This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. The main logic during the week remained weakening cost support. On Tuesday, Iran proposed charging transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump made conciliatory remarks, saying that “even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, he would still be willing to end military action against Iran.” Market expectations for tighter crude oil supply weakened, and declines in the energy sector dragged down the coal sector, weakening the cost-side logic. During the week, inventories of the five major steel products continued to decline, but apparent demand remained at a low level for the same period in previous years, providing limited fundamental-driven momentum to futures. In the spot market, purchasing interest was average, mainly focused on restocking at low prices. Spot prices were relatively firm, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, coking coal costs for coke producers declined somewhat, and with the first round of coke price increases now fully implemented, losses at coke producers narrowed significantly, boosting production enthusiasm. Coke supply increased steadily, while downstream demand remained moderate, shipments were smooth, and producers' own inventory continued to decline. Demand side, steel mill blast furnaces gradually resumed production, and daily average hot metal production continued to increase, driving up rigid demand for coke. However, steel mills have recently seen good coke arrivals, with most mills' coke inventory at mid-range levels and overall procurement sentiment remaining average. In summary, coke market fundamentals have shifted toward looser supply and demand, and coupled with weaker recent cost support for coke, the coke market may remain temporarily stable in the short term, with further price increases facing greater difficulty.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, coke producers maintained relatively good operating rates, and coke supply increased steadily. Downstream rigid demand for coke still existed, coke producers' shipments were relatively smooth, and there was no obvious inventory pressure for the time being. Demand side, steel mills' daily average hot metal output increased, driving up rigid demand for coke. However, futures declined recently, and end-use demand remained weak, weakening market sentiment and reducing steel mills' purchase willingness. In summary, after the coke price hike, market sentiment weakened, and the coke market may remain temporarily stable in the short term.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, most coke producers maintained relatively stable operating rates, and downstream buyers showed moderate enthusiasm for coke procurement, with smooth shipments from coke producers and no obvious inventory pressure for the time being. On the demand side, steel mills were currently in the stage of blast furnace production resumptions, increasing rigid demand for coke, but no significant improvement was seen in end-use demand for finished steel products, market sentiment weakened, and steel mills' purchase willingness declined somewhat. In summary, the first round of coke price increases was officially implemented, but market sentiment pulled back recently, most steel mills had moderate coke inventories, the coke supply-demand structure gradually shifted toward balance, and the coke market may remain generally stable with slight rise in the short term.

India will engage with Argentina, Indonesia, and Oman next month to secure supplies of critical steelmaking raw materials. Discussions will occur during a major international steel summit in India. The focus includes coking coal, iron ore, lithium, and ferronickel. Indonesia, possessing the world's largest nickel reserves, is targeted as a key supplier of ferronickel for stainless steel. Meanwhile, Oman provides iron ore, and Argentina is a target for lithium and other critical minerals to support state-run NMDC Limited. This initiative aligns with India's strategy to ensure steady raw material supplies to scale up domestic steel production and advance its clean energy transition.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, coking coal costs charged into coke ovens at coking enterprises remained high. Coupled with solid demand for coke from steel mills and increased procurement volumes, coke inventory at coking enterprises continued to decline. On the demand side, blast furnace production resumptions at steel mills continued to advance, and hot metal production kept rebounding, strengthening rigid demand for coke. In summary, the supply-demand structure of coke remained tight. In the short term, the coke market may continue to hold up well, and the first round of coke price increases is expected to be implemented soon.

As of March 30, the closing price of the most-traded HRC futures contract was 3,307. In March, the SMM national average spot price for HRC was 3,265.93 yuan/mt, with the monthly average price up 0.72% MoM.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] Supply side, coke producers' shipments were smooth, and coke inventory continued to decline, but recently the cost of coal charged into furnaces at coke producers continued to rise, dampening the production enthusiasm of some coke producers. Demand side, current hot metal production at steel mills continued to increase, boosting rigid demand for coke. In summary, coke fundamentals showed a tight trend, and coupled with strengthening cost support for coke, the coke market may hold up well in the short term, with the first round of coke price increases this week likely to be implemented.

On 30 March, India is scheduled to participate in consultations with Argentina, Indonesia, and Oman at an upcoming steel industry conference to discuss raw materials including iron ore and coking coal, with a focus on fostering technical cooperation. Oman and Brazil remain India's primary sources of iron ore imports. For the fiscal year 2025/26, India’s iron ore imports are projected to reach between 12 and 14 million tones—its highest level in seven years—with approximately 70% sourced from Brazil and Oman.

This week, ferrous metals retreated after a rapid rise. At the beginning of the week, the market said that Asia had shifted to coal-fired power generation due to a natural gas supply deficit, while Indonesia would increase coal production and impose export taxes. The rise in international coal prices was transmitted to China, and coking coal and coke led the gains in ferrous metals; mid-week, the Middle East situation remained volatile, and the U.S. and Iran held differing attitudes toward war, with ferrous metals consolidating at high levels; the pullback in the second half of the week was also mainly due to the weakening of the cost-side logic, as market rumors said long-term iron ore contract negotiations had been completed, expectations for tightening iron ore supply declined, and raw materials turned into the main driver of the pullback. In the spot market, speculative trading and end-user purchase sentiment improved in the first half of the week, while rigid demand remained dominant in the second half, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......