The EU will hold an emergency meeting on the 23rd to reassess its 2025 trade agreement with the US. This follows the US Supreme Court ruling Trump's sweeping tariffs illegal, prompting him to invoke the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a temporary 15% tariff on global goods. The Chair of the European Parliament's Committee on International Trade stated that due to the "chaos" triggered by the US tariff policies, he will propose suspending the ratification of the trade agreement.

On the macro side, the US-EU trade agreement boosted the US dollar and risk sentiment. Meanwhile, Trump continued to pressure Fed Chairman Powell to lower borrowing costs, but the market generally expected the US Fed to maintain interest rates unchanged, which was bearish for copper prices, and LME copper closed slightly lower. On the supply side, domestic and imported copper arrived over the weekend, and there would still be domestic supply this week. Additionally, suppliers had a need to sell copper for cash at month-end, resulting in an overall loose supply situation. On the demand side, as copper prices fell during the day, downstream procurement sentiment slightly improved. On the inventory side, as of July 28, copper inventories in major regions across China monitored by SMM rose by 6,100 mt from last Thursday to 120,300 mt. Total inventories were 230,900 mt lower than the 351,200 mt in the same period last year, and the overall inventory level remained relatively low. On the price side, the market was currently waiting for news of the US reaching trade agreements with multiple countries, and it was expected that copper prices would fluctuate rangebound before that.

According to SMM, as the July 9 tariff deadline approaches, EU-US trade negotiations have entered a critical sprint phase. An EU Commission spokesperson stated on Monday that progress had been made in the trade agreement talks between the EU and the US, which have now reached the "beginning of the final stage," with at least a principled agreement expected. Earlier reports from CCTV indicated that US President Trump had threatened to impose 50% tariffs on EU goods if no breakthrough was achieved in the trade talks by July 9. Currently, the US imposes 50% tariffs on EU steel and aluminum products, 25% on the automotive sector, and a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all other goods.

[Summary of Morning Meeting on June 6] Domestically, nickel ore prices in the Philippines remain relatively firm, imposing a significant cost burden on smelters. Driven by the resumption of production at a smelter in North China after the completion of maintenance, production has seen a slight increase. In Indonesia, the premium for saprolite ore in the domestic trade remains relatively firm, with the HPM declining only slightly. Smelters enjoy strong cost support from nickel ore. The struggle of finished product prices to rise has led to a situation where mainstream smelters are still operating at a loss. However, due to the weak incentive to produce high-grade nickel matte, the overall decline in production is expected to be relatively limited.

[Tariff Summary] ① The Canada-US agreement may be reached next week. Canadian Prime Minister: If negotiations fail, Canada is prepared to take retaliatory measures against the US; ② EU trade official: Negotiations with the US are steadily progressing in the right direction; ③ UK Prime Minister: Very confident that US tariffs can be reduced in a very short period of time; ④ US Secretary of Commerce: Analysis will be completed and tariff standards for aircraft parts will be formulated before month-end; will not mutually eliminate tariffs and barriers with Vietnam; ⑤ Mexico will announce measures to respond to US steel and aluminum tariffs next week.

SMM Nickel News on June 5: Macro News: (1) Tariffs - ① It is rumored that the US-Canada agreement may be reached next week. Canadian Prime Minister: If negotiations fail, Canada is prepared to take retaliatory measures against the US. ② EU trade official: Negotiations with the US are progressing steadily in the right direction. ③ UK Prime Minister: Very confident that US tariffs can be reduced in a very short time. ④ US Secretary of Commerce: Analysis and formulation of tariff standards for aircraft parts will be completed by month-end; will not mutually eliminate tariffs and barriers with Vietnam. ⑤ Mexico will announce measures to respond to US steel and aluminum tariffs next week. (2) US economic data - ① ADP employment in May increased by 37,000, far below the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 62,000. ② The US ISM non-manufacturing index for May fell to 49.9, contracting for the first time in nearly a year, with expectations of an increase from 51.6 to 52. Spot Market: Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price is 121,700-124,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 123,100 yuan/mt, a decrease of 375 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for spot premiums of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 2,300-2,600 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,450 yuan/mt, a decrease of 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for premiums and discounts of Russian nickel is 100-600 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 350 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. Trading in the spot market has been relatively sluggish recently. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2507) opened lower and weakened during the night session, fluctuating downward during the day session. As of 11:30, the closing price was 121,620 yuan/mt, down 0.38%. In the medium and long term, the global nickel overcapacity issue remains unresolved, with the nickel market under triple pressure of "high supply, weak demand, and tight funds." In the short term, the bottom of the fluctuation range is seen at 118,000 yuan/mt, with the top under pressure at 123,000 yuan/mt.

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,640/mt, touching a low of $9,603.5/mt shortly after the opening bell.

Downstream restocking willingness on dips has decreased, while SHFE tin prices continue to fluctuate upward [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) GlobalFoundries, a US semiconductor wafer foundry company, has announced plans to invest US$16 billion to enhance its semiconductor manufacturing and advanced packaging capabilities at its facilities in New York and Vermont. (Bullish ★) (2) China South Industries Group Corporation has implemented a spin-off, with its automotive business becoming an independent central state-owned enterprise. (Bullish ★) (3) Jean-Marc Chery, CEO of STMicroelectronics, stated on Wednesday that the French-Italian chipmaker has seen signs of an upturn, with market demand expected to increase, which will boost its performance in the coming quarters. (Bullish ★) (4) Tariffs - ① It is rumored that a US-Canada agreement may be reached next week. Canadian Prime Minister: If negotiations fail, Canada is prepared to take retaliatory measures against the US. ② EU trade officials: Negotiations with the US are progressing steadily in the right direction. ③ UK Prime Minister: Very confident that US tariffs can be reduced in a very short time. ④ US Commerce Secretary: Analysis and formulation of tariff standards for aircraft parts will be completed by month-end; there will be no mutual tariff and barrier reductions with Vietnam. ⑤ Mexico will announce measures to address US steel and aluminum tariffs next week. (Neutral)

SMM June 3 News: Metal Market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals were mostly down, with SHFE copper slightly up. SHFE aluminum, SHFE zinc, and SHFE lead all fell less than 1%, SHFE tin dropped 1.01%, and SHFE nickel rose 0.25%. In addition, alumina rose 2.33%, lithium carbonate increased 0.57%, silicon metal fell 1.12%, and polysilicon declined 0.81%. The ferrous metals series all fell, with iron ore down 0.92%, rebar down 0.88%, HRC down 0.55%, and stainless steel down 0.39%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell 2.97%, and coke dropped 0.91%. In the overseas metal market, as of 11:46 a.m., LME metals were all down, with LME zinc and LME nickel both falling 0.91%, LME copper down 0.43%, LME aluminum down 0.87%, and LME lead down 0.76%. LME tin fell 0.32%. In the precious metals market, as of 11:46 a.m., COMEX gold fell 0.22%, and COMEX silver dropped 1.29%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 1.62%, and SHFE silver increased 2.32%. As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for the European Containerized Freight Index fell 0.9%, closing at 2065.6 points. As of 11:46 a.m. on June 3, some midday futures market movements: 》June 3 SMM Metal Spot Prices Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/mt to a premium of 0 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average discount of 60 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 180 yuan/mt to a discount of 160 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 170 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 78,180 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 78,070 yuan/mt, up 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot Market: Guangdong's inventory increased significantly after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, mainly due to increased arrivals and decreased outflows from warehouses... 》Click for details Macro Front Domestic: [Stable Demand Growth: Total Social Logistics Volume in China Increased 5.6% YoY from January to April] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) released logistics operation data for the first four months of this year today (June 3). In April, China's logistics operations withstood external shocks and pressures, demonstrating strong resilience and development potential, maintaining an overall stable and improving development trend. From January to April, the total social logistics volume in China reached 115.3 trillion yuan, up 5.6% YoY. [China Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce Proposes: Resolutely Resist "Cut-throat Competition" Primarily in the Form of "Price Wars"] The China Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce announced that, under the influence of the current industry market situation, the automobile dealership sector has been severely affected and impacted, facing a series of issues such as increased operating pressures, reduced profitability, high vehicle inventory, and tight working capital, which have had a serious impact on the sustainable and healthy development of the industry. Particularly since the second quarter of this year, amid the impact of a new round of "price wars," the situation faced by automotive dealers has become increasingly severe. To maintain a good, healthy, and fair market competition order and promote the high-quality development of the automotive industry, including the automotive dealership sector, the National Federation of Industry and Commerce Automotive Dealers Chamber of Commerce proposes the following initiatives: 1. The entire industry should prioritize the overall goal of achieving high-quality development in China's automotive industry, strictly adhere to the principle of fair competition, and resolutely resist cut-throat competition behaviors primarily in the form of "price wars." 2. Focus on brand image. Prevent frequent adjustments to sales policies and product selling prices from increasing the difficulty of sales for dealers and affecting the brand's image among consumers. 3. Improve the living conditions of automotive dealers. Adhere to the principle of producing based on sales, reasonably set annual production targets for enterprises and sales targets for dealers, refrain from shifting inventory burdens onto dealers or forcing them to purchase vehicles, and effectively reduce dealers' inventory levels. Address the issue of inverted purchase-sale prices, promptly provide rebates to dealers, shorten their payment collection cycles, reasonably determine the number of test-drive vehicles, and alleviate dealers' liquidity pressures. 4. Optimize business policies. Reasonably set evaluation indicators for dealers, exercise caution in using fines, and avoid coercing dealers to meet corresponding targets through evaluations. 5. Improve the network exit mechanism. Do not coerce dealers to exit the network or close stores under the pretext of optimizing network channels. Provide appropriate compensation to dealers who genuinely need to exit the network or close stores. [PBOC's Open Market Operations Net Withdraw 375.5 Billion Yuan Today] The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted 454.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 830 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured today, the net withdrawal for the day amounted to 375.5 billion yuan. [Over 1.6 Trillion Yuan in Reverse Repos Mature in the Open Market This Week] Over 1.6 trillion yuan in reverse repos will mature in the open market this week. Specifically, the maturity scales for reverse repos from Tuesday to Friday are 830 billion yuan, 215.5 billion yuan, 266 billion yuan, and 291.1 billion yuan, respectively, all with a 7-day tenor. [SZSE: Adjusts Constituent Stocks of Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, Shenzhen 100 Index, and Other Indices] The Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) announced that, in accordance with index compilation rules, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Securities Information Co., Ltd. have decided to implement regular adjustments to the constituent stocks of indices such as the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and Shenzhen 100 Index on June 16, 2025. ► The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market on June 3 was 7.1869 RMB per US dollar. US dollar updates: As of 11:46, the US dollar index rose by 0.24%, trading at 98.93. Uncertainty in the global trade situation has risen, with the US dollar index still hovering below 99. In terms of data, the US ISM manufacturing PMI for May fell to 48.5, remaining below the 50 mark for the third consecutive month, limiting the room for the US dollar to rebound. Currently, the market expects that there is about a 70% probability that the US Fed will implement at least two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts within the year. Chicago Fed Chairman Austan Goolsbee also stated that once the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is eliminated, the Fed will begin the process of cutting interest rates. Regarding other currencies: According to CCTV News, on June 2 local time, a spokesperson for the European Commission expressed deep regret over the US announcement to increase steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50%, a decision that further exacerbates economic uncertainty on both sides of the Atlantic. EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič will meet with US Trade Representative Katherine Tai in Paris, France, on June 4. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated in parliament that uncertainty surrounding trade policies is extremely high. The Japanese economy is experiencing a mild recovery, despite some signs of weakness. If economic and price trends align with expectations, interest rates will continue to be raised. Ueda noted that US tariffs may impact the Japanese economy through various channels, but the first impact is likely to be felt by export enterprises. (Financial Associated Press) In terms of data: Today, data such as Switzerland's May CPI year-on-year rate, the eurozone's May harmonized CPI year-on-year rate - unadjusted preliminary value, the eurozone's April unemployment rate, the revised month-on-month rate of US April durable goods orders, the month-on-month rate of US April factory orders, and the US April JOLTs job openings will be released. Additionally, South Korea held its presidential election on June 3, with the stock market closed for the day. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's call auction period for all futures and options contracts was from 8:55 to 9:00 on June 3, with night session trading resuming that evening. Austan Goolsbee, a 2025 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed Chairman, participated in a Q&A session. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivered opening remarks at an event. South Korea initially scheduled its presidential election for June 3. The Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered a speech. South Korea held its general election. In terms of crude oil: As of 11:46, crude oil futures were all down, with US crude oil up 0.7% and Brent crude oil up 0.59%. The market is concerned about supply issues, which are supporting oil prices. Iran will reject the US nuclear agreement proposal, which is crucial for easing sanctions on Iran, thereby limiting Iran's supply and providing support for oil prices. Meanwhile, Canadian production has been affected by wildfires. In addition, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to exacerbate supply concerns and regional risk premiums. Wildfires in Alberta, Canada, have led to the temporary shutdown of some oil and natural gas production, which may reduce supply and exacerbate supply concerns. The wildfires have affected over 344,000 barrels per day of oil sands production, accounting for approximately 7% of Canada's total crude oil production. (Webstock Inc.) Spot Market Overview: ► Post-holiday inventory increased significantly, with suppliers actively reducing prices to sell off goods. [SMM South China Spot Copper] ► No significant restocking activities were observed downstream post-holiday, with mediocre trading performance in the market. [SMM North China Spot Copper] ► [SMM Analysis] Demand growth remains stable, with an increase in manganese dioxide production in May. ► [SMM Analysis] Downstream demand remains robust, with an increase in production schedules for LMO enterprises in May. The noon review of spot prices for other metals will be updated later. Please refresh to view.

[Overview of Tariff Issues] ① US and EU trade officials will meet on Wednesday, with the EU reiterating warnings of tariff retaliation. ② Foreign media: Seeking to expedite negotiations, Trump demands countries submit their "best offers" by Wednesday. ③ The Trump administration appeals the order from the US District Court for the District of Columbia ruling its tariff policy "unlawful." ④ Japanese Prime Minister: No intention to make concessions on US tariff issues.