Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,964/mt, fluctuating rangebound around the daily average during the Asian session. It initially fell then rose during the European session, touching a high of $1,968.5/mt before pulling back again, exploring a low of $1,949.5/mt, and finally closed at $1,952/mt, down $14.5/mt, a decrease of 0.74%. During the Chinese New Year holiday, LME lead showed a weak and rangebound trend, overall trading between $1,943.5/mt and $1,974/mt. As of 18:00 on February 23, it closed at $1,962.5/mt, down $9.5/mt compared to the pre-holiday (February 13) closing price. SHFE lead was closed for the Chinese New Year holiday. On the macro front: Reportedly, US President Donald Trump posted on social media on February 21, stating that the "global import tariff" rate he announced the previous day on goods imported into the US would increase from 10% to 15%, "effective immediately." Global tariff changes became the main factor affecting market pricing during the holiday. US Customs stated that it would stop collecting tariffs ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court starting February 24. The US January CPI increased by 2.4% YoY, slowing down from expectations of 2.5%, hitting a new low since May 2025; core CPI rose 2.5% YoY, a new low since March 2021. The unexpected cooling of January inflation data added further support to market expectations for the US Fed to cut interest rates within the year. Domestically, China continued to promote large-scale equipment upgrades this year, with equipment renewal projects in multiple sectors accelerating their implementation. Currently, the new round of equipment upgrades for 2026 has been successively launched in 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, involving about 20 sectors including industry, electronic information, and energy conservation, carbon reduction, and environmental protection. Spot fundamentals: Before the Chinese New Year holiday, lead market trading gradually halted. On the last trading day before the holiday, SHFE lead showed a consolidating and pulling back trend, as traders closed positions for the holiday, and futures trading activity also declined synchronously. Suppliers largely stopped offering quotes or were already on holiday. The last batch of downstream enterprises entered the holiday state that afternoon, leaving the lead market in a state of no prices and no trading. Inventory side: On February 23, LME lead inventory was 286,325 mt, an increase of 53,675 mt compared to the pre-holiday (February 13) level of 232,650 mt. As of February 12, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions again refreshed the 5-month high. Today's lead price forecast: Due to varying holiday schedules for upstream and downstream enterprises during the Spring Festival, the main lead consumption end was almost entirely on holiday and shut down, while the refined lead supply end enterprises had fewer holiday shutdowns than downstream enterprises. Medium and large primary lead enterprises basically operated normally. Lead consumption was absent during the holiday period, leading to expectations of conventional inventory buildup for lead ingots after the holiday. Regarding post-holiday work resumption, lead-acid battery enterprises are expected to resume production gradually from the first to the second week after the holiday. However, as some downstream enterprises still had leftover lead ingot stockpiles from before the holiday, procurement expectations are limited for the first week after the holiday. Although secondary lead enterprises' production resumption plans are mostly scheduled for the second week after the holiday, primary lead smelters maintained relatively normal production. In-factory inventory accumulated during the Spring Festival holiday is expected to be gradually shipped under long-term contracts or transferred to social warehouses after the holiday. The expectation of lead ingot inventory buildup is also likely to be a main factor putting pressure on lead prices in the initial period after the holiday. As downstream lead enterprises resume work and lead consumption recovers normally, lead prices may see opportunities for fluctuating rebounds. Data source statement: Except for public information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

According to the Mining Journal, the Ecuadorian government intends to implement a new mining tax aimed at bridging the fiscal gap, but it may deal a severe blow to the exploration sector. The proposed mining inspection fee (Tasa de Fiscalización Minera) is expected to generate $229 million in annual tax revenue for Ecuador, with the intention of strengthening technical and environmental monitoring of the industry. This tax applies to all levels of mining activities, except for small-scale mining. The Ecuadorian Mining Chamber (CME) has strongly criticized this move, stating, "This matter was never consulted with the industry, and we believe it represents a significant technical obstacle to the responsible and sustainable development of the mining sector." While acknowledging the need for enhanced state control and industry regulation, the CME has criticized the structure of the tax. It is levied per hectare, with different tax rates for projects at various stages. The CME claims, "For medium-to-large-scale mining projects, especially those in the exploration phase, this approach is not feasible." The final tax amount may exceed the exploration investment of the project, the CME added. "This makes regulation an obstacle rather than a tool." Ecuador's largest mining projects include Lundin Gold's Fruta del Norte gold mine and EcuaCorriente's Mirador copper-gold mine. Exploration The CME has also criticized the new tax for imposing additional financial burdens on non-revenue-generating exploration companies, which are in the most vulnerable growth phase. "Although we understand that, as an administrative fee, it does not require formal legal authorization, it must adhere to the constitutional principles of appropriateness, reasonableness, and equality. From its design, this fee is unrelated to the cost of the services it provides or the economic capacity of taxpayers, and it may have an extraordinary impact on exploration activities," the CME stated. The CME's analysis indicates that this fee will make Ecuador less competitive in exploration compared to other Latin American countries. Ecuador's fee is $11.5 per hectare, while Colombia's is $6.7, Chile's is $4.5, and Peru's is $3. "Ecuador is the most expensive country for exploration in the region, and the new tax makes this difference even more pronounced," the CME said. In 2024, exploration investment in Ecuador was $67 million, compared to $493 million in Argentina, $568 million in Peru, and $637 million in Chile. In other aspects, the cost of mine construction in Ecuador is relatively high. Although the country provides mining investors with the ability to sign investment protection agreements, thereby stabilizing their financial situations, its mining law adopts a floating royalty rate that varies between 3% and 8% depending on changes in metal prices. Under the current gold and copper prices, mining companies are facing the situation of the highest royalty rate.

[Standard Lithium and Telescope Innovations Collaborate to Produce Next-Generation Solid-State Battery Materials] Standard Lithium Ltd. announced that, as part of its collaboration with Telescope Innovations, it has successfully produced battery-grade lithium sulfide. As previously mentioned, Standard Lithium has been working with its R&D partner, Telescope Innovations, to develop new and innovative conversion technologies for manufacturing next-generation battery materials. This new conversion process has now been successfully applied to convert lithium hydroxide, produced by Standard Lithium at its demonstration plant in southern Arkansas, into battery-grade lithium sulfide (Li(2)S). Samples of lithium sulfide have been shipped to solid-state battery companies in Asia and North America for ongoing testing and validation purposes. Lithium sulfide is a critical raw material required for many next-generation solid-state battery chemistries. However, despite its importance in next-generation battery technologies, lithium sulfide can only be produced commercially in very small quantities and at very high costs. The technological collaboration between the two teams has resulted in a novel, low-temperature, patented process with the following advantages: Raw material flexibility – Both lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate are viable raw materials; Impurity tolerance – Allows the use of technical-grade raw materials; Lower processing temperature (<100 °C) – Reduces equipment complexity and operating costs; and Enhanced manufacturing safety – Avoids high-temperature conditions and associated thermal risks. Source: juniorminingnetwork.com [Bolivian Court Suspends Sino-Russian Lithium Deal] It has been reported that Bolivia's plans to become a major lithium producer have hit a snag after a local court ordered the suspension of two major mining deals worth over $2 billion signed last year. These contracts were signed in 2023 and 2024 with China's CBC consortium (which includes battery manufacturer CATL) and Uranium One Group, a subsidiary of Russia's state nuclear corporation Rosatom, respectively. The deals were aimed at establishing direct lithium extraction (DLE) facilities at the Salar de Uyuni in southwestern Bolivia. This salt flat, which holds one of the world's largest lithium reserves, is part of a larger lithium triangle shared with Chile and Argentina. Last week, a mixed court in the village of Colcha K, located in the Potosí region, issued the suspension order following legal complaints from indigenous groups who argued that the projects violated their environmental rights and were allowed to proceed without formal consultation. Neither project has yet received legislative approval, but preliminary activities have already commenced on-site, which local groups claim were carried out without proper authorization or environmental assessments. Bolivia's state-owned lithium company, Yacimientos de Litio Bolivianos (YLB), holds a 51% stake in both enterprises. Omar Alarcon, the head of YLB, stated at a press conference last year that the proposed plant is expected to produce 35,000 mt of lithium carbonate annually. According to the Argentine newspaper Infobae , the court ruling will prohibit YLB and the Ministry of Hydrocarbons and Energy from taking any administrative or operational steps related to the contract until the judicial process is concluded. However, the Bolivian government insists that it has not yet officially received notification of the court ruling and maintains that the legislative process surrounding the contract will continue until official notification is received. Source: mining.com [Gabon Plans to Ban Manganese Ore Exports, Leading to a Decline in Eramet's Share Price] Eramet's shares plummeted on Monday after Gabon announced a ban on the export of unrefined manganese starting from 2029, which could disrupt the production of large-scale export-oriented steel raw materials by the French mining group in this West African country. The Gabon government announced the plan in a statement over the weekend, which comes as several African countries—including Guinea , with bauxite, Zimbabwe , with lithium, as well as Mali and Tanzania—are seeking to shift from raw material exports to local processing. Global demand for manganese, used in steel production and increasingly in EV batteries, has been growing. Eramet is the majority shareholder of Comilog, a Gabon-based manganese mining company whose Moanda mine is the largest in the world. In a statement, Eramet said it had taken note of the Gabon government's intention to ban the export of crude manganese starting from January 1, 2029, and would continue to cooperate with the authorities "in a spirit of constructive partnership and mutual respect." The group added that it is committed to safeguarding the 10,460 Gabon jobs maintained by Comilog and Setrag, Comilog's railway transport unit. Eramet's share price fell nearly 5.5% before recovering, ending the day down about 4% as of 0800 GMT. President Brice Oligui Nguema , who overthrew former President Ali Bongo in a coup in 2023 and was elected last month, is seeking to revive Gabon's beleaguered economy . This West African oil-exporting country holds some of the world's richest manganese deposits, primarily operated by Comilog and Chinese companies that export to China, Europe, and the US. Comilog, in which Gabon holds a minority stake, processes some manganese locally but primarily exports ore. In recent years, the Moanda mine and the Weda Bay nickel mine in Indonesia have driven Eramet's growth, while its historical nickel mining operations in New Caledonia have dried up due to losses and social unrest. In Indonesia, where nickel ore exports were previously banned to develop the local industry, Eramet signed a memorandum of understanding with sovereign fund Danatama last week to explore potential investments in nickel processing. Source: reuters.com [Rio Tinto revises costs for Serbian lithium project] Chad Blewitt, Managing Director of Rio Tinto's Jadar lithium mine, said on Wednesday that the company is revising the costs for its Serbian lithium project, which has been identified by the European Commission as one of 13 strategic new critical raw materials projects . The project has been questioned by environmental groups and many Serbs on environmental grounds and sparked massive street protests in 2022, leading to the government revoking all of Rio Tinto's exploration licenses. The Constitutional Court overturned this decision last year and restored the licenses. Rio Tinto is the only major mining company betting on lithium (used in EV batteries), accelerating its development pace through three new deals in the past six months: acquiring US-based Arcadium Lithium for $6.7 billion and two projects in Chile for over $1 billion. The lithium market has slumped as a wave of new supply overwhelms weaker-than-expected demand for EV batteries. While demand forecasts for the metal are more optimistic over the next decade, it will take years to know whether this bet will pay off. If implemented, Rio Tinto's Jadar project could meet 90% of Europe's current lithium demand. But protesters in Serbia have threatened to block highways and railways if the project proceeds. "Whatever happens next will involve multiple stages of review and public consultation," Blewitt said. "It (the project) will place Serbia at the forefront of the green and digital revolution." Source: reuters.com

On Wednesday, the South Korean stock market surged, leading gains in the Asia-Pacific stock markets . This followed the victory of Lee Jae-myung, leader of South Korea's Democratic Party, in the presidential election, ending months of leadership vacuum in the country and eliminating political uncertainty in South Korea . As of now, South Korea's benchmark stock index, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), has risen nearly 2.5% to 2,765.97 points, more than 20% above the recent low of 2,293.7 points set in April. This means the index has entered a technical bull market . Since the beginning of this year, the index has risen more than 15% in total . In addition, the South Korean won also strengthened today. As of now, the South Korean won has appreciated about 0.5% against the US dollar . However, South Korean government bonds have underperformed, with the 10-year bond yield rising sharply, reflecting market concerns that the new government may implement expansionary fiscal policies, leading to an increase in bond supply . As South Korea's election authority confirmed Lee Jae-myung's election, he has officially commenced his presidential term. This has eliminated one of the biggest obstacles affecting the local market—political uncertainty . In April this year, South Korea's Constitutional Court ruled to uphold the impeachment of Yoon Suk Yeol, who was subsequently removed from the presidency. According to South Korea's Constitution, after the president is absent due to impeachment or other reasons, the country must hold an election to select the next president within 60 days. Therefore, the election originally scheduled for 2027 was brought forward to June 3 this year . Currently, market focus has shifted to Lee Jae-myung's policies aimed at boosting economic growth , with a focus on increasing government spending, improving corporate governance, strengthening labor protections, and completing ongoing tariff and exchange rate negotiations with the Trump administration . South Korea's economy contracted in the first quarter of this year, before US President Trump announced a comprehensive tariff increase in early April, highlighting the weakness of the South Korean economy . Shawn Oh, a stock trader at NH Investment & Securities, said, "Today's (market) focus will be on the new President Lee Jae-myung." He added that the market may react to Lee's commitment to improving corporate governance . Despite facing political uncertainty and economic downturn, the South Korean stock market and the won have shown resilience this year, outperforming most Asian peers. In April this year, after Yoon Suk Yeol stepped down, the won gained support and became one of the best-performing currencies in Asia . It is worth noting that during his campaign, Lee Jae-myung stated that his target for the KOSPI index was 5,000 points , but he did not specify a timetable. This goal underscores his emphasis on the stock market, and he has also pledged to boost the valuation of local stocks and end the "Korea Discount" phenomenon.

[SMM Analysis]This article is the first in the series, aiming to analyze the price impact of Chinese-produced energy storage cells exported directly, transshipped via Malaysia, and the hypothetical scenario of local production of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) energy storage cells in the US, from May 14 to August 13. Some of the data used are theoretical, which may make the results appear on the higher side. The author will explain the reasons for each data point in detail to allow readers to replace the relevant data and obtain more targeted conclusions. Follow-up articles (II) and (III) will analyze the price impact due to different tariffs at subsequent time points.

[SMM Analysis] This article is the first in the series, aiming to analyze the impact of price changes on energy storage battery cells produced in China through direct export, re-export via Malaysia, and the potential impact if the US were to produce LFP (for ESS) battery cells locally during the period from May 14 to August 13. Some of the data values are relatively theoretical, which may result in seemingly high outcomes. The author will endeavor to explain in detail the reasons for each data value, enabling readers to subsequently replace the relevant data themselves to obtain more targeted conclusions. There will be follow-up articles (Part II and Part III) aimed at analyzing the price impacts caused by different tariffs at subsequent time periods.

According to a report on Mining.com, the US Supreme Court declined on Tuesday to hear an appeal by Apache Stronghold (AS) aimed at blocking the development of the Resolution copper mine, a joint venture between Rio Tinto and BHP. Apache Stronghold, comprising the San Carlos Apache tribe from southeastern Arizona and conservationists, appealed a 2024 lower court ruling that allowed federal land exchange, enabling the mining companies to acquire land considered sacred by the Apache. On May 9, a federal judge in Arizona ordered a temporary halt to the land exchange pending the outcome of the appeal to the Supreme Court. Rio Tinto holds a 55% stake in the Resolution copper mine, with the remaining 45% held by BHP, and Rio Tinto remains the operator. Rio Tinto has invested over $2 billion in the project, which is set to become the largest copper mine in North America. The mine, the world's third-largest known copper deposit, could meet a quarter of the US's copper demand for decades. Apache Stronghold first filed a lawsuit in 2021, alleging that the project violated constitutional and legal protections for religious freedom. They claimed that the mine would devastate Oak Flat (Chi’chil Biłdagoteel in Apache), a sacred site where Western Apache people conduct traditional ceremonies, including a four-day coming-of-age ritual for young women. The group argued that the mine would violate the 1852 treaty, which obligated the US government to protect Apache lands and ensure the tribe's "prosperity and happiness for generations." Under the National Defense Authorization Act signed by then-President Obama in 2014, Congress authorized the land exchange. The law allowed Rio Tinto and BHP to exchange land for Oak Flat, located approximately 70 miles (113 kilometers) east of Phoenix. The transfer depended on an environmental impact statement issued in the final days of Trump's first term in January 2021. However, in March 2021, the Biden administration withdrew the statement, halting the transfer. The US Forest Service (USFS) is expected to reissue the environmental assessment report, potentially allowing the land exchange to proceed as early as June 16. Rio Tinto is expanding its copper assets to meet growing global demand, with analysts predicting that supply will soon fall short of demand. In 2023, the company commenced underground mining at its Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia, which is set to become the world's fourth-largest copper mine by 2030. In Peru, Rio Tinto is collaborating with Codelco and First Quantum Minerals of Canada to develop the La Granja project, one of the world's largest undeveloped copper deposits. Rio Tinto is also investing in greener extraction technologies, including Nuton—a bioheap leaching technology for copper extraction from tailings and low-grade ore, which was jointly developed with Arizona Sonoran Copper.

[Summary of the Morning Meeting on May 30] Affected by the inventory of some raw materials and weak order demand, during the traditional procurement period this week, the inquiry and transaction activity of precursor enterprises for nickel salts were both low. Supply side, the order signing situation for nickel salt producers in June was poor this week, and some large nickel salt enterprises planned to carry out shutdown maintenance work in June. Given the weak demand coupled with falling costs, some nickel salt producers have shown signs of loosening their quotes.

Today, gold stocks continued their downward trend. As of press time, Lingbao Gold (03330.HK), Chifeng Gold (06693.HK), Tongguan Gold (00340.HK), and Shandong Gold (01787.HK) fell by 6.41%, 4.65%, 3.70%, and 1.83%, respectively. Note: Performance of gold stocks In terms of news, on May 28 local time, the US Court of International Trade ruled that the "Emancipation Day" tariff policy implemented by the Trump administration, invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, constituted an ultra vires act and issued a permanent injunction. The Court of International Trade, located in Manhattan, New York, stated that the US Constitution grants the US Congress exclusive authority to regulate trade with other countries, and that the emergency powers claimed by the President to protect the US economy do not override these authorities. The lawsuit was filed by the Center for Justice and Democracy, a US non-profit, non-partisan litigation organization, on behalf of five small US businesses affected by the tariffs, marking the first major legal challenge to Trump's tariff policy. This ruling significantly alleviated market concerns about the escalation of global trade frictions, causing US stock futures to rise in response, while gold, as a safe-haven asset, faced selling pressure. As of press time, COMEX gold fell by 1% to $3,289.1. Note: Performance of COMEX gold How do institutions view the subsequent performance of gold prices? CITIC Futures pointed out that although recurring trade frictions may support gold's short-term fluctuation upward, factors such as the delay in the US Fed's first rate cut and the absence of a US debt credit risk outbreak make it difficult for gold prices to achieve a breakthrough rally. Jinrui Futures believes that after the postponement of Trump's tariff implementation, the market has already digested the worst of the negative news, and technical indicators suggest that gold prices need to undergo a period of consolidation with reduced volatility. Goldman Sachs, however, goes against the trend by recommending a long-term increase in gold allocation, citing rising institutional credibility risks in the US and sustained central bank gold-buying demand.

SMM Nickel News on May 29: Macro News: (1) The US Court of International Trade ruled on Wednesday local time that US President Trump did not have the authority to impose a blanket tariff on nearly all countries, thereby declaring the "Emancipation Day" tariff measure on April 2, which triggered a global trade war and could have upended the world economy, legally invalid. The Court of International Trade in Manhattan, New York, stated that the US Constitution grants the US Congress the exclusive power to regulate trade with other countries, and that the emergency powers claimed by the President to protect the US economy do not override these powers. (2) He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, met with Dan Simkowitz, Co-President of Morgan Stanley, at the Great Hall of the People on the 28th. He Lifeng stated that China is committed to promoting high-quality development through high-level opening-up, which will energize and add momentum to both the Chinese and global economies. He welcomed more US financial institutions, including Morgan Stanley, and long-term capital to continue deepening mutually beneficial cooperation with China and actively participating in the construction and development of China's capital market. Simkowitz expressed his delight at the substantive progress made in the US-China economic and trade talks, stating that Morgan Stanley would continue to deepen its presence in the Chinese market and provide high-quality services to promote investment cooperation between US and Chinese enterprises. Spot Market: Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price is 120,000-123,050 yuan/mt, with an average price of 121,525 yuan/mt, a decrease of 1,725 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for the mainstream spot premiums of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 2,300-2,700 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,500 yuan/mt, an increase of 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The premiums and discounts quotation range for Russian nickel is 100-400 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 250 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. Due to the significant drop in SHFE nickel futures prices yesterday, trading volume in the afternoon spot market was active, with the premium range at 2,200-2,500 yuan/mt. Today, there is less refined nickel circulating in the market, and premiums have risen significantly. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2507) plummeted sharply yesterday, closing at 119,950 yuan/mt, a daily decline of 2.1%. The cumulative weekly decline reached 3.2%, breaking through the key support level of 120,000 yuan/mt. The night session continued to probe the bottom, touching a low of 118,630 yuan/mt. Prices rebounded somewhat in the morning session today, returning to the 120,000 yuan/mt level, but still remained in the doldrums. As of 11:30, the closing price was 120,340 yuan/mt, up 0.72%. In the medium and long-term, the contradiction of global nickel overcapacity remains unresolved, with the nickel market under triple pressure of "high supply, weak demand, and tight funds". The short-term oscillation bottom is seen at 115,000 yuan/mt, with the top under pressure at 123,000 yuan/mt.