SMM April 13 update: SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated downward in the morning session, with the price center moving lower than the previous day. Affected by some futures-spot warrant shipments, overall selling sentiment in the market was relatively high, circulating supplies were fairly sufficient, and market transactions declined after the opening. Transactions were mainly concentrated around SMM A00 aluminum at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to the average price. East China market shipment sentiment index was 3.41 today, up 0.17 MoM; purchasing sentiment index was 3.01, flat MoM. Aluminum futures prices pulled back today. Combined with persistently high inventory levels in central China, traders and downstream processing enterprises held pessimistic expectations for price increases. Overall buying sentiment in the market was poor, and suppliers tended to engage in price collapse shipments in bulk when the price spread between central China and east China was relatively small, driving market quotes lower throughout the day. Ultimately, overall quotes in the central China market fell from a premium of 20 yuan to a discount of 10 yuan against the central China price. Central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.77 today, up 0.01 MoM; purchasing sentiment index was 2.4, down 0.04 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 8,500 mt MoM today, with all three regions showing inventory buildup.

SMM April 13 News: Data Brief: As of Monday, April 13, SMM copper inventories across major regions nationwide decreased 12.52% WoW from last Monday, marking five consecutive weeks of destocking. Specifically, in Shanghai, imported copper arrivals remained stable while domestic arrivals decreased somewhat; downstream buyers mainly made just-in-time procurement, and inventory destocked steadily. In Jiangsu, domestic arrivals declined, but the pace of warehouse withdrawals also slowed down simultaneously, with regional inventory basically stable. In Guangdong, the prior destocking trend continued, mainly supported by reduced arrivals and robust end-use consumption, with inventory continuing to pull back. Outlook: On the supply side, imported copper arrivals were intermittent, the pace of domestic arrivals slowed down, and an overall tight supply pattern is emerging. On the demand side, downstream buyers still mainly made just-in-time procurement, with overall consumption slowing down slightly compared to the previous period. According to survey data, the weekly operating rate of copper cathode rod is expected to decline to 75.58% this week, down 4.39 percentage points WoW. Considering both supply and demand sides, the market has formed a pattern of "tightening supply and phased stabilization of consumption," and social inventory is expected to continue destocking this week.

SMM April 13 News: Today in Guangdong, spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 130 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 70 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 98,930 yuan/mt, up 525 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 98,835 yuan/mt, up 525 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory continued to decline for 19 consecutive trading days, falling below the 30,000 mt mark and hitting a new low for the year. As copper prices continued to rise, downstream buyers showed lukewarm interest in restocking, making it difficult for suppliers to hold prices firm on shipments. Quotes today merely held at last Friday's levels, with overall trading activity remaining subdued. Today, the procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.24, down 0.06 from the previous trading day, and the shipment sentiment was 3.68, up 0.04 from the previous trading day (historical data can be accessed via the database). Overall, despite 19 consecutive days of inventory decline, copper prices rose while downstream consumption weakened, and overall trading activity remained subdued.

April 13, 2026: The average warrant price rose by $2/mt from the previous trading day, closing at $75/mt (price range $70–80/mt); the average B/L price rose by $3/mt from the previous trading day, closing at $72/mt (price range $66–78/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price rose by $1/mt from the previous trading day, closing at $41/mt (price range $36–46/mt), with quotations referencing cargoes arriving from late April to early-to-mid May. Consumption in China remained strong at the beginning of this week. Offshore market demand was mainly driven by near-term arriving EQ B/L and bonded warehouse warrants, with downstream buyers actively seeking cargoes. A small volume of ER copper B/L arriving in mid-to-late April was heard quoted at $75/mt, QP May; mid-April arriving EQ B/L was offered at $50/mt, late April arriving EQ B/L was quoted at $45/mt, mid-May arriving B/L was quoted at $50/mt, with a small volume transacted at $40–45/mt, QP May. General ER copper warrants for delivery within this week were quoted at $80/mt, QP May.

Today, #1 copper cathode spot prices in North China against the front-month contract were reported at a discount of 160 yuan/mt to a discount of 100 yuan/mt. The average price rose 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, with the average transaction price at 98,610 yuan/mt, up 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Sweden installed 21,600 grid-connected solar plants last year, bringing the total to 314,600 installations and approximately 5.5 GW of cumulative capacity. This capacity is enough to cover the annual electricity consumption of about 13.4% of Swedish households. While total capacity continues to rise, the 15% growth rate marks a significant slowdown from the nearly 70% surge seen between 2022 and 2023. Despite the cooling pace, industry body Svensk Solenergi suggests last year’s 652 MW addition likely represents the market's low point, with solar remaining a vital piece of Sweden's fossil-free energy puzzle.

[Solid Geopolitical Support, Aluminum Prices Fluctuate at Highs] Overall, from a macro perspective, restricted strait transit and risks of conflict escalation resonated with fundamental supply-side hard damage and low global inventory, jointly providing strong bottom support for aluminum prices. However, weak interest rate cut expectations, above-expectation aluminum ingot inventory buildup in China, and adverse expectations on consumption and inflation driven by recent high fluctuations in oil prices all notably weighed on the upside room for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at highs.

[SMM Rare Earth News Flash] According to data released by CAAM, China's automobile production in March 2026 reached 2.917 million units, of which NEV production was 1.231 million units and internal combustion engine vehicles 1.686 million units. According to the SMM end-use demand model, NdFeB consumption from NEVs in March 2026 was 5,260.8 mt, and NdFeB consumption from internal combustion engine vehicles was 534.2 mt. Both NdFeB consumption from NEVs and internal combustion engine vehicles increased YoY and MoM.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2605 contract opened at 23,690 yuan/mt, briefly rising to a high of 23,725 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session. Bears then increased their open interest, and SHFE zinc fluctuated downward throughout the session, hitting a low of 23,570 yuan/mt near the close, ultimately settling down at 23,585 yuan/mt, a decline of 30 yuan/mt or 0.35%. Trading volume fell to 29,862 lots, while open interest increased by 951 lots to 77,560 lots.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: U.S.-Iran Tensions Fluctuate, LME Zinc Center Edges Up] Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3,318/mt. Early in the session, LME zinc fluctuated downward and hit a low of $3,297/mt during the night session. Subsequently, bulls increased open interest, and the LME zinc center shifted upward, touching a high of $3,338/mt near the end of the session, ultimately closing with a gain at $3,335/mt, up $10/mt, a rise of 0.3%. Trading volume increased to 8,912 lots, and open interest rose by 772 lots to 213,000 lots.