Nickel Ore " Transition in Pricing Systems and Standardization of Pyrometallurgical Ore Benchmarks; Convergence of Iron, Cobalt, and Chrome Elements " 1. Price Dynamics and HMA Revisions The Indonesian nickel market experienced overall price volatility this week. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has officially released the Nickel Mineral Benchmark Price (HMA) for the first half of May 2026. Nickel HMA: $17,802/dmt (up $868.57 or 5.13% from $16,933.57 in late April). Cobalt HMA: $55,854/dmt. Iron Ore HMA: $1.56/dmt. Chrome Ore HMA: $6.37/dmt. Current port-delivered prices for 1.6% grade pyrometallurgical ore (saprolite) stand at $74.5–$77.5/wmt, an increase of $1 from last week, remaining largely stable. In contrast, 1.2% grade hydrometallurgical ore (limonite) is priced at approximately $28.33/wmt, down $2 from the previous week. 2. Supply-Demand Fundamentals and Weather Impacts Pyrometallurgical Ore: As the rainy season concludes in Halmahera and Sulawesi, mine production is expected to rebound significantly in May. Despite RKAB approvals reaching 90%, spot supply for high-grade saprolite remains tight. However, market expectations for easing supply have strengthened. Notably, the average grade of ore accepted by smelters has begun to trend downward. While the decline is not yet significant, some smelters have started blending low-grade ore to mitigate the pressure of high-grade shortages and surging costs. Current pricing follows either a "fixed price" or "HPM + $7–$10 premium" model. Furthermore, some smelters are implementing standardized benchmarks for pyrometallurgical ore (Cobalt 0.05%, Iron 20%, Chrome 1%), regardless of actual ore variations. Bon have shrunk to minimal levels as most are now covered by fixed premiums. Hydrometallurgical Ore: Limonite prices have trended downward, failing to follow the uptick in the new HPM. Demand is under pressure due to potential MHP production cuts caused by a sulfuric acid shortage in May. With relatively stable inventories, smelters continue to exert strong downward pressure on prices. 3. SMM Internal Estimates The new pricing formula has led to increased price divergence and amplified volatility, particularly influenced by higher associated cobalt content in certain ores. SMM calculations show that the new HPM for 1.2% grade limonite is approximately $47.82, significantly higher than current market assessments. The new HPM for 1.6% grade saprolite is $64.85; the inclusion of higher cobalt content in the new formula has markedly amplified price fluctuations. While actual market transaction prices currently remain above this benchmark, the gap is steadily narrowing. 4. Regulatory Quotas (RKAB) and Market Outlook According to the ESDM, RKAB approvals for 2026 have reached approximately 90%. SMM statistics indicate that the total approved quota for Indonesian nickel ore stands at roughly 230–240 million wmt. The final quota is widely expected to be finalized by the end of April. Due to the convergence of reduced RKAB expectations, resource uncertainty, and high-grade ore shortages, some smelters have increased trade dividends and premiums to secure supply. The market is closely monitoring Weda Bay Nickel (WBN) . Due to a severely depleted RKAB quota for 2026, WBN plans to enter a "maintenance and care" phase starting in May. The company is actively pursuing a quota increase to alleviate the ore shortage at the IWIP industrial park. During this period, its downstream NPI plants will consume existing strategic inventories to maintain operations. 5. Regulatory Revisions: PP 19/2025 On May 8, the Directorate General of Mineral and Coal held a public hearing on the revision of PP 19/2025 , seeking feedback on adjustments to mineral royalty rates. Nickel Ore: The revision proposes lowering the minimum HMA threshold from <$18,000/t to <$16,000/t, and the maximum threshold from ≥$31,000/t to ≥$26,000/t. The tax tiers would be refined from 5 to 6 levels, with rates ranging from 14% to 19%. Impact: Based on today’s Nickel HMA of $17,802, the applicable royalty rate would rise from 14% to 15% if the revision is implemented. Additional Provisions: A 2% independent levy is proposed for cobalt in nickel matte and non-nickel smelting products, while a 2.5% tax rate is proposed for alloy pig iron. The impact on mainstream NPI projects will depend on Indonesia’s final product classification criteria. Nickel Pig Iron " NPI Average Prices Rally Strongly; Market Enters High-Level Deadlock " The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price increased by RMB 30.5 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1150.5 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index increased by USD 3.58 USD per nickel unit to an average of USD 146.78 per nickel unit. This week, the high-nickel pig iron market first declined and then rose. This week, favorable policies and exchange movements drove prices steadily higher, pushing the price center further up. However, by the end of the week, the market transitioned from a unilateral uptrend into a high-level deadlock. Upstream producers maintained a strong stance on pricing, with some anchoring their target at RMB 1,200/nickel unit and showing a high reluctance to sell. Conversely, downstream stainless steel mills showed weak acceptance of these high prices. Having completed their initial restocking, these mills saw a decline in procurement appetite, with the maximum acceptable price being limited. Additionally, a correction in the exchange market fueled "fear of heights" (market caution); despite active inquiries, actual transaction volumes were significantly lower than those seen before the holiday. The price gap between high and low-grade materials widened further, intensifying the structural divergence of supply. Looking ahead, while cost support remains, demand follow-through is insufficient. NPI prices are expected to remain in a high-level tug-of-war in the short term. Based on high-nickel pig iron cash costs calculated from nickel ore prices 25 days ago, smelter profit margins continued to recover this week, with many operations returning to profitability. On the raw material side, auxiliary material prices rose, while ore prices remained stable in the Philippines and saw a slight correction in Indonesia. Overall, the expansion of domestic smelter profits this week was primarily driven by the upward shift in NPI prices coupled with lower raw material costs. For next week, raw material prices are unlikely to see significant increases, and NPI prices are expected to remain at high levels, which should lead to further improvements in smelter profit margins. ​​​​​​​

The rally that propelled gold and silver to record-breaking highs in 2025 could pick up again if a U.S.-Iran peace deal is reached, market watchers told CNBC as prices ticked higher on Thursday.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Primary Aluminum Dropped Sharply, Market Showed Strong Willingness to Follow the Decline] Yesterday, the ADC12 spot market fluctuated downward, with mainstream enterprises generally lowering quotes by 200-300 yuan/mt, and the market sentiment to follow the decline was strong. On one hand, futures pulled back sharply, exerting strong downward pressure on the spot market, and enterprises actively lowered their quotes; on the other hand, downstream consumption remained weak, further undermining market confidence. Currently, although the cost side provides some support for prices, under the influence of insufficient demand and pessimistic market expectations, ADC12 prices still face certain downward pressure in the short term, and the market continues to remain in the doldrums.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Driven by Macro Factors, LME Zinc Rose to Record a Three-Day Winning Streak] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,397.5/mt. Early in the session, LME zinc experienced small fluctuations downward to a low of $3,392.50/mt. Subsequently, bulls increased open interest to push prices to fluctuate upward, reaching a high of $3,461.00/mt. Late in the session, LME zinc pulled back slightly, ultimately closing higher at $3,447.00/mt, up $37.5/mt, a gain of 1.10%. Trading volume increased to 87,481 lots, and open interest increased by 892 lots to 237,000 lots.

[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]Weak Demand Suppresses Prices, Tight Aluminum Scrap Supply Keeps Costs Elevated, Losses of Secondary Aluminum Producers Intensify

[SMM Silicone Weekly Review: As New Round of Expectations for Price Hike Released, Downstream Enterprises at Various Stages Purchased on Demand] This week, the transaction center of China's silicone DMC market remained stable, with mainstream transaction range at 14,700-15,000 yuan/mt. Regional quotations continued to diverge, with monomer enterprises in Shandong maintaining quotations at 14,700 yuan/mt, while mainstream quotations in other regions were 15,000-15,200 yuan/mt. Post-holiday market transactions were mainly driven by rigid demand, as mid- and downstream enterprises that had not purchased before the holiday entered the market to restock on demand. Currently, some upstream producers have pre-sale orders scheduled through month-end of May, and producers maintained a firm willingness to hold prices firm. Combined with the approaching industry conference in May, overall bullish sentiment in the market strengthened, which also drove downstream enterprises to enter the market for procurement.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Multiple Macro Factors Drove Futures Higher, Spot Market Fell into Stalemate with Scarce Transactions]

[Pre-Holiday Surplus Inventory Dragged Down Purchasing, Magnesium Market Trading Sluggish with Short-Term Downward Pressure on Prices] Today, the overall magnesium market trading was sluggish. Smelters maintained firm quotes but offered concessions in some cases. Downstream stocking inventory was sufficient, and the willingness to purchase on demand was weak, leaving short-term magnesium prices under pressure.

Gold has been pulled in two directions in recent weeks. On one side, rising oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions have strengthened the metal’s safe-haven appeal.

Starting from the new all-time high of USD 5,602 on January 29, the gold price has now been in a correction phase for over three months, characterized so far by two sharp downward waves, two recovery waves, and most recently by another downward wave since mid-April.