[SMM Analysis]Weak Supply-Demand Pattern; Secondary Aluminum Prices Were Expected to Come Under Pressure and Pull Back in April

Overall, cost support remained strong, supply tightened while demand stayed stable. As tender prices became clear, aluminum fluoride prices were generally raised by around 800 yuan/mt in line with the guidance. Going forward, close attention should be paid to dynamic changes in raw material costs and adjustments in downstream procurement pace.

Supply glut, cautious demand, and fading cost support drag the benchmark contract down RMB 205/mt in the week of March 30 – April

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. The main logic during the week remained weakening cost support. On Tuesday, Iran proposed charging transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump made conciliatory remarks, saying that “even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, he would still be willing to end military action against Iran.” Market expectations for tighter crude oil supply weakened, and declines in the energy sector dragged down the coal sector, weakening the cost-side logic. During the week, inventories of the five major steel products continued to decline, but apparent demand remained at a low level for the same period in previous years, providing limited fundamental-driven momentum to futures. In the spot market, purchasing interest was average, mainly focused on restocking at low prices. Spot prices were relatively firm, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

On April 2, 2026, the White House ushered US steel trade policy into "Version 2.0." This strategic shift goes beyond simple tariff hikes. It uses full-value taxation and melt-and-pour traceability to block low-end imported raw materials, while applying structural tariff reductions to finished products to ease manufacturing inflation. Ultimately, this two-pronged approach aims to forcibly bring the global supply chain back to domestic US steel production.

The gold price set a technical signal last week while providing fresh fuel for the debate over its future direction.

This week, stainless steel spot prices fell slightly more than production costs, further worsening the inversion between stainless steel mill prices and costs. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on raw material prices on the day, the full cost profit margin was -1.19% this week; calculated based on raw material inventory costs, the margin was -0.55%. Nickel-series raw material costs, high-grade NPI prices remained in the doldrums this week. Although nickel ore prices are currently holding firm and NPI traders are broadly bullish, SHFE nickel futures have been weak recently, while downstream stainless steel prices have struggled to rise. Stainless steel mills themselves are under heavy cost pressure and have shown low acceptance of high-priced raw materials, resulting in sparse market transactions recently; affected by this, high-grade NPI traders have faced considerable transaction pressure, and the price center edged lower slightly. As of this Friday, high-grade NPI with a grade of 10-12% fell by 2 yuan per nickel unit to 1,081.5 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market, stainless steel scrap prices were stable this week, and the decline in finished stainless steel prices did not transmit to the steel scrap market, while prices of substitute furnace charge also remained stable. Tightness in tax invoices eased, the economic advantage of steel scrap became more evident, and high stainless steel mill production schedules drove higher consumption, lifting market transactions and easing inventory pressure. However, finished product prices struggled to rise, limiting upside room for steel scrap prices, which are expected to remain stable in the short term. As of this Friday, the price of 304 off-cuts in Shanghai rose by 100 yuan/mt, with the latest quote at around 10,150 yuan/mt. Chrome-series raw material costs, high-carbon ferrochrome prices dropped back slightly this week. Although some ferrochrome producers recently reported maintenance and production cuts, and stainless steel production schedules for April remained high, leaving retail spot supply in the ferrochrome market relatively tight, stainless steel mills had built relatively ample ferrochrome raw material inventories earlier. Meanwhile, high port inventories of chrome ore recently caused some loosening in chrome ore spot prices. In addition, ferrochrome capacity has already reached a high level, the rainy season in south China is approaching, and ferrochrome producers outside China are resuming production. With ferrochrome producers lacking confidence in the outlook, ferrochrome prices still faced some downward pressure. As of this Friday, high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia fell 25 yuan/mt (50% metal content) WoW to 8,625 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

SMM News, April 3: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,760 yuan/mt intraday. From early trading to mid-session, prices moved sideways within the 16,730-16,780 yuan/mt range. Late in the session, prices fluctuated higher and touched a high of 16,810 yuan/mt, before closing at 16,785 yuan/mt, posting a small bullish candlestick, up 90 yuan/mt, or 0.54. Boosted by market sentiment, lead prices overall fluctuated upward today. Supply side, maintenance and production resumptions at primary lead enterprises proceeded in parallel, while finished product inventories at secondary lead smelters increased slightly WoW this week, and imported lead continued to flow into the Chinese market, leaving overall supply relatively ample. Demand side, with the traditional off-season for lead-acid batteries approaching and the Qingming Festival holiday drawing near, downstream purchase willingness was cautious, and spot market transactions were weak. Overall, resistance to lead prices was evident in the short term. Data source disclaimer: Except for publicly available information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM News, April 2: This week, total inventory in the two major stainless steel markets of Wuxi and Foshan posted a slight inventory buildup, rising from 982,000 mt on March 19, 2026 to 984,100 mt on April 2, 2026, up 0.21% WoW. During the week, stainless steel futures were overall in the doldrums. Dragged down by futures moves, downstream end-users showed strong wait-and-see sentiment, and market inquiries and transactions were sluggish. Although the market was in the traditional peak consumption season, downstream just-in-time procurement was maintained, but amid disruptions from the macro environment, stainless steel prices lacked a clear direction. In the short term, transactions were heavily affected by changes in futures, and downstream end-users generally remained cautious, with little willingness to proactively stockpile, further constraining the pace of inventory digestion. Supply side, steel mills concentrated shipments to the market at month-end March, and arrivals were relatively large this week, directly driving the slight inventory buildup. Meanwhile, planned production at stainless steel mills remained generally high in April, and supply-side pressure persisted, posing a major challenge to inventory digestion. Coupled with continued macro perspective disruptions, rising market uncertainty further reinforced downstream caution, and stockpiling enthusiasm remained low throughout. Overall, this week's slight inventory buildup was mainly driven by the combined impact of concentrated steel mill shipments at month-end March, increased arrivals, weak futures, and insufficient willingness among downstream players to stockpile. At present, the high production schedule pace at steel mills has not changed significantly, and social inventory still faced substantial digestion pressure against the backdrop of high supply. Although the "Silver April" peak season provided some support to demand and just-in-time procurement kept the market basically stable, downstream caution was hard to reverse, making a sharp inventory drawdown difficult in the short term. Going forward, the key to inventory trends will still be closely tracking the release of real downstream demand, the direction of futures, and subsequent changes in the macro environment.

This week, 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts prices in east China held steady at 10,100-10,200 yuan/mt; prices for the same grade of stainless steel scrap off-cuts in Foshan dropped back slightly, with the price range at 9,700-10,000 yuan/mt. Raw material production cost side, the current cost of producing stainless steel entirely from stainless steel scrap was about 14,218.64 yuan/mt, while the production cost of using only high-grade NPI was 14,745.57 yuan/mt. This week, stainless steel scrap prices remained largely stable, mainly as supportive and constraining factors were intertwined, with no obvious one-way trend. Stainless steel finished product prices edged down under pressure from weaker SS futures, and market sentiment was somewhat disturbed, but this did not directly transmit to the stainless steel scrap market, where prices remained stable. Substitute furnace charge performed steadily, with both high-grade NPI and high-carbon ferrochrome prices largely stable this week and showing no obvious fluctuations in change, so their overall impact in driving stainless steel scrap prices was limited and failed to provide effective support or drag. Factors supporting the stable performance of stainless steel scrap prices were more prominent. The recent tightness in stainless steel scrap tax invoices eased somewhat, improving the market trading environment. Meanwhile, the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap over high-grade NPI remained in place. In addition, stainless steel mills' April production schedules stayed high, and steel mills increased their use of stainless steel scrap with economic advantages, lifting recent market trading activity, while previously accumulated inventory pressure also eased to some extent, providing strong support for stable prices. However, constraining factors also remained. Stainless steel finished product prices currently faced difficulty moving higher, and under this transmission effect, stainless steel scrap prices still faced some pressure to rise, making any obvious upward trend difficult to emerge. Overall, the stainless steel scrap market this week showed a pattern of "strong support, clear constraints, and stable prices." Supportive and constraining factors counterbalanced each other, and stainless steel scrap prices were expected to remain stable in the short term.