[SMM Hot Topic] Middle East Steel Export Flows Shift: Finished Products Stall and Steel Billet Counterattacks Looking back at 2025, the Middle East market was undoubtedly the most dazzling "emerging dynamic market" in China's overseas steel landscape. In 2025, China's total steel exports to the Middle East reached 15.81 million mt, with monthly shipments basically stable in the high range of 1.2–1.3 million mt. Against the backdrop of total annual steel exports of 134 million mt, up 14% YoY, the Middle East market accounted for 11%–12% of China's total overseas steel export share. This means that in a single geo-economic region, its share and strategic reliance were second only to Southeast Asia, serving as the "second largest core pillar" for China's steel going global. In terms of product mix, high-added-value HRC (29% share), steel pipes essential for oil and gas projects (18% share), and medium-thickness plates (14% share) formed the three dominant players, reflecting the region's strong diversified industrial and infrastructure throughput capacity. However, it was precisely due to such a massive trade base in 2025 and high reliance on conventional Persian Gulf shipping lanes that when geopolitical storms suddenly struck and straits were dramatically blocked, the resulting "broad market stall" and supply chain disruption were so severe. Below, we will analyze in order: the specific situation of China's steel exports to the Middle East, how cargo pressure was shifted through port replacements during the strait blockade, and how the export landscape will be reshaped after the latest US-Israel negotiations? The "Stall" and Structural Anomaly of China's Steel Exports to the Middle East Data Source: SMM, China's General Administration of Customs First, let's look at total export performance. According to SMM historical data and the latest customs export trends, China's total steel exports to the Middle East in the first four months of 2026 plummeted from 5.47 million mt in the same period of 2025 to 3.57 million mt, with April exports directly halving. Specifically, among China's 5.47 million mt of steel exports to the Middle East from January to April 2025, a highly advanced finished-product-oriented export characteristic was evident. HRC (29%), steel pipe (18%), coated steel (15%), and medium-thickness plates (14%) constituted the four mainstays of China’s steel trade. In terms of destination countries, Saudi Arabia’s rigid demand for offshore/oil & gas pipe (986,000 mt) and the UAE’s strong processing throughput of general HRC (1.607 million mt) and medium-thickness plates (779,000 mt) jointly established the traditional “dual-core consumption hinterland” within the Persian Gulf. Data source: SMM, General Administration of Customs of China Supply Shock and Physical Scissors Gap: The “Billet Export Bonanza” Under a Double Squeeze Since the start of 2026, the blockade of the Persian Gulf Strait caused by geopolitical conflicts significantly weakened overall shipments, while a dramatic “underlying mutation” simultaneously unfolded in the product mix. Steel billet, a minor product that previously accounted for only an 8% share (431,000 mt), registered a strong countertrend increase of 24% in the first four months of 2026. According to the SMM survey, the underlying driver of this anomaly originated from a localized supply shock induced by geopolitical shifts in Iran. If the closure of the Persian Gulf Strait severed the “aorta” of Middle Eastern steel imports, the sudden destruction of Iran’s two largest steel giants—Mobarakeh Steel Company (MSC) in Isfahan and Khuzestan Steel Company (KSC)—on March 27, 2026, completely ignited a “raw material upheaval” within the region. Iran is the world’s tenth-largest and the Middle East’s largest crude steel producer (accounting for over 50% of the region’s total crude steel output), with annual steel exports exceeding 10 million mt, among which semi-finished steel billets are the absolute mainstay. Mobarakeh (MSC) has an annual capacity of 11.8 million mt (20% of Iran’s total capacity), making it the undisputed “King of Flat Products/Sheets & Plates” in the Middle East; Khuzestan (KSC) is Iran’s second-largest steel producer and its most critical production base for slabs and billets. Data source: SMM, General Administration of Customs of China Under normal conditions, Iran was the primary supplier of low-priced steel billets to local rolling mills in the Middle East. With the sharp contraction in Iran's external supply, rolling mills in the Middle East, particularly in Oman and parts of the UAE outside the Gulf that were not directly affected by the blockade, faced severe raw material supply disruption risks. To maintain production, local buyers quickly released a large number of urgent inquiries to the international market. According to SMM survey, the huge demand gap for steel billets created by Iran's exit was filled and shared by supplies from China, India, and Russia. Because the local shortage was mainly crude steel raw material for rolling sheets and plates, and the equipment destruction from explosions meant that rolling lines were the first to restart, the main incremental product in these counter-trend orders was steel slab. This situation shares similarities with the article at https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bsrZaRRSRDHC_FmGLulJOQ (Middle East turmoil triggers "mismatch", China accelerates filling a supply vacuum of about 2.3 million mt in Southeast Asia), which mentioned that China would accelerate taking over steel billet supply gaps. That is, despite the decline in steel exports this year, billet exports also achieved counter-trend growth. Stock Game: The "X-Shaped Crossover" of Inside-Gulf Shutdowns and Outside-Gulf Safe Havens Verified by SMM through freight forwarders, steel trade (especially medium-thickness plates, pipes, and steel billets) relies heavily on bulk or breakbulk vessels. When container liners encounter blockades, they can easily reroute by amending bookings via computer systems, but the diversion of bulk carriers faces rigid constraints from destination port drafts, specialized handling equipment (such as large quay cranes), and inland truck connections. Therefore, over the past two months, the supply chain staged a dramatic "port drift" inside and outside the Persian Gulf. The following uses SMM's panoramic shipping data to explain in detail the changes in cargo flow between ports. Under normal conditions, over 70% of China's steel shipments to the Middle East converged densely on Jebel Ali Port inside the Persian Gulf and Dammam Port on the eastern coast of Saudi Arabia. But after the strait blockade, steel port arrivals at these two traditional hubs showed a historic "physical shock" in SMM's high-frequency shipping data (falling to zero from April to May). Meanwhile, the diverted cargo, fighting to survive, surged wildly toward alternative ports outside the strait, tearing open a "lifeline of safety" spatially: ① "Overload Surge" at Oman's Port of Sohar: As the most critical cross-border multimodal transshipment hub outside the Gulf, its port arrivals in April surged nearly fivefold MoM. Large batches of Chinese HRC and steel billet originally destined for the inner Gulf were forced ashore here, causing massive congestion at the port in May as cross-border heavy truck capacity collapsed. ② "Western Route Counterflow" at Saudi Arabia's Jeddah Port: Saudi Arabia abandoned its eastern sea route (Dammam Port) nationwide, forcibly redirecting all Chinese orders to Jeddah on the Red Sea side, causing its throughput to surge to a peak of 361,000 mt in April. Source: SMM, Google Maps However, it should be noted that while cargo can be transferred via other ports in the short term, port arrivals in May have already shown a weakening trend again. The reason is that alternative ports outside the Gulf simply cannot handle such massive and concentrated cargo volumes, leading to extremely severe congestion. According to SMM's survey, because navigation within the Gulf is no longer possible, some shipping lines originally bound for Jebel Ali had to divert to Fujairah, but are still queuing for berths. Jeddah Port faces similar issues. With tight capacity, prices keep surging, and transportation faces severe obstacles. Source: SMM Outlook for Change: With the US-Iran blockade-lifting deal, what impact will the shipping supply chain face? After 108 days of the "dual blockade" (Iran's blockade of the strait and the US's counter-blockade of Iranian ports) that gripped the lifeline of global energy and commodities, the US and Iran officially issued successive high-profile statements announcing a ceasefire memorandum of understanding. The relevant timeline is summarized below. Data source: Compiled by SMM from public channels The news, once released, triggered a strong market reaction. On one hand, there are expectations for export increments from shipping recovery; on the other hand, there are certain demand expectations for post-disaster reconstruction. According to the latest SMM survey, most exporters have not responded enthusiastically to the lifting of the blockade and remain skeptical about its actual implementation. Therefore, from the perspective of actual order-taking, shipments to the Middle East still need 3 to 4 weeks to be verified. If a full lifting is confirmed, the "demand backlog" caused by the earlier shipping disruptions will see a concentrated release. Based on past customs data and the local supply-demand balance table, SMM roughly predicts that finished steel products will experience strong growth expectations, potentially filling a disaster-induced gap of approximately 1.7-2.1 million mt. Among them, HRC accounts for the highest proportion (29%) of China's finished steel exports to the Middle East. Although the Middle East's largest flat steel giant, Iran's Mobarakeh Steel Company (MSC), has reported production resumptions for its blast furnace previously damaged by war, its capacity is in a post-disaster repair phase and is not expected to fill the local gap in the short term. However, recent market rumors suggest that Indian resources are seizing the Middle Eastern market at lower prices, which will also pose some impact on China's export order-taking. However, for semi-finished products, the reason Chinese steel billets have been "hot" in recent months is the supply gap caused by the strait blockade and the bombing of Iranian steel mills. Once Iran's logistics fully recover, Chinese steel billets will lose their advantage in absolute price, logistics distance, and surrounding multilateral competition, and the demand gap in Southeast Asia previously filled by substituting Iranian sources may also be reclaimed. Recently, according to SMM surveys, billet resources are already circulating in the Middle Eastern market. Through the following comparison of comprehensive landed costs (CFR) for billets in the Middle East, it can be clearly seen that Chinese resources are under comprehensive pressure: Therefore, steel billet exports to the Middle East are expected to be somewhat limited, with competition only possible at lower prices. Preliminary forecasts indicate a pressure reduction of 50,000–250,000 mt. However, we need to broaden our perspective to the global multilateral trade context, and we must not fall into excessive pessimism due to localized marginal reductions. Although the billets exported to the Middle East are under pressure, the incremental steel billet volumes that previously replaced Iranian exports to Southeast Asia may not necessarily be wiped out. Given the uncertainty of the Middle East situation and based on considerations of a more stable supply chain, Southeast Asian buyers may continue to source from Chinese suppliers. Therefore, against the backdrop of an overall steel recovery and resilience in steel billet prices, SMM maintains its earlier view, holding a moderately optimistic stance on annual steel exports, with expectations of "steady incremental growth." Finally, it needs to be added that, currently, due to severe port congestion, even if the strait is confirmed passable, it will still take a long time for actual cargo to arrive and cannot immediately be reflected in the data. At the same time, ocean freight rates will also maintain high-level fluctuations in the short term due to unfavorable port cargo pick-up. 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[SMM Aluminum Weekly Review: Geopolitical Premium Recedes, Coupled with Hawkish US Fed, Aluminum Prices Fall Under Pressure Both at Home and Abroad]

The Singapore International Ferrous Week (SIFW) 2026 officially kicked off on June 16, 2026. Logan Lu, CEO of Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), attended the opening ceremony as a distinguished guest. Co-hosted by SGX and Green Esteel with support from Enterprise Singapore, the event runs from June 15 to June 19. Its core summit, Singapore Iron & Steel Conference, attracted over 350+ participants including miners and steel mills from Australia, Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea, serving as Southeast Asia’s flagship ferrous industry exchange platform. SGX CEO Loh Boon Chye delivered a keynote, highlighting trends in iron ore pricing mechanisms and financialization. He noted that physical trade evolution calls for diversified, differentiated pricing benchmarks to streamline risk management. Iron ore has grown into a mainstream investable commodity, included in major global indices; SGX has partnered with SummerHaven to launch tradable iron ore products. Leveraging strengths in physical trade, shipping, financing and risk hedging, Singapore acts as a neutral global commodity hub, the core rationale behind SIFW. Singapore’s Minister of Trade and Industry Alvin Tan likened geopolitical and economic headwinds to kryptonite weighing on the sector, yet underscored steel’s strong resilience. He outlined four growth pillars: tapping robust Asian steel demand led by Southeast Asia and India; utilizing Singapore’s full industrial and financial ecosystem for supply chain and price risk management; advancing AI and digitalization to boost operational efficiency; and accelerating low-carbon steel and maritime decarbonization amid tightening global carbon regulations. The Singapore New Energy Metals & Materials Forum , co-organized by Green Esteel and SMM , was launched alongside this event with the goal to advance low-carbon metal collaboration. Satvinder Singh, Deputy Secretary General of the ASEAN Economic Community, delivered the opening remarks for the forum, focusing on the industry resilience of the global ferrous metals sector amid multiple challenges and echoing the four development strategy recommendations mentioned above: deepening engagement in Asia, basing in Singapore, technology enablement, and green transformation. He also highlighted Singapore’s positioning as a commodities trading hub, as well as local supporting measures for industrial digitalization and the low-carbon transition. On the same day, Logan Lu arranged two important opening events. At 10:30 a.m., he also attended the opening of the inaugural Singapore New Energy Metals & Materials Forum, co-hosted by Green Esteel and SMM, and engaged in in-depth exchanges with enterprises across the industry chain in and outside China on core topics such as ferrous metals, the global supply chain layout for new energy metals, and the industry’s green and low-carbon transformation. The Singapore New Energy Metals & Materials Forum represents a strategic extension into the fast-growing track of new energy metals and new materials. The forum adopts an integrated “Forum + Exhibition” model, bringing together global industry leaders, policy researchers, investment institutions, traders, and technology R&D and manufacturing producers to jointly assess the industry’s future development direction. As the global energy transition continues to accelerate, new energy metals and high-end new materials are a critical foundation for the low-carbon economy and the development of renewable energy. Coupled with multiple variables such as changes in the geopolitical environment, the restructuring of critical minerals supply chains, and adjustments to the global trade system, the industry is facing new opportunities and challenges. Centered on six major themes—global macro economy, supply and demand for critical metals, industry chain integration, supply chain resilience, industry investment, and breakthroughs in new materials technologies—the forum promotes global resource matching and strategic cooperation across the new energy metals industry chain through keynote speeches, panel discussions, business matchmaking, and industry exhibitions, thereby driving the industry’s sustainable development.

BHP is reportedly advancing plans to sell approximately US$1.5 billion worth of power transmission assets in Chile, including around 1,000 km of transmission lines supplying electricity to its Escondida, Spence and Cerro Colorado copper operations. According to media reports, the transaction could be completed as early as this year, although the final structure and potential buyers are still under review. The move as part of BHP’s broader strategy to streamline its portfolio and focus on core commodities such as copper. The company has continued to expand its copper exposure through projects including the Vicuña copper district development in Argentina, driven by growing demand linked to electrification and the energy transition.

[SMM Daily Review: Silver Prices Rise for Four Straight Days, Spot Premiums Steady, Trading Weak] SMM June 17: The second phase of the US-Iran agreement was implemented, crude oil plunged, dragging down commodities, while gold's consecutive gains provided support. Spot premiums held steady, consumption was weak, and the market awaited guidance from the US Fed's interest rate decision.

[Geopolitical Risk Premium Exits Market, Aluminum Prices Under Short-Term Pressure and Volatility] On the macro front, the US and Iran have completed signing an electronic MOU. Expectations of geopolitical easing continue to materialize, market panic over the Middle East conflict continues to fade, and the geopolitical risk premium for commodities has weakened significantly. US May CPI rose 4.2% YoY, hitting a three-year high, while core CPI also strengthened. The market continues to bet on the Fed restarting rate hikes within the year, and expectations of tightening liquidity continue to suppress metal valuations. On the fundamentals side, the Middle East conflict caused involuntary production cuts in overseas aluminum capacity. Expectations of a global supply deficit continue to widen, and coupled with expectations of rising energy costs, this provides strong bottom support for LME aluminum. China’s inventory destocking trend has been established, and the destocking logic continues to be realized. The rebound in the proportion of liquid aluminum, support from export demand, and supply normalization compressing aluminum ingot formation—these three fundamental factors jointly drive the continuation of destocking. SMM maintains its forecast that inventory will fall to around 1.28 million mt by late June, and may further approach 1.2 million mt by end-June/early July, bringing some support to aluminum prices. However, the pressure from high domestic inventory remains relatively pronounced. Coupled with the currently bearish macro sentiment dominating the market, short-term domestic aluminum prices are mainly in the doldrums, with volatile adjustments.

June 16 (SMM) — Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper fell 0.47%, SHFE aluminum lost 1.69%, SHFE lead gained 0.96%, SHFE zinc added 0.45%, SHFE tin climbed 1.17%, and SHFE nickel edged up 0.27%. In addition, the most-traded bonded aluminum futures contract dropped 1.03%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.48%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract slid 2.4%, the most-traded silicon metal contract lost 1.6%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract tumbled 5.01%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore dipped 0.2%, rebar declined 0.38%, HRC edged down 0.24%, while stainless steel surged 2.67%. In the coking coal and coke segment, the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.74%, while the most-traded coke contract rose 0.1%. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.48%, LME aluminum lost 0.71%, LME lead gained 0.18%, LME zinc added 0.14%, LME tin dropped 0.63%, and LME nickel rose 0.34%. In precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.21% and COMEX silver lost 0.68%. On the domestic precious metals side, the most-traded SHFE gold contract gained 1.63% and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.65%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.44% and the most-traded palladium futures contract lost 1.33%. As of the midday close, the most-traded containerized freight index (European service) futures contract gained 1.42% to 3,834 points. Selected futures midday prices as of 11:39 on June 16: Spot and fundamentals Silver: In the spot market, overall quoted price spreads remained wide today. The consumer market showed overall weakness in mid-to-late June, with the continued rally in silver prices dampening some demand... Macro front China: [National Bureau of Statistics: Value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 4.5% in May; national economy ran generally stable and progressed toward new, higher-quality growth] In May, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments earnestly implemented the decisions and arrangements of the Central Committee and the State Council. They adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while maintaining stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy on all fronts, accelerated the building of a new development paradigm, earnestly carried out more proactive and impactful macro policies, and effectively addressed external shocks and challenges. Production and supply rose steadily, employment and prices remained generally stable, foreign trade continued to demonstrate resilience, new growth drivers grew stronger, and the national economy sustained a development trend of overall stability while progressing toward new, higher-quality growth. NBS data showed that in May, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 4.5% YoY in real terms, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. On a MoM basis, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.40% in May. From January to May, it grew by 5.4% YoY. [From Scale Expansion to Resilience Allocation 《China Bulk Commodity Development Report》 Released] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing today (June 16) released the *China Bulk Commodity Development Report (2026)*. According to the report, China remains one of the most important import markets for bulk commodities globally, with imports of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities staying at high levels. In the face of challenges, the bulk commodity market has shown enhanced resilience. The report indicates that China's bulk commodity market from 2025 to 2026 has generally exhibited a fundamental pattern of "macro pressure, market divergence, intensifying external shocks, enhanced trade resilience, and accelerated capacity building." China's bulk commodity trade is shifting from scale expansion to resilience-oriented allocation. In 2025, China's merchandise trade scale maintained relatively strong resilience, and major bulk commodity imports remained at high levels. Among them, imports of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities continued to demonstrate the global absorption capacity of the Chinese market. (CCTV News) [PBOC Reverse Repo Net Injection Today of RMB 296.5 Billion] The PBOC today conducted RMB 449.5 billion of 7-day reverse repo operations. As RMB 153 billion of 7-day reverse repo matured today, the net injection reached RMB 296.5 billion for the day. As for the US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index rose 0.02% to 99.69. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in June is 98.5%, with a 1.5% probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate cut. The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged through July is 91.3%, a cumulative 25 bp rate hike is 7.4%, and a cumulative 25 bp rate cut is 1.4%. Falconio Leslie, head of taxable fixed income strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management, said that after the US and Iran announced a deal, oil prices pulled back, the US Treasury market strengthened, and pressure on the Fed to raise rates this year was easing. Falconio Leslie said: "Even before the ceasefire agreement was reached, oil prices had already started to pull back, yet the two-year US Treasury yield continued to rise because the market had priced in a near-100% probability of a rate hike in December.""The current situation is that oil prices are falling, and the market is gradually withdrawing these rate hike expectations. As a result, the two-year US Treasury yield has started to pull back." The newly appointed Fed Chairman Wash will chair his first interest rate decision this week. Against the backdrop of earlier crude oil price surges reigniting inflationary pressures, voices within the FOMC supporting rate hikes this year have been increasing. Falconio said she expects the FOMC to formally drop its easing bias at this week's meeting, making the policy outlook more hawkish. But she still believes the Fed's next move will be an interest rate cut, and it will happen in 2027. US asset management company PGIM holds a fringe view, believing the Fed will hike rates three times this year to curb overheating, and then reverse the hikes in 2027 . The company had previously expected in April that the Fed would cut interest rates this year. PGIM stated that the US economy is "exceptionally strong" and inflation remains persistently high, requiring a new approach. Given this backdrop, and considering that the Fed has failed to achieve its 2% target for five consecutive years, PGIM expects the Fed to hike rates three times this year to bolster its credibility and anchor inflation expectations. PGIM said, "If the rate hikes are framed as 'precautionary' measures to address supply-side inflation and recent long-term Treasury yield fluctuations, then Wash will gain political support." However, PGIM said it expects the Fed "will reverse these hikes relatively quickly, with three rate cuts in 2027 and another in 2028, bringing the terminal rate to 3.375% — below the current rate and possibly close to the neutral rate." (Jin10 Data APP) In other currencies: The Bank of Japan raised its key rate by 25 basis points, lifting its target rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, the highest level in 31 years, in line with market expectations, after standing pat at its previous three meetings. The BOJ raised rates to the highest in 31 years on Tuesday, a long-awaited move signaling its commitment to tackling inflation risks from the Middle East conflict. At the end of the two-day meeting on Tuesday, the board voted 7-1 to raise the short-term policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0%. This marked the first rate hike since last December, bringing the BOJ's policy rate to a level not seen since 1995. BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo was absent from the meeting and did not vote, as he was hospitalized for medical treatment. An afternoon press conference will be led by another BOJ deputy governor, Uchida Shinichi, and his remarks will be closely watched for how the BOJ will continue to assess the negative economic impact of the Iran war. (Jinshi Data APP) [RBA holds rates steady as expected, but warns rate hikes may not be over] The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% on Tuesday, saying the economy is slowing despite tighter financial conditions, but warned it could hike again if needed to control inflation. The RBA said inflation remains high and the central bank will do whatever is necessary to bring it down, "including by raising the cash rate target further if needed." Markets had already priced in a hold, as domestic inflation, consumption, and employment data continued to soften; meanwhile, the Middle East peace deal and moves to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices lower, reducing inflation risks. The Board said in its statement: "The resolution of the Middle East conflict is still at an early stage, and there remain plausible scenarios where inflation is above, and activity is below, the expectations set out in the May baseline forecasts. It will take some time for global oil supply issues to be resolved, which will continue to put upward pressure on global energy prices and inflation." The unanimous decision was largely in line with expectations, with swap markets pricing in around a 30% chance of an RBA rate hike in August and only 16 basis points of tightening for the full year—equivalent to less than one hike. (Jinshi Data APP) On the data front: Today will bring the US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 30, US May housing starts annualized, US May building permits, US May import price index month-over-month, the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision for June 16, Germany's June ZEW economic sentiment index, the Eurozone's June ZEW economic sentiment index, Japan's central bank target rate for June 16, and other data. Also watch for: The State Council Information Office holds a press conference on national economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology holds a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan. The RBA announces its rate decision, and RBA Governor Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference. On the crude oil front: As of 11:39, crude prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 0.09% and Brent down 0.26%. With the Trump administration about to complete the plan to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to ease the surge in fuel prices triggered by the Iran war, the US emergency crude stockpile has fallen to its lowest level since 1983. According to data released by the US Department of Energy on Monday, the SPR—established after the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s—has dropped to about 340 million barrels, near its all-time low. If the plan is completed, this will be the second-largest release in the history of the reserve, leaving about 243 million barrels, which is only around a third of its statutory capacity. The dwindling inventory reduces the US's flexibility in responding to future supply disruptions. A Department of Energy spokesperson said the government is managing the reserve in accordance with its intended use, which is to help stabilize the oil market, protect the US from supply disruptions, and make the US more energy-secure. (Jin10 Data App) Morgan Stanley sharply lowered its oil price forecasts for the coming quarters, as a tentative agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is expected to restore regional oil production and increase supply. Analysts including Martijn Rats said in a June 15 report that Brent crude is expected to average $90 per barrel in Q3, down from a previous forecast of $100 per barrel, and $80 per barrel in the final three months of the year, a decline of $15 from the earlier estimate. They also noted that the expected timeline for the region's production recovery has been moved forward by one to two weeks. "Many issues still need to be negotiated, and key risks remain, but this is a significant step towards de-escalating the conflict and boosting oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz," they said, adding, "Production is expected to resume gradually from mid-July, with output anticipated to recover to 50% by September, 80% by December, and the remainder early in 2027." (Jin10 Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

From June 3 to June 5, Indonesia Critical Minerals 2026 was held at the Pullman Jakarta Central Park in Jakarta, Indonesia. The conference was organized by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and co-organized by the Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI) , the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia , the National Economic Council of Indonesia , and MMR , in a strategic partnership with the Jakarta Futures Exchange . The conference featured six dedicated forums: the main forum, the nickel and cobalt forum, the tin forum, the coal & energy transition forum, the aluminum forum, and dedicated sub-forums, attracting 3,500+ attendees from 45 countries and regions worldwide, featuring more than 120+ speakers sharing insights on market prices, supply-demand patterns, industry policies, low-carbon development, and ESG development, etc. Additionally, SMM has also meticulously arranged two rounds of panel discussions: Senior Executives' Roadmaps to Overcome Resource, Cost, Technology & ESG Challenges The "Green Premium" Myth vs. Reality: Who Will Pay for Decarbonization in the Critical Minerals Supply Chain? Conference Background In recent years, global nickel and cobalt raw material supply has frequently encountered various disruptions: Indonesia significantly lowered its nickel ore mining quota to 260–270 million mt, tightening nickel resource release at the source; the DRC continuously reduced cobalt ore export quotas, leading to a marked contraction in tradable cobalt raw materials worldwide. Multiple supply variables continued to roil nickel and cobalt commodity futures. Meanwhile, Indonesia is not only the core hub of the global nickel industry chain but also a key production area for global new cobalt supply at this stage. Its industrial control policies, commissioning pace of capacity, and industry chain layout changes directly shape the evolution of the global nickel-cobalt supply-demand pattern. Currently, the global nickel and cobalt industry is at a critical development stage featuring supply-demand restructuring, policy innovation, and value reassessment. To accurately forecast the nickel and cobalt market trends in 2026, deeply analyze the latest industrial control details in Indonesia, and help upstream and downstream players across the industry chain break down collaboration barriers, the Nickel and Cobalt Forum was launched. The forum brought together global mines, smelters, trading firms, downstream end-users, and investment and financing institutions to conduct in-depth discussions on key topics such as market supply and demand trends, policies and regulations, production technology iteration, and cross-border industrial cooperation, jointly exploring new growth drivers for high-quality industry development. Click to view the conference photo gallery June 4: Keynote Speeches Keynote Speech: Mining Regulatory Outlook: RKAB Quota Planning and Indonesia's Next-Phase Downstream Mineral Expansion Path Guest Speaker: Totoh Abdul Fatah, Secretary General of the Directorate General of Mineral and Coal, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Totoh Abdul Fatah noted that RKAB is the key policy instrument for Indonesia to regulate mineral output, coordinate the orderly rollout of industries, and align with the nation's downstream industrialization priorities. Indonesia is endowed with exceptional mineral and coal resources, with significant reserves and capacity in several key strategic commodities including nickel, cobalt, copper, tin, bauxite, gold and silver, and iron ore. Leveraging these unique resource advantages, Indonesia holds a critical strategic position in the global mineral supply chain, and its value is especially prominent in the energy transition wave, providing strong support for the development of power batteries, renewable energy equipment, and high-end manufacturing. The next phase of downstream mineral development is not about curbing growth, but about improving development quality, clarifying development direction, strengthening regulatory management, and reinforcing the sustainability of growth. Future smelter layout must match ore supply capability, be aligned with resource conservation, and coordinate multiple factors including energy infrastructure readiness, environmental protection access standards, and domestic industry value addition. In light of these considerations, the Indonesian government is promoting an industrial logic shift from pure capacity expansion to strategic optimization of resource allocation, ensuring that mineral resources are precisely directed to industry segments that can maximize national economic benefits. Indonesia's downstream mineral industrialization has made concrete progress. Currently, 14 smelters are in operation, primarily producing products such as nickel oxide, pig iron, and copper cathode. Covering both existing operating plants and new projects under construction, the entire industry chain has attracted a total realized investment of $7.849 billion. Breakdown: nickel sector investment of $2.535 billion, aluminum sector $2.181 billion, iron ore projects $47 million, and copper sector $3.084 billion. This is continuously improving the supporting system of the domestic mineral industry chain. This progress demonstrates that Indonesia's downstream mineral policy has achieved tangible results. However, challenges remain for the industry: not only must new smelting projects be completed and commissioned on schedule, but they also require stable supporting supply to achieve efficient operations, green and low-carbon production, and deep integration into the domestic industry chain value system. Indonesia's development direction is very clear: the downstream transformation of minerals will continue to advance, and during the implementation process, policy enforcement constraints and top-level strategic guidance will be further strengthened. The RKAB management system and ore source allocation control rules are key to building a robust and more resilient industrial ecosystem. Future smelting project planning needs to coordinate four key dimensions: sustainable resource development, supply-demand market equilibrium, ESG compliance implementation, and enhancement of national value added. Indonesia has always been open to quality investment, especially high-quality investment, relying on foreign capital to achieve technology transfer and localization, expand local employment, and support long-term economic growth. In other words, Indonesia's industrial development not only pursues growth, but is committed to achieving high-quality growth that is compliant, sustainable, and globally competitive. Keynote Speech: Nickel at a Crossroads：A Five-Year Outlook on Global Nickel — Navigating Policy, Supply, and Demand Shifts Speaker: Thomas Feng, Head of Industry Research, Shanghai Metals Market Feng projects that the global primary nickel market will show a supply deficit in 2026, continue the oversupply trend in 2027, and shift to a tight balance in 2029. Regarding refined nickel prices, on the cost side, global sulfur supply and demand will face a persistent deficit in the next 2–3 years. In the case of short-term strait blockades, sulfur prices remain high, strengthening the cost support for the sulfur-MHP-refined nickel chain. From a macro perspective, the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has triggered wild swings in energy prices, pushing up inflation expectations. In the short term, global commodity prices will face considerable fluctuations. In the long term, global geopolitical uncertainty may become the new normal in the future, increasing the volatility of refined nickel prices. Nickel Ore Upstream Repricing: Indonesia's Benchmark Price Raise, Quota Tightening, and Increased Dependence on the Philippines Indonesia Nickel Ore RKAB Quotas: Tight Balance Emerges as the 2026 Main Theme According to SMM analysis, following the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources' (ESDM) official denial of market rumors that RKAB production quotas would be raised across the board by 25%–30%, the government will handle supplementary quotas under strict case-by-case reviews starting from H2 2026, evaluating each miner's compliance, capacity, and resource reserves. At its core, this constitutes a routine and orderly optimisation of the existing 260–270 million wmt quota cap, paving the way for a more stable and sustainable market environment. Supply RKAB Approval Progress: As of April, Indonesia's cumulative approved RKAB quotas stand at 240 million wmt. SMM expects that, under expectations of continued nickel ore supply tightening, supplementary quotas around mid-year 2026 will be approximately 15%. Philippine Import Driver: SMM expects that this year, Indonesia's nickel ore imports from the Philippines will rise from approximately 15 million in 2025 to 22 million. Tightness in the domestic trade nickel ore supply will accelerate supplementation through imports from the Philippines. Demand Affected by the tight sulfur supply, MHP output has fallen short of earlier expectations. As a result, Indonesia's nickel ore demand for full-year 2026 is expected to be reduced to 303 million wmt. In 2026, actual nickel ore production will remain constrained by factors such as the rainy season and the pace of RKAB quota approvals, leaving overall output below theoretical supply levels. Panel Discussion: Upstream Opportunities & Challenges for Nickel Mine Owners Moderator: Enzo Brooklyn, Senior Nickel Analyst, SMM Panelists: Luca Maiotti, Policy Analyst, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Aldo Namora, President Director, PT Ceria Metalindo Prima Jerome Baudelet, CEO, Eramet Indonesia Patrick Lim, Country Head, HyperStrong Indonesia Keynote Speech: Achieving Energy Efficiency and Operational Success: The MMD Approach at Mah Moe Speaker: Fuad Budidarma Pratama, General Manager, MMD Mining Machinery Indonesia Keynote Speech: Global Nickel Market Outlook Speaker: Ricardo Ferreira, Director of Market Research and Statistics, International Nickel Study Group (INSG) Ricardo Ferreira noted that global primary nickel production is estimated to have declined by approximately 4% YoY, measured across the full chain from raw ore mining to finished primary nickel products. Most of this decrease originated from Indonesia, while expectations also pointed to a pullback in Chinese nickel output. According to the monthly bulletin released earlier, global primary nickel already edged down by about 1% in Q1, with Indonesia down roughly 3% and China down about 1%. Keynote Speech: New Refining Technologies for Laterite Nickel and Spent Batteries Speaker: Dr. Chunwei Liu, Managing Director of Resource Extraction, Botree Recycling Technologies Distribution of Laterite Nickel Ore Resources Laterite nickel ore accounts for 55% of global nickel resources and is the main source of nickel for industrial production worldwide. With the continuous development and promotion of high-nickel batteries, market demand for nickel—and consequently for laterite nickel ore processing—has grown significantly. Geographic concentration: Mainly distributed in tropical countries within 30° north and south of the equator. Three core regions: Southeast Asia: Indonesia, the Philippines (major laterite nickel ore producing areas). Americas: Cuba, Brazil. Oceania: Australia, New Caledonia. Panel Discussion: Nickel Price Volatility, Product Spreads, and Policy Shifts: What Will Define the Market in the next 5 years? Moderator: Slupek Kamila, Secretary-General, INSG Panelists: Jim Lennon, Analyst, Macquarie Septian Hario Seto, Member, National Economic Council Republic of Indonesia Denis Sharypin, Strategic Marketing Director, Norilsk Nickel Edric Koh, Head of Corporate Sales, Asia, London Metal Exchange Mark Selby, CEO & Director, Canada Nickel Company Keynote Speech: Korean Battery Supply Chain Strategy and Indonesia's Role Speaker: James (IKHWAN) Choi, Country Manager, Korea Office, SMM Korea Office Keynote Speech: Retreat or Evolve? The Counter-Attack of High-Nickel Batteries under the LFP Siege: Solid State, 4680, and the "Range Anxiety" Premium Speaker: Jared Zhu, Head of Consulting, Renewable Energy & Non-ferrous Metals, Shanghai Metals Market Jared noted that LFP batteries have steadily increased their market share in power battery and energy storage markets in recent years. With the rapid development of emerging sectors such as humanoid robots, industrial robots, and electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles (eVTOL), ternary batteries, leveraging their performance advantages, are more competitive than LFP batteries. Solid-state batteries are regarded by the industry as a must-win field for future competition, but it is worth noting that this new technology, capable of rewriting industry rules, still has a long development cycle before full commercialization. Positioning in the LFP Era LFP Accelerates Replacement of Ni-Co-Mn in Energy Storage and EVs, Leading in Scale and Growth SMM forecasts the global share of EV power battery types from 2026 to 2027, expecting LFP batteries to account for around 68% in 2026, with that ratio rising to about 70% in 2027. For ESS battery types, from 2022 to 2025, the share of LFP batteries in global ESS batteries continued to rise, and in 2026, it is expected to increase to around 99%. Keynote Speech: QMAG - Market Leader of Calcined Magnesia for Nickel/Cobalt MHP Production Speaker: Christoph Beyer, Managing Director of Queensland Magnesia (QMAG) Dr. Keynote Speech: Cobalt in Focus: Powering the Next Chapter of Critical Minerals Speaker: Dinah McLeod, Director General, Cobalt Institute June 5: Nickel and Cobalt Forum Keynote Speeches Keynote Speech: Balancing Risk and Reward: Investing in Indonesia's Nickel and Cobalt Value Chain Speaker: Izzie Huo, Senior Research Fellow, Shanghai Metals Market Panel Discussion: Too Much Nickel? Balancing Oversupply Risks with Long-Term Investment in Indonesia Moderator: Jean Tang, Commercial Director, Shanghai Metals Market Panelists: Ali Safdar, Managing Director & Partner, BCG (Boston Consulting Group) Arif Perdana Kusumah, Chairman, Forum Industri Nikel Indonesia (FINI) Ditya Maharhani Harninda, Senior Vice President Corporate Banking 2, PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (Persero) Keynote Speech: Valve Solutions for Severe Service in HPAL Speaker: Changsong Deng, President of International Business Division, ANTIWEAR Keynote Speech: Breaking the Import Dependency: Economics and Feasibility of Pyrite-based Acid Production for Indonesia's HPAL Supply Chain Speaker: Bede Beresford Evans, President Director, PT Sumbawa Timur Mining Keynote Speech: Key Technology and Economic Analysis of AI Power Microgrid Solutions in Mining Speaker: Frank Qi, CEO, Ai Power (Suzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. Keynote Speech: Value of Analytical Solutions in Mining Processes Speaker: Toh Tiong Yen, Sales Manager, Malvern Panalytical Keynote Speech: New Caledonia's Nickel Landscape Speaker: Gabriel Bensimon, Special Advisor to the President of the Government on Nickel and Mining-Related Matters, The Government of New Caledonia Keynote Speech: Global Flow of Nickel from Mining to End-Use Speaker: Dr. Steukers Veronique, President, Nickel Institute Primary nickel production is now dominated by Indonesia. In 2025, Indonesia produced around 50% of the world's primary nickel, compared to just 6% a decade earlier. Primary nickel production in the rest of the world declined. In 2025, primary nickel production in the rest of the world, excluding Indonesia and China, accounted for just over 20% of the global total, down from 65% a decade earlier. Indonesia and China are the core driving forces shaping the global nickel supply chain landscape. From the perspective of nickel product circulation structure, NPI, backed by Indonesia's capacity advantage, firmly dominates the circulation mainstream; in terms of global nickel raw material supply by grade, Class 2 nickel accounts for approximately 58%, Class 1 nickel for just under 30%, and nickel chemical products for the remaining around 13%. Panel Discussion: Meet the Future of ESG: Standard, Challenges and Opportunities in Mining and Processing Moderator: Katz Benjamin, Policy Analyst, OECD Panelists: Dr. Chris Schlekat, Executive Director of NIPERA, Nickel Institute Ning Wang, Manager, Sustainable Development Department, China Chamber of Commerce of Metals, Minerals & Chemicals Importers & Exporters Yumo Li, Head of ESG Office in Tsingshan Board, Tsingshan Holding Group Vinícius Mendes Ferreira, Executive Advisor for Nickel Downstreaming, PT Vale Indonesia Fan Li, Sustainability and ESG Services Manager, dss+ Tom Fairlie, Senior Sustainability Manager, Cobalt Institute

2026-06-10 15:25PM UTC While markets have been focused on the recent sharp decline in gold prices, the broader precious metals sector has also experienced significant selling pressure, with platinum-group metals suffering some of the steepest losses, according to a report from Bank of America. Both platinum and palladium recently fell to their lowest levels of the year amid continued pressure from the global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions. Global economic weakness and Middle East tensions weigh on platinum-group metals Commodity analysts at the bank said the rally in platinum-group metals lost momentum since late January, largely due to gold’s price action and persistent economic headwinds linked to the conflict in the Middle East, which continue to weigh on industrial metals demand. Despite the recent weakness, the bank maintained its positive long-term outlook for the sector, noting that it remains constructive on gold heading into the fourth quarter. A renewed gold rally could attract investors back into platinum-group metals and help support prices. Spot platinum fell to around $1,711 per ounce, down more than 2% during the session, while palladium traded near $1,203 per ounce, up roughly 0.5%. Since the sharp selloff on Friday, platinum has lost more than 9% of its value, while palladium has fallen over 6%. Higher price targets despite weak industrial and jewelry demand Despite current pressures, Bank of America still expects platinum to average around $3,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026 through the first half of 2027. Palladium is expected to average around $2,200 per ounce during the final three months of the year. Platinum-group metals delivered strong gains during 2025 as global trade tensions and threats of tariffs on precious metals created significant disruptions in physical market liquidity. However, analysts noted that most of those concerns eased after tariff threats failed to translate into broad implementation. According to the report, the absence of tariffs resulted in more than 200,000 ounces of platinum leaving NYMEX warehouses, roughly half of the inflows recorded during the second half of 2025. Palladium, meanwhile, saw outflows in late January before flows reversed after the US Department of Commerce imposed final anti-dumping duties of 133% and countervailing duties of 109% on Russian palladium. Structural shifts in demand The bank also highlighted structural changes in demand for platinum-group metals. Platinum is expected to record a modest supply deficit this year, while palladium is forecast to remain in a slight surplus. Analysts pointed to China’s accelerating transition toward electric vehicles as a major source of market volatility, given the reduced demand for internal combustion engine vehicles that rely heavily on platinum-group metals in catalytic converters. Electric vehicles are expected to account for roughly 40% of China’s light-vehicle production this year, surpassing conventional combustion-engine vehicles for the first time. Traditional vehicles are projected to represent 36% of production, while hybrids account for 24%. Production of internal combustion vehicles in China has already fallen to approximately 14 million units in 2025, down from 21 million in 2020. By contrast, the transition to electric vehicles remains slower in Europe and the United States, particularly after Washington scaled back some of its earlier electrification initiatives. Weak jewelry demand in China Demand for platinum jewelry has also slowed, especially in China, where elevated inventories accumulated during the manufacturing boom of mid-2025 continue to pressure the market. Although some of those inventories have already been recycled, retailers still hold large stockpiles while consumer demand remains weak, raising the risk of a significant contraction in Chinese jewelry manufacturing volumes this year. Energy costs threaten South African production Despite uncertainty surrounding global demand, Bank of America believes supply-side risks could become increasingly important. The bank noted that ongoing Middle East tensions, higher energy prices, and inflationary pressures could negatively affect production, particularly in South Africa, one of the world's largest producers of platinum-group metals. South Africa relies heavily on imported oil, has limited domestic production capacity, and faces ongoing refining constraints, leaving its mining sector highly exposed to rising fuel costs. Diesel remains widely used across mining operations, transportation networks, and backup power generation, especially given the country's persistent electricity shortages. Diesel prices have surged since the conflict began, while state utility Eskom raised electricity tariffs by 8.76% beginning in April 2026, significantly increasing mining costs. In this context, Sibanye-Stillwater reported a 13% year-over-year increase in unit operating costs during the first quarter, citing persistent inflationary pressures, including higher labor and energy expenses. In trading on Wednesday, spot palladium rose 1.5% to $1,249 per ounce as of 16:14 GMT. Source： https://www.economies.com/commodities/palladium-news/palladium-attempts-to-recover-losses-as-bank-of-america-maintains-a-bullish-outlook-49044

Indonesia has officially activated one of the most structurally significant commodity trade reforms in its recent history. On May 20, 2026, President Prabowo Subianto signed Government Regulation (PP) No.24/2026 on the Governance of Strategic Natural Resource Commodity Exports (State Gazette No.58, Supplementary State Gazette No.7178), which took effect on June 1, 2026 per Article 10. The regulation designates Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI) as the mandatory sole export intermediary for all shipments of coal, palm oil, and ferro alloys. No Indonesian producer in these categories can sell directly to a foreign buyer anymore. Every transaction must legally pass through DSI first. The constitutional grounding is explicit. The preamble invokes Article 33 of the 1945 Constitution, which establishes that natural resources are controlled by the state and must be used for the greatest possible benefit of the Indonesian people ( sebesar-besar kemakmuran rakyat ). The regulation's explanatory notes go further, stating that "so long as the state possesses the capital, technology, and management capability to manage Strategic SDA Commodities, the state should undertake direct management," and that doing so ensures "all results and profits will become state revenue bringing more optimal benefits for the welfare and prosperity of the people." This is framed not as a technical trade regulation but as a matter of constitutional duty. The explanatory notes to Article 7 explicitly name the five digital systems through which DSI will exercise oversight: CEISA (Customs Excise Information System and Automation), SINSW (Indonesia National Single Window), INATRADE (Trade Information System), SiMoDIS (Integrated Foreign Exchange Monitoring System), and MOMS (Minerba Online Monitoring System). Real-time visibility across all five platforms forms the enforcement backbone of the entire reform. On June 9, Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Bahlil Lahadalia and DSI COO Dony Oskaria offered three key reassurances at a press conference to calm investor sentiment. Oskaria confirmed that existing B2B contracts and Letters of Credit will continue to be honored during the transition period, provided DSI's monitoring system confirms that pricing is fair and transparent. Bahlil categorically denied market rumors of a "profit-sharing" mechanism in the minerals sector, stating that this concept applies only to oil and gas and that Minerba rules remain unchanged. He also committed to aligning RKAB mining quotas with smelting capacity and promised quota relaxations during periods of highly favorable global prices. June 8th DPR RI Coordination Hearing: What Bahlil and Dony Oskaria Actually Said The Indonesian House of Representatives (Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat Republik Indonesia / DPR RI) convened a coordination hearing to align the new natural resource export governance policy between Danantara's Investment Management Agency (BPI Danantara) and the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (Kementerian ESDM). The session featured Minister Bahlil Lahadalia representing ESDM and DSI COO Dony Oskaria representing BPI Danantara. Oskaria opened by clarifying the precise scope of DSI's mandate in its initial phase. He confirmed that DSI's primary and immediate purpose is to halt under-invoicing and transfer pricing — not to disrupt physical commodity flows. He gave explicit assurance that existing B2B sales contracts and Letters of Credit will continue to be honored and executed normally during the transition period, with one condition: DSI's digital monitoring system must determine that the declared pricing is fair and reflects genuine market values. Any contract where declared prices are flagged as suspiciously below market will be subject to DSI scrutiny, but standard commercially negotiated contracts should proceed without interruption. Bahlil addressed three distinct concerns that had been circulating in the market. First and most urgently, he categorically denied rumors of a "gross split" profit-sharing mechanism being introduced into the minerals sector. He stated directly that gross split calculations exist only in the oil and gas sector and that there are "absolutely no changes" to the existing rules governing the minerals and coal (Minerba) space. This denial was significant because the rumor alone had been enough to cause investors to reconsider capital commitments to Indonesian smelting projects. Second, Bahlil acknowledged the domestic ore supply squeeze that has been tightening around Indonesian smelters, and committed to aligning RKAB mining quotas with downstream smelter capacity. He promised "measured relaxations" of production limits during periods when global commodity prices are highly favorable, signaling that the government has no interest in strangling the smelting industry it has spent years building. Third, on the broader question of investment security, Bahlil framed DSI as a value-capture mechanism rather than a market interference tool — the government wants more of the revenue that Indonesian commodities generate to stay in Indonesia, not to reduce the volume of those commodities being exported. What the Regulation Actually Says: Key Articles Reading PP No.24/2026 directly, several provisions carry commercial implications beyond what the market has fully absorbed. Article 3(1) establishes the core mandate: strategic commodities may only be exported by the BUMN Ekspor, acting either as owner or as sole intermediary. The word hanya ("only") in the Indonesian text is unconditional. Article 3(2) goes further: the selling price of Strategic SDA Commodities is determined by the BUMN Ekspor. This is not a transparency or monitoring function — DSI holds formal pricing authority over every export transaction. Article 3(4) confirms that DSI may charge a margin at a reasonable level in accordance with prevailing regulations, meaning DSI is legally entitled to a fee for its intermediary role. The combination of state-determined selling price and a state-imposed margin on every nickel and ferro alloy export has not yet been fully digested by the market. Article 4(2) contains the most important exemption in the regulation. DSI's mandatory intermediary role can be waived for business operators who hold contracts or agreements with the government that include provisions on at minimum: investment, divestment, and domestic processing and/or refining. Exemptions are decided in a coordination meeting chaired by the Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs. For the nickel sector, this is a critical provision, any smelter with an existing government contract containing these three elements has a legal pathway to apply for exemption from DSI routing entirely. Article 7 governs the full transition timeline. It states that from June 1 through no later than December 31, 2026, exports must go through BUMN Ekspor. Within three months of the effective date — meaning by approximately September 1, 2026 — a formal inter-ministerial evaluation must take place. Based on that evaluation, the Coordinating Minister has the authority to set a new deadline that is either earlier or later than originally planned, provided it remains before December 31. This is a genuine two-way valve: if the transition is going well, implementation can be accelerated; if problems emerge, the government can extend the timeline. Article 7(e) further provides that if the transition completes ahead of any applicable deadline, the full DSI-only rules apply from that earlier date immediately. Article 8 addresses existing contracts: all sales contracts signed before June 1, 2026 that remain valid are subject to evaluation by the BUMN Ekspor. DSI holds formal authority to assess every pre-existing long-term purchase agreement, including those between Indonesian smelters and their Chinese offtake partners. Critical Dates and Deadlines: The Full Regulatory Calendar May 20, 2026 — PP No.24/2026 signed by President Prabowo Subianto. June 1, 2026 — Regulation takes effect. Phase 1 begins. CEISA 4.0 mandatory DSI reporting pop-up activated. Pre-June 1 sales contracts enter DSI evaluation period under Article 8. By ~September 1, 2026 — Mandatory inter-ministerial evaluation of the transition (Article 7b). This review is a legal obligation, not optional. Its outcome determines the pace of everything that follows: the Coordinating Minister may accelerate, maintain, or extend the timeline to any date before December 31. September 1, 2026 — Phase 1.5 begins (unless the evaluation resets the timeline). PEB Box 6 changes to BUMN Ekspor (DSI). QQ document format begins. Companies act as DSI's legal agents. December 31, 2026 — The hard outer ceiling (Article 7a). After this date, no transitional exceptions remain. Only DSI may export, unconditionally. The Coordinating Minister cannot extend beyond this date. January 1, 2027 (or earlier if accelerated) — Phase 2 full implementation. DSI is the sole legal exporter. DSI drafts all contracts and L/Cs, handles all customs clearance, and reports DHE directly to Bank Indonesia via SiMoDIS. The NPI Classification Crisis The inclusion of ferro alloys has created the most significant market confusion, centered on a single unresolved technical problem: where Nickel Pig Iron sits relative to the regulated ferro-nickel HS code. Ferronickel (FeNi) is a mature, refined iron-nickel alloy produced through capital-intensive smelting, typically containing 20–40% nickel . It is a direct feedstock for stainless steel production and commands a meaningful price premium. Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) was developed in China in the mid-2000s as a low-cost alternative, produced via the simpler Rotary Kiln-Electric Furnace (RKEF) process using laterite ore. Indonesian RKEF-line NPI consistently produces at 10–14% Ni — a structural result of the process and the ore body, not a product specification smelters can adjust. NPI trades at a significant discount to FeNi, and any trader or stainless steel mill can distinguish the two products immediately. The problem is that Indonesia's customs classification framework cannot reliably tell them apart. Both products can fall under HS 7202.60 (ferro-nickel), and Indonesian NPI smelters have historically declared under that code without issue. Under Permendag No.12/2026, HS 7202.60.00 is now DIATUR (Regulated) — triggered when Ni content reaches ≥ 8% . The Ministry of Trade chose this as the demarcation: refined FeNi at 20–40% Ni would clearly exceed it, while NPI was assumed to fall below it and escape the regulation. That assumption fails entirely. Standard Indonesian RKEF output runs 10–12% Ni; higher-grade lines reach 12–14% Ni. There is no commercially significant NPI stream below 8% Ni under normal operating conditions. The threshold sits below average grade Indonesia actually produces, meaning every Indonesian NPI shipment technically triggers under the regulated classification, capturing precisely the product the government intended to exempt. Internal Rakortek documents confirm the Coordinating Minister directed that NPI should not be captured. The discussion slides acknowledge the collision and propose corrective steps: set a threshold above actual RKEF NPI norms, issue binding technical definitions for NPI, and align classification consistently across HS 7201 (pig iron), 7202.60 (ferro-nickel), and 7502.20 (nickel alloys). None of that supplemental guidance has been published yet. Strategic Outlook: The September Evaluation Is the Pivot Point The most important thing to understand about PP No.24/2026's near-term trajectory is that the regulation has deliberately built in a recalibration mechanism — and that mechanism has not been priced into most market participants' planning. Article 7(b) and 7(c) together create a genuine two-way valve. The September evaluation is a legally mandated inter-ministerial review that gives the Coordinating Minister real authority to reset the timeline in either direction. If the first three months reveal that DSI is not operationally ready, and the Rakortek checklists, which showed nearly every DSI readiness item as incomplete as of May 25, suggest that risk is real — the Coordinating Minister can formally extend the transition and push the QQ phase and beyond to a later date before December 31. Equally, if the reporting data flowing through CEISA, SiMoDIS, and MOMS shows that compliance is working smoothly and DSI is ready, the same evaluation could authorize an accelerated Phase 2 arrival, potentially as early as October or November 2026. What is not negotiable is the December 31, 2026 ceiling. Articles 7(a) and 7(d) together make clear that this is the absolute outer boundary of the Coordinating Minister's authority. Regardless of what the evaluation finds, the transition cannot be extended beyond December 31. After that date, except for legally approved exemptions, DSI is the sole legal exporter and no amount of industry pressure or operational unreadiness changes that. The Article 4(2) exemption pathway remains the most immediately actionable provision for smelters with qualifying government contracts. Any agreement containing investment, divestment, and domestic processing provisions should be reviewed against that exemption criteria now. Engaging the Coordinating Minister's coordination meeting process before the September evaluation is concluded is far preferable to doing so afterward. On NPI, the plain text of Permendag No.12/2026 as it stands today classifies Indonesian NPI as regulated. Smelters should not wait for the Ministry of Trade's supplemental guidance before beginning compliance preparation. Seeking an advance product classification ruling, exploring the Article 4(2) exemption if applicable, and building DSI integration workflows in parallel remains the most prudent path. The December 31 deadline, or whatever earlier date the post-evaluation acceleration may set, is not the end of the story. It is the point at which the entire B2B architecture of Indonesian strategic commodity exports permanently and irreversibly changes. SMM Analysis makes no representations as to the official legal interpretation of any regulation cited. Stakeholders should seek formal legal counsel for all compliance decisions.