Philippine market: Zambales and Northern Luzon officially entered the rainy season. A low-pressure system may make landfall on Monday, and CIF prices followed Indonesian procurement prices lower. Overall CIF China offers fell this week: 1.3% at $45.5–47/wmt, 1.4% at $56–57/wmt, 1.5% at $64–65/wmt, and 1.8% at $91–94/wmt. CIF Indonesia offers held flat, with 1.3% at $45–46/wmt and 1.4% at $55–56/wmt, largely aligning with smelter tender prices. Freight rates eased notably this week: Surigao–Lianyungang around $13.25/wmt, Surigao–Indonesia around $11/wmt. Overall freight rates dropped by around $0.5/wmt WoW, significantly easing the situation where “freight rates stayed high.” FOB prices also moved lower, with 1.3% at $33–35/wmt, 1.4% at $41.5–43.5/wmt, and 1.8% at $76–78/wmt, confirming the earlier view that FOB would follow CIF’s pullback. Supply side, Zambales and Northern Luzon officially entered the rainy season, worsening mine roads, disrupting shipments, and leading to low outbound volumes. In terms of weather, the Philippines is expected to see continuous rainfall for the first five days of next week, shifting to mainly showers in the last two days, with total weekly rainfall surging across the country. Meanwhile, a low-pressure system is forming in the eastern waters; though not expected to intensify into a tropical depression or storm, it is forecast to make landfall in the central-southern Philippines next Monday and move northwestward across land, affecting Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. In major producing areas, cumulative weekly rainfall next week around the Manicani-Homonhon-Dinagat-Surigao belt is expected to more than double WoW, with the Homonhon area likely to be impacted by swells for 2–3 days. Dinapigue’s rainfall is forecast to be about six times this week’s level, with wave heights reaching around 1.7 meters on Wednesday and Thursday. RTN, Ipilan, and Berong loading points in Palawan are all expected to see higher rainfall next week compared to this week. In Zambales, cumulative weekly rainfall is forecast to be about 2.5 times this week’s level. Despite sustained weather disruptions, Chinese port inventories are already high, so weather’s support to prices remains very limited. Cost side, international oil prices pulled back slightly, alleviating mining and transportation cost pressures, but spot freight rates remained at relatively high levels, with the easing not yet fully materialized. Demand side, smelters in both China and Indonesia held dual-high inventories, with limited near-term restocking appetite. The buyer-dominated pattern persisted, and spot trading stayed sluggish. On inventories, as of June 26, Philippine nickel ore stocks at Chinese ports stood at around 6.44 million wmt (approximately 51,000 mt in nickel metal content), sustaining the ample supply picture. Indonesian market: HMA dropped sharply MoM—down 7.6% to a new low; RKAB revision window opened; heavy rainfall continued to disrupt shipments in Halmahera and Obi. Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources published the HMA nickel reference price for the first half of July at $17,225.67/dmt, a significant drop of about 7.6% from $18,642.33/dmt in the second half of June. Based on this, the theoretical HPM price for Ni 1.6% saprolite ore is around $66.6/wmt, and for Ni 1.2% limonite ore around $47.4/wmt. Premiums: premiums for 1.6% material remained stable; premiums for 1.4% material were around $1.3/wmt; for 1.5% and 1.6%, around $3/wmt—overall limited movement. In spot trading, 1.2% limonite ore was offered at around $30/wmt, and 1.5% saprolite ore at around $65/wmt, with both declining by about $5.5/wmt in total this week, mainly driven by the sharp fall in the HMA reference price. Supply side, the impact of the rainy season on Sulawesi production areas remained relatively mild in some regions, with limited disruption to overall shipments. However, weather conditions in Halmahera and Obi Island were generally severe, with persistent heavy rainfall and deteriorating sea conditions already causing some restrictions on mine production. Despite shipment disruptions, overall smelter inventory levels remained relatively adequate, limiting the near-term influence on procurement pace. Meanwhile, smelters continued to demand higher ore grades; low-grade ore (1.3–1.4%) supply was largely filled by Philippine cargoes, and multiple smelters turned to actively seeking high-grade ore (≥1.45%). Yet domestic high-grade ore supply remained scarce, with circulating grades concentrated in the 1.45–1.50% Ni range, intensifying procurement competition. Spot transaction prices for 1.2% limonite ore stayed stable this week; smelter procurement stayed low, with general reluctance to transact at HPM theoretical prices, deep discounts persisted, and low HPAL operating rates continued to weigh on purchasing prices. On the policy front, on Thursday, June 25, Tri Winarno, Director-General of Mineral and Coal at Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, clarified that the total RKAB quota for nickel ore in 2026 has not yet been finalized. The government is still evaluating companies’ revision applications through the official review mechanism, with no specific figure set, focusing on assessing actual industry demand rather than relaxing restrictions. The RKAB revision window officially opened on July 1 and runs until July 31, with mining companies already initiating preparation work for revision applications and submitting production quota adjustment materials intensively; all adjustments are subject to full review.

Iron ore prices followed an initial rise and subsequent decline this week, with the price center shifting further lower. The core drivers were that after the ninth round of coke price cuts was implemented, steel mill losses widened further. Combined with expectations of environmental protection-driven production restrictions in some regions, blast furnace maintenance plans increased, hot metal production continued to pull back, and the demand side was clearly under pressure. In terms of supply, global iron ore shipments and China’s port arrivals both increased MoM, with supply-side pressure intensifying somewhat and further weighing on ore prices. During the week, market talk that benchmark negotiations might restrict low-grade ore port cargo pick-up pushed futures to a short-term rebound. However, the market broadly viewed the probability of this measure actually being implemented as low, and after sentiment was released, price logic returned to a demand-led mode. Affected by this, spot prices performed weaker than futures. In port spot cargoes, the weekly average of the MMI 61% index slipped 5 yuan/mt MoM. Chart: MMI 61% Port Spot Index Source: SMM The domestic iron ore concentrate market edged lower this week, with regional divergence in performance. Prices remained basically stable in Tangshan, Qian’an, and Qianxi in Hebei. Areas such as Chaoyang, Beipiao, and Jianping in western Liaoning edged down by 5-10 yuan/mt. East China saw a pullback of 10-15 yuan/mt. Overall domestic ore production remained steady, but the resource landscape diverged by region. Supply in Hebei remained somewhat tight; within this, the Chengde area saw a further contraction in resource supply due to a mining accident, which provided some support to local iron ore concentrate prices. On the demand side, hot metal production at steel mill blast furnaces remained at a high level, still offering support to iron ore concentrate demand. However, steel mill profits have narrowed significantly recently, and the overall desire to bargain down prices is strong, causing local iron ore concentrate prices to edge down slightly. Chart: Tight Domestic Ore Supply Supports Prices — Domestic vs. Imported Ore Price Spread to Widen Further Next Week Outlook for Next Week Looking ahead to next week, the probability of the 10th round of coke price increases being implemented is relatively high. Increasing steel mill maintenance resulting from losses will lead to a larger decline in hot metal production. Iron ore demand will continue to deteriorate. Meanwhile, mines will push shipments in June, and imported ore port arrivals still have upside room over the next two weeks, leading to a slight accumulation in port inventories. In addition, a new round of talks between the US and Iran is scheduled for mid-month, and crude oil prices still face downside expectations, so iron ore shipping costs will remain weak. Iron ore prices will remain under pressure. However, considering the disturbance from benchmark negotiation news, there may be opportunities for a price rebound. Overall, iron ore prices are expected to remain in the doldrums next week. Domestically, the tight iron ore supply situation is expected to be difficult to alleviate. But given that demand for iron ore concentrates has weakened somewhat, steel mills’ push for lower prices will continue to dominate. The game between sellers and buyers continues. Overall, the domestic iron ore market is expected to be in the doldrums next week, but the decline may be smaller than that for imported ore.

[SMM Analysis: Surging Demand in H1 2026 Drives Industry Expansion, Anode Volume and Price Both Rise, Welcoming Recovery Opportunities] SMM July 3: In H1 2026, a surge in downstream demand drove steady improvement in the anode industry’s prosperity, significantly releasing overall market vitality.

[SMM Comment: New National Standard Implementation Combined with Tightening Tax Compliance Accelerates Rare Earth Scrap Recycling Industry from "Chaos" to "Order"] On July 1, GB/T 46992-2025, "Technical specification for classification and comprehensive utilization of recyclable rare earth secondary resources," officially came into effect. The standard systematically classifies rare earth secondary resources into nine major categories for the first time and innovatively designs a three-level "SRRE" coding system. Together with GB/T 23588-2020, "NdFeB production and processing recycled materials," they form a complementary framework—the latter provides detailed technical specifications for the single NdFeB category, while the former offers a management framework covering all categories. Both standards are now in effect simultaneously, marking a new stage of systematic management for rare earth secondary resources.

[SMM EMM Weekly Review: Cost and Production Cuts Double Bottom Support, Off-Season Market Stabilizes in Narrow Range] This week, China's EMM market rebounded slightly and then entered a sideways movement channel. Spot quotations overall stabilized and consolidated. The futures market showed a stalemate pattern where both gains and losses were difficult, with the downside room for prices fully locked. Costs and the supply side formed a double bottom support, becoming the core driving force stabilizing the market......

SMM July 2 News: Today the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 22,450 yuan/mt, reached a high of 22,595 yuan/mt, a low of 22,375 yuan/mt, and closed at 22,400 yuan/mt, down 85 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a decline of 0.38%. Trading volume was 201,300 lots, open interest 280,800 lots, with a daily position change of -6,149 lots. Price remained well below MA5 (22,595), MA10 (23,146.5), MA30 (23,940.83), and MA60 (24,381.92), and the moving average system maintained a standard bearish alignment, with no reversal in the downtrend. On the MACD indicator, DIFF (-504.66) and DEA (-357.65) continued to diverge downward, and the histogram expanded to -294.03, signaling intensifying bearish momentum. Volume of 201,300 lots was below MA5 volume (279,600 lots), marking three consecutive days of contraction, with market trading becoming sluggish. The daily position change of -6,149 lots indicated continued fund outflows. SMM Commentary: Indirect technical talks between the US and Iran made progress, with discussions centering on fund repatriation and strait security. Consultations on the nuclear issue are about to begin. The geopolitical risk premium continued to narrow, while disputes over management rights of the Strait of Hormuz persisted, leaving uncertainty over the resumption of navigation through the strait. The Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, pressuring nonferrous metal prices. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices in and outside China fell. In the short term, bearish factors dominated, and aluminum prices were expected to remain in the doldrums. Today the alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,781 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,803 yuan/mt, a low of 2,733 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,734 yuan/mt, down 52 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a decline of 1.87%. Trading volume was 245,200 lots, open interest 304,500 lots, with a daily position change of +18,216 lots. Price had completely fallen below MA5 (2,786), MA10 (2,828.4), MA30 (2,885.07), and MA60 (2,820.37), with the moving averages spreading in a bearish alignment and the downtrend accelerating. On the MACD, DIFF (-13.64) turned negative and fell below DEA (2.59), and the histogram expanded to -32.46, indicating a clear strengthening of bearish momentum. Volume of 245,200 lots exceeded MA5 volume (211,900 lots), with the heavy-volume decline accompanied by a daily inflow of 18,216 lots, showing strong willingness by bears to actively add positions and press prices lower. SMM Commentary: According to SMM statistics, as of last Thursday, total domestic alumina inventory edged down WoW. Looking at the inventory structure, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters continued to destock slightly, but restocking willingness was weak due to significant recent price fluctuations and market divergence on the outlook, with end-users mainly on the sidelines. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries decreased, mainly affected by phased maintenance at some plants in the north, which prioritized consuming in-factory inventory amid production constraints. This impact is expected to gradually fade after maintenance ends next week. Port inventory continued to build up, with high port arrivals from outside China supplementing spot supply with imported resources and adding market pressure. Overall, the oversupply pattern remained unchanged. Prior to the implementation of Guinea’s bauxite quota policy, the market lacked clear bullish drivers. Next week, inventory is expected to shift from weak destocking to moderate buildup, with the supply-demand balance remaining loose and alumina prices continuing to be in the doldrums. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]

[SMM Analysis: Anode-Free Sodium-Ion Battery Track Heats Up, Inpower Technology's Pre-A+ Round Outlines "Technology + Capital + Industry" Synergy] SMM, July 2: The sodium-ion battery track has witnessed another landmark event. Recently, Inpower Technology, an anode-free sodium-ion battery enterprise, announced the completion of its Pre-A+ funding round at the 100 million yuan level. This round was co-led by Qifu Capital and the Fudan Science and Technology Innovation Fund, with follow-on investments from Su Science and Technology Innovation, Xianghe Capital, and a global top-tier player in lead-acid batteries. Judging by the composition of investors, this funding round has transcended mere financial support, presenting a composite structure of triple empowerment: "technology endorsement + industrial resources + regional policies." This reflects that the sodium-ion battery industry is accelerating its shift from the technology verification phase to the large-scale volume ramp-up phase...

[SMM Morning News on Tin: Macro Headwinds Weigh on Tin Prices, Retreat After Rapid Rise; Spot Cargoes Plunge Into "High Prices Suppressing Demand" Dilemma]

SMM News on July 1: Metals market: As of midday close, domestic base metals mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.44%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.86%. SHFE lead fell 1.46%. SHFE zinc rose 1.01%. SHFE tin rose 0.93%. SHFE nickel fell 0.61%. Additionally, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.64%, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.11%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 5.65%. The most-traded silicon metal futures rose 0.6%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 3.08%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore fell 1.81%, HRC fell 0.52%. Rebar fell 0.79%, stainless steel fell 0.14%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 2%, the most-traded coke contract fell 2.33%. Overseas base metals market, as of 11:36, LME metals all fell. LME copper fell 0.91%, LME aluminum fell 1.18%, LME lead fell 0.69%. LME zinc fell 0.69%, LME tin fell 1.53%. LME nickel fell 0.37%. Precious metals, as of 11:36, COMEX gold fell 1.09%, COMEX silver fell 2.74%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 0.37%; the most-traded SHFE silver futures rose 0.5%. Additionally, as of midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 1.91%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 1.03%. As of midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures fell 9.81% to 2,560 points. As of 11:36 on July 1, midday futures quotes for some contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper reported at a premium of 50 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper reported at parity, up 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper reported at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,220 yuan/mt, up 140 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,135 yuan/mt, up 160 yuan/mt... Macro front China: [The PBOC net withdrew 1,162.5 billion yuan from the open market today.] The PBOC conducted 100 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today at an unchanged interest rate of 1.4%. Today, 662.5 billion yuan in 7-day and 600 billion yuan in overnight reverse repos matured. [Shenzhen's June housing transactions hit a near 6-year high.] According to data released by Shenzhen Centaline Research Center today, Shenzhen's new and secondhand home transactions totaled 8,878 units in June, down 11.9% MoM but up 14.2% YoY. The combined new and secondhand home transaction volume hit a new high for the same period since 2021. Among them, first-hand residential (presale + existing) online signings totaled 3,785 units, down 16.7% MoM but up 15.6% YoY; second-hand residential transfers reached 5,093 units, down 8% MoM but up 13.1% YoY. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar aspect: As of 11:36, the US dollar index rose 0.16% to 101.33. Fed’s Hammack said: The labour market is near full employment, with good growth prospects. Inflation remains too high, and the Fed may need to consider rate hikes. Jason Pride, Chief of Investment Strategy at private wealth management and investment firm Glenmede, and Michael Reynolds, Vice President of Investment Strategy, said investors should expect the US June unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.3%, with non-farm payrolls increasing by about 87,000. While this represents a pullback from May’s 172,000, in the current labour market environment of “low hiring, low layoffs,” it still counts as a solid outcome. Although employment fundamentals remain largely intact, the Fed’s focus has shifted to inflation, meaning that the timing of any future easing measures will depend more on inflation pressures than on job growth itself. According to CME’s “FedWatch”: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 66.3%, and the chance of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 33.7%. For September, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged is 33.1%, the chance of a cumulative 25bp hike is 50.0%, and the chance of a cumulative 50bp hike is 16.9%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data highlights: Today will see the release of US June Challenger Job Cuts, US June ADP Employment Change, US June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (final), US June ISM Manufacturing PMI, US May Construction Spending MoM, UK June Nationwide House Price Index MoM, UK June Manufacturing PMI (final), Switzerland May Real Retail Sales YoY, France June Manufacturing PMI (final), Germany June Manufacturing PMI (final), Eurozone June Manufacturing PMI (final), Eurozone June CPI YoY (preliminary), and Eurozone June CPI MoM (preliminary), among others. In addition, Fed Chairman Warsh, ECB President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem spoke at the “Policy Panel” session of the ECB’s Global Central Bank Forum. The Davos Technology Summit is held from July 1 to 4, with the theme “Physical AI and Robotics.” It is worth noting that on July 1, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (China) was closed for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with both northbound and southbound trading suspended. The Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada was closed for Canada Day. Crude oil: As of 11:36, oil prices on both benchmarks edged up, with WTI up 0.42% and Brent up 0.41%. Preliminary vessel tracking data from Kpler and Vortexa showed the UAE lifted exports of crude oil and condensate to a record high in June, shortly after leaving OPEC. Rauball, a senior oil analyst at Kpler, said UAE exports of crude and condensate averaged about 3.7 million barrels per day this month, a record high and well above the pre-Middle East conflict level of 3.1 million to 3.3 million barrels per day. The UAE's previous export peak was 3.44 million barrels per day in April 2020, when Saudi Arabia and Russia triggered a brief oil price war. Emma Li, a senior oil analyst at Vortexa, said crude loadings from Abu Dhabi hit 4 million barrels per day between June 1 and 29, surpassing the pre-conflict level of 3.4 million barrels per day. Exports also rose to a record 3.7 million barrels per day, compared with 3.3 million barrels per day in the first two months of this year. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM, June 30: Pr-Nd oxide prices rose overall in June. The initial upward momentum stemmed mainly from strong market expectations of large-scale production cuts and shutdowns at scrap recycling enterprises—industry participants expected this segment to reduce Pr-Nd oxide output by more than 1,000 mt, and the tight supply sentiment quickly pushed up quotes. However, toward month-end, actual production halts fell short of expectations, while new order growth at metal plants remained slow, limiting downstream acceptance of high-priced raw materials. As actual transaction prices for Pr-Nd oxide climbed to 750,000 yuan/mt, buyers became noticeably hesitant to take orders, weakening the upward momentum. Additionally, new bearish factors emerged, and most industry participants adopted a conservative stance on how high Pr-Nd prices could go, cooling the sentiment of chasing highs. For medium-heavy rare earths, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide showed strong performance in the first half of the month, mainly because upstream producers significantly reduced their willingness to sell, and low-priced cargoes were quickly absorbed by the market, driving prices sharply higher. But in the second half, orders at downstream metal plants did not improve materially, and metal companies were reluctant to accept high-priced raw materials, leaving buyers and sellers locked in a stalemate. As a result, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide prices entered a consolidation phase at highs. Although end-use demand orders have not yet shown marked improvement and buyers' purchasing power remains limited overall, the supply side of upstream oxides has indeed contracted—whether through partial production halts in the scrap sector or tighter shipments of medium-heavy rare earths, both provide bottom support for prices. Some industry participants believe that as Q3 approaches, rare earth prices are unlikely to see much downside room after moving past the traditional off-season, and upstream quotations have therefore remained firm. Overall, rare earth oxide prices are expected to hold up moderately in July, but the upside will still be constrained by the pace of demand recovery. The market should closely monitor downstream restocking trends and changes in macro sentiment.