³] In south China, the methanol transaction range was [2,690-2,700], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.38 yuan/m³] In northwest China, the methanol transaction range was [1,880-2,375], and the average hydrogen cost was [1.97 yuan/m³] In southwest China, the methanol transaction range was [2,460-2,730], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.36 yuan/m³]

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: ADC12 Quotes Hold Up Well on Cost Push] Yesterday, ADC12 quotes generally held up well, and SMM raised its average price by 100 yuan/mt. Primary aluminum and aluminum scrap prices continued to rise, further strengthening raw material cost-side support. This boosted the market's willingness to follow the uptrend, while support below prices remained relatively solid. However, end-user demand remained in the high-temperature off-season; orders and consumption were mediocre, downstream users mainly made just-in-time procurement, spot trading showed limited improvement, and the demand side still exerted some pressure on price increases. In the short term, if futures and aluminum scrap prices remain strong, ADC12 prices still have room for further follow-through gains, but weak demand will limit spot price gains. Overall, the market is expected to continue a narrow sideways pattern characterized by the coexistence of cost support and demand constraints.

SMM August 12: The SHFE aluminum 2608 contract continued to run at high levels in morning trading. Wuxi saw more warehouse withdrawals, relatively less inbound shipments due to weather issues, and relatively active trading among traders. Today, SHFE aluminum spot premiums mainly transacted in the range of 8-10 yuan/mt to SHFE 08 contract +10 yuan/mt. In east China today, the selling sentiment index was 3.17, up 0.02 DoD; the buying sentiment index was 3.26, up 0.06 DoD. Aluminum futures prices rose for multiple consecutive days, keeping buying sentiment in the central China market sluggish. Downstream processing enterprises, constrained by insufficient off-season orders and high in-factory inventory as well as elevated aluminum prices, kept buying sentiment at low levels with a further weakening trend. As aluminum prices rose and premiums eased somewhat, suppliers' willingness to sell recovered slightly. Actual transaction prices in the central China market eventually centered around a discount of 100-140 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 08 contract. Today in central China, the selling sentiment index was 3.09, up 0.03 DoD; the buying sentiment index was 2.93, down 0.01 DoD. Inventory-wise, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas dropped 13,500 mt WoW today, with destocking seen in Guangdong and Wuxi.

In the Yangtze River Delta, the lowest monthly rental for a 4090 rose to 7,200 yuan (up 4.35%), and the lowest per-card hourly rate rose to 1.25 yuan (up 4.17%). As the mainstream consumer-grade AI inference card, the 4090 saw low-priced resources in the region continuously absorbed, pushing up lower-end prices and narrowing the quotation range. Bargaining power tilted toward the supply side, and sporadic supply reductions dominated.

[SMM Nickel Flash] August 12 news: According to SMM, since July, disruptions from both typhoon weather and Indonesia’s rare earth detection policy have continuously hampered the maritime transport and port unloading of high-grade NPI, significantly slowing the circulation pace of imported cargo. Currently, maritime operations are gradually resuming in south China from August 11 and in east China from August 12. The shipping disruptions caused by the typhoon are now progressively easing, and a large-scale release of cargo is expected around the end of August, which should somewhat alleviate supply tightness in the forward market.