After pushing to fresh highs in early May, Chinese Nickel Pig Iron prices have begun retreating as every pillar that supported the late-April surge — refined nickel, stainless margins, and scrap economics — starts to weaken simultaneously.

Recent Performance of Key Iron Ore Price Spreads Since 2024, large-scale iron ore projects in and outside China have been continuously commissioned, leading to a notable increase in iron ore supply. However, the sharp decline in downstream steel demand caused the iron ore supply-demand gap to widen continuously. The iron ore supply-demand pattern shifted from tight to loose, which also led to a year-on-year decline in average iron ore prices. Nevertheless, influenced by multiple factors such as iron ore supply and demand, port inventory, and steel mill profits, the frequency of price spread fluctuations among iron ore varieties increased. SMM reviewed the recent trends of key price spreads, as detailed below: ◼ Internal Differentiation Among Medium-Grade Resources, with Price Spreads Widening Significantly Affected by long-term contract negotiations, the trade liquidity of mainstream medium-grade ore deteriorated significantly. The lack of trade liquidity in certain varieties was directly transmitted to variety price spreads, with price spread fluctuations of mainstream medium-grade ore such as MNPJ intensifying notably. Among them, the price spread between PB fines and Jimblebar fines was the most sensitive: In early September 2025, the price spread between the two was 20 yuan/mt. As news of the ban on Jimblebar fines port cargo pick-up was released, its spot price came under pressure and dropped sharply, with the price spread quickly widening to around 50 yuan/mt. In addition, affected by the reduction in tradable varieties of mainstream Australian medium-grade ore, the variety price spreads between PB fines and Newman fines, as well as MAC fines, also showed a notable narrowing trend. Source: SMM ◼ High-Grade Premium Highlighted, Price Difference Between High and Medium-Grade Ore Widening Rapidly From Q4 2025 to date, price spread fluctuations among high, medium, and low-grade ore were equally intense. After entering 2026, structural contradictions in the iron ore market became further pronounced. Affected by declining raw ore quality from northern Brazilian mining areas, IOCJ fines supply experienced a trend of contraction. Coupled with the cost-effectiveness recovery brought by earlier price weakness and the release of concentrated restocking demand from steel mills ahead of Chinese New Year, IOCJ fines prices received strong support. Meanwhile, mainstream medium-grade ore remained tight in available resources due to trade flow disruptions. Against the backdrop of a shift between high and low-grade resources, the price difference between high and medium-grade ore widened again. Reviewing the period from November 2025 to March 2026, north China entered the heating season, and environmental protection-driven production restrictions became more frequent. As Chinese New Year and the Two Sessions approached, production restrictions were further tightened, with blast furnaces at steel mills in multiple areas of Hebei shut down, leading to a notable decline in hot metal production. Notably, during this period, steel mill profits remained generally stable, and some enterprises, in pursuit of higher output, tended to increase the blast furnace blending ratio of high and medium-grade ore while correspondingly reducing procurement of low-grade ore. Driven by this structural demand shift, the price difference between medium and low-grade ore widened. Source: SMM ◼ Lump-Fines Price Spread Experienced a "V"-Shaped Trend, Declining First Then Rising Since sintering processes generate relatively high pollution emissions, environmental protection-driven production restrictions typically prioritized restricting sintering and shaft furnace production. In north China and north-east China, during heating seasons or major events, if production restriction periods are prolonged, steel mills often increase the proportion of lump ore in their mix to alleviate tight supply of sinter and pellet, thereby driving lump ore prices to rise rapidly. However, over the past three years, the impact of seasonal factors on lump ore demand has gradually weakened, mainly for three reasons: first, steel mills have successively completed ultra-low emission retrofits for flue gas, reducing overall pollution intensity; second, sintering machines in Hebei and other regions have surplus capacity, and environmental protection-driven production restrictions have mostly been limited to within one week, significantly reducing the actual impact on production; third, steel mill profits have been under pressure, reducing the pursuit of hot metal production, and the proportion of high-grade ore usage has adjusted downward accordingly. Under the combined influence of the above factors, since H2 2024, lump ore premiums have continued to decline, hitting a new low by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, the price spread between PB lump and PB fines also narrowed significantly, contracting from 195 yuan/mt to 63 yuan/mt, a decline of over 50%. Against this backdrop, the cost-effectiveness of lump ore gradually became more prominent. Combined with the extended environmental protection-driven production restriction period in northern China in November 2025, the proportion of lump ore usage began to increase. However, as lump ore premiums had remained low for an extended period, product returns were poor, and major mines correspondingly reduced lump ore production. Driven by both supply contraction and demand growth, lump ore premiums rebounded, and the lump-fines price spread widened accordingly. As of mid-March 2026, lump ore premiums have risen to a periodic high, up nearly 280% from early January. The lump-fines price spread has also gradually widened to above 100 yuan/mt. Source: SMM Key Driving Logic of Product Price Spreads Mix Adjustment Led by Steel Mill Profits (Core Driver) ◼ 1 Profit Expansion Phase: High Hot Metal Production Drives Demand for High-Grade Ore When steel mill profits widened and per-mt crude steel returns were higher, steel mills pursued pig iron production and tended to raise the grade of furnace feed. When selecting iron ore, they preferred to purchase high-grade or medium-grade ore. As shown, in H1 2025, profits of common billet at China's steel mills rebounded notably. Common billet profits reached a peak of nearly 350 yuan/mt. At this point, to boost production, steel mills moderately increased the proportion of high-grade IOCJ fines, as well as high-grade lump and pellet usage. Demand growth over a certain period stimulated high-grade ore price increases, and it was clearly evident that the price spread between high-grade and medium-grade ore began to widen. Source: SMM ◼ 2 Profit Contraction Phase: Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement Boost Low-Grade Ore Procurement After steel mill profits contracted, to reduce costs and improve efficiency, steel mills significantly increased their focus on cost-effectiveness across iron ore products, tending to prioritize products with higher cost-effectiveness. Within the mid-grade ore range, steel mills preferred varieties with a larger price spread relative to PB fines. Meanwhile, weakening profits meant that higher pig iron or crude steel production led to greater loss pressure. Therefore, steel mills controlled pig iron production rationally from the perspective of economic efficiency. However, given the high comprehensive costs of shutting down or reducing blast furnace loads, steel mills tended to maintain normal blast furnace operations while lowering furnace charge grade and increasing the use of low-grade ore. Under these circumstances, assuming other conditions remained unchanged, the price spread between mid- and low-grade ore tended to narrow. Taking the market around October 2025 as an example, billet profits continued to decline, and the mid-to-low-grade ore price spread narrowed accordingly. Data source: SMM Dual Transmission Paths of Seasonal Effects ◼ Seasonal factors influenced iron ore variety demand through dual paths of "end-use demand fluctuations" and "heating season environmental protection-driven production restrictions" ◼ 1. Seasonal fluctuations in end-use demand: impact on steel mill production and raw material procurement pace The shift between off-season and peak season in end-use demand created cyclical impacts on iron ore variety demand. Off-seasons were mainly concentrated in summer (June–August) and winter (November–February): high temperatures and heavy rainfall in summer suppressed construction, while hydropower replacing thermal power in south China lowered electric furnace production costs and squeezed blast furnace hot metal production; in winter, construction sites in north China shut down and steel demand contracted. During off-seasons, steel mills increased blast furnace maintenance and lowered furnace charge grade to control production, with demand for high-grade iron ore weakening accordingly. During peak seasons (spring March–May, autumn September–October), downstream construction activity was released intensively, steel mills actively ramped up production, and furnace charge grade rose in tandem, strengthening demand for high-grade fines, lump ore, and pellet, supporting their premium performance. In summary, seasonal fluctuations in end-use demand drove cyclical changes in iron ore variety demand by influencing steel mill production and furnace charge grade selection. Transmission logic: end-use demand fluctuations → steel mill production adjustments → changes in total iron ore procurement volume → corresponding shifts in variety demand structure Data source: SMM Data source: SMM ◼ 2. Environmental protection-driven production restrictions during the northern heating season: direct disruption to furnace charge structure and variety premiums Heating season environmental protection-driven production restrictions primarily targeted steel mills in north China, spanning November to April of the following year . During this period, if air quality failed to meet standards, local environmental protection authorities would initiate production restriction measures, prioritizing restrictions on sintering machines and shaft furnaces, leading to tighter supply of sinter and pellet. To maintain blast furnace operations, steel mills were forced to increase the proportion of lump ore in their charge mix, driving a seasonal strengthening of lump ore demand, which in turn supported lump ore premiums and a rise in the lump-fines price spread. Transmission logic: environmental protection policy → sinter machine production restrictions → forced adjustment of furnace charge structure → stronger demand for lump ore and pellet ore → premium fluctuations Data source: SMM Coke prices affected the iron ore product mix through dual channels of fuel costs and profit margins ◼ 1 High coke prices suppressed lump ore demand As raw material directly charged into furnaces, lump ore consumed more coke than sinter and pellet ore, so steel mills typically controlled the lump ore charging ratio at around 10%. During periods when coke prices fluctuated at highs, steel mills tended to reduce lump ore proportions to control fuel costs. Before H1 2024, coke prices fluctuated at highs, and the lump ore usage ratio continued to decline, falling to a low of 9.8%. However, as coke prices underwent nearly a year of decline and entered a low range, combined with relatively low lump ore premiums and the push from environmental protection-driven production restriction policies, the lump ore charging ratio gradually rebounded, once exceeding 11%. Data source: SMM ◼ 2 Demand for high-silicon fines suppressed The higher the silicon content in iron ore, the greater the blast furnace slag volume and the higher the coke ratio. Therefore, low-silicon smelting is a key direction for blast furnace process optimization and a critical lever for cost reduction and efficiency improvement. Among current iron ore products on the market, mainstream mid-grade ore Si content mostly ranges from 4-6%. Brazilian high-silicon BRBF has relatively high Si content at 10-12%. Therefore, Australian ore is mostly used as the primary material, while Brazilian ore and non-mainstream ore serve as auxiliary materials. When coke prices were at highs, the cost disadvantage of high-silicon resources became prominent, and steel mills tended to reduce Brazilian high-silicon BRBF, Indian fines, and South African fines, shifting to mid-to-high-grade fines with lower silicon content (such as PB fines and IOCJ fines). Going forward, the iron ore oversupply pattern will become more prominent, while under overcapacity pressure in China's steel sector, steel mill profits will remain poor. Therefore, cost reduction and efficiency improvement will be a long-term direction, driving stronger demand for low-silicon, low-aluminum products. Consequently, mainstream mid-grade ore will remain the product with the best market circulation. Data source: SMM ◼ 3 Rising share of mid-to-low-grade fines under low profits High coke and ore prices squeezed steel mill profits, and steel mills no longer pursued hot metal production maximization, instead increasing mid-to-low-grade fines usage and lowering charging grade to control costs. Based on historical data, such situations occurred in Q3 2024 and Q2 2025. Auxiliary Variables: Inventory, Substitution, and Preferences ◼ 1 Product substitution effect: mid-grade inter-substitution and "high-low blending" substitution In the product mix of steel mill sinter, "high-low blending" and "mid-grade blending" are commonly mentioned concepts, with the core principle being to select the optimal products based on the cost-effectiveness of different iron ore varieties. Under normal circumstances, steel mills use MNPJ (i.e., mainstream medium-grade ore types such as Mac fines, Newman fines, PB fines, and Jimblebar fines) as primary materials, or adopt a high-low grade combination of " IOCJ fines + super special fines " as primary materials, and adjust auxiliary material ratios based on the acidity and alkalinity of the primary materials. Using mainstream medium-grade ore types as primary materials is the more common practice. When mainstream medium-grade ore types are periodically less cost-effective — for example, when the combined cost of "IOCJ fines + super special fines" is lower than that of medium-grade PB fines — some steel mills periodically switch to high-low grade combinations as primary materials to reduce costs. As shown in the chart, during March to April of 2024 and 2025, the cost-effectiveness advantage of high-low grade combinations was significantly superior to that of medium-grade ore, and therefore some steel mills in regions such as Hebei and Shanxi predominantly chose high-low grade combinations as primary materials during these periods. Data source: SMM ◼ 2. Inventory Structure Drives Price Spreads among Varieties: Inventory Changes and Price Transmission Logic Inventory is the most intuitive reflection of short-term supply-demand imbalances in the iron ore market. When supply is loose or demand weakens, port inventory continues to rise, and inventory levels generally exhibit a negative correlation with prices. Once inventory accumulates to a certain level, it tends to exert significant downward pressure on prices. Over the past two years, the inventory and price trends of Ukrainian concentrate (hereinafter "Ukrainian concentrate") have well validated this pattern. In November 2023, Ukrainian concentrate shipments gradually resumed, but as steel mills still had concerns about the stability of its supply, actual usage did not increase significantly, leading to continued port inventory accumulation. By May 2024, SMM ten-port inventory data by variety showed that Ukrainian concentrate inventory exceeded 3 million mt , exerting significant downward pressure on prices, with Ukrainian concentrate prices falling from 1,200 yuan/mt at the beginning of the year to 900 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, the price spread between Ukrainian concentrate and PB fines also narrowed from 160 yuan/mt to 80 yuan/mt, and its cost-effectiveness advantage gradually emerged, driving a notable increase in steel mill demand. Entering early 2026, affected by a decline in Ukrainian concentrate supply, port inventory retreated from highs to around 1.1 million mt, and tightening supply supported a notable rebound in Ukrainian concentrate prices, with the price spread versus PB fines also widening from 80 yuan/mt to around 100 yuan/mt . Data source: SMM Variety Cost-Effectiveness Assessment Model and Selection Strategy ◼ 1. Horizontal Comparison: Micro-Indicator Assessment among Same-Grade Varieties. In recent years, global mainstream iron ore supply entered a resource transition period, with notable structural adjustment characteristics. On one hand, some aging mines faced resource depletion , with declining mining grades; on the other hand, new mines were still in the capacity ramp-up stage , and the transition between old and new resources still required time. As a result, quality indicators of multiple mainstream varieties were broadly downgraded. Among them, medium-grade ore indicators represented by PB fines and Newman fines weakened; due to declining raw ore quality in Brazil's northern system, not only did IOCJ fines production contract, but the proportion of high-silicon special IOCJ fines output also rose, with silicon content increase being particularly notable beyond the decline in iron grade. Against this backdrop, steel mills tended to assess the most cost-effective varieties by calculating comprehensive price spreads. From the perspective of minor indicator adjustment values, the smaller the adjusted price spread relative to the MMI 61% index, the better the variety met steel mill demand. Based on Q1 averages, Jimblebar fines offered the best cost-effectiveness, followed by PB fines, Mac fines, Newman fines, and BRBR. However, since Jimblebar fines could not be traded or delivered, PB fines remained the optimal choice among medium-grade ores. Data source: SMM ◼ 2. Vertical Comparison: Historical Percentile Timing of High, Medium, and Low-Grade Price Spreads Beyond the horizontal comparison of price spreads among varieties of similar grades, vertically examining price spread changes among high, medium, and low-grade ores was equally important. By analyzing historical percentiles of the price difference between high and medium-grade ore and the price difference between medium and low-grade ore, the relative valuation of each grade could be assessed to guide variety switching and timing. Price difference between high and medium-grade ore: when at historical highs, the high-grade premium was excessive, and switching to medium-grade was advisable under profit pressure; when at historical lows, high-grade cost-effectiveness stood out, and moderate allocation increases were appropriate. Beyond premiums, using IOCJ fines and PB fines as benchmarks and calculating based on their indicator costs, the neutral value of the price spread between the two was 100 yuan/mt. When the spread exceeded 100 yuan/mt, PB fines offered better cost-effectiveness; when below 100 yuan/mt, IOCJ fines were more cost-effective. Price difference between medium and low-grade ore: when at historical highs, low-grade advantages were evident, suitable for cost reduction during thin-margin periods; when at historical lows, medium-grade cost-effectiveness improved, allowing flexible adjustments. Using PB fines and SSF as benchmarks and calculating based on their indicator costs, the price spread between the two ranged from 100-120 yuan/mt, with a midpoint of 110 as the neutral value. When the spread exceeded 110 yuan/mt, super special fines offered better cost-effectiveness; when below 110 yuan/mt, PB fines were more cost-effective. Combining the historical percentiles of both, allocation windows for each grade could be captured based on profit cycles to achieve cost optimization. Data source: SMM ◼ 3 Morphology Comparison: Arbitrage Logic of Fines-Lump Price Spread and Lump Ore Premium. Taking the price spread between PB lump and PB fines as an example, influenced by steel mill profits and coke prices, the fines-lump price spread exhibited notable fluctuations. Historical data showed the price spread between PB lump and PB fines ranged approximately 80–500 yuan/mt. In H1 2021, driven by high steel mill profits and supply-demand mismatch, the fines-lump price spread once approached the historical high of nearly 500 yuan/mt. In recent years, as steel mill profits narrowed, the price spread contracted significantly. In 2025, the fines-lump price spread operated within a range of 70–220 yuan/mt, with an annual average of approximately 128 yuan/mt. In early 2026, the lump ore premium fell to $0.04/dmt, and the price spread narrowed to 65 yuan/mt. Given that China's overcapacity landscape has not fundamentally changed, steel mill profits are expected to remain basically flat with 2025, and the fines-lump price spread is likely to maintain the current range. Based on this assessment: When the lump-fines price spread exceeds 120 yuan/mt, PB fines offer better value; When the lump-fines price spread falls below 120 yuan/mt, PB lump offers better value. Steel mills can choose accordingly based on their own conditions. Data source: SMM ◼ 4 Substitution Comparison: Cost-Effectiveness Competition between Lump Ore and Pellet Generally, when steel mill profits are favourable, steel mills consider increasing the usage ratio of lump ore and pellet. Typically, the combined usage share of lump ore and pellet ranges between 20%–30%. In actual ore blending decisions, steel mills' price spread analysis between lump ore and pellet falls into two categories: inland steel mills usually compare the price spread between domestic pellet and lump ore such as PB lump and Newman lump; while coastal port steel mills focus more on the price spread between imported pellet and corresponding lump ore. In recent years, with the increase in China's pellet capacity and the decline in imported pellet volumes, the weighting of price spread comparison between same-grade lump ore and domestic pellet has further increased. Historical data showed the price spread between 62% grade pellet in Qingdao and PB lump ore at Qingdao port ranged approximately 40–260 yuan/mt, with an annual average price spread of approximately 108 yuan/mt in 2025. Considering steel mills' actual cost accounting, the price spread equilibrium point between pellet and lump ore is generally set at 120 yuan/mt. When the pellet-lump price spread exceeds 120 yuan/mt, lump ore offers better value; When the pellet-lump price spread falls below 120 yuan/mt, pellet offers better value. Steel mills can choose accordingly based on their own raw material conditions, logistics structure, and production requirements. Data source: SMM Carbon Neutrality as a Two-Way Driver: Steel Industry Restructuring Shifts Iron Ore Demand ◼ The rapid advancement of industrialisation has significantly intensified the impact on the global climate, making the urgency of achieving carbon neutrality increasingly pressing. Particularly over the past five years, major economies represented by China and the EU have not only defined their respective emission reduction targets but also successively introduced legally binding regulations, marking a shift in global climate governance from consensus to action. Going forward, China's Ecological Environment Code and the EU's European Climate Law and "Fit for 55" package will become the two major institutional benchmarks for global climate governance. China's carbon market and the EU's CBAM, from the two dimensions of domestic carbon pricing and cross-border carbon adjustment respectively, form core policy tools for effectively controlling carbon emissions. Source: SMM ◼ Driven by both domestic and international legislation, the steel industry will undergo an evolution in emission reduction pathways: process transformation from long-process to short-process steelmaking; low-carbon transition driving non-blast furnace ironmaking development and carbon constraints driving furnace charge structure upgrades. These pathways will collectively reshape the demand structure of iron ore, manifested as strengthened preference for high-grade, low-impurity iron ore concentrates and premium mainstream ore types, while demand for traditional sintering fines tends to narrow. ◼ 1. Process restructuring: the shift from long-process to short-process steelmaking will drive increased demand for mainstream varieties and high-grade ore Under the global backdrop of "carbon neutrality" goals, the steel industry is regarded as one of the key areas for industrial emission reduction. The traditional long process (blast furnace-converter process), due to its reliance on coke and iron ore, is considered a major source of high carbon emissions and has become a key target for regulation and transformation. Many countries have begun shifting toward the more environmentally friendly short process (steel scrap-electric furnace process), but this transition has been relatively slow in China. On one hand, electric furnace steelmaking is largely limited to rebar production; on the other hand, steel scrap supply is constrained. Additionally, considering factors such as melting costs and losses in steel scrap smelting, pig iron costs should be higher than steel scrap prices by 100-150 yuan/mt for steel scrap to be more cost-effective; if the price spread is below this level, pig iron offers better value. In 2025, the price spread between hot metal costs and steel scrap fluctuated in a range of -100-210. Pig iron costs were mostly more favorable than steel scrap, so the share of blast furnace steelmaking in China stayed high. Source: SMM In China, apart from profitability, short-process electric furnaces are also constrained by high electricity prices, steel scrap price fluctuations, and cost disadvantages , resulting in slow capacity growth. Although the national carbon market is already operational, current carbon prices have not been effectively incorporated into trading, which is not enough to drive a large-scale shift from long-process to electric furnaces, and enterprises mostly adopt gradual adjustments . Source: SMM Based on current policy and market conditions, before China's steel industry is formally included in the national carbon market trading and during the early stage of the EU's CBAM policy implementation, the blast furnace-converter long process will remain the dominant mode of global steel production over the next five years. However, under the dual pressures of domestic steel capacity capping and rising carbon prices in the future, China's electric furnace short process is entering a historic development opportunity, with its share of steelmaking set to gradually increase. By 2030, the share of electric furnace steelmaking is expected to reach around 35%. In the long term, this trend will gradually suppress iron ore demand, causing it to weaken. Against the backdrop of oversupply, competition among iron ore varieties will intensify, and therefore high cost-effective varieties with low silicon and aluminum content will become the optimal choice for steel mills. Undoubtedly, mainstream medium and high-grade ore such as PB fines, Mac fines, Newman fines, IOCJ fines, BRBF, and Simandou fines all belong to relatively high-quality varieties. ◼ 2 Low-carbon transition driving non-blast furnace ironmaking development, demand for high-grade iron ore concentrates with Fe content above 65% expected to continue rising Currently, global DRI production accounts for only 10% of total global production. As low-carbon technologies such as hydrogen-based DRI accelerate in application, DRI production share is expected to rise to 13% by 2030. In comparison, China's non-blast furnace ironmaking share is even smaller, with mass production not yet achieved and only leading steel enterprises in the trial production stage. Under current carbon neutrality requirements, China's non-blast furnace ironmaking is facing significant development opportunities. According to incomplete statistics, announced non-blast furnace ironmaking capacity totaled approximately 18 million mt, of which only 2 million mt were under construction, with the remaining 16 million mt of projects still in early stages, carrying relatively high risk coefficients. Whether these projects materialize depends on multiple factors including funding, market conditions, decarbonization policies, and government support, resulting in significant uncertainty regarding future commissioning time. Future projects will primarily be gas-based; current major DRI equipment uses coke oven gas (COG), but in the medium and long-term will gradually shift to green hydrogen. Data source: World Steel Association Data source: SMM Currently, the core requirements for DRI raw materials are "high grade, low impurities," with Fe grade ≥66% and SiO2+Al2O3 ≤3.5%. China's concentrates generally have relatively high silicon content, with some exceeding 10%. Therefore, only a few low-silicon concentrates can be used to produce direct reduced pellet feed. Ex-China high-grade concentrates offer a wider range of options. Data source: SMM As DRI production grows, demand for high-quality iron units is also increasing, leading to a structural rise in the share of high-grade iron ore and pure iron raw materials. As shown in the chart, varieties within the red box all have Fe content above 66%, with Si+Al content around 3.5%; these include some high-grade iron ore concentrates from China, Brazilian pellet feed concentrates, Peruvian concentrates, and emerging Simandou fines, all of which can serve as DRI raw materials. Data source: SMM ◼ 3. Carbon constraints drive furnace charge structure upgrades, with pellet replacing sinter becoming key to carbon reduction, and pellet-making concentrates with grades above 62% set to see significant growth. As China's steel industry pursues structural adjustment, optimization, and green, low-carbon, high-quality development, pellet ore as a premium raw material for blast furnaces has been increasingly favoured by the industry, driving the rapid development of the pellet sector. The energy consumption of the pellet production process is approximately 50% of that of the sinter production process. According to CISA's 2025 statistics, the average energy consumption of the sintering process among its member units was 48.5 kg/mt, while the average energy consumption of the pellet process was 25.23 kg/mt, indicating lower energy consumption in pellet production. Due to the different heat supply methods in pellet roasting compared to sintering, SO2, NOX, and CO2 emissions after combustion are much lower than those from the sintering process. In addition, pellet ore generates much less dust than sinter, making the pellet process more environmentally friendly. The emission comparison between the sintering process and the pellet process is shown in the chart below: Data source: SMM ◼ A high proportion of pellet ore in furnace charge is the direction and demand of current blast furnace charge structure development Compared with other countries in the world, China's blast furnace charge structure is dominated by sinter with a low pellet ratio , while blast furnaces in North America and Europe primarily use high proportions of pellets, with some blast furnaces reaching 100%. For example: SSAB's blast furnace in Sweden had a pellet ratio of 97.2%, Dofasco in Canada achieved 100% all-pellet smelting, and USS No. 14 blast furnace had a pellet ratio of 80%, etc. According to CISA's 2025 statistics, the average fuel ratio per unit of ironmaking at China's key steel enterprises was 523-525 kg/mt, approximately 70 kg higher than the average fuel ratio of European and American blast furnaces. The reason is that China's blast furnace charge is dominated by sinter, with sinter iron grade at around 54-57%, while pellet ore iron grade is above 62%. High sinter usage leads to high slag volume and high energy consumption in blast furnaces. Therefore, against the backdrop of carbon reduction, increasing the proportion of pellet ore usage is imperative. Data source: SMM ◼ Currently, there are three main types of pellet production equipment in China: shaft furnaces, chain grate-rotary kilns, and travelling grates . In recent years, pellet equipment with a single-unit capacity below 1.2 million mt/year (excluding ferroalloy and foundry pig iron pellets) has been classified as a restricted category; therefore, capacity replacement of pellet equipment continues, with new pellet projects predominantly using travelling grates, with single production line capacity mostly at 5 million mt. As a result, current pellet production is mainly based on rotary kilns and travelling grates. These two types of equipment have less stringent raw material requirements compared to shaft furnaces, allowing the blending of multiple ore types such as magnetite, hematite, and limonite. However, it must be concentrate, with a particle size requirement generally of -200 mesh, 70% or above. Commonly used varieties include: domestic concentrate, Ukrainian concentrate, Brazilian concentrate, Middle Eastern concentrate, Chilean concentrate, Australian concentrate, Sierra Leonean concentrate, etc. As the proportion of pellet usage increases in the future, demand for concentrate with grades of 62% and above will continue to expand. ◼ Overall, before 2030, as carbon neutrality policies and Europe's CBAM are still in the early stages of implementation, carbon emission costs have not yet become significantly prominent. Meanwhile, China's steel production is trending downward, while iron ore supply is accelerating, steel mill profits are under pressure, and cost reduction and efficiency improvement remain the industry's mainstream strategy. Therefore, procurement will continue to focus on low- and medium-grade iron ore, demand for non-mainstream ore varieties will remain robust, the price spread among high-, medium-, and low-grade ore will be difficult to widen, and premiums for lump ore and pellets will also stay at current low levels. ◼ After 2030, market requirements for green steel will gradually increase, the share of electric furnace steelmaking and non-blast furnace steelmaking will rise, and overall iron ore demand will decline notably. Although blast furnace capacity will decrease, operating rates may improve, driving down sinter demand while pellet demand increases significantly. This shift will lead to a sharp decline in fines demand and an expansion of market share for mainstream medium-grade ore; meanwhile, demand for high-quality concentrate will rise, pushing the price difference between high and medium-grade ore wider, and pellet premiums will also continue to climb. Additionally, although lump ore demand has some growth potential, the increase will be limited under carbon emission constraints, and lump ore premium elasticity will diminish accordingly.

“Gold’s status as a haven may now be tarnished in the eyes of some as the precious metal is falling in price even as war roils the Middle East and financial markets alike, and some may even be tempted to say that the third major bull run in the commodity since 1971 is now over,” says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

According to the European Central Bank (ECB), driven by record-breaking purchases and soaring gold prices, gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset held by global central banks. A report released by the ECB on Wednesday showed that gold accounted for 20% of global official reserves in 2024, surpassing the euro's 16% and trailing only the US dollar's 46%. "Central banks worldwide continued to accumulate gold at a record pace," the ECB stated in the report. It is understood that global central banks purchased over 1,000 mt of gold for the third consecutive year in 2024, accounting for one-fifth of the world's annual production and doubling the average annual purchases of the 2010s. Global central banks' gold reserves are approaching the historical highs seen during the post-World War II Bretton Woods system era. Prior to 1971, global exchange rates were pegged to the US dollar, which in turn was convertible into gold at a fixed rate. According to the latest data from the ECB, global central banks' gold reserves peaked at 38,000 mt in the mid-1960s and have now climbed back to 36,000 mt in 2024. "Global central banks currently hold almost the same amount of gold as they did in 1965," the report stated. According to data from the World Gold Council, major gold buyers last year included China, India, Turkey, and Poland. Gold prices rose by 30% last year, one of the reasons for the surge in gold's share of global foreign exchange reserves. So far this year, gold prices have risen by a further 27%, hitting a record high of $3,500 per ounce. "This volume of reserves, combined with high prices, has made gold the world's second-largest reserve asset by market value in 2024, trailing only the US dollar," the ECB said. Although gold does not generate interest and has high storage costs, it is regarded by global investors as the ultimate safe-haven asset, highly liquid, free from counterparty risk, and less susceptible to sanctions. In recent years, due to concerns over geopolitical instability and US debt levels, global central banks have begun to reduce their reliance on the US dollar. The trend of de-dollarization has accelerated further since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, catalyzed by the US-led Western countries cutting off Russia's access to global financial markets. Following the full-scale escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the West froze approximately $280 billion of the Russian central bank's overseas assets. The ECB pointed out that central banks' gold purchases appear to be seen as a hedge against sanctions, such as the freezing of financial assets. In the past, gold typically became cheaper when the real yield on other assets rose, but this long-standing correlation has been broken since early 2022. Investors now view gold more as a tool to hedge against political risks rather than merely as a tool to combat inflation.

When US President Trump announced a series of new tariffs in April, triggering market turmoil, retail investors across Asia rushed into the US stock market to buy the dip. However, there are now signs that they are withdrawing rapidly... Official data shows that South Korean retail investors made their first net sales of US stocks in May, offloading a total of over $1 billion worth of US equities, the first such occurrence since Trump's election victory last year; Meanwhile, Japanese retail investors also became net sellers of US exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Data from the Tokyo Stock Exchange shows that Japanese retail investors sold off approximately $166 million worth of US ETFs that month, the largest reduction since April 2023. In addition, according to data from a local brokerage, the volume of US stocks purchased by Singaporean traders in May decreased by a quarter MoM. Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers, said, "They (Asian retail investors) were very aggressive when the market was low, but now the buying momentum has weakened." This withdrawal suggests that even some of the world's most astute and risk-tolerant individual investors are now wavering in their enthusiasm to rush to buy amid continuous price rise in US stocks as they once again approach historical highs. When Trump's "Emancipation Day" tariffs stirred the market, Asian retail investors poured into the US stock market, buying stocks and ETFs even as Wall Street was shrouded in gloom. Their actions did indeed yield substantial returns: the S&P 500 Index had slipped 12% from April 2 to April 8, but has since rebounded over 20% from its lows. It can be said that the US stock market has largely ignored broader external anxieties about US assets over the past few weeks, while the "sell the US" trade has weighed heavily on the US dollar in recent months and triggered sharp fluctuations in the US bond market. The key still lies with Trump The slowdown in demand from Asian retail investors coincides with a weakening rebound in the S&P 500 Index. Although the index is currently less than 2.5% away from its historical high of 6,147.43 points set in February, the benchmark index has gained less than 1% over the past three weeks, a rare moment of calm after months of sharp fluctuations. Some industry insiders said, The fate of the US stock market in the coming days will largely still depend on Trump, whose unpredictable policy announcements—sometimes followed by abrupt reversals—are enough to shake the market "in a heartbeat." A 25-year-old investor from Singapore said he had previously bought a "significant" amount of ETFs tracking growth stocks and US indices. As these investments quickly yielded returns, he later reduced his holdings. "Now that the market has returned to its original position, I won't be putting more money into the market than usual," Goh noted. "But if Trump says or does anything that will once again weigh on the market, I'll buy more." Of course, some Asian retail investors remain bullish on the US market. Over the past decade, the US stock market has become a safe and relatively reliable money-spinner for many Asian investors. Against the backdrop of soaring large-cap tech stocks, the US stock market has outperformed stock indices in the Asia-Pacific region. For some Asian investors, the idea of "investing money in the US market" may be difficult to shake off for the time being. Nam Yong Soo, head of the ETF management department at a South Korean investment management company, said that most investors in South Korea have a strong belief in US stocks.

On May 29, Xiaoju Charging, DiDi's charging service platform, signed a strategic cooperation agreement with BYD to jointly develop an open and intelligent ultra-fast charging network.

The stock price of Xingye Yinxi Mining saw a significant increase on the first trading day after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. As of 9:59 a.m. on June 3, Xingye Yinxi Mining was up 4.16%, trading at 13.78 yuan per share. In an announcement on the evening of June 2, Xingye Yinxi Mining stated that Xiwuqimuqin Banner Budun Yingen Mining Co., Ltd. (Budun Yingen Mining) is a controlled subsidiary of Inner Mongolia Xingye Gold Smelting Group Co., Ltd., the controlling shareholder of Inner Mongolia Xingye Yinxi Mining Co., Ltd. On December 30, 2024, the company signed a "Trusteeship Agreement" with Xingye Group, under which Xingye Group entrusted Budun Yingen Mining to the company for operation and management. On May 30, 2025, Budun Yingen Mining received a "Reply on the Review and Filing of Mineral Resource Reserves for the Verification Report on Silver Mine Resource Reserves in the Budunwula Mining Area, Xiwuqimuqin Banner, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region" (Xi Ziran Zi Chu Bei Zi (2025) No. 006) from the Xilingol League Natural Resources Bureau. After review, the relevant materials for the review and filing of mineral resource reserves of Budun Yingen Mining were found to comply with relevant regulations and were approved for review and filing. The specific situation is as follows: According to the "Review Opinion on the Verification Report on Silver Mine Resource Reserves in the Budunwula Mining Area, Xiwuqimuqin Banner, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region" (Xi Ziran Zi Chu Ping Zi (2025) No. 006), through this verification of resource reserves, as of January 31, 2025, the cumulative identified ore quantity of silver mine resources was 70.325 million mt, with a metal content of 11,114 mt and an average grade of Ag 158.07 g/t. This includes: measured resources with an ore quantity of 14.243 million mt, a metal content of 3,546 mt, and an average grade of Ag 248.95 g/t; indicated resources with an ore quantity of 22.512 million mt, a metal content of 3,573 mt, and an average grade of Ag 158.74 g/t; and inferred resources with an ore quantity of 33.57 million mt, a metal content of 3,995 mt, and an average grade of Ag 119.05 g/t. Through this verification of resource reserves, as of January 31, 2025, the identified associated resources of Pb, Zn, Ga, and Cd were as follows: Pb ore quantity of 39.571 million mt with a metal content of 95,643 mt; Zn ore quantity of 59.565 million mt with a metal content of 180,818 mt; Ga ore quantity of 70.271 million mt with a metal content of 3,603 mt; and Cd ore quantity of 10.913 million mt with a metal content of 1,092 mt. The average grades of these associated metals were Pb 0.24%, Zn 0.30%, Ga 0.0051%, and Cd 0.0100%, respectively. Regarding the increase in reserves after this review and filing, the announcement from Xingye Yinxi Mining indicates that the most recent report for Budun Yingen Mining was the "Verification Report on Silver Mine Resource Reserves in the Budunwula Mining Area, Xiwuqimuqin Banner, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region" compiled in March 2024. Upon comparison, this resource reserve verification indicates an increase of 65.316 million mt in ore volume and 10,273.1 mt in silver metal content compared to the most recent previous report on silver mine resources. For associated elements: Pb ore volume increased by 34.998 million mt, with a metal content increase of 84,142 mt; Zn ore volume increased by 55.033 million mt, with a metal content increase of 158,441 mt; Cd ore volume increased by 6.008 million mt, with a metal content increase of 601 mt; Ga ore volume increased by 65.422 million mt, with a metal content increase of 3,381 mt. Xingye Silver & Tin disclosed its Q1 2025 report on April 28, showing that in Q1, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 1.149 billion yuan, up 50.37% YoY; and a net profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders of 374 million yuan, up 63.22% YoY. Xingye Silver & Tin's Q1 report indicates that the current period's operating revenue increased by 50.37% compared to the previous period, operating costs increased by 51.55%, taxes and surcharges increased by 59.56%. The main reasons are the increase in production and sales volume of the company's main mineral products and the YoY increase in product selling prices during the reporting period. The current period's operating profit increased by 61.99% compared to the previous period, total profit increased by 63.25%, income tax expenses increased by 65.49%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders increased by 63.22%. The main reasons are the increase in production and sales volume of the company's main mineral products, the YoY increase in product selling prices, and the increase in operating revenue during the reporting period. Other important matters announced by Xingye Silver & Tin in its Q1 report include: 1. The company's acquisition of 85% equity in Yubang Mining : The company acquired 85% equity in Chifeng Yubang Mining Co., Ltd., held by Guocheng Mining Co., Ltd., Li Zhenshui, and Li Ruiyang, for a total of 2.388 billion yuan using its own funds and self-raised funds. On January 6, 2025, the company held its first extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2025, which approved this transaction. On January 14, 2025, the equity transfer was completed with the industrial and commercial change registration procedures at the market supervision and administration department. Since then, the company has held 85% equity in Yubang Mining, which has become a controlled subsidiary of the company and is included in the company's consolidated financial statements. 2. Approval obtained for the 2.97 million mt expansion project of the subsidiary Yinman Mining : In January 2025, Yinman Mining, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, obtained the "Approval from the Development and Reform Commission of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region on the Expansion Project of the 2.97 Million mt/Year Copper-Lead-Tin-Silver-Zinc Mine in the Baiyinchagan Dongshan Mining Area of Xiwuqi Yinman Mining Co., Ltd." (Nei Fa Gai Chan Ye Fa Zi (2025) No. 24) issued by the Development and Reform Commission of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region to the Development and Reform Commission of the Xilingol League. Yinman Mining is implementing an expansion project for zinc, lead, silver, copper, and tin ore in the mining area (mining license number: C1500002015013210136961). The project's construction scale will be expanded from 1.65 million mt/year to 2.97 million mt/year, with underground mining as the extraction method. The project is classified as a renovation and expansion project. The company will actively promote the construction of the 2.97 million mt/year expansion project at Yinman Mining. Prior to the project's commencement, the company will handle the relevant procedures for land use, environmental protection, energy conservation review, work safety, water and soil conservation, etc., in accordance with relevant laws and administrative regulations, to ensure that the project commences with all necessary permits as planned. After the project is completed and put into operation, the mining and beneficiation capacity of Yinman Mining will increase from 1.65 million mt/year to 2.97 million mt/year, further enhancing the company's profitability and market competitiveness. 3. Safety incident at subsidiary Yinman Mining: At 16:18 on March 9, 2025, a safety incident occurred during development work at the Yinman Mining project department of Henan Jinyuan Construction Co., Ltd., the mining contractor of Yinman Mining, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company. The incident resulted in one fatality and no injuries. Following the incident, mining operations at Yinman Mining were suspended on March 9, while the beneficiation plant continued normal operations. Currently, Yinman Mining has completed the relevant rectification work in accordance with the regulatory authorities' requirements, and mining operations resumed on April 16, 2025. This incident did not have a significant impact on the company's production and operations, nor did it have a material adverse impact on the company's 2025 performance. In addition, the 2024 annual report released by Xingye Yinxi shows that in 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 4,270.3872 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.22%; total profit was 1,765.2261 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.69%; and net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm was 1,529.8586 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.82%. Introduction to Xingye Yinxi: In 2024, the proportion of operating revenue from the company's main business of various mineral products in the company's total operating revenue was as follows: tin ore contributed 1,415.3906 million yuan, accounting for 33.14%; silver ore contributed 1,165.409 million yuan, accounting for 27.29%; zinc ore contributed 981.0361 million yuan, accounting for 22.97%; iron ore contributed 234.7111 million yuan, accounting for 5.50%; lead ore contributed 230.3635 million yuan, accounting for 5.39%; copper ore contributed 129.711 million yuan, accounting for 3.04%; antimony ore contributed 62.8116 million yuan, accounting for 1.47%; and gold ore contributed 13.7186 million yuan, accounting for 0.32%. Among these, the combined operating revenue from tin ore and silver ore accounted for 60.43%. In its annual report, Xingye Yinxi introduced: During the reporting period, the company's main products included non-ferrous metals and precious metals such as silver, tin, zinc, lead, iron, copper, antimony, and gold. Xingye Silver & Tin stated: In 2024, the company made solid progress in various tasks and successfully completed all annual production and operation objectives. Relying on its high-quality operating mines, the company achieved dual growth in production and profitability , with the effectiveness of its strategic layout becoming evident. Xingye Silver & Tin stated: In 2024, the company produced 8,901.85 mt of mineral tin, up 14.58% YoY; 228.93 mt of mineral silver, up 14.68% YoY; 59,740.98 mt of mineral zinc, up 8.67% YoY; 16,958.57 mt of mineral lead, up 8.05% YoY; 2,906.43 mt of mineral copper, up 4.94% YoY; 1,351.70 mt of mineral antimony, up 32.58% YoY; and 339,100 mt of mineral iron, down 3.74% YoY. From 2022 to 2024, the production of the company's main products (excluding bismuth, iron, and gold) increased year by year. Xingye Silver & Tin introduced: As of the end of 2024 (including Yubang Mining), the company's proven reserves of various metals within the scope of mining licenses for each mine are as follows: A research report on Xingye Silver & Tin published by Guosen Securities on May 16 pointed out: In recent years, the company's production of major minerals has steadily increased. In 2024, the prices and volumes of silver and tin both rose, leading to a significant year-on-year increase in the company's profits. The acquisition of an 85% stake in Yubang Mining has further elevated the company's silver reserves. Considering the company's reliance on the resource-rich location advantage in Inner Mongolia and its proactive approach to reserving high-quality mineral resources through external mergers and acquisitions while pursuing endogenous development, Guosen Securities maintains an "Outperform" rating. Risk warnings: Risks of the company's resource development progress falling short of expectations; risks of volatile metal prices. A research report on Xingye Silver & Tin by Huaxin Securities showed: In 2024, the prices and volumes of mineral tin and silver both rose. The expansion of the Yinman Mine and the external acquisition of Yubang Mining indicate promising long-term growth. First overseas takeover bid for tin mine, marking the company's initial foray into going global: On May 6, 2025, the company announced that it had signed the "Offer Implementation Agreement" with Atlantic Tin Limited on April 30, 2025. The company intends to designate its wholly-owned subsidiary, Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) Mining Co., Ltd., to make an off-market conditional takeover offer to shareholders holding all the issued shares of the target company at a price of AUD 0.24 per share through an off-market takeover bid. Atlantic Tin is an unlisted public company founded in 2005 and headquartered in Perth, Australia. The target company's main business activity is the development of the Achmmach tin mine project in Morocco. As of August 12, 2024, the Achmmach tin mine had proven ore reserves of 39.1 million mt, with an average tin grade of 0.55% and a tin metal content of 213,300 mt. Since 2025, silver and tin prices have maintained a high trend, and the company has completed two mergers and acquisitions. The long-term capacity growth is expected, and we maintain an "Overweight" investment rating. Risk warnings: 1) Downstream demand falls short of expectations; 2) Risk of metal price decline; 3) The release of the company's expanded capacity falls short of expectations; 4) The company's acquisition progress falls short of expectations, etc.

[SMM Analysis] It cannot be ignored that the shortage of copper concentrates has gradually been transmitted to copper cathode. In the first half of 2024, there were continuous reports of production cuts and even shutdowns at overseas smelters. This indicates that despite the launch of new smelting and refining projects in the second half of the year (H2), the global supply of copper cathode will not ease.

A survey released by the University of Michigan on Friday showed that US households' pessimism about the economic outlook worsened further under the impact of Trump's reckless trade policies. The data indicated that the preliminary reading of the US consumer confidence index for May was only 50.8, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline . The index's final reading for April was 52.2, and economists had previously expected the confidence index to rebound to 53.5 in May. The latest figure also represented the second-worst level on record . The US consumer confidence index hit a historic low of 50 in June 2022, when runaway inflation exacerbated fears of an economic recession. (Source: University of Michigan) As background, the University of Michigan has been tracking US consumers' confidence in the economy since 1952, experiencing 12 recessions, several wars, and multiple inflation cycles. It has been proven that the impact of a "Trump vs. the World" trade war surpasses all these factors. The survey also showed that US consumers' inflation expectations have moved in an unfavorable direction. The one-year inflation expectation surged further to 7.3% from 6.5% the previous month, reaching the highest level since 1981 , while the long-term inflation expectation also rose from 4.4% to 4.6%, hitting a new high since 1991. US Fed officials have repeatedly warned that anchoring inflation expectations near the 2% target level is a top priority for the central bank's policy operations. For US consumers, the economic uncertainty caused by trade conflicts is the core reason for their lack of confidence. Joanne Hsu, director of consumer surveys at the University of Michigan, said that three-quarters of consumers spontaneously mentioned tariffs in the survey, up from nearly 60% in April, with uncertainty about trade policies continuing to dominate consumers' views of the economy. It is worth noting that although most of the survey was conducted before the US-China talks in Geneva, even factoring in the tariff suspension, the actual US tariffs are still at their highest levels in decades. Economists generally believe that tariffs will lead to short-term price increases, but the longer-term economic impact remains difficult to predict clearly. The final reading of the May consumer confidence index will be released on May 30, and the market will closely watch whether the outcome of the Geneva talks will boost confidence. In her report on Friday, Hsu said that many survey indicators did improve as tariffs on goods imported from China declined, but these preliminary, modest rebounds were not enough to change the overall situation—consumers remained pessimistic about the economy. As a reflection of the impact of tariff policies on US consumers, US retail giant Walmart announced this Thursday that it had already started raising prices due to tariffs and would further increase prices in June and July when US families prepare for the back-to-school season. A survey released on Friday also showed that, unlike during the pandemic years in previous years, the prosperity of the US labour market is also impacting consumers' financial strength. (US consumers are increasingly worried about losing their jobs, source: University of Michigan) Hsu pointed out that consumers are very concerned about the weakening of the labour market, and an increasing number of people have said that their incomes have been affected, which undoubtedly exposes cracks in consumer resilience.

BYD, which has long been eyeing the small-capacity power battery market, has finally accelerated its pace. According to industry news, BYD will host a global launch event for electric two-wheeler and three-wheeler batteries at its Shenzhen headquarters on May 17, and has proposed the slogan "Lead-acid out, LFP in." On May 13, an informed source confirmed the date of the event to a reporter from Cailian Press, but did not disclose further details. Rumors about BYD's entry into the e-bike market have been circulating in the industry for a long time. As early as October 2020, FinDreams Battery, a battery brand under BYD, held the first off-line ceremony for Didi Qingju batteries in Shenzhen. At that time, He Long, Vice President of BYD Group and Chairman of FinDreams Battery, said, "The product line of FinDreams Battery's two-wheeler batteries will grow at a rate of dozens of times in the future." However, compared to power and ESS batteries for NEVs, BYD's expansion in the small-capacity power battery sector targeting the e-bike market has been relatively cautious. It was not until February 25, 2024, that FinDreams Battery announced on its official WeChat account, "After discussion, it has been decided that FinDreams Battery will apply the R&D achievements of passenger vehicles to the two-wheeler sector, increase R&D investment in two-wheelers, collaborate with all parties to develop safe batteries that can be used in high-rise buildings." The major fire incident involving e-bikes at that time, which was caused by the thermal runaway of lithium-ion batteries in e-bikes, prompted BYD to make this decision. "After the incident, a special rectification campaign for electric vehicles was launched nationwide, and relevant departments also communicated with BYD, hoping that BYD would shoulder corporate responsibility at a critical moment and participate in the safety upgrade of electric vehicle batteries," an industry insider revealed some of the reasons to the reporter. In addition to the support from relevant departments, the small-capacity lithium power battery market for e-bikes is also relatively a "blue ocean." Compared with lead-acid batteries, lithium batteries have advantages such as long life, light weight, environmental protection, and high energy density, which have sparked a wave of "replacing lead-acid with lithium" in the e-bike sector. However, according to the reporter's understanding, currently constrained by safety and cost considerations, mid-to-low-end brands such as Yadea and AIMA have temporarily suspended their transition to lithium batteries and instead returned to lead-acid batteries, which offer higher safety, lower cost, but slightly insufficient driving range. It is understood that currently, only high-end brands such as Niu and Ninebot are still using lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, but their selling prices are generally high. "Currently, the two major obstacles to the promotion of lithium batteries are cost and safety. BYD has advantages in both cost control and technological safety."Industry analysts believe that as more and more high-tech enterprises enter the e-bike industry, it will help the entire industry reduce costs and increase efficiency. In January 2024, LIMA EV launched the LIMA H5 third-generation long-range e-bike, equipped with a 46V, 120Ah BYD LFP blade battery, which is already on sale. After announcing its entry into the e-bike battery sector, BYD continued to "take orders". In October 2024, BYD and Jiangsu Zongshen Vehicle Industry announced the establishment of a lithium battery pack management advisory committee. Jiangsu Zongshen stated that the two parties will focus on innovative management, promote the integrated management planning and layout of lithium-ion products for vehicle-battery integration, and plan to form a feasible business model for lithium-ion products in 2025. In December of the same year, BYD signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Tailg Technology, with both parties announcing in-depth cooperation in the new energy two- and three-wheeler battery sector and jointly building a cloud-based big data platform for the "vehicle-battery-cloud safety system". Regarding whether BYD will directly participate in the production of e-bikes, the aforementioned industry analysts believe, "It's not impossible. Cars are large products involving tens of thousands of parts, but e-bikes have relatively fewer parts and their manufacturing processes are not overly complex." In their view, BYD's layout in the C-end e-bike market would face high store-opening costs. "If it can make breakthroughs in the B-end market, such as food delivery and express delivery, it would be a better choice."