SMM, May 22: Cobalt product prices showed mixed performance this week. Refined cobalt spot prices rose by 2,000 yuan/mt over the week, with downstream buyers still purchasing as needed. Cobalt salt performance was relatively weak, with cobalt sulphate, cobalt chloride, and Co3O4 spot prices all recording varying degrees of decline. The overall market performance was sluggish, still awaiting feedback from subsequent downstream production schedules... SMM compiled the price fluctuations of cobalt products this week, as follows: : According to SMM spot prices, refined cobalt spot prices fluctuated upward this week. As of May 22, refined cobalt spot prices rose to 424,000-430,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 427,000 yuan/mt, up 2,000 yuan/mt from May 15, a gain of 0.47%. Fundamentals: Supply side, mainstream smelters maintained stable quotes this week, with trader spot-futures price spreads stable at parity to a premium of 8,000-10,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises continued purchasing as needed, maintaining control over raw material inventory levels. The metal price spread between refined cobalt and low-priced cobalt salts remained at a low level, and cobalt salts were difficult to sell, making enterprises reluctant to re-dissolve cobalt salts to produce refined cobalt. The market is likely to continue its volatile pattern in the short term, and price rises still depend on effective support from cobalt salt prices. Cobalt salts ( and ): : According to SMM spot prices, cobalt sulphate spot prices continued to edge down this week. As of May 22, cobalt sulphate spot prices fell to 92,000-95,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 93,500 yuan/mt, down 1,000 yuan/mt from 94,500 yuan/mt on May 15, a decline of 1.06%. According to SMM, on the supply side of cobalt sulphate this week, mainstream brand price centers shifted down to 92,000-95,000 yuan/mt; some smelters and traders, under capital turnover pressure, again made concessions on shipments, with low-priced sources dropping to 88,000-89,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream enterprises still primarily consumed earlier inventory, with weak procurement enthusiasm, only making small just-in-time procurement for restocking. Some downstream sources reported that LCO production schedules fell short of expectations, and they maintained a wait-and-see stance before orders were confirmed. Cobalt sulphate prices are likely to continue fluctuating in the short term, with subsequent recovery still dependent on the release of downstream restocking demand. : According to SMM spot prices, cobalt chloride spot prices also declined this week. As of May 22, cobalt chloride spot prices fell to 112,000-115,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 113,750 yuan/mt, down 1,750 yuan/mt from 115,500 yuan/mt on May 15, a decline of 1.52%. From the spot market perspective, according to SMM, cobalt chloride market transactions were mediocre this week. Supply side, top-tier players continued to hold prices firm, refusing to sell at low prices, providing strong support for cobalt chloride prices; while small and medium-sized producers, constrained by capital recovery and performance pressure, proactively lowered quotes, but even with price cuts, transactions were difficult to conclude, leading to continued price declines. Demand side, downstream enterprises, affected by weak demand and inventory accumulation, maintained persistently low purchase willingness. SMM believes that current cobalt chloride prices already have strong support, with limited possibility of further decline, and holds an optimistic view on the market outlook. From a cost perspective, prices are expected to rebound subsequently, but upside room is limited, with the estimated period around June. : According to SMM spot prices, Co3O4 spot prices showed a volatile downward trend this week. As of May 22, Co3O4 spot prices fell to 353,000-363,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 358,000 yuan/mt, down 5,500 yuan/mt from 363,500 yuan/mt on May 15, a decline of 1.51%. According to SMM, the Co3O4 spot market continued its sluggish pattern this week. Supply side, enterprises found it difficult to maintain high prices and lowered prices to ship, but even so, product inventory continued to accumulate. Demand side, downstream LCO material enterprises still primarily relied on client-supplied materials plus long-term contracts, with spot order procurement volumes continuing to decline; meanwhile, affected by weak demand, some enterprises proactively slowed down their long-term contract cargo pick-up pace. Looking ahead, the subdued Co3O4 market is expected to persist for an extended period, but the price outlook remains positive, though support comes more from the cost side, with supply-demand and procurement factors having relatively limited impact. Regarding raw material cobalt intermediate products: According to SMM spot prices, cobalt intermediate product spot prices remained stable this week. As of May 22, cobalt intermediate product (CIF China) spot prices held steady at $25.8-26.2/lb, with an average price of $26/lb. According to SMM, on the supply side of cobalt intermediate products this week, suppliers maintained firm bullish expectations, with quotes consistently held above $26/lb. Demand side performance was stable; affected by weak cobalt salt prices, downstream smelters only made just-in-time procurement, with some non-standard products transacting near $25/lb. On the quota front, 2025 Q4 miner quota approvals were largely completed, while Q1 quota approvals were slower due to procedural constraints; coupled with tight logistics capacity in the DRC, where cobalt cargo had lower transportation priority, the arrival of large-volume shipments to China may be further delayed . In the short term, dragged by weak demand, prices are likely to remain stable, but after downstream orders materialize and restocking demand is released, intermediate product prices still have upside room for recovery. News: According to Webstock Inc., on May 18, Ilya Epikhin, Global Head of Natural Resources at consulting firm Arthur D. Little, stated that 2027 could see the first deep-sea mineral extraction, with copper, cobalt, and nickel being "mined" from the ocean for the first time. It is reported that polymetallic nodules on the seabed (containing 28%-30% manganese, 1% copper, 1% nickel, 0.2%-0.7% cobalt) are found at depths of 4,000-6,000 meters, with concentrations ranging from 5-15 kg per m², with the Clarion-Clipperton Zone in the North Pacific being the world's most resource-rich area for nodules. Corporate developments: On May 12, XTC New Energy Materials (Xiamen) was asked about the impact of cobalt raw material price increases on the company. XTC New Energy Materials (Xiamen) responded that the company is one of the world's largest cobalt consumers, maintaining long-term close cooperation with upstream enterprises, with stable cobalt raw material supply. In the 3C consumer electronics sector, clients focus more on LCO performance, so the negative impact of cobalt raw material price increases on the company's operations is relatively small. In terms of inventory management, the company adheres to a "short lead time, fast turnover" business strategy, building a robust raw material supply chain. Public information shows that XTC New Energy Materials (Xiamen)'s main products include LCO, ternary cathode material (including high-nickel ternary), and LFP, with its ternary cathode material firmly positioned in the industry's first tier. In 2025, the company actively seized demand growth opportunities from national device trade-in subsidy policies and increased battery capacity in 3C consumer devices driven by AI functions, closely addressing core client needs, fully leveraging its leading high-voltage LCO technology advantages, supplying first-tier smartphone and laptop brands, achieving full-year LCO sales of 65,300 mt (of which 4.5V and above high-voltage products accounted for 58%), with sales up 41.31% YoY. Tengyuan Cobalt mentioned its existing capacity in a previously released investor activity record. It stated that as of the end of Q1 2026, the company had capacity of 31,500 mt in metal content for cobalt products (including 8,000 mt in metal content for refined cobalt), 10,000 mt in metal content for nickel products, 10,000 mt in metal content for manganese products, 60,000 mt for copper products, 20,000 mt for ternary cathode precursor, 10,000 mt for Co3O4, and 5,000 mt for lithium carbonate. Additionally, when investors asked about the company's outlook on cobalt market trends this year, Tengyuan Cobalt stated that the strategic value and demand potential of cobalt are being redefined, with its resource attributes being continuously strengthened. Furthermore, as AI drives the emergence of new sectors such as humanoid robots, low-altitude economy, and robotic dogs, the accelerated industrialisation of ternary solid-state batteries will become the core new engine for cobalt demand growth, opening up medium and long-term, certain, and substantial incremental cobalt demand. Combined with cobalt's essential demand attributes, its growth potential will continue to shift upward.

SMM May 15 update: Cobalt product prices remained generally stable this week, with only refined cobalt and cobalt chloride prices edging down slightly, though overall fluctuations were relatively small. Among them, cobalt chloride market activity declined further, with scarce inquiries becoming a common feedback... SMM compiled the spot price fluctuations of cobalt products this week, as follows: : According to SMM spot quotes, spot refined cobalt prices edged down 500 yuan/mt this week before stabilizing temporarily. As of May 15, spot refined cobalt was quoted at 421,500-428,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 425,000 yuan/mt, down 0.12% from 425,500 yuan/mt on May 8. Fundamentals side, supply side, according to SMM, smelter quotes remained stable, while traders lowered the spot-futures price spread of mainstream brands to a premium of 7,000-8,000 yuan/mt to recoup funds. Demand side, downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises continued purchasing as needed, strictly controlling raw material inventory levels. Price spread structure side, the metal price spread between refined cobalt and lower-priced cobalt salts continued to stay at a relatively low level, limiting enterprises' enthusiasm for producing refined cobalt through the re-dissolution process. In the short term, SMM expects refined cobalt prices to continue consolidating, with future upside still dependent on effective price boosts from cobalt salts. Cobalt salts ( and): : According to SMM spot quotes, spot cobalt sulphate prices continued to hold stable this week. As of May 15, spot cobalt sulphate remained steady at 93,200-95,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 94,500 yuan/mt. According to SMM, on the cobalt sulphate supply side this week, mainstream brand quote centers remained in the 93,000-96,000 yuan/mt range. Boosted by the rebound in refined cobalt prices, some smelters and traders that had previously offered discounts to facilitate shipments raised their quotes slightly, and low-priced cargoes below 90,000 yuan/mt decreased significantly. Demand side, downstream enterprises still focused on digesting earlier inventory, with low enthusiasm for purchasing, and only a few with rigid demand restocked small volumes at lower prices. Notably, some Co3O4 enterprises increased their inquiry frequency recently, with purchasing sentiment showing signs of recovery. Production schedule side, both ternary and LCO enterprises saw restorative MoM growth in May production schedules. It is expected that as downstream restocking demand gradually releases going forward, cobalt sulphate prices are likely to see a phased rebound and recovery. : According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt chloride spot prices edged down by 100 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week and then stabilized. As of May 15, cobalt chloride spot prices stood at 114,000–117,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 115,500 yuan/mt, down 0.09% from May 8. Spot market: According to SMM, cobalt chloride market activity further declined this week, with scarce inquiries being a common feedback. Supply side, some top-tier players notably slowed down their shipment pace recently, with liquidity pressure emerging and quotes slightly softening; meanwhile, small and medium-sized producers had already proactively lowered prices earlier due to capital recovery and shipment pressure, and their current quotes have gradually stabilized with extremely limited room for further reduction. Demand side, downstream Co3O4 enterprises, constrained by their own significant shipment pressure, showed weak willingness to purchase cobalt chloride; in contrast, cathode material and battery cell segments, due to continued inventory depletion, recently began to release some restocking intentions. Overall, the market still lacked directional breakthrough momentum. Although sporadic low-price transactions occurred, they were unlikely to substantially impact overall pricing, constrained by enterprises' performance targets, capital conditions, and shipment volumes. Currently, downward momentum is insufficient, and raw material costs provide relatively strong bottom support. Cobalt chloride market is expected to remain largely stable in the near term, with substantive changes potentially awaiting late May . : According to SMM spot quotes, Co3O4 spot prices continued to hold stable this week. As of May 15, Co3O4 spot prices remained steady at 360,000–367,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 363,500 yuan/mt. Spot market: According to SMM, the Co3O4 market continued its previously sluggish pattern this week. Top-tier players slightly lowered their quotes, but cost support for Co3O4 remained effective, underpinned by periodically tight supply of cobalt intermediate products and firm cobalt chloride prices. Downstream LCO material enterprises continued to purchase as needed, restocking in small quantities mainly based on orders on hand, with market inquiry activity maintained at a moderate level. Looking ahead, end-use demand performance remains the key variable determining cathode material purchasing intensity. Given that market expectations for May are generally optimistic, attention should be paid to whether demand recovery can break the prolonged stable pattern and bring about periodic fluctuations. As for raw material cobalt intermediate products: According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) spot prices held stable at 25.8–26.2 $/lb this week, temporarily unchanged from May 8. According to SMM, on the supply side, most suppliers held an optimistic outlook for the market, with offers continuing to hold firm above $26/lb. The demand side saw little change; as cobalt salt prices lacked upward momentum, the market maintained only small-volume purchasing as needed, with bid prices fluctuating around approximately $25.8/lb. Regarding shipments, DRC-origin cargoes remained stranded at South African ports and in overland transit. Only a few miners completed small-batch vessel bookings in April, with arrivals expected to begin in June; however, due to tight shipping capacity in Africa, the remaining large-volume cargoes may be delayed until July for concentrated arrivals. Looking ahead, as downstream orders gradually become clearer and restocking demand is progressively released, cobalt intermediate product prices still have room for upward recovery. On the news front, on May 13, Hanrui Cobalt released its investor relations activity record. When asked about the company's cobalt powder business, Hanrui Cobalt stated that the company is a major global cobalt powder supplier, ranking among the top three in global market share. It is currently steadily increasing the product share in high-end cemented carbide and battery sectors, with client recognition continuing to strengthen. Cobalt salt gross margins have been continuously improving, and as the market recovers, capacity is released, and the product mix upgrades, profitability is expected to gradually recover. Regarding the outlook for cobalt price trends in 2026, Hanrui Cobalt stated that cobalt price trends are influenced by multiple factors. From a supply and demand perspective, with the implementation of the cobalt export quota system in the DRC, the world's largest cobalt-producing country, cobalt supply has contracted significantly, and overall supply and demand are currently in a tight balance. In addition, on May 12, SMM Vice President Shirley Wang attended the Cobalt Institute annual conference held in Madrid, Spain, and delivered a keynote speech in the opening session on the current status and outlook of China's cobalt market. Regarding cobalt price trends, she stated that although theoretical calculations suggest that in Q2 to Q3 2026, the concentrated arrival of previously backlogged cobalt intermediate products will cause the cobalt raw material supply-demand balance to temporarily reverse into an inventory buildup state, putting downward pressure on cobalt prices, the limited volume of available cobalt intermediate products in the market—constrained by inventory levels and market sales pace—will provide strong support for cobalt prices. Prices are expected to edge up after several months, but with a clear upward ceiling. She also noted that raw material inventory levels, other raw material supply (such as MHP and refined cobalt), and the shipment pace of cobalt intermediate products are the biggest uncertainty factors affecting price trends.

On May 12, 2026, Shirley Wang, SMM's Vice President, attended Cobalt Institute's Annual Conference held in Madrid, Spain. At this annual conference, SMM and the Cobalt Institute jointly hosted a sub-forum titled "China's ESG Landscape — Practical Insights for the Cobalt Value Chain ." Shirley delivered a keynote speech in the opening session on the current status and outlook of China's cobalt market, sharing insights on China's cobalt market supply-demand pattern and price trends, with a systematic analysis from three perspectives: supply structure changes, production outlook, and end-use demand. As a member of the Cobalt Institute, SMM has always been committed to working with international cobalt industry organizations, enterprises, and standard setters to build a more efficient and comprehensive cobalt industry value chain and market information system. s one of China's largest non-ferrous metals information service providers, SMM has fully leveraged its global advantages to establish a full-ecosystem value information system centered on China, covering upstream mining (DRC + Indonesia), midstream processing, downstream battery materials and trading, battery cell and battery manufacturing, and end-user new energy and consumer electronics applications. SMM has participated in the Cobalt Institute conference and delivered keynote speeches for three consecutive years. I. Market Supply Analysis 1.1 China's Total Supply and Raw Material Structure Changes Since Q2 last year, the effective supply of crude cobalt hydroxide has declined significantly . In the short term, MHP, black mass, and other raw materials are squeezing the market share of cobalt hydroxide, a trend that warrants continued attention. In terms of the raw material structure of cobalt products, in Q1 this year, cobalt hydroxide accounted for only about 10% of the raw material mix, MHP imports rose to over 15% , and recycled raw materials climbed to over 30% . Specifically, in the raw material composition of cobalt sulphate, the proportion of recycled raw materials increased significantly , with cobalt intermediate products falling to below 40% , and high-cobalt black mass reaching 30% . This structural shift reflects a profound adjustment underway in China's cobalt raw material supply. 1.2 Production Outlook China's recycled cobalt products production was approximately 24,000 mt in 2025, and is expected to approach 30,000 mt in 2026, maintaining a trend of edging up over the medium and long-term. In terms of supply of MHP, production this month was constrained by sulfur shortages , but in the long term, cobalt supply from MHP sources is expected to continue increasing. II. End-Use Demand Analysis 2.1 NEV Market Ternary market share continued to be squeezed by LFP, with overall growth limited. Meanwhile, affected by high cobalt prices and tight supply , cobalt consumption per mt of precursor declined. In Q1 this year, the weighted cobalt consumption per mt of precursor fell below 0.06 mt in metal content . Nevertheless, total cobalt demand from the NEV market continued to grow, but the growth rate was lower than previous expectations . 2.2 3C Products Market The 3C products market also faced significant pressure. Since the end of last year, sharp increases in chip prices drove up 3C product prices. In addition, to cope with cost pressure, some enterprises reduced cobalt usage in cathode materials by blending NCM , and 3C cobalt demand is expected to decline this year . However, in the medium and long-term, cobalt demand from 3C products still has room for growth. III. Price Trends and Outlook Regarding cobalt price trends, theoretical calculations suggest that in Q2 to Q3 2026, concentrated arrivals of previously backlogged cobalt intermediate products at ports will cause the cobalt raw material supply-demand balance to temporarily reverse into an inventory buildup state, putting downward pressure on cobalt prices. However, constrained by inventory levels and market sales pace , available cobalt intermediate products in the market are limited, providing strong support for cobalt prices. Prices are expected to edge up in the coming months, but there is a clear upside ceiling . She also pointed out that raw material inventory levels, other raw material supply (such as MHP, refined cobalt, etc.), and the shipments pace of cobalt intermediate products were the biggest uncertainties affecting price trends.

On May 12, 2026, SMM Vice President Wang Cong ( Shirley Wang) attended the Cobalt Institute Annual Conference held in Madrid, Spain. At this Cobalt Institute annual conference, SMM and the Cobalt Institute jointly hosted a sub-forum titled "China's ESG Landscape — Practical Insights for the Cobalt Value Chain." SMM delivered a keynote speech in the opening session on the current status and outlook of China's cobalt market, sharing insights on China's cobalt market supply-demand pattern and price trends , with a systematic analysis from three dimensions: supply structure changes, production outlook, and end-use demand. As a member of the Cobalt Institute, SMM has always been committed to working with international cobalt industry organizations, enterprises, and standard-setters to build a more efficient and comprehensive cobalt industry value chain and market information system. As one of China's largest non-ferrous metals information service providers, SMM has fully leveraged its global advantages to establish a full-ecosystem value information system centered on China, covering upstream mining (DRC + Indonesia), midstream processing, downstream battery materials and trading, battery cell and battery manufacturing, and terminal new energy and consumer electronics applications. SMM has participated in the Cobalt Institute conference and delivered keynote speeches for three consecutive years. I. Market Supply Analysis 1.1 China's Total Supply and Raw Material Structure Changes Since Q2 last year, the effective supply of crude cobalt hydroxide has declined significantly . In the short term, MHP, black mass, and other raw materials are squeezing the market share of cobalt hydroxide, a trend that warrants continued attention. In terms of the raw material structure of cobalt products, in Q1 this year, cobalt hydroxide accounted for only about 10% of the raw material structure, MHP imports rose to over 15% , and recycled raw materials climbed to over 30% . Among them, in the raw material composition of cobalt sulphate, the proportion of recycled raw materials increased significantly , with cobalt intermediate products falling to below 40% , and high-cobalt black mass reaching 30% . This structural change reflects a profound adjustment underway in China's cobalt raw material supply. 1.2 Production Outlook China's recycled cobalt products production was approximately 24,000 mt in 2025, and is expected to approach 30,000 mt in 2026, with a medium and long-term trend of edging up. In terms of MHP supply, production this month was somewhat affected by sulfur shortages in the short term, but in the long term, cobalt supply sourced from MHP is expected to continue increasing. II. End-Use Demand Analysis 2.1 NEV Market The ternary market share continued to be eroded by LFP, limiting overall growth. Meanwhile, affected by high cobalt prices and tight supply , cobalt consumption per mt of precursor declined. In Q1 this year, the weighted cobalt consumption per mt of precursor fell below 0.06 mt in metal content . Nevertheless, total cobalt demand from the NEV market continued to grow, but the growth rate was lower than previously expected . 2.2 3C Product Market The 3C product market also faced significant pressure. Since the end of last year, the sharp rise in chip prices drove up 3C product prices. In addition, to cope with cost pressure, some enterprises reduced cobalt usage in cathode materials by blending NCM , and cobalt demand for 3C applications is expected to decline this year . However, in the medium and long term, cobalt demand from 3C products still has room for growth. III. Price Trends and Outlook Regarding cobalt price trends, although theoretical calculations suggest that in Q2 to Q3 2026, concentrated arrivals of previously backlogged cobalt intermediate products at ports will cause the cobalt raw material supply-demand balance to temporarily shift to an inventory buildup state, putting downward pressure on cobalt prices, the limited amount of available cobalt intermediate products in the market, constrained by inventory levels and market sales pace , will provide strong support for cobalt prices. Prices are expected to edge up in the coming months, but there is a clear upside ceiling . She also noted that raw material inventory levels, other raw material supply (such as MHP and refined cobalt), and the shipment pace of cobalt intermediate products are the biggest uncertainties affecting price trends.

On April 21, a delegation from SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), comprising Ye Jianhua, Director and Supervisor of SMM's Industry Research Department, Feng Chundi, Expert of SMM's Industry Research Institute, and Wu Tao, SMM's Overseas Marketing Manager for Copper and Tin, visited Lualaba Copper Smelter S.A. (LCS) for a field trip and exchange. The delegation received a warm and thoughtful reception from the leadership of LCS. During the exchange, relevant heads of LCS provided a detailed introduction to the project's construction history, smelting process routes, current capacity operations, and overall business planning. SMM, drawing on global non-ferrous market trends, shared insights on copper-cobalt raw material supply and demand, the smelting and processing landscape, price fluctuation trends, and industry policy developments. Both parties engaged in in-depth discussions on practical topics including pyrometallurgy production management outside China, raw material supply assurance, environmental protection operations and maintenance, cost control, and industry outlook assessment. They also exchanged experiences and ideas on overseas smelter operations management, risk prevention, and medium and long-term development planning. This field trip and exchange was pragmatic and efficient, effectively enhancing mutual understanding and laying a solid foundation for ongoing industry information sharing and long-term exchange and cooperation. Introduction to Lualaba Copper Smelter S.A. (LCS) Lualaba Copper Smelter S.A. (LCS) is a modern non-ferrous metal smelting enterprise jointly invested and constructed by China Nonferrous Metal Mining (Group) Co., Ltd. and Chalco Yunnan Copper Group, located in Kolwezi, Lualaba Province, DRC. Construction commenced in March 2018, and Phase I was completed and successfully put into operation in October 2019. It is the first large-scale pyrometallurgy copper-cobalt smelter in the DRC and serves as a key strategic pillar of China Nonferrous Metal Mining Group's resource development and industrial deployment in Africa. With copper concentrates smelting as its core business, LCS's main products include blister copper, sulphuric acid, and liquid sulfur dioxide, with an annual capacity of 150,000 mt of blister copper and 300,000 mt of sulphuric acid. As an important participant in the Belt and Road Initiative, LCS has consistently upheld the development philosophy of "serving the nation through resources and pursuing win-win cooperation," actively fulfilling its social responsibilities, promoting local employment and industrial development, and striving to build an internationally competitive copper smelter while continuously enhancing the influence of Chinese mining enterprises in the global non-ferrous metals industry. The conference is scheduled to be held on September 15–16, 2026 in Lusaka, Zambia. You are cordially invited to participate! Contact Person : Wu Tao: 18270916376 jennywu@smm.cn

Refined Cobalt: This week, spot prices for refined cobalt rebounded from previous lows. Supply side, mainstream smelters steadily raised their ex-works quotations in line with the increase in electronic trading prices. Traders' spot-futures price spreads generally held steady, with spreads for regular brands maintained at discounts of around 2,000 yuan/mt to parity, while spreads for high-end brands remained at premiums of 4,000-6,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream enterprises had just resumed production in the first week after the holiday, mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and actual market transactions had not yet shown a significant increase. The rebound in refined cobalt prices this week was mainly driven by two factors: first, domestic refined cobalt prices had been lower than overseas market prices for an extended period before the Chinese New Year, creating a need for price spread correction; second, recent news that some overseas companies plan to purchase refined cobalt boosted market sentiment. From a fundamental perspective, cobalt intermediate product raw materials have still not arrived in large volumes at ports, and the structurally tight supply of upstream raw materials has not fundamentally changed, which continues to provide some support for cobalt prices. Looking ahead, as downstream enterprises' restocking demand is gradually released, refined cobalt prices are expected to still have upside room. Cobalt Intermediate Products: This week, the cobalt intermediate products market continued to hold up well. Supply side, it is understood that export procedures in the DRC remain relatively cumbersome, and miners have not yet achieved large-scale shipments. Suppliers' expectations for price increases have strengthened, leading them to continue suspending external quotations. Demand side, as time passes, the issue of raw material shortages for domestic smelters has become increasingly prominent. Although some enterprises have purchase willingness, due to the inability of the supply side to guarantee stable shipments and the lack of clarity in downstream orders, smelters are exercising caution in procurement amid uncertainties on both the purchasing and sales sides. Actual market transactions remain sluggish, continuing a state of "price without market." Overall, the current export progress of cobalt intermediate products is slow, and the timeline for large-scale arrivals at ports may continue to be delayed. The structurally tight supply of domestic cobalt raw materials could further intensify. It is expected that after downstream orders gradually become clear post-holiday and smelters initiate a new round of procurement, intermediate product prices will still have upward momentum. Subsequent attention should be paid to the progress of DRC exports and the pace of downstream demand recovery. Cobalt Sulphate: This week marked the first trading week after the Chinese New Year. The spot cobalt sulphate market performed sluggishly overall, with prices remaining stable. In terms of supply, most smelters had just resumed operations, and market sentiment remained dominated by a wait-and-see attitude. Producers continued to suspend quotations, leading to relatively tight spot availability. On the demand side, logistics had not fully recovered in the first week after the holiday, and downstream enterprises also adopted a wait-and-see stance. Actual transactions were limited, and overall market activity was subdued. Looking ahead, logistics are expected to gradually return to normal after the Lantern Festival. Coupled with downstream enterprises' inventory levels pulling back to near safety thresholds, restocking demand is anticipated to be released gradually. Against the backdrop of phased supply tightening and sustained raw material cost support, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to resume an upward trend.

I. Cobalt Price Review During Chinese New Year During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday (February 15 to February 23), domestic refined cobalt electronic night session trading saw prices rebound slightly from previous lows. The spot market was relatively sluggish due to logistics suspensions. Overseas prices showed divergence: the low end of standard-grade refined cobalt remained stable, while the high end increased by $0.1/lb; both low and high ends of alloy-grade refined cobalt rose by $0.3/lb and $0.4/lb, respectively. CIF China cobalt hydroxide prices remained stable. II. Market Dynamics Cuba's fuel shortage will force Sherritt to suspend its nickel-cobalt operations: Due to ongoing tight fuel supply in Cuba, Sherritt International Corp. plans to suspend mining and processing operations at its Moa nickel-cobalt joint project and has already scaled down operations ahead of schedule, with suspension expected in the short term. Planned maintenance will be conducted during the shutdown. Failure to secure fuel deliveries is the direct cause of the suspension; the company is communicating with relevant parties and evaluating alternative input sources. The project, in partnership with state-owned General Nickel Company SA, typically ships semi-finished products to a refinery in Alberta, Canada, which has an integrated capacity of approximately 38,200 mt. However, this production accounts for a relatively small share of global nickel supply, so the impact on the international market is limited, though it will affect the company's finances and Cuba's economy. Meanwhile, Energas SA, an energy joint venture in which Sherritt holds a one-third stake, continues normal operations, supplying natural gas for power generation to Cuba's power grid, unaffected by this incident. Overall, the suspension reflects the direct constraints of Cuba's long-term economic and energy crisis on industrial projects. Sumitomo's Madagascar nickel-cobalt project shuts down due to cyclone damage: Japan's Sumitomo Corporation stated on February 18 that its Ambatovy nickel-cobalt project in Madagascar was shut down after Tropical Cyclone Ghezani hit the island last week, causing facility damage. Operations were suspended immediately once signs of the cyclone became apparent, with safety as the top priority, the company said in a statement. It added that a detailed assessment of the damage, including equipment conditions and the impact on revenue, is currently underway. Sumitomo will work to identify the extent of the losses as soon as possible and collaborate with relevant parties to implement appropriate recovery and reconstruction measures, the statement added. A company spokesperson said the timeline for restarting operations is undetermined and assessing the extent of the damage is expected to take several weeks. Ambatovy is owned by Sumitomo, with state-owned Korea Mine Rehabilitation and Mineral Resources Corp (KOMIR) producing approximately 28,000 mt of nickel and about 2,500 mt of cobalt in 2024. III. Post-Holiday Outlook Supply side, cobalt raw materials from the DRC are still unable to be replenished in the short term, and enterprises are facing pressure from raw material shortages. Coupled with production halts at some enterprises during the Chinese New Year holiday, production plans have been reduced. Refined cobalt production in February is expected to remain low, and the overall supply of cobalt salts is projected to decline slightly. Demand side, prior to the Chinese New Year, some downstream ternary cathode precursor enterprises showed increased purchase willingness and active inquiries due to concerns about rising cobalt sulphate prices after the holiday. However, as logistics were about to halt at that time, actual transactions were relatively limited. With the resumption of logistics after the holiday and downstream enterprises gradually resuming production and restocking, demand is expected to be gradually released. Looking ahead, against the backdrop of continued support from raw material costs, phased tightening of supply, and phased recovery in demand, refined cobalt and cobalt salt prices are expected to resume an upward trend.

Cobalt Metal: This week, the domestic cobalt metal market saw limited overall changes, with spot prices rebounding slightly within a low range. Both supply and demand remained mediocre: mainstream smelters’ ex-works quotations were largely stable; approaching year-end, logistics gradually halted, and inquiries and quotations from traders and downstream enterprises essentially ceased, resulting in sluggish market activity. Fundamentally, cobalt intermediate products as raw materials have yet to arrive at ports in large volumes, and the structurally tight supply pattern upstream has not fundamentally shifted, continuing to provide some support for cobalt prices. Looking ahead, as market operations gradually resume after the Chinese New Year, restocking demand from downstream sectors is expected to be released, and refined cobalt prices are anticipated to retain upside room. Cobalt Hydroxide: This week, the cobalt intermediate products market continued to exhibit a “price without market” pattern. Supply side, most intermediate products from miners are still awaiting shipment locally in the DRC, with external quotations yet to resume, keeping spot supply tight. Demand side, as year-end approaches, some smelters have entered production line clearing and maintenance shutdowns, leading to a noticeable weakening in raw material purchase willingness and maintaining sluggish actual transactions. Overall, against the backdrop of an unclear timeline for large-scale arrivals of cobalt intermediate products at ports and escalating geopolitical risks, the structurally tight supply of cobalt raw materials in China may further intensify. Intermediate product prices are expected to retain upward momentum in the short term, with subsequent focus needed on logistics recovery pace and miners’ export progress. Cobalt Sulphate: This week, the cobalt sulphate market maintained generally sluggish operations, with spot prices largely stable. Supply side, approaching the Chinese New Year holiday, most smelters have successively scheduled maintenance shutdowns, reducing spot offers. Meanwhile, boosted by recent positive news from the cobalt ore sector, enterprises’ bullish expectations for the future have strengthened, leading producers to suspend quotations and tightening spot supply. Demand side, due to concerns over post-holiday cobalt sulphate price increases, downstream enterprises’ purchase willingness has recovered compared to the previous period, with some small and medium-sized ternary cathode precursor makers actively inquiring. However, with pre-holiday logistics halts imminent, actual transactions remained relatively limited, and overall market activity was subdued. Looking ahead, as logistics resume after the holiday and downstream enterprises gradually restart production and restock, demand is expected to be released progressively. Against the backdrop of phased supply tightening and sustained raw material cost support, cobalt sulphate prices are projected to regain an upward trend.

Refined Cobalt: The domestic refined cobalt market saw limited overall changes this week, with spot prices rebounding slightly within a low range. Both supply and demand remained mediocre: mainstream smelters' ex-works offers were largely stable; approaching year-end, logistics gradually halted, and inquiries and offers from traders and downstream enterprises basically ceased, resulting in sluggish market trading. Fundamentally, cobalt intermediate products have yet to arrive at ports in large volumes, and the structurally tight supply of upstream raw materials has not fundamentally shifted, continuing to provide some support for cobalt prices. Looking ahead, as market operations gradually resume after the Chinese New Year, downstream restocking demand is expected to be released, and refined cobalt prices are anticipated to retain upside room. Cobalt Intermediate Products: The cobalt intermediate products market continued to exhibit a "price without market" pattern this week. Supply side, most intermediate products from miners are still awaiting shipment locally in the DRC, with no resumed external offers, keeping spot cargo supply tight. Demand side, approaching year-end, some smelters entered production line clearing and maintenance shutdowns, leading to significantly weaker raw material purchase willingness, and actual market transactions remained sluggish. Overall, with the timing of large-scale arrivals of cobalt intermediate products at ports still unclear, coupled with escalating geopolitical risks, the structurally tight supply of cobalt raw materials in China may further intensify. Intermediate product prices are expected to maintain upward momentum in the short term, with subsequent focus needed on logistics recovery pace and miner export progress. Cobalt Sulphate: The cobalt sulphate market maintained generally sluggish operations this week, with spot prices largely stable. Supply side, nearing the Chinese New Year holiday, most smelters have successively scheduled maintenance shutdowns, reducing spot offers. Meanwhile, boosted by recent positive news from the cobalt ore sector, enterprises' bullish expectations for the future have strengthened, with producers suspending offers and spot cargo supply tightening. Demand side, due to concerns over post-holiday cobalt sulphate price increases, downstream enterprises' purchase willingness recovered somewhat compared to earlier periods, with some small and medium-sized ternary cathode precursor makers actively inquiring. However, with pre-holiday logistics halting imminently, actual transactions remained relatively limited, and overall market trading was subdued. Looking ahead, as logistics resume post-holiday and downstream enterprises gradually restart production and restock, demand is expected to be released progressively. Against the backdrop of phased supply tightening and sustained raw material cost support, cobalt sulphate prices are projected to regain an upward trend. SMM New Energy Research Team Cong Wang 021-5166-6838 Rui Ma 021-5159-5780 Disheng Feng 021-5166-6714 Yanlin Lü 021-2070-7875 Wenhao Xiao 021-5166-6872 Haohan Zhang 021-5166-6752 Zihan Wang 021-5166-6914 Jie Wang 021-5159-5902 Yang Xu 021-5166-6760 Lianting Yang 021-5159-5835 Zhaoyu Wang 021-5166-6827

The cobalt intermediate products market remained in a state of nominal pricing with thin trading this week, with prices holding steady in the range of $25.5–26.0/lb. News such as the US "stockpiling plan" and the acquisition of certain cobalt mining rights of overseas miners by US-funded enterprises heightened market concerns about cobalt raw material shortages in China in 2026, strengthening suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm. However, as the year-end approaches, some smelters have entered the stage of clearing production lines and preparing for shutdowns, leading to a noticeable decline in purchase willingness and resulting in sluggish actual market transactions. Overall, against the backdrop of large-scale arrivals of cobalt intermediate products remaining distant, increased geopolitical risks are expected to exacerbate the structural tightness of domestic intermediate products, maintaining upward pressure on prices.