SMM, June 15: Metal markets: Last Friday’s overnight session saw broad gains across base metals in and outside China, with only LME nickel edging down 0.03%. SHFE tin led the gains, rising 2.19%. LME copper, LME zinc, LME tin and SHFE zinc all gained over 1%: LME copper rose 1.02%, LME zinc rose 1.63%, LME tin rose 1.75% and SHFE zinc rose 1.48%, while the rest of the metals gained less than 1%. In addition, the alumina main contract rose 0.86% and the foundry aluminum main contract rose 0.45%. Last Friday’s overnight session for ferrous metals saw rises across the board except for iron ore, which fell 0.13%. Rebar rose 0.44% and HRC rose 0.59%. On the coking coal and coke front, coking coal rose 0.22% and coke rose 2.73%. Last Friday’s overnight session saw precious metals rebound collectively. COMEX gold rose 3.06% and COMEX silver rose 6.44%. However, due to notable earlier declines, COMEX gold still recorded a weekly loss of 2.87%, marking its second consecutive weekly drop. COMEX silver recorded a weekly loss of 1.42%, marking its fifth consecutive weekly drop. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 2.30% and SHFE silver rose 5.22%. SHFE gold posted a weekly loss of 6.79%, also marking its fifth consecutive weekly drop. SHFE silver plummeted 10.14% for the week, also marking a five-week losing streak. Bank of China issued an announcement, stating that global geopolitics and the US Fed's monetary policy are currently subject to considerable uncertainty. Under the influence of multiple factors, price fluctuations of precious metals in and outside China have further intensified. To protect the interests of clients involved in precious metals-related businesses—such as accumulated gold, accumulated interest gold, account precious metals, two-way account precious metals, and agency services for individual Shanghai Gold Exchange operations—the bank specifically reminds you to guard against market risks, engage in rational investment based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance, reasonably control your precious metals positions, mitigate the impact of short-term price fluctuations through long-term investment, and prevent the risk of capital losses caused by market volatility. As of 8:31 a.m. on June 13, the closing prices from last Friday’s overnight session are as follows: Macro front Domestic front: [PBoC: In the first five months, aggregate social financing rose by 1.748 trillion yuan; new loans stood at 911 billion yuan; May M2 increased 8.6% YoY] PBoC’s preliminary statistics show that the cumulative increase in the aggregate social financing scale for the first five months of 2026 was 17.48 trillion yuan, 1.16 trillion yuan less than the same period last year. Specifically, RMB loans extended to the real economy rose by 9 trillion yuan, a YoY decline of 1.38 trillion yuan; foreign currency loans extended to the real economy, converted into RMB, rose by 115.3 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 211.6 billion yuan; entrusted loans decreased by 103.1 billion yuan, a YoY increase in decline of 91.8 billion yuan; trust loans rose by 5.7 billion yuan, a YoY decline in growth of 57 billion yuan; undiscounted bankers’ acceptances decreased by 17.2 billion yuan, a YoY increase in decline of 151.4 billion yuan; net financing from corporate bonds was 1.67 trillion yuan, a YoY increase of 757.7 billion yuan; net financing from government bonds was 5.67 trillion yuan, a YoY decrease of 634 billion yuan; and domestic stock financing by non-financial enterprises was 230.5 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 79.9 billion yuan. In the first five months, RMB loans increased by 9.11 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans decreased by 631.4 billion yuan, of which short-term loans fell by 694.2 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans rose by 62.8 billion yuan; loans to enterprises and public institutions grew by 9.63 trillion yuan, with short-term loans up 3.77 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans up 4.99 trillion yuan, and bill financing up 699.9 billion yuan; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 279.7 billion yuan. PBOC data showed that at end-May, broad money (M2) stood at 353.67 trillion yuan, up 8.6% YoY. Narrow money (M1) totaled 114.89 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY. Currency in circulation (M0) reached 14.69 trillion yuan, up 11.9% YoY. Net cash injection in the first five months was 590.7 billion yuan. According to the PBOC website, to maintain ample banking system liquidity, on June 15, 2026, the People’s Bank of China will conduct a 600 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation through fixed-quantity, rate-based tender and multiple-price bidding, with a tenor of 6 months (183 days), maturing on December 15, 2026. US dollar: As of the overnight close last Friday, the US dollar index edged up 0.1% to 99.79, posting a weekly decline of 0.28%, with markets closely watching US-Iran peace talks. Multiple US media reported on the 12th that a senior US administration official said that day the US side is “80% to 85%” confident of signing a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran within the coming days. The official also expressed confidence that Israel would support this US-Iran MoU. According to CNN, CBS and others, the official said on a press conference call, “We are not yet fully at the finish line, but we are very close.” The official noted that the specific venue and date for signing the MoU have not been determined, but US President Trump previously suggested signing it in a European country, which could be an option. (Xinhua) Iranian media reported on the 12th that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that once the final stage of negotiations between Iran and the US is completed, the MoU will be signed and announced immediately. The first stage will be signed electronically remotely, “possibly within the next few days.” (Xinhua) HSBC analysts noted in a report that the US dollar exchange rate is currently below levels implied by market expectations for US interest rates. They said the dollar’s reaction has been relatively limited as market expectations recently shifted from anticipated rate cuts to potential rate hikes. They believe this may reflect loose financial conditions in the US and hopes for a resolution to the Middle East conflict. They stated that the dollar requires clear stimulus from monetary policy. If the US Fed fails to support rate hike expectations at this week's meeting, the dollar "could be in trouble." (Jin10 Data App) Traders expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, but see a more than 50% probability of a hike before year-end. Market pricing dialed back slightly after Thursday’s comments from Trump on a potential deal. In other currencies: ING analyst Chris Turner noted that for the EUR/USD exchange rate, the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting may matter more than the ECB’s Thursday rate hike decision. The ECB has signaled further tightening, with markets speculating about another hike in July. However, he stated that because the market has already priced in an aggressive ECB tightening cycle and is reluctant to push that expectation higher, EUR/USD remains below 1.16. Moreover, markets see a possible Fed hike later this year. He indicated that unless the Fed pushes back against this expectation at its Wednesday meeting, the dollar should stay firm. (Jin10 Data App) On the data front: This week, from China, the data to be released include China’s May total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, May industrial value-added above designated size YoY, May share of Swift RMB in global payments, May total electricity consumption YoY (TBD), and May total electricity consumption (TBD). From the US, releases will include the US Fed interest rate decision (upper bound) as of June 17, June NY Empire State manufacturing index, May industrial production MoM, June NAHB housing market index, weekly change in ADP employment as of May 30, May housing starts annualized, May building permits total, May import price index MoM, May retail sales MoM, April business inventories MoM, May pending home sales index MoM, initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13, June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and May Conference Board leading index MoM. From the UK, releases will include May CPI MoM, May retail price index MoM, April three-month ILO unemployment rate, May unemployment rate, May claimant count change, Bank of England rate decision as of June 18, June GfK consumer confidence index, and May seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM. From the eurozone, releases will include April seasonally adjusted trade balance, April industrial production MoM, June ZEW economic sentiment index, May final CPI YoY, May final CPI MoM, and April seasonally adjusted current account. From Switzerland, releases will include the May consumer confidence index, May trade balance, and Swiss National Bank policy rate as of June 18. From Japan, releases will include the Bank of Japan target rate as of June 16 and May core CPI YoY. From Canada, releases will include April wholesale sales MoM and April retail sales MoM. Germany’s June ZEW economic sentiment index, Germany’s May PPI MoM, and the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision as of June 16 will also be published. Additionally, on June 15, China will see the maturity of 218.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 600 billion yuan in six-month outright reverse repos, the National Energy Administration is set to release data on nationwide electricity consumption around the 15th of each month, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will publish the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) will convene a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan (tentative), and China's refined oil products will enter a new pricing window. On June 18, the US Fed's FOMC will release its interest rate decision and summary of economic projections, and Fed Chairman Warsh will hold a monetary policy press conference. ECB President Lagarde will deliver a speech. BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi will hold a monetary policy press conference, and the BOJ will announce its interest rate decision. RBA Governor Block will hold a monetary policy press conference. The Swiss National Bank will announce its interest rate decision, and the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision and minutes. The G7 Summit will open, running until June 17. In the Crude Oil Market: Last Friday, oil prices fell overnight in both markets, with US crude dropping 3.9% and Brent crude dropping 3.96%. Expectations for a US-Iran peace agreement continued to rise, putting oil prices under pressure and pulling them back. On a weekly basis, oil prices also declined, with US crude down 6.9% and Brent crude down 6.76%. In early trading in the US stock market, according to CCTV, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Islamabad memorandum of understanding has never been this close to being reached, causing oil prices to plunge and US stock indices to extend intraday gains. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei stated that the two sides have now reached an understanding on most issues, and Iran is in the final stages of consolidating the MOU text. At midday in the US stock market, CCTV reported that Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif Shehbaz said the final agreed peace agreement text has been completed, and the two countries are moving forward to implement the next steps. Oil prices continued to decline. During the session, US stocks briefly fell after Trump criticized Iran for leaking agreement terms, but then Wall Street News mentioned that the UAE has agreed to unlock large-scale funds to Iran, with the first tranche of about $3 billion already transferred, further boosting optimism about reaching an agreement. (Wall Street News) US Energy Secretary Wright stated that currently about 7 million barrels of oil and fuel pass through the Strait of Hormuz each day, a volume that accounts for about half of the stranded cargo when the Iran conflict first erupted. Wright said that no Iranian crude can currently be shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. He added that if an agreement is reached, he expects all products will be able to pass freely through the Persian Gulf. Wright also noted that if no agreement is reached, the US military will resume transportation along the route. Wright stated that the US will not impose an oil export ban to curb oil prices. (Jinshi Data APP) US Energy Secretary Wright stated on Friday local time that US refiners can still absorb more Venezuelan crude oil. Wright said that Venezuela currently sends about half of its total exports of 1.2 million barrels per day to the US, and this proportion could rise in the coming months. Wright also said that Iran is currently not exporting any oil or refined products. During the Middle East conflict, the US has actively filled the gap in oil exports. (Jinshi Data APP) Triggered by the most severe supply disruption on record from the Iran conflict, US emergency stockpile crude exports have surged to an all-time high. Customs data compiled by Kpler Ltd. show that nearly 22 million barrels of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) have been sold to overseas markets so far this year. This volume has already surpassed the previous record set four years ago. Although exports of crude from the US emergency stockpile are not uncommon, the scale of shipments this year shows that, as the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggers supply disruptions, global markets are increasingly relying on US supplies to weather the crisis. For every three barrels of crude released from the emergency stockpile, roughly one barrel is exported. The volume headed overseas could be even higher, as the Trump administration continues to release the full promised 172 million barrels of crude. This is part of a larger effort by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to help buffer the impact of the Iran war on global energy markets. (Wallstreetcn)

Spot lithium carbonate prices stopped falling and rebounded this week, fluctuating upward. The futures market held up well, with the most-traded September 2026 contract oscillating upward from a price range of 160,300-165,800 yuan/mt at the start of the week to 164,800-175,000 yuan/mt, hitting a mid-week high of 175,000 yuan/mt. The weekly gain was approximately 5.5%, open interest increased significantly, and bullish funds intervened actively. Market transactions showed a pattern of upstream holding prices firm and holding back from selling, while downstream purchased as needed, creating a clear misalignment in price expectations between buyers and sellers. Upstream lithium chemical plants maintained their stance of holding spot orders firm and holding back from selling, with some enterprises keeping their willingness to sell at prices above 170,000 yuan/mt. Downstream material plants held comparatively lower psychological procurement price levels, with most purchasing as needed; their willingness to purchase spot orders weakened as prices rose. Overall, market inquiries were relatively active, but actual transaction volumes remained stable due to the misalignment in price expectations between upstream and downstream. Lithium carbonate production increased this week, mainly due to production lines at spodumene processing facilities that had been under maintenance earlier resuming production successively. The recycling sector and salt lake operations maintained stable production, while lepidolite operations saw minor output fluctuations due to raw material supply issues. From the standpoint of actual transactions and inventory, as prices continued to fluctuate downward, upstream lithium chemical plants were reluctant to sell spot orders; only a few enterprises that had previously hedged at high levels managed to complete small-volume spot transactions with downstream or traders, while most lithium chemical plants still focused on holding prices firm and holding back from selling. However, due to the concentrated delivery of long-term contract orders early in the month, combined with some resumed production lines not yet reaching full capacity, lithium chemical plant inventories experienced slight destocking this week. Downstream material plants saw inventory buildup this week, as early-month long-term contracts and customer-supplied materials arrived successively, along with dip-buying of spot orders. Traders, following downstream purchase-as-needed patterns, exhibited a destocking trend. The price rise this week was mainly driven by the following factors: First, stronger import-side support. According to Chile customs data, Chile's total lithium carbonate exports in May were 19,100 mt, down 35.2% MoM, of which exports to China were 13,600 mt, a sharp decline of 40.8% MoM, marking the first significant pullback in the past six months. Lithium carbonate monthly imports are expected to decrease somewhat in June-July; coupled with continued high production schedules for downstream LFP materials in June, China's destocking speed is expected to accelerate. Second, news-driven disturbances. A fire occurred at the Greenbushes lithium mine's CGP3 plant; although CGP1 and CGP2 operations were unaffected and IGO did not revise its FY2026 production guidance, the extent of the damage to CGP3 and the repair timetable still require attention. A substantial delay in its production ramp-up could impact the pace of future supply growth. Third, the ongoing tug-of-war between longs and shorts persisted, with supply-side factors such as the drop in Chilean exports and Jiangxi mine permit renewals providing support for prices. However, headwinds such as high warrant pressure and expectations of Zimbabwean ore arrivals capped the upside, keeping the tug-of-war between longs and shorts ongoing. Looking ahead, short-term lithium carbonate prices are likely to hold up well.

On June 9, customs data showed that China exported 10.341 million mt of steel in May 2026, an increase of 844,000 mt MoM, up 8.9% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to May reached 44.554 million mt, down 8.1% YoY. China imported 451,000 mt of steel in May 2026, a decrease of 14,000 mt MoM, down 3.1% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to May totaled 2.255 million mt, declining 12.2% YoY. Table1 – Steel Import and Export Data Overview, January-May Source: SMM Steel Exports in May Crossed 10 Million mt MoM According to SMM's export schedule survey for May, planned HRC exports that month stood at 1.1435 million mt, up 213,500 mt from actual April exports, a 23% MoM increase. Meanwhile, SMM export order data showed that from March to April, domestic export prices held a strong advantage in international markets, and overseas demand for semi-finished products remained present. Export orders reached a periodical high in mid-April, providing some support for May exports exceeding 10 million mt. Table 2– China Total Steel Exports Source: SMM Steel Imports in May Declined MoM On the import side, steel imports stood at 451,000 mt in May, edging down MoM. From January to May, China imported a total of 2.255 million mt of steel, down 12.2% YoY; net steel exports reached 42.299 million mt. Short-Term Steel Export Outlook 1. Global manufacturing diverges notably; US accelerates sharply while domestic new export orders slide from highs Global manufacturing activity showed marked divergence in May 2026. The latest PMI data indicates the US accelerated strongly, rising to 54% from 52.7% in April, though cost surges driven by inflation posed significant headwinds. The Eurozone PMI dropped to 47.5% from 48.8%. India continued to demonstrate resilience: its May manufacturing PMI reached 55%, a three-month high, fueled by robust domestic demand, infrastructure spending, and new business growth. China's new export orders index came in at 48.6% in May, down 1.7 percentage points MoM, reflecting some weakening in export demand. 2. Overseas supply continues to decline, particularly evident in the Middle East World Steel Association data shows global crude steel production fell 1.9% YoY to 153.4 million mt in April 2026. Excluding China, output in the rest of the world slid 4.25% MoM, with production schedule paces diverging significantly across regions. Among markets outside China, India and Vietnam maintained high production levels, mainly benefiting from the structural ramp-up dividends brought by new capacity commissioning. Meanwhile, the US and Germany also stood out in April: the US was directly boosted by seasonal Q2 production schedule expansions in high-end manufacturing sectors such as automobiles, while Germany's four consecutive months of production rebound essentially reflected a strategic inventory build by steel mills in response to raw material price fluctuations. In contrast, Middle East production continued its steep YoY plunge during the month, mainly attributable to wartime energy controls and systemic logistical paralysis triggered by the US-Iran conflict and the full closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Overall, Middle East output remains in contraction. As original recipient countries face a lack of stable supply sources, coupled with the digestion of previous low-priced resources, China's steel export orders may encounter structural opportunities. Figure 1 – Global Crude Steel Production by Region Source: SMM 3. Price advantage remains notable, but Southeast Asian markets show price-cutting behavior to seize market share As of June 5, 2026, HRC export quotations (FOB) from India, Turkey, and the CIS stood at $550/mt, $645/mt, and $535/mt, respectively, while China's HRC export quotation (FOB) was $501/mt. China's HRC export quotations currently stand at discounts of -$49/mt, -$144/mt, and -$34/mt against these countries, keeping its steel export price advantage distinct. Recently, however, Southeast Asia entered its off-season; with domestic demand unable to support elevated prices, there are signs of price reductions to capture orders from the international market and disperse domestic pressures. The price spread between China and Southeast Asia has narrowed somewhat. Figure 2 – HRC Quotations in Key Global Markets Source: SMM 4. Export orders dropped notably in May, with a related slowdown after concentrated procurement According to SMM's latest survey of steel mill export schedules, planned HRC exports this month stand at 1.03 million mt, roughly steady compared with actual exports last month. SMM steel export order data indicates that, affected by holidays, export orders in May declined noticeably from April on a MoM basis. Orders for both flat products and long products slipped, signaling that overseas buyers have slowed their procurement pace after the earlier round of concentrated procurement. Figure 3 – SMM Steel Export Order Volumes Source: SMM 5. HRC faced the most cases entering the enforcement stage in May After the concentrated final rulings of anti-dumping cases in April, anti-dumping cases decreased somewhat in May, involving products including HRC, coiled rebar, section steel, and steel pipes. Specific cases and their affected volumes are shown in the table below: Table – New Anti-Dumping Cases in May Source: SMM Taking all factors into consideration, as the new export orders index narrows somewhat, Southeast Asian markets cut prices to compete for orders, and the significant contraction in export order volumes over the previous two months gradually feeds through to the shipment stage, the cushioning effect from earlier orders will weaken considerably. SMM expects that actual total steel exports in June will face some downward pressure. At the same time, as overseas supply of previously low-priced materials is absorbed and Chinese prices remain competitive, domestic export orders may show a bottoming-out recovery trend. Recent feedback from the Southeast Asian market also indicates new procurement demand for semi-finished products. Figure 4 – Steel Exports and Forecast, 2024-2026 Source: SMM Disclaimer on Data Sources: Except for publicly available information, all other data herein are processed and derived by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models. The content is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. Note: This article is an original work published on this official account. For requests regarding reproduction, whitelist access, cooperation, or other matters, please contact us. Without permission, the content shall not be reproduced, modified, used, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, disseminated, or otherwise disclosed to third parties or licensed for third-party use. 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Customs data show that China's cumulative PV product exports from January to April 2026 were up about 43% YoY, as foreign demand remained strong despite the cancellation of export tax rebates for PV products from April 1. Especially in the Southeast Asian market, in April this year, monthly module exports were up 267% YoY. Industry insiders believe that global new PV installations will remain above 500 GW in 2026, and that, while seizing the global new energy transition, China's PV enterprises are accelerating technological upgrades and structural optimization to achieve a shift from scale expansion to quality and efficiency improvement.

SMM, June 3 — According to customs data, China's cadmium telluride exports have risen for three consecutive months. After reaching 48 tonnes in February, export volumes climbed to 64 tonnes in March and further surged to 80 tonnes in April. Market participants noted that this increase in export volumes is well reflected in the persistently rising domestic tellurium prices.

Multiple Factors Converge to Drive Tellurium Prices Gradually Higher

SMM June 3 news: According to customs data, China's cadmium telluride (CdTe) exports showed a continuous upward trend over the past three months. Following exports of 48 mt in February, exports rose to 64 mt in March and further climbed to 80 mt in April. Market participants noted that the increase in exports was well reflected in the continuous rise of domestic tellurium prices. Market participants stated that the core reason for tellurium price increases remained on the supply side, where China maintained a highly monopolistic position with global supply being extremely concentrated. Demand side, multi-sector resonance drove steady demand growth, particularly as summer approached and the peak season for thermoelectric cooling modules arrived, boosting end-user purchasing demand for tellurium. This year, large overseas end-users such as First Solar continued to expand CdTe thin-film module capacity, providing strong long-term support for global tellurium raw material demand. Additionally, AI data center construction would also highly likely trigger thermoelectric cooling demand. As AI computing chip power consumption continued to climb, bismuth telluride thermoelectric cooling modules became a key thermal management solution, inevitably driving structural growth in tellurium demand. In the short term, China's export controls showed no signs of easing. Although CdTe exports were on an upward trend, the likelihood of further significant increases was relatively small. Meanwhile, downstream CdTe PV and AI thermoelectric demand continued to accelerate in release, and the tight balance in tellurium supply-demand dynamics would most likely persist, with prices expected to stay high or even continue to rise. Risk factors to watch include: whether the recovery rate of tellurium as a by-product of copper mine improves, and progress in ex-China alternative capacity (such as tellurium recycling technology).

[SMM Chrome Daily Review: Limited Inquiries and Sluggish Transactions, Chrome Market in the Doldrums] June 1, 2026: The ferrochrome and chrome ore market fluctuated slightly...

Around May 23, 2026, import and export data for cobalt and lithium battery industry chain-related products in April were released in a concentrated manner. Data showed that China's spodumene imports in April reached 758,000 mt in physical content, down 9.5% MoM and up 21.7% YoY. Lithium carbonate imports, China imported 32,650 mt of lithium carbonate in April, up 9% MoM and up 15% YoY.......SMM compiled the import and export data for battery materials, as detailed below: Upstream Lithium Concentrates In April 2026, China's spodumene imports reached 758,000 mt in physical content, down 9.5% MoM and up 21.7% YoY, equivalent to approximately 63,000 mt of LCE. Customs data showed that April spodumene imports pulled back MoM from March, reaching 758,000 mt in physical content. By source country, Australian ore port arrivals returned to a relatively normal level, with over 350,000 mt arriving this month, up 38.9% MoM; Zimbabwe's earlier shipments arrived at port this month at 102,000 mt, down 9.2% MoM; South Africa and Nigeria saw some contraction in monthly port arrivals, while ore from Mali had almost no notable port arrivals this month due to shipping schedule impacts. Notably, spodumene powder sold by Brazil in early 2026 arrived at port this month, driving a significant increase in port arrivals from this country. Additionally, after SMM screening, the month's incoming ore was equivalent to 63,000 mt of LCE. Among the incoming ore, lithium concentrates accounted for 67%, edging down MoM, mainly because apart from Australia , ore from other source countries contained some relatively low-grade ore. Source: China Customs, compiled by SMM Spodumene concentrates (CIF China) spot pricing, according to SMM spot pricing, spodumene concentrates (CIF China) spot prices fluctuated upward in April. As of April 30, spodumene concentrates (CIF China) spot prices rose to $2,540/mt, up $221/mt from the month-end price of $2,313/mt in March, a gain of 9.81%. According to SMM, lithium carbonate prices continued to rise in April, and spodumene concentrates prices rose in tandem with salt prices, with gains exceeding those of lithium carbonate itself, causing non-integrated enterprises that purchase externally spodumene concentrates to suffer losses, with spot profitability remaining in deficit. In April, spot circulation of lepidolite concentrates relatively eased. Meanwhile, as lithium carbonate prices rose, processing fees for non-integrated enterprises also increased accordingly, preserving a certain profit margin for their processing operations and enabling these enterprises to achieve spot profitability. However, recently, spodumene concentrates prices adjusted in tandem with lithium carbonate price fluctuations, and the price center shifted downward. According to SMM's latest findings, disrupted by rumors of production resumptions at Jiangxi mines this week, lithium carbonate futures and spot prices declined, further dragging down the overall price center. Currently, lithium mines showed a weak willingness to make shipments, and transactions were mostly concentrated between traders and buyers. Port lithium ore inventory continued to decline. Going forward, attention should still be paid to the potential tight lithium ore supply triggered by high operating rates in the lithium chemicals industry. Lithium ore prices were expected to continue to hold up well. Lithium Carbonate According to customs data, China imported 32,650 mt of lithium carbonate in April, up 9% MoM and up 15% YoY. Of this, 21,000 mt was imported from Chile (65% of total imports), 9,555 mt from Argentina (29%), and 1,100 mt from Indonesia (3%). From January to April, China's cumulative lithium carbonate imports reached 116,000 mt, up 47% YoY cumulatively. In April, China exported 370 mt of lithium carbonate, down 17% MoM and down 50% YoY. From January to April, China's cumulative lithium carbonate exports totaled 1,886 mt, up 7% YoY cumulatively. In April, China imported 17,942 mt of lithium sulfate, up 9% MoM and up 296% YoY. From January to April, China's cumulative lithium sulfate imports reached 58,900 mt, up 121% YoY cumulatively. According to SMM spot quotes, spot lithium carbonate prices generally trended upward in April. As of April 30, the spot lithium carbonate price rose to 177,000 yuan/mt, up 14,000 yuan/mt from 163,000 yuan/mt on March 31, a gain of 8.59%. According to SMM analysis, China's lithium carbonate prices followed a "V-shaped" trend in April, first declining then rising, with the monthly average price up 6% MoM. In the first ten days, geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East intensified global risk-averse sentiment, causing non-ferrous metals and lithium carbonate prices to fluctuate downward. In the mid-to-late period, driven by Zimbabwe's export ban, Jiangxi mine license renewals, and rising costs, prices began to rebound and fluctuate upward, with the price center shifting notably higher by month-end. Upstream and downstream purchasing remained stagnant, with the psychological price spread widening week by week. Upstream producers held prices firm and held back from selling, maintaining high offer prices, while downstream buyers made just-in-time procurement only, with psychological price levels concentrated at 155,000-175,000 yuan/mt, restocking on dips only when prices fell rapidly. In April, spot battery-grade lithium carbonate prices dropped to around 155,500 yuan/mt in the first ten days, then rallied all the way to 177,000 yuan/mt by month-end. As of May 29, domestic spot battery-grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 174,000-181,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 177,500 yuan/mt. Lithium Hydroxide According to customs data, in April 2026, China imported 6,689 mt of lithium hydroxide, up 9% MoM and up four times YoY. Of this, 2,252 mt were imported from South Korea, accounting for 34% of total imports; 1,706 mt came from Indonesia, accounting for approximately 25% of imports; and the remaining 40% came from Australia and Chile. In April, China exported 5,535 mt of lithium hydroxide, up 76% MoM and up 31% YoY, of which 3,915 mt were exported to South Korea and 864 mt to Japan. Continued sluggish ternary cathode material output outside China limited the absorption capacity for lithium hydroxide in markets outside China, resulting in a slight surplus in markets outside China, which in turn widened the price spread between domestic and overseas markets. Meanwhile, as suppliers outside China had previously signed long-term supply agreements with domestic traders, they were able to continuously dump lithium hydroxide into the Chinese market. Under the combined effect of these factors, the trade pattern of lithium hydroxide continued to reverse (shifting from net exports to net imports). Source: China Customs, compiled by SMM Battery Materials LiPF6 According to China Customs data, in April 2026, China's cumulative LiPF6 exports totaled approximately 868 mt, down approximately 80.9% MoM, while cumulative imports were approximately 96 mt. Export side, China's LiPF6 exports in April 2026 were approximately 868 mt, down approximately 80.9% MoM from March and down approximately 33.2% YoY. Specifically, as the LiPF6 export VAT rebate policy was officially abolished starting April 1, 2026, enterprises rushed to export in advance in March, and electrolyte enterprises outside China built up certain inventory, leading to MoM declines in China's exports to multiple major destination countries in April. Exports to Poland were 337.5 mt (down approximately 80.4% MoM), South Korea 81.804 mt (down approximately 92.56% MoM), Czech Republic 150 mt (down approximately 67.43% MoM), and the US 101.908 mt (down approximately 61.7% MoM). Only exports to Japan increased — 191.37 mt (up approximately 50.77% MoM). Artificial Graphite In April 2026, China's artificial graphite imports were 757 mt, up 12.4% MoM and down 32.9% YoY. Average import price side, in April 2026, the average import price of artificial graphite in China was 75,941 yuan/mt, up 23.1% MoM and up 14.6% YoY. In April 2026, China's artificial graphite exports totaled 45,895 mt, up 22.3% MoM but down 21% YoY. In terms of average export price, in April 2026, the average export price of China's artificial graphite was 9,214 yuan/mt, down 6.6% MoM but up 0.26% YoY. Exports from the top five exporting provinces rose 21% MoM from the previous month, with two provinces seeing export volume increases of over 35% MoM, and another province recording a 20% MoM increase. Import market, orders from downstream power battery enterprises in China gradually recovered in April. Combined with the phased tightness in spot capacity of leading anode enterprises, restocking demand was released, boosting artificial graphite imports to rebound from weakness on a MoM basis. However, import volumes remained down YoY, primarily because China's anode industry had ample overall capacity with supply still in surplus, domestic self-sufficiency continued to strengthen, and the industry's reliance on imported raw materials and finished products steadily declined. Flake Graphite In April 2026, China's flake graphite imports totaled 3,178 mt, down 19% MoM and down 45% YoY. Data source: China Customs, SMM In April 2026, China's flake graphite exports totaled 4,093 mt, down 50% MoM and down 54% YoY. Export market, the flake graphite export tax rebate policy was officially canceled this month, directly squeezing profit margins for foreign trade enterprises and significantly dampening overall export willingness. Meanwhile, the approval pace for flake graphite export licenses slowed down, hindering foreign trade shipments processes. Coupled with weak ex-China end-use demand, multiple bearish factors combined to directly drive a sharp decline in industry export volumes. The import market also continued to weaken. Goods originally intended for exports shifted to domestic sales circulation, with increasingly abundant local supply sources in China. Market enthusiasm for import procurement was insufficient, ultimately causing imports to decline in tandem this month. Phosphate Ore On May 20, 2026, according to customs data, China's phosphate ore imports totaled 207,000 mt in April 2026. April imports rose 13.5% from 182,000 mt in March. Total import value in April was $19.741 million, up 35.7% MoM from $14.552 million in March. The average unit price was $95.5/mt, up 19.6% from $79.9/mt in March. Import commentary: In May, Egypt's phosphate ore exports faced "policy tightening and weakening demand."On May 13, Egypt's Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources announced that it would no longer sign any new phosphate ore export contracts. Previously, Egyptian Prime Minister Mustafa Madbouly stated clearly at a meeting on May 10 that the government was pushing for a transition from raw material exports to the manufacturing of high-value-added products such as phosphate fertiliser. Already signed long-term contracts would not be affected. This is expected to push up import prices and may affect imports. Cobalt Cobalt Hydrometallurgy Intermediate Products In April 2026, China's cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products imports were approximately 1,247 mt in physical content, down 26% MoM and down 98% YoY. Among them, imports from the DRC were approximately 945 mt in physical content, down 43% MoM and down 98% YoY. In April 2026, the average import price of China's cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products was $17,187/mt in physical content, up 2.63% MoM. It was learned that most miners had completed the Q4 2025 quota approvals, but the Q1 2026 quota approvals slowed down again due to sampling, detection and other procedural issues. In addition, transportation capacity in the DRC was tight. Fleets, driven by economic considerations, prioritised the transport of oil products and chemicals that were in production shortage, followed by other metals with shorter turnover cycles, and cobalt among non-ferrous metals came last, meaning cobalt faced significant transportation capacity issues. Constrained by the above factors, miners mainly focused on building in-transit inventory and had not yet arranged concentrated vessel bookings, and the arrival of large batches of intermediate products at ports may continue to be delayed. Unwrought Cobalt In April 2026, China's unwrought cobalt imports were approximately 1,334 mt, up 39% MoM and up 59% YoY. In April, refined cobalt imports mainly came from Indonesia, Russia, and Madagascar, with imports of 462 mt, 457 mt, and 182 mt respectively. The main reason for the increase this month was that domestic smelters lacked intermediate product raw materials and imported cobalt slabs and cobalt briquettes for re-dissolution to ensure normal production. In terms of average import prices, the average import price of China's unwrought cobalt in April 2026 was $52,724/mt, up 4.72% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to April 2026 totalled 5,916 mt, up 153% YoY cumulatively. Export side, China's unwrought cobalt exports in April 2026 were approximately 218 mt, down 47% MoM and down 95% YoY. By country, China's exports to the US dropped significantly, with April exports to the US at 35 mt, down 87.5% MoM. The main reason was that demand for alloy-grade refined cobalt in the US pulled back in April, and ex-China branded refined cobalt was already sufficient to meet regional demand, with some refined cobalt traders redirecting their destinations from the US back to China. Average export price, the average export price of China's unwrought cobalt in April 2026 was $54,590/mt, up 5.80% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to April 2026 totaled 1,792 mt, down 76% YoY.

According to Chinese customs data, in April 2026, China imported 6,689 tonnes of lithium hydroxide, up 9% month-on-month and fourfold year-on-year. Among this, 2,252 tonnes came from South Korea, accounting for 34% of total imports; 1,706 tonnes from Indonesia, representing about 25%; and the remaining 40% from Australia and Chile. In April, China exported 5,535 tonnes of lithium hydroxide, an increase of 76% month-on-month and 31% year-on-year. Of this, 3,915 tonnes were exported to South Korea and 864 tonnes to Japan. Ongoing weak output of overseas ternary cathode materials has limited their ability to absorb offshore lithium hydroxide, leading to a modest oversupply in overseas markets and widening the price gap between domestic and international markets. At the same time, due to previously signed long-term supply agreements between overseas holders and Chinese traders, overseas holders have been able to continuously dump lithium hydroxide into the Chinese market. Taken together, these factors have driven a sustained reversal in the lithium hydroxide trade pattern (from net export to net import).