As Q3 2026 reaches the halfway mark, how has recent consumption of die-cast zinc alloys performed? What are companies’ expectations for demand going forward?

According to SMM data, the antimony market showed a stable-then-rise trend this week, with the price center continuing to move higher. The average price of #1 antimony ingot stabilized at 92,000 yuan/mt from Monday to Wednesday (Aug 10-12), was raised by 1,500 yuan/mt to 93,500 yuan/mt on Thursday (Aug 13), and remained unchanged on Friday. 99.8% antimony trioxide (domestic) largely moved in tandem, with its average price stabilizing at 82,000 yuan/mt from Monday to Wednesday, edging up by 500 yuan/mt to 82,500 yuan/mt on Thursday (Aug 13), and unchanged on Friday. The increase in antimony trioxide was noticeably smaller than that in antimony ingot, reflecting that downstream demand from flame retardants and other end uses improved but remained mild. In terms of pace, prices in the antimony products market mainly climbed steadily during this week's trading days; smelters generally held prices firm and held back from selling under loss-making pressure, and the market showed clear directional momentum. The mid-week rise was mainly driven by warming expectations of continued buyer stockpiling, but market participants widely reported that downstream rigid-demand restocking slowed noticeably and speculative interest also cooled, with overall market sentiment shifting to mildly bullish. Date #1 Antimony Ingot Lowest Price #1 Antimony Ingot Highest Price #1 Antimony Ingot Average Price Antimony Trioxide Lowest Price Antimony Trioxide Highest Price Antimony Trioxide Average Price Change 2026-08-10 (Mon) 91,000 93,000 92,000 81,000 83,000 82,000 Antimony +2,000 / oxide +1,000 2026-08-11 (Tue) 91,000 93,000 92,000 81,000 83,000 82,000 Unchanged 2026-08-12 (Wed) 91,000 93,000 92,000 81,000 83,000 82,000 Unchanged 2026-08-13 (Thu) 92,000 95,000 93,500 81,500 83,500 82,500 Antimony +1,500 / oxide +500 2026-08-14 (Fri) 92,000 95,000 93,500 81,500 83,500 82,500 Unchanged Weekly Average 90,500 92,900 91,700 78,750 81,400 80,075 Weekly +1.6% / +0.6% According to SMM estimates, China's antimony ingot production in July 2026, including antimony ingot, converted crude antimony, and antimony cathode, jumped about 30% MoM, showing a sharp increase. Customs data show that antimony ore imports from outside China in April, May, and June all exceeded 10,000 mt, and large ore imports inevitably translated into higher antimony ingot production. In H1 2026, cumulative antimony ore imports reached 59,347.5 mt in physical content, already exceeding total imports for full-year 2025. June antimony ores and concentrates imports were 10,688.6 mt, down 2.7% MoM from 10,980.1 mt in May, but still above the 10,000 mt mark. However, the previously market-worried "Spain variable" source is not sustainable. Combined with limited domestic mining output growth, the tight raw material pattern remained unchanged. Notably, a planned #1 antimony ingot smelting project with annual capacity of 10,000 mt in Xiaoerkule, Xinjiang may affect the future supply landscape. From a cost perspective, mining costs of some large producers' self-owned antimony ore plus smelting processing fees are now relatively close to spot prices, and smelters' willingness to hold prices firm and hold back from selling is highly consistent, which is also the core reason prices could sustain their uptrend this week. June antimony trioxide export volume was 474.3 mt, up 145.6% MoM from about 193 mt in May, with Russia as the top destination. Export channels showed a diversification trend, but total volumes remained low. Over the same period, unwrought antimony exports were zero, indicating antimony ingot exports were still restricted. The import structure shifted markedly, with Spain's share rising; export channels became more diversified, but total volumes remained low. Looking at Thai trade data, Thailand's antimony ingot imports in June were 1,405 mt, up 173.1% MoM and a half-year peak, sourced mainly from Vietnam, Myanmar, and Hong Kong; exports were 689 mt, up 132.1% MoM, mainly destined for Belgium, South Korea, and Japan. Thailand's industry chain pattern of processing antimony ingots into value-added exports to developed economies is clear, with export unit prices generally above import costs and a notable processing value-added effect. Data Indicator Latest Month Previous Month MoM Change Antimony ores imports (mt) 10,688.6 (Jun) 10,980.1 (May) -2.7% H1 cumulative antimony ore imports (mt in physical content) 59,347.5 - Exceeds full-year 2025 Antimony trioxide exports (mt) 474.3 (Jun) 193.2 (May) +145.6% Unwrought antimony exports 0 (Jun) 0 (May) Remained zero Antimony ingot production Jul +30% MoM Jun +30% Export controls continue. Since July 1, export controls on strategic minerals have been upgraded to "whole-supply-chain networked supervision"; compliant export channels have narrowed, which will further tighten domestic available supply. Although antimony trioxide exports rose sharply MoM, total volumes remained low compared with normal monthly exports of several thousand mt, and the industry chain's export willingness improved but the overall stance remained cautious. On end-use demand, as the traditional off-season draws to a close, operating rates across downstream sectors are expected to rebound steadily; for example, operating rates in the flame retardant and alloy sectors are expected to increase with the arrival of the September-October peak season. After earlier capacity contraction, the PV glass industry also has production resumption expectations, but demand for sodium pyroantimonate still needs to be observed and verified. Bromine prices rose to 36,500 yuan/mt on tightening supply and consolidated at highs, providing cost support for antimony prices. However, after restocking for rigid demand in the previous period, end-users now hold some raw material inventory and are not highly motivated to continue restocking in the near term. From this week's antimony trioxide transactions, downstream acceptance of high-priced antimony trioxide supply remained cautious, and there was some resistance in passing this through to the upstream smelting segment. This was also an important reason why this week's antimony price rise was measured and lacked momentum for a one-sided sharp rally. For example, sodium pyroantimonate production in July fell 20% MoM, and two consecutive months of decline showed that the peak demand season had not arrived. From this week's trend, the pace of price increases reflected the market's core contradiction: a game between smelters' willingness to hold prices firm and downstream acceptance of high prices. Looking ahead to next week, the core logic supporting antimony prices remains solid: smelters generally face loss-making pressure from inverted prices of externally purchased raw materials and finished products, and their willingness to hold prices firm and hold back from selling is highly consistent; meanwhile, the approaching September-October peak season is further strengthening downstream expectations of future restocking. Next week, antimony prices are expected to hold up well. Given that current gains are relatively mild and upward momentum still needs to accumulate, the probability of a sustained one-sided sharp rally is low. Attention should be paid to downstream actual acceptance of cargoes after price increases. In the medium and long term, over the next month, the antimony market is expected to continue its firm pattern as peak-season demand materializes. Late Q3 to early Q4 is the traditional peak consumption season for antimony products; the flame retardant industry entering its production peak will boost consumption of antimony trioxide and antimony ingot, and the PV glass industry has production resumption expectations. On the supply side, China's antimony ore is constrained by resources and can hardly see significant volume growth; export controls continue to deepen, and the price center is expected to rise gradually. Key Points to Watch: - Downstream actual acceptance of antimony ingot prices after increases and the sustainability of transaction volume expansion - Changes in Antimony Oxide Capacity Outside China and China's Export Recovery Progress - Actual Verification of "September-October Peak Season" Demand - Subsequent Changes in Antimony Ore Imports - Progress on the 10,000 mt Antimony Ingot Smelting Project in Xiaoerkule, Xinjiang - Bromine Price Trend and Cost Support - Enforcement of Strategic Mineral Export Control Policies

China Sulphuric Acid Market Continued to Hit Bottom, Weak Demand Dragged Down the Price Center [SMM Sulphuric Acid Weekly Review]

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Weak Supply and Demand Combined with Macro Expectations Game, SHFE Tin Consolidates Above 420,000 yuan/mt]

I. Overall Market Review During the week, China’s platinum group compounds market showed notable structural divergence and a “retreat after rapid rise” pattern. The market was driven mainly by fluctuations in overseas market prices and overseas policy events. Platinum and palladium compounds experienced a period of sharp gains before pulling back under pressure; rhodium-based products rose steadily; iridium and ruthenium-based products remained independent and stable. The core contradiction in the current market is the mismatch between a sharp increase on the cost side and persistently weak demand. Upstream NYMEX platinum and palladium prices jumped sharply, directly pushing up domestic raw material costs for chloroplatinic acid and palladium chloride to fresh highs for the period. However, downstream sectors such as automotive catalysts, pharmaceuticals, and petrochemicals were in the high-temperature maintenance off-season, with insufficient end-user operating rates and sluggish spot trades. Downstream enterprises mostly adopted a strategy of restocking only as needed and lacked sustained buying support, causing platinum and palladium products that had surged earlier to generally pull back under pressure, while industry processing fees moved lower overall. Iridium, ruthenium, and rhodium-based products were less affected by spillover and merely moved sideways with mild gains. II. Price Trends by Product 1. Chloroplatinic Acid: Wild Swings, Correction from Highs The price trend showed three stages: “stable—surge—pullback.” In the early stage, trading was sluggish due to the off-season, and prices were steady; in the middle stage, driven by soaring overseas platinum prices and a confluence of bullish sentiment related to tariffs and geopolitics, prices jumped quickly to new highs for the range; in the later stage, high prices dampened downstream purchase willingness and there was no incremental capital, causing market momentum to fade, and prices consolidated at highs on a subdued note. 2. Palladium Chloride: Leading Gains, Under Pressure at Highs Its trend was highly correlated with chloroplatinic acid, but its gains were more notable. Driven by a surge in international palladium prices, production costs rose sharply, and prices broke strongly through key levels to set recent highs. However, also constrained by weak downstream demand in the off-season, prices lacked sustained support after the rapid rise and eventually ended with high-level consolidation and a slight correction. 3. Rhodium Trichloride: Steady Strengthening, Mild Uptrend The market was independent of the sharp fluctuations in platinum and palladium and was generally firm. Supported by a slight rise in upstream raw material costs, enterprises tentatively raised their quotes. Although constrained by off-season demand, the upward pace was mild and orderly, with no extreme fluctuations, showing a healthy pattern of steady gains. 4. Chloroiridic Acid and Ruthenium Trichloride: Independent Trends, Stable Operation The two products were largely unaffected by the surge in sentiment around platinum and palladium. Chloroiridic acid moved independently in a mild, slow uptrend with minimal fluctuations; ruthenium trichloride remained in low-level sideways movement, ending the period with only a small gain. Both had independent supply-demand patterns, with no trend-like sharp rises or falls throughout the period, and were the most stable. III. Core Operating Logic 1. Costs and Sentiment Dominated Prices The core driver of the surge in platinum and palladium compounds was cost transmission from soaring overseas raw material prices, coupled with events such as overseas tariff and geopolitical expectations, which heated up speculative sentiment and amplified short-term fluctuations. In contrast, iridium, ruthenium, and rhodium products were relatively independent due to weak linkages. 2. Off-Season Demand Capped Gains Concentrated maintenance by downstream end-users caused rigid demand to contract sharply, creating a mismatched pattern of “high prices and weak demand.” Enterprises generally implemented light inventory strategies, with no concentrated stockpiling, directly causing platinum and palladium products lacking fundamental support to quickly come under pressure. 3. Profit Margins Squeezed from Both Sides Sharp rises in upstream raw material costs and weak downstream demand squeezed corporate profits from both directions. To stimulate transactions and relieve inventory pressure, producers and traders generally lowered processing fees; pricing concessions to facilitate transactions became the industry norm. IV. Market Outlook In the short term, China’s platinum group compounds market will continue to show a pattern of cost-led prices, constrained demand, and structural divergence: First, chloroplatinic acid, palladium chloride and other products will continue to consolidate at highs on a subdued note. Going forward, prices will remain highly dependent on overseas market trends; however, before downstream demand in the off-season recovers, high prices will lack sustained support and momentum for a one-sided advance will be insufficient. Prices are expected to be mainly range-bound with slight corrections. Second, niche products such as rhodium trichloride, chloroiridic acid and ruthenium trichloride are subject to limited external disruption and, with mild support from raw material costs, prices are steady with a modest upward bias. However, they are also constrained by off-season demand, so a strong trend-driven rally is unlikely in the short term; overall, they are expected to be dominated by narrow fluctuations and a mild, slow uptrend.

SMM, August 11: The SMM A00 spot aluminum price closed at 24,100 yuan/mt today, up 110 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In China's scrap aluminum market, tense scrap prices held steady with a wait-and-see stance, while bare bright aluminum wire and aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint rose in tandem. Regarding the price difference, on August 11, the price difference between A00 aluminum and mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was about 2,360 yuan/mt, and the price difference between A00 aluminum and shredded aluminum tense scrap was about 1,260 yuan/mt. As primary aluminum prices continued to climb, scrap aluminum showed insufficient upward momentum, and the price difference widened again. Demand for secondary aluminum alloys and their downstream sectors weakened marginally. Coupled with high inventories of wrought aluminum raw materials like doors and windows in Henan and other regions, the price transmission mechanism for scrap aluminum was hindered, leaving upward momentum clearly weak. Affected by the traditional consumption off-season, operating rates at downstream cast aluminum alloy enterprises kept declining, order volumes shrank, and the scrap aluminum market lacked substantive support. Looking ahead, the supply-demand mismatch pattern is unlikely to reverse in the short term. Scrap utilization enterprises will likely maintain strategies of purchasing as needed and low-inventory operations, with market trading atmosphere seeing little substantial improvement. This week, shredded aluminum tense scrap priced based on aluminum content is expected to be dragged down by stagnant raw material prices and weak downstream demand, operating under overall pressure, with the prevailing trading range anticipated to center around 20,200-20,800 yuan/mt.

SMM August 11: In July, China's primary aluminum alloy industry exhibited a pattern characterized by a short-term surge followed by a slowdown. In terms of production data, production that month posted 309,000 mt, up 6.1% MoM, with the industry's operating rate moving up in tandem. However, this production rebound was not driven by end-use demand, but rather reflected a phase of behavioral adjustments along the industry chain. Demand transmission side, the automotive industry has entered the traditional consumption off-season, end-user purchasing willingness remains relatively weak, and primary aluminum alloy enterprises continue to focus on fulfilling long-term contracts, with limited growth in new orders. When aluminum prices dipped to relatively low levels in mid-month, downstream enterprises, motivated by cost management considerations, engaged in concentrated bargain-hunting restocking activity, easing shipment pressures for alloy enterprises to a certain extent and prompting them to raise production loads. However, towards month-end, as aluminum prices rebounded into elevated ranges, buying interest from downstream sectors contracted sharply, with significantly reduced capacity to absorb high-priced raw materials, and market transactions turned sluggish. Looking ahead, primary aluminum alloy production in August is expected to face downward pressure, as earlier concentrated bargain-hunting restocking activity has partially exhausted near-term raw material demand, coupled with aluminum prices currently consolidating on a strong note. Rising financial pressures on downstream enterprises will further dampen procurement sentiment, while the outlook for new orders at alloy enterprises remains pessimistic, potentially leading them to proactively scale back output levels. Unlike the domestic demand fluctuations in the primary alloy market, the aluminum wheel hub segment has demonstrated strong resilience in external demand. In June, China's exports of aluminum wheels rose 17.7% MoM, with the YoY increase widening to 20.5%. On one hand, a low export base in May provided room for this MoM growth; on the other hand, the release of demand for NEVs in overseas markets, with significant new orders for procurement from key export destinations, directly boosted total exports. At the same time, the price spread between domestic and overseas aluminum prices has been stabilizing, and the earlier drag on exports is easing. Overall, exports strengthened in both volume and price in June, reflecting the continued reliance of markets outside China on the country's wheel supply chain. Looking at the bigger picture, the aluminum processing industry is currently in a state where 'domestic sales are under pressure, and exports are filling the gap.' Primary aluminum alloy is constrained by the off-season in end-use demand and downstream fear of high prices, so the sustainability of the production rebound is questionable, with a strong expectation of contraction in August; meanwhile, supported by overseas demand for NEVs, the momentum in exports is expected to be sustained, making it one of the few bright spots in current aluminum downstream consumption. In the near term, key attention should be paid to how aluminum price trends will further steer downstream procurement pace, and the potential disruptions from overseas trade policies on wheel exports. (The information above is based on market data and a comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team, and is provided for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice, clients should make decisions prudently and not replace their independent judgment with this. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.) Data source: SMM

[Liquidity Tightening Weighs on Risk Appetite; Destocking Supports Aluminum Prices Holding Up Well] Overall, differences over the Middle East situation persist. Although the US Fed did not raise rates in July, its overall stance remained hawkish. The fundamental supply gap continued, aluminum ingot inventory kept declining, and aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note in the short term.

Chaoying Electronics announced a plan to invest in the construction of a high-multilayer and HDI printed circuit board P3 project. The project is located in Huangshi City, Hubei Province, with an estimated total investment of 2.086 billion yuan, funded by self-owned or self-raised funds, and a construction period of 24 months. After completion and operation, the project will effectively break through the capacity bottleneck of the company's storage PCB products, significantly enhancing the mass production of high-end storage products and the supporting delivery capability for core clients; at the same time, it will steadily expand the capacity of high-end automotive electronics PCB, supporting a small amount of AI server PCB capacity, and fully meet the high-end market demand across multiple downstream sectors.

[Zinc Oxide Operating Rates Decline, Market Demand Weak] This week, the decline in operating rates of zinc oxide enterprises was mainly due to enterprises that planned to resume production soon still commissioning their equipment, while some enterprises in the market suspended production because of the demand impact. End-use demand, downstream sectors' demand continued to be weak overall this week......