This week, ferrous metals experienced divergent and volatile movements. At the start of the week, the four major stock indices all closed lower. Coking coal futures showed strong performance, with the most-traded contract 2609 hitting a high of 1,486.5 yuan/mt, while ore and steel futures trended weaker. Subsequently, hit by news about Shaanxi authorities ensuring coal supply for enterprises, coupled with persistently weak steel consumption, supply-demand imbalances gradually built up, leading to a sharp decline in coking coal and coke futures. In the latter half of the week, on the one hand, news of iron ore shipments and tightening market liquidity drove a stronger performance in its futures; on the other hand, the escalation of coking coal supply tightness once again pushed up coking coal, coke, and hot-rolled coil and rebar futures prices. In the spot market, the sixth round of coke price increases was implemented mid-week......

This week, HRC prices fluctuated downward. The weekly average price edged lower, and overall trading volume declined. Supply side, rolling line maintenance decreased this week, and overall HRC production edged up. Demand side, apparent demand for HRC weakened again this week, as the downstream sector entered the off-season, with high temperatures and rainfall constraining project starts. Speculative demand retreated, end-user wait-and-see sentiment intensified, and actual procurement volumes gradually declined. Inventory side, this week SMM’s nationwide 86-warehouse (large sample) HRC social inventory stood at 4.279 million mt, down 72,900 mt or 1.68% WoW. By region, inventory in the Northeast and South China markets built up WoW, while East China, North China, and Central China markets saw destocking WoW. Inventory destocking provided support to HRC prices. Cost side, the average iron ore price edged lower, and the sixth round of coke price increases was implemented, slightly strengthening cost support for HRC. Looking ahead, costs may continue to increase, but as the off-season effect deepens, the pace of HRC destocking may narrow. In the short term, HRC prices are expected to move sideways. Overall, the most-traded HRC contract is expected to trade in the 3,340-3,410 range next week.

Today, the DCE iron ore futures trended in the doldrums. The most-traded I2609 contract closed at 764 yuan/mt, down 0.33% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices were unchanged from the previous day. Traders showed moderate quoting activity; steel mills purchased as needed with few inquiries, and spot trading volume was low so far. According to SMM survey data, as of today, total iron ore inventory at major Chinese ports reached 149.35 million mt, up 960,000 mt WoW. Inventory edged up slightly, while average daily port pick-up volume edged up by 68,000 mt to 3.268 million mt. Overall, iron ore supply was on the loose side, placing strong downward pressure on ore prices. Additionally, the seventh round of coke price increases was formally announced today, and steel mill profits are expected to contract, intensifying market bearish sentiment on iron ore prices. Overall, ore prices currently face significant resistance to gains and are expected to continue hovering at lows in the near term.

[SMM Daily Brief on Coking Coal and Coke] News-wise, some regional steel mills have accepted an increase of 50 yuan/mt for wet-quenched coke and 55 yuan/mt for dry-quenched coke, effective from 0:00 on June 15, 2026 (the seventh round). Supply side, affected by the slowing rise in coking coal prices, the sixth round of coke price increases has been implemented, yet cost pressure on coking plants remains, and their losses have not materially improved. Coupled with stricter safety inspections, the release of coking capacity is restricted, while procurement by downstream steel mills remains active and coking plant inventories stay low, keeping coke supply persistently tight. Demand side, current steel mill operations are stable, and hot metal output stays high, ensuring steady coke demand, with low-inventory steel mills showing strong willingness to restock.

The most-traded HRC contract fluctuated downward today, closing at 3,358, down 0.33% MoM. Spot sheets & plates fell 10-20 yuan/mt MoM, while some markets held steady. Supply side, hot rolling maintenance impact eased this week, weekly production rose 10,500 mt MoM, and supply pressure remains on a short-term uptrend. Demand side, the late-session decline weighed on market sentiment, with end-users buying at low prices and speculative demand weakening. Cost side, the spot market for coking coal and coke remained in a tight supply-demand balance. The sixth round of coke price increases was implemented, and futures prices are currently in the process of repairing losses. There are market talks of a seventh round of increases on the 12th, and cost support remains in place. In summary, based on HRC social inventory data, east China and south China markets saw MoM inventory buildup, while northeast, north China, and central China markets saw MoM destocking. No obvious supply-demand imbalance has emerged yet. However, as the off-season deepens, imbalances will continue to build. The market is expected to remain rangebound in the short term. Keep monitoring disturbances from the raw material side.

[SMM Lithium Battery Anode Raw Material Market Weekly Review: Demand Weakness Dominated This Week's Coke Price Trends, Production Resumptions and Supply Increase Pressured Subsequent Market Outlook] June 11 – This week, the quoted prices of China's low-sulphur petroleum coke fell, while oil-based needle raw coke prices moved sideways.

Over the next 1-2 weeks, the domestic petroleum coke market is expected to mainly edge lower amid stability. Low-sulphur petroleum coke prices will face relatively greater downward pressure, while mid and high-sulphur petroleum coke may see limited declines due to rigid demand support from the prebaked anode industry. The overall market will remain in the doldrums.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Briefing] In terms of news, mainstream steel mills have accepted the sixth round of coke price increases, with wet-quenched coke up by 50 yuan/mt and dry-quenched coke up by 55 yuan/mt, effective from 0:00 on June 10, 2026. Supply side, coking coal prices stayed high overall, with the pace of increases slowing partially. Coke enterprises' raw material costs remained elevated, capacity release was constrained, and tight procurement of high-quality coal feedstocks further limited production. Currently, coke shipments were smooth, and enterprise inventories were generally low. Demand side, hot metal production at steel mill blast furnaces remained high, while their own coke inventories kept declining, providing solid rigid demand support and strong restocking enthusiasm. In summary, market sources indicated that coke enterprises will issue a notice for the seventh round of coke price increases this Friday. The coke market will continue to strengthen in the short term.

Today, the most-traded HRC contract fluctuated lower, closing at 3,373, down 0.15% from the previous trading day. In terms of supply, mill maintenance further decreased WoW this week. According to SMM survey, after the SMM sample expansion this month, the planned hot-rolled commercial material volume of 54 steel mills totaled 17.538 million mt, up 1.0% MoM from actual production last month, with daily average production rising 4.4% MoM. Supply pressure increased further this month. On the demand side, demand was moderate today. As futures trended lower, end-users mainly purchased as needed, and there were shipments in the spot-futures price spread. On the cost side, the sixth round of coke price increases is about to be implemented, with a probability of further hikes thereafter. However, support from the iron ore side is weakening, and the unilateral cost support provided by coking coal and coke offers limited driving force. Overall, HRC's own drivers are weakening in the short term. Before cost support collapses, HRC will remain moving sideways in the near term.

DCE iron ore futures trended weaker today, with the most-traded contract I2609 closing at 759 yuan/mt, down 0.78% from the previous trading day. Port spot prices fell 5 yuan/mt from the day before. Traders followed the market trend with moderate offering interest; steel mills mainly engaged in need-based restocking, with limited inquiry. Trading volume of spot cargoes was modest as of now. Shipping data shows China's iron ore supply has entered a loose phase, with ore prices gradually coming under pressure. SMM data indicates that last week, global iron ore shipment volume dropped 3.88% WoW to 33.83 million mt, while iron ore arrivals at Chinese ports rose 2% WoW to 27.54 million mt. Meanwhile, the decline in port pick-up volume also reflects that demand from steel mills has begun to slow. With expectations of rising coking coal and coke prices still in place, even if hot metal prices remain elevated, steel mills' receptiveness to iron ore prices is quite constrained, making ore prices overall more likely to fall than rise. In the near term, iron ore prices will likely remain under pressure, exhibiting a generally weak trend.