Deutsche Bank says gold's current rally, running since August 2024, is one of only five such episodes since 1975. Analysts at the bank see the recent pullback as largely complete and reiterates its $4,600/oz Q4 2026 forecast.

As of August 4, the operating rate of 50 EAF steel mills in China primarily producing construction steel stood at 33.58%, down 1.96% WoW; capacity utilization rate was 33.67%, down 1.64% WoW; and daily average production of construction steel was 75,000 mt, down 3,600 mt WoW.

[SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Minutes] Silicon metal: Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was around 9,000-9,100 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was near 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt. The most-traded futures contract was disturbed by supply-side production cut news and PV anti-involution bullish sentiment, causing the most-traded silicon metal futures contract to trend stronger. Silicon enterprises' quotes were generally stable, with a strong willingness to sell. Watch for the impact of variables on short-term price spikes, with resistance above focused on silicon enterprises' willingness to sell. Polysilicon: N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 31.6-33.5 yuan/kg. Currently, most manufacturers continue to hold back from selling, market transactions are very few, but expectations for price hikes are relatively common. Some forward traders received higher quotes, with some prices even exceeding 40 yuan. However, this is limited to forward traders. Spot trading is currently basically at a standstill, awaiting the outcome of today's meeting.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,012/mt, dipped to $13,871.5/mt before rebounding, hit a high of $14,117/mt, and finally closed at $14,043.5/mt, up 1.41%; trading volume was 30,300 lots, with open interest rising to 251,000 lots, an increase of 2,793 lots from the previous trading day, indicating increased long positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 107,490 yuan/mt, reached a high of 107,500 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 106,900 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 107,040 yuan/mt, up 0.37%; trading volume was 46,500 lots, with open interest rising to 211,100 lots, an increase of 1,601 lots from the previous trading day, indicating increased long positions.

In H1 2026, global lithium battery ESS shipments reached 461.3 GWh, up 71% from 269.7 GWh in the same period last year. The overall market presented a competitive landscape of "the first tier remains dominant, the second and third tiers are locked in a melee, while other enterprises struggle to survive in the cracks.

[SMM Titanium Spot Flash: Titanium Concentrates Oversupply Pattern Unchanged, Weak Market Continues] SMM August 4: The mainstream 46% titanium concentrate was quoted at 1,250 yuan/mt today. Low-priced imported ore continued to impact, Panxi associated supply passively increased, while real estate chain demand remained sluggish, and downstream buyers were on the sidelines, delaying purchases. Short-term prices continued to be under pressure.

In July 2026, TiO₂ prices fell by RMB 1,900/mt from early-month levels, with inventories rising 23.26% MoM despite a slight output drop. Sponge titanium prices declined by RMB 3,000/mt, as output grew 5.45% MoM and demand remained weak. Export momentum softened amid summer lulls and stricter controls. Both markets are expected to stay under pressure in the near term, with a bearish near-term outlook.

Futures first rose and then fell today, closing at 2,983, down 0.2% from the previous trading day. On the spot side, most markets held offers steady in the morning; in the afternoon, as futures drifted lower, some markets edged down 10-20 yuan/mt, with overall trading sentiment weak. Fundamentals, supply side, both blast furnace and EAF steel mills mostly saw losses in per-mt steel margins. Recently, EAF mills have reduced working hours or halted production, and blast furnace mills have also cut output or conducted rolling line maintenance. According to SMM’s weekly maintenance survey, the impact from maintenance this period was 938,600 mt, up 174,200 mt WoW, and supply pressure on construction steel eased somewhat. Demand side, futures slightly recovered this morning, lifting market activity modestly and releasing downstream rigid procurement demand, though overall room for demand growth was limited. Overall, the market is in a macro vacuum period, construction steel fundamentals lack momentum, and short-term prices will likely continue to consolidate at lows.

[SMM Daily Review: Spot Lithium Carbonate Prices Unchanged on August 4] Today, SMM battery-grade spot lithium carbonate prices remained flat from the previous working day. The lithium carbonate 2609 contract opened lower at 138,800 yuan/mt today, fluctuated lower and quickly dipped, hitting a low of 137,300 yuan/mt. Subsequently, bulls stepped in, pushing prices to rebound quickly, and in the morning session, prices shot up to around 141,400 yuan/mt. Around midday, bulls and bears wrestled repeatedly in the 139,500–141,400 yuan/mt range, during which prices shot up to 141,400 yuan/mt twice but were met with selling pressure from bears each time. In the afternoon, prices pulled back amid consolidation, and in late trading, moved sideways within the 139,300–139,500 yuan/mt range. It eventually closed up 0.84% at 139,400 yuan/mt, with open interest declining by 8,337 lots. In the spot market, downstream material plants made just-in-time procurement on price dips. Inquiries were relatively active, but actual transactions showed a slowdown. Upstream spot orders continued to hold prices firm, and at the beginning of the month, deliveries were mainly based on long-term contracts. Overall, market transactions were relatively sluggish.

SMM, August 4: The most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened at 15,265 yuan/mt, fluctuated upward after the opening, reached a high of 15,480 yuan/mt in the afternoon, moved sideways in the tail session, and finally closed at 15,445 yuan/mt, up 0.1%, recording a small bullish candlestick. According to LME data, today's lead inventory fell by 3,575 mt to 434,875 mt. During the day, LME lead saw a strong catch-up rally, hitting a high of $1,888/mt. Lead consumption outside China improved, coupled with expectations of production cuts or shutdowns at some domestic lead smelters, bullish sentiment supported lead prices to briefly stop falling. Data source statement: Other data apart from publicly available information are based on publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM, and are for reference only, not constituting any decision-making advice.