[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes: Polysilicon Prices Temporarily Stable, Module Prices Drop] Over the weekend, polysilicon N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 32.7-35.5 yuan/kg. Market order signing was limited, and prices remained temporarily stable over the weekend. After the exhibition, no new orders were signed, and the market is watching for subsequent policy developments.

[Geopolitical Risks and Accelerating Destocking Drive SHFE Aluminum Volatile Adjustment] The Middle East geopolitical situation remains volatile, market wait-and-see sentiment is expected to persist, the ex-China supply gap is expected to provide strong bottom support for aluminum prices, US Fed interest rate hikes remain uncertain, and rising energy cost expectations also form a bullish driver for aluminum prices; but high inventory pressure in China remains relatively prominent, which is expected to limit the upside room of domestic aluminum prices, with short-term domestic aluminum prices expected to mainly see volatile adjustment.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Tug-of-War Between Longs and Shorts Intensifies, Aluminum Alloy to Remain Sideways in Short Term] In the short term, ADC12 prices have limited downside room, and upside breakouts also lack effective demand-side cooperation. The overall trend is expected to be generally stable with slight rise.

This week, ferrous metals diverged, with coking coal and coke extending their strength, iron ore making some concessions, and finished steel moving sideways. Early in the week, rumors about coal mine safety inspections continued to swirl, and expectations of supply tightness intensified, driving coking coal to its daily limit up. Against weak supply-demand fundamentals, iron ore took a path of conceding to coking coal and coke, while finished steel edged higher in a narrow range; later in the week, data on the five major steel products were released, with HRC inventory destocking continuing, the off-season effect on construction steel demand emerging, inventory destocking narrowing, and overall inventory pressure for finished steel also beginning to slowly accumulate......

[HRC] HRC export prices remained stable day on day today, with transaction prices at 496-504 USD/tonne. A major mill in north China reported that its transaction price fell by more than 5-10 USD/tonne WoW this week, and its prices remained higher than other resources, at around 515 USD/tonne. The presence of tax-exclusive prices in the market has made it more difficult for some regular traders to close deals. It is learned that tax-exclusive prices are even 10 USD/tonne lower than the market’s lowest tax-inclusive prices. [Rebar] Rebar export FOB quotations remained stable today, with transaction prices mostly concentrated at 492-495 USD/tonne. Shipments are mostly scheduled for August, and some steel mills have full order books, with deliveries already scheduled from September to October. According to feedback from some market traders, recent inquiries for wire rod have been moderate, overseas buyers remain cautious and on the sidelines, and their psychological price levels are generally lower than current offers. [Steel Billet] The export transaction price for steel billet was 473-475 USD/tonne today, holding steady day on day. Recently, offers from steel mills in north China were at around 478 USD/tonne, but it is reported that deals cannot be reached for high-priced resources. Currently, most shipments are scheduled for August, with a few in September. It is learned that a few mills in east China have maintenance plans in June and will continue to control their order intake in the short term. In addition, some mills in north China have recently taken new rebar orders, so they are temporarily reducing the volume of steel billet available for ordering.

This week, cold-rolled and hot-rolled prices weakened, with overall transactions turning weaker WoW. Supply side, rolling line maintenance decreased WoW this week, reducing the impact on output, and HRC production showed an increase overall. Demand side, apparent demand edged up slightly WoW this week. Inventory side, this week, SMM’s tally of HRC social inventory across 86 warehouses nationwide stood at 4.3519 million mt, down 114,500 mt WoW, or a decline of 2.56%. By region, inventory in South China and Northeast China saw slight accumulation, while North China, East China, and Central and West China continued destocking. Cost side, coking coal and coke futures trended strongly this week. The fifth round of coke price increases was implemented, and hot metal output rebounded, supporting iron ore prices. HRC cost support was strong. Looking ahead, expectations for a sixth round of coke price increases remain, and according to SMM, hot metal output is still expected to rise further, providing demand support for iron ore. Overall, the cost side still offers support. From the perspective of HRC fundamentals, the current supply-demand imbalance has not yet accumulated to drag on prices. However, considering that downstream buyers mainly purchase as needed during the off-season, demand is unlikely to see a significant surge, capping price increases. Next week, HRC prices are expected to remain range-bound, with the most-traded HRC contract trading in the 3,340-3,420 range.

[Domestic Iron Ore Brief] Domestic iron ore concentrates prices edged down this week. Looking at regional performance, prices in Tangshan, Qian'an, Qianxi, etc., Hebei, were basically flat; Chaoyang, Beipiao, Jianping in western Liaoning edged down by 1-5 yuan/mt; east China also saw a decline of 10-15 yuan/mt.

SMM June 5 news: Lead prices pulled back sharply, suppliers showed poor willingness to sell, and downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong. This week, secondary refined lead transactions were subdued overall. Tight supply of scrap battery raw materials pushed up production costs, further deepening industry losses. As of June 5, large secondary lead enterprises lost 517 yuan/mt, while small and medium-sized firms lost 725 yuan/mt, with losses widening by 158 yuan/mt from June 1. The bargaining disadvantage of small and medium-sized enterprises led to wider losses. Looking ahead, production resumptions at secondary lead smelters in east China, northwest China, and other regions will boost rigid demand for scrap batteries, making raw material purchase prices more likely to rise than fall, leaving little room for cost-side pullback. Meanwhile, increased refined lead supply from resumptions will put product quotes under pressure. Under the combined influence of multiple factors, the loss-making pattern in the secondary lead industry is hard to change, and small and medium-sized producers remain mired in deep losses.

[SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Weekly Review] Scrap Edges Up on Raw Material Linkage, Off-Season Constraints Cap Gains This week, the price of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China edged up, with a quotation range of 10,400-10,500 yuan/mt. In the Foshan area, off-cuts of the same specification moved higher in tandem, trading in a range of 10,300-10,600 yuan/mt. From a raw material cost analysis perspective, the current production cost of stainless steel using 100% stainless steel scrap is approximately 14,580.48 yuan/mt, while the cost using only high-grade NPI stands at 15,153.78 yuan/mt, maintaining a significant cost spread between the two. Stainless steel scrap prices edged up this week. During the week, SS futures retreated after a rapid rise overall, while spot stainless steel prices fluctuated narrowly and held firm overall, providing a stable foundation for the stainless steel scrap market. Meanwhile, the alternative raw material high-grade NPI market continued to hold up well, with prices edging higher. The positive overall sentiment in the raw material segment spurred stainless steel scrap prices to rise in tandem. However, the market has now entered the traditional consumption off-season for stainless steel, with weak downstream end-use demand. Coupled with production cuts and maintenance at domestic steel mills, raw material demand expectations have weakened somewhat. The industry-wide issue of tight tax invoices has yet to be effectively resolved, continuing to constrain market trading activity. At the same time, recent grade degradation issues in high-grade NPI require steel mills to supplement nickel content with high grade nickel products, and combined with limitations in their production processes, it remains difficult for steel mills to significantly increase their use of stainless steel scrap. Although stainless steel scrap retains a favorable cost advantage over high-grade NPI, multiple bearish off-season factors on...

SMM, June 5: The SHFE aluminum 2606 contract fluctuated downward in early trading, with its overall price center lower than the previous trading day. Buying sentiment in east China recovered somewhat, influenced by the decline in aluminum prices, while some sellers remained on the sidelines, holding back from selling and raising their offer prices. Mainstream spot transaction prices in the market were at a discount of 100-110 yuan/mt against the SHFE June contract. The east China shipment sentiment index stood at 2.91, down 0.04 MoM, while the purchasing sentiment index was 2.84, up 0.19 MoM. Futures aluminum prices continued to fall MoM from yesterday, and coupled with a downstream stockpiling demand boost ahead of the weekend, overall buying sentiment in the market picked up. Moreover, with large suppliers offering limited shipments, sellers generally held prices firm and showed significant reluctance to sell, keeping offer prices consistently high. Ultimately, the actual transaction price range in the central China market centered around a discount of 190-200 yuan/mt against the SHFE June contract. The central China shipment sentiment index was 2.86, down 0.01 MoM, while the purchasing sentiment index was 2.22, up 0.02 MoM. On the inventory front, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions fell 1.15 MoM today, with destocking observed across all three regions.