SMM May 16 News: Metals market: Overnight, metals across both domestic and overseas markets fell collectively, with most declining over 1%. LME tin led the decline with a 4.03% drop, LME copper fell 3.15%, LME aluminum and SHFE tin dropped over 2% (LME aluminum down 2.36%, SHFE tin down 2.84%). LME lead, LME zinc, LME nickel, SHFE copper, and SHFE nickel all fell over 1% (LME lead down 1.39%, LME zinc down 1.35%, LME nickel down 1.9%, SHFE copper down 1.29%, SHFE nickel down 1.3%). SHFE lead and SHFE zinc fell less than 1% (SHFE lead down 0.6%, SHFE zinc down 0.44%). The alumina front-month contract fell 1.19%, and the casting aluminum front-month contract fell 0.99%. Overnight, ferrous metals generally declined. Stainless steel fell 0.94%, and iron ore fell 0.8%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar dropped over 0.6% (hot-rolled coil down 0.63%, rebar down 0.62%). Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.49%, coke fell 1.32%. Overnight, precious metals: COMEX gold fell 3.02% overnight, down 3.96% on the week; COMEX silver plunged 10.59%, down 5.65% on the week. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.13%, down 3.37% on the week; SHFE silver fell 6.79%, down 3.26% on the week. This was mainly pressured by rising US Treasury yields and a strengthening US dollar index, while the escalating US-Iran conflict intensified inflation concerns, further reinforcing market expectations of interest rate hikes. As of 8:24 AM on May 16, overnight closing prices: Macro front Wang Yi briefed the media on the China-US summit and the consensus reached. Wang Yi stated that the two heads of state interacted for nearly 9 hours and agreed that building a "China-US constructive strategic and stable relationship" was the most important political consensus. At the invitation of President Trump, President Xi Jinping will pay a state visit to the US this autumn. The economic and trade teams of both countries reached overall balanced and positive outcomes, including continuing to implement all consensus from previous negotiations, agreeing to establish a Trade Council and an Investment Council, addressing each other's concerns on agricultural product market access, and promoting the expansion of two-way trade under a reciprocal tariff reduction framework. China: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs provided consolidated responses on China-US economic and trade issues including semiconductors, rare earths, Boeing, and oil purchases. On May 15, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Guo Jiakun hosted a regular press conference, providing consolidated responses on China-US economic and trade issues. Regarding rare earth supply, China is committed to maintaining the stability of global supply chains. Regarding purchases of US oil and Boeing aircraft, China expressed willingness to jointly safeguard energy security and supply chain stability, emphasizing the mutually beneficial nature of China-US economic and trade relations. Qiushi Journal published an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping titled "Making the Real Economy Stronger, Better, and Bigger." The article pointed out that manufacturing is the foundation of the real economy, and that high-quality development of manufacturing should be given a more prominent position, with unwavering commitment to building a manufacturing powerhouse. It called for implementing industrial foundation re-engineering projects and major technical equipment breakthrough projects, supporting the development of specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative enterprises, and promoting high-end, intelligent, and green development of manufacturing. It also called for promoting the integrated cluster development of strategic emerging industries, and building a batch of new growth engines in areas such as next-generation information technology, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, and green environmental protection. US dollar: As of overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 99.28, up 1.45% on the week. Rising energy prices and prolonged shipping disruptions intensified inflationary pressures, pushing up market expectations that the US Fed will raise interest rates this year. US interest rate futures prices fell sharply on Friday, reflecting growing conviction among bond market investors that elevated inflation will force the US Fed to raise interest rates later this year or in early 2027. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market now prices in approximately a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the January FOMC meeting, with a 50% probability of a rate hike in December. US April retail sales grew further, but part of the increase may have come from rising inflation, as the Iran conflict pushed up energy and other commodity prices. Data released Thursday showed April retail sales rose 0.5%, in line with market expectations, while the March increase was revised down to 1.6%. The Iran conflict is driving up inflation; US Energy Information Administration data showed gasoline prices rose 12.3% in April. Despite surging oil prices, spending has not yet noticeably shifted away from other areas, thanks to larger tax refund amounts this year. IRS data showed that as of April 25, the average refund increased by $323 compared to the same period in 2025. However, this support is fading. Economists at PNC Financial Services Group stated, based on internal data analysis, that "consumers are spending their tax refunds faster than last year, especially among lower-income households," adding that "the amount of refund money being used to pay off credit card and other debts is also declining." (Jin10 Data APP) The Fed Board of Governors said in a statement on Friday that it had appointed Jerome Powell as chair pro tempore until his successor Kevin Warsh is officially sworn in. The US Fed stated: "This interim step of appointing the current chair as chair pro tempore is consistent with the practice followed during previous chair transitions." In response, Fed Governors Bowman and Milan stated that they did not support the interim appointment. On May 15, Powell's term as Fed Chairman expired. (Wallstreetcn) Analysts at BofA Global Research: If strong global economic growth prevents the US Fed from cutting interest rates, emerging markets could perform well. However, under scenarios of asymmetric growth (favoring the US) or a global stagflation shock, emerging markets would be more vulnerable. On the currency front, even though the election trigger is still months away, commodity outlook and monetary policy should continue to provide support for the Brazilian real. (Wallstreetcn) Data: Next week, China will release data including China's April total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, China's April industrial value added of enterprises above designated size YoY, China's 1-year Loan Prime Rate as of May 20, and China's April Swift RMB share in global payments. The US will release data including US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 16, US ADP employment weekly change for the week ending May 2, US April pending home sales index MoM, US April housing starts annualized, US April building permits, US May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US continuing jobless claims for the week ending May 9, US May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary, US May S&P Global Services PMI preliminary, US May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final, US May NAHB Housing Market Index, US May 1-year inflation expectations final, and US April Conference Board Leading Index MoM. The UK will release data including UK March 3-month ILO unemployment rate, UK April unemployment rate, UK April claimant count, UK April CPI MoM, UK April Retail Price Index MoM, UK May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, UK May Services PMI preliminary, UK May CBI Industrial Orders balance, UK May GfK Consumer Confidence Index, UK April public sector net borrowing, and UK April seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM. Germany will release data including Germany April PPI MoM, Germany May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, Germany June GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Germany Q1 non-seasonally adjusted GDP annual rate final, and Germany May IFO Business Climate Index. The Eurozone will release data including Eurozone March seasonally adjusted trade balance, Eurozone April CPI annual rate final, Eurozone April CPI MoM final, Eurozone May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, Eurozone March seasonally adjusted current account, and Eurozone May Consumer Confidence Index preliminary. Canada will release data including Canada April CPI MoM and Canada March retail sales MoM. Japan April core CPI annual rate, France May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, and Australia April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate will also be released. In addition, in China, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance, and a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. At 2:00 AM on May 21, the US Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting. ECB Chief Economist Lane and Fed Governor Waller will speak at an ECB research conference. 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen will deliver a speech. Crude oil: As of overnight close, the US-Iran standoff over Strait of Hormuz passage showed no signs of a breakthrough, and both benchmarks rose. WTI rose 4.44%, and Brent rose 3.55%. On the week, WTI rose 10.73%, and Brent rose 8.08%. As the Iran conflict has cut off energy supplies from the Persian Gulf, US refiners are ramping up fuel production to fill supply gaps in gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Analysts said this rapid growth trend is expected to push many refineries to their effective maximum capacity for at least the remainder of 2026. Reduced spare crude oil supply in Europe and other regions, combined with the difficulty of restoring post-conflict infrastructure in the Middle East in the short term, is driving up crude oil refining margins. Analysts said this rapid growth trend is expected to push many refineries to their effective maximum capacity for at least the remainder of 2026. US Energy Information Administration data showed that the so-called "capacity utilization rate" has climbed for three consecutive weeks and is now approaching 92%. In recent weeks, gasoline production hit a nine-month high, while jet fuel production reached its highest level since the summer of 2024. (Jin10 Data APP) US Energy Secretary Wright said at an event in Sabine Pass, Texas on Friday that the US will replenish every barrel of crude oil released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). He said: "We are releasing oil now, and for every barrel released, we will put back at least 1.2 barrels into the reserve. Ultimately, we will make the reserve larger than when we started." (Jin10 Data APP) According to US media reports, the Trump administration plans to streamline the permitting process for oil projects within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska to boost crude oil production in the US Arctic region. The Interior Department's move aims to establish a new permitting framework for the construction and operation of oil production facilities and related infrastructure. Under the plan, eligible projects could receive analysis and authorization more quickly, potentially within just 30 days. This initiative could benefit companies such as ConocoPhillips, Santos, and Repsol, which hold leases within the reserve, and accelerate government review of projects such as ConocoPhillips' Willow project, which had drawn strong opposition from climate activists. During the Iran conflict, with approximately 20% of global supply trapped in the Persian Gulf, the Trump administration has stepped up calls for US oil companies to increase production. (Jin10 Data APP) US import and export prices surged in April, posting the largest increase in over four years, driven by oil market pressures related to the Iran conflict, further signaling rising inflation in the world's largest economy. Data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the import price index rose 1.9% MoM, the largest increase since March 2022, with petroleum costs surging 19%. Export prices rose 3.3% MoM, also the largest increase in over four years. (Wallstreetcn)

[SMM Steel] Asian steelmakers are stepping up CBAM compliance efforts as the EU published its first CBAM certificate price at €75.36/mtCO2e for Q1 2026 and tightened steel safeguard quotas. Mills are increasing emissions reporting, third-party verification, and carbon cost optimization to remain competitive in the EU market. India’s HRC quota under EU safeguard category 1A was exhausted within days after April 1. JSW Steel said its HRC emissions intensity is 1.8-2 tCO2/mt, well below India’s default CBAM value of 4.7 tCO2/mt. Market participants expect steel pricing to increasingly diverge based on verified emissions intensity and carbon compliance.

[Price Review] This week, expectations for a US-Iran ceasefire continued to heat up, with US media reporting that the US and Iran were close to reaching a ceasefire agreement, driving a sharp pullback in crude oil and a retreat in medium- and long-term US Treasury yields from highs, which propelled a significant rally in precious metals, with silver's gains notably outpacing gold. US April ADP employment data released this week showed an addition of 109,000 jobs, hitting a nearly 15-month high and highlighting the overall resilience of the labor market. The market has now turned its focus to Friday evening's non-farm payrolls report. On expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, the latest CME data showed that market bets on near-term US Fed rate cuts remained at low levels, with a 93.5% probability of maintaining the current rate at the June FOMC meeting, corresponding to a 6.5% probability of a rate cut; the probability of holding rates steady at the July meeting reached 86.5%, with a 13.5% probability of a rate cut. Industrial demand side, downstream consumption remained sluggish, with downstream participants taking a cautious wait-and-see approach amid the silver price rebound, and only some downstream enterprises making just-in-time procurement. Gold/silver ratio side, as of May 6, the LBMA gold/silver ratio fell to 61. [Key Data] Bullish: On May 6, the US side stated it was close to reaching a ceasefire memorandum with Iran. If the agreement materializes, the pullback in oil prices would ease inflationary pressures and weaken the US Fed's hawkish stance. Dovish divisions within the US Fed persisted, with some officials still believing there was room for multiple interest rate cuts within the year, keeping the rate cut window open and preventing a complete reversal of easing expectations. Concerns over slowing US economic growth emerged, with market expectations for US Q1 GDP growth pulling back sharply from the previous reading. Stagflation and recession fears reinforced safe-haven allocation demand for silver. Bearish: US April ADP employment added 109,000 jobs, hitting a nearly 15-month high and highlighting the overall resilience of the labor market. The April FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged. CME data showed a 93.5% probability of holding rates steady in June, with expectations for rate cuts within the year contracting to 0–1 times, and the US dollar and real US Treasury yields held up well. China's silver industrial demand remained subdued, with downstream PV and electronics enterprises maintaining just-in-time procurement, and social inventory of spot silver ingots continued to accumulate. Key data and macro developments to watch in the near term include: May 7: Bank of England interest rate decision, ECB April monetary policy meeting minutes. May 8: US April non-farm payrolls report. May 12: US April CPI data. In addition, close attention should be paid to the progress of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. [Price Forecast] US-Iran ceasefire negotiations have entered a critical window. Although both sides have released signals of peace talks, core demands have not yet been reconciled. Whether the agreement ultimately materializes and whether new uncertainties emerge regarding navigation through the Strait of Hormuz will continue to dominate market risk appetite, serving as the core variable affecting silver's short-term trajectory. Against this backdrop, silver is expected to first see a volatile rebound and then consolidate at highs next week, with an overall bullish bias. On the fundamentals side in China, downstream consumption remained sluggish. With the rebound in spot silver prices, downstream enterprises exhibited strong wait-and-see sentiment. The upward trend in social inventory of spot silver ingots has yet to improve, and the mainstream spot market transactions are expected to maintain a slight discount relative to the Shanghai Gold Exchange TD price.

Starting from the new all-time high of USD 5,602 on January 29, the gold price has now been in a correction phase for over three months, characterized so far by two sharp downward waves, two recovery waves, and most recently by another downward wave since mid-April.

[Price Review] This week, Middle East geopolitical concerns resurfaced, with the US-Iran standoff continuing to escalate: on April 28, Iran demanded transit fees from vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz; on April 29, the US explicitly prohibited its individuals and entities from paying such fees to Iran, while warning non-US entities that payment would face significant sanctions risks; on April 30, Trump reiterated that Iran's abandonment of nuclear weapons was the bottom line for negotiations, stating that communication with Iran was underway via phone. Middle East tensions and energy price fluctuations further amplified uncertainties over the global economic outlook, and precious metals remained under pressure. On the US Fed front, the April FOMC meeting maintained interest rates unchanged as expected, with internal policy divergence persisting—one member advocated for an interest rate cut while three members opposed releasing easing signals. Powell broke decades of industry convention by announcing that after stepping down as Fed Chairman, he would remain as a governor until early 2028; he explicitly stated that the Trump administration's legal actions were threatening the independence of the US Fed's monetary policy-making while undermining the institution's own stability. Whether the conflict risks further escalation will continue to dominate global market risk appetite and energy price fluctuations, exerting significant impact on silver price trends. Industrial demand side, sluggish downstream consumption persisted, and as spot silver prices declined, only some downstream enterprises opted to stockpile small quantities on dips. Gold/silver ratio side, as of April 29, the LBMA gold/silver ratio rose to 62. [Key Data] Bearish: Middle East geopolitical conflict continued to escalate, with the US-Iran standoff over Strait of Hormuz transit fees intensifying. Core negotiation demands were completely opposed, and the deadlock over waterway blockade and military confrontation remained unresolved, pushing up sticky inflation expectations and reinforcing the US Fed's stance of maintaining higher interest rates for longer. The US Fed's April FOMC meeting maintained interest rates unchanged as expected, with internal policy divergence hitting a 34-year high. The overall stance was neutral-to-hawkish, with no clear interest rate cut signal released. Market expectations for rate cuts within the year cooled significantly, and the US dollar and US Treasury yields fluctuated at highs, continuously suppressing silver valuations. Inflation stickiness in the US and Europe exceeded expectations. US March CPI rose to the highest YoY and MoM since 2024, and the eurozone March core CPI final reading was unexpectedly revised upward. Persistent inflation further weakened the necessity for central bank easing. US labor market resilience exceeded expectations. Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 posted the largest single-week decline since February, significantly below market expectations, completely eliminating market bets on an emergency US Fed interest rate cut. China's silver industrial demand remained weak, with downstream PV and electronics enterprises maintaining only just-in-time procurement. Social inventory of spot silver ingots continued to accumulate, and transaction discounts kept widening. Bullish factors: US March PPI data significantly missed market expectations, with YoY, MoM, and core PPI gains all well below forecasts, releasing signals of marginal inflation easing and preserving room for subsequent Fed interest rate cuts. Dovish divergence within the Fed persisted, with one committee member advocating an immediate rate cut at the April meeting; some officials still believed multiple rate cuts remained possible this year, keeping the rate cut window open and preventing a complete reversal of easing expectations. Concerns over slowing US economic growth emerged, with market expectations for US Q1 GDP growth pulling back sharply from the previous reading; stagflation and recession fears reinforced safe-haven demand for silver. Key data and macro events to watch next week include: May 1: Eurozone April CPI preliminary reading, US April ISM Manufacturing PMI. May 6: US March JOLTs job openings, April ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. May 7: Bank of England interest rate decision, ECB April monetary policy meeting minutes. May 8: US April non-farm payrolls report. [Price Forecast] Recent precious metals market trading logic continues to revolve around re-escalating Middle East geopolitical concerns, inflation expectations driven by high oil prices, US Fed monetary policy expectations, and Fed Chairman transition and internal divergence. On the China fundamentals side, downstream consumption remained sluggish; as spot silver prices declined, only some downstream enterprises chose to stockpile small quantities on dips. The upward trend in spot silver ingot social inventory has yet to improve, and the market expects mainstream spot transaction discounts to remain within a narrow discount range relative to the SGE TD price. Silver prices are expected to remain under pressure with volatile trading next week.

The core logic of the South American steel market is that end-user demand drives everything. Consumption demand is the starting point, filled jointly by local production and imports; imports act as a regulating valve rather than a driving force.

SMM April 30: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly fell, with SHFE copper edging up slightly. SHFE aluminum fell 0.41%, SHFE lead fell 0.66%, SHFE zinc fell 0.8%, SHFE tin rose 0.44%, and SHFE nickel edged down 0.02%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.3%, and the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.11%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 2.52%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.46%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 0.97%. Ferrous metals all rose, with iron ore up 0.89%, rebar up 0.69%, hot-rolled coil up 0.77%, and stainless steel up 1.43%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.42%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.66%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper rose 0.42%, LME aluminum fell 0.32%, LME lead rose 0.26%, LME zinc fell 0.09%, LME tin rose 0.97%, and LME nickel rose 0.86%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.28% and COMEX silver rose 0.79%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.29%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.29%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.81%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 0.89%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.52% to 2,296.2 points. As of 11:40 on April 30, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 320 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 240 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 101,575 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,475 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory saw a significant decline today... Macro Front China: [NBS: April Manufacturing PMI at 50.3%, China's Overall Economic Output Remained in Expansion Territory] The NBS Survey Center for Services and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released China's April PMI today. The manufacturing PMI continued to operate in expansion territory after rebounding into expansion territory in March, indicating that the overall manufacturing prosperity level remained stable and the manufacturing sector maintained a sound operating trend. In April, China's manufacturing PMI stood at 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage point MoM, remaining in expansion territory for the second consecutive month. [PBOC reverse repo operations achieved net injection of 125.7 billion yuan for the day and net withdrawal of 197.9 billion yuan for the week] The PBOC conducted 126.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, the net injection for the day was 125.7 billion yuan. This week, the PBOC conducted a total of 414.1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations. As a total of 600 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 12 billion yuan of reverse repos matured this week, the net withdrawal for the week was 197.9 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data) US dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 98.98. The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, with notable internal divisions emerging. Fed Chairman Powell stated at the press conference that although someone voted against maintaining the dovish language in the statement at the most recent monetary policy meeting, he believed officials were not inclined to raise rates. Powell said: "People are not saying we need to raise rates now; it's more of a discussion about whether the Fed should adopt a neutral stance on the policy outlook." Fed Chairman Powell stated at the press conference that monetary policy may be in a range that is neutral in its impact on the economy. He said: "I think we are very close to the neutral rate, which is probably in the range of 3% to 4%, and the current federal funds target rate range is 3.5% to 3.75%." He added: "If we need to raise rates, we will signal and raise them, and vice versa." Fed Chairman Powell said Wednesday that continuing to serve as a governor after his chairmanship ends is to help stabilize the Fed before political pressure subsides. Powell said at the press conference: "As long as I feel it is appropriate to stay, I will stay." He added: "I don't want to be some kind of high-profile dissenter or anything like that." US President Trump said: "Mr. Too Late" Powell wants to stay at the Fed because he can't find a job anywhere else — nobody wants him. US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that outgoing Fed Chairman Powell remaining as a Fed governor would be extraordinary. For someone who has always emphasized norms, his unilateral decision runs counter to tradition. Kevin Warsh will bring a new chapter to the US Fed with a clear accountability system, effective governance mechanisms, and sound policymaking. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through June was 99%, with a 1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of maintaining rates unchanged through July was 99%, with a 1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of maintaining rates unchanged through September was 98.8%, with a 1.2% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report maintained its previous view, expecting one 25bps interest rate cut in H2 under the baseline scenario after Warsh assumes the chairmanship. We believe close attention should be paid to speeches by the 12 sitting voting members going forward, as the US Fed's monetary policy path will depend more on the vote balance among FOMC members, while the guiding role of the Fed Chairman's personal remarks on markets has diminished compared to the past. A CICC research report stated that from a fundamental theoretical perspective, the US Fed should still and needs to cut interest rates approximately twice, which is one reason we are more optimistic than the market on rate cuts. As long as oil prices do not stay persistently above $100 through year-end, the high base effect driving inflation to pull back can provide room for the US Fed to cut interest rates. However, in practice, this will require cooperation from oil prices and Trump. The stalemate over the Iran situation keeping oil prices staying high, and Powell's reluctance to fully step back due to concerns over the investigation causing divisions within the US Fed, are not problems Warsh can single-handedly resolve after taking over in June. The key lies with Trump — if a compromise is reached swiftly and the investigation into Powell is conclusively ended, the prospects for interest rate cuts will gradually open up. On the data front: Data to be released today include: France Q1 GDP year-on-year preliminary, France April CPI month-on-month preliminary, Switzerland April KOF Leading Economic Indicator, Germany April seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany Q1 non-seasonally adjusted GDP year-on-year preliminary, Eurozone April CPI year-on-year preliminary, Eurozone April CPI month-on-month preliminary, Eurozone Q1 GDP year-on-year preliminary, Eurozone March unemployment rate, UK Bank of England interest rate decision as of April 30, Eurozone ECB deposit facility rate as of April 30, Eurozone ECB main refinancing rate as of April 30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 25, US March core PCE price index year-on-year, US March personal spending month-on-month, US Q1 Employment Cost Index quarter-on-quarter, US Q1 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US Q1 real personal consumption expenditure quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US March core PCE price index month-on-month, and US April Chicago PMI. Also worth watching: the US Fed FOMC interest rate decision; Fed Chairman Powell's monetary policy press conference; Google's earnings call; earnings calls from Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta; Samsung Electronics' earnings call; the Bank of England's interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report; Bank of England Governor Bailey's monetary policy press conference; the ECB's interest rate decision; ECB President Lagarde's monetary policy press conference. Notably, the Shanghai Gold Exchange, SHFE, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and DCE had no night session trading on April 30 ahead of Labour Day holiday. Crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices in both markets continued the previous trading day's rally, with WTI up 1.96% and Brent up 2.16%. The Strait of Hormuz standoff is pushing the oil market from a short-term shock toward lasting repricing. Brent crude rose for consecutive sessions as Trump insisted on a maritime "blockade" against Iran. Traders' optimism that a three-week ceasefire could restore Gulf energy flows was fading. (Wallstreetcn) Bloomberg reported on the 29th that, according to a senior White House official, the US government was seeking to "seize" two Iran-linked oil tankers recently intercepted by the US Navy. The official said the DOJ had initiated "seizure" proceedings but did not elaborate on what the process entailed, nor whether it indicated the US planned to "seize" the crude oil aboard. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity citing "operational security," declined to disclose how the vessels would ultimately be handled or comment on their current routes. According to the US Department of Defense, the US Navy intercepted and boarded two tankers "transporting oil from Iran" in the Indian Ocean on the 20th and 22nd respectively. The two tankers continued sailing in the Indian Ocean over the following days and appeared to have changed course multiple times. (Xinhua) (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM April 29: Metals market: Overnight, domestic market base metals fell nearly across the board. SHFE copper fell 1.15%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.43%, SHFE lead rose 0.18%. SHFE zinc fell 0.4%. SHFE tin fell 0.52%. SHFE nickel rose 1.7%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.08%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.8%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.06%, stainless steel edged up slightly, rebar fell 0.28%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.3%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.59%, coke fell 0.44%. Overnight overseas market metals, LME base metals generally fell. LME copper fell 1.45%. LME aluminum fell 0.95%, LME lead fell 0.61%. LME zinc fell 1.05%. LME tin fell 0.68%. LME nickel rose 1.52%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.79%, COMEX silver fell 2.59%. Overnight SHFE gold fell 1.31%, SHFE silver fell 2.35%. As of 7:07 AM on April 29, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [China to Implement Zero Tariffs on All African Countries with Diplomatic Relations Starting May 1, 2026] The Tariff Commission of the State Council issued an announcement that from May 1, 2026 to April 30, 2028, zero tariffs would be implemented in the form of preferential tax rates for 20 African countries that have established diplomatic relations with China but are not classified as least developed countries. For tariff-quota products, only the in-quota tariff rates would be reduced to zero, while out-of-quota tariff rates would remain unchanged. During the 2-year implementation period, China will continue to promote the negotiation and signing of common development economic partnership agreements with relevant African countries. [MIIT: Next Step Will Be to Launch "AI + Software" Special Action] Ke Jixin, Vice Minister of MIIT, stated at a State Council routine policy briefing on the 28th that MIIT will next promote the extension of producer services toward specialization and the high-end of the value chain, and accelerate innovation and development in the software and information technology services industry. In particular, regarding AI empowerment of the information services industry, MIIT will launch an "AI + Software" special action, accelerate R&D and application of intelligent programming, and foster new business models such as Model-as-a-Service and Agent-as-a-Service. MIIT will further strengthen open-source ecosystem development and promote intelligent upgrades of basic software and industrial software. US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.14%, closing at 98.63. This week is most likely the last monetary policy meeting chaired by Powell, and rates are expected to remain unchanged. The market's focus was on the policy statement wording and Powell's characterization of war-induced energy inflation at the press conference. (Wall Street Jianzhi) Former US Fed Vice Chairman and economist Roger Ferguson stated, "In terms of the dual mandate, the Fed will say the labour market is roughly in a stable state right now. On the inflation mandate, there is still a lot of work to do (as inflation remains elevated at 3%)." He expected the Fed to say: "We will stay put for now and see how this all plays out." Similarly, Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle expected the post-meeting statement to acknowledge improved employment market conditions and rising inflation data, but maintain existing policy guidance unchanged. We expect a majority will still support keeping rates unchanged, with only one dissent, same as in March. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged in April was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut by June was 2.6%, while the probability of holding rates unchanged was 97.4%. (Jin Shi Data) John Luke Tyner, head of fixed income at Aptus Capital Advisors, stated in a report that this week's Fed meeting would provide clues as to which officials lean toward reacting to energy-related inflation and which view it as transitory. He said the meeting's mild tone, with no dot plot and most likely no policy action, "paves the way for a heated June," when Kevin Warsh will likely chair the meeting. Tyner noted that June will bring a new dot plot and more time to assess the Middle East situation and its impact on the economy and inflation. (Jin Shi Data) Other currencies: Eurozone consumers' inflation expectations rose across the board in March, a worrying signal for the ECB as it assesses the ripple effects of the Iran conflict. According to the ECB's monthly consumer survey released Tuesday, prices over the next 12 months were expected to rise 4%, up from 2.5% in February. Three-year inflation expectations rose from 2.5% to 3.0%, slightly below the 3.1% peak reached during the last price surge in October 2022. Five-year inflation expectations edged up from 2.3% to 2.4%, drifting further from the ECB's 2% medium-term inflation target. The ECB is closely monitoring whether elevated energy costs will prompt workers to demand pay raises and lead enterprises to raise selling prices. Second-round inflation effects beyond commodities such as gasoline could trigger rate hikes, although Thursday's policy meeting is expected to keep rates unchanged. (Wall Street Insights) On the macro front: Data to be released today include Australia's March non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, Switzerland's April ZEW Investor Confidence Index, Eurozone April Industrial Confidence Index, Eurozone April Economic Sentiment Index, Germany's preliminary April CPI MoM, US March annualized total housing starts, US March durable goods orders MoM, US March total building permits, and the Bank of Canada interest rate decision as of April 29. Also noteworthy: the Bank of Canada will release its interest rate decision and monetary policy report; the US Senate Banking Committee will vote on advancing Waller's nomination as Fed Chairman, and if passed, the full Senate will hold a confirmation vote; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures extended their rally, with WTI up 3.37% and Brent up 2.74%. Trump stated on social media that Iran had requested the US to lift its naval blockade on the critical shipping route and reopen it as soon as possible. Reports indicated that Pakistani mediators expected Tehran to submit a revised proposal within days. However, Trump subsequently expressed dissatisfaction with Iran's latest peace proposal, citing that it would delay nuclear negotiations, significantly dampening market expectations for a near-term resolution of the conflict. Iran claimed it could "outlast Trump," suggesting the situation could fall into a prolonged stalemate. Wall Street Insights noted that the UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, and would gradually increase oil production. The announcement briefly caused oil prices to pull back before quickly recovering. (Wall Street Insights) On April 28 local time, the UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026. UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei told media on April 28 that the UAE chose to exit OPEC at this time primarily considering factors such as current restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and believed the decision would have limited impact on the global oil market. Al Mazrouei told CNN reporters that the UAE's announcement came at the "right time" and would not significantly affect the oil market or prices, as passage through the Strait of Hormuz was restricted, including for the UAE. This decision would help ease pressure on prices. (Jin10 Data) Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, stated that in the short to medium term, given that global inventory has been depleted and reserves need to be rebuilt, the market should be able to absorb the increased production from the UAE. However, over time, this exit raised a broader strategic question: if other producing countries began to prioritize market share over quota discipline, OPEC's ability to manage an orderly market through coordinated supply adjustments could face increasing scrutiny. HSBC said in a research note on Tuesday that the UAE's exit from OPEC+ would have a relatively small short-term impact on the oil market, but over time could undermine the organization's supply discipline and price management capability. HSBC expected little change in global oil supply in the near term, as crude oil exports from the Gulf region had remained restricted since the end of February. During the period of constrained shipping routes, the UAE had limited room to increase production. The Abu Dhabi crude oil pipeline had a daily transport capacity of approximately 1.8 million barrels and was most likely already operating at full capacity. Once the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane resumed navigation, the UAE would no longer be bound by OPEC+ production quotas and could gradually increase production. The bank estimated that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) daily production is expected to rise to over 4.5 million barrels, while the OPEC+ quota during May 2026 was approximately 3.4 million barrels per day. HSBC said any supply increments are expected to be released in phases over 12 to 18 months, rather than immediately.

Tianjin SIEMAG TECBERG Machinery Co Ltd has reached a major milestone with the successful acceptance of two sets of hoisting equipment at the SDE 2# coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia. Developed by the Qinfa Group with an investment of approximately US$300 million, the SDE 2# project is expected to achieve an annual output of up to 10 million tonnes of coal once fully stabilized. This project represents SIEMAG TECBERG’s first foray into the Indonesian market, featuring advanced Koepe winders designed for a hoisting depth of 386 meters. The successful delivery underscores the reliability of the company’s technology in tropical environments and provides critical infrastructure for a site holding approximately 293 million tonnes of proven coal reserves.

SMM April 23 News: Metals market: As of the overnight close, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets generally rose, with SHFE lead being the only decliner, down 0.03%. LME tin closed flat at $50,595/mt. LME copper and LME aluminum rose over 2%, with LME copper up 2.4% and LME aluminum up 2.58%. LME nickel rose 1.74%, and SHFE copper rose 1.4%. Other metals gained less than 1%, with the alumina front-month contract up 0.81% and the casting aluminum front-month contract up 0.64%. Overnight, ferrous metals generally rose, with iron ore being the only decliner, down 0.25%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.62%. Coking coal and coke side, coking coal rose 0.67% and coke rose 1.01%. Overnight, precious metals side, COMEX gold rose 0.82% and COMEX silver rose 1.56%. In China, SHFE gold fell 0.19% and SHFE silver rose 0.65%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:43 AM on April 23: Macro Front China: [Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction: Major Policy Document Issued by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council] On April 22, the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council released the "Opinions on Achieving Higher-Level and Higher-Quality Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction." Energy conservation and carbon reduction serve as a key lever for advancing carbon peaking and carbon neutrality and accelerating the green transformation of development models, and as an important pillar for safeguarding national energy security and promoting industrial quality upgrading. The Opinions require consistently adhering to the principle of conservation priority, integrating energy conservation and carbon reduction throughout the entire process and all aspects of economic and social development, achieving higher-level and higher-quality energy conservation and carbon reduction, firmly curbing unreasonable growth in total energy consumption, continuously improving energy and resource output efficiency, and effectively reducing carbon emissions at the source, so as to provide strong support for achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality and accelerating the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development. The Opinions set out specific arrangements in areas including coordinating energy conservation, carbon reduction, and green transformation; vigorously advancing energy conservation and carbon reduction in key sectors; further strengthening supervision and management of energy conservation and carbon reduction; and reinforcing support and safeguards for energy conservation and carbon reduction work. US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.23% to 98.61. According to a Reuters poll of economists, the US Fed will have to wait at least six months before cutting interest rates this year, as the energy shock triggered by the conflict has once again intensified already elevated inflation. In the April 17-21 survey, 56 out of 103 economists forecast that the US Fed's benchmark interest rate would remain in the 3.50%-3.75% range through the end of September, whereas in the late March survey, nearly 70% of economists expected at least one interest rate cut by then. In an early March survey, most economists expected an interest rate cut by the end of June. In the latest survey, 71 economists still expected at least one interest rate cut this year, with the median estimate pointing to only one cut, in line with the dot plot projections released by the US Fed last month. Currently, nearly one-third of economists expect rates to remain unchanged this year, nearly double the proportion in the previous survey. (Jin10 Data APP) Reuters poll: 56 out of 103 economists believed the US Fed would keep the federal funds rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range through September (in the late March survey, 56 out of 82 economists forecast at least one interest rate cut by September). (Jin10 Data APP) A report from Oxford Economics noted that Kevin Warsh favors major reforms to the US Fed and its communication strategy — but any reforms he wishes to implement would be constrained by the need to build consensus among US Fed officials. The report stated: "The Fed Chairman cannot unilaterally make such reforms." The report also mentioned that potential changes to the US Fed's communication strategy could include reducing the number of annual FOMC meetings and not holding press conferences after every committee meeting. The report further noted that Warsh opposes the use of forward guidance as a policy tool and opposes the publication of economic projections. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Data to be released today include US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18, US April S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, US April S&P Global Services PMI preliminary reading, UK March public sector net borrowing, UK April Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, UK April Services PMI preliminary reading, UK April CBI Industrial Orders balance, France April Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, Eurozone April Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, and Germany April Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading. In addition, the Ministry of Commerce will hold its 4th regular press conference in April. ECB President Lagarde will deliver a speech, and the second round of ambassador-level talks between Israel and Lebanon will be held at the US State Department. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices on both markets rose together, with WTI up 3.57% and Brent up 3.12%. Crude oil futures rose for a third consecutive trading day, as expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz were dashed once again. Ritterbusch & Associates stated in a report that Trump's extension of the ceasefire agreement removed the immediate possibility of escalation, but negotiations could be delayed, and the US blockade would likely remain in place indefinitely. Exports via alternative routes and the release of strategic petroleum reserves partially offset the impact of the strait closure on oil prices, while "price-related demand destruction is becoming a hotter topic." (Jin10 Data APP) The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that US crude oil inventory increased last week, while gasoline and refined product inventories declined, and total US exports reached record levels due to supply disruptions caused by the Iran conflict. The EIA said crude oil inventory increased by 1.9 million barrels to 465.7 million barrels in the week ending April 17, compared with expectations of a 1.2 million barrel decrease. The EIA said crude oil inventory at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub increased by 806,000 barrels. Despite the unexpected inventory build, oil prices still rose. (Jin10 Data APP) Sources: The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) blend crude oil export plan for May was set at 1.8 million barrels per day, up from the April plan of 1.65 million barrels per day. Kazakhstan plans to reroute some crude oil originally scheduled for delivery to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline in May to CPC exports. (Reuters) (Jin10 Data APP)