Since the beginning of August, China’s solar cell market has staged a sharp reversal. TOPCon cell prices bottomed out in late July and rebounded rapidly. Compared with the lows seen from late July to early August, mainstream prices as of August 18 had risen by more than 20% across major formats, with gains in some specifications approaching 30%. The rally was initially supported by a rising cost floor. Since mid-August, however, the pace of price increases has clearly exceeded what can be explained by cost recovery alone. Following the rollout of the U.S. Section 232 measures, expectations for front-loaded procurement across supply chains serving the U.S. market have intensified. Traders have increasingly become marginal buyers of higher-priced cells, further amplifying gains in the spot market. In contrast, domestic module manufacturers remain reluctant to accept current high cell prices. This means that while the market is being supported by the policy window and export-related stockpiling, whether the rally can evolve from a short-term move into a more sustainable uptrend will ultimately depend on whether higher cell costs can be passed through to module prices and whether domestic demand can take over once the policy-driven export window begins to close. Current Market: Cost Recovery Sets the Floor, Export Stockpiling Amplifies the Rally The market began to reverse rapidly in August. According to SMM data, as of August 18, mainstream price ranges for TOPCon G12R, M10 and G12 cells had risen to RMB 0.316-0.367/W, RMB 0.316-0.367/W and RMB 0.319-0.352/W, respectively. Offers for some G12R and M10 cells briefly reached around RMB 0.38/W. Costs provided the initial foundation for the rebound. Since late July, stronger expectations for higher polysilicon prices, a rapid recovery in wafer prices, and rising costs for silver paste and other auxiliary materials have jointly lifted the cost floor for solar cells and strengthened producers’ willingness to hold firm on offers. However, cost movements can largely explain why prices were able to rebound from low levels; they do not fully explain the pace of gains since mid-August. The stronger driver behind the acceleration has been rapidly rising expectations for advance procurement following the rollout of the U.S. Section 232 measures. On August 6, the United States formally announced Section 232 measures covering polysilicon and its derivatives. The measures set minimum import prices of $0.22/W for solar cells and $0.38/W for solar modules. They will take effect at 12:01 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time on December 4, 2026, for covered products entered for consumption or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption. Certain polysilicon derivatives listed in the announcement will also be subject to additional ad valorem duties. The transition period between the announcement and implementation has prompted front-loaded procurement and inventory building across the Asian solar supply chain serving the U.S. market. Based on current transaction patterns, this incremental demand is becoming an increasingly important marginal driver in the spot market. According to feedback from supply-chain traders surveyed by SMM, the market could see around 15-20 GW of solar cell stockpiling demand during the policy window, with traders also emerging as key buyers of some higher-priced material. It is important to stress that the 15-20 GW figure remains an industry survey estimate and market expectation. It does not represent volumes that have already been contracted, prepaid, assigned shipping schedules or exported. Only if a substantial portion of this expected demand is ultimately converted into actual purchase orders will it materially affect near-term cell shipment flows and spot inventories. Module Makers: Domestic Demand May Take Over, but Acceptance of High Cell Prices Remains Limited Compared with traders, domestic module manufacturers remain cautious about purchasing high-priced cells. On the one hand, domestic project demand is expected to improve in Q4, which could support a sequential recovery in module production schedules and cell procurement. On the other hand, module producers remain constrained by end-market tender prices, project returns and their own inventory positions. At present, module makers generally view RMB 0.33-0.35/W as a more acceptable procurement range for solar cells. In terms of cost pass-through, solar cells have responded relatively quickly in the current round of price increases, but whether module prices can rise in tandem remains uncertain. If module selling prices fail to absorb the increase in cell costs, module producers are more likely to delay procurement, reduce safety inventories, prioritize internally produced cells or adjust production schedules rather than continue chasing higher-priced external supply. This is likely to lead to greater market segmentation. Cell producers with well-secured export orders may be able to maintain firmer offers, while standard domestic orders and more abundantly supplied formats may remain subject to pricing pressure from module makers. As a result, the current rally is more likely to remain structural rather than develop into a synchronized increase across all formats and all producers. Why Could Mid-October Become a Key Turning Point? It is worth noting that the Section 232 measures do not provide an unrestricted window for imports ahead of implementation. The U.S. presidential proclamation also states that if the Secretary of Commerce determines that a company has stockpiled polysilicon or its derivatives before the measures take effect, the department may coordinate with U.S. Customs and Border Protection to impose import restrictions. Advance procurement by traders therefore should not be viewed as risk-free front-loading. How U.S. authorities distinguish between normal inventory preparation and policy-avoidance stockpiling, as well as how strictly the provision is ultimately enforced, could also affect actual shipment flows. The Section 232 measures are scheduled to take effect on December 4, 2026. According to trader feedback, arranging shipments from China or other major Asian production hubs, completing ocean freight and clearing U.S. customs generally requires at least around 40-45 days. Working backward from the implementation date, shipments intended to enter the U.S. before the new measures take effect may therefore need to depart by around mid-October to provide a more comfortable logistics buffer. From a procurement perspective, the closer the market gets to mid-October, the less time remains to arrange new export orders, which could gradually reduce traders’ willingness to chase higher prices. Assuming no major changes in logistics conditions, trader purchasing patterns or subsequent U.S. implementation rules, the market could follow a baseline pattern in which export-related stockpiling continues to support orders and prices through August and September. As the available shipping window narrows and compliance risks rise in October, new inquiries may gradually decline. If incremental export procurement weakens materially by mid- to late October, domestic module producers could once again become more influential in setting solar cell prices. Q4 Outlook: Domestic Demand May Provide a Floor, but Correction Risks Rise After October From a supply-demand perspective, the solar cell market could see two distinct phases of demand in Q4. The first phase is concentrated procurement linked to front-loaded exports. Such orders tend to be released quickly and are highly sensitive to delivery timing. Traders may be willing to pay a certain premium to secure product within the available policy window, helping reduce inventories at cell producers and providing continued support to prices. The second phase would depend more heavily on domestic demand. Q4 project deliveries could lift module production schedules and, in theory, increase solar cell consumption. However, domestic module producers are much more cost-sensitive than traders purchasing against a time-limited export window. Their procurement is more closely tied to immediate production needs, and they are less willing to absorb elevated prices. In other words, stronger domestic demand could provide downside support, but may not be sufficient to sustain the high prices created during the export-driven procurement window. Based on this logic, SMM expects solar cell prices to remain relatively firm through August and September, while upward momentum could gradually weaken after entering October. If new export orders begin to decline from early October while module producers continue to resist higher prices, the probability of a downward shift in transaction prices will increase in mid- to late October. The scale of any correction will depend on the actual volume purchased by traders, incremental production at cell manufacturers and the strength of domestic module demand. At the same time, if a substantial portion of the expected 15-20 GW of stockpiling demand is converted into trader purchases but downstream consumption ultimately lags the pace of earlier inventory building, stock pressure could increase once the policy window closes. If part of the material remains in trader inventories or overseas warehouses, subsequent channel restocking demand may effectively have been pulled forward, potentially weakening export orders further in November and December. Three Indicators to Watch First, changes in the volume and pricing of solar cell purchases by module manufacturers. If higher-priced transactions remain concentrated among traders while module makers continue to procure only on a low-inventory, just-in-time basis, the rally will still lack sustained downstream support. Second, cell producer inventories and production schedules. If manufacturers rapidly increase output in response to stronger export orders, but the additional production encounters weaker export demand after October, inventories could begin building again and amplify downward price pressure. Third, order divergence among different cell formats. High-efficiency products and formats better suited to export demand may remain relatively firm, while more abundantly supplied products primarily serving the domestic market could feel pricing pressure from module makers earlier. Overall, the impact of the current Section 232-driven market on China’s solar cell sector can be summarized as “near-term export-led destocking, a shift in demand drivers around October, and a return to domestic fundamentals in Q4.” With traders still driving a significant share of high-priced procurement and module producers yet to broadly accept current cell prices, the rally remains clearly cyclical and structural in nature. As the front-loading window narrows after mid-October, the risk of a correction in solar cell prices is likely to rise materially.

Ningbo Fubang announced on the evening of August 12 that, upon application and approval from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the company's stock abbreviation will be changed from "Ningbo Fubang" to "Fubang New Materials" starting August 18, 2026, while the stock code "600768" will remain unchanged. The company completed the industrial and commercial registration change procedures on August 12, 2026, and its full name has been changed to "Ningbo Fubang High-Tech Materials Co., Ltd." Following the acquisition of a 55% stake in Ningbo Electrical Alloy Co., Ltd. through a major asset restructuring in December 2024, Ningbo Electrical Alloy Co., Ltd. has become a controlling subsidiary of the listed company. The company's main business has now changed from aluminum processing to the production and sales of electrical contact products and materials (the core raw materials for electrical contact products and materials are mainly silver and silver alloys). In 2025, the company's revenue from electrical contact products and materials accounted for 70% of its total revenue, becoming a core driver of the company's performance growth and one of the important directions for future strategic development. To align the company name with the current industrial operating landscape and development strategy, match the direction of optimizing the main business structure and industrial layout planning, and guide the market and investors to fully understand the company's core value, the company has changed its stock abbreviation from "Ningbo Fubang" to "Fubang New Materials".

SMM News, August 18: Metals market: Overnight, base metals in the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.84%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.19%. SHFE zinc fell 0.48%, and SHFE tin fell 1.47%. SHFE lead edged up, while SHFE nickel edged down. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.56%, and the continuous casting aluminum contract fell 0.71%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel rose 0.32%, iron ore rose 0.14%, and rebar fell 0.3%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.18%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.18%, while the most-traded coke contract rose 0.23%. Overnight, in overseas metals, LME base metals mostly moved lower. LME copper fell 0.3%. LME aluminum rose 0.45%. LME lead fell 0.55%. LME zinc fell 0.11%. LME tin fell 0.49%. LME nickel fell 0.36%. Overnight, precious metals : COMEX gold extended the previous trading day’s gains, rising 0.81%, while COMEX silver rose 1.22%. Overnight, the continuous SHFE gold contract extended the previous trading day’s gains, rising 0.41%, while the continuous SHFE silver contract rose 0.82%. As of 7:16 on August 18, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [The Ministry of Commerce and other departments jointly issued the “Opinions on Further Stimulating the Vitality of Lower-Tier Markets and Boosting County-Level Consumption”] The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments released the “Opinions on Further Stimulating the Vitality of Lower-Tier Markets and Boosting County-Level Consumption,” which proposed accelerating the renewal of existing commercial facilities. It supports the upgrading and renovation of traditional department stores and aging shopping malls, and promotes optimized layout for branded chain stores, discount retail stores, and fresh e-commerce storefronts, among others. It will deepen the renovation and upgrading of the “1,000 Markets and 10,000 Stores” initiative, support the construction and upgrading of township commercial and trade centers, (agricultural) trade markets, and distinctive township fairs, and carry out standardized and regulated construction and renovation of new-type convenience stores and village-level integrated postal and express logistics service stations. [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): From January to July, value-added industrial output above designated size nationwide grew 5.3%, and the national economy maintained a development trend toward new drivers, higher quality, and improvement] According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): From January to July, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments conscientiously implemented the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, effectively responded to various external shocks and internal difficulties, focused on implementing more proactive and effective macro policies, and solidly advanced high-quality development. Production and supply grew steadily, employment and prices were generally stable, resilience in foreign trade continued to stand out, new drivers of growth expanded and strengthened, and overall economic performance remained stable, sustaining a development trend of shifting momentum toward new drivers and optimizing the structure. From January to July, the value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide increased by 5.3% YoY. By three major sectors, value added increased by 2.5% YoY in mining, 5.6% in manufacturing, and 5.4% in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water. Value added increased by 9.7% YoY in the equipment manufacturing industry and 13.8% in high-tech manufacturing, respectively 4.4 and 8.5 percentage points faster than overall industrial enterprises above the designated size. [National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and National Energy Administration Issue the 15th Five-Year Plan for Oil and Natural Gas Development] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration issued the 15th Five-Year Plan for Oil and Natural Gas Development. It proposed that by 2030, China’s oil and gas supply will reach 440 million mt of oil equivalent; newly added long-distance oil and gas pipelines will total 20,000 km; the nationwide long-distance oil and gas pipeline network will reach 220,000 km; natural gas storage capacity will continue to increase, accounting for more than 13% of national consumption; LNG receiving terminals will have a throughput capacity of 200 million mt/year; the capacity for imported natural gas via onshore pipelines will reach 114 billion m³/year; and annual CO₂ injection under carbon capture and storage/carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCS/CCUS) will reach 10 million mt. [NDRC Deploys Efforts to Accelerate the Deployment of New-Type Policy-Based Financial Instruments in 2026 and Increase Support for Private Investment Projects] On August 14, Comrade Yue Xiuhu, a member of the Party Leadership Group and Vice Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), chaired a working meeting to deploy efforts to accelerate the deployment of new-type policy-based financial instruments in 2026 and increase support for private investment projects. Officials in charge from some provincial development and reform commissions, as well as officials in charge from China Development Bank, the Export-Import Bank of China, and the Agricultural Development Bank of China, and officials in charge from relevant departments and bureaus of the NDRC attended the meeting. Next, the NDRC will earnestly implement the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, actively work with relevant parties, and further accelerate all related work on the new-type policy-based financial instruments for 2026. (NDRC) [Li Bin of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange: Since July, China’s Foreign Exchange Market Has Remained Stable] In response to reporters’ questions on foreign exchange market conditions in July 2026, Li Bin, Deputy Administrator of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said that since July, the external environment has been complex and volatile, geopolitical uncertainty has risen, and international financial markets have continued to fluctuate. China’s foreign exchange market has remained stable, the scale of cross-border receipts and payments has expanded steadily, market expectations have been generally stable, and foreign exchange transactions have been rational and orderly. In terms of the scale of cross-border transactions, in July, total cross-border receipts and payments of non-bank sectors such as enterprises and individuals amounted to $1.7 trillion, up 20% YoY; foreign exchange market trading volume was $4.3 trillion, up 8% YoY, both remaining at relatively high levels. From the perspective of cross-border capital flows, in July, net cross-border capital inflows of $59.8 billion were recorded for non-bank sectors such as enterprises and individuals. Among these, net capital inflows under trade in goods remained high, while net capital outflows under trade in services and items such as dividend and interest payments by foreign-invested enterprises remained stable. From the perspective of foreign exchange market supply and demand, in July, banks posted a surplus of $18.3 billion in foreign exchange settlement and sales, with enterprises conducting settlement and sales transactions rationally based on actual needs and changes in market conditions; foreign exchange market supply and demand were basically balanced. (State Administration of Foreign Exchange) US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index extended the declines of the previous two trading days, falling a further 0.06% to 99.58. On Monday local time, US Treasury yields broadly moved higher. The 30-year Treasury yield, which is typically more sensitive to geopolitical events, rose by more than 4 basis points to 5.311%, the highest level since June 2007. The 10-year Treasury yield—the key benchmark rate for mortgages, auto loans, and credit card debt—rose by more than 2 basis points to 4.724%. The 2-year Treasury yield, which usually fluctuates in line with US Fed short-term rate decisions, rose by more than 1 basis point on Monday to 4.182%. Oil prices climbed as the 60-day deadline for the US-Iran peace agreement was set to expire on Monday, and Iran had ruled out the possibility of an extension. Investors were awaiting the release of the US Fed meeting minutes later this week to gain further insight into the US Fed’s latest monetary policy decision and the future path of interest rates. At its July 29 meeting, the US Fed voted 9–3 to keep rates unchanged in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. The three dissenting committee members—Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan—called for a 25-basis-point rate hike. According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through September was 65%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike was 35%. The probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through October was 51.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike was 41.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike was 7.4%. Citadel Securities said that after inflation had remained above target for an extended period, the US Fed’s continued reluctance to tighten monetary policy had kept long-term bond yields at multi-year highs and posed broader risks to the overall market. Noshad Shah, head of EMEA fixed income sales at Citadel Securities, said that although the policy rate was already 175 basis points below its peak, long-term US Treasury yields were still at their highest levels in nearly 20 years. Shah said: “In my view, this reflects the market’s belief that whether it is the US Fed or the fiscal authorities, when policymakers face difficult choices, they often tend to choose the easier path.”“As long as this situation persists, it will continue to pose risks to the broader market.” On Monday, the US 30-year Treasury yield climbed to a 19-year high, breaking above 5.28%. Data released last week showed that both inflation and consumer demand had slowed down, prompting the bond market to scale back expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut in September. Shah warned that the recent improvement in inflation and a weakening labor market should not be interpreted as meaning interest-rate risks have been eliminated. He noted that more than 55% of core goods prices were still rising. As a result, he believed the US Fed’s policy meeting next month would be a “dead heat.” Goldman Sachs said that, with US inflation cooling, market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes remained overly aggressive. Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a report that, due to weak retail sales, disappointing employment data, and continued slowing in inflation, the likelihood of a US Fed rate hike at the September meeting was “very low” . Hatzius wrote: “Based on our baseline economic forecast, over time the probability that inflation data improve further is higher than the probability that they deteriorate again. We still believe the market’s pricing of the federal funds rate is too hawkish.” Data showed that the market had pushed back expectations for the next 25-basis-point US Fed rate hike to January next year, whereas a week earlier the market had fully expected the US Fed to hike in December. Goldman Sachs believed that, although market pricing was no longer as hawkish, there was still room for expectations for interest rate hikes to fade further. (Jinshi Data) On the macro front: Data due to be released today included the UK three-month ILO unemployment rate for June, the UK unemployment rate for July, the UK claimant count for July, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for August, the eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for August, the weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ending August 1, US annualized housing starts for July, total US building permits for July, the US import price index month-on-month for July, US industrial output month-on-month for July, and the US pending home sales index month-on-month for July. In addition, watch for: Xiaomi Group’s earnings conference call; Baidu’s earnings conference call. On crude oil: Overnight, both crude oil futures extended the previous session’s gains and continued to rise, with WTI up 3.09% and Brent up 2.91%. The US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in June this year technically expired on Monday. With the expiration of the US-Iran ceasefire escalating tensions, oil prices strengthened. According to CCTV News, on August 17 local time, US President Trump made it clear that he was not seeking to extend the memorandum of understanding with Iran, and said there was "no timetable" for resolving the Iran issue, adding that he "was not in a hurry". Iran issued a tough response in tandem. US Energy Secretary Wright said the US would “fight a long war” against Iran, and Treasury Secretary Bessent hinted that new economic sanctions are expected to be introduced soon. Russia, meanwhile, has faced fuel shortages after Ukraine’s sustained strikes on refineries, and two regions have implemented gasoline rationing. Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, Chief Analyst at Global Risk Management, said that more oil being shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with the US shift toward economic sanctions, is depressing the geopolitical premium and capping upside room for oil prices; however, the economic pressure strategy means the strait could be closed for months. (Wallstreetcn) Saudi Arabia is providing oil supplies loaded near the coast of Oman, indicating the country may be following the UAE’s lead by transshipping more crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz. According to people familiar with the matter, Saudi Aramco is supplying crude cargoes loaded at locations such as Sohar in the Gulf of Oman via ship-to-ship transfers. The cargoes involved are Arab Medium and Arab Heavy crude, suggesting the crude is highly likely to originate from the Persian Gulf. Saudi Aramco CEO Nasser said in March that the Yanbu pipeline mainly carries Arab Light and Arab Extra Light crude. He said at the time that the country’s offshore oil fields are primarily located in the Persian Gulf, forming the country’s supply of medium and heavy oil. Saudi Aramco declined to comment on the above information. (Jinshi Data APP)

The New South Wales government has granted MACH Energy’s Mount Pleasant coal mine a six-year operating extension through the end of 2032. The mine’s existing approval was due to expire in December. The new approval also raises its annual extraction limit from 10.5 million tonnes to 12.5 million tonnes, an increase of 2 million tonnes or approximately 19.0%. Furthermore, MACH Energy’s separate proposal to operate through 2048 and extract an additional 247 million tonnes remains before the High Court of Australia .

After nearly two months of continuous declines, TOPCon cell prices have recently seen a strong rebound. Prices of various sizes have risen sharply within just one week, drawing significant attention from companies across the PV industry chain. According to SMM data, as of August 12, the actual transaction prices of monocrystalline TOPCon cells in 183mm, 210R and 210mm sizes were RMB 0.29/W, RMB 0.285/W and RMB 0.29/W, respectively, up about 15% from the beginning of August.

The Zenica Municipal Court in Bosnia and Herzegovina has officially initiated bankruptcy proceedings against the Zenica steel plant. The court has appointed a bankruptcy administrator and given creditors a 30-day window to submit claims against the company's assets. A formal hearing to examine creditor claims and assess the distressed steelmaker's financial situation is scheduled for December 8, 2026.

Editor’s Note: Looking back at the H1 rare earth market, it was truly a case of “you reap what you sow.” The rare earth sector as a whole drifted higher amid consolidation, while price performance diverged across products. Pr-Nd oxide rose 22.42% in H1, dysprosium oxide increased 5.97%, and terbium oxide gained 8.37%. As the tide lifts all boats, the rise in rare earth prices directly boosted operating returns for enterprises across the industry chain. According to SMM statistics, the 10 rare earth-related firms that have disclosed semi-annual reports, preliminary earnings releases, and earnings forecasts all delivered varying degrees of earnings growth in H1. The market is now eagerly awaiting the realization of demand in the traditional peak season. At this period of transition from summer to autumn, can the H2 rare earth market sustain H1’s gains, and what kind of market landscape will emerge for upstream and downstream players in the rare earth industry chain? Multiple Rare Earth Companies Report Strong H1 Results A semi-annual earnings forecast disclosed by China Rare Earth on the evening of July 13 showed that, based on preliminary estimates by the company’s finance department, net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm for the 2026 semi-annual period was expected to be 3,700 million yuan to 4,300 million yuan, an increase of 297.5013 million yuan to 357.5013 million yuan from the same period last year, up 410.35% to 493.11% YoY. Net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm after deducting non-recurring gains and losses for the 2026 semi-annual period was expected to be 3,680.027 million yuan to 4,280.027 million yuan, an increase of 276.2326 million yuan to 336.2326 million yuan from the same period last year, up 301.00% to 366.39% YoY. Regarding the main reasons for the expected earnings increase for the period, China Rare Earth stated: (1) In H1 2026, amid changes in the supply-demand pattern of the rare earth industry and YoY increases in prices of major rare earth products, the company enhanced overall operating value of its core rare earth business by innovating an integrated operating model, coordinating rare earth raw material procurement for separation plants and full-product market sales, and dynamically adjusting its product output mix based on analysis of changes in supply and demand. (2) The company vigorously advanced loss-making enterprise remediation and deepened reform initiatives, achieving notable results; resources were further concentrated in core main businesses and advantaged businesses, and loss-making enterprises significantly reduced losses YoY. (3) The company’s investee, Dabaoshan, maintained stable and high output; sales and prices of copper and sulfur products both rose YoY, increasing enterprise profitability, and the company’s investment income recognized under the equity method increased. A semi-annual earnings forecast disclosed by Huahong Technology on the evening of July 13 showed that net profit attributable to the parent in H1 2026 was expected to be 320 million yuan to 360 million yuan, up 301.84%–352.08% YoY. Regarding the reasons for the performance change, Huahong Technology stated: In H1 2026, benefiting from industry policies and a rebound in downstream demand, prices of major rare earth products in China climbed steadily. The company’s comprehensive utilization segment for rare earth resources seized market opportunities, fully leveraging its overall advantages in capacity scale, cost control, and process technologies, continuously optimizing supply–production–sales coordination and inventory management strategies, and effectively driving a full release of profitability in this segment. The company continued to deepen its layout across the rare earth industry chain, with its downstream rare earth permanent magnet material business expanding steadily. Benefiting from stable demand in end-use sectors such as NEVs, wind power, and industrial automation, this segment continued to scale up, with revenue and product mix continuously improving, becoming an important supplement to earnings growth. Xiamen Tungsten’s semiannual performance forecast showed that, based on preliminary calculations by the finance department, it was expected that in H1 2026, net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm would be about 2.2160318 billion yuan, an increase of about 1.2467133 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, up about 128.62% YoY. Based on preliminary calculations by the finance department, it was expected that in H1 2026, net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm after excluding non-recurring gains and losses would be about 2.1760263 billion yuan, an increase of about 1.2534882 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, up about 135.87% YoY. Regarding the main reasons for the expected increase in performance for the period, Xiamen Tungsten explained: In H1, amid a market environment where material prices for major raw materials such as tungsten, cobalt, lithium carbonate, and Pr-Nd oxide rose YoY and swung wildly, the company responded proactively, dynamically adjusted its operating strategy, and drove a linked rise in selling prices; meanwhile, it continued to enhance product quality and market development capabilities. Sales of major products such as alloy bars, cutting tools, power battery cathode materials, and magnetic materials climbed steadily, and profitability across the company’s three core businesses—tungsten & molybdenum, new energy materials, and rare earths—improved to varying degrees. Ningbo Yunsheng disclosed a performance forecast on the evening of July 14, showing that, based on preliminary calculations by the finance department, it was expected that in H1 2026, net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm would be 240 million yuan to 310 million yuan; compared with the same period last year (statutorily disclosed figures), it would increase by 132.1657 million yuan to 202.1657 million yuan, up 122.56%–187.48% YoY. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, was expected to be 2.1 billion yuan to 2.8 billion yuan for the 2026 semiannual period. Compared with the same period last year (statutorily disclosed data), this was expected to increase by 1.3954 billion yuan to 1.913954 billion yuan, up 137.01% to 216.01% YoY. Ningbo Yunsheng stated that the main reasons for this performance increase were: during the reporting period, the Company remained client demand-oriented, deeply focused on NEVs, consumer electronics, industrial and other application fields, actively explored emerging and regional markets, seized development opportunities for new projects, continuously optimized its business mix, and increased the proportion of revenue from outside China. Meanwhile, the Company continued to deepen refined management, driving higher product gross margins and resulting in an increase in net profit. The semiannual earnings forecast released by China Northern Rare Earth showed that, based on a preliminary estimate by the Company’s finance department, the net profit attributable to owners of the parent was expected to be 19.8 billion yuan to 20.6 billion yuan for the 2026 semiannual period. Compared with the same period last year (statutorily disclosed data), this was expected to increase by 10.5 billion yuan to 11.3 billion yuan, up 112.74% to 121.33% YoY. The net profit attributable to owners of the parent, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, was expected to be 19.9 billion yuan to 20.7 billion yuan for the 2026 semiannual period. Compared with the same period last year (statutorily disclosed data), this was expected to increase by 10.93 billion yuan to 11.73 billion yuan, up 121.90% to 130.82% YoY. As for the main reasons for the performance increase in the current period: In H1 2026, the Company served the national rare earth resources strategy and fully implemented the requirements for secure control of the rare earth industry chain. Affected by factors such as constrained supply on the raw material end of the market and the release of downstream demand across multiple areas with sustained growth, rare earth product prices overall strengthened and consolidated. Centered on the annual production and operating task targets, the Company made coordinated planning and adopted comprehensive measures, strengthened comprehensive budget management, pursued cost reduction, quality improvement and efficiency enhancement in synergy, scientifically organized production and production schedules, stepped up market sales and marketing operations, deepened reform and innovation, strengthened group management and risk prevention and control, and advanced the deep integration of specialized management, lean management and 5S management with high quality. It promoted the construction of key projects, accelerated the development of new quality productive forces through management and scientific research and innovation, and provided solid support and assurance for the Company to achieve sound operating results with strong industry chain value creation capability and core competitiveness. The Company scientifically refined its production organization and operations, and production of rare earth smelting and separation products, rare earth metal products, and rare earth new materials all reached record highs for the same period; its subsidiary Inner Mongolia North Rare Earth Magnetic Materials Co., Ltd. achieved operating revenue of approximately 9.5 billion yuan in H1, up approximately 107% YoY, maintaining a growth trend for three consecutive years; its subsidiary Inner Mongolia Xi’aoke Hydrogen Storage Alloy Co., Ltd. put its first batch of 1,000 hydrogen-powered two-wheelers into official operation in Baotou City, with cumulative safe mileage reaching 170,000 kilometers, and the project’s demonstration effect was significant. The company continued to benchmark against advanced practices both internally and externally to further tap its potential, strengthened refined management, and achieved significant improvements in multiple economic and technical indicators. Based on targeted measures across business segments: the smelting and separation segment overcame new changes in production costs caused by rising prices of raw and auxiliary materials, effectively controlled cost fluctuations, and scientifically organized production and production scheduling to ensure new demand for product supply; the rare earth metals segment used the strengthening of lean production as a key lever and leveraged digital and intelligent tools to further enhance on-site process operation management, driving new breakthroughs in economic and technical indicators such as quality and material consumption ratios; the rare earth new materials and applications segment fully leveraged the advantages of newly added capacity, precisely aligned with client needs, and made new progress in using production to drive sales promotions. The company deepened coordinated linkage across the industry chain, and on the basis of ensuring stable product supply, consolidated the foundation of cooperation with downstream clients. Shenghe Resources’ H1 performance forecast released on July 10 showed that, based on preliminary calculations by the company’s finance department, net profit attributable to owners of the parent for 2026 H1 was expected to be 800 million to 930 million yuan, an increase of 423.0938 million to 553.0938 million yuan compared to the same period last year, up 112.25% to 146.75% YoY. Net profit attributable to owners of the parent for 2026 H1 after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was expected to be 790 million to 920 million yuan, an increase of 426.487 million to 556.487 million yuan compared to the same period last year, up 117.32% to 153.09% YoY. Regarding the main reasons for the expected increase in performance for the period, Shenghe Resources stated that during the reporting period, influenced by factors such as rare earth industry policies and downstream demand, overall market demand for the company’s major rare earth products improved, and product prices and average selling prices rose significantly compared with the previous year. The company seized market opportunities, optimized its production and sales structure, strengthened management empowerment and cost control, thereby driving a substantial increase in performance. According to the semi-annual report recently released by China Rare Earth, in H1, the supply-demand pattern of the rare earth industry continued to be adjusted and optimized; driven by multiple favorable factors such as rare earth industry policies and a boost in downstream market demand, the overall market trend rose, and Pr-Nd product prices increased notably compared to the same period last year. In line with the annual work plan, the company anchored its targets and further increased pressure, rode the momentum and strove to lead, strengthened Party-building leadership, and closely focused on six key tasks—resource security, efficient operations, technological innovation, project development, deepening reform, and capability building—making targeted efforts and achieving significant phased results. Both operational performance and quality improved in tandem, all operating targets and tasks were successfully completed, and the company worked hard to create a new landscape of high-quality leapfrog development, laying the foundation for a strong start to the “15th Five-Year Plan” period. In H1 , the company achieved operating revenue of 1.647 billion yuan; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm of 237 million yuan, up 46.53% YoY; and net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 240 million yuan, up 55.49% YoY. The H1 performance forecast disclosed by Tianhe Magnetics on July 9 showed that, based on preliminary calculations by the finance department, net profit attributable to owners of the parent company for H1 2026 was expected to be 73 million yuan to 93 million yuan, representing an increase of 19.5448 million yuan to 39.5448 million yuan compared with the same period last year (statutorily disclosed data), up 36.56% to 73.98% YoY. Net profit attributable to owners of the parent company for H1 2026 after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was expected to be 68 million yuan to 88 million yuan, representing an increase of 32.5723 million yuan to 52.5723 million yuan compared with the same period last year (statutorily disclosed data), up 91.94% to 148.39% YoY. Regarding the main reasons for the expected increase in H1 performance, Tianhe Magnetics stated: 1、 In H1, raw material prices fluctuated at elevated levels overall. The company optimized its pricing strategy for certain existing inventory and new orders, and raised product selling prices. 2、In 2026, the company proactively seized market opportunities and carried out sales efforts around “focusing on emerging markets, deepening customer relationships, and optimizing channel layout,” achieving dual-engine growth driven by both international and China markets. Market development delivered notable results, and overall operating revenue is expected to increase by about 30% YoY, with revenue from China operations expected to increase by about 50% YoY. 3、During the reporting period, the impact of non-recurring gains and losses on net profit was expected to be about 5 million yuan, versus non-recurring gains and losses (after tax) of 18.0275 million yuan in the same period last year. The H1 performance forecast released by JL MAG Rare-Earth on July 1 showed that net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company in H1 2026 was expected to be 400 million yuan to 460 million yuan, up 31.17%-50.84% YoY. Regarding the reasons for the performance change, JL MAG Rare-Earth stated in its announcement: 1、In H1 2026, the company’s management adhered to the annual operating policy of “upholding lawfulness and compliance, maintaining a customer-oriented approach, focusing on the core magnetic material business, building 20,000 mt of new capacity on schedule, actively deploying motor rotors for embodied robots, and reaching new peaks again.” Through measures such as technological innovation, organizational optimization, digital development, and lean management, the company ensured contract performance and delivery to its broad client base while achieving steady growth in operating performance. The company continued to consolidate its leading position in the new energy and energy-saving environmental protection sectors, actively expanded into emerging markets, and operating revenue was expected to be up about 30% YoY. In particular, operating revenue in the NEV and automotive parts segment was up about 30% YoY; in the robotics and industrial servo motor segment, operating revenue was up about 90% YoY, and embodied-robot motor rotor products had already been delivered in small batches. 2. During the reporting period, the impact of non-recurring gains and losses on net profit was expected to be about 32 million yuan; non-recurring gains and losses (after tax) in the same period last year were 70.9405 million yuan. 3. During this reporting period, due to A-share and H-share equity incentives and the issuance of H-share convertible bonds, related expenses such as share-based payment expenses and financial expenses totaled about 121 million yuan; there were no such expenses in the same period last year. Zhong Ke San Huan released its 2026 H1 performance bulletin on the evening of July 20, showing that in H1, the company achieved operating revenue of 36,137.721 million yuan, up 23.67% YoY; total profit of 1,028.001 million yuan, up 1.18% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm of 492.189 million yuan, up 11.88% from the same period last year; and after excluding the impact of non-recurring gains and losses such as government subsidies, net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm excluding non-recurring gains and losses of 323.035 million yuan, up 2.25% from the same period last year. Zhong Ke San Huan’s semiannual performance bulletin showed that in 2026 H1, amid increasingly intense market competition and a complex and volatile external environment, through the joint efforts of all employees, the company’s core product sales were up YoY, and cost-reduction measures such as optimizing formulation processes and reducing the usage of heavy rare earth helped lift the overall gross margin up YoY; the operations of some subsidiaries improved, achieving reduced losses or a turnaround; meanwhile, the company further improved inventory management, optimized the inventory mix of key raw materials, and impairment losses decreased YoY. Affected by the RMB’s appreciation against the US dollar and the euro, the company incurred foreign exchange losses during the reporting period, and financial expenses increased YoY, partially offsetting the profit growth. In H1 This Year, Pr-Nd oxide Rose 22.42%; Dysprosium Oxide and Terbium Oxide Both Increased In 2026 H1, the rare earth oxide market went through a roller-coaster cycle of “sharp surge—plunge—repair—re-divergence.” Pr-Nd oxide saw the most dramatic price fluctuations, while dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide prices rose first, then fell, and then rebounded. Reviewing the H1 price trends of Pr-Nd oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide shows that: The average price of Pr-Nd oxide on June 30 was 742,500 yuan/mt, up 136,000 yuan/mt from its average price of 606,500 yuan/mt on December 31, 2025, representing a H1 increase of 22.42%. Meanwhile, the semiannual daily average price of Pr-Nd oxide in H1 this year was 740,530.17 yuan/mt, up 309,577.18 yuan/mt YoY from its daily average of 430,952.99 yuan/mt in H1 2025, a YoY increase of 71.84%. The average price of dysprosium oxide on June 30 was 1,420 yuan/kg, up 80 yuan/kg from its average price of 1,340 yuan/kg on December 31, 2025, representing a H1 increase of 5.97%. However, comparing the daily average price of dysprosium oxide in H1 this year (1,394.09 yuan/kg) with the daily average in H1 2025 (1,660.26 yuan/kg) shows that its daily average in H1 this year fell 16.03% YoY. The average price of terbium oxide on June 30 was 6,475 yuan/kg, up 500 yuan/kg from its average price of 5,975 yuan/kg on December 31, 2025, representing a H1 increase of 8.37%. However, comparing the daily average price of terbium oxide in H1 this year (6,200.26 yuan/kg) with the daily average in H1 2025 (6,634.62 yuan/kg) shows that its daily average in H1 this year fell 6.55% YoY. Since entering August, the rare earth market has maintained a move sideways pattern amid a tug-of-war between upstream and downstream. At present, downstream enthusiasm for inquiries and purchases is not high, market inquiry activity remains relatively limited, and the overall trading atmosphere is sluggish, with rare earth prices continuing to diverge: the Pr-Nd market was affected by the continued pullback in futures prices, leading some suppliers to slightly lower their quotes; medium-heavy rare earth prices showed strong resilience and generally remained stable. In the short term, affected by the market stalemate, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to continue to move sideways within a narrow range. In the medium and long-term, SMM expects that overall supply of Pr-Nd oxide in 2026 will still have a tight underlying basis, but with new capacity in H2 gradually coming on stream, previously idle smelting and separation capacity plans to start up, and subsequent pressure for supply-side loosening may gradually emerge. On the demand side, rising toll processing orders at metal plants in Inner Mongolia will provide some rigid demand support for Pr-Nd oxide. As the traditional September-October peak season approaches, the market holds strong expectations for downstream restocking and stockpiling; end-use demand still has a considerable number of NEV orders awaiting concentrated release in H2. The industrial robot sector’s boom is expected to continue, and demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to post a notable increase YoY within the year. While emerging tracks such as humanoid robots and the low-altitude economy are developing rapidly and offer ample long-term growth potential, they are still in the early stage of industry cultivation, and their actual incremental contribution to rare earth permanent magnets remains limited for now. Whether expectations for peak-season demand will be fulfilled and the pace at which new capacity is released will become the key variables shaping the subsequent rare earth market. Voices From Different Parties A research report released by Datong Securities on August 11 noted that rare earth spot prices pulled back in the short term, and downstream magnetic material enterprises were relatively cautious in procurement. However, amid three supply constraints—tighter mining quotas, upgraded export controls, and production cuts in scrap recycling—together with restocking demand in markets outside China, the logic of strategic revaluation remained intact. Overall, policy controls and demand from emerging industries continued to jointly drive the minor metal sector, with the commodity and financial attributes of scarce resources reinforcing each other, and the valuation-repair rally still extending. A China Securities research report stated that, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, rare earth exports in July fell markedly while the average price rose. July rare earth exports totaled 4,223.5 mt, down 29.54% YoY and 17.26% MoM, the lowest single-month level since March; cumulative exports in January–July were 34,706.3 mt, down 10% YoY. Meanwhile, the corresponding average export price was $12.34/kg, surging 103.14% YoY. The export mix tilted toward higher-value medium-heavy rare earth products; markets outside China accepted higher-priced raw material, and the tight global rare earth supply-demand pattern persisted. On the supply side, there was no growth for the time being; production at separation enterprises remained stable, and enterprises that had halted production earlier had no plans to resume operations. Downstream rigid demand support was moderate, and long-term demand expectations were improving. Rare earth prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note in the near term. A Citic Securities research report indicated that, against the backdrop of constraints from indicators combined with declining imports, rigidness in rare earth supply continued to strengthen. Affected by tighter tax policy, the operating rate of scrap recycling enterprises remained persistently low. Industry chain rigid-demand restocking, together with the approaching peak season, is expected to drive demand to recover. Emerging fields such as robotics, the low-altitude economy, and industrial motors are expected to open up longer-term demand growth space. The rare earth industry’s supply-demand pattern may remain tight, and as price increases drive performance, interim results of rare earth industry chain companies are expected to beat expectations. It continued to recommend the strategic allocation value of the rare earth industry chain. 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SMM, August 14: In H1, Pr-Nd prices rose significantly, and the results of the 10 companies related to the rare earth industry chain that had already reported rose to varying degrees. Boosted by the substantial rise in spot prices of minor metals such as germanium, tantalum, and indium this year, the semi-annual results of rare and dispersed metal companies such as Yunnan Germanium also showed notable growth. On the other hand, the AI computing power hardware expansion narrative continued to gain traction, and the market focused on expected incremental demand for rare and dispersed metals from optical modules and semiconductor targets. Combined with some market funds positioning early in the minor metals sector, the minor metals industry bucked the trend on August 14. As of the close on August 14, the minor metals sector was up 2.02%. Among individual stocks: China Rare Earth hit limit up, while China Rare Nonferrous, Shenghe Resources, Orient Tantalum, Huaxi Nonferrous, China Northern Rare Earth, and Xiamen Tungsten led gains. Spot Market Germanium According to SMM price data, on August 14, the average price of germanium ingot was 24,500 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day. Compared with the average price of 13,500 yuan/kg on December 31, 2025, the 24,500 yuan/kg average price of germanium ingot has risen 81.48% year to date. This year's rise in germanium ingot prices was mainly supported by tight supply, while overall stable demand from end-use industries provided demand-side support for firm germanium prices. Looking ahead, whether germanium prices can extend their gains will depend on the intensity of the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream and marginal changes in supply-demand fundamentals. Tantalum On August 14, the price of SMM tantalum ingot (Ta≥99.95%) was 6,200-6,300 yuan/kg, with an average price of 6,250 yuan/kg. Compared with the average price of 2,980 yuan/kg on December 31, 2025, the average price of 6,250 yuan/kg has risen 109.73% year to date. Tantalum prices have been supported by demand from emerging fields such as AI servers, but traditional downstream demand has been relatively weak, capping upside room to some extent. Looking ahead, as there has been no significant shift in the supply-demand pattern, tantalum ingot prices are expected to remain stable. Indium On August 14, the average price of refined indium was 5,450 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day. Compared with the average price of 2,825 yuan/kg on December 31, 2025, the average price of 5,450 yuan/kg has risen by 2,625 yuan/kg year to date, up 92.92%. In the medium and long term, as domestic substitution of indium phosphide is realized at an accelerating pace, profit distribution in China's indium industry chain is expected to shift upward. Pr-Nd oxide Pr-Nd oxide posted a significant gain in H1 this year, boosting earnings of related enterprises along the rare earth industry chain. A review of Pr-Nd oxide's H1 price performance shows: On June 30, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide was 742,500 yuan/mt, up 136,000 yuan/mt from 606,500 yuan/mt on December 31, 2025, an H1 gain of 22.42%. Meanwhile, its daily average price in H1 this year was 740,530.17 yuan/mt, up 3,095,771.8 yuan/mt YoY from 430,952.99 yuan/mt in H1 2025, a YoY gain of 71.84%. On August 14, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide was 722,000 yuan/mt, up 0.98% from the previous trading day. Boosted by the recovery in Pr-Nd oxide futures prices, low-priced supply in the market tightened, suppliers slightly raised their offers, and this lifted Pr-Nd oxide prices somewhat. In the near term, as market trading activity gradually recovers, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to stop falling and rise. Recommended reading:

Jiangxi Zhongke Yamei will continue to deepen its presence in the magnesium-alloy lightweight materials sector, driven by technological innovation and guided by market demand, continuously expanding the boundaries of material performance and application scenarios. The company is committed to becoming a leading magnesium-alloy lightweight materials solutions provider in China with international recognition, contributing to the lightweight transformation and green development of China’s manufacturing industry.

August 13, 2026 For Citi, silver remains the classic hedge against gold. In a recent client note, the analysts confirm their optimistic price targets of US$75 per ounce over the next zero to three months and US$90 over the next six to twelve months – based on the current price of around US$65. Investment flows are overtaking industrial demand as a price driver Citi expects investor demand to continue to recover and to have a greater impact on price trends in future than industrial demand. Two macro factors are particularly crucial in this regard: a possible easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a less restrictive stance by the US Federal Reserve. Whilst higher real yields and a strong US dollar have recently weighed on silver , the bank estimates that these factors are likely to ease between September and December. In this environment, silver – with its typically higher beta – should follow the trend set by gold and react particularly sensitively to any geopolitical de-escalation. At the same time, the focus is shifting in the short term from industry towards capital flows. In the solar sector, a structural slowdown is emerging due to material savings and the rise of the more efficient back-contact cell technology (BC). BC technology could become the standard by 2028. Indian tailwind meets structural market deficit The silver market continues to receive strong support from India, where a local premium of around 7 per cent highlights the high level of demand. Citi expects an additional surge in demand here ahead of the upcoming festival and wedding season in the fourth quarter. Despite the headwinds from the solar sector, the bank expects the global silver market to remain in deficit until at least 2027. Key growth drivers such as artificial intelligence, 5G and electric mobility are largely offsetting the weaker demand from the solar sector. For investors, this results in an attractive mix of macroeconomic recovery, rising investor demand and a persistent structural shortfall. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/is-a-silver-rally-on-the-cards-citi-confirms-target-of-ususd90