Gold prices fall due to interest rate gloom and Middle East tensions. US Fed and major central banks likely to maintain current interest rates. Long-term gold outlook positive, seen as a hedge against risks.

Trafigura today signed a $2.1 billion five-year loan agreement with the German government to supply critical minerals for Germany's industrial, energy, and technology sectors. The German government guaranteed the loan through its export credit agency Euler Hermes, while Commerzbank helped arrange the financing, which was provided by a consortium of eight banks.

Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch highlights extreme volatility in Gold and Silver, with sharp swings over consecutive days and record-high nominal prices.

The escalation of conflicts between Israel and Iran has strengthened the market's demand for safe-haven assets. Silver, as a precious metal with both safe-haven and industrial attributes, has become an alternative choice for capital to seek refuge amid the backdrop of gold's trend being suppressed by the rebound of the US dollar index on June 17. At the end of May, the gold-silver ratio once broke through the historical extreme of 1:100, far exceeding the previous long-term average of 60-80, indicating that silver was severely undervalued. The demand for silver's valuation repair has supported its price. The long-term trend of the global silver supply-demand gap provides underlying support for silver prices. As the most-traded SHFE silver contract technically broke through the round-number threshold of 9,000 yuan/kg, it attracted more market capital inflows, pushing silver prices to repeatedly hit new highs. As of around 15:19 on June 18, the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose by 2.35%, closing at 9,045 yuan/kg, and refreshing its historical high since listing to 9,075 yuan/kg...

On Friday, April 11, Commerzbank expects copper prices to reach $9,400 per mt by the end of this year. Commerzbank stated that aluminum prices may rise to $2,600 per mt by the end of this year, and only to $2,800 per mt next year. The bank expects nickel prices to rise to $18,000 per mt by the end of this year and has revised its zinc price forecast down to $2,600 per mt. To learn more about the dynamics of the copper industry chain, you are welcome to attend the CCIE 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Conference and Copper Industry Expo, hosted by SMM, which will be grandly held in Nanchang, Jiangxi from April 22-25, 2025. ~ Over 3,000 industry elites, representatives from upstream and downstream enterprises of the copper industry chain, government officials, industry associations, third-party equipment, logistics and warehousing, as well as experts from universities and research institutions will gather together. The conference covers mines, smelting, copper processing, trade, recycling, end-use applications, encompassing the entire copper industry chain. At the conference, more than 100 exhibitors will showcase the latest copper processing and smelting equipment, high-quality raw material suppliers, and new-type copper-based materials, highlighting the innovation and vitality of the copper industry. The conference features a variety of exciting activities: the main forum focuses on global copper market trends, raw material supply, policy impact analysis, and market direction interpretation. Sub-forums delve into industry hot topics such as electrical power transmission and distribution, secondary copper, copper-based new materials, hardware and plumbing, and ESS. During the conference, a 2-day field trip to 12 representative enterprises with a cumulative capacity of 1 million mt in the copper industry will be conducted. Sharing cutting-edge technologies and valuable experiences will help upgrade the copper industry chain and promote high-quality industry development. CCIE 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Conference and Copper Industry Expo will help you grasp the industry pulse, expand your network, and seek business opportunities! SMM cordially invites you to gather in Nanchang, Jiangxi from April 22-25, to unite in the new era and jointly plan for new development!

On Wednesday, Germany's conservative party and the center-left Social Democratic Party reached a coalition agreement, marking the finalization of the formation of Germany's new government, which is expected to officially take office in May. This comes at a time when the US has sparked a global tariff war, but US President Trump recently announced a 90-day tariff suspension for certain countries, which was seen as a significant positive signal by the market. On Wednesday, US stocks surged across the board, with the Nasdaq rising by 12% in a single day, and this sentiment also drove a widespread sharp increase in the Asia-Pacific market during Thursday's early trading. On April 9, the US imposed a 10% baseline tariff on major trading partners and varying degrees of reciprocal tariffs, and around this time, economies such as China and the EU took countermeasures against US trade bullying. Following Trump's "backdown" statement, Friedrich Merz, the conservative leader and Germany's incoming chancellor, addressed the White House in English, stating that a key message to Trump is that Germany is getting back on track. He emphasized that the EU needs to unite in response to the escalating global tariff war, and Trump's announcement of a tariff suspension proves that unity is effective, serving as a successful example of Europe's unified trade policy approach. New Atmosphere Germany's new government faces significant trade challenges upon taking office, and Merz needs to lead the government in cooperating with the EU to jointly address US tariff threats. Merz stated on Wednesday that the German coalition government will be a strong government capable of taking action, increasing defense spending, and enhancing Germany's economic competitiveness. Merz is clearly signaling the determination of the new German government to reassert EU leadership and strengthen international influence. He also emphasized that the EU hopes to reach a zero-tariff agreement with the US, which would resolve trade disputes. Merz also mentioned that he will meet with Trump soon. Germany's new ruling coalition also outlined its governance plan: agreeing to reduce taxes for low- and middle-income groups, lower corporate taxes, reduce energy prices, support the EV industry, and repeal a controversial supply chain law. The coalition will also establish a committee to further reform the "debt brake" stipulated by the German constitution, a rule that critics have long argued limits Germany's fiscal freedom and hinders market vitality. Joerg Kraemer, chief economist at Commerzbank, stated that the new coalition's policies are moving in the right direction, but given years of declining competitiveness, Germany's economic policy has not truly been reset.

In 2024, copper prices concluded their journey with an overall increase. Among them, the annual gain for LME copper was 2.6%, SHFE copper rose by 6.96%, and SMM #1 copper cathode increased by 6.59%. Although the final growth in copper prices was not as dazzling as that of precious metals, the volatility of copper prices in 2024 was truly dramatic! Driven by factors such as macro tailwinds, increasingly tight expectations for copper ore supply, rising expectations for production cuts in copper cathode, anticipated growth in copper consumption for AI, and a short squeeze in COMEX copper, the prices of futures copper on the three major exchanges all hit record highs in May 2024! Taking the volatility of SHFE copper in 2024 as an example, its highest price reached 88,940 yuan/mt, while the lowest dropped to 67,380 yuan/mt, with a difference of 21,560 yuan/mt between the two. Such intense volatility is far from favorable for downstream copper consumption. Entering 2025, copper prices are currently showing an overall upward trend on the annual chart for 2025. How will the macro front and fundamentals, which played leading roles in the copper market drama of 2024, perform this year?

Volvo Cars' subsidiary, Sixiangjia Financial Leasing (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. (Sixiangjia), has successfully signed its first domestic RMB sustainability-linked syndicated loan at Volvo Cars' Asia Pacif...

The US Fed's policy meeting minutes from April 30 to May 1 indicated that Fed officials emphasized that due to disappointing inflation data, the policy rate needs to remain at its current level for longer than previously anticipated. This news put pressure on precious metal futures.

According to foreign news on September 26, Commerzbank said on Tuesday that the supply outlook in the copper market has improved significantly, and the downside risks to the estimated copper price of US$8,800 per ton at the end of the year have increased.