SMM May 6 News: Metal market: From May 1 to May 5, China was on the Labour Day holiday, with the domestic market closed and trading suspended. Overseas base metals generally rose during the Labour Day holiday, with LME zinc being the only decliner, down 0.12%. LME aluminum led the gains with a 2.69% increase, while LME tin and LME nickel both rose over 1%, with LME tin up 1.7% and LME nickel up 1.26%. Other metals gained less than 1%. The London Metal Exchange (LME) was closed on May 4 due to the UK Early May Bank Holiday and resumed trading on May 5. Precious metals: COMEX gold and COMEX silver both fell, with COMEX gold down 1.47% and COMEX silver down 1.3%. As of 6:38 AM on May 6, overnight closing prices Macro front China: [China Bulk Commodity Index Continued to Rise in April, Market Operations Stable and Improving] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the April China Bulk Commodity Price Index on May 5. In terms of index performance, driven by improved supply and demand in some domestic industries and external input factors, the index continued to rise in April, though the increase narrowed MoM, indicating that the bulk commodity market remained generally stable and continued its positive development trend. The China Bulk Commodity Price Index stood at 132.1 points in April, up 1.7% MoM and up 20.2% YoY. Among the 50 bulk commodities monitored by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, 38 saw price increases MoM in April. Among them, paraxylene, methanol, and polypropylene led the gains, up 22.4%, 14.5%, and 11.8% MoM respectively. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP) [National Road Traffic Generally Smooth and Orderly on Day 4 of Labour Day Holiday] According to the Traffic Management Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security, on the fourth day of the Labour Day holiday, various regions had successively entered the return travel peak, with traffic volumes on major national highways and provincial/national trunk roads generally fluctuating at highs. Local public security traffic management departments strengthened order control, strictly investigated prominent violations, enhanced emergency response, and widely disseminated safety reminders to ensure smooth and safe road traffic. As of 18:00, except for congestion and slow traffic on individual road sections due to excessive traffic volume and minor scraping accidents, traffic on major national trunk roads was generally smooth and orderly, with no prolonged or widespread traffic congestion. May 5 was the last day of the Labour Day holiday, and various regions were expected to see the peak of return travel, with traffic volumes on highways and provincial/national trunk roads expected to fluctuate at highs. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP) [Guangzhou Property Market "Sui Eight Measures" Implemented: Queues Return at Sales Offices, Second-hand Housing Online Signings Exceeded 10,000 Units for Two Consecutive Months] Leveraging the policy dividends of the "Sui Eight Measures," Guangzhou's real estate market started strong during this year's Labour Day holiday. According to incomplete statistics from Guangzhou Centaline Property, from May 1-2, cumulative average project visits for new homes in Guangzhou grew 12% YoY, cumulative average project subscriptions grew 37% YoY, and transaction conversion rates improved steadily compared to the same period last year. The second-hand housing market also maintained an active trend, with cumulative property viewings exceeding 7,000 visits and transactions exceeding 280 units during the same period, up 37% and 11% respectively from the two days before the holiday. On the first day of the Labour Day holiday, some new projects even saw queues at entrances. Notably, before the new policy was implemented, Guangzhou's second-hand housing market had already stabilized and recovered, with monthly online signing volumes staying above 10,000 units for two consecutive months. Data from the Guangzhou Real Estate Agency Association showed that in April, second-hand residential online signings in Guangzhou totaled 10,426 units and 1.0406 million m² in area, up 4.84% and 1.47% YoY respectively. (Jin10 Data APP) [Cui Dongshui: China's Share of Global BEV Market at 56% in 2026] Cui Dongshui, Secretary General of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), stated that global auto sales reached 22.4 million units from January to March 2026, with NEV sales reaching 4.53 million units. The NEV share from January to March 2026 reached 20.2%, with BEVs accounting for 13.8%, PHEVs at 6.4%, and HEVs performing well at 7.2%. China's share in the global BEV market remained relatively stable, at around 63% from 2023 to 2025; in 2026, China's share in the global BEV market was 56%, with China's BEV performance temporarily weaker due to beginning-of-year factors. China's share in the global PHEV market was far ahead. In 2025, China's share in the global PHEV market reached an ultra-high level of 76.4%, and in 2026, China's share in the global PHEV market reached a high level of 73%, demonstrating China's exceptionally strong performance in the global PHEV market. (Jin10 Data APP) [Indonesia Plans to Impose Export Tax and Windfall Tax on Coal and Nickel to Ease Subsidy Pressure] Indonesia plans to impose export taxes and windfall taxes on coal and nickel as one of the measures to offset growing subsidy costs in the national budget. Indonesian Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said the proposed measures are still under discussion with the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. "Discussions with the Energy Ministry are ongoing, but what is clear is that the related revenue will be sufficient to help bridge the subsidy gap." Purbaya noted that coal and nickel exports had not previously been subject to export taxes, creating regulatory loopholes that could foster under-invoicing and smuggling, while also limiting customs authorities' ability to inspect goods before shipment. (Wallstreetcn) US dollar: During China's Labour Day holiday, the US dollar index generally showed a volatile upward trend. As of the overnight close on May 6, the US dollar index gained 0.41% over the holiday. Bond traders are increasing bets that the US Fed's next policy move could be a rate hike rather than a cut. Swap contracts linked to central bank rate decisions now show that the market expects a greater than 50% probability of the US Fed raising rates before next April, ahead of any rate cut. An increasing number of traders are also building positions to hedge against the rising probability of a rate hike before year-end. This shift in market sentiment comes as policymakers appear increasingly divided on the interest rate outlook. Lawrence Gillum, chief fixed income strategist at LPL Financial, believes that the possibility of interest rate cuts this year still exists, but will gradually diminish as the Iran conflict drags on. He said: "Without question, the road ahead for Warsh will be challenging." (Jin10 Data APP) New York Fed President Williams publicly stated on Monday that as long as inflation pulls back toward the US Fed's 2% target as expected, the US Fed will eventually need to cut interest rates. However, due to inflation running higher than expected this year, the timing of rate cuts has been forced to delay, though the overall policy direction has not fundamentally changed. Williams told reporters after a speech in New York on Monday: "As inflation comes down, at some point we will need to cut interest rates to match fundamentals. Inflation this year has been higher than previously expected, and in my view, this only delays the timing of rate cuts and does not change the overall policy logic." Last week, the US Fed decided to keep the benchmark rate unchanged, but internal policy divisions were highlighted, with three officials opposing the easing bias implied in the meeting statement, preferring more neutral language to signal that rates could move in either direction. Regarding the disputed language, Williams was clear: he fully endorsed the current statement, believing that based on day-to-day economic data, there was no sufficient reason to support a rate hike in the near term. (Jin10 Data) Former New York Fed President Dudley said that Powell's decision to remain as a Fed governor after stepping down as Fed Chairman will help reassure Wall Street and the public at a time when President Trump is pressuring for lower interest rates. "The Fed has been under relentless attack from the president, and its independence has been questioned," Dudley said. "Powell believes that his continued presence at the Fed will actually strengthen the perception of Fed independence. I think it's a wise move for him to stay on if he's willing." Powell's term as a Fed governor runs until 2028, and his choice to remain on the board after stepping down as chairman on May 15 is uncommon in Fed history. Trump's nominee Warsh has made the case for supporting the rate cuts the president seeks. But traders are no longer betting on any rate cuts this year, and Dudley also said the case for monetary easing is "very thin." (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June is 95.2%, with a 4.8% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut. The probability of holding rates unchanged through July is 92.2%, with a 7.7% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut and a 0.2% probability of a cumulative 50 bps cut. The probability of holding rates unchanged through September is 86.1%, with a 13.2% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut and a 0.6% probability of a cumulative 50 bps cut. (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: According to ECB Governing Council member Kazimir, the ECB is very likely to raise rates at its next meeting in June. Kazimir said that tightening policy in June is "almost inevitable" given the need to address broad price increases and slowing eurozone economic growth. An ECB survey showed that professional forecasters expect inflation at 2.7% this year, pulling back to 2.1% in 2027 and 2% in 2028. (Wallstreetcn APP) Bank of France Governor and ECB Governing Council member Villeroy said the ECB must be cautious and ready to act on rates if inflation spreads beyond oil price increases. Villeroy noted that before tightening monetary policy, a "critical mass of data" on core inflation, wages, and enterprise and consumer expectations for price increases is needed. He warned that if France fails to meet its deficit targets, it will face further increases in financing costs, affecting households, enterprises, and economic growth. (Wallstreetcn) Former Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Haruhiko said in an interview published in the Yomiuri Shimbun on Saturday that the BOJ has achieved its 2% inflation target and Japan does not need fiscal expansion or monetary easing. Kuroda said that given the coexistence of inflation and economic slowdown risks, the BOJ's decision not to raise rates on April 28 was the right one. (Source: Wallstreetcn APP) Data: This week, on the China front, data including China's April foreign exchange reserves (TBD) and China's April RatingDog Services PMI will be released; on the US front, data including US April ADP employment, US April Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, US April Challenger enterprise layoffs, US April Challenger enterprise layoffs, US March construction spending MoM, and US April NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations will be released; on the Eurozone front, data including Eurozone April Services PMI final, Eurozone March PPI MoM, and Eurozone March retail sales MoM will be released; on the France front, data including France March industrial output MoM, France April Services PMI final, and France March trade balance will be released; Germany April Services PMI final, UK April Services PMI final, and Switzerland April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate will also be released. In addition, 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will deliver a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy, and 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a panel discussion at a conference. Crude oil: Oil prices on both exchanges experienced volatile swings during the holiday, with an overall downward trend. As of the overnight close on May 6, WTI fell 2.59% and Brent fell 0.5%. Crude oil futures prices continued to show a tug-of-war pattern as the market awaited clarity on the prospects for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Analyst Nikos Tsabralas said in a report that a renewed outbreak of hostilities could undermine the ceasefire agreement, thereby maintaining the risk premium. He added that as the conflict continues, crude oil prices are still poised to reach new highs, but the prolonged energy shock has heightened the risk of demand destruction, which "could ultimately cause the crude oil rally to lose support." (Source: Jin10 Data APP) Saudi Aramco cut the June official selling price for Arab Light crude to Asia by $4/barrel to a premium of $15.5 over the regional benchmark, a smaller reduction than the market expectation of $8/barrel. The price hit a record high in May, and despite the cut, the June premium remains the second highest on record. With the Strait of Hormuz largely closed, export channels for Gulf oil-producing nations have been severely disrupted. Saudi Arabia is one of the few countries still able to export crude via pipeline through the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Traders noted that Saudi Aramco's official selling prices primarily apply to crude loaded at Ras Tanura port in the Persian Gulf, and supply from Yanbu may incur additional costs. Saudi Aramco uses Dubai and Oman benchmark pricing, and since the Middle East war caused regional benchmark crude shortages, volatility in these two indices intensified, with April pulling back from March highs. (Jinshi Data APP) On May 1, according to CCTV citing Iranian media reports on Friday, May 1 local time, Iran submitted its latest negotiation proposal text to Pakistan on Thursday, with Pakistan serving as an intermediary for negotiations with the US. Later, according to CCTV citing US media, Pakistani officials said that Iran's latest negotiation proposal had been forwarded to US officials. After the news broke, crude oil prices reacted notably, with WTI falling more than 2% intraday and Brent dropping over 1% intraday. However, just after the weekend, on May 4, tensions between the US and Iran resurfaced, as the two countries once again vied for dominance over the Strait of Hormuz. According to CCTV News, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated on social media on May 5 local time that the various incidents in the Strait of Hormuz clearly demonstrated that political crises cannot be resolved through military means. As negotiations made progress under Pakistan's active mediation, the US should be wary of being dragged into a quagmire again by those with ulterior motives. The UAE should also be vigilant. The "Freedom Plan" is a "Deadlock Plan." On May 3, US President Trump announced the launch of an operation called the "Freedom Plan" to "guide" stranded vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz. The renewed escalation of US-Iran tensions drove crude oil prices significantly higher on May 4, with WTI rising 3.14% and Brent rising 5.45%. Meanwhile, it is important to note that as the Strait of Hormuz blockade continued, international oil majors issued stern warnings: commercial inventory, strategic reserves, and crude oil stored on vessels were being depleted at an accelerating pace, while the market had yet to feel the full impact of this energy crisis. The supply disruption triggered by the Strait of Hormuz blockade had forced global markets to simultaneously draw on three types of reserve resources — commercial inventory, national strategic petroleum reserves, and floating inventory previously stored on tankers. ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips delivered highly consistent messages this week, all pointing out that the three types of buffer resources mentioned above were being rapidly depleted. Eimear Bonner's wording was particularly direct: existing buffers were "extremely limited." This means that if the strait blockade persists, global markets will face a genuine supply gap rather than merely relying on reserves to bridge the shortfall. The impact of this crisis had spread from Southeast Asia to Europe, with energy costs rising significantly across multiple regions. Although the US was relatively cushioned to some extent, upward pressure on oil prices was equally evident. (Wallstreetcn) International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Birol reiterated on Thursday that the world was facing the largest energy crisis in history due to supply disruptions caused by the conflict with Iran. Birol stated at a conference in Paris: "The oil market and the natural gas market are going through enormous difficulties. The last time I checked, oil prices were above $120, which is putting enormous pressure on many countries. Our world is facing major economic and energy challenges." (Jin Shi Data APP) Related Reading:

SMM April 27 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals rose across the board. SHFE copper was up 0.38%, SHFE aluminum up 0.3%, SHFE lead up 0.3%, SHFE zinc up 0.7%, SHFE tin up 0.48%, and SHFE nickel up 2.62%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.4%, the most-traded alumina contract rose 3.36%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 2.75%, the most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.29%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures fell 4.47%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was flat at 786 yuan/mt, rebar edged up, hot-rolled coil rose 0.15%, and stainless steel rose 1.26%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.23%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.44%. Overseas market base metals: as of 11:43, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper was up 0.51%, LME aluminum up 0.95%, LME lead up 0.1%, LME zinc up 0.58%, LME tin edged down, and LME nickel was up 0.71%. Precious metals: as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.11% and COMEX silver fell 0.38%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.12%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.08%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 1.21%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 1.52%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.03% to 2,209.8 points. As of 11:43 on April 27, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 280 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,085 yuan/mt, up 290 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,985 yuan/mt, up 290 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: After the weekend, Guangdong inventory declined again, mainly due to fewer arrivals and some manufacturers stockpiling ahead of the holiday... Macro front China: [NBS: January-March profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises rose 15.5% YoY; non-ferrous sector profits surged 116.7% YoY] NBS data showed that from January to March, total profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises reached 1.696 trillion yuan, up 15.5% YoY. From January to March, among above-scale industrial enterprises, state-controlled enterprises posted profits of 619.61 billion yuan (up 10.1% YoY), joint-stock enterprises 1.305 trillion yuan (up 20.9%), foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises 383.73 billion yuan (up 1.2%), and private enterprises 430.53 billion yuan (up 25.4%). Yu Weining, Chief Statistician of the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), interpreted the industrial enterprise profit data for January–March 2026: In Q1, facing a complex economic environment, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council promptly stepped up macro regulation efforts and proactively implemented more active and effective macro policies. The industrial economy steadily rebounded, profits of above-designated-size industrial enterprises grew at a faster pace, profits in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing grew rapidly, profits in raw material manufacturing posted double-digit growth, and the efficiency of industrial enterprises continued to improve. [National Energy Administration: China's Oil and Gas Supply Was Generally Stable and Orderly in Q1] The National Energy Administration held a press conference on April 27 to brief on the national energy situation and development achievements in Q1 2026. Xing Yiteng, Deputy Director of the Development Planning Department of the National Energy Administration, noted that energy security was effectively safeguarded. The impacts of the Venezuela crisis and the US-Israel-Iran conflict on China's energy supply were properly managed. In Q1, China's oil and gas supply was generally stable and orderly, with above-designated-size industrial crude oil and natural gas production up 1.3% and 3.0% YoY, respectively. Raw coal production remained stable despite a relatively high base in the same period last year, with above-designated-size industrial raw coal production up 0.1% YoY. The safety situation in the power sector was stable and improving, with efficient completion of power emergency responses to various natural disasters and successful completion of power supply assurance for the Chinese New Year and the Two Sessions. (Jin10 Data) [PBOC Achieved a Net Withdrawal of 382 Billion Yuan via Reverse Repo Operations] The PBOC conducted 218.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 600 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations matured today, a net withdrawal of 382 billion yuan was achieved. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of 11:43, the US dollar index fell 0.08% to 98.42. Multiple sources revealed that the US Department of Justice was expected to conclude its criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Jerome Powell as early as Friday, thereby ending the standoff that could have delayed the appointment of Powell's successor. Sources said senior DOJ officials recently contacted several senators, including Republican Senator Tom Tillis, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, informing them of plans to drop the investigation into alleged cost overruns in the renovation of the US Fed's Washington headquarters and refer the matter to the Fed's internal watchdog. Powell's term is set to expire next month, but he indicated in March that he would remain in office until Trump's nominee for Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, is confirmed. According to the CME "Fed Watch" tool, the probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in April was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by June was 4.7%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 95.3%. (Jin10 Data) Data: Germany's May GfK Consumer Confidence Index, the UK's April CBI Retail Sales Balance, and the US April Dallas Fed Business Activity Index are scheduled for release today. Crude oil: As of 11:43, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 0.85% and Brent up 1.11%. Crude oil futures rose at the start of Monday's session as peace talks between the US and Iran reached an impasse, while oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained limited, keeping global oil supply under sustained pressure. Crude oil futures prices swung wildly recently, as traders had to predict not only when oil exports from the Persian Gulf would resume, but also how long it would take for production in the region to recover to pre-war levels. Trump said on Sunday that Iran was facing growing domestic pressure due to its inability to export oil, which could cause long-term damage to its energy export infrastructure. Goldman Sachs analysts said on Sunday that they had pushed back their expectations for the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal export levels from mid-May to late June. Meanwhile, they raised their Q4 WTI crude oil price expectations from $75 per barrel to $83 per barrel. (Jin10 Data) Citi raised its forecast for the average Brent crude oil price for the remainder of 2026 on Sunday evening local time, stating that if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continued to be disrupted through the end of June, oil prices could rise to $150 per barrel. The bank raised its base-case average price forecasts for Brent crude oil in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2026 to $110, $95, and $80 per barrel, respectively. Citi also pushed back its expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz from mid-to-late April to the end of May. Citi stated: "Given that significant gaps remain between the two sides on their respective red-line issues, we believe the risks are tilted toward the upside for near-term bullish sentiment and H2 2026 base-case oil price forecasts." In the bullish scenario (30% probability), Citi assumed that oil shipment disruptions would persist through the end of June at a scale similar to the current level of disruption. Under this scenario, Brent prices could surge to $150 per barrel, with Q2 and Q3 2026 averages approaching $130 per barrel, before pulling back to around $100 in Q4. The bank also proposed a "super bullish" scenario in which the Strait of Hormuz remained closed beyond June, noting that this would have severe implications for the share of oil expenditure in both global and US economic output. Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

In modern mining operation systems, the extraction and delivery of iron ore constitute a highly energy-intensive industrial closed loop. By 2026, energy price fluctuations effectively transmit inflationary pressure to the cost structure of iron ore through the following three key physical and economic pathways: First, the impact of diesel costs in the mining and inland transportation segments. Whether in drilling, blasting, and loading during mining operations, transporting ore from pits to crushing stations using heavy-duty mining trucks, or hauling finished ore to ports via diesel locomotives over hundreds of kilometers of railway lines, the entire upstream mining and inland logistics chain is extremely dependent on diesel. As international oil prices surpassed $100 per barrel, diesel's share of overall mine operating costs rose rapidly, significantly increasing cost pressure. Second, the transmission of electricity and natural gas costs in the beneficiation and agglomeration segments. Iron ore resources of different grades vary in processing depth. Lower-grade magnetite requires deep beneficiation processes such as crushing, magnetic separation, and flotation, all of which are highly dependent on electricity. In the process of converting fine-grained iron ore concentrates into pellet or sinter suitable for blast furnace ironmaking, high-temperature roasting above 1,300°C is required in equipment such as chain grates and rotary kilns. This agglomeration segment is extremely dependent on thermal energy from natural gas or coal, resulting in pellet production costs exhibiting very high elasticity to natural gas price changes. Third, low-sulfur fuel oil price fluctuations in the transoceanic shipping segment. As one of the largest dry bulk commodities by global trade volume, the landed cost (CFR/CIF) of iron ore is highly influenced by transportation costs. In March 2026, due to crude oil supply deficits and route diversions triggered by conflicts in the Middle East, global very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) prices surged dramatically by 30% to 60% within a single week. This change fundamentally reshaped the relative competitiveness of iron ore from different producing regions in major consuming markets such as China and Europe. As of mid-April 2026, the global macro energy market is at a critical juncture where deep structural adjustments intersect with geopolitical conflicts. The escalating conflicts in the Middle East have exposed the fragility of global energy supply chains, causing prices of crude oil, natural gas, and alternative energy sources such as coal to experience sharp nonlinear increases that exceeded expectations. The crude oil market has exhibited particularly pronounced sensitivity. Before the outbreak of the conflict, the global crude oil market fundamentals were relatively stable, with Brent crude oil prices hovering between $70 and $77 per barrel during January and early February. However, as the conflict continued to escalate and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted, Brent crude oil futures prices briefly approached $120/barrel in early March. The natural gas market was also significantly impacted. Qatar, a major liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter, saw its core onshore production facility (Ras Laffan gas plant) hit by drone strikes and completely shut down, suspending LNG deliveries. Natural gas prices, including Asia-JKM and Europe-TTF, doubled within two weeks. This non-linear cost surge was highly likely to force some marginal high-cost mines to cut production, thereby contracting the total global iron ore supply and providing strong trend-based support for the forward market price center. II. Differentiated Impact of Energy Price Fluctuations on the Iron Ore Market: A Perspective by Ore Type Every $10 increase in crude oil prices was estimated to raise the per-mt mining cost for large iron ore mines by an average of $0.3, while costs for small mines were expected to increase by approximately $2.85 . High-cost small mines, especially iron ore concentrates producers, were highly vulnerable to cost shocks, and mines producing different product types faced varying degrees of impact. When assessing the impact of energy prices on the iron ore market, a comprehensive analysis across multiple dimensions is required, including the global supply landscape, product mix (lump ore, fines, pellet ore), and mining processes at individual mines. Due to inherent differences constrained by resource endowments, mines exhibited significant divergence in operational resilience and cost vulnerability when facing the same energy inflation cycle. The physical and chemical properties of iron ore fundamentally determine the complexity of its mining and beneficiation processes and energy consumption structure. This structural difference in turn affects each mine's dependence on and price sensitivity to different energy types. Based on ore type, mainstream global iron ore assets can be broadly classified into two categories: direct shipping ore (DSO) hematite and magnetite concentrates. Direct Shipping Ore (DSO) requires only simple physical crushing and screening before being directly loaded for export, without complex beneficiation processes. In terms of production distribution, Australia's Pilbara region is the core production area for global hematite DSO . The region's iron ore reserves are primarily concentrated in the Hamersley Range of Western Australia. Brazil's Carajás mine, operated by Brazilian mining giant Vale, is the world's largest existing iron ore mine. In terms of energy mix, the DSO production process is highly concentrated in open-pit mining, loading, and truck haulage, making its operating costs extremely sensitive to diesel prices. It is worth noting that the Carajás mine relies primarily on hydroelectric power from the Tucuruí Dam, which to some extent buffers its direct exposure to oil price fluctuations. By contrast, mines in Australia's Pilbara region, due to their remote locations and limited power grid access, are more heavily dependent on diesel for mining operations (drilling and blasting, loading, and ultra-heavy truck haulage). Diesel fuel costs account for approximately 15% to 25% of the total operating costs of a typical iron ore mining operation in the Pilbara . For remote mining areas with longer haulage distances, this proportion is even higher. Magnetite assets have mining and processing pathways that are far more dependent on electricity than on fuel . Magnetite must undergo extensive crushing, ball milling, and magnetic separation processes before entering the metallurgical process. Typically, magnetite concentrates require grinding the ore to 32–45 microns to produce high-quality concentrates with low silicon content. The impact of this process on energy consumption is significant. Compared with hematite, magnetite beneficiation and processing consumes approximately 30–40% more energy, but the pellets it produces contain less than 2% silica, resulting in superior final product quality. In terms of processing costs, magnetite processing costs approximately $50–70 per mt, far higher than the $20–30 for hematite. From an energy sensitivity analysis perspective, since the primary energy consumption in magnetite concentrates production is concentrated in the electricity-intensive grinding and magnetic separation processes, direct dependence on diesel is relatively low. The linkage proportion of diesel costs in total costs is estimated at approximately 6–10% . However, this does not mean that magnetite mines can completely avoid energy crises. If the power grid in the region is highly dependent on natural gas or coal for power generation, rising electricity prices would likewise have a significant impact on their cost structure. III. Cost Structure Comparison between China's Mines and the Big Four Miners under the Energy Price Transmission Mechanism Under a scenario where oil prices rise by $30–40 per barrel, the increase in iron ore C1 costs is estimated at approximately $1–3 per mt, corresponding to an increase of 5%–15%. Based on the proportion of diesel costs and the energy transmission mechanism, the most affected are first small mines (diesel accounting for 25%–40% of C1 costs, extremely dependent on long-haul trucks and high stripping ratio equipment), followed by mines such as BHP and FMG that are highly dependent on diesel-powered heavy equipment. Although Rio Tinto's mining operations also rely on diesel, its diversified mining business dilutes the impact to some extent, spreading the average cost of iron ore. Mines like Vale that utilize green electricity for mining operations are relatively resilient to energy prices, but their extensive railway and fleet operations still carry diesel exposure. Domestic mines primarily rely on underground mining and highly electrified mineral processing, so diesel has a relatively moderate impact. Domestic Mines In the cost structure of domestic mine production in China, diesel consumption is mainly concentrated in the open-pit mining stage , particularly in the transportation of ore and overburden by mining trucks, which is the primary use of diesel; underground mining is predominantly powered by electricity, with minimal diesel usage. Meanwhile, due to the high degree of electrification, domestic ore consumes almost no diesel in the mineral processing stage, and diesel costs only affect the mining cost component. In terms of proportion, mining costs typically account for 30%–40% of the full cost of iron ore concentrates, while diesel expenses only account for 15%–20% of mining costs. Based on actual industry consumption estimates, diesel consumption for excavating and transporting one mt of raw ore is approximately 2–3 litres, so the impact of diesel price fluctuations on the overall full cost of domestic mines is relatively limited . Ex-China Mines Compared with ex-China mines, in the global iron ore supply system, the four major miners — BHP, Rio Tinto, Vale, and FMG — collectively contributed approximately 60% of global seaborne iron ore supply. The four companies differ in resource categories, process pathways, infrastructure investment, and energy mix, placing them at distinctly different positions on the cost curve. The core metric for measuring iron ore producer efficiency is C1 cash cost (i.e., the direct production cost from pit to port, excluding capital expenditure, royalties, and freight). BHP BHP's Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) C1 unit cost in FY2025 (ending June 2025) was $17.29 per mt, once again confirmed as the lowest-cost major iron ore producer globally. The core of BHP's cost advantages stems from economies of scale and highly integrated infrastructure. Its Pilbara mining region has five large mines, which together with dedicated rail and port facilities form an integrated supply chain. In 2025, the mines also advanced the full deployment of autonomous haul trucks, further enhancing operational efficiency. However, while automation reduced labour costs, BHP remained highly dependent on diesel, with heavy equipment in the mining, loading, and transportation stages still primarily diesel-powered. Historical data corroborated BHP's sensitivity to oil prices. In FY2022, when oil prices surged due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, WAIO's C1 unit cost rose from $12.98 per mt in the prior year to $15.05 per mt, with one of the key drivers being rising diesel prices, along with ramp-up costs at the South Flank mine. To this end, BHP has been trialing hydrogenated vegetable oil (HVO) as a diesel alternative at its Yandi iron ore mine, aiming to gradually reduce dependence on fossil fuels, though large-scale substitution still requires time. For FY26, BHP provided a WAIO unit cost guidance range of $18.25–19.75 per mt, acknowledging the impact of lagging labor cost inflation effects. FMG (Fortescue) FMG's core operations are located in the Pilbara, the same as BHP, but there are several differences in cost structure. FMG achieved record full-year iron ore shipments of 198.4 million mt in FY2025, with hematite C1 costs falling to $17.99 per wmt — the company's first annual cost reduction since FY2020 — enabling it to maintain its position as the industry's lowest-cost producer. FMG's Iron Bridge magnetite concentrates project (product grade of approximately 67% Fe) is continuing to ramp up, which will improve the product mix while introducing higher electricity consumption, making FMG's overall energy structure more complex. At the energy strategy level, FMG's approach is the most aggressive among the four major miners. The company announced a $2.8 billion partnership agreement with Liebherr to jointly develop zero-emission mining equipment, encompassing battery power systems, with the first autonomous trucks already entering the deployment phase. However, FMG also acknowledged the cost of strategic adjustments — the company decided to shelve its Arizona green hydrogen project and the Gladstone PEM50 project, citing a rollback in US policy support for green energy and slow development of the global green energy market. For now, FMG's diesel exposure is similar in nature to BHP's, and the transmission mechanism of energy price fluctuations to its C1 costs is highly comparable. Vale Vale's energy structure is the most unique among the four major miners, and as a result, it has a distinctly different energy sensitivity compared to the other three. Vale achieved its goal of 100% renewable energy use across all its operations in Brazil in 2023, with electricity sourced from its own hydropower, wind, and solar assets, with a total installed capacity of 2.6 GW. Specifically at the Carajás mine, the operation relies heavily on hydroelectric power generated by the Tucuruí Dam. This means that the electricity costs for Vale's beneficiation, crushing, and conveyor belt transportation processes are not linked to international oil prices, but are closely tied to Brazil's domestic hydropower resources and regulated electricity prices. However, this green power shield cannot fully insulate against the impact of fossil energy price fluctuations. Vale's largest energy consumption item is electricity, followed by diesel. Diesel is primarily used to power ultra-heavy trucks in open-pit mines and railway locomotives connecting Carajás to the ports in Maranhão state. This railway stretches approximately 900 kilometers. In other words, although Vale's electricity costs are largely decoupled from oil prices, whenever diesel prices rise significantly, its massive mining fleet and railway transportation system still experience notable cost pressure. Rio Tinto Compared with the other three mines, Rio Tinto's Pilbara C1 cash cost averages approximately $23.7 per mt, about $5 higher than BHP and FMG. This cost premium has multiple root causes. First, Rio Tinto's Pilbara ore mix is more complex than BHP's, encompassing multiple ore types including Brockman hematite, Marra Mamba blended ore, and Channel Iron Deposits. The varying mining difficulty, moisture content, and beneficiation processing requirements across different ores are significantly different, thereby pushing up average costs. In its 2024 performance guidance, the company explicitly noted that "increased Pilbara mine operating intensity and continued labor and parts inflation in Western Australia" were the primary factors driving costs higher. Second, Rio Tinto simultaneously operates a diversified mineral portfolio including aluminum, copper, and titanium ore. Its scale focus and infrastructure specialization in the iron ore segment are less concentrated than those of BHP and FMG, which to some extent undermines its cost advantages. Differentiation in Energy Price Transmission Among the Big Four Miners Looking at the cost structures of the four companies collectively, the transmission mechanisms of energy price fluctuations among the Big Four miners exhibit clear divergence. BHP and FMG are the most sensitive to oil prices. Both companies have Australian Pilbara hematite DSO as their core assets, with production processes highly dependent on diesel-powered heavy mining equipment. In a scenario where international crude oil prices experience a significant rise (e.g., $30–40 per barrel), based on BHP's historical transmission coefficient from 2022, the C1 costs of both mines could face a direct impact of $1–3 per mt, translating to a cost increase of approximately 5%–15%. Vale's energy exposure presents a "two-segment" structure. In electricity-intensive processes, it has virtually no direct exposure to oil prices; however, the reliance of mining trucks and railway locomotives on diesel still constitutes a non-negligible hidden risk. Furthermore, if drought affects reservoir water levels, its hydropower-dependent electricity costs could also experience an unexpected rise — a unique climate risk that Australian mines do not face. Rio Tinto's energy exposure carries dual attributes of both oil prices and electricity prices. Mining operations in the Pilbara region rely on diesel, while its aluminum and copper mining businesses operating in Canada, Northern Europe, and Mongolia are highly dependent on electricity, creating a composite energy risk exposure at the group level. In a scenario of pure oil price increases, the cost transmission pathway for Rio Tinto's iron ore segment is similar to that of BHP, but its overall degree of impact is slightly lower due to dilution from diversified operations. For small mines, diesel consumption typically accounts for 25% to 40% of their C1 cash operating costs . Small mines generally lack sufficient capital expenditure (CapEx) to build or lease dedicated rail lines. From pit-mouth loading to delivery at the port, their ore is highly dependent on diesel-powered heavy trucks for long-haul road transportation, which amplifies the share of diesel in per-mt costs. Meanwhile, due to deeper ore body burial or weaker grades, higher stripping ratios require moving more waste rock to produce the same weight of iron ore, resulting in higher fuel consumption per unit of output for drilling, blasting, and loading equipment. IV. Rising Transportation Costs from Crude Oil and Shipping Risks Will Have the Most Significant Impact on CFR China Iron Ore Costs From a macro perspective, all four major miners are additionally affected by fluctuations in the Australian dollar/Brazilian real exchange rates against the US dollar. Local currency depreciation can serve as an effective hedge when energy costs rise, and vice versa. This also explains why, during the same energy inflation cycles, C1 costs denominated in US dollars typically do not move fully in sync with crude oil price increases. Furthermore, iron ore must pass through a shipping stage en route to Chinese ports. Rising fuel oil costs directly drive freight rate increases on the C3 (Brazil to China) and C5 (Western Australia to China) routes. At the same time, heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have elevated shipping risks, and surging insurance premiums have simultaneously pushed up ore import costs. The compounding of multiple factors could result in iron ore freight premiums on the relevant routes exceeding $10-15 per mt. In summary, the impact of energy price changes on mine production costs is closely related to the specific product type and the mining equipment used. Large mines are significantly less affected by energy price increases than small and medium-sized mines. In contrast, exchange rate movements and changes in transportation costs are more sensitive to energy prices and also more directly drive fluctuations in overall iron ore prices.

SMM April 17: Metals market: As of the daytime close, most base metals on the domestic market rose, with only SHFE copper and SHFE lead declining together. SHFE copper fell 0.04% and SHFE lead dropped 0.39%. SHFE nickel gained 1.54%, while the remaining metals posted gains of less than 1%. The alumina front-month contract rose 0.64%, and the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 0.06%. In addition, the lithium carbonate front-month contract rose 2.81%, the polysilicon front-month contract gained 0.2%, and the silicon metal front-month contract rose 0.83%. The Europe containerized freight front-month contract surged 6.72% to close at 2,132.3. Ferrous metals mostly rose, with stainless steel leading the gains at 2.2%, while the remaining metals posted gains of less than 1%. Coking coal and coke side, coking coal fell 0.57% and coke dropped 0.15%. Overseas market, as of 15:03, overseas base metals showed mixed performance. LME nickel led the gains at 1.34%, while the % change of the remaining metals fluctuated within 1%. Precious metals, as of 15:03, COMEX gold fell 0.05% and COMEX silver rose 0.04%. In China, SHFE gold dropped 0.56% and SHFE silver fell 1.18%. In addition, the platinum front-month contract fell 2.3% and the palladium front-month contract dropped 2%. Market data as of 15:03 today Macro Front China: [NDRC: This year will focus on launching a series of actions to expand effective investment in areas such as "AI+" infrastructure] The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the morning of April 17 under the series theme of "Getting Off to a Good Start for the 15th Five-Year Plan." Wang Changlin, Deputy Director of the NDRC, stated that this year the focus will be on launching a series of actions to expand effective investment in areas such as "AI+" infrastructure, urban renewal, the national water network, and new-type energy systems, to promote the optimization of supply structure and the expansion of market demand. In terms of institutional and mechanism innovation, comprehensive "soft construction" efforts will be carried out across central government investment projects to foster long-term mechanisms for project construction, implementation, operation, and maintenance. Meanwhile, the national venture capital guidance fund will be leveraged to guide and drive social capital to support technological innovation and the development of emerging industries. Wang Changlin noted that recently, in response to the impact of changes in the international situation on China's oil and gas imports, the government adopted comprehensive measures to effectively ensure sufficient domestic oil product supply and stable market operations, fully demonstrating the achievements of China's new-type energy system development. Going forward, efforts will be made to accelerate the high-quality development of non-fossil energy, coordinate centralized and distributed clean energy development, and make every effort to increase the scale of non-fossil energy power production and consumption. Through the above efforts, it is expected that by 2030, the supply scale of non-fossil energy will grow significantly compared to 2025, and by 2035, it will double compared to 2025. [NDRC: Efforts to Expand Effective Domestic Demand, with a Plan to Formulate the 2026–2030 Implementation Plan for the Strategy of Expanding Domestic Demand] The State Council Information Office held a press conference in the series themed "Getting Off to a Good Start in the 15th Five-Year Plan Period," introducing the relevant situation of promoting high-quality economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Wang Changlin, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated that since the beginning of this year, positive changes had emerged in economic performance, with notable improvements on both the supply and demand sides, better serving as a stabilizer for the global economy, and outperforming the expectations of many institutions and experts in and outside China. Going forward, efforts should focus on five key areas of work. [Pan Gongsheng: Implementing a Moderately Accommodative Monetary Policy and Measures to Boost Consumption] Pan Gongsheng stated that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China will adhere to a domestic demand-driven approach, implement policy measures to boost consumption, vigorously develop the service sector, closely integrate investment in physical assets with investment in human capital, promote productivity growth, accelerate green transformation and sustainable development, unswervingly advance high-level opening-up, and drive high-quality development. The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, support Chinese-style modernization with high-quality financial services, and contribute China's strength to global economic growth. (People's Bank of China) [MIIT and Four Other Departments Jointly Issued the Guidelines for Green Design of Industrial Products (2026 Edition)] MIIT and four other departments jointly issued the Guidelines for Green Design of Industrial Products (2026 Edition). The Guidelines adapt to new changes and requirements in the green and low-carbon development landscape in and outside China, build consensus on green design across industries, and outline 11 key directions, namely long-life design, non-toxic design, lightweight design, energy-saving design, water-saving design, material-saving design, noise reduction design, space-saving design, easy-to-recycle design, reusable design, and zero-carbon design. The Guidelines further closely integrate the 11 key green design directions with practical industry applications, using 15 key industries as typical examples, and refine them into 126 solutions to guide product R&D personnel in practicing green design concepts and methods. (MIIT WeChat Account) [PBOC Achieved a Net Withdrawal of 1.5 Billion Yuan Through Reverse Repo Operations] The PBOC conducted 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 1.5 billion yuan was achieved. This week, the PBOC conducted a total of 3 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations. As 3.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured this week, a net withdrawal of 500 million yuan was achieved. (Jin10 Data) US dollar: As of 15:03, the US dollar index rose 0.04% to 98.24. Data side, the number of initial jobless claims in the US declined last week, indicating that labour market conditions remained stable, even though employers were cautious about hiring new workers as the Middle East conflict cast a shadow over the economy. The latest data showed that US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 fell by 11,000 to 207,000, below market expectations of 215,000. Initial jobless claims this year have remained within the range of 201,000 to 230,000. While layoffs remained relatively low, the oil price shock from the US-Israel war against Iran may have hindered hiring. Economists noted that the labour market had already been in a state of stagnation before the war broke out, attributable to the uncertainty brought by Trump's sweeping import tariffs and mass deportations. Economists said the Middle East conflict was just another layer of uncertainty for enterprises. (Jin10 Data) The chief rates strategist at SEB said that the 10-year US Treasury yield had been closely tracking market reactions to expectations for US Fed policy rate cuts. Further downward revisions in US Fed rate expectations could push the 10-year Treasury yield slightly lower in the near term, but not by much, with yields expected to remain largely within the 4.10%–4.30% range over the coming months. Deutsche Bank expects the US Fed to keep rates unchanged in 2026, compared with its previous forecast of an interest rate cut in September. (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME "FedWatch" tool: the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the US Fed in April was 0.5%, while the probability of holding rates unchanged was 99.5%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the US Fed through June was 1.4%, the probability of holding rates unchanged was 98%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 0.5%. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: The eurozone February seasonally adjusted current account and eurozone February seasonally adjusted trade balance data will be released today. Also worth watching: 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly is scheduled to deliver a speech. Crude oil: As of 15:03, oil prices on both markets fell, with WTI down 1.07% and Brent down 0.66%. The market was optimistic that the Middle East conflict is about to end. A Pakistan-flagged oil tanker entered the Persian Gulf over the weekend, becoming the first vessel to transport crude oil cargo through the Strait of Hormuz since the US imposed a blockade on Monday. Traffic through this critical waterway remained at extremely low levels. According to ship-tracking data, late on Thursday, the tanker "Shalamar" departed from south of Iran's Larak Island and entered the Gulf of Oman, carrying approximately 450,000 barrels of crude oil loaded at Das Island in the UAE. The Aframax tanker was currently only half-loaded, with its destination signal indicating Karachi. (Jin10 Data APP) Ryoji Musha, president of Japan's Musha Research, stated that the gap between the pessimistic sentiment reported by the media and actual market behavior was too large to ignore. Since the Iran conflict broke out on February 28, the S&P 500 had recovered all its losses and returned to within just 1% of its all-time high. While near-term crude oil futures prices remained elevated, contracts for delivery six months out had already pulled back to the $70 range. Therefore, the market was not assuming a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, nor was it assuming a third oil crisis would occur. Furthermore, Musha pointed out that the global economy's dependence on crude oil was no longer as high as it was in the 1970s, and oil's share in Japan's energy mix had declined from 76% during the first oil crisis to 35% in 2024. Alternative routes such as pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE already existed, and a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would not serve Iran's own interests either, as the strait was also a lifeline for Iran's trade. Japan remained vulnerable to renewed increases in imported energy and transportation costs, but the market was no longer trading as if a full-blown oil crisis were about to erupt. (Jin10 Data APP) SMM Daily Reviews ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM April 11 News: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight domestic market base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE copper rose 1.04%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.32%, SHFE lead fell 0.54%. SHFE zinc fell 0.59%. SHFE tin fell 0.09%. SHFE nickel fell 0.04%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.15%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum continuous contract rose 0.59%. Last Friday's overnight ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 0.27%, stainless steel rose 2.01%, rebar fell 0.03%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.06%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 0.19%, coke fell 0.18%. Last Friday's overnight overseas market metals: LME base metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 1.27%. LME aluminum rose 1.8%, LME lead rose 0.26%. LME zinc rose 0.3%. LME tin rose 0.89%. LME nickel rose 0.44%. Last Friday's overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 0.98%, posting a two-week winning streak on a weekly basis with a 1.95% weekly gain; COMEX silver fell 0.54%, posting a three-week winning streak on a weekly basis with a 4.25% weekly gain. Last Friday's overnight SHFE gold fell 0.12%, posting a two-week winning streak on a weekly basis with a 1.22% weekly gain; SHFE silver rose 1.47%, posting a three-week winning streak on a weekly basis with a 3.65% weekly gain. Institutions including ANZ and Goldman Sachs stated that even as Middle East conflicts disrupted markets, gold is still likely to rebound in the long term. Analysts at these institutions believe that resilient central bank demand, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, expectations of US Fed interest rate cuts, and diversification away from US dollar-denominated assets all provide reasons for long-term bullishness. ANZ analysts Soni Kumari and Daniel Hynes said prices are expected to eventually rebound, as the deteriorating macro combination of economic growth and inflation paves the way for central banks to resume cutting interest rates. ANZ maintained its outlook, forecasting gold prices to reach $5,800 by year-end. Analysts wrote that central bank gold purchases are expected to remain a key support pillar, with official purchases in 2026 estimated at around 850 mt. ANZ's bullish stance echoes similar forecasts from Goldman Sachs and RBC made in early March. Goldman Sachs maintained its $5,400 forecast, citing continued central bank gold purchases and expectations of a 50-basis-point US Fed interest rate cut this year. Goldman Sachs analysts previously stated that if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, gold still faces tactical downside risks in the short term. However, prolonged conflict could accelerate diversification away from traditional Western assets, supporting gold prices in the long term. (Jin10 Data) As of 8:31 AM on April 11, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Li Qiang Chairs Symposium on Economic Situation with Experts and Entrepreneurs] Li Qiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, chaired a symposium on the economic situation with experts and entrepreneurs on the afternoon of April 10, hearing opinions and suggestions on the current economic situation and the next steps for economic work. Li Qiang emphasized the need to promote high-quality and efficient development of the service industry, catering to people's needs throughout their entire life cycle and enterprises' needs across the entire process of production and operation. He called for thorough implementation of the service industry capacity expansion and quality improvement initiative, coordinating development and regulation, and cultivating more "China Services" brands. At the same time, he stressed the need to deepen and expand "AI+," accelerate the digital and intelligent transformation of manufacturing, and support the overall upgrading of the industrial system through deep integration and mutual empowerment of advanced manufacturing and modern services. Greater efforts should be made to promote employment and income growth for urban and rural residents, tap into employment potential across various channels and sectors, vigorously cultivate new occupations and positions, promote shifts in employment concepts and enhancement of vocational skills, formulate and implement income growth plans for urban and rural residents, and strengthen the virtuous cycle of resident income growth, domestic demand expansion, and economic development. (Xinhua News Agency) [Preview: The State Council Information Office Will Hold a Press Conference on April 14 to Brief on Import and Export Performance in Q1 2026] The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10:00 a.m. on April 14, 2026 (Tuesday), inviting Wang Jun, Deputy Commissioner of the General Administration of Customs, to brief on import and export performance in Q1 2026 and answer questions from reporters. [MIIT: Accelerate Building an Efficient and Unified AI Chip Computing Interconnection Ecosystem and Resolutely Eliminate "Involution-style" Competition in the PV Industry] The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held the 2026 National High-Quality Development Conference for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry on April 10 in Wuhan, Hubei Province. The conference emphasized adhering to a value-oriented approach, promoting high-quality development of the advanced computing industry, accelerating the building of an efficient and unified AI chip computing interconnection ecosystem, and driving the industry chain toward higher-value segments. It also stressed adhering to a problem-oriented approach, carefully analyzing the current challenges facing the industry, proposing targeted development roadmaps, resolutely eliminating "involution-style" competition in the PV industry, and enhancing the resilience and security of key industry chains and supply chains. [CSRC: Launch More ChiNext-related ETFs and Options, and Introduce ChiNext Stock Index Futures in Due Course] A spokesperson of the China Securities Regulatory Commission answered reporters' questions on the Opinions on Deepening ChiNext Reform to Better Serve the Development of New Quality Productive Forces, which mentioned enriching the product and service system. This includes optimizing the compilation of ChiNext-related indices, launching more ChiNext-related ETFs and options, introducing ChiNext stock index futures in due course, supporting fund advisory services in allocating ChiNext ETFs, incorporating ChiNext ETFs into the fund platform for transfer, better meeting the asset allocation and risk management needs of different investors, and enhancing investment convenience and attractiveness. [The Nationwide Mine Safety Risk Monitoring and Early Warning "Single Network" Has Been Basically Established] According to the Q1 regular press conference held by the National Mine Safety Administration, the nationwide mine safety risk monitoring and early warning "single network" has been basically established. Safety sensing data from all coal mines in normal production and construction, open-pit mines with high and steep slopes, tailings ponds, and 84% of non-coal underground mines in normal production and construction have been fully integrated into the national mine safety risk monitoring and early warning system. (Xinhua News Agency) [SSE: The Price Limit Ratio for Risk-Flagged Stocks on the Main Board Adjusted from 5% to 10%] The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) publicly solicited opinions on the revision of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Trading Rules. The revision mainly includes the following: First, the scope of securities eligible for after-hours fixed-price trading was expanded from STAR Market stocks to all A-shares and exchange-traded open-end funds. The adjustment helps meet investors' demand for trading at closing prices, extends trading hours for related products, and facilitates the entry of medium and long-term capital into the market. Second, the trading method during the closing session for funds was changed from continuous auction to closing call auction, with the closing price determined through call auction, consistent with SSE-listed stocks. Third, adaptive revisions were made in line with rule changes and business needs, adjusting the price limit ratio for risk-flagged stocks on the main board from 5% to 10%, refining rule language, and optimizing provisions on disciplinary actions. (Jin10 Data) [New Energy Power and Generation in Five Southern Provinces Hit Record Highs] According to China Southern Power Grid, new energy power and generation across the five provinces of Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Hainan recently hit record highs. The maximum power generation capacity exceeded 100 million kW for the first time, with daily power generation reaching 1.4 billion kWh, accounting for 30% of total daily power generation. (Xinhua News Agency) US Dollar: Last Friday, the US dollar index extended its decline from the previous four trading days, falling another 0.11% to close at 98.69. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index posted a second consecutive weekly decline, down 1.49% for the week. US inflation surged sharply in March, with the war with Iran driving gasoline prices to their largest single-month gain since 1967, significantly intensifying overall price pressures. Data released Friday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% MoM, in line with market expectations, marking the largest single-month increase since June 2022; it rose 3.3% YoY, accelerating significantly from February's 2.4% and hitting the highest level since 2024. Gasoline prices posted their largest single-month gain on record since 1967, almost single-handedly driving the overall monthly increase , contributing nearly three-quarters of the monthly gain. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose only 0.2% MoM, below the market expectation of 0.3%, offering some relief to the market and boosting short-term interest rate cut bets. However, economists warned that the second-round effects of this energy shock had not yet been fully reflected in core inflation, and April data faced the risk of further increases. The US dollar fell after the data release. The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April plunged from 53.3 in March to 47.6, hitting a record low. The current conditions index fell to 50.1, hitting a record low; the expectations index dropped to its weakest level since 1980; and the perception of current financial conditions tied the worst reading since 2009. Consumers expected prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.8% over the next year. This figure surged 1 percentage point from March, marking the largest single-month increase since Trump announced sweeping tariff hikes a year ago. San Francisco Fed President Daly (2027 FOMC voter): Bringing inflation down to 2% is critically important, but doing so at the expense of employment would put households in a difficult position. US economic fundamentals are "solid," and the labour market is more stable. Risks to the US Fed's goals of full employment and inflation are balanced. It is necessary to watch how the conflict evolves and how enterprises pass through price increases. Policy is sufficiently restrictive to exert downward pressure on inflation, while also sufficiently balanced to support a stable labour market. Policy is in a good place, giving us more time to observe how the conflict resolves and how oil prices change. High CPI data would not surprise anyone. The real question is whether the ceasefire can hold — if it does, the high CPI will become "old news." (Wallstreetcn) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include: US March existing home sales annualized total, US March NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US March PPI YoY, US March PPI MoM, China March trade balance in US dollars, China March trade balance, France March CPI MoM final, Eurozone February industrial output MoM, Canada February wholesale sales MoM, US April NY Fed Manufacturing Index, US March import price index MoM, US April NAHB Housing Market Index, Australia March seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, China March total retail sales of consumer goods, China March industrial value added of enterprises above designated size, UK February three-month GDP MoM, UK February manufacturing output MoM, UK February seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, UK February industrial output MoM, Eurozone March CPI YoY final, Eurozone March CPI MoM final, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11, US April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US March industrial output MoM, Eurozone February seasonally adjusted current account, and Eurozone February seasonally adjusted trade balance. In addition, other events to watch this week included: the State Council Information Office held a press conference at 10:00 a.m. on Tuesday, April 14, 2026, where Vice Minister of the General Administration of Customs Wang Jun briefed on Q1 2026 import and export performance and answered questions from reporters; the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank held their Spring Meetings, running through April 17; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo visited the US from April 13 to 18 to attend the G20 and International Monetary and Financial Committee meetings; the IMF released its World Economic Outlook report; the US Fed Board of Governors hosted "Strengthening the US Economy Through Rural Investment: A Working Forum"; Bank of England Governor Bailey participated in a panel discussion at Columbia University; 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participated in a panel discussion ahead of the Semafor 2026 World Economy Conference; US Fed Governor Barr delivered opening remarks at the working forum hosted by the US Fed Board of Governors; Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen, Richmond Fed President Barkin, Boston Fed President Collins, and US Fed Governor Barr participated in a fireside chat at the US Fed Board of Governors' working forum; European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech; the National Energy Administration released total electricity consumption data around the 15th of the month; US Fed Governor Bowman delivered a speech at the Institute of International Finance forum; the US Fed released the Beige Book on economic conditions; Bank of England Governor Bailey delivered a speech on global economic imbalances on the sidelines of the IMF meetings; the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the performance of the national economy; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams delivered a speech; the Group of Twenty (G20) Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting was held; 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivered a speech. (Jin10 Data) Crude oil: Last Friday, both oil futures fell overnight, with WTI down 2.29% and Brent down 1.73%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures declined 14.26% for the week, while Brent fell 13.55%. The market focused on progress in US-Iran peace talks. , crude oil futures prices saw relatively small changes as traders were about to head into the weekend, while the US and Iran plan to hold talks that could determine whether a ceasefire in the Middle East can be sustained. Scott Shelton of TP ICAP said: "Traders have basically pulled out of the market. The $7 fluctuations like yesterday seem to have occurred with very few human traders involved. All they were doing was necessary hedging or cleaning up positions to further reduce risk exposure." He also said: "Maybe after this weekend, we'll have a clearer picture of whether the gap between Iran and the US is too wide to reach a deal." (Jinshi Data) Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) said on its social media on the 10th that only 4 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, including one Iranian tanker and one Russian tanker. (Xinhua) Baker Hughes data showed that US drilling companies cut oil and gas rigs for the third time in four weeks. A senior White House official said that skepticism pervaded the White House. The official said that Trump appeared to have acknowledged in recent conversations with advisors that the Strait of Hormuz was unlikely to fully reopen in the short term. However, at the same time, Trump posted on social media on Thursday that oil supply would be restored soon, but he did not elaborate further. The US Department of Energy (DOE) will lend 8.5 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to four companies. Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council: Gasoline prices are very high at present. I hope the surge in gasoline prices will not affect other areas. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC): As of the week ending April 7, speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil futures increased by 5,520 contracts to 109,227 contracts. (Jinshi Data) Recommended Reading: