SMM, July 20: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market showed mixed performance. SHFE tin rose 1.65%. SHFE copper edged up 0.29%, while SHFE aluminum fell 0.32%. SHFE lead edged up, while SHFE zinc fell 0.63%. SHFE nickel fell 0.13%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 0.3%, while the most-traded alumina contract rose 1.23%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.69%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.72%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 1.26%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.33%, while rebar and hot-rolled coil (HRC) fell 0.45% and 0.54%, respectively. Stainless steel fell 0.27%. Coke and coking coal: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.2%, while the most-traded coke contract fell 0.99%. Overseas base metals market, as of 11:45, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper rose 0.2%, LME aluminum fell 0.16%, and LME lead fell 0.21%. LME zinc and LME tin both rose 0.31%. LME nickel rose 0.21%. Precious metals, as of 11:45, COMEX gold rose 0.2%, and COMEX silver rose 1.85%. Domestic precious metals market: SHFE gold rose 0.7%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 2.47%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 0.33%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 0.84%. As of the midday close, the most-traded containerized freight (European route) contract rose 6.4% to 2,809 points. As of 11:45 on July 20, midday market overview for some futures: Spot Prices and Fundamentals Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 170 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 20 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,180 yuan/mt, up 350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,075 yuan/mt, up 340 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventories saw a significant decline after the weekend, mainly driven by a sharp increase in warehouse withdrawals... Macro Front Domestic front: [MIIT: Continuously Implement the New Round of Work Plans for Stable Growth in Sectors Such as Machinery and Automobiles, While Expanding High-Quality Supply and Effective Demand Across the Board] The State Council Information Office held a press conference to present the industrial and information technology development situation in H1 2026. Wang Weiming, chief engineer of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, stated that in H1, the export delivery value of the equipment industry rose 18.2% YoY, contributing nearly 50% to the growth of industrial exports. Next, MIIT will make every effort to promote the transformation and upgrading of the equipment industry. [MIIT: From January to May, new shipbuilding orders accounted for 81.2% of the global total, firmly ranking first in global market share] At a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, Wang Weiming, Chief Engineer of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that in the ship and offshore engineering equipment sector, from January to May, China’s new shipbuilding orders accounted for 81.2% of the global total, firmly ranking first in global market share. [MIIT: To issue guidelines for building a systematic computing power standards framework, and promote standards such as market-based pricing for computing power] The State Council Information Office held a press conference to brief on industrial and information technology development in 2026 H1. Xie Cun, spokesperson for the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and Director-General of the Information and Communications Development Department, said that next, MIIT will continue to follow a systematic work approach focused on points, chains, networks, surfaces, and systems, optimize the deployment of computing power infrastructure resources, build interconnected and interoperable computing power periods, and improve the efficiency of computing power resource utilization. In terms of strengthening efforts at the “point” level, it will optimize the supply-side deployment of computing power resources, coordinate factors such as industrial development and energy supply, promote the development of intelligent computing clusters and coordinated development between computing power and electricity, create a tiered computing power layout, and strengthen overall monitoring of computing power. In addition, it will issue guidelines for building a systematic computing power standards framework, and promote standards such as evaluation of computing power service capabilities and market-based pricing for computing power. [Unchanged for the 14th consecutive month! July LPR quotes released: 3.5% for 5-year and above, 3% for 1-year] China’s July Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was released on July 20, with both the 1-year and 5-year and above LPR left unchanged. An announcement authorized by the PBOC and released by the National Interbank Funding Center showed that the LPR on July 20, 2026 was: 3.0% for the 1-year LPR and 3.5% for the 5-year and above LPR. The above LPRs are valid until the next LPR release. The 7-day reverse repo rate, the main policy rate, has remained unchanged for 14 consecutive months since it was cut in May 2025; therefore, the pricing basis for this month’s LPR quotes did not change. The last LPR adjustment was in May 2025, when both the 1-year and 5-year and above LPR were lowered by 10 basis points. [PBOC net injected 174.5 billion yuan into the open market today] The PBOC conducted 398.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today at an operating rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous level. Reverse repos worth 224 billion yuan matured today. US dollar: As of 11:45, the US dollar index fell 0.04% to 100.71. Oil prices have risen by over 20% this month, reigniting inflation concerns. Fed Chairman Warsh has made it clear that curbing inflation is the top priority. The market is now focused on the upcoming July PMI data this week to judge whether the resilience of the US economy is sufficient to support the Fed's interest rate hikes in September or October. (Wall Street View) According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 85.6%, with a 14.4% probability of a cumulative 25bp hike. The probability of no change in September is 38.5%, with a 53.5% probability of a cumulative 25bp hike and a 7.9% probability of a cumulative 50bp hike. (Jinshi Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of Canada June CPI MoM, US June CB Leading Index MoM, China June year-to-date installed power generation capacity, China June year-to-date installed power generation capacity yearly rate, and more. Crude Oil: As of 11:45 am, oil prices on both exchanges extended gains from the previous trading day, with WTI up 2.24% and Brent up 2.41%. The US-Iran conflict escalated further over the weekend, pushing oil prices higher. According to CCTV News reports, on July 19 local time, US Energy Secretary Wright stated that military operations against Iran will continue until President Trump achieves his military objectives. According to CCTV News, Iranian sources said on the 19th that navigational traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to zero, and the strait will remain closed as long as the US continues its provocative actions. Furthermore, Morgan Stanley pointed out that Europe faces a diesel supply crunch as a series of significant supply challenges coincide, with refining margins in the region hitting record highs while inventories continue to decline. “The current situation is indeed very tight,” analysts including Martin Ratz said in a July 19 report. “Our supply-demand model shows that European diesel inventories will fall to multi-year lows by year-end.” The analysts stated, “The true bottleneck in the oil system at the moment lies in refining, not crude oil,” noting that some African oil cargoes remain unsold and forward prices in certain parts of the market are trending bearish. “At the center of all this is the diesel market, particularly in Europe.” (Jinshi Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Daily Review: Rate-Hike Expectations Continue to Weigh on Silver, Spot Transactions Stay at Parity] SMM, July 20 – Resilient US employment data combined with lingering inflation risks kept rate-hike expectations elevated, and climbing US Treasury yields further pressured silver prices. In the spot market, both supply and demand were weak, transactions hovered near parity, and wait-and-see sentiment was heavy.

SMM, July 18: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight domestic base metals nearly all rose. SHFE copper rose 0.15%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.22%, SHFE lead rose 0.69%, SHFE zinc fell 0.85%, SHFE tin rose 1.57%. SHFE nickel fell 0.28%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures rose 1.64%, and the most-traded cast aluminum futures rose 0.67%. Most ferrous metals fell in last Friday's overnight session. Stainless steel fell 0.3%, iron ore fell 0.46%, rebar fell 0.35%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.36%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.34%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.56%. In overseas metals last Friday overnight, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.11%. LME aluminum fell 0.33%, LME lead rose 0.96%. LME zinc fell 1.48%. LME tin rose 0.73%. LME nickel fell 0.38%. In precious metals last Friday overnight : COMEX gold rose 0.77%, but its weekly performance was down, falling 2.2% for the week; COMEX silver rose 0.06%, posting two consecutive weekly losses, down 6.56% for the week. The most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.67% last Friday overnight, but recorded two consecutive weekly declines, falling 3.07% for the week; the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.05%, but declined for two straight weeks, down 7.85% for the week. Data from the World Gold Council showed that gold prices weakened in June, erasing earlier gains, and H1 ended with a decline. Despite outflows in June, Chinese market gold ETFs still achieved significant inflows in H1, pushing total AUM slightly higher to 243 billion yuan, with total holdings increasing by 29 mt to 277 mt. In June, Chinese market gold ETFs saw outflows of 15 billion yuan, marking the weakest monthly performance on record. (From Wallstreetcn APP) As of 8:45 on July 18, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Ministry of Finance and Two Other Departments Adjust Consumption Tax Policy for Certain Batteries] On July 17, the Ministry of Finance announced that starting from September 1, 2026, mercury-free primary batteries, nickel-metal hydride batteries (also known as NiMH batteries), lithium primary batteries, lithium-ion batteries, and all-vanadium flow batteries will be subject to a consumption tax at a rate of 2%; starting from September 1, 2027, these battery products will be subject to a consumption tax at a rate of 4%. Starting from April 1, 2027, solar cells (also known as solar cells) will be subject to a consumption tax at a rate of 2%; starting from April 1, 2028, solar cells will be subject to a consumption tax at a rate of 4%. From September 1, 2026 to December 31, 2028, consumption tax will be exempted for sodium-ion batteries, solid-state batteries, fuel cells, as well as for perovskite cells, tandem cells, and gallium arsenide cells among solar cells. [MIIT: Automotive Producers Required to Firmly Resist Irrational Competition and Strengthen Product Testing, Verification, and Safety Assessment] On July 17, the Equipment Industry Department I of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) convened a symposium for key automotive producers, deploying efforts to further regulate competition order in the automotive industry, enhance production conformity and quality safety levels of automotive products, and carry out key tasks such as safety risk and hazard investigations and inspections and supervision of automotive products. (from Wall Street CN app) [Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: Advance Urban Renewal with High Quality and Intensify the Implementation of the Renovation of Old Urban Residential Communities] On July 17, the Party Leadership Group of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development held an expanded study session of the theoretical study center group. The meeting stressed that carrying out urban work in the new era and on the new journey is a glorious mission with arduous tasks. It called for advancing urban renewal with high quality, promoting urban governance with high efficiency, and building “four-good” construction of good houses, good residential communities, good neighborhoods, and good urban districts to high standards. It emphasized intensifying efforts to implement livelihood-related projects such as the renovation of old urban residential communities, the construction of complete communities, the improvement of property service quality, the environmental remediation of back alleys and lanes, the development of pocket parks, and the opening and sharing of green spaces. It called for making great efforts to solve the most pressing difficulties and problems faced by the people, such as the installation of elevators, parking, and charging, striving to make people’s urban life more convenient, comfortable, and beautiful, and seizing the momentum to open up a new landscape in the modernization and construction of people-oriented cities. (China Construction News) [The “Several Measures to Further Promote the Development of ‘AI+Manufacturing’ in Shanghai” Issued] The Shanghai Municipal Commission of Economy and Informatization has issued the “Several Measures to Further Promote the Development of ‘AI+Manufacturing’ in Shanghai.” It mentions promoting breakthroughs in key and core technologies. Support will be provided for breakthroughs in technologies such as knowledge graph integration and text-to-3D parts design, focusing on frontier fields including industrial vertical large models, AI programming large models, physical AI, industrial agents, industrial software, and the industrial Internet, with a maximum support of 20 million yuan. For the R&D of comprehensive security solutions for industrial large models and agents, a maximum support of 10 million yuan will be provided. The measures aim to reduce the cost of using intelligent elements. Industrial intelligent computing cloud platforms are encouraged to provide manufacturing enterprises with low-code agent development platforms and free trials of industrial agents, distribute platform token trial coupons, and introduce computing power benefit packages for enterprises. Support will be given for renting non-affiliated intelligent computing resources to carry out the R&D and application of industrial large models and industrial agents, with a maximum subsidy of 40 million yuan. Support will be provided for the deployment of industrial vertical applications by calling on third-party large models or adopting privately deployed third-party large models, with a maximum subsidy of 5 million yuan. Support will also be given for the procurement of high-quality corpora to facilitate the R&D and application of industrial vertical large models, industrial AI agents, etc., with a maximum subsidy of 5 million yuan. (Jin10 Data App) In terms of the US dollar: Last Friday overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 100.76. On the weekly chart: the US dollar index fell, dropping 0.2% for the week. According to the latest survey, US consumer sentiment surged to a five-month high in early July, boosted by falling gasoline prices. The survey results released on Friday showed that the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for July rose to 54.4 from 49.5 in June, compared to market expectations of 51. From June through early July, gasoline prices fell steadily, effectively easing household budget pressures. However, renewed tensions in the Middle East have since begun to push oil prices higher and clouded the inflation outlook further. The survey's coverage period was from June 23 to July 13, though the report noted that more than 70% of responses were completed before the US carried out airstrikes on Iran in early July. The improvement in consumer confidence was broad-based across age and income groups as well as political party affiliations. (from Wall Street News App) US housing starts surged in June after a sharp decline in the previous month, driven primarily by a rebound in apartment construction. Official data released on Friday showed that housing starts increased 19% to a 1.43 million annualized rate, the highest level since March and exceeding economists' expectations. Multifamily housing starts jumped more than 76% to a 532,000 annualized rate, following a nearly 40% plunge the previous month. Meanwhile, single-family housing starts fell 0.2%, declining again after builders experienced an overall sluggish spring. The rebound in multifamily construction underscores the month-to-month fluctuations in the data, especially in the apartment sector. However, high home prices and high mortgage rates have been suppressing demand for single-family homes, and these factors may also be supporting apartment demand. At the same time, single-family homebuilders have generally been facing high inventory and weak demand. This has forced many builders to entice buyers through sales incentives. Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Global Advisors, said the US dollar has been supported this year by safe-haven inflows and market pricing of US Fed rate hikes, but these factors have already been priced into the exchange rate, so the dollar is set to resume its multi-year depreciation trend. Her baseline forecast is that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged for the entire year, but Mokuta says the risk of one rate hike remains. Even if a hike occurs, it has already been priced into the US dollar and would thus have little additional impact; if a hike fails to materialize, it would weaken the US dollar. As concerns over the US fiscal outlook persist, the US dollar will return to its long-term depreciation trend. (from Wallstreetcn APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of China's one-year loan prime rate as of July 20, Germany's June PPI MoM, Canada's June CPI MoM, US June Conference Board Leading Index MoM, Switzerland's June trade balance, UK ILO unemployment rate for the three months to May, UK June public sector net borrowing, UK June unemployment rate, UK June claimant count change, Germany's July ZEW economic sentiment index, Eurozone's July ZEW economic sentiment index, US ADP employment change for the week ending July 4, UK June CPI MoM, UK June RPI MoM, China's June SWIFT RMB global payment share, Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for June, UK July CBI industrial orders balance, Eurozone's ECB deposit facility rate as of July 23, Eurozone's ECB main refinancing rate as of July 23, Canada's May retail sales MoM, US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 18, Eurozone's July consumer confidence index flash estimate, UK July GfK consumer confidence index, Japan's June core CPI YoY, Germany's August GfK consumer confidence index, UK June seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM, France's July manufacturing PMI flash estimate, Germany's July manufacturing PMI flash estimate, Eurozone's July manufacturing PMI flash estimate, UK July manufacturing PMI flash estimate, UK July services PMI flash estimate, US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash estimate, US July S&P Global services PMI flash estimate, and US June new home sales annualized, among other data. Additionally, this week: The ECB will announce its interest rate decision; ECB President Lagarde will hold a press conference on monetary policy. On the crude oil front: Last Friday, both crude oil futures surged in overnight trading, with WTI up 4.46% and Brent up 4.78%. On the weekly chart: WTI futures posted a second straight weekly gain, rising 14.51% for the week; Brent futures also rose for a second consecutive week, jumping 16.12% for the week. On Friday, the Middle East situation further deteriorated, and escalating geopolitical tensions drove crude oil sharply higher. Data released by international services provider Kpler on the 17th showed that vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued to weaken on the 16th, with the confirmed number of ships passing through the strait that day dropping to 8, the lowest level in nearly three weeks. (From Wallstreetcn APP) IEA Executive Director Birol Fatih warned on the 16th that if oil shipments via the Strait of Hormuz are not restored within weeks, global energy security will be in jeopardy. According to UK sources, Birol said at an event held by the Council on Foreign Relations that oil supply security remains a key concern, and if the situation in the Strait of Hormuz does not improve in the coming weeks, the world should be worried. He said the measures taken by some countries "cannot last forever"; even if the US significantly increases oil production, it will be far from enough to offset the supply gap caused by the blockage in the Strait of Hormuz. (CCTV News) Oilfield services company Baker Hughes said US energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for the fifth consecutive week, the first such streak since early June, bringing the total count to its highest since April 2025. As an early indicator of future output, the total rig count rose by 7 to 588 in the week to July 17. Baker Hughes said this week's increase pushed the total rig count up by 44 rigs, or 8%, compared to the same period last year. Baker Hughes said oil rigs rose by 7 to 452 this week, the highest since May 2025; natural gas rigs were unchanged at 126, and miscellaneous rigs were unchanged at 10. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Notably: NYMEX WTI August crude oil futures will be affected by contract rollover, with the final floor trading completed at 2:30 on July 22 and the final electronic trading completed at 5:00 AM. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiry and rollover announcements to manage risks. In addition, for some trading platforms, the WTI contract expiry is typically one day earlier than the official NYMEX expiry; please be attentive. Recommended Reading:

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release key economic data on July 15, including GDP growth for Q2 and H1, as well as data on industrial output, consumption, and investment. Economists participating in the CBN Chief Economists Survey projected an average 4.5% YoY GDP growth for Q2 2026. They believe that the “K-shaped divergence” in China’s economy has become more pronounced, the economy is in a period of replacing old growth drivers with new ones, and macro policies are expected to step up efforts to stabilize growth in H2. However, the release of new growth drivers is not enough to offset the waning of old drivers, which does not alter the fundamental pattern that China’s economy remains in the painful transition of replacing old growth drivers with new ones. Measures should be taken in advance to build up policy reserves, strengthen situation monitoring and risk early warning, and formulate contingency plans, so as to use policy foresight to hedge against uncertainties in the internal and external environment.

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of July 6–10, 2026. Weak nickel prices and soft off-season demand drag the benchmark contract down RMB 310/mt, breaking below the RMB 14,500/mt support level in the week of July 6–10.

SMM, July 10: Metals market side, overnight, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 1.58%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.48%, SHFE lead fell 0.19%, SHFE zinc rose 1.26%, SHFE tin rose 2.26%, and SHFE nickel rose 1.08%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.29%, and the most-traded casting aluminum contract rose 0.63%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Stainless steel fell 0.59%, iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar fell 0.13%, and hot-rolled coil was flat at 3,297 yuan/mt. Coking coal and coke side, the most-traded coking coal contract fell 2.79%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 2.15%. Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals all rose. LME copper rose 1.71%, LME aluminum rose 2.29%, LME lead rose 0.19%, LME zinc rose 2.49%, LME tin rose 2.18%, and LME nickel rose 1.13%. Overnight, precious metals side : COMEX gold rose 1.23%, and COMEX silver rose 3.1%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 1.31%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 3.22%. According to Polish central bank Governor Grabinski, the bank purchased billions of dollars worth of gold during the recent dip in gold prices. At a press conference in Warsaw on Thursday, Grabinski said the bank has purchased 82 mt of gold so far this year. This means that since the last official data release in April, the bank added another 37 mt of gold, worth approximately $5 billion at current prices. “Taking advantage of the recent price decline, we have been continuously purchasing gold,” Grabinski said. Poland reported more gold purchases than any other central bank in 2025 and is expected to continue this record this year. Gold prices have fallen over 10% since April. Grabinski reiterated the Polish central bank’s target of 700 mt of gold reserves. He said the bank currently holds 632.4 mt of gold, of which 105 mt is stored in Poland and the rest is held in London and New York. (Jinshi Data APP) Bernstein raised its 2026 gold price forecast, expecting a H2 gold price target of $4,375 per ounce and a full-year target price of $4,533. The firm believes that continued central bank purchases and the high probability that the US Fed will not cut interest rates over the next 12 months will be key factors supporting gold prices. Bernstein expects the Fed to raise rates at most 1 to 2 times, and gold ETF outflow pressure will also be limited. Bernstein noted that in Q2 2026, rising real interest rates caused gold prices to pull back from $4,650/oz to around $4,000, but as rate expectations stabilize, gold still has upside room. The firm also warned that if inflation persistently exceeds expectations, prompting the Fed to hike rates more aggressively, that would become a major risk to gold’s upward movement. (Jinshi Data APP) As of 7:12 AM on July 10, overnight closing market data: Macro front China side: [State Council Issues “15th Five-Year Plan” Carbon Peak Action Plan: Carbon Emissions to Decrease 17% in 2030 Compared with 2025] On July 9, the “15th Five-Year Plan Carbon Peak Action Plan” was released, charting a “roadmap” for China to meet its carbon peak target before 2030. Over the next five years, China’s energy structure will undergo further adjustment and optimization. By 2030, China’s carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by 17% from 2025 levels, and non-fossil energy consumption will account for 25% of the total. In terms of specific measures, the Action Plan clearly mandates accelerating energy structure adjustment and optimization and vigorously promoting non-fossil energy development. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, new electricity consumption will be increasingly covered by new clean energy generation. The Action Plan intensifies efforts to promote green and low-carbon industrial development, with a series of new measures being introduced. On one hand, it aims to deepen the low-carbon transition of traditional industries, advancing energy-saving and carbon-reduction projects in steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, petrochemical engineering and other key industries. On the other hand, it focuses on vigorously developing emerging green and low-carbon industries such as green energy, green manufacturing, and green services. For existing capacity, it emphasizes “improving quality through green transition,” guiding enterprises from a zero-sum cost-driven competition mindset toward an innovative approach of low-carbon and zero-carbon development. For new capacity, it stresses “cultivating the new with green transition,” nurturing and expanding strategic emerging and future industries characterized by green, low-carbon features. In the transportation sector, the Action Plan proposes that by 2030, the ownership share of NEVs should reach 30%, and the ownership share of new energy operating vehicles should reach 25%. By the end of 2025, national NEV ownership accounted for about 12%, meaning this share will more than double within five years. For ordinary citizens, private NEV ownership will further increase during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. US dollar side: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.14% to 100.93. The latest data shows that for the week ending July 4 (which includes the US Independence Day holiday), US initial jobless claims decreased by 2,000 to 215,000, below market expectations of 217,000, remaining near historic lows. However, continuing claims, which reflect the re-employment situation for the unemployed, rose to 1.81 million, the highest level since March. Initial jobless claims persistently running low, together with recent non-farm payrolls data, paint a picture of a US labor market characterized by “reduced layoffs, slowing hiring.” (Wall Street News) Fed Chairman Warsh Kevin has established five working groups to conduct a comprehensive review of the Fed’s monetary policy operating framework, covering areas such as balance sheet management, policy tools, and the impact of artificial intelligence. The Fed stated that the working groups will operate independently, conduct fact-based studies, and submit rigorous analyses to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The review will assess whether there is room for improvement in policy tools, analytical methods, and the policy framework. The review teams include several prominent economists and former central bank officials. Among them, Harvard economist Chetty Raj will co-lead the data working group, tech investor Andreessen Marc will head the productivity and employment working group, and former White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Mankiw Gregory will co-lead the inflation working group. Warsh said that the US economy has undergone dramatic changes over the past generation, and the current transformation is occurring at a faster pace, so the Fed needs to ensure it is in optimal condition to achieve its dual mandate of price stability and maximizing employment. (Jinshi Data APP) Additionally, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s “Monthly Budget Review: June 2026,” the US federal budget deficit totaled approximately $1.4 trillion in the first nine months of fiscal year 2026, an increase of $35 billion compared to the same period last fiscal year. Federal revenues over the period were $4.2 trillion, up $142 billion or 4%, while outlays were $5.5 trillion, up $178 billion or 3%. (CCTV) New York Fed Open Market Account Manager Perli stated that reserve management purchase operations have no preset course, and the New York Fed’s open market trading desk can adjust purchase amounts higher or lower depending on money market conditions. Additionally, Perli said that amid Fed Chairman Warsh appointing a working group on the Fed’s balance sheet, the trading desk is ready to implement any changes and interest rate control frameworks the committee may decide to adopt. The Fed began conducting reserve management purchase operations last December, driven by expectations that reserves would decline rapidly in April as tax payments flowed into the Treasury General Account. When the Treasury’s account balance at the Fed increases, reserves in the banking system decline. (Jinshi Data APP) Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that if the FOMC conducts open market operations through a voluntarily participated central clearing mechanism, it would help improve operational efficiency and effectiveness, and enhance US financial market stability. Logan noted that such an arrangement could improve the use of Fed tools, such as the Standing Repo Facility, which aims to provide liquidity to eligible institutions but has seen relatively low market usage so far. Some believe that simplifying clearing processes could increase its attractiveness. She also stated that market leverage levels need to be carefully managed, and financial markets must maintain an appropriate balance between the benefits and risks of leverage, and between leverage and liquidity. (Jinshi Data APP) According to CME “FedWatch”: The probability of the Fed holding rates steady in July is 74.9%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 25.1%. Probability for the September meeting: holding rates steady at 35.7%, a cumulative 25-basis-point hike at 51.1%, and a cumulative 50-basis-point hike at 13.1%. (Jinshi Data APP) Other currencies side: Minutes from the ECB’s June meeting showed the bank could no longer ignore the energy shock, projecting that rising energy prices would push medium-term inflation above its 2% target. The ECB Governing Council unanimously decided to raise key interest rates to 2.25% last month, becoming the first major central bank to hike rates due to elevated energy prices caused by the Iran war. The minutes stated: “The current situation clearly falls no longer into the category of shocks that can be looked through.” “The longer energy prices stay high, the more likely it is that they will push up broader inflation through indirect and second-round effects. This increases the risk that the energy shock becomes entrenched in underlying inflation and medium- to long-term inflation expectations.” (Jinshi Data APP) Macro side: Data scheduled for release today include Germany’s June CPI final monthly rate, France’s June CPI final monthly rate, Switzerland’s June consumer confidence index, Canada’s June employment change, China’s June M2 money supply annual rate, China’s June year-to-date new yuan loans, and China’s June year-to-date aggregate social financing growth. Also in focus: 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan’s speech; SK Hynix’s American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) are tentatively scheduled to list on Nasdaq this July 10. Crude oil side: Overnight, both oil futures fell, with WTI oil down 2.33% and Brent oil down 2.72%. Although US-Iran military conflict escalated overnight, the market’s actual reaction was notably subdued, with crude oil closing lower. Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad noted that the market views this attack as another “controlled escalation,” based on the premise that the economy can withstand the shock. Goldman Sachs’ Privorotsky shared a similar view, indicating that the market signal suggests no real interest from any party in expanding the conflict, preferring instead to maintain bargaining leverage. However, Privorotsky also warned that while crude oil prices have pulled back, the refined product prices that actually feed into inflation have yet to follow. (Wall Street News) The US Central Command stated that Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz. Since early May, US forces have been assisting in safeguarding navigational safety in this vital international trade route, with over 800 merchant ships and 380 million barrels of crude oil successfully passing through the strait. (Jinshi Data APP) Additionally, sources said that the Saratov refinery in Russia has been shut down since Wednesday following a drone attack. (Jinshi Data APP)

SMM July 9: Metal markets: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.84%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.22%, SHFE lead fell 0.09%, SHFE zinc fell 0.65%, SHFE tin fell 1.43%. SHFE nickel rose 0.51%. In addition, alumina most-traded futures rose 0.22%, while the main aluminum alloy contract fell 0.63%. Overnight, ferrous metals were mostly higher. Stainless steel fell 1.03%, iron ore rose 0.54%, rebar rose 0.16%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.09%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.23%, the most-traded coke contract rose 0.26%. Overnight on the overseas market, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.6%, LME aluminum fell 0.02%, LME lead rose 0.19%. LME zinc fell 1.2%. LME tin fell 1.54%. LME nickel rose 0.89%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.7%, COMEX silver fell 4.3%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.47%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 3.88%. As of 7:12 a.m. July 9, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Xi Jinping attends National Science and Technology Awards Conference, Assembly of Academicians of the Two Academies, and 11th National Congress of China Association for Science and Technology, delivering important speech] Xi Jinping attended the National Science and Technology Awards Conference, the Assembly of Academicians of the Two Academies, and the 11th National Congress of the China Association for Science and Technology, and delivered an important speech. Xi stressed the need to deeply integrate technological innovation and industrial innovation, remove hurdles to accelerate the transformation of science and technology into real productivity. Scientific and technological innovation should be application-oriented, while industrial innovation should raise scientific questions. Strengthen the construction of a national technology transfer system, create diversified application scenarios and high-level industrial clusters, and promote the application and iterative upgrading of self-developed technologies and products. Improve the intellectual property protection system. Establish a sci-tech financial system compatible with sci-tech innovation. (CCTV News) [PBOC Q2 Monetary Policy Committee meeting: Strengthen financial support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand, sci-tech innovation, and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises] The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held its Q2 2026 regular meeting. The meeting analyzed domestic and international economic and financial situations, noting that the current external environment is more complex and volatile, global economic growth momentum is weak, geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions are frequent, major economies' performances are diverging, and inflation trends and monetary policy adjustments remain uncertain. China's economy has been generally stable, improving in quality, and making new progress in high-quality development, but still faces problems and challenges such as stronger supply than demand, structural divergence, and external shocks. The meeting called for continuing to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, strengthening counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, better leveraging the total and structural functions of monetary policy tools, enhancing coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, and promoting stable economic growth and a reasonable recovery in prices. The meeting pointed out the need to guide large banks to play the main role of financial services for the real economy, push small and medium-sized banks to focus on their main responsibilities and businesses, and enhance banks' capital strength. Make good use of various structural monetary policy tools, optimize tool management, effectively write the "five major articles" of finance, and strengthen financial support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand, sci-tech innovation, and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises. Continue to provide sound financial services to support the development and growth of the private economy. Maintain stable operation of financial markets. Effectively promote high-level two-way opening-up of the financial sector, and improve economic and financial management capabilities and risk prevention capabilities under open conditions. [CPCA: June passenger vehicle exports reached 877,000 units, up 82.3% YoY] According to CPCA data, June passenger vehicle exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) reached 877,000 units, up 82.3% YoY, and up 11.5% MoM, accounting for 37% of total passenger vehicle manufacturer sales (36% last month, 19% in the same period of 2025). New energy vehicles accounted for 56.9% of total exports, up 16 percentage points YoY. In June, exports of Chinese domestic brands reached 763,000 units, up 86% YoY; exports of joint venture and luxury brands reached 114,000 units, up 61% YoY. (From Wall Street See APP) US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.02% to 101.07. The Fed's June meeting minutes showed officials' growing concerns about high inflation. Although officials worried that rising prices were spreading and might require interest rate hikes, they followed the footsteps of Fed Chairman Warsh in issuing a more streamlined policy statement. At the June 16-17 meeting, a few participants saw a case for an immediate rate hike. But the broader discussion appeared evenly split: "most participants" saw scenarios where inflation could ease back to the Fed's 2% target on its own, while also seeing scenarios where inflation would persist. "Almost all" of those espousing the latter view thought rate hikes would be necessary in that case. The minutes said: "Participants generally agreed that information received over the intermeeting period suggested that upside risks to price stability remained high, while downside risks to achieving maximum employment had eased." In the end, "all participants" supported keeping rates unchanged. Policymakers also considered Fed Chairman Warsh's proposal to end "forward guidance" and reduce comments on future rate decisions in the statement. "Most participants noted they saw advantages to shortening the statement," the minutes said, while "most participants" supported removing language implying the Fed's next policy move was likely to be a rate cut. The alternative approved by the Fed in June stripped out any interest rate guidance altogether, consistent with Warsh's general desire to avoid committing to rate moves. At the June meeting, the Fed kept its benchmark rate unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, but the latest projections showed a general belief that rate hikes could come this year, with 9 of 18 officials expecting a modest rise in rates by end-2026. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 69.0%, and a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 31.0%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through September is 31.1%, a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 51.9%, and a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 17.0%. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro front: Data to be released today include China's June CPI YoY, China's June PPI YoY, Germany's May seasonally adjusted trade balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4, and US existing home sales annualized for June. Also watch for: Fed release of monetary policy meeting minutes; ECB release of June monetary policy meeting minutes; and remarks from FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams. Crude oil: Overnight, both crude oil futures continued their gains from the previous session and surged further, with WTI crude up 6.13% and Brent crude up 7.17%. US President Trump said the temporary ceasefire with Iran had ended, geopolitical risk premium returned to oil prices, market fears of crude supply disruption quickly intensified, and international oil prices jumped. (Wall Street See) According to Xinhua, US President Trump said on July 8 during the NATO summit in Turkey that US forces "are likely to hit Iran hard again tonight." Xinhua also reported that on July 8, Trump said at the NATO summit he believed the US-Iran memorandum of understanding "has ended." Wall Street See noted that shortly afterward, Trump said the escalation would calm down quickly, seemingly adding fuel to the geopolitical fire before trying to put it out. Earlier, the US had announced the revocation of waivers for Iranian oil sales and launched a new round of military strikes against Iran. However, an unexpected rise in US crude oil inventories somewhat eased geopolitical risk premiums. Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said: "Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has essentially come to a halt, which speaks louder than any statement from Washington or Tehran about the current risk perception." (Wall Street See) US President Trump said we'll see if we can keep oil prices low, we should keep oil prices low. We're now facing an oil oversupply. This situation will soon end, and oil prices will fall. We will make the oil situation safer. (Jin10 Data APP) US Energy Information Administration (EIA): Last week, US EIA crude oil inventories rose by 3 million barrels, compared to Bloomberg user estimate of a 1 million barrel decline and analyst expectations of a 1.8678 million barrel decline, after a 3.775 million barrel decline the prior week. US commercial crude oil inventories increased for the first time since April, ending a streak of consecutive monthly declines, though they remain at their lowest level in about four years. (Wall Street See) In addition, the Russian government announced that the ban on diesel exports will remain in effect until July 31.

On July 6, 2026, the European Commission published the CBAM certificate price for Q2 2026 at 75.28 EUR/tCO₂ (approximately 86.11 USD/tCO₂ or 584.99 CNY/tCO₂ based on recent exchange rates). The Q2 price was marginally lower than the Q1 2026 level of 75.36 EUR/tCO₂, edging down by 0.08 EUR/tCO₂., remaining broadly stable quarter-on-quarter.

SMM Jul. 6 News: Metals Market Update: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market all rose. SHFE copper edged up 0.26%, SHFE aluminum gained 0.84%. SHFE lead ticked higher. SHFE zinc added 0.97%. SHFE tin surged 2.9%. SHFE nickel inched up 0.12%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract rose 0.48%, while the most-traded alumina contract dipped 0.15%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 2.19%. The most-traded silicon metal contract climbed 0.48%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract gained 0.45%. Ferrous metals all advanced. Iron ore, HRC, and rebar each rose within 0.5%. Stainless steel added 0.89%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract increased 0.82%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.06%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:45, LME metals all advanced. LME copper gained 0.74%, LME aluminum rose 0.71%, LME lead climbed 1.07%. LME zinc ticked up 0.1%, LME tin surged 3.94%. LME nickel added 0.61%. Precious metals: as of 11:45, COMEX gold advanced 1.27%, and COMEX silver jumped 2.24%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.62%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 0.5%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.2%, while the most-traded palladium futures contract dropped 1.17%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container freight index (Europe) futures contract slid 2.56% to 2,592.5 points. As of 11:45 on Jul. 6, select futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Nickel: On Jul. 6, SMM #1 refined nickel price declined 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. For spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel stood at 2,300 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the prior day DoD... Macro Front China: [PBOC Reverse Repo Operation Results in Net Injection of 49.5 Billion Yuan] The PBOC conducted 7 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 1,000 billion yuan in outright reverse repos today. With 157.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 800 billion yuan in outright reverse repos maturing, the day saw a net injection of 49.5 billion yuan. (Jinshi Data APP) [Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport’s Foreign Visitor Arrivals, Share Hit Record Highs] As of 0:00 on Jul. 6, Baiyun Port station of the Guangzhou General Station of Immigration Inspection reported over 4 million foreign entries and exits at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport this year, up 34% YoY and accounting for over 41% of the airport’s total passenger flow. The growth rate topped the national average by 8 percentage points, with both volume and share reaching record highs. Overall, the port has handled over 10 million inbound and outbound passenger trips, up 19.6% YoY, crossing the 10 million mark 34 days earlier than in 2025. Inbound and outbound flights exceeded 63,000, up 14% YoY. (CCTV News) US dollar: As of 11:45, the US dollar index was up 0.09% at 100.95. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability that the US Fed holds rates steady in July is 77%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 23%. For September, the probability of no change is 41.9%, a cumulative 25bp hike 47.6%, and a cumulative 50bp hike 10.5%. Goncalves George, head of US macro strategy at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Americas, said Warsh’s concise style gives the June meeting minutes greater weight than usual and offers a valuable lens into the differing stances among Fed officials. “The minutes will become more important because, so far, we don’t know what the Fed is thinking,” Goncalves George said. “It will be instructive to see how they debate and what they focus on.” He added that some investors have already questioned Warsh’s hands-off approach, and many would like to see greater transparency restored. Many market participants are not accustomed to the reduced flow of information, and there remains a considerable degree of skepticism over how long the Fed can maintain this. For now, we have to read between the lines. In a research note, Wan Michael, senior FX analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Bank, said markets appear to be in a wait-and-see mode, looking for the next catalyst for the US dollar and US interest rates. Looking ahead, “global markets will seek direction from key data points such as the US ISM services data and Fed minutes later this week, and US CPI next week,” he said. In addition, the market is also closely watching whether Japanese authorities intervened in the currency market last week to curb yen weakness, so this uncertainty risk should not be underestimated as USD/JPY continues to hover near the 162 level. (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: As imports surge while export growth stalls, the boost from the mining boom to Australia’s trade appears to be fading, and the country may face its first annual trade deficit since 2016. This year, the goods trade surplus has narrowed sharply as the data center construction boom drives a surge in imports of fuel and equipment, while exports have stagnated. This trend appears set to continue, with the Australian government forecasting that export revenue from key commodities will grow only 3% in the current fiscal year compared with the previous one. The mining investment boom drove a surge in exports of iron ore, natural gas, and other commodities, fueling years of economic expansion and wealth accumulation. A return to deficits, however, could weigh on the Australian dollar and constrain the government’s fiscal space. Economist James McIntyre said, “Commodity price declines are expected to weigh on export revenues. As a result, the trade surpluses and occasional current account surpluses recorded over the past decade may give way to a pattern of deficits.” (Jin10 Data App) Data: Today, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for France and Switzerland in June, the eurozone July Sentix Investor Confidence Index, the eurozone May PPI monthly rate, the eurozone May retail sales monthly rate, the US June S&P Global Services PMI final, the US June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, and the US June Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, among other data, will be released. Additionally, speeches are expected from Fed Governor Waller, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch, and Riksbank Deputy Governor Seim. Crude Oil: As of 11:45, oil prices on both exchanges fell, with WTI down 0.38% and Brent down 0.57%. Oil prices were weighed down by OPEC+’s latest decision to raise output. After an online meeting on Sunday, the group said it would increase output by about 188,000 barrels per day in August, marking the fifth consecutive monthly increase. However, analysts at ANZ Research said in a note, “Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, members may struggle to utilize this additional capacity due to ongoing risks to vessels.” The analysts noted, “During the weekend, multiple vessels were observed making abrupt course reversals while attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz along the Oman route.” (Jin10 Data App) A statement showed that OPEC+ will raise oil production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day in August. The seven core members of OPEC+, which comprises OPEC and allies including Russia, have collectively raised production quotas by nearly 800,000 barrels per day from April to July. However, because the US-Israeli war on Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz to oil tanker shipments for some of the most important OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq, previous increases have largely remained on paper. (Jin10 Data App) According to agency reports, the number of vessels transiting the channel along the Omani coast of the Strait of Hormuz dropped sharply on Sunday. A day earlier, multiple vessels sailing out of the strait along that channel abruptly executed sharp course reversals, underscoring Iran’s ongoing tightening of control over this strategic waterway. A product tanker that turned back on Saturday appears to be attempting passage again, having now passed the northernmost tip of Oman's Musandam Peninsula. Earlier, another product tanker transited the same route and openly broadcast its voyage intent, and is now broadcasting its position in the Gulf of Oman. Some vessels have opted for "dark transit" through the strait. A Suezmax crude tanker, which last broadcast its position in the Persian Gulf on Saturday, appeared in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday. Between Friday and Saturday, at least eight vessels suddenly turned around while transiting the Strait of Hormuz along the Omani lanes. Four of them then altered course northward, exiting the strait via the Iranian side. There is no official explanation for the sudden turnaround of these vessels. However, Iran has repeatedly stated that ships can only transit the Strait of Hormuz through Iranian-designated and -authorized lanes. According to Kpler data, on Saturday a total of 19 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in both directions, but only one openly indicated it would enter the strait along the Omani coastal lanes, compared to 13 on Friday. The above statistics cover only observable vessel movements. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM July 4 news: Metal market: Last Friday night, domestic base metals nearly all rose. SHFE copper gained 0.14%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.6%, SHFE lead added 0.38%, SHFE zinc increased 0.87%, and SHFE tin jumped 3.8%. SHFE nickel edged down 0.02%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.07%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract rose 0.24%. Last Friday night, ferrous metals mostly closed higher. Stainless steel dropped 1.85%, iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar gained 0.39%, and hot-rolled coil added 0.4%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.21%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.6%. Last Friday night, in the overseas market, LME base metals rose across the board. LME copper gained 0.54%, LME aluminum added 0.23%, LME lead rose 1.04%, LME zinc climbed 2.17%, LME tin surged 4.99%, and LME nickel rose 0.4%. Last Friday night, precious metals : COMEX gold rose 1.49%, posting a weekly gain of 2.22%; COMEX silver gained 2.87%, closing the week higher with a 5.26% increase. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.81%, ending the week up 3.5%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 1.61%, posting a weekly rise of 8.82%. JPMorgan said that in the short term, gold prices may be capped by weakening demand and are likely to remain moving sideways overall. The main reasons are weaker purchasing power in key demand areas and renewed sensitivity of gold to changes in real interest rates, which may limit further price gains. However, the bank maintains a medium- to long-term bullish outlook. It expects gold to gradually rebound in H2 2026, with an average price of around $4,300 per ounce in Q3, rising to about $4,500 in Q4. Looking ahead to 2027, JPMorgan believes the rally may continue, driven mainly by continued central bank buying, stronger physical demand, and persistent long-term structural allocation needs. These factors will support gold's long-term appeal as a safe-haven and reserve asset. As of 7:41 a.m. on July 4, last Friday night's closing quotations: Macro front China: [Li Qiang: Take more forceful measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating high-level self-reliance in science and technology, building a strong domestic market, and deepening reforms and expanding opening up] On July 1, Premier Li Qiang, also secretary of the CPC Leadership Group of the State Council, presided over a meeting of the group to study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speech at the celebration of the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China and Xi Jinping Thought on Party Building. The meeting emphasized the need to strive for new achievements in high-quality development, strengthen initiative and a sense of urgency in work, and take more robust measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating self-reliance in high-level science and technology, developing a strong domestic market, and deepening reform and expanding opening up. It called for taking solid action, shouldering responsibilities, and striving to carry forward the baton of history, so as to make greater contributions to building a strong country and achieving national rejuvenation. (Xinhua News Agency) [The State Council: Increasing Efforts in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Transformation in Key Industries such as Steel and Non-Ferrous Metals to Achieve Energy Savings of More Than 150 Million mt of Standard Coal] Recently, the State Council issued the “15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Beautiful China,” clarifying the overall requirements, targets and indicators, key tasks, and major projects for comprehensively advancing the building of a Beautiful China during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The Plan proposes that by 2030, the quality of the ecological environment will be comprehensively improved, and new significant progress will be made in building a Beautiful China. Green production and lifestyles will be essentially in place, the carbon peak target will be met as scheduled, total emissions of major pollutants will continue to decline, comprehensive solid waste management capacity and level will be significantly enhanced, urban and rural living environments will be notably improved, the diversity, stability, and sustainability of ecosystems will be continuously strengthened, nuclear and radiation safety levels will keep rising, national ecological security will be effectively guaranteed, an ecological and environmental governance system adapted to the requirements of building a Beautiful China will be steadily refined, a number of demonstration models for building a Beautiful China will be established, and the people’s sense of gain, happiness, and security from the ecological environment will be continuously enhanced. It also makes an outlook on the 2035 targets and proposes accelerating the formation of the overall layout for building a Beautiful China. (Xinhua News Agency) The Plan mentions increasing efforts in energy conservation and carbon reduction transformation in key industries such as thermal power, steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, and building materials, promoting and popularizing energy-saving and low-carbon technologies, and achieving energy savings of more than 150 million mt of standard coal. With the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas as the focus, industrial coal-fired boilers with a capacity of 65 steam tonnes per hour or below will be gradually phased out. The substitution of clean energy for coal-fired boilers and industrial kilns in industries such as food, textiles, and papermaking will be advanced. [Ministry of Finance and Two Other Departments: Adjusting Vehicle and Vessel Tax Preferential Policies for Energy-Saving Vehicles and NEVs] On July 2, the Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on adjusting vehicle and vessel tax preferential policies for energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles. It states that from January 1, 2027, the policy of halving vehicle and vessel tax for energy-saving vehicles will be abolished, and the exemption from vehicle and vessel tax for pure electric commercial vehicles, plug-in hybrid (including extended-range) vehicles, and fuel cell commercial vehicles will be abolished. Vehicles of the above types newly acquired by taxpayers or acquired before the implementation of this announcement shall be subject to vehicle and vessel tax in accordance with the Vehicle and Vessel Tax Law of the People’s Republic of China, its implementation regulations, and other relevant provisions. [PBOC: To conduct 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation on July 6, with 3-month tenor] To keep banking system liquidity ample, on July 6, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation via a fixed-quantity, interest rate tender with multiple-price winning bids, with a tenor of 3 months (91 days), maturing on October 5, 2026 (adjusted for holidays if it falls on a holiday). (Jinshi Data APP) On the dollar front: Overnight last Friday, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 100.91. On the weekly chart: The dollar index fell on a weekly basis, down 0.44% for the week, its biggest weekly decline since mid-April. The decline occurred as US June employment data cooled noticeably, leading the market to lower expectations for near-term Fed rate hikes, and the dollar index fell this week. Against a weaker dollar backdrop, the euro rose to $1.1440, up about 0.5% for the week; sterling rose to $1.3352, up about 1.1% for the week, its best performance in nearly three months. The yen rebounded from near a 40-year low, with USD/JPY once pulling back to around 161, though still at elevated levels. Japan continued to release signals of forex intervention, with finance and cabinet officials stating they are closely monitoring markets and remain prepared to intervene. Analysts pointed out that the dollar's movement has clearly been influenced by employment data and interest rate expectations, and if subsequent economic data continue to weaken, the dollar could still face further pressure. However, whether the yen can sustain its rebound still depends on the US-Japan interest rate differential and Japan's policy actions. (Jinshi Data APP) "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos said: Trump stated that he considers Fed Chairman Warsh to be on the dovish side within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). A day earlier, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett made similar remarks; a week earlier, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he hoped the Fed would remain "open-minded" on inflation and expects the Fed to ease policy this year. A new era of "forward guidance"... (Jinshi Data APP) BNP Paribas Chief Economist Isabel Mateos y Lago said: "If July's nonfarm payrolls are very strong, close to or exceeding 130,000, then I think the July meeting will be full of suspense. The uncertainty may not be as high now, but in my view, the case for a Fed rate hike remains valid." Ahead of the July 4 holiday, short-term interest rate futures markets expected a roughly 20% probability of a Fed rate hike at the July 29 rate decision, down from 33% before the release of the payrolls report. Markets still expect the US Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points this year, but not until December at the earliest. For the ECB, Lagarde said, "The baseline expectation remains another rate hike in September. But it is worth noting that Governing Council members speaking at the Sintra meeting did not rule out skipping this additional hike." She warned that the normalization of energy supply could take six months or longer to take effect, and eurozone inflation could accelerate again. Even so, she also believes that consumer prices outside energy-affected areas will not face pressure. Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran said, "The US non-farm payrolls data was actually weak, but I still think inflation will peak above 3.7%, and AI, fiscal stimulus and the energy sector are still supporting economic growth. The US Fed may have to raise rates in September. I think this is where the real divergence between Europe and the US lies." Subran believes that after last month's hike, the ECB will not act again. "That was an insurance hike, but judging from the current data, it seems that moment has passed," he said. "The trauma effect of the war (with Iran) takes time to manifest. The economy is still bearing the costs of war, but the situation is much better than a few weeks ago."(Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: ECB Governing Council member Mullan said that as falling oil prices ease price pressures in the eurozone, the ECB is in a favorable position after last month's rate hike. Mullan said that while it is too early to predict the next two meetings in July and September, officials have made clear that "we will not enter a new rate-hiking cycle." Mullan said, "For now, we are in a favorable position. The balance of risks is also at a reasonable level." Mullan added, "Falling oil prices will ease inflation pressure in the services sector," and "we have not yet seen second-round effects."(Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of Switzerland June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Eurozone July Sentix Investor Confidence Index, Eurozone May PPI m/m, Eurozone May retail sales m/m, US June S&P Global Services PMI Final, US June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, US June Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, Germany May seasonally adjusted industrial output m/m, UK June Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index m/m, France May trade balance, US ADP employment change for the week ended June 20, US May trade balance, China June foreign exchange reserves, Japan May trade balance, New Zealand interest rate decision for July 8, US May wholesale sales m/m, China June CPI y/y, China June PPI y/y, Germany May seasonally adjusted trade balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4, US June existing home sales annualized, Germany June CPI m/m final, France June CPI m/m final, Switzerland June consumer confidence index, Canada June employment change, China June M2 money supply y/y, and other data. Additionally, events to watch this week include: a 900 billion yuan outright reverse repo maturing today; speeches from Fed Governor Waller, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch, and Deputy Governor of Sveriges Riksbank Seim; Turkey hosts the NATO summit through July 8; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its interest rate decision; RBNZ Governor Bremman holds a monetary policy press conference; the Fed releases minutes of its monetary policy meeting; the ECB releases minutes of its June monetary policy meeting; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech; and 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan delivers a speech. Crude Oil: In overnight trading last Friday, both oil futures edged up slightly, with WTI up 0.13% and Brent up 0.19%. On the weekly chart: WTI futures fell for a fourth consecutive week, down 0.65% for the week; Brent futures also declined for a fourth straight week, down 0.91% for the week. The crude oil market is relatively stable, with Brent stabilizing near $72 per barrel as the market weighs the supply outlook around the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of US-Iran negotiations. (Wall Street News) Data from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) show: In the week ending June 30, Brent crude futures speculators cut their net long positions by 34,704 contracts to 55,634 contracts. Gasoil futures speculators cut their net long positions by 2,664 contracts to 57,852 contracts. (Jin10 Data APP) Data show that oil exports from the Gulf region in June increased by more than 3 million barrels per day (bpd) from May, exceeding 10 million bpd, but still 40% below pre-war levels. The UAE led the recovery in oil markets, enabling millions of barrels of crude stranded in the Gulf region to enter international markets, allowing producers to raise output and push oil prices down to pre-war levels. Kpler data show that combined crude and condensate exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran rose by more than 3.5 million bpd from May to 10.07 million bpd. Vortexa, another cargo analytics firm, estimated June shipments at 10.2 million bpd, up from 7 million bpd in May, but still well below the 16.5 million bpd recorded a year earlier. According to data from Kpler, Vortexa and LSEG, the UAE’s crude exports reached a record 3.7 million to 3.8 million bpd in June, more than 1 million bpd above May’s level. (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, three sources said that Venezuela’s largest refinery, the 645,000-bpd Amuay refinery, has resumed operations after a power outage on Friday and is currently processing about 140,000 bpd of crude, with the fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit also back online. Following two earthquakes last week that caused heavy casualties, multiple refineries in Venezuela were affected by power outages. Sources also said that the El Palito refinery, with a daily processing capacity of 146,000 barrels, has had power restored, but staff have not yet been able to restart the production units. (Jinshi Data APP) A Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s crude oil production rebounded sharply in June, up about 3.3 million barrels per day MoM to 19.43 million barrels per day, a clear rebound from May’s more-than-two-decade low, but still well below quota levels. The recovery in output mainly came from Gulf countries restoring supply, with Kuwait posting the largest increase; Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq also raised output in tandem. Nigeria and Libya likewise made small increases. The UAE exited OPEC on May 1 and is no longer included in the statistics. The report noted that the earlier Iran war and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted supply; the US subsequently lifted restrictions on vessels at Iranian ports, helping some output recover. Although OPEC+ had planned to increase production in June, the plan was not fully implemented due to the war. Overall, global crude oil supply was being repaired, but had not yet returned to normal levels. (Jinshi Data APP) Recommended Reading: