According to the latest data disclosed by the General Administration of Customs, China’s imported copper cathode market, while maintaining the 2025 baseline, is facing dual challenges: the continued rise in the share of EQ copper and whether global supply will continue to be diverted. China’s cumulative copper cathode imports in January-February 2026 totaled 356,900 mt, down 33.13% YoY.

According to data from China’s General Administration of Customs, China imported 316,000 tonnes of unwrought copper and copper products in February 2026. For the January–February period, cumulative imports of unwrought copper and copper products reached 700,000 tonnes, down 16.1% year-on-year, compared with 834,000 tonnes imported during the same period last year.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain under pressure. Copper prices retreated today, while orders increased compared to the previous trading day, indicating that the current price level has become more attractive to end-user procurement, which may provide some support to spot premiums/discounts. In terms of market structure, SHFE copper imports turned from loss to profit, prompting importers to actively lock in the SHFE/LME price ratio. As a result, a significant amount of imported copper is expected to enter the domestic market ahead of the holiday. Meanwhile, the Contango spread between nearby contracts narrowed slightly, encouraging suppliers to increase spot sales, adding to short-term spot supply pressure. If copper prices fall further to lower levels, more sustained restocking demand may be triggered, at which point spot discounts could gradually stabilize.

Recently, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (hereinafter referred to as "Freeport"), the largest copper producer in North America, stated that despite US President Trump's earlier claim that the copper tariffs he threatened to impose could support the US copper industry, the actual outcome might be counterproductive—tariffs could impact the economy, leading to a decline in copper demand, which would in turn be detrimental to the industry. Broad tariffs may instead dampen copper demand In recent times, US President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on copper to drive the recovery of domestic industries. In late February this year, Trump instructed the US Secretary of Commerce to launch an investigation into foreign copper imports under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act and submit a report within 270 days. As the largest copper producer in North America, the imposition of tariffs on copper imports by the US should have been a positive development for Freeport, as the company could profit by selling copper at a premium. However, the company's CEO has warned that tariffs could also have a negative impact on the company. "If global economic growth is hindered, it could impact copper prices," Kathleen Quirk, CEO of Freeport, said in an interview. "Ironically, if we try to build up the US copper industry, slower GDP growth and inflation could put significant pressure on copper mines here." Quirk claimed that the US copper industry is currently in a turbulent period. As many industries and applications, including automotive, consumer electronics, and residential construction, are highly dependent on copper, copper tariffs could impose high costs on various sectors of the US economy. Copper tariffs have both positive and negative implications for the company Under Trump's tariff threats, US copper prices have been pushed higher than those in other markets. Currently, copper prices on the Comex are about 9.3% higher than those on the London Metal Exchange (LME), providing traders and producers with greater incentive to continue shifting supplies to the US before potential copper tariffs take effect. In April this year, the premium for copper on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) relative to the LME even reached 13% at one point. At that time, Freeport claimed that such a level was equivalent to a financial benefit of approximately $800 million per year from its copper sales. Freeport owns seven open-pit mines and one smelter in the US, which means it produces about 70% of the refined copper in the country. Quirk stated, "We do benefit from copper tariffs because they raise the price of our copper in the US domestic market... but if there are hefty tariffs and a trade war, we will be concerned about global demand for copper." Quark stated that she maintains a "neutral" stance on copper tariff policies, believing that copper import tariffs have both advantages and disadvantages for her. She noted that Freeport also has copper production sites in Indonesia, Spain, Peru, and Chile, and that tariff-driven trade wars could harm market demand for copper. Compared to tariffs, Freeport has called on the Trump administration to adopt other incentives to promote copper mining in the US, such as the tax credits included in the Inflation Reduction Act—a benefit that US lithium and nickel miners are already eligible for. "The cost structure in the US is higher than globally," Quark said. "Therefore, if you want to protect this industry, you need to consider how to incentivize it."

Analysts from Morgan Stanley stated that US President Trump's decision to double aluminum import tariffs to 50% could drive up aluminum prices and the costs for its users.

On Thursday, June 5, analysts at RBC Capital Markets stated that copper inflows into the US ahead of potential tariffs have supported the metal's price surge year to date. In a report sent to clients on Wednesday, the analysts noted that copper prices on the COMEX in New York have risen approximately 11% since early 2025, outperforming prices in other global markets. The brokerage firm highlighted that North American copper equities have also gained around 9% year to date, listing Capstone Mining Corp and HudBay Minerals as the sector's "top picks." The price rally was fueled by US President Trump's February announcement of an investigation into potential new tariffs on copper imports. Copper is considered critical for manufacturing everything from EVs to power grids. This investigation, coupled with investors capitalizing on rising premiums, triggered substantial copper inflows into the US. Government data showed March imports totaled over 123,000 mt, compared to 58,000 mt and 76,000 mt in February and January respectively. However, RBC strategists led by Sam Crittenden pointed to signs of weakening demand and supply, adding that should Trump opt against implementing metal tariffs, it could act as a "negative catalyst" for prices. Concurrently, RBC analysts identified near-term risks on the demand side for copper prices. They cited potential headwinds from the continuation of Trump's aggressive trade agenda and the seasonal construction slowdown during summer. "The trajectory in coming months will depend on global trade developments," the analysts wrote, "but any positive progress between China and the US would signal improved demand prospects through 2026." Xinhua News Agency reported from Beijing on June 5 that President Xi Jinping held a phone conversation with US President Trump that evening, where both leaders agreed their teams should continue implementing the Geneva consensus and promptly arrange new talks.

SMM Analysis: In May 2025, blister copper RCs in south China were quoted at 600-800 yuan/mt, with an average of 700 yuan/mt, down 350 yuan/mt MoM. Blister copper RCs in north China were quoted at 650-850 yuan/mt, with an average of 750 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt MoM...

[SMM Analysis: Limited Upside Potential for Copper Anode RCs Amidst Tight Supply, Short-Term Market Structure Unlikely to Change] In May 2025, domestic blister copper RCs in south China were quoted at 600-800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 700 yuan/mt, down 350 yuan/mt MoM. Domestic blister copper RCs in north China were quoted at 650-850 yuan/mt, with an average price of 750 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt MoM...

In Q1 this year, supported by the tight global supply of copper concentrates, the center of copper prices shifted significantly higher compared to last year, with the most-traded contract climbing to a historical high of 83,320 yuan/mt. However, during the domestic Qingming Festival holiday, affected by the US's "reciprocal tariff" policy, copper prices plummeted, falling to a low of 71,320 yuan/mt, a drop of 12,000 yuan/mt from the year's peak, representing a decline of over 14%. Looking ahead, the center of copper prices is expected to move further downward. Supply side, with the expansion of the Kamoa and Oyu Tolgoi mines and the commissioning of the new Malmyz mine, global copper mine production is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2025. Meanwhile, the continuous expansion of China's capacity, along with the start-up of new capacities in Indonesia, India, and the DRC, will ultimately drive a 2.9% YoY increase in copper cathode production in 2025. Despite the simultaneous growth in copper mine and copper cathode capacities, the tight global supply of copper concentrates is expected to persist. Currently, copper concentrate treatment charges (TCs) have remained in negative territory for multiple months. As of May 23, spot TCs fell to -$44.25/dmt. In May, the cost of producing copper cathode from copper concentrates exceeded the domestic spot price by 4,705-5,455 yuan/mt. When considering the profit from sulphuric acid sales, the domestic sales loss for copper cathode narrowed to -3,266 to -2,516 yuan/mt. Long-term contract TCs remained at $23.25/dmt. After accounting for the profit from sulphuric acid sales, the domestic sales loss for copper cathode ranged from -2,751 to -700 yuan/mt. The fact that the production cost of copper cathode exceeds the domestic selling price, on one hand, supports copper prices from the cost side; on the other hand, it may dampen the production enthusiasm of smelters, constraining a significant increase in copper cathode production. Previously, influenced by changes in the market supply-demand pattern, the domestic import window for copper cathode closed, while the export window opened. Domestic smelters actively expanded export trade to secure profits. Data shows that in April, domestic copper cathode exports increased by approximately 10,000 mt MoM, while net imports decreased by 15,000 mt MoM. Coupled with the sufficient supply of copper concentrates and the increase in smelters' operating rates, copper cathode production increased by approximately 10,000 mt MoM in April. From the perspective of raw material reserves, domestic imports of copper concentrates, copper scrap, and copper anode increased MoM in April, laying the foundation for production in May. Entering May, with the continuous opening of the export window for copper cathode and the scale of production resumptions at copper cathode enterprises exceeding that of maintenance, domestic copper cathode production is expected to remain at a high level. Driven by the US's tariff reduction policy, the country's imports of copper products have increased significantly. Data shows that the US's imports of copper cathode in January, February, and March were 58,000 mt, 76,000 mt, and 123,000 mt, respectively. In April, imports exceeded 170,000 mt, hitting a record high. UBS analysts expect that approximately 250,000 to 300,000 mt of additional copper will flow into the US market between March and May, indicating that the US refined copper imports in H1 have nearly reached the full-year level of 2023. Against the backdrop of a surge in US copper product imports, China has emerged as the primary supplier, leveraging its cost and capacity advantages, driving up domestic demand for copper semis exports. In April, exports of unwrought copper and copper semis increased by nearly 10,000 mt month-on-month (MoM), while imports either decreased or slowed down in growth MoM, resulting in a 40,000 mt decline in net imports. Despite robust export demand, the characteristics of the off-season for domestic downstream copper enterprises began to emerge in the last week of May. SMM survey data shows that the weekly operating rates of copper cathode rod, secondary copper rod, wire and cable, and enamelled wire enterprises were 70.64%, 22.14%, 82.34%, and 83.90%, respectively, decreasing by 2.62 percentage points, increasing by 0.27 percentage points, decreasing by 1.05 percentage points, and decreasing by 0.50 percentage points MoM. Among them, copper consumption in the air conditioning and new energy sectors both decreased MoM. Specifically, the total production schedules for household air conditioners in China for May, June, and July were 23.3 million units, 20.978 million units, and 18.4206 million units, respectively, showing a month-on-month decline. In the NEV market, retail sales from May 1 to 26 reached 574,000 units, up 2% MoM from April, while nationwide passenger vehicle producers' new energy wholesale sales reached 620,000 units, down 3% MoM from April. The trend of global copper inventories continuing to shift towards the US is significant. As of May 29, SHFE and LME copper warrants decreased to 32,000 mt and 152,000 mt, respectively, with MoM declines of 6% and 25%. As of May 28, COMEX copper inventories increased to 179,700 mt, up 37% MoM. This data change reflects that copper inventories are shifting from the Asian and European markets to the US market. Looking ahead, although the early release of future demand for US imports has provided short-term support for copper prices, copper prices still face downward risks amid intensified volatility in the US and Japanese stock, bond, and currency markets, as well as the gradual entry of the domestic copper market into the off-season for purchases and sales. (Source: Futures Daily)

》[Live] Research and Analysis on Macroeconomy, Electric Power, Infrastructure, Real Estate, and PV Markets; Outlook on Copper and Aluminum Prices; Insights into Cable Technology Trends SMM, May 22: Metal Market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals generally fell. SHFE tin dropped 0.67%, SHFE zinc fell 0.6%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.27%, and SHFE nickel increased slightly. SHFE lead fell 0.83%, and SHFE copper dropped 0.14%. In addition, alumina rose 1.48%. Lithium carbonate increased 0.56%, silicon metal fell 0.25%, and polysilicon dropped 0.55%. The ferrous metals series mostly fell, with iron ore increasing slightly and HRC rising 0.22%. Stainless steel and rebar fell slightly, with declines both within 0.1%. For coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 1.19%, and coke dropped 1.09%. In overseas metal markets, as of 11:42 a.m., LME metals generally fell. LME copper rose 0.18%, LME aluminum increased 0.59%, LME zinc and LME nickel fell slightly, LME tin dropped 0.32%, and LME lead fell 0.43%. In precious metals, as of 11:42 a.m., COMEX gold rose 0.81%, and COMEX silver increased 0.4%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 1.72%, and SHFE silver increased 1.4%. As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for the European Containerized Freight Index fell 3.55%, closing at 2148.1 points. As of 11:42 a.m. on May 22, midday futures market movements for some metals: 》SMM Metal Spot Prices on May 22 Spot and Fundamentals Aluminum: Inventory: According to SMM's domestic aluminum ingot inventory data, as of May 22, domestic aluminum ingot inventory stood at 557,000 mt, a destocking of 28,000 mt from Monday. In the short term, the lower arrival of aluminum in east China is conducive to the rise in premiums and discounts. Follow-up attention should be paid to changes in demand... 》Click for details Macro Front Domestic: [SAMR Publicly Solicits Opinions on the Renewal of Old Residential Elevators] According to today's official website news of the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), in order to thoroughly implement the relevant decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, orderly promote the use of ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds to support the renewal of old residential elevators, and ensure the safety of residents using elevators, the SAMR has drafted the "Notice on Further Improving the Renewal of Old Residential Elevators (Draft for Public Comments)" and is now publicly soliciting opinions from society. It mentions that local market regulation departments should urge elevator manufacturing units to earnestly fulfill their production responsibilities and provide elevator products with high quality, reasonable prices, and excellent after-sales service for the renewal of old residential elevators. The safety performance indicators of drive units, control systems, door systems, suspension devices, and deflector sheaves selected by manufacturing units for the renewed elevators must not be lower than those of the original elevators in use, ensuring sufficient safety margins. [China's cumulative installed power generation capacity reached nearly 3.5 billion kW in the first four months of this year] According to statistics released by the National Energy Administration, as of the month-end of April, China's cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.49 billion kW, up 15.9% YoY. Among this, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 990 million kW, up 47.7% YoY, and the installed capacity of wind power was 540 million kW, up 18.2% YoY. From January to April this year, China's major power generation enterprises completed investments of 193.3 billion yuan in power supply projects, up 1.6% YoY, and investments of 140.8 billion yuan in power grid projects, up 14.6% YoY. [Shanghai Municipal Financial Regulatory Bureau: Supporting SHFE, CFFEX, and other financial markets in Shanghai to build world-class exchanges] Zhou Xiaoquan, Executive Deputy Director of the Shanghai Municipal Financial Regulatory Bureau, stated at the "2025 Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum" that Shanghai is further strengthening the functions of its financial markets, supporting SHFE, CFFEX, and other financial markets in Shanghai to build world-class exchanges, accelerating the construction of a center for the allocation and risk management of RMB financial assets, and better serving national strategies and safeguarding national security. First, it will continue to deepen the opening up of financial markets and enhance their internationalization. It will deepen the interconnection and interoperability of financial markets and accelerate the launch of international-oriented financial products. Second, it will continue to improve the layout of the derivatives system and expand the breadth and depth of services to the real economy. It will support the further enrichment of commodity and financial futures products, empowering the development of new quality productive forces with a more comprehensive product system. Third, it will enhance the ability to prevent and resolve financial risks and safeguard national strategic security. It will leverage the functions of the futures market to help real enterprises better manage risks and safeguard the security of China's industry and supply chains. It will support financial markets in seizing opportunities in digitalization, intelligence, and green development, enhancing their capabilities for autonomous control, secure operation, and maintenance. (Caijing) [SHFE: Accelerating the R&D and listing of varieties such as cast aluminum alloy and LNG] Tian Xiangyang, Chairman of SHFE, stated at the 2025 Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum that SHFE will improve a first-class product system tailored to the needs of new quality productive forces, accelerating the R&D and listing of varieties such as cast aluminum alloy, LNG, offset printing paper, and corrugated base paper. It will establish a first-class institutional mechanism that combines international standards with Chinese characteristics, steadily advancing the implementation of portfolio margins, introducing new trading instructions, and deepening the market's functions. The People's Bank of China conducted 154.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 64.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 90 billion yuan was achieved. ► The central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was 7.1903 RMB per US dollar on May 22 US dollar: The US dollar index continued its downward trend from the previous three trading sessions, remaining in the doldrums. As of 11:42, the US dollar index fell by 0.1% to 99.51. Mounting concerns over the US's ever-increasing debt, coupled with weak demand for 20-year US Treasury bonds, underscore the market's low appetite for US assets. US House Speaker Johnson stated that a vote on a massive tax cut and spending bill could take place as early as Wednesday evening. The US Treasury Department sold $16 billion in 20-year bonds on Wednesday, but demand was sluggish. Investors are worried that as Congress continues to debate the tax cut bill, the US's debt burden will continue to grow. Later this week, several US Fed officials are scheduled to speak, potentially offering further clues about the economic outlook and the central bank's policy path. The market is currently pricing in at least a 50 basis point interest rate cut this year, with the first cut expected in October. In other currency news: Bank of Japan (BOJ) Policy Board Member Asahi Noguchi said that the BOJ should not preset a terminal interest rate during the process of raising interest rates; instead, it should take time to assess the impact of each rate hike on the economy, carefully review the associated risks, and then consider the next rate increase. In his view, there is no need to make significant adjustments to the existing central bank's tapering plan. (Caijing) On the macro front: Today, the following data will be released: flash France May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, flash Germany May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, flash Eurozone May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Germany May IFO Business Climate Index, flash UK May S&P Global Services PMI, flash UK May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, UK May CBI Industrial Trends Orders, Canada May CFIB Business Barometer, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 17, US continuing jobless claims for the week ending May 10, flash US May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, and US existing home sales annualized total for April. In addition, it is worth noting that: Thomas Barkin, the 2027 FOMC voter and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, will attend an event titled "Fed Listens"; the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference, where Qiu Yong, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and relevant officials from the National Financial Regulatory Administration and the China Securities Regulatory Commission will introduce the relevant situation of science and technology finance policies and answer questions from reporters; and the European Central Bank (ECB) will publish the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting. In the crude oil market: As of 11:42, crude oil futures fluctuated rangebound. US crude oil was flat at $61.57 per barrel, while Brent crude oil fell by 0.05%. Oil prices came under pressure due to unexpected increases in US crude oil and fuel inventories, raising demand concerns. Additionally, the market remained cautious, keeping an eye on the resumed negotiations between Iran and the US. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that US crude oil and fuel inventories rose unexpectedly last week, as crude oil imports hit a six-week high and gasoline and distillate demand declined. In the week ending May 16, US crude oil inventory increased by 1.3 million barrels to 443.2 million barrels. Gasoline inventory rose by 816,000 barrels to 225.5 million barrels. Distillate inventory increased by 580,000 barrels to 104.1 million barrels. Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment, said, "Although the increase in US inventory has raised concerns, some investors expect that the summer driving season will arrive after the Memorial Day weekend, which is expected to destock inventory and limit further downside room for oil prices." (Webstock Inc.) Spot Market Overview: ► Suppliers' sentiment to sell off inventory is evident, with the premium center continuing to move lower [SMM Shanghai spot copper] ► Both inventory and copper prices are declining, with suppliers refusing to budge on prices while selling [SMM South China spot copper] ► The aftermath of the trade war lingers, with China's secondary copper import structure accelerating its reconfiguration [SMM Analysis] ► Destocking in east China exceeds expectations, with suppliers showing strong willingness to refuse to budge on prices [SMM Spot Aluminum Midday Review] ► [SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices changed relatively little on May 22, with the 20-year US Treasury auction being the worst in five years Other metal spot midday reviews will be updated later. Please refresh to view~