On the macro front , copper prices rose first and then fell this week, with the price center lifting WoW. US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, significantly weaker than expected; however, CPI fell to 3.4% YoY and core CPI declined to 2.5%, with inflation largely in line with market expectations, easing concerns about inflation exceeding expectations. In addition, the slowdown in US July PPI growth exceeded expectations, and traders reduced bets on a US Fed rate hike in September, with the latest probability at 32%; LME copper bottomed out. Domestically, the People's Bank of China said it would strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment, promptly plan and introduce incremental policies, and step up efforts to expand domestic demand, providing some support to market sentiment. Geopolitically, US-Iran negotiations and arrangements for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz continued to swing back and forth, with all parties sending different signals on ceasefire deadlines, safe shipping routes and control of the strait. The situation in the Middle East remained highly uncertain, prompting copper prices to fluctuate at high levels. As of 9:00 a.m. Beijing time on August 14, 2026, LME copper touched a weekly high of $14,262/mt, then fell to a low of $13,955/mt, down $307/mt from the high, a decline of about 2.15%; the most-traded SHFE copper contract touched a low of 107,130 yuan/mt, then rose to a high of 108,740 yuan/mt, up 1,610 yuan/mt from the low, a gain of about 1.50%. Fundamentals side , as of August 13, SMM copper inventories in major Chinese regions fell by 2,200 mt from last Monday to 116,700 mt, and total inventories were 8,900 mt lower than the 125,600 mt recorded in the same period last year. Domestic inventories remained at relatively low levels. Supply side, typhoon weather briefly affected cargo flows in east China at the start of the week; as of August 14, open interest in the SHFE copper 2608 contract was 11,615 lots, equivalent to 58,000 mt of metal content; over the same period, registered copper warrants on the SHFE stood at 27,200 mt, and potential deliverable volume was about 2.1 times warrant volume. Open interest in nearby contracts remained significantly higher than current registered warrants; combined with the upcoming delivery, this widened inter-month backwardation and lifted position-rolling costs for suppliers. Suppliers showed greater willingness to sell for cash, boosting spot supply in circulation. Of these, high-quality copper supply remained relatively limited, while non-registered copper supply was ample, and brand differentiation continued. Import side, the nearby LME backwardation structure widened, while the SHFE/LME price ratio for imports weakened; downstream purchase willingness remained low, and actual market deals were sluggish. Demand side, the traditional consumption off-season combined with high copper prices meant downstream users still mainly made just-in-time procurement, and overall transactions showed no significant improvement. For secondary copper, tax-inclusive supply tightened and invoice costs rose; scrap utilization enterprises pushed for lower prices, and the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap stayed high. Looking ahead to next week , on the macro front, US employment data weakened significantly, CPI and PPI pointed to easing inflation pressures, market expectations for a September rate hike continued to decline, and expectations for domestic incremental policy will also continue to support copper prices. If US economic data strengthen again and the US Fed sends further hawkish signals, renewed rate hike expectations and a stronger US dollar will pressure copper prices. Fundamentals side, COMEX inventories continued to increase, while LME inventories and deliverable stocks continued to decline; supply outside the US tightened, supporting LME copper. In China, after delivery of the SHFE copper 2608 contract ends, nearby open interest pressure will ease and the inter-month backwardation will gradually narrow; domestic copper production and imported arrivals will increase, and combined with the consumption off-season and high copper prices, upside room for SHFE copper will be limited. In the short term, fundamentals will dominate the divergence between SHFE and LME, while macro expectations will mainly provide bottom support for copper prices. Overall, LME copper is expected to trade at $13,950-$14,150/mt next week, and the most-traded SHFE copper contract is expected to trade at 107,000-108,500 yuan/mt. Support for LME copper is stronger than for SHFE copper; LME copper is expected to rise, and SHFE copper will follow with modest gains, with LME outperforming SHFE overall.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,071/mt, dipped to a low of $14,066/mt in early trading, then saw its price center drift higher to touch $14,151.5/mt before closing at $14,135.5/mt, up 0.18%. Trading volume reached 20,000 lots, with open interest at 266,000 lots, up 2,423 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting an increase in long positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 107,930 yuan/mt, initially rose to 107,990 yuan/mt, then saw its price center move straight down to touch a low of 107,660 yuan/mt, and subsequently swung wildly before closing at 107,790 yuan/mt, down 0.03%. Trading volume reached 28,000 lots, with open interest at 206,000 lots, down 3,254 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting long liquidation.

SMM, Aug 14: Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,071/mt and dipped to a low of $14,066/mt in early trading. The copper price center then drifted higher to test $14,151.5/mt before settling at $14,135.5/mt, up 0.18%. Trading volume reached 20,000 lots, and open interest stood at 266,000 lots, up 2,423 lots from the previous trading day, suggesting that longs added positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 107,930 yuan/mt and initially rose to 107,990 yuan/mt. The copper price center then moved straight down to a low of 107,660 yuan/mt, followed by wild swings before settling at 107,790 yuan/mt, down 0.03%. Trading volume reached 28,000 lots, and open interest stood at 206,000 lots, down 3,254 lots from the previous trading day, suggesting that longs cut positions. On the macro front, rate futures market pricing for US Fed rate hikes this year fell to 23 bp, and it no longer fully priced in one full rate hike. US Fed officials Hammack and Barkin reiterated that more rate hikes were still needed, while Goolsbee argued that inflation was driven mainly by tariffs and oil prices and could be a one-off factor, leaving the overall stance hawkish. In the Middle East, Iran warned that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz would not be permitted without approval. The US military formed a multinational drone force and dispatched the aircraft carrier USS Washington to the Middle East, with military deployment continuing to intensify, keeping overnight copper prices consolidating at highs. On the fundamentals side, supply was generally ample, but high-quality copper and SX-EW copper were relatively scarce, with clear divergence among brands. On the demand side, although copper prices pulled back slightly, wait-and-see sentiment among downstream users was strong near delivery; procurement was mostly need-based, and overall performance was weak. In terms of inventories, as of Thursday, Aug 13, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide fell 2,500 mt WoW from the previous Thursday to 116,700 mt, with total inventories down 8,900 mt YoY from 125,600 mt in the same period last year. Overall, copper prices are expected to move sideways with a slightly firm bias today.

SMM, August 13: Data summary: As of Thursday, August 13, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China fell by 2,500 mt WoW to 116,700 mt, with total inventory 8,900 mt lower than the 125,600 mt in the same period last year. By region, the Shanghai region was disrupted by typhoons earlier, slowing the pace of warehouse withdrawals and causing inventory buildup; in the Jiangsu region, warehouse inflows and withdrawals were broadly balanced, with limited inventory changes; in the Guangdong region, arrivals declined and warehouse withdrawals increased as a major downstream producer resumed production, driving sustained declines in Guangdong inventory. Looking ahead, supply side, near-term domestic copper arrivals have tightened somewhat due to export diversions, while imported cargoes continue to arrive at ports, marginally easing domestic supply pressure. Demand side, high copper prices combined with the traditional consumption off-season keep end-use demand weak. Currently, spot copper supply is becoming more ample, and market trading sentiment is subdued. Based on supply-demand fundamentals, nationwide copper social inventory is expected to accumulate modestly next week.

This week (August 10-August 13), Yangshan copper premium warrant transaction weekly average price range was $91-104/mt (QP August, average $98/mt); B/L transaction weekly average price range was $87-99/mt (QP September, average $93/mt); EQ copper CIF B/L prices were $57-69/mt (QP September, average $63/mt). As of August 13, the exchange-rate-adjusted SHFE/LME copper price ratio for LME copper versus the SHFE copper 2608 contract stood at 1.128, with an import loss of around 1,004.08 yuan/mt, which narrowed by about 381 yuan/mt WoW. As of Thursday, the LME copper August-date backwardation structure widened from the same period last week, with the carry spread between August and September dates at -$117.45/mt. Currently, mainstream offers for ER registered copper B/L are around $85-95/mt; mainstream offers for registered copper warrants are around $100-105/mt; mainstream offers for EQ copper B/L are around $65-70/mt. This week, Yangshan copper premiums trended weaker, as the SHFE/LME price ratio remained unfavorable, LME nearby contracts showed a steep backwardation structure, and rising copper prices dampened consumption, leaving downstream buying sentiment weak. However, supplier offers had not yet shown a clear retreat, and the divergence between buyers and sellers in the market gradually widened. In addition, according to SMM, the opening of the copper cathode export window in this round was mainly driven by the substantial backwardation structure in nearby LME contracts. Changes in SHFE and LME prices and term structures created export arbitrage conditions for some copper cathode, with export volume currently planned at about 20,000 mt. However, as the August contract approached delivery, copper cathode exports mainly flowed into China bonded zones. According to SMM, as of Thursday this week (August 13), copper inventories in China bonded zones rose by about 4,100 mt WoW from the previous period (August 6) to 35,200 mt. Specifically, Shanghai bonded inventories rose by 4,200 mt WoW to 31,100 mt, while Guangdong bonded inventories fell by 100 mt WoW to 4,100 mt. The main reasons for the increase in bonded zone inventories were: 1. The recent opening of the export window created export arbitrage conditions for some copper cathode, causing cargoes to concentrate in bonded zones; 2. Previously, cancelled warrants from LME Asian warehouses arrived at ports in succession, further lifting inventory levels. Looking ahead, the market will wrestle with whether the SHFE/LME price ratio can recover and with the supply-demand pattern. On the supply side, supply will be shaped by short-term import arrivals and higher exports, while medium- and long-term supply will remain constrained by the US siphoning effect. On the demand side, weak consumption has left downstream buyers with low psychological expectations for transaction prices. Traders are expected to maintain a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers set to grind on. In addition, going forward, as the SHFE and LME term structures are further adjusted, the copper cathode export window and cargo flow directions will still need to be continuously monitored.

SMM, Aug 11 – Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,122.5/mt, drifted lower in early trading to touch a low of $14,069/mt, then the copper price center gradually moved up to hit $14,177/mt, subsequently drifted lower again to finally settle at $14,120/mt, up 0.7%. Trading volume reached 15,000 lots, and open interest stood at 259,000 lots, up 1,164 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting long accumulation. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 107,850 yuan/mt, drifted lower in early trading to dip to 107,450 yuan/mt, then the copper price center moved up sharply to touch a high of 108,060 yuan/mt, eventually closing at 107,790 yuan/mt, up 0.16%. Trading volume reached 27,400 lots, and open interest stood at 212,000 lots, down 2,287 lots from the prior trading day, reflecting short covering. On the macro front, US Fed official Hammack said multiple rate hikes may be needed to bring down inflation, and Trump denied frequent calls with Warsh. In the Middle East, Iran discussed establishing safe shipping routes with Oman, with no transit fees involved; as Iran raised the issue of war compensation, Trump also said he would claim compensation and incorporate it into negotiations; Iran’s supreme leader made new personnel appointments, and Trump claimed the US military actually controls the Strait of Hormuz and has cleared mines. Overall, while the Middle East conflict has been recurring, expectations for rate hikes have diminished somewhat, providing some bullish support for copper prices. On the fundamental side, the supply end was affected by a typhoon, which reduced cargo flow efficiency, with high-quality copper being scarce while non-registered copper was relatively ample, leaving overall supply tight but with clear structural divergence among brands; the demand side was subdued by high copper prices, depressing downstream purchases, and overall performance remained weak. The supply-demand weakness persisted. On the inventory side, as of Monday, August 10, SMM copper inventories across major regions in China declined by 900 mt WoW to 118,000 mt, with total inventories down 13,600 mt from 131,600 mt a year earlier. In summary, copper prices are expected to drift higher today.

SMM, August 10: Data Summary: As of Monday, August 10, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China decreased by 900 mt WoW from last Monday to 118,000 mt, total inventories fell by 13,600 mt YoY from 131,600 mt in the same period last year, with divergent performances across regions. Specifically, in Shanghai, arrivals contracted, but high copper prices suppressed downstream consumption, resulting in inventory buildup; in Jiangsu, domestic arrivals were relatively low, leading to slight destocking; in Guangdong, the export window opened, reducing domestic inflows and causing inventory to edge lower. Market Outlook: Supply side, both domestic and imported copper cathode arrivals are expected to edge up in the short term, easing the tightness in market circulating supplies somewhat. Demand side, high copper prices dampened producers' production enthusiasm, downstream users only made just-in-time procurement, and typhoon disruptions hindered cargo pick-up at warehouses. A survey shows that the operating rate of copper cathode rod is expected to increase to 59.42% this week, up 1.12 percentage points WoW. Under the overall supply-demand pattern, domestic spot supply is marginally loosening while end-user procurement remains sluggish. This week, national social inventories of copper cathode are expected to show an inventory buildup trend.

This week (Aug. 3 – Aug. 7), the weekly average warrant transaction price range for Yangshan copper premiums was $101–$112/mt, QP August, with an average of $106/mt; the weekly average B/L transaction price range was $96–$107/mt, QP September, with an average of $102/mt; and EQ copper CIF B/L prices were $64–$73/mt, QP September, with an average of $69/mt. As of Aug. 7, the ex-exchange rate SHFE/LME copper price ratio for the SHFE copper 2608 contract against LME copper was 1.1247, with an import loss of around 1,385.43 yuan/mt, expanding by about 857 yuan/mt WoW. As of Friday, the backwardation structure for the August LME copper date widened WoW, with the carry spread between the August and September dates at −$61.53/mt. Currently, mainstream offer prices for ER registered copper B/L have dropped to double-digit levels; mainstream warrant offer prices for registered copper were near $100/mt. This week, Yangshan copper premiums pulled back from high levels, mainly because the SHFE/LME price ratio continued to deteriorate, compounded by the widening backwardation structure of nearby LME contracts, which increased suppliers' willingness to offer cargo. Meanwhile, as copper prices surged, downstream consumption demand was poor. Additionally, high premiums in the domestic market previously attracted cancelled warrants from LME Asian warehouses, which gradually arrived in China, causing temporary congestion at Shanghai Port. Together with some export cargo pressuring prices, market spot premiums weakened. According to SMM data, China's bonded zone copper inventories as of Thursday this week (Aug. 6) decreased by about 6,000 mt WoW from the previous period (Jul. 30) to 31,100 mt. Specifically, Shanghai bonded inventory decreased by 6,500 mt WoW to 26,900 mt, while Guangdong bonded inventory increased by 500 mt WoW to 4,200 mt. The weekly bonded zone inventory decline was mainly because of reports that cargo ships were heading to the US. Additionally, the slight opening of the export window led to small-scale exports by some smelters to the bonded zone. Looking ahead, the siphoning effect from North America continues, so the logic of overall supply constraints in the market remains. However, with the SHFE/LME price ratio significantly inverted, consumption demand suppressed by high copper prices, and expectations of concentrated cargo arrivals at ports, traders' psychological price expectations for spot cargo are rapidly declining, and imported copper premiums are expected to see a temporary pullback. Additionally, with the export window slightly open, smelters have export expectations. According to SMM, export volumes in the first week of August up to now have been relatively limited, and future export volumes need continued monitoring.

On the macro front , this week copper prices drifted higher overall. Negotiations between the U.S., Iran, and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz made progress, and market expectations for a near-term reopening of the strait heightened. International oil prices pulled back accordingly, easing inflation worries from energy prices. Meanwhile, the U.S. July ADP employment figure came in below market expectations, and the cooling labour market also dampened market expectations for multiple US Fed rate hikes this year. Although some Fed officials still sent hawkish signals and the strait reopening arrangements are not yet fully clear, their pressure on copper prices was relatively limited. Additionally, expectations that the U.S. may impose tariffs on imported copper continued to attract copper cathode flows to the U.S., driving inventory accumulation at COMEX. Meanwhile, LME inventories and deliverable stocks kept declining, creating a clear regional mismatch of exchange inventories. U.S. tariff premiums and tightening supply outside the U.S. combined to push LME copper prices higher. As of 11:00 Beijing time on August 7, 2026, LME copper hit a low of $13,769/mt this week before shooting up to a high of $14,369/mt, up $600/mt from the low, a gain of about 4.36%. The most-traded SHFE copper contract hit a low of 105,140 yuan/mt, then rebounded to 108,470 yuan/mt, up 3,330 yuan/mt from the low, a gain of about 3.17%. Fundamentals side , as of August 6, SMM copper inventories across major regions in China increased by 7,300 mt WoW to 119,200 mt, extending the accumulation trend. On the supply side, arrivals of both domestic copper and imported copper cathode increased recently, with imported materials such as Peruvian large plates, ESOX, and Myanmar copper gradually circulating in the market. Combined with higher copper prices boosting suppliers’ willingness to sell, spot supply that was previously tight gradually eased. On the demand side, end-user orders were generally weak amid the traditional consumption off-season, and high copper prices further suppressed downstream purchase willingness. Market transactions were sluggish, and purchases remained mainly need-based. However, hi-quality copper and registered SX-EW copper supplies were relatively limited, and transactions improved for some low-priced cargoes, still providing some support to spot premiums. Looking ahead to next week , the market will continue to watch whether the U.S.-Iran deal materializes, the Strait of Hormuz reopening arrangements, and Fed officials’ comments on the future rate path. If expectations for the strait's reopening persist, oil prices and inflation worries will cool further, and together with a slowing U.S. labour market, macro sentiment may still support copper prices. Should negotiations falter again, geopolitical risks and energy price fluctuations could increase volatility in the futures market. In addition, watch out for a resurgence of resource protectionist policies outside China, which could further disrupt global copper flows. Fundamentals side, increasing domestic and imported copper supply will continue to ease domestic spot supply tightness, but high copper prices, inventory accumulation, and the off-season will limit downstream restocking, and SHFE copper spot premiums still face downward pressure. Next week, copper prices are expected to consolidate at highs with an upward bias, with LME copper likely to outperform SHFE copper, but SHFE copper’s upside room will still be constrained by weak domestic demand.

SMM August 7 News: Overnight LME copper opened at $14,268/mt, edged up to $14,270/mt after the open, then consolidated and pulled back to a low of $14,055/mt, before closing at $14,092.5/mt, down 0.40%. Trading volume was 27,800 lots, and open interest increased to 254,000 lots, up 1,610 lots from the previous trading day, with bears adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 108,130 yuan/mt, touched a high of 108,250 yuan/mt and a low of 107,310 yuan/mt, and closed at 108,160 yuan/mt, up 0.36%. Trading volume was 100,100 lots, and open interest fell to 214,300 lots, down 2,426 lots from the previous trading day, with bears reducing positions. On the macro front, the DRC announced a ban on exports of copper and cobalt concentrates; supply concerns briefly pushed LME copper higher. However, US initial jobless claims stayed below 200,000 for the third straight week, and July layoffs declined significantly while hiring plans edged up slightly, indicating the labor market remained resilient. Meanwhile, sources said if upcoming inflation data is strong, Fed Chairman Warsh may be ready to raise rates in September. Rising rate hike expectations put copper prices under pressure and pulled them back. Geopolitically, Iran’s proposed navigation agreement for the Strait of Hormuz could ban US and Israeli ships, adding more uncertainty to the prospects of the strait being open. On the fundamental side, supply side, arrivals of domestic copper and imported copper cathode have edged up recently, and the supply of materials in the market has improved slightly. Demand side, the off-season coupled with high copper prices suppressed downstream production and stockpiling demand, and spot transactions remained sluggish. As of Thursday, August 6, SMM copper inventories in major Chinese regions increased by 7,300 mt WoW from last Thursday to 119,200 mt. Total inventories were 119,200 mt, down 12,800 mt from the 132,000 mt in the same period last year. Overall, copper prices are expected to consolidate at highs today.