According to foreign media reports, India's state-owned Hindustan Copper is exploring plans to supply copper concentrate sourced from Chilean state miner Codelco to domestic producers Hindalco Industries and Adani, as India seeks to secure raw materials for its expanding copper industry. Hindustan Copper, Coal India and NTPC Mining are reportedly assessing opportunities involving four copper mining blocks held by Codelco in Chile. Hindustan Copper signed a preliminary cooperation agreement with Codelco in 2025, followed by a non-disclosure agreement in May 2026, with due diligence now underway. The move comes against a widening gap between India's copper consumption and domestic supply. India currently produces around 573,000 mt of refined copper annually, while domestic demand is estimated at approximately 1.8 million mt. Government estimates suggest that the country could eventually depend on imports for 91%-97% of its copper concentrate requirements by 2047. India has been expanding domestic copper smelting and refining capacity as electricity infrastructure, renewable energy, manufacturing and transport increase demand for the metal. However, expanding processing capacity without a corresponding increase in domestic mine supply increases the country's exposure to the international concentrate market. Securing access to Chilean resources could therefore provide Indian smelters with greater long-term supply security while reducing reliance on spot concentrate purchases. Market Impact: India's push into overseas copper resources could introduce additional competition for internationally traded concentrate at a time when mine supply growth is struggling to keep pace with expanding global smelting capacity. As India builds out its copper processing industry, its growing requirement for imported feedstock could increasingly influence Asian concentrate trade flows and competition for long-term supply contracts.

[SMM Copper Express] The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released data showing that the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index all pulled back in July, weakening the overall business production and operation climate. Overall manufacturing demand was under pressure, which weighed on copper semis purchase willingness in traditional sectors such as home appliances and general machinery, dragging down the pace of recovery in copper consumption in the short term.

[SMM Copper Flash] A spokesperson for the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) stated that, according to estimates, the direct new investment in computing power network construction during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan. The construction of intelligent computing centers, servers, power distribution and liquid cooling supporting facilities requires large quantities of copper semis. This vast investment plan will continuously drive demand for copper rods, copper busbars, and conductive copper components, bringing new growth to copper consumption over the long term.

[SMM Copper Express] The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) released data showing that in H1, the revenue of the electronic information manufacturing industry above designated size reached 9.41 trillion yuan, up 18.5% YoY, with profits soaring. The monthly revenue in June alone posted a YoY increase of 24.7%. The production of products such as computing power equipment and communication cables requires large amounts of copper semis. The industry continues to boom, providing stable growth support for copper consumption amid weak traditional copper demand.

[SMM Analysis: Why Can India Sustain High Bids for Overseas Copper Scrap?] India’s copper scrap imports are rising as domestic supply fails to meet growing demand from power grids, cables and manufacturing. Zero basic customs duty, flexible processing, lower treatment costs and freight advantages support higher bids. However, tight global supply and elevated payabilities may continue to squeeze margins.

From January to June 2026, China's total export volume of copper wire rod reached 166,600 mt, up 97.50% YoY, a figure that already surpassed the full-year level of 2024 and nearly doubled the export volume in the same period of 2025. Demand from new energy and power grid infrastructure outside China was released in a concentrated manner, and the export destination structure underwent significant adjustments. Saudi Arabia jumped to the top export destination with a YoY growth rate of 755.70%, while the Philippines became the only market among the top ten to register negative growth. Total: A New Level Achieved in Two Years, Export Volume Reaches a New Magnitude From January to June 2024, China's exports of copper wire rod were approximately 60,400 mt, rising to 84,400 mt in the same period of 2025, up 39.57% YoY. In the same period of 2026, they further jumped to 166,600 mt, up 97.50% YoY. In just two years, the export scale crossed from the 60,000 mt level to the 160,000 mt level. Behind this growth is the continuous expansion of copper consumption driven by global power grid renovations and new energy deployment, alongside the accelerating pace of China's copper cathode rod capacity export. Country Flow: Saudi Arabia Becomes the Largest Source of Growth, ASEAN Carries Nearly 60% of Net Growth In absolute terms, the top five export destinations in H1 2026 were Saudi Arabia, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines, in that order. Saudi Arabia alone contributed roughly one-third of the growth, becoming the largest marginal factor for exports during the period. Currently, Saudi Arabia's downstream industry chains such as cables, electrical equipment, and new energy supporting sectors are rapidly expanding. As the global capacity transfer of "China copper rod, overseas wire and cable" continues to accelerate, large-scale infrastructure and new energy projects outside China are implemented in a concentrated manner, effectively boosting local wire and cable consumption; coupled with the continued release of power grid upgrade demand in various countries, China's copper processing enterprises are actively exploring markets outside China, and these multiple forces together drove a sharp increase in exports in H1. At the same time, demand from multiple emerging markets surged simultaneously. Indonesia's exports skyrocketed 536.74% YoY, India's rose 35.71% YoY, and Singapore's increased 71.32% YoY; Australia's soared 860.63% YoY, and coupled with a 107.28% YoY increase in exports to other countries, China's copper cathode rod export diversification continued to advance, reducing reliance on any single region. The primary driver behind this high export growth was the accelerated capacity transfer of "China's copper rod + overseas wire and cable," concentrated demand from large projects boosting local wire and cable consumption, alongside faster power infrastructure construction in various countries, and domestic processing enterprises actively expanding overseas channels—collectively driving the sharp export increase in H1. Trade Mode: Processing Structure Iterative Shift, Share of Processing Trade with Supplied Materials Edges Up By trade mode, the export structure of copper cathode wire rod saw notable adjustments in H1 2026. During this period, the share of processing trade with imported materials in exports pulled back to 57.76%, while that of processing trade with supplied materials rose to 32.93%. Compared with the same period of 2025, the industry’s exports were highly reliant on the processing trade with imported materials model, when its share was as high as 70% and processing trade with supplied materials was only 14%. The structural shift resulted from changes in export order patterns, coupled with flexible adjustments by domestic enterprises in their order-taking structure to actively meet the differentiated procurement needs of overseas clients, driving diversification in export trade modes. This iterative transformation of the trade landscape also forced export enterprises to rethink their operational approaches, adopting differentiated arrangements in raw material procurement, capital turnover, and customs declaration and settlement, etc., for different trade modes to ensure risk control. Looking ahead, the steady implementation of medium and long-term infrastructure and new energy projects outside China is providing sustained solid support for copper cathode rod exports, while China's copper processing enterprises continue to expand their export deployment, giving the industry's export fundamentals strong resilience. However, affected by the front-loading of orders in H1 and the sharp rise in the export base, coupled with the increasing number of companies entering the export arena, overseas market competition has intensified, putting further pressure on industry export profit margins to narrow; overall export growth in H2 is expected to moderate. In addition, potential risks still need attention: new overseas copper processing capacity gradually coming on stream is diverting import demand, and international trade uncertainties will continue to disrupt the pace of overseas purchasing orders. In summary, China's total copper cathode rod exports in H2 are expected to stay high, with the export market's center of gravity continuing to tilt toward the Middle East, while the divergent demand pattern in Southeast Asia persists.

On July 15, at the , hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. and Shandong Aisi Information Technology Co., Ltd., co-organized by Guangxi Dasheng Power Equipment Co., Ltd., and strongly supported by Solarabic, a Middle Eastern new energy industry media, and the Guangdong Province Industrial and Trade Development Promotion Association, Shenzhen Bendakang Cable Co., Ltd. Chairman Hou Shaofan shared insights on “Copper Spot and Futures Price Fluctuations and the Status Quo of the Wire and Cable Industry”. Macro Insights: Global and Regional Copper Consumption Patterns 2026 Global and China Copper Consumption Overview ► Global copper cathode consumption grows mildly, supply-demand pattern tightens Global copper cathode consumption is expected to reach around 25 million mt in 2026, up 1.6% YoY. NEVs, PV and wind power, and AI computing centers become core drivers. The market will see a supply deficit, with ore supply tightness persisting. ► China's copper consumption leads the globe, driven by emerging fields China accounts for half of global copper consumption. Its apparent consumption is set to exceed 13 million mt in 2026, up around 2% YoY, leading the world. Power grid investment, new energy, and AI data centers are the core drivers. Demand in emerging sectors is robust, while growth in traditional sectors is slowing down. South China: A Growth Pole Driven by Export-Oriented and Emerging Momentum South China, especially Guangdong Province, as one of the core engines of China's manufacturing, exhibits a distinct "export-oriented" and "emerging momentum-driven" copper consumption structure. It closely relies on downstream industries such as electronic information and NEVs, with a notable export orientation, making it a key growth pole for domestic copper consumption. Regional Pattern: An Analysis of the Industrial Gap Between South China and East China North-South Industrial Divergence: Five Core Gaps Between South China and East China's Wire and Cable Industries ► In-depth Analysis of Regional Industrial Development Models and Core Competitiveness From five dimensions – enterprise structure, risk management, industry chain support, client resources, and industry ecosystem – the current development status of the wire and cable industries in the two regions is compared, revealing the underlying logic and development pain points behind the industrial divergence. Industry Growing Pains: In-depth Analysis of Three Core Pain Points Pain Point 1: Party A's "Imposed Terms" – Imbalanced Bargaining Power 01 Excessively long payment cycles; 02 "Back-to-back" payment terms shifting risk; 03 High security deposits squeezing capital; 04 Fixed prices disregarding cost fluctuations. Pain Point 2: Wild Swings in Copper Prices – The Risk of "High-Cost In, Low-Price Out" Losses 01 Two-way risk: both sharp rises and falls put pressure on; 02 Transmission lag: the core crux of losses; 03 Breakthrough solution: using financial instruments to build a solid defense. Pain Point Three: Industry Price Involution — the Meager Profit Dilemma of Being "Cheaper than Vermicelli" ►01 Fierce Price War: Survival Struggle in the Quagmire of Meager Profits The industry presents a pattern of “big industry, small enterprises,” with CR10 below 12%, over 90% being small and medium-sized enterprises, and the market highly fragmented. The price war in the low and mid-end cable sector is intensifying, even giving rise to the industry joke of being “cheaper than vermicelli,” directly resulting in the industry’s average net profit margin falling below 3%. Small and medium-sized enterprises are trapped in a survival dilemma with meager profits, or even negative profits. ►02 Vicious Cycle: The Industry Paradox of Bad Money Driving Out Good Low-price competition forces some enterprises to cut corners, causing product quality and safety risks. More seriously, substandard cable products directly threaten public property safety and even pose significant risks to the lives of the public. Entrepreneurs (this great group of people) who originally immersed themselves in industry with a craftsman’s spirit and aspired to contribute to social and economic development, once they breach the quality bottom line in the low-price involution, not only harm users and society but ultimately violate the law, end up imprisoned, and cause an irreparable tragedy. Meager profits prevent enterprises from investing in R&D and innovation, trapping them in a vicious cycle of “low price—low quality—even lower profits.” Meanwhile, the industry’s low-end capacity is severely surplus, while the high-end market has long been dominated by foreign brands, with technical barriers difficult to overcome. Future Outlook: Industry Chain Synergy and Development Trends Grasp the Industry Pulse · Co-Build a Synergistic Ecosystem · Open a New Chapter of Cooperation Based on the new stage of industrial development, we start from three dimensions—trend analysis, synergistic co-construction, and cooperation opportunities—to analyze the future direction of the copper wire and cable industry. The aim is to build industry consensus, promote deep integration of the upstream and downstream, and through institutional innovation and resource integration, build a safe, stable, and win-win new pattern of industrial development. 01 Industry Trends: Growth and Standardization Demand side benefits from the dual drivers of new energy and new infrastructure, with market growth continuously released; risk control side sees derivative tools becoming standard, with bare position models gradually phased out; the industry landscape is accelerating toward concentration among large-scale, compliant leading enterprises, with the Matthew effect prominent. 02 Synergy Initiatives: Shared Responsibility and Joint Governance We advocate for the industry-wide adoption of a copper price-linked adjustment mechanism to share price fluctuation risks; collaborate with financial institutions to promote the “option hedging + performance guarantee” model to build operational defenses; establish an industry alliance to unify pricing floors, resist low-price involution, and share risk control and market resources. 03 Cooperation Invitation: Openness and Win-Win Provide stable batch supply of national standard cables for PV, power grid, and new energy supporting applications; connect with professional institutions to offer copper option price insurance consulting and financial guarantee services; sincerely invite copper enterprises, financial institutions, and EPC contractors to engage in long-term strategic joint ventures to jointly create industry value. In addition, they shared the breakthrough path: Bendakang practical cases and solutions from such perspectives as Bendakang Cable—from scale leadership to value guidance; financial innovation practice: the "option price protection" policy, empowering industry chain win-win; practical reference: Bendakang's combined strategy of "option price protection + performance bond"; innovation engine: a high-end and intelligent product matrix; smart manufacturing upgrade: digitally driven lean production practice, etc.

[SMM Analysis] SHFE copper cathode spot premiums experienced notable volatility in H1 2026, marked by deep discounts in phases, a recovery in Q2, and a return to positive territory by mid-year. In Q1, seasonal inventory buildup after the Chinese New Year, slow downstream recovery, and disruptions from contract rollovers repeatedly put spot premiums under pressure. Entering Q2, consumption improved QoQ, and concentrated smelter maintenance drove continuous destocking of domestic social inventory. In particular, the rapid decline in Guangdong inventory lifted spot premiums in South China, opened arbitrage opportunities for shipping inventory from East China to South China, and provided support to premiums in Shanghai and other regions. From May to June, although high copper prices and off-season expectations suppressed downstream purchases, the widening LME-COMEX spread diverted overseas supply to the US market, constraining the pace of imported copper replenishment in China, with low inventory levels still underpinning spot market resilience. Looking ahead to H2, SHFE copper premiums will be shaped by the interplay of inventory, consumption, imports, and supply additions. The Q3 off-season may limit the upside for premiums, but low inventories, uncertainty over import replenishment, and tight regional supply will continue to support spot premiums. In Q4, attention should be focused on the capacity ramp-up of new expansion projects such as Humon Phase 2, Chifeng Jintong Phase 2, and Shenghai Phase 2. If new supply is released smoothly, the import window opens, and consumption recovery remains weak, spot premiums may gradually come under pressure. However, if inventories stay low and import replenishment remains limited, premiums could still see intermittent strengthening opportunities.

As of Thursday, June 25, social copper inventories in major regions of China increased by 11,700 mt WoW to 206,000 mt, while regional inventory trends diverged significantly. Copper price pullbacks have spurred a recovery in downstream purchasing demand, and coupled with ongoing adjustments in the market's supply-demand pattern, inventory performance varied across regions. By region, inventory trends in China's key copper consumption areas showed pronounced divergence. In Shanghai and Jiangsu, the two core markets, inventories pulled back in tandem, signaling a notable recovery in demand. Recently, domestic copper prices fell sharply, with lower prices effectively stimulating downstream enterprises' restocking willingness. In Shanghai, buoyed by favorable prices, downstream purchasing activity increased significantly, continuously drawing down spot inventories; meanwhile, combined with relatively low regional arrivals in the prior period, the market maintained a destocking pattern. Jiangsu's market situation was largely in line with Shanghai's—falling copper prices prompted end-users to concentrate on pricing and purchasing, with rigid-demand orders released intensively, effectively driving steady destocking of regional inventories and markedly improving spot market liquidity. In stark contrast to Shanghai and Jiangsu, inventories in Guangdong continued to climb, becoming the main drag on the national inventory increase. According to market analysis, as the year entered the mid-year phase, consumption by downstream copper semis enterprises in Guangdong gradually slowed, end-user order growth pulled back, and overall willingness to purchase remained weak. Meanwhile, domestic smelters accelerated their shipment pace, concentrating deliveries into Guangdong warehouses, driving a significant increase in regional arrivals. Under the dual impact of weakening downstream consumption and concentrated inflows of upstream supply, copper inventories in Guangdong continued to accumulate. Looking ahead, China's copper market will see structural adjustments on both supply and demand sides in the short term, with a destocking trend essentially in place. On the supply side, the domestic copper cathode market has recently seen somewhat looser supply, with port arrivals of imported cathode steadily rising. Meanwhile, domestic smelters have maintained steady production and shipment pace, with domestic supply arrivals continuing to increase, resulting in ample overall spot supply. The outlook for demand improvement is more definitive. After this round of sharp copper price declines, downstream enterprises' cost pressure has eased significantly. Coupled with previously accumulated orders on hand awaiting execution, market stockpiling sentiment continues to recover, and end-user restocking demand for rigid needs is set to be released intensively, continuously consuming spot cargo circulating in the market. Overall, the current domestic copper spot market is characterized by a favorable pattern of "ample supply and recovering demand," with downstream restocking momentum sufficient to offset pressure from short-term new supply. SMM expects that next week, national copper social inventories will shift to a destocking pace, and overall inventories are likely to pull back steadily. Going forward, the market should closely monitor the magnitude of copper price fluctuations, the sustainability of downstream purchasing intensity, and the pace of imported supply arrivals.

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