Wells Fargo Securities' bull-case forecast for gold suggests that after last month's pullback in gold prices, gold prices could surge remarkably to $8,000 per ounce . Before the US-Iran war broke out on February 28 this year, gold had been one of the hottest market momentum plays of the year. However, after the war began, gold prices declined. In March, gold futures prices fell nearly 11%, marking the largest single-month decline since June 2013. But the Wall Street investment bank expects the "debasement trade" — in which central banks around the world sell fiat currencies such as the US dollar in favor of more neutral safe-haven assets — could push the precious metal to new heights. Wells Fargo Securities' chief equity strategist Ohsung Kwon wrote: "We are in the fourth currency debasement cycle, which started in 2022." Kwon added: "After the recent pullback in gold prices, prices are now closer to our model's fair value of $4,500 per ounce. Looking at the three drivers, all of them suggest that currency debasement will deepen further from current levels." The strategist said that four out of five economic scenarios point to further currency debasement, and gold prices could rise to $8,000 per ounce by 2027 as a result . Spot gold and gold futures were last trading near $4,800 per ounce, implying more than 66% upside room . Conversely, Kwon's bear-case forecast shows gold prices falling to $4,000 per ounce by the end of 2027, a decline of about 17% from current levels. Kwon uses the M2/gold ratio — M2 money supply divided by the gold price per ounce — to identify the current cycle. The analyst said the ratio shows that the latest debasement cycle began in 2022, when Russia launched its military operation against Ukraine and the US entered a rate-hiking cycle, prompting central banks worldwide to ramp up gold purchases. Previous currency debasement cycles for gold occurred during: the Great Depression; the "Nixon Shock" — when then-President Richard Nixon ended the convertibility of the US dollar into gold — and the subsequent stagflation era; the War on Terror in the early 2000s; and the subprime mortgage crisis. Kwon added that currency debasement cycles last an average of 8.5 years, and the current cycle, at 3.5 years in, has not yet reached its halfway point.

SMM, April 17: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market rose nearly across the board. SHFE copper fell 0.14%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.67%. SHFE lead fell 0.39%, and SHFE zinc rose 0.68%. SHFE tin rose 0.34%, and SHFE nickel rose 2.05%. In addition, the continuous contract for casting aluminum futures edged up slightly, and the alumina continuous contract rose 0.68%. The lithium carbonate continuous contract rose 1.84%. The silicon metal continuous contract rose 0.71%. The polysilicon continuous contract fell 0.78%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 0.06%, rebar rose 0.45%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.24%, and stainless steel rose 2.34%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.45%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.62%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.09%. LME aluminum fell 0.25%, LME lead rose 0.51%, and LME zinc rose 0.25%. LME tin fell 0.31%. LME nickel rose 1.61%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.14%, and COMEX silver rose 0.37%. Domestic precious metals: the SHFE gold continuous contract fell 0.38%, and the SHFE silver continuous contract fell 0.91%. In addition, as of the midday close, the platinum continuous contract fell 1.94%, and the palladium continuous contract fell 1.7%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 4.85%, closing at 2,095 points. As of 11:40 on April 17, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot Prices and Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 250 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 170 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 102,040 yuan/mt, down 505 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,455 yuan/mt, down 350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro Front China: [NDRC: This Year Will Focus on Launching a Series of Actions to Expand Effective Investment in Areas Such as "AI+" Infrastructure] The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the morning of April 17 under the series theme of "Getting Off to a Good Start for the 15th Five-Year Plan." Wang Changlin, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated that this year the focus will be on areas such as "AI+" infrastructure, urban renewal, the national water network, and new-type energy systems, launching a series of actions to expand effective investment and promote the optimization of supply structure and the expansion of market demand. In terms of institutional and mechanism innovation, we will comprehensively carry out "soft construction" work in central government investment projects to promote the formation of long-term mechanisms for project construction, implementation, operation, and maintenance. At the same time, we will leverage the role of the national venture capital guidance fund to guide and drive social capital in supporting technological innovation and the development of emerging industries. Wang Changlin stated that recently, in response to the impact of changes in the international situation on China's oil and gas imports, the government has adopted comprehensive measures to effectively ensure sufficient domestic oil product supply and stable market operations, fully demonstrating the achievements of China's new-type energy system construction. Going forward, efforts will be made to accelerate the high-quality development of non-fossil energy, coordinate centralized and distributed clean energy development, and make every effort to increase the scale of non-fossil energy power production and consumption. Through the above efforts, it is expected that by 2030, the supply scale of non-fossil energy will increase significantly compared to 2025, and by 2035, it will double compared to 2025. [NDRC: Efforts to Expand Effective Domestic Demand, with a Plan to Formulate the 2026–2030 Implementation Plan for the Strategy of Expanding Domestic Demand] The State Council Information Office held a press conference in the series of "Getting Off to a Good Start in the 15th Five-Year Plan," introducing the relevant situation of promoting high-quality economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Wang Changlin, Deputy Director of the NDRC, stated that since the beginning of this year, the economy has shown positive changes, with notable improvements on both the supply and demand sides, better playing the role of a stabilizer for the global economy, and performing better than the expectations of many institutions and experts in and outside China. Going forward, efforts should focus on five key areas of work. [Pan Gongsheng: Implementing a Moderately Accommodative Monetary Policy and Measures to Boost Consumption] Pan Gongsheng stated that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China will adhere to a domestic demand-driven approach, implement policy measures to boost consumption, vigorously develop the service sector, closely integrate investment in physical assets with investment in human capital, promote productivity growth, accelerate green transformation and sustainable development, unswervingly advance high-level opening-up, and drive high-quality development. The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, support Chinese-style modernization with high-quality financial services, and contribute China's strength to global economic growth. (People's Bank of China) [MIIT and Four Other Departments Jointly Issue the Guidelines for Green Design of Industrial Products (2026 Edition)] MIIT and four other departments jointly issued the Guidelines for Green Design of Industrial Products (2026 Edition). The Guidelines adapt to new changes and requirements in the green and low-carbon development landscape in and outside China, build consensus on green design across industries, and specify 11 key directions, namely long-life design, non-toxic design, lightweight design, energy-saving design, water-saving design, material-saving design, noise reduction design, space-saving design, easy-to-recycle-and-regenerate design, reusable design, and zero-carbon design. TheThe Guidelines further closely integrate 11 green design priority areas with practical industry applications, using 15 key industries as typical examples to develop 126 detailed solutions, guiding product R&D personnel in practicing green design concepts and methods. (MIIT WeChat) [PBOC reverse repo operations achieve net withdrawal of 1.5 billion yuan on the day] The PBOC conducted 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 1.5 billion yuan was achieved on the day. This week, the PBOC conducted a total of 3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations. As a total of 3.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured this week, a net withdrawal of 500 million yuan was achieved for the week. (Jin10 Data) On the US dollar front: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.04% to 98.24. StoneX analyst Matt Simpson said in a research note that, based on technical analysis, the US dollar index may edge up in the short term. On Thursday, the 200-day simple moving average formed a "mildly bullish" pattern, and the two-day relative strength index was in extremely oversold territory. However, there are multiple resistance levels, including the 200-day exponential moving average at 98.44 that bulls need to test — or a level that bears need to watch for signs of reversal to reopen a broader bearish trend. Data shows the US dollar index is currently holding near the 98.249 level. (Jin10 Data) On the data front, US initial jobless claims fell last week, indicating that labour market conditions remained stable, even as employers remained cautious about hiring new workers as the Middle East conflict cast a shadow over the economy. The latest data showed US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 fell by 11,000 to 207,000, below market expectations of 215,000. Initial jobless claims this year have remained within the range of 201,000 to 230,000. While layoffs remain low, the oil price shock from a potential US-Israeli war against Iran may have hindered hiring. Economists said the labour market was already in a state of stagnation before the war broke out, attributable to the uncertainty brought by Trump's sweeping import tariffs and mass deportations. Economists said the Middle East conflict is just another layer of uncertainty facing enterprises. (Jin10 Data) US Fed Governor Miran said that, given the inflation situation that existed before the Middle East conflict, he may again lower his expectations for interest rate cuts this year. Miran said: "If I were to write my dot on the dot plot now, I would lean toward 3 interest rate cuts, possibly 4. I haven't decided yet."In March, Miran expected four 25-basis-point interest rate cuts this year, but he noted that the pace of rate cuts could slow down if price trends became "less favorable." According to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April was 0.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 99.5%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the US Fed through June was 1.4%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 98%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 0.5%. (Jin Shi Data) Data: The eurozone February seasonally adjusted current account and eurozone February seasonally adjusted trade balance data are to be released today. Also worth watching: 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly is scheduled to deliver a speech. Crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices on both markets declined, with WTI crude down 1.25% and Brent crude down 1.02%. US President Trump, speaking to the media on the White House South Lawn on the 16th, said the US might hold another round of face-to-face negotiations with Iran this weekend, adding that he would consider heading to Pakistan to sign the deal if a peace agreement were reached between the US and Iran. Trump said he hoped to reach a permanent ceasefire peace agreement before the two-week temporary ceasefire agreement with Iran expires, without having to extend it. (Xinhua News Agency) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

According to Reuters, trade sources said that Indian banks had suspended orders for importing gold and silver from suppliers outside China, with large quantities of precious metals stuck at customs , as the government had yet to issue a formal order authorizing the import of these precious metals. As India is the world's second-largest gold consumer and the largest silver buyer, with nearly all of its demand relying on ex-China purchases, the country could face a supply deficit without new imports. Weak Indian demand could weigh on global gold and silver prices , while narrowing the country's trade deficit and supporting the rupee. The rupee has been one of Asia's worst-performing currencies so far this year. Authorities had taken several measures to ease pressure on the rupee, including recently urging refiners to limit their spot dollar purchases. The suspension of gold and silver import orders by Indian banks from overseas suppliers, as well as the backlog of large quantities of precious metals at customs due to the lack of a formal government authorization order, had not been previously reported. The Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), under India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry, typically issues an order at the beginning of each fiscal year listing the banks authorized by the Reserve Bank of India to import gold and silver. The order previously issued in April 2025 was valid until the end of the last fiscal year (March 31), and banks were currently awaiting a new directive from the DGFT. The DGFT did not immediately respond to Reuters' request for comment. A bullion dealer at a private bank in Mumbai said that banks had expected the DGFT to issue the order in early April as in previous years, but no new announcement had been made so far, resulting in more than 5 mt of gold stuck and unable to clear customs . The dealer said the uncertainty over the timing of the DGFT order had led banks to suspend new import orders from overseas suppliers. The dealer requested anonymity as they were not authorized to speak to the media. Sources said that approximately 8 mt of imported silver was also stuck and unable to clear customs . Another bullion dealer said there was no point in placing new orders when previous shipments could not clear customs. According to data from the World Gold Council, India's gold demand fell to 710.9 mt in 2025, the lowest level in five years. Sources said that gold and silver inventory imported in previous months was being depleted, and the market was now relying on sales from exchange-traded funds, which were facing redemptions. Mehta Surendra, Secretary of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association, said: "Clear rules are needed to ensure imports resume." Mehta stated that without imports, a supply deficit would emerge, and premiums would rise after Akshaya Tritiya, India's second-largest gold-buying festival. A bullion dealer in Kolkata said that as the Iran conflict drove up prices of oil, natural gas, and fertilizers, India's import bill in April could rise, which might prompt the government to slow down gold and silver imports to control the trade deficit.

Gold edged higher on Thursday as a softer dollar helped support prices, even as optimism over a possible ceasefire between the US and Iran improved broader market sentiment and reduced some demand for traditional havens.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Improved Macro Sentiment, LME Zinc Price Center Rose] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,400/mt. In early trading, it briefly moved lower and tested below $3,398/mt, then bulls increased open interest, and LME zinc fluctuated upward all the way, hitting above $3,439/mt in the night session. It finally closed up at $3,420.5/mt, up $20.5/mt, a gain of 0.6%. Trading volume fell to 9,595 lots, and open interest increased by 1,972 lots to 219,000 lots.

SMM April 17 News: Metals Market: Overnight, domestic base metals generally rose. SHFE copper fell 0.06%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.97%, SHFE lead fell 0.98%. SHFE zinc rose 0.08%. SHFE tin rose 0.05%. SHFE nickel rose 0.11%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.42%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.72%. Overnight, ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore rose 0.45%, stainless steel rose 1.39%, rebar rose 0.42%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.33%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 0.28%, coke rose 0.74%. Overnight, overseas metals generally rose. LME copper fell 0.26%. LME aluminum rose 0.55%, LME lead fell 0.99%. LME zinc rose 0.6%. LME tin rose 1.31%. LME nickel rose 0.41%. Overnight Precious Metals : COMEX gold fell 0.26%, COMEX silver fell 1.47%. Overnight SHFE gold rose 0.17%, SHFE silver fell 1.43%. As of 7:02 AM on April 17, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: Launching 2026 Central Fiscal Support for Urban Renewal Action] The General Office of the Ministry of Finance and the General Office of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a notice on launching the 2026 central fiscal support for urban renewal action. The notice stated that the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will select, through competitive evaluation, certain cities with strong foundational conditions, high enthusiasm, and distinctive features, to integrate various resources at the city level, explore the establishment of guarantee mechanisms for funding, land use, finance, and other key factors, and form a coordinated effort. The central government will provide fixed-amount subsidies to selected cities. Selected cities will formulate urban renewal work plans, coordinate the use of central and local funds, significantly improve urban infrastructure levels, enhance the living environment in old districts, refine laws and regulations, planning standards, investment and financing mechanisms, and related supporting policies, and explore replicable and scalable mechanisms and models for urban renewal. In 2026, the scope of central fiscal support for urban renewal covers prefecture-level and above cities, with no more than 15 cities to be selected. [State Administration for Market Regulation: Dynamically Adjusting CCC Certification Catalog to Avoid Low-Price, Low-Quality Involution-Style Competition] The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) deployed a nationwide special campaign to safeguard the bottom line of CCC certification, strengthening CCC certification supervision across the entire chain and in all dimensions to create a safe and reassuring consumer environment. Compulsory product certification, commonly known as CCC certification, is a conformity assessment system with market access nature established by the Chinese government in accordance with WTO rules and international practices. Products listed in the CCC certification catalog must obtain certification before they can be shipped, imported, or sold. This special campaign emphasized strictness. Comprehensive supervisory inspections will be conducted on designated certification bodies, focusing on key areas such as power banks, e-bikes, and gas-burning appliances, with effectiveness spot checks. The campaign will further advance the pilot reform of CCC certification marks, precisely crack down on fraudulent CCC certification marks, and strengthen product quality responsibility traceability. A SAMR official stated that, to further strengthen source governance of product quality and safety, the CCC certification catalog will be optimized with dynamic management, and research will be conducted to bring products involving industrial safety, public safety, and personal health safety under CCC certification management. In response to issues arising after some products in the CCC certification catalog adopted self-declaration evaluation, such as some enterprises failing to fulfill quality responsibilities and false commitments leading to declining product quality, SAMR has switched 16 product categories, including small-power motors and automotive safety glass, to third-party certification management. Certification and detection institutions are required to conduct cost accounting and charge reasonable fees based on publicly disclosed standards after accounting, to avoid low-price, low-quality involution-style competition. (CCTV News) [National Energy Administration Deploys Nationwide Special Campaign to Improve Power Supply Quality] Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration issued a notice, organizing local government departments, power grid enterprises, user enterprises, industry associations, and other parties to work in coordination. Focusing on new requirements for power supply quality arising from the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, the cultivation and expansion of emerging industries, and the forward-looking development of future industries, the campaign centers on addressing key issues such as voltage sags. Targeting full coverage of terminal monitoring for new quality productive forces-related enterprises sensitive to power quality, and significantly reducing the impact of voltage sags on key power supply lines on the production and operations of new quality productive forces-related enterprises, a series of specific measures were proposed. The special campaign for power supply quality improvement will be implemented over three years, with all tasks to be fully completed by the end of 2028, driving stronger power supply assurance capabilities for high-quality development of new quality productive forces, broader coverage, more effective support, and more efficient service response, striving to address the "lingering concerns" of new quality productive forces development and providing safer and more efficient energy and power support for high-quality economic and social development. (National Energy Administration) [Chinese Research Team Pioneers Green Extraction Technology for Critical Metals] A research team composed of Researcher Gao Jun and Professor Li Chaoxu from the Qingdao Institute of Bioenergy and Bioprocess Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the National Key Laboratory of Solar Energy Photoelectric Conversion and Utilization, together with Researcher Jiang Lei from the Technical Institute of Physics and Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, successfully developed a universal heavy metal ion membrane separation method inspired by biological calcium ion channels. This method can efficiently, greenly, and selectively extract uranium, copper, gold, and other heavy metal resources critical to new energy, and is expected to solve the long-standing challenges of high pollution, low efficiency, and high energy consumption in traditional heavy metal resource extraction technologies. (CCTV News) [Nanjing: Expanding Housing Provident Fund Cross-Regional Loan Coverage to All of Anhui Province] The Nanjing Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued a notice to optimize housing provident fund usage policies. It specified that the scope of housing provident fund cross-regional loans will be expanded to cover all of Anhui province. Building on the existing 17 cities in Jiangsu and Anhui provinces, the cross-regional loan coverage will be extended to all of Anhui province. Housing provident fund contributors in all 29 cities across Jiangsu and Anhui provinces can apply for housing provident fund loans from the Nanjing Housing Provident Fund Management Center when purchasing property in Nanjing. Nanjing housing provident fund contributors purchasing owner-occupied housing in any city in Anhui province can process housing provident fund purchase withdrawals and loan repayment withdrawals in accordance with Nanjing's relevant policies, without restrictions based on the contributor's workplace or household registration location. [Zhengzhou: Adjusting the Upper Age Limit for Housing Provident Fund Personal Housing Loan Borrowers] The Zhengzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued a notice on adjusting the upper age limit for housing provident fund personal housing loan borrowers. After deliberation, it was decided to adjust the upper age limit. For employees with delayed retirement applying for housing provident fund personal housing loans, subject to a maximum loan term of no more than 30 years, the loan maturity age for males is extended from the original 65 to 68, and for females from the original 60 to 63. This notice takes effect from the date of issuance. Matters not covered herein shall be governed by existing policies, and where the state has other provisions, those provisions shall prevail. US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.12% to 98.2. US Fed Governor Miran stated that, given the inflation situation that existed before the Middle East conflict, he may again lower his interest rate cut expectations for this year. Miran said: "If I were writing my dot on the dot plot now, I would lean toward 3 cuts, maybe 4. I haven't decided yet." In March, Miran projected four 25-basis-point interest rate cuts this year, but he indicated that the pace of cuts could slow down as price trends became "less favorable." Former US Treasury Secretary Paulson called on the US government to develop a contingency plan to prevent a potential collapse in demand for US Treasuries. He warned that such a scenario would have "extremely serious" consequences. Paulson said: "We need an emergency response plan that is targeted and short-term, prepared in advance, and ready to be activated once a tipping point is reached." Paulson noted that if the $31 trillion US Treasury market were to malfunction, it would be fundamentally different from the financial crisis he dealt with during his tenure two decades ago. "It was already bad then, but the government still had fiscal space to address the credit crisis. But if a US public debt crisis occurs, hitting a tipping point where the government tries to issue Treasuries but the US Fed is the only buyer, and Treasury prices fall while interest rates rise, that would be a very dangerous situation." For years, US budget experts have warned of a potential "doom loop": as government debt continues to expand, investors demand higher yields, driving up government interest expenses and further widening the fiscal deficit. In an extreme scenario, if the Treasury cannot raise enough funds to pay interest or principal, the market generally believes the US Fed would have to step in as an emergency buyer. Paulson said, "Once it happens, the shock will be very severe, so we must be prepared for this possibility." According to the CME FedWatch tool: the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the US Fed in April was 0.5%, with a 99.5% probability of holding rates unchanged. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut by June was 1.4%, with a 98% probability of holding rates unchanged and a 0.5% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike. (Jin10 Data) Additionally, on the data front, US initial jobless claims fell last week, indicating that labour market conditions remained stable, although employers remained cautious about hiring new workers as the Middle East conflict cast a shadow over the economy. The latest data showed that US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 fell by 11,000 to 207,000, below the market expectation of 215,000. Initial jobless claims this year have remained within the range of 201,000 to 230,000. While layoffs remained low, the oil price shock from the US-Israeli war against Iran may have hindered hiring. Economists noted that the labour market had already been in a state of stagnation before the war broke out, attributing it to the uncertainty brought by Trump's sweeping import tariffs and mass deportations. Economists said the Middle East conflict was just another layer of uncertainty for businesses. (Jin10 Data) Macro Front: Today, data including the eurozone February seasonally adjusted current account and the eurozone February seasonally adjusted trade balance will be released. Also worth watching: 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will deliver a speech. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil futures rose, with WTI up 1.72% and Brent up 3.46%. The market was concerned about whether renewed US-Iran peace negotiations could ease supply disruptions. The US launched an operation codenamed "Economic Fury" against Iran, imposing maximum economic pressure. The Iranian armed forces stated that Iran's military was fully prepared for defense. (Jin10 Data) US President Trump said he expected a deal with Iran to be announced soon, claiming the deal would bring the US "free oil" and "free passage through the Strait of Hormuz." When asked about the economy and oil prices, Trump said current oil prices were lower than previously expected. He said: "If you look at oil prices and what we're paying, it's about half of what people originally expected, provided you do what I had to do." He added: "I think the negotiations are going very well right now. If a deal is reached, it will be announced soon, and it will give us free oil and free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Everything will be fine. I think oil prices will be even lower than before." (Jin10 Data) CITIC Securities pointed out that the US-Israel-Iran conflict has effectively created three fault lines: oil price shocks on the energy front, physical disruptions on the supply front, and leverage games on the geopolitical front. The market's pricing of oil price shocks largely reflects cost-side pressure transmitting downstream, but this framework follows the old logic of a closed economy. Under global exposure, as ex-China supply capability is impaired by cost-side shocks, Chinese enterprises may see medium and long-term opportunities for margin expansion. As the world shifts from "efficiency first" to "security first," recurring conflicts will inevitably pose ongoing challenges to supply chains. Following three medium and long-term themes—accelerated electrification, order diversion and substitution, and supply chain diplomacy—actively going long on the resilience of China's supply chain will be an important investment theme for global investors to hedge against fluctuations and navigate through cycles.

SMM April 16: Metal market: As of the daytime close, domestic base metals generally rose, with SHFE tin being the only decliner, down 0.07%. SHFE aluminum led the gains with a 2.89% increase, while the rest of the metals gained less than 1%. The alumina front-month contract rose 1.44%, and the foundry aluminum front-month contract rose 1.62%. In addition, the lithium carbonate front-month contract rose 4.2%, polysilicon rose 1.08%, silicon metal rose 0.89%, and the Europe containerized freight front-month contract rose 4.75% to close at 2,044.7. Ferrous metals all posted gains to varying degrees except for stainless steel, which fell 0.03%. Iron ore rose 3.1%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar rose over 1%, with hot-rolled coil up 1.22% and rebar up 1.06%. Coking coal and coke side, coking coal rose 2.32% and coke rose 1.94%. Overseas market, as of 15:04, overseas base metals generally rose, with LME tin leading the gains at 1.41%, LME aluminum up 1.31%, and the rest of the metals gaining less than 1%. Precious metals, as of 15:04, COMEX gold rose 0.51% and COMEX silver rose 1.08%. In China, SHFE gold rose 0.17% and SHFE silver rose 1.43%. In addition, the platinum front-month contract rose 0.45%, and the palladium front-month contract fell 0.66%. Market data as of 15:04 today Macro Front China: [NBS: Q1 GDP Up 5% YoY! National Economy Off to a Good Start with Accelerating Industrial Production Growth] According to preliminary estimates by the NBS, Q1 GDP reached 33,419.3 billion yuan, up 5.0% YoY in real terms, accelerating by 0.5 percentage points from Q4 last year. By industry, the primary sector's value added was 1,194.1 billion yuan, up 3.8% YoY; the secondary sector's value added was 11,613.5 billion yuan, up 4.9%; and the tertiary sector's value added was 20,611.7 billion yuan, up 5.2%. On a QoQ basis, Q1 GDP grew 1.3%. In Q1, the value added of China's above-scale industrial enterprises rose 6.1% YoY, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points from Q4 last year. By three major categories, the value added of the mining industry rose 6.0% YoY, manufacturing rose 6.4%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water rose 4.3%. The value added of equipment manufacturing rose 8.9% YoY, and that of high-tech manufacturing rose 12.5%, outpacing the overall above-scale industrial value added by 2.8 and 6.4 percentage points, respectively. By economic type, value added of state-controlled enterprises increased 4.8% YoY; joint-stock enterprises rose 6.6%, foreign-funded enterprises and those with investment from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan rose 3.9%; and private enterprises rose 6.1%. By product, production of 3D printing equipment, lithium-ion batteries, and industrial robots increased 54.0%, 40.8%, and 33.2% YoY, respectively. In March, value added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 5.7% YoY and 0.28% MoM. In March, the manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month; the enterprise production and business activity expectations index was 53.4%. In January–February, industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide recorded total profits of 1,024.6 billion yuan, up 15.2% YoY. [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): China’s Imports and Exports Are Well Positioned to Maintain Solid Growth] Mao Shengyong, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), said at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that, based on years of practice, regardless of how the external environment changes, even during the pandemic when the market worried about whether China’s foreign trade could be sustained, China’s imports and exports have remained very strong. This was attributable to enterprises working hard to strengthen their fundamentals, enhance the technological content of products, and improve overall competitiveness. Overall, China’s imports and exports are still well positioned to maintain relatively solid growth. (Wallstreetcn) The PBOC conducted 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market, with the operation rate unchanged at 1.40%; 500 million yuan of reverse repos matured today. US dollar: As of 15:04, the US dollar index fell 0.05% to 98.03, marking a nine-session decline. Musalem of the US Fed said on Wednesday that high oil prices could push the underlying inflation rate for the remainder of this year to nearly one percentage point above the US Fed’s 2% target, and the US Fed may need to keep interest rates unchanged. Musalem said, “We are very likely to see some pass-through from oil prices to core inflation.” By the end of this year, the core measure of price increases would be “slightly below 3%, perhaps around 3%,” and there were risks of a further rise. Musalem said the US Fed may keep its policy rate in the current 3.50%–3.75% range “for some time,” while monitoring inflation, employment, and economic data in the coming months, and many of his colleagues shared the same view. The impact of last year’s tariff increases may gradually fade this quarter, and housing price inflation is also easing. As oil prices rise, inflation in a range of services has stayed high; if inflation begins to rise and could boost inflation expectations, he would be open to raising rates. Musalem also stated that the oil market is experiencing "the third negative supply shock in 12 months," which, combined with rising tariff rates and stricter immigration regulations, poses risks to both inflation prospects and the job market, potentially impacting economic growth. He predicted this year's economic growth would slow down but remain between 1.5% and 2%. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April stands at 1.6%, while the likelihood of maintaining unchanged rates is 98.4%. For June, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut is 0%, with a 98% chance of unchanged rates and a 2% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Today, the UK will release February's three-month GDP monthly rate, manufacturing output monthly rate, seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, and industrial output monthly rate. The eurozone will announce March's final CPI annual and monthly rates. The US will report initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for April, and March's industrial output monthly rate. Additionally, key events include: US Fed Governor Bowman speaking at the IIF forum; the Fed releasing its Beige Book; Bank of England Governor Bailey discussing global economic imbalances during IMF meetings; China's NBS publishing the monthly report on residential property prices in 70 major cities; a State Council press conference on national economic performance; the ECB releasing March's monetary policy meeting minutes; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivering remarks; US Fed Governor Milan speaking; and the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting. Crude oil side: As of 15:04, oil prices showed mixed performance, with WTI down 0.06% and Brent up 0.2%. Market uncertainty persists over whether US-Iran peace talks will yield an agreement. Last week, US crude exports surged to near-record highs to meet demand from Asian and European buyers seeking alternatives to disrupted Middle Eastern supplies due to the Iran conflict. This brought the US close to becoming a net crude exporter for the first time since WWII. However, analysts and traders noted the US is rapidly approaching its export capacity limit. Government data released Wednesday showed net crude imports (exports minus imports) narrowed to 66,000 barrels per day, the lowest since weekly records began in 2001, while exports rose to 5.2 million barrels per day, a seven-month high. Annual data indicates the US last achieved net exporter status in 1943. Jin10 Data APP) Documents released by the White House show that US President Trump issued multiple oil pipeline permits on Wednesday, including one for a new pipeline aimed at facilitating the transportation of crude oil and petroleum products between the US and Canada. The construction permit has been granted to Bakken Pipeline for pipeline facility construction in Burke County, North Dakota. Additionally, he issued other permits for the maintenance and operation of existing pipelines near border areas in North Dakota and Michigan. (Jin10 Data APP) SMM Daily Review ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[Intraday SHFE Zinc Fluctuated at Highs, Export Window Worth Watching]: The most-traded SHFE zinc 2605 contract opened at 23,910 yuan/mt. After the opening, SHFE zinc fluctuated around the daily average line. It touched a high of 24,000 yuan/mt early in the session, then dipped to a low of 23,855 yuan/mt during the session, and finally closed higher at 23,905 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt or 0.02%.

Gold, long considered a reliable hedge against market volatility, has lost its luster as a safe-haven asset and now acts as a "high-beta asset" that actually amplifies market selloffs, according to economist Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution.

The gold price reached a four-week high on Wednesday morning before giving up those gains and falling back to a level just above $4,800.