[End-Use Demand Performance Weak, Zinc Oxide Demand Mediocre] Currently, it is in the traditional consumption off-season. Demand in downstream sectors such as rubber, feed, and chemicals shows no noticeable improvement, with limited incremental volume of end-user orders. This is dragging down the production willingness of zinc oxide enterprises, and operating rates continue to weaken...

Over the next 1-2 weeks, the domestic petroleum coke market is expected to mainly edge lower amid stability. Low-sulphur petroleum coke prices will face relatively greater downward pressure, while mid and high-sulphur petroleum coke may see limited declines due to rigid demand support from the prebaked anode industry. The overall market will remain in the doldrums.

[SMM Aluminum Express] The proportion of liquid aluminum rebounded by 0.12 percentage points WoW this week, with moderate demand for liquid aluminum. Downstream processing sectors showed divergent performance. Although in the consumption off-season, strong export demand in some sectors partly offset weak domestic demand. Weekly operating rates of secondary alloy, aluminum plate/sheet and strip, and aluminum foil weakened, while primary alloy operating performance recovered. The aluminum wire and cable and aluminum extrusion sectors generally stabilized. Overall, the weekly operating rate of downstream leaders edged down 0.1 percentage point WoW this week.

HRC futures closed at 3,399 today, up 0.06% for the day. Spot side, spot HRC held steady, while cold-rolled was stable to down 10 yuan/mt. Overall transactions today were dominated by low prices, with trading being lackluster. News side, the US adjusted tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper, which was positive for agricultural machinery products but bearish for steel overall. HRC maintenance data was released today. According to SMM, the impact from maintenance on hot-rolled mills this week was 142,500 mt, down 43,000 mt WoW. Next week, the impact from maintenance on hot-rolled mills will be 60,000 mt, down 82,500 mt WoW, and supply is expected to continue to rebound. Demand side, off-season sentiment was strong among downstream sectors, with market shipments and transactions clearly struggling. Prices showed a tendency to weaken, but considering that raw materials still offered support, coupled with the fact that supply-demand imbalances had not yet begun to accumulate significantly, looking ahead, the market is expected to hold prices firm as the dominant strategy, oscillating amid the interplay between off-season fundamentals and cost support.

According to SMM, due to booming orders from downstream sectors such as AI, demand for high-end copper foil materials including RTF and HVLP series increased. Some enterprises in China, Japan, and South Korea shifted part of their regular copper foil capacity to high-end copper foil, resulting in reduced supply of regular HTE series copper foil. Consequently, SMM electronic circuit copper foil premiums rose across all series.

SMM May 28 update: The minor metal sector strengthened on May 28. As of the close on May 28, the minor metal sector rose 3.44%. In terms of individual stocks: Sino-Platinum Metals, Yunnan Germanium Industry, and China Molybdenum hit the daily limit, while China Minmetals Rare Earth, China Tungsten And Hightech, China Northern Rare Earth, and China Rare Earth led the gains. On the news front: According to authoritative local media in Zimbabwe and Xinhua News Agency, the Zimbabwean government recently issued the Mineral Classification and Declaration, explicitly listing lithium and other high-value minerals as "critical minerals" subject to equity and export controls. The critical minerals involved include 14 types: lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, copper, rare earth elements, chromium, platinum group metals (PGMs), manganese, antimony, uranium, ruthenium, tungsten, and niobium. The market is focused on the impact of tightening resource-country policies on global supply chains, with sentiment warming for minor metal varieties such as antimony and tungsten. Spot market Tungsten According to SMM pricing, on May 28, the average price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) was 415,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), up 1.22% from the previous trading day. Notably, after wolframite concentrates previously experienced a 61.88% decline over more than two months, driven by increased purchasing demand in the tungsten market, tungsten prices saw a rebound over two trading days. Currently, transactions in the tungsten concentrates market have improved, suppliers are bullish and hold back from selling, high-grade ore sees an upward shift in transaction center, while medium and low-grade ore circulates more but price increases appear lackluster. Downstream APT industry operating rates have slightly improved, but with limited new orders in the industry, smelters are cautious in restocking, with only small volumes of spot orders and large orders transacted in the market. Regarding the tungsten outlook, in the short term, driven by orderly inventory destocking, the return of downstream rigid demand, and the formation of pricing consensus among industry leaders, the tungsten market has overall entered a consolidation-at-lows and recovery phase. Going forward, key attention should be paid to the execution of long-term contracts and the pace of end-use demand recovery. According to SMM surveys, downstream cemented carbide alloy enterprises have seen inventory drop to low levels, with expectations of rigid restocking demand, but influenced by the market not yet being fully stabilized, enterprises remain cautious in procurement, generally adopting a small-order purchasing model. If upstream raw material inventory continues to be cleared and supply-demand imbalances are alleviated, tungsten prices are expected to enter a stabilization and consolidation phase in June-July. In the medium and long-term, the gap in Q3 mining quota transitions may lead to a contraction in market supply, coupled with expectations of the traditional September-October peak season, the industrial supply-demand structure will continue to optimize, thereby providing bullish support for tungsten prices. Rare Earths After the rally on May 27, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide on May 28 fell 1.79% from the previous trading day, and inquiries in the rare earth oxide market were sluggish on the 28th. Affected by futures price fluctuations combined with periodic restocking by some major producers, Pr-Nd oxide prices fluctuated frequently this week. Upstream and downstream players continued their stalemate, with suppliers maintaining relatively firm offers overall, while downstream metal producers maintained a strong wait-and-see sentiment and showed low purchase willingness at high prices. Absent other news-driven factors, Pr-Nd oxide is expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term before any significant change in the supply-demand relationship. Institutional Views Huafu Securities noted in its research report dated May 24, when commenting on other minor metals: rare earths performed weakly, while tantalum pentoxide surged during the week. In the rare earth market, end-use demand from downstream magnetic material sectors remained weak, with no large-scale concentrated restocking observed — only sporadic rigid-demand small orders were transacted, and the demand side consistently failed to provide effective support for the market. Market sentiment fluctuated significantly, with frequent tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Overall industry confidence was insufficient, with a notable stalemate between upstream and downstream on offer and bid prices, and significant divergence within the industry regarding the outlook for subsequent market trends. On Friday, the market maintained a wait-and-see attitude, awaiting changes in the magnetic material restocking pace and a recovery in downstream demand. Individual stocks: for antimony, Hunan Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Huayu Mining are recommended; for molybdenum, China Moly, China Gold, and CMOC; for tungsten, Jiaxin International Resources, China Tungsten High-Tech, Xiamen Tungsten, and Zhangyuan Tungsten; for rare earths, China Rare Earth, China Northern Rare Earth, JL MAG Rare-Earth, and Xiamen Tungsten. Kaiyuan Securities' mid-year 2026 investment strategy for the metals sector indicated: Copper: Supply side, most ex-China miners continued to face declining ore grades and recovery rates, with disruption factors persisting (Ivanhoe's Kamoa-Kakula copper mine, Codelco's El Teniente copper mine). Although China's domestic enterprises added incremental capacity, the overall increase was limited. Under optimistic assumptions, global supply growth from 2026 to 2027 may fall below 2%. Demand side, power demand in both China and the U.S. maintained high growth rates in H1, which is expected to contribute marginal incremental copper demand. Kaiyuan Securities believes that the supply-demand structural imbalance for copper will become more pronounced in 2026, supporting a rise in the copper price center. Lithium: Supply side, capital expenditure in the lithium industry contracted and supply discipline gradually took shape. Combined with frequent disruptions, supply elasticity in the lithium industry has declined notably compared to before. Meanwhile, energy storage demand sustained high prosperity, driving gradual improvement in the lithium demand structure and marginal easing of inventory pressure. Lithium prices are expected to see a phased recovery. Lithium enterprises with resource security, low-cost advantages, and integrated layouts are expected to see earnings recovery elasticity outperforming the industry average. Lithium mine and lithium chemicals companies with high resource self-sufficiency rates and strong cost control capabilities are worth watching. Tungsten: As a strategic metal where China holds a dominant position, tungsten ore supply is constrained by resource depletion, environmental protection, and other factors. Combined with the government's total volume control on tungsten ore mining, tungsten ore production release remains limited. Demand side, emerging sectors are boosting tungsten demand, which is expected to provide long-term support for tungsten prices. According to a CITIC Securities research report, the current metals sector valuation remains at a reasonable level, with aluminum, copper, nickel-cobalt-tin-antimony, and gold valuations at relatively low levels, and a valuation rebound is still anticipated. Sector dividends have pulled back slightly, but the projected dividend yields of some individual stocks still exceed 5%. Looking ahead to 2026, liquidity shocks are expected to ease, supply disruptions are expected to occur frequently, and certain downstream sectors are expected to sustain relatively high prosperity. It is recommended to maintain a focus on allocation opportunities in lithium, copper, rare earths, strategic metals, aluminum, and gold sectors. Recommended Reading:

[SMM Lithium Battery Electrolyte Market Weekly Review: Electrolyte Prices Edged Up This Week (2026.5.25-5.28)] From May 25 to May 28, 2026, electrolyte prices edged up. As raw material price increases were gradually and smoothly transmitted to downstream sectors, electrolyte prices are still expected to have room to rise in the future market.

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Rare Earth Prices Fluctuated, Upstream and Downstream Remained in Stalemate] Affected by futures price fluctuations combined with periodic restocking by some major producers, Pr-Nd oxide prices fluctuated relatively frequently. Upstream and downstream continued to remain in a stalemate, with suppliers maintaining relatively firm offers overall, while downstream metal producers maintained a strong wait-and-see sentiment. As of today, Pr-Nd oxide prices fluctuated downward to 682,000-688,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Brass Billet News] The industry has entered the traditional consumption off-season, with weak end-use demand showing no signs of improvement, which has become the core factor dragging down industry performance. Order follow-through in key downstream sectors such as home appliances, refrigeration, and sanitary hardware remained sluggish. End-users exhibited strong wait-and-see sentiment, with subdued purchase willingness, mostly making just-in-time procurement, and new orders were scarce.

The brass billet industry continued to be in the doldrums under the triple pressures of the traditional off-season, high raw material costs, and weak demand. According to SMM data, the brass billet industry operating rate registered 52.14% this week (5.15-5.21), down 0.2 percentage points WoW, extending the low-level trend since late April.