[SMM Analysis] Overseas HRC prices Declined More Than Chinese Prices; Overall Procurement Demand Continued to Weaken Passive Contraction in China–Foreign HRC Price Spreads and Blocked Export Channels Price spread models showed entirely diverging trends. Steel billet price spreads were relatively stable, while HRC spreads continued to contract. The China–India HRC spread, after a streak of declines in mid-June, recently plunged to -36, an all-time low in the table. This figure was not only far above the quarterly average of -65, but also well below the current monthly average of -49. The root cause is not a sharp slide in Chinese export prices, but rather extremely weak Indian domestic demand. To defend their domestic market share and digest surplus production, local steel mills in India adopted a highly aggressive "defensive price-slashing" strategy. Meanwhile, given the domestic supply-demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand, there is still room for further downside in Indian domestic steel prices in the near term, and the China–India spread will hover at lows. Data source: SMM Monsoon Rains Suppressed Downstream Demand; Indian Steel Market Was in the Doldrums Weighed down by the traditional demand off-season due to the monsoon rainy season and generally very cautious purchasing attitudes among buyers, Indian long steel prices remained under pressure last week. Rebar EXW prices dropped notably to around $630/mt EXW, hitting the lowest level since May. In contrast, Raipur billet showed slightly more resilience, with prices edging up about $2/mt to around $453/mt EXW. This was mainly supported by a boost from earlier transactions and short-term support from buoyant sentiment in surrounding markets, though current spot procurement remained cautious and restrained. Notably, Chhattisgarh has planned to raise electricity prices, which is expected to push up the production cost of electric furnace billet by about $3–4/mt starting in July, providing some cost support. Overall, the Indian steel market will continue to face a mix of weak demand and cost support in the near term, and prices are expected to remain on a weak fluctuating trend. Off-Season Suppressed Rigid Demand and Shipping Disrupted: Southeast Asian Steel Market Stayed in the Doldrums Short-Term Due to seasonal factors, construction activity rates in core Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand have recently been low, directly limiting the release of rigid demand for long products like rebar and wire rod. Currently, major local mills' rebar EXW prices in Southeast Asia were generally weak, ranging between $520–535/mt EXW. Meanwhile, due to persistently subdued sentiment in end-user buying, destocking in the market remained relatively slow. Facing the current weak market, most buyers chose to wait and see, with purchasing strategies mostly centered on "purchasing as needed and buying just enough for immediate use." Additionally, stimulated by progress in US–Iran negotiations and news that the Strait of Hormuz may reopen, buyers in the Southeast Asian market grew more expectant of a pullback in ocean freight rates. Driven by the desire to "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn," this expectation further amplified the market's bearish and wait-and-see sentiment. Still, the actual easing of shipping pressures stemming from geopolitical issues will take some time, and international freight rates are expected to remain mainly high and volatile in the short term. New Quotas Taking Effect on 1 July Prompted Full Buyer Wait-and-See; European HRC Trading Mediocre, Import Offers Weakened MoM Last week, the overall European steel market was relatively mediocre, with sellers and buyers locked in deep standoffs ahead of the policy window period, and both spot and import markets were subdued: In Germany, mainstream transaction prices for HRC with August–September delivery remained at €680–700/mt EXW. In Italy, mainstream transaction prices for HRC with July–August delivery were at €670–680/mt EXW. Most European buyers generally chose to refrain from booking and are fully waiting for the new import quota system that will officially take effect on 1 July. End-users and traders are eager to assess the actual restrictive impact of the new policy on future import volumes in order to readjust their procurement strategies. At the same time, hit by a double blow from sluggish European domestic demand and uncertainty over the quota policy, steel import activity in Europe also dropped to a freezing point. At present, HRC offers for August shipment from Turkey and Asia to Europe have pulled back to €640–650/mt DDP. With a lack of buyer support, overseas mills' forward export offers showed clear signs of weakening on a MoM basis. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

[SMM Insights] China's Steel Export Landscape to Middle East Reshaped: Finished Products Stall while Billets Stand Out Looking back at 2025, the Middle East market was undoubtedly the most dazzling "emerging dynamic market" in China's overseas steel landscape. In 2025, China's total steel exports to the Middle East reached 15.81 million mt, with monthly shipments basically stable in the high range of 1.2–1.3 million mt. Against the backdrop of total annual steel exports of 134 million mt, up 14% YoY, the Middle East market accounted for 11%–12% of China's total overseas steel export share. This means that in a single geo-economic region, its share and strategic reliance were second only to Southeast Asia, serving as the "second largest core pillar" for China's steel going global. In terms of product mix, high-added-value HRC (29% share), steel pipes essential for oil and gas projects (18% share), and medium-thickness plates (14% share) formed the three dominant players, reflecting the region's strong diversified industrial and infrastructure throughput capacity. However, it was precisely due to such a massive trade base in 2025 and high reliance on conventional Persian Gulf shipping lanes that when geopolitical storms suddenly struck and straits were dramatically blocked, the resulting "broad market stall" and supply chain disruption were so severe. Below, we will analyze in order: the specific situation of China's steel exports to the Middle East, how cargo pressure was shifted through port replacements during the strait blockade, and how the export landscape will be reshaped after the latest US-Israel negotiations? The "Stall" and Structural Anomaly of China's Steel Exports to the Middle East Data Source: SMM, China's General Administration of Customs First, let's look at total export performance. According to SMM historical data and the latest customs export trends, China's total steel exports to the Middle East in the first four months of 2026 plummeted from 5.47 million mt in the same period of 2025 to 3.57 million mt, with April exports directly halving. Specifically, among China's 5.47 million mt of steel exports to the Middle East from January to April 2025, a highly advanced finished-product-oriented export characteristic was evident. HRC (29%), steel pipe (18%), coated steel (15%), and medium-thickness plates (14%) constituted the four mainstays of China’s steel trade. In terms of destination countries, Saudi Arabia’s rigid demand for offshore/oil & gas pipe (986,000 mt) and the UAE’s strong processing throughput of general HRC (1.607 million mt) and medium-thickness plates (779,000 mt) jointly established the traditional “dual-core consumption hinterland” within the Persian Gulf. Data source: SMM, General Administration of Customs of China Supply Shock and Physical Scissors Gap: The “Billet Export Bonanza” Under a Double Squeeze Since the start of 2026, the blockade of the Persian Gulf Strait caused by geopolitical conflicts significantly weakened overall shipments, while a dramatic “underlying mutation” simultaneously unfolded in the product mix. Steel billet, a minor product that previously accounted for only an 8% share (431,000 mt), registered a strong countertrend increase of 24% in the first four months of 2026. According to the SMM survey, the underlying driver of this anomaly originated from a localized supply shock induced by geopolitical shifts in Iran. If the closure of the Persian Gulf Strait severed the “aorta” of Middle Eastern steel imports, the sudden destruction of Iran’s two largest steel giants—Mobarakeh Steel Company (MSC) in Isfahan and Khuzestan Steel Company (KSC)—on March 27, 2026, completely ignited a “raw material upheaval” within the region. Iran is the world’s tenth-largest and the Middle East’s largest crude steel producer (accounting for over 50% of the region’s total crude steel output), with annual steel exports exceeding 10 million mt, among which semi-finished steel billets are the absolute mainstay. Mobarakeh (MSC) has an annual capacity of 11.8 million mt (20% of Iran’s total capacity), making it the undisputed “King of Flat Products/Sheets & Plates” in the Middle East; Khuzestan (KSC) is Iran’s second-largest steel producer and its most critical production base for slabs and billets. Data source: SMM, General Administration of Customs of China Under normal conditions, Iran was the primary supplier of low-priced steel billets to local rolling mills in the Middle East. With the sharp contraction in Iran's external supply, rolling mills in the Middle East, particularly in Oman and parts of the UAE outside the Gulf that were not directly affected by the blockade, faced severe raw material supply disruption risks. To maintain production, local buyers quickly released a large number of urgent inquiries to the international market. According to SMM survey, the huge demand gap for steel billets created by Iran's exit was filled and shared by supplies from China, India, and Russia. Because the local shortage was mainly crude steel raw material for rolling sheets and plates, and the equipment destruction from explosions meant that rolling lines were the first to restart, the main incremental product in these counter-trend orders was steel slab. This situation shares similarities with the article at https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bsrZaRRSRDHC_FmGLulJOQ (Middle East turmoil triggers "mismatch", China accelerates filling a supply vacuum of about 2.3 million mt in Southeast Asia), which mentioned that China would accelerate taking over steel billet supply gaps. That is, despite the decline in steel exports this year, billet exports also achieved counter-trend growth. Stock Game: The "X-Shaped Crossover" of Inside-Gulf Shutdowns and Outside-Gulf Safe Havens Verified by SMM through freight forwarders, steel trade (especially medium-thickness plates, pipes, and steel billets) relies heavily on bulk or breakbulk vessels. When container liners encounter blockades, they can easily reroute by amending bookings via computer systems, but the diversion of bulk carriers faces rigid constraints from destination port drafts, specialized handling equipment (such as large quay cranes), and inland truck connections. Therefore, over the past two months, the supply chain staged a dramatic "port drift" inside and outside the Persian Gulf. The following uses SMM's panoramic shipping data to explain in detail the changes in cargo flow between ports. Under normal conditions, over 70% of China's steel shipments to the Middle East converged densely on Jebel Ali Port inside the Persian Gulf and Dammam Port on the eastern coast of Saudi Arabia. But after the strait blockade, steel port arrivals at these two traditional hubs showed a historic "physical shock" in SMM's high-frequency shipping data (falling to zero from April to May). Meanwhile, the diverted cargo, fighting to survive, surged wildly toward alternative ports outside the strait, tearing open a "lifeline of safety" spatially: ① "Overload Surge" at Oman's Port of Sohar: As the most critical cross-border multimodal transshipment hub outside the Gulf, its port arrivals in April surged nearly fivefold MoM. Large batches of Chinese HRC and steel billet originally destined for the inner Gulf were forced ashore here, causing massive congestion at the port in May as cross-border heavy truck capacity collapsed. ② "Western Route Counterflow" at Saudi Arabia's Jeddah Port: Saudi Arabia abandoned its eastern sea route (Dammam Port) nationwide, forcibly redirecting all Chinese orders to Jeddah on the Red Sea side, causing its throughput to surge to a peak of 361,000 mt in April. Source: SMM, Google Maps However, it should be noted that while cargo can be transferred via other ports in the short term, port arrivals in May have already shown a weakening trend again. The reason is that alternative ports outside the Gulf simply cannot handle such massive and concentrated cargo volumes, leading to extremely severe congestion. According to SMM's survey, because navigation within the Gulf is no longer possible, some shipping lines originally bound for Jebel Ali had to divert to Fujairah, but are still queuing for berths. Jeddah Port faces similar issues. With tight capacity, prices keep surging, and transportation faces severe obstacles. Source: SMM Outlook for Change: With the US-Iran blockade-lifting deal, what impact will the shipping supply chain face? After 108 days of the "dual blockade" (Iran's blockade of the strait and the US's counter-blockade of Iranian ports) that gripped the lifeline of global energy and commodities, the US and Iran officially issued successive high-profile statements announcing a ceasefire memorandum of understanding. The relevant timeline is summarized below. Data source: Compiled by SMM from public channels The news, once released, triggered a strong market reaction. On one hand, there are expectations for export increments from shipping recovery; on the other hand, there are certain demand expectations for post-disaster reconstruction. According to the latest SMM survey, most exporters have not responded enthusiastically to the lifting of the blockade and remain skeptical about its actual implementation. Therefore, from the perspective of actual order-taking, shipments to the Middle East still need 3 to 4 weeks to be verified. If a full lifting is confirmed, the "demand backlog" caused by the earlier shipping disruptions will see a concentrated release. Based on past customs data and the local supply-demand balance table, SMM roughly predicts that finished steel products will experience strong growth expectations, potentially filling a disaster-induced gap of approximately 1.7-2.1 million mt. Among them, HRC accounts for the highest proportion (29%) of China's finished steel exports to the Middle East. Although the Middle East's largest flat steel giant, Iran's Mobarakeh Steel Company (MSC), has reported production resumptions for its blast furnace previously damaged by war, its capacity is in a post-disaster repair phase and is not expected to fill the local gap in the short term. However, recent market rumors suggest that Indian resources are seizing the Middle Eastern market at lower prices, which will also pose some impact on China's export order-taking. However, for semi-finished products, the reason Chinese steel billets have been "hot" in recent months is the supply gap caused by the strait blockade and the bombing of Iranian steel mills. Once Iran's logistics fully recover, Chinese steel billets will lose their advantage in absolute price, logistics distance, and surrounding multilateral competition, and the demand gap in Southeast Asia previously filled by substituting Iranian sources may also be reclaimed. Recently, according to SMM surveys, billet resources are already circulating in the Middle Eastern market. Through the following comparison of comprehensive landed costs (CFR) for billets in the Middle East, it can be clearly seen that Chinese resources are under comprehensive pressure: Source: SMM Therefore, steel billet exports to the Middle East are expected to be somewhat limited, with competition only possible at lower prices. Preliminary forecasts indicate a pressure reduction of 50,000–250,000 mt. However, we need to broaden our perspective to the global multilateral trade context, and we must not fall into excessive pessimism due to localized marginal reductions. Although the billets exported to the Middle East are under pressure, the incremental steel billet volumes that previously replaced Iranian exports to Southeast Asia may not necessarily be wiped out. Given the uncertainty of the Middle East situation and based on considerations of a more stable supply chain, Southeast Asian buyers may continue to source from Chinese suppliers. Therefore, against the backdrop of an overall steel recovery and resilience in steel billet prices, SMM maintains its earlier view, holding a moderately optimistic stance on annual steel exports, with expectations of "steady incremental growth." Finally, it needs to be added that, currently, due to severe port congestion, even if the strait is confirmed passable, it will still take a long time for actual cargo to arrive and cannot immediately be reflected in the data. At the same time, ocean freight rates will also maintain high-level fluctuations in the short term due to unfavorable port cargo pick-up. SMM will continue to track subsequent developments... Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

[Off-Season Demand Continues to Weaken, Non-Oriented Silicon Steel Prices Have Downside Room Next Week] This week, HRC futures rose first and then fell, with the average price shifting lower, and cost support weakened somewhat. The current market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, traders have a strong willingness to sell, and most downstream motor enterprises mainly purchase as needed, with demand being moderate.

[Major steel mills did not continue to push up prices; the non-oriented silicon steel market may remain in the doldrums next week] This week, spot prices of cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel in Shanghai were stable, with overall market transactions being moderate. Market feedback indicated that ferrous metals futures swung wildly this week, and coupled with Baowu's flat July price policy, the drivers for price changes were weak. In terms of fundamentals, downstream demand remained sluggish, with weak purchasing enthusiasm. Meanwhile, steel mills reduced production, leaving both supply and demand for non-oriented silicon steel weak. Although some traders destocked, overall market inventory remained high, suppressing prices.

[SMM Analysis] Steel billet sees notable YoY increase, while UAE’s decline hits a new low By product: Steel billet’s increase remains impressive, mainly because previous geopolitical conflicts caused periodic logistical bottlenecks and surging insurance premiums in major billet and slab production areas at some local Middle East EAF mills and BF-based plants. Overseas billet supply faced a vacuum period, directly pushing global buyers to launch massive inquiries with China. Purchasing sentiment strengthened notably in Southeast Asia in particular. According to SMM’s order-taking survey, exports are expected to stay high in the short term. It is also worth noting that Vietnam’s anti-dumping duties on China’s HRC will be implemented on April 17. As a result, total HRC exports to Vietnam in April increased compared with March, driven by a final rush to front-load shipments before the deadline. Exports are expected to pull back again in May. Data Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs By country: Djibouti’s increase topped the list. Its product mix chart clearly shows that HRC (42%) and steel billet (30%) are the dominant products. As the “Gateway to East Africa” and a transshipment hub, Djibouti itself lacks large-scale consumption capacity. This surge is essentially because repeated Red Sea tensions caused large vessels to unload and transship directly in the Mediterranean or south of the Suez Canal, with Djibouti serving as a safe transit point serving East African inland infrastructure projects such as Ethiopia, or shipping onward via smaller vessels to North Africa. As a global shipping and trade settlement center, Singapore saw an increase of 290,000 mt, mainly due to centralized procurement and trade settlement by ASEAN and Chinese-invested construction projects in Singapore, which provided marginal support for China’s exports of bars, wire rods, and other infrastructure-related finished steel products. The UAE dropped 870,000 mt, and Saudi Arabia dropped 450,000 mt. This was primarily due to geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East, compounded by excessive stockpiling by major Middle Eastern buyers earlier to avoid logistics risks, pushing the Middle East market into a defensive cycle of destocking and slower purchasing. Data Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs Outlook: SMM’s April orders remain at a high level, and May exports are still expected to see increases. According to SMM’s steel export order data, affected by holidays, steel export orders in April dipped slightly by 0.57% MoM from March. However, it is also learned that shipping to the Middle East is gradually recovering, and orders for slabs destined for Southeast Asia saw a significant increase in April. Taking all factors into consideration—with the new export orders index re-entering expansion territory, the export price advantage still significant, and export order performance excellent—SMM expects that China’s steel exports in May will still see growth, with steel billet continuing to play a dominant role. Data Source: SMM Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

[Relatively Firm Support from Raw Material Side; Non-Oriented Silicon Steel Market May Be in the Doldrums Next Week] This week, spot prices of cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel in the Shanghai market remained stable, with overall market transactions performing moderately. Market feedback indicated that current market demand was sluggish, with downstream motor enterprises being cautious in procurement, primarily making just-in-time procurement. The relatively firm support from the raw material side provided certain support for spot silicon steel prices, and traders mainly sold at par prices.

[SMM Analysis] Indian Steel Prices Continued to Weaken, Southeast Asian Procurement Sentiment Remained Cautious From the price spread model, billet/slab: Chinese resources expanded their advantage in the Indonesian market, with the price spread hitting a new monthly low. The inversion between China HRC (FOB) and core ex-China markets deteriorated across the board this week, with multiple indicators hitting historical or periodic highs mid-week, except for the China-India spread which rebounded. Chinese resources are expected to continue offering low FOB prices to Southeast Asia and the Middle East next week, and the price spread matrix is unlikely to narrow significantly in the short term. Meanwhile, considering the approaching EU new regulations, June will be a window period for intense price collapse between Indian and Chinese resources in non-EU markets (such as the Middle East and ASEAN). By sub-market, Indian HRC export prices continued to weaken last week, with suppliers lowering offers to stimulate demand amid an overall sluggish regional market. Vietnam remained the primary export destination for Indian SAE1006 HRC, with August shipment offers gradually declining from $580/mt CFR to $565–570/mt CFR. The price decline was still driven by persistently weak demand, intensified competition among exporters, and widespread market expectations of further regional price declines. According to market rumors, a 30,000 mt cargo of Indian HRC was transacted at $565–570/mt CFR Vietnam last week, below the latest market offer of $572/mt CFR quoted on Friday. However, overall transaction activity remained limited, with Vietnamese buyers mostly adopting a wait-and-see strategy, focusing on the upcoming new monthly HRC price announcements from Formosa Ha Tinh Steel Corporation and Hoa Phat Group before deciding on new procurement plans. Market participants noted that cautious downstream demand and expectations of continued price declines continued to suppress buyer restocking willingness. Overall, the demand environment facing Indian exporters remained challenging. Southeast Asian market: Affected by weak downstream demand and market expectations of further price declines, overall steel trading sentiment remained cautious, with procurement activity continuing to be suppressed. In Vietnam, domestic HRC prices showed a weakening trend due to sluggish new orders and traders maintaining low inventory management. Downstream buyers also mostly adopted a wait-and-see approach, on one hand waiting for local steel mills to announce new monthly offers, and on the other hand closely monitoring China steel futures price fluctuations. Meanwhile, Indonesian suppliers remained among the most competitive sellers in the region, offering HRC to Vietnam at approximately $585/mt CFR, continuing to exert pressure on regional prices. On June 1, Hoa Phat announced its latest price adjustment, lowering HRC offers by $13/mt. Following this announcement, local market transaction prices are expected to continue declining. Overall, seasonal demand weakness, ample market supply, and cautious procurement behavior will collectively keep trading activity in the Southeast Asian market subdued. Turkish market: Affected by the Eid al-Adha holiday, sheets & plates trading in the Middle East and Turkey largely stalled this week, with long and flat product prices remaining stable. By product, as July shipping quota is about to be readjusted, EU buyers' purchasing remained weak, and Turkey's HRC exports to the EU had been quiet since before the holiday. However, as current orders were relatively sufficient, Turkish steel mills were not in a hurry to lower prices to close deals before the quota announcement, but instead focused more on domestic sales. In the long product market, due to regional conflicts and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East causing continued logistics disruptions, China's rebar exports to the Middle East declined. Turkish suppliers successfully captured this market gap, with rebar exports rebounding significantly in April, and exports to Yemen, Africa, and parts of Europe also achieved notable growth. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

[SMM Analysis] Weak Downstream Consumption Increases Pressure on Ex-China Steel Trading Price spread model, the price inversion of Chinese steel relative to overseas markets (India, Japan, Turkey, Black Sea) deepened further in late May. In particular, Chinese resources were cheaper compared to Indonesia, and the price spread was "narrowing at an accelerating pace." For pure ex-China inter-regional price spreads, India's decline was more pronounced compared to other regions, as weak domestic demand drove aggressive low-price bidding. Segment-wise, steel procurement sentiment in Southeast Asia became more cautious last week, with coil prices weakening. In Vietnam, coated steel and steel pipe prices began to slow down after a prolonged rally, and buyers became increasingly cautious about restocking ahead of the rainy season. Meanwhile, due to weak demand and growing pressure from low-priced imports, Formosa Ha Tinh Steel, a subsidiary of Taiwan's China Steel Corporation, also cut its HRC quotations by $5-10/mt to $598-603/mt CIF Vietnam. Although some Vietnamese downstream steel mills continued to raise or maintain prices due to earlier increases in raw material costs and tight spot supply, some producers had begun to limit orders or delay quotations while waiting for a clearer market direction. Notably, Indonesian HRC quotations remained competitive with relatively active exports, with FOB prices at around $565/mt. According to SMM survey, recent transaction prices to Vietnam were around $585/mt CFR. Turkey market: As the Middle East was set to enter a long holiday mid-week, most market participants had already exited early. According to SMM survey, no clear large-volume transactions were seen in the Turkish steel scrap market last week. Meanwhile, as domestic rebar demand remained sluggish, steel mills pushed their target purchase prices for European HMS 1&2 (80:20) scrap below $400/mt CFR to pass on the pressure. The recent euro depreciation and slight correction in ocean freight rates opened up some discount room for European sellers to a certain extent, but judging from actual market transactions, sellers still found it difficult to accept such low prices. At the same time, US exporters continued to hold prices firm at $420/mt CFR. In addition, mainstream quotations for Turkish domestic HRC remained at $660-675/mt EXW. Due to exchange rate fluctuations and high production costs, steel mills were striving to hold prices firm, but downstream buyers remained cautious in purchasing, with expected psychological prices 15-20 $/mt lower. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. 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On May 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Steel Industry" (hereinafter referred to as the "Replacement Measures"). SMM conducted a comparative review and analysis of the relevant content...