[SMM Analysis]Weak Supply-Demand Pattern; Secondary Aluminum Prices Were Expected to Come Under Pressure and Pull Back in April

Supply glut, cautious demand, and fading cost support drag the benchmark contract down RMB 205/mt in the week of March 30 – April

On April 2, 2026, the White House ushered US steel trade policy into "Version 2.0." This strategic shift goes beyond simple tariff hikes. It uses full-value taxation and melt-and-pour traceability to block low-end imported raw materials, while applying structural tariff reductions to finished products to ease manufacturing inflation. Ultimately, this two-pronged approach aims to forcibly bring the global supply chain back to domestic US steel production.

On April 1, 2026, the launch ceremony for the Zhongke Liquid Sunshine (Shawan) Green Hydrogen Coupled Zero‑Carbon Liquid Sunshine Methanol Circular Economy Industrial Project was held in Shawan, Tacheng Prefecture, Xinjiang. As a flagship project of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan strategic hydrogen energy layout, the project has officially entered the construction phase. Led by the research team of Academician Li Can of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) and developed by Zhongke Liquid Sunshine (Shawan) Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd . , the project will build an integrated zero‑carbon circular economy system centered on wind‑solar power, green hydrogen, and methanol. It comprises three core modules: an annual output of 3.6 million tonnes of methanol, 13.5 GW of photovoltaic hydrogen production capacity, and an annual output of approximately one million tonnes of coal. Compared with conventional coal chemical industry, this model cuts coal consumption by two-thirds while enabling efficient utilization of green electricity and green hydrogen. The project adopts domestically developed oil‑methanol co‑refining technology to produce polyester fiber, supporting high‑value resource utilization in conjunction with Xinjiang’s textile industry. Multiple enterprises have participated in the joint construction, including China National Chemical Engineering Third Construction Co., Ltd. In alignment with national policies such as the West Hydrogen East Delivery pipeline initiative, the project will help upgrade Xinjiang’s wind and solar energy resources. It is expected to create nearly 2,000 jobs, serve as a model for Xinjiang’s green energy transition, and support national energy security and low‑carbon development.

In the spot market, with the Qingming Festival holiday approaching this week (March 30-April 3, 2026), some downstream battery enterprises mentioned pessimistic expectations for April orders. Coupled with lead prices holding up well, enthusiasm for stockpile procurement declined, and wait-and-see sentiment in the market was strong. This week, mainstream transaction prices for primary lead in Henan fell to parity or small discounts against the SMM #1 lead average price, while some suppliers concluded deals at discounts of 180 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2605 contract. Near the weekend, except for a few producers that held prices firm and held back from selling, smelters and suppliers in Hunan and Guangdong lowered their premiums against the SMM #1 lead average price to quoted premiums of 0-30 yuan/mt, but actual transactions were thin. Downstream producers told SMM that some suppliers in the market were dumping lead ingots at discounts ahead of the holiday to reduce inventory pressure. Lead consumption in the market softened slightly this week, downstream enterprises generally stayed on the sidelines, some procurement demand was postponed until after the holiday, and inquiries and transactions in the spot primary lead market shrank.

It was learned that the SMM weekly composite operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises in five provinces was 73.45% from March 27 to April 2, 2026, down 0.47 percentage points WoW from the previous week. In April, the lead-acid battery market entered the traditional consumption off-season. Some enterprises reported softer end-use consumption and a decline in finished product orders, and planned to scale back their April production plans. The weekly operating rate edged down this week. Recently, the Chinese market coincided with the Qingming Festival holiday, and lead-acid battery enterprises planned holidays ranging from 0 to 3 days. Among them, automotive battery enterprises mostly took 1 day off, while e-bike lead-acid battery enterprises mostly took 2-3 days off. The holiday impact will be reflected in next week's weekly operating rate of lead-acid batteries.

Next Monday, markets outside China will be closed for one day on April 6 for the Easter holiday, including the LME and other exchanges. Meanwhile, China will also be in the Qingming Festival holiday, with the SHFE and other exchanges likewise closed. In terms of macroeconomic data, key releases include China’s March CPI YoY and the US March non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, while the US Fed will also release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. LME lead, geopolitical tensions outside China have repeatedly resurfaced and the situation remained relatively severe, with the impact on energy, shipping, and other areas continuing. China’s lead ingot import window had remained open for a long time, attracting overseas lead ingot inflows into the Chinese market and reducing spot lead circulation in Southeast Asia and other markets. Especially during periods of rising LME lead, LME Cash-3M contango further narrowed WoW to -$20.77/mt, which will support lead prices to hold up well. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,890-1,965/mt next week. SHFE lead, lead ingot supply is expected to increase in April, but the consumption side is facing the traditional off-season. Coupled with the Qingming Festival holiday, when downstream enterprises will be on holiday, the risk of post-holiday lead ingot inventory buildup will rise, which will weigh on the upward momentum of lead prices. In addition, delivery of the SHFE lead 2604 contract will come onto the agenda after the holiday, and attention should be paid to changes in plant warehouse lead ingot inventory into visible inventory, with caution against lead prices retreating after rapid rise. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,500-16,900 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,350-16,700 yuan/mt. During the Qingming Festival holiday, many downstream enterprises plan to take time off, leading to a temporary absence of lead consumption. Together with the approaching traditional off-season, downstream enterprises will maintain purchase as needed. On the supply side, production at primary lead and secondary lead enterprises will rise steadily, while imported lead continues to flow into China, making it possible for spot discounts for lead to widen.

SMM, April 3: This week, the mainstream tax-included ex-factory prices of secondary lead were at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, with local premiums at 75-100 yuan/mt; lead prices rose mid-week, boosting enterprises' willingness to make shipments, but downstream consumers remained cautious in pre-holiday procurement, and overall actual transactions in the spot market were relatively weak. This week, the rise in lead prices helped repair smelter losses to some extent, but persistently high raw material costs for scrap batteries still put certain pressure on smelter profits. As of April 3, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit and loss for large-scale enterprises stood at -133 yuan/mt, and that for small and medium-sized enterprises was -315 yuan/mt (the by-product revenue in the model did not include tin and antimony). Next week, after the holiday, the pace of smelter production resumptions will accelerate, coupled with continued inflows of imported lead, leaving overall supply relatively ample. As the consumption off-season approaches, premiums for spot orders of secondary refined lead are expected to continue moving sideways within a range, with limited room for the premium range to expand. 》Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

Recently, end-use consumption in the lead-acid battery market has remained weak, while lead prices have held up well. Battery enterprises have found it difficult to adjust prices, and the battery wholesale market has also struggled to catch up. During the period, e-bike enterprises successively issued notices saying that, due to rising raw material costs, they plan to raise the selling price of complete vehicles by 200-300 yuan per unit in April. In addition, on the lead-acid battery producer side, lead prices strengthened during the week, downstream enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm weakened significantly, spot transactions also turned lighter WoW, and spot premiums declined.

This week, stainless steel spot prices fell slightly more than production costs, further worsening the inversion between stainless steel mill prices and costs. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on raw material prices on the day, the full cost profit margin was -1.19% this week; calculated based on raw material inventory costs, the margin was -0.55%. Nickel-series raw material costs, high-grade NPI prices remained in the doldrums this week. Although nickel ore prices are currently holding firm and NPI traders are broadly bullish, SHFE nickel futures have been weak recently, while downstream stainless steel prices have struggled to rise. Stainless steel mills themselves are under heavy cost pressure and have shown low acceptance of high-priced raw materials, resulting in sparse market transactions recently; affected by this, high-grade NPI traders have faced considerable transaction pressure, and the price center edged lower slightly. As of this Friday, high-grade NPI with a grade of 10-12% fell by 2 yuan per nickel unit to 1,081.5 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market, stainless steel scrap prices were stable this week, and the decline in finished stainless steel prices did not transmit to the steel scrap market, while prices of substitute furnace charge also remained stable. Tightness in tax invoices eased, the economic advantage of steel scrap became more evident, and high stainless steel mill production schedules drove higher consumption, lifting market transactions and easing inventory pressure. However, finished product prices struggled to rise, limiting upside room for steel scrap prices, which are expected to remain stable in the short term. As of this Friday, the price of 304 off-cuts in Shanghai rose by 100 yuan/mt, with the latest quote at around 10,150 yuan/mt. Chrome-series raw material costs, high-carbon ferrochrome prices dropped back slightly this week. Although some ferrochrome producers recently reported maintenance and production cuts, and stainless steel production schedules for April remained high, leaving retail spot supply in the ferrochrome market relatively tight, stainless steel mills had built relatively ample ferrochrome raw material inventories earlier. Meanwhile, high port inventories of chrome ore recently caused some loosening in chrome ore spot prices. In addition, ferrochrome capacity has already reached a high level, the rainy season in south China is approaching, and ferrochrome producers outside China are resuming production. With ferrochrome producers lacking confidence in the outlook, ferrochrome prices still faced some downward pressure. As of this Friday, high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia fell 25 yuan/mt (50% metal content) WoW to 8,625 yuan/mt (50% metal content).