SMM News, May 22: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.19%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.1%. SHFE lead rose 0.54%, and SHFE zinc edged up. SHFE tin rose 0.09%. SHFE nickel fell 0.59%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.11%, and the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.04%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.28%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.59%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 1.38%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore rose 0.19%, rebar fell 0.38%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.76%, and stainless steel rose 0.4%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 3.07%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.78%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper fell 0.06%. LME aluminum rose 0.15%, and LME lead edged up. LME zinc rose 0.35%. LME tin rose 0.34%. LME nickel rose 0.16%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 0.43%, and COMEX silver fell 0.33%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.13%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.61%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.34%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 0.57%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 4.51%, closing at 3,032.5 points. As of 11:41 on May 22, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 210 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 70 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,570 yuan/mt, down 955 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,465 yuan/mt, down 950 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro front Domestic: [NDRC: Supply-demand relationship expected to further improve, prices expected to continue operating within a stable range] Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated that prices in April continued the mild rebound trend since H2 last year, releasing positive signals of improving supply-demand relationship and optimized market order. Although the trajectory of international energy prices remained uncertain, China had a solid foundation for maintaining overall price stability. As a series of macro policies are implemented in depth, the supply-demand relationship in the market is expected to further improve, and prices are projected to continue operating within a stable range. [NDRC: During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, investment of over 5 trillion yuan is expected for new-type power grid construction] The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee proposed strengthening the planning and construction of "six networks," including water networks, new-type power grids, computing power networks, next-generation communication networks, urban underground pipe networks, and logistics networks. On May 22, the NDRC held a press conference. At the conference, Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office of the NDRC, stated that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, investment of over 5 trillion yuan is expected to be directed toward planning and constructing a number of power transmission corridors and inter-provincial power supply projects, optimizing ultra-high voltage and extra-high voltage AC networks by layer and zone, and implementing a number of urban distribution network renewal projects, power grid renovation projects in weak areas, and rural grid frequent outage remediation projects. Li Chao stated that based on comprehensive analysis, the national peak electricity load this summer is expected to reach approximately 1.6 billion kW , an increase of about 90 million kW over last year, equivalent to adding the electricity load of an entire Henan Province. [NDRC: Guiding domestic large models to intensify efforts in adapting to domestic computing chips] Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office of the NDRC, stated at a press conference on May 22 that core technologies and application demands in the artificial intelligence sector are both exhibiting rapid growth. We have consistently adhered to systematic planning, sector-specific policies, openness and sharing, and safe and controllable development, promoting the broad and deep integration of artificial intelligence with all industries and sectors of the economy and society, guiding domestic large models to intensify efforts in adapting to domestic computing chips, and ensuring autonomous controllability, development for good, and steady long-term progress while maintaining rapid development, so that all people can share in the fruits of AI development. This is also a prominent characteristic of China's AI development. The PBOC conducted 153 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market, with the operation rate at 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 500 million yuan of reverse repos matured. US dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index rose 0.05% to 99.25. The White House stated that the swearing-in ceremony for new Fed Chairman Warsh will be held at 11:00 AM on May 22 (23:00 Beijing time). Fed's Barkin stated that the ability of enterprises and consumers to absorb the latest round of supply shocks will determine whether the US central bank can continue to "look through" higher inflation without choosing to raise interest rates. In remarks prepared for a speech in Raleigh, North Carolina on Thursday, Barkin stated: "After inflation has been above our 2% target for more than five consecutive years, we need to consider whether the cumulative effect of so many rounds of shocks could cause the 'anchor' of inflation expectations to loosen."He also stated: "For me, the key question is how much more pressure enterprises, consumers, and inflation expectations can withstand." Barkin also expressed growing concern that the US may have entered a "new phase" in which supply shocks will become more frequent. These shocks could stem from multiple factors, including escalating geopolitical tensions, fragmentation of the trade system, more extreme weather events, rising government debt, and other structural forces. He also noted that, for now, the US Fed's monetary policy stance is "in a good place" to address risks on both the employment and inflation fronts. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June was 96.8%, with a 3.2% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike. The probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through July was 85.4%, with a 14.2% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike and a 0.4% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike. In addition, Nomura Securities expects the US Fed to keep rates unchanged in 2026, having previously forecast interest rate cuts in September and December this year. (Jin Shi Data) On the data front: Data to be released today include the US May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final reading, the US May one-year inflation expectations final reading, the US April Conference Board Leading Index month-over-month, the UK May GfK Consumer Confidence Index, UK April public sector net borrowing, UK April seasonally adjusted retail sales month-over-month, the Germany June GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Germany Q1 non-seasonally adjusted GDP year-over-year final reading, Germany May IFO Business Climate Index, Japan April core CPI year-over-year, and Canada March retail sales month-over-month. In addition, 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin will deliver a speech, and US Fed Governor Waller will deliver a speech. On crude oil: As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 1.21% and Brent up 1.7%. Fluctuating US-Iran developments affected oil price movements, with market doubts over whether US-Iran negotiations could make progress supporting oil prices. Four sources said that seven major OPEC+ producing countries will most likely agree to a modest raise in the July production target when they meet on June 7, although supply from several of them remains disrupted by the Iran war. The sources said the monthly production target set by the seven core OPEC+ members is expected to be raised by approximately 188,000 barrels per day. In Q1 2026, OPEC+ maintained production unchanged, but since April, the group has raised its monthly production target despite the ongoing war. However, since the UAE's exit from the organization in May, the monthly production increase has been scaled back. Analysts and delegates believe that while the UAE's departure has weakened the organization's influence over the market, it may strengthen its internal cohesion. Additionally, sources said that two other OPEC+ meetings scheduled for June 7 are not expected to result in any policy adjustments. IEA Executive Director Birol said on Thursday that the arrival of the summer peak fuel demand season, combined with the lack of new oil exports from the Middle East and continued inventory drawdowns, could push the oil market into a "danger zone" during July-August, though he did not elaborate further. In his speech, Birol said the world was in a state of oil surplus when the supply crisis triggered by the Iran war broke out, which helped cushion the impact, but inventories are now steadily declining. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM May 22 update: Metals market: Overnight, base metals generally fell across both domestic and overseas markets. LME lead led the gains with a 1.39% increase, SHFE lead rose 0.57%, and LME aluminum gained 0.29%. LME nickel and SHFE tin both fell over 1%, with LME nickel down 1.21% and SHFE tin down 1.03%. LME tin closed flat at $53,795/mt, while other metals declined less than 1%. The alumina main contract fell 0.37%, and the casting aluminum main contract dropped 0.26%. Overnight, ferrous metals collectively declined, with hot-rolled coil down 0.7%, rebar down 0.5%, and iron ore and stainless steel showing slight fluctuations. Coking coal and coke side, coking coal fell 2.86% and coke dropped 1.53%. Overnight, precious metals side, COMEX gold rose 0.2% and COMEX silver gained 1.09%. In China, SHFE gold rose 0.43% and SHFE silver gained 1.85%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:40 AM on May 22: Macro Front China: [NDRC: To improve policy measures on fair competition, investment and financing, promotion of technological innovation, and business regulation] Li Hui, Director of the Private Economy Development Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that the NDRC will better leverage its coordination function in promoting private economy development, organize and implement specific measures outlined in the rule-of-law action plan for safeguarding the private economy, and strengthen the implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law. The NDRC will improve supporting systems, refine relevant policy measures on fair competition, investment and financing, promotion of technological innovation, and business regulation; continue to jointly release typical cases with relevant departments to demonstrate law interpretation through cases; implement policy effectiveness assessments, promote direct and swift delivery of enterprise-benefiting policies, and guide enterprises in enhancing governance capabilities. US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.08% to 99.21. Last week, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits decreased, indicating a degree of resilience in the labour market and providing room for the US Fed to focus on addressing rising inflation. Data showed that initial jobless claims fell by 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 209,000 for the week ending May 16. Although economists expect jobless claims to increase over the summer due to seasonal factors, the labour market currently remains in a holding pattern. Financial markets currently expect the US Fed to maintain the benchmark overnight rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range until next year. Jin Shi Data APP) US Fed's Barkin stated that the ability of enterprises and consumers to absorb the latest round of supply shocks will determine whether the US central bank can continue to "look through" higher inflation without raising interest rates. In remarks prepared for a speech in Raleigh, North Carolina on Thursday, Barkin said: "After inflation has been above our 2% target for more than five years, it's worth asking whether the cumulative effect of so many rounds of shocks might loosen the 'anchor' of inflation expectations." He also said: "For me, the key question is how much more pressure enterprises, consumers, and inflation expectations can bear." Barkin added that he is increasingly concerned that the US may have entered a "new phase" in which supply shocks will become more frequent. These shocks could stem from multiple factors, including heightened geopolitical tensions, fragmentation of the trading system, more extreme weather events, rising government debt, and other structural forces. He also noted that, for now, the US Fed's monetary policy stance is "in a good place" to address risks on both the employment and inflation fronts. (Jin Shi Data APP) According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through June was 96.8%, with a 3.2% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike. The probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through July was 85.4%, with a 14.2% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike and a 0.4% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike. (Jin Shi Data APP) On the data front: Data to be released today include the US May University of Michigan consumer sentiment index final reading, US May one-year inflation expectations final reading, US April Conference Board leading indicators MoM, UK May GfK consumer confidence index, UK April public sector net borrowing, UK April seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM, Germany June GfK consumer confidence index, Germany Q1 non-seasonally adjusted GDP YoY final reading, Germany May IFO business climate index, Japan April core CPI YoY, and Canada March retail sales MoM. In addition, 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin will deliver a speech, and US Fed Governor Waller will deliver a speech. On crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices on both markets fell together, with WTI down 0.26% and Brent down 0.1%. According to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) citing Al Arabiya, a final draft of the US-Iran agreement has been reached under Pakistan's mediation and is expected to be announced within the coming hours. Rapidan Energy Group stated that if the Strait of Hormuz closure persists through August, downside economic risks will increase, with severity potentially approaching that of the 2008 Great Recession. The consultancy's base-case scenario assumes the waterway will reopen in July, under which daily average oil demand would decline by 2.6 million barrels and the benchmark Brent crude oil spot price would peak near $130 per barrel during the summer. (Wallstreetcn) According to informed sources, seven major OPEC+ producing countries may agree to a modest raise in oil production for July when they meet on June 7. Despite the ongoing Iran war currently raging, actual crude delivery channels for several of these countries remain in a state of complete disruption. The monthly combined production target proposed by the seven core OPEC+ members is expected to increase by approximately 188,000 barrels per day. Official OPEC statistics showed that total global OPEC+ oil production plunged sharply from 42.77 million barrels per day in February this year to 33.19 million barrels per day in April. Of that, daily production from Gulf region producing countries alone collapsed by 9.9 million barrels. (Reuters) As the US-Iran conflict has resulted in the loss of millions of barrels of crude oil supply, demand slowdown will be forced to become the primary means of balancing the supply-demand gap. The market is increasingly inclined to believe that oil prices will peak near $100 per barrel over the next year. This was one of the conclusions from a Bloomberg Intelligence survey this month, which received 126 responses from asset managers and other energy market professionals. Amrita Sen, co-founder and head of research at Energy Aspects, stated that the oil market is currently in a state of severe undersupply but has not yet faced a major shortage. The market is currently drawing down inventory and strategic reserves, but Energy Aspects estimates that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, shortages could begin to emerge by the end of June. "We are really just barely getting by right now, drawing down those inventories. Global refiners' purchases are low, and if they start buying again, market prices could overshoot. There won't be a global tank-bottoming, but it will certainly happen in some regions — on the crude side, parts of Asia, while the US refined products market is currently heading rapidly in that direction." (Bloomberg)

SMM May 18 Update: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight session saw a broad sell-off across both domestic and overseas metals markets, with most declining over 1%. LME tin led the decline at 4.03%, LME copper fell 3.15%, LME aluminum and SHFE tin dropped over 2% (LME aluminum -2.36%, SHFE tin -2.84%). LME lead, LME zinc, LME nickel, SHFE copper, and SHFE nickel all fell over 1% (LME lead -1.39%, LME zinc -1.35%, LME nickel -1.9%, SHFE copper -1.29%, SHFE nickel -1.3%). SHFE lead and SHFE zinc fell less than 1% (SHFE lead -0.6%, SHFE zinc -0.44%). The alumina front-month contract fell 1.19%, and the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 0.99%. Last Friday's overnight session saw broad declines in ferrous metals. Stainless steel fell 0.94%, and iron ore fell 0.8%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar dropped over 0.6% (hot-rolled coil -0.63%, rebar -0.62%). For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.49% and coke fell 1.32%. Last Friday's overnight session for precious metals: COMEX gold fell 3.02% overnight, down 3.96% on the week; COMEX silver plunged 10.59%, down 5.65% on the week. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.13%, down 3.37% on the week; SHFE silver fell 6.79%, down 3.26% on the week. This was mainly driven by rising US Treasury yields and the strengthening of the US dollar with no resolution in sight, while the US-Iran conflict intensified inflation concerns, further reinforcing market expectations of interest rate hikes. As of 8:24 AM on May 16, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro Front Wang Yi briefed the media on the China-US summit and the consensus reached. Wang Yi stated that the two heads of state interacted for nearly 9 hours and agreed that building a "China-US Constructive Strategic Stability Relationship" was the most important political consensus. At the invitation of President Trump, President Xi Jinping will pay a state visit to the US this autumn. The economic and trade teams of both countries reached overall balanced and positive outcomes, including continuing to implement all consensus from previous negotiations, agreeing to establish a Trade Council and an Investment Council, addressing each other's concerns on agricultural product market access, and promoting the expansion of two-way trade under a reciprocal tariff reduction framework. China: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs provided consolidated responses on China-US economic and trade issues including semiconductors, rare earths, Boeing, and oil purchases. On May 15, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Guo Jiakun hosted a regular press conference and provided consolidated responses on China-US economic and trade issues. Regarding rare earth supply, China is committed to maintaining the stability of global supply chains. Regarding purchases of US oil and Boeing aircraft, China expressed willingness to jointly safeguard energy security and supply chain stability, emphasizing the mutually beneficial nature of China-US economic and trade relations. Qiushi Journal published an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping titled "Making the Real Economy Stronger, Better, and Bigger." The article pointed out that manufacturing is the foundation of the real economy, and high-quality development of manufacturing should be given a more prominent position, with unwavering commitment to building a manufacturing powerhouse. It called for implementing industrial foundation re-engineering projects and major technical equipment breakthrough projects, supporting the development of specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative enterprises, and promoting high-end, intelligent, and green development of manufacturing. It also called for promoting the integrated cluster development of strategic emerging industries and building a batch of new growth engines in areas such as next-generation information technology, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, and green environmental protection. US dollar: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 99.28, up 1.45% on the week. Rising energy prices and prolonged shipping disruptions intensified inflationary pressures, pushing up market expectations that the US Fed would raise interest rates this year. US interest rate futures prices fell sharply on Friday, reflecting growing conviction among bond market investors that elevated inflation would force the US Fed to raise interest rates later this year or in early 2027. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market priced in approximately a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next January, with a 50% probability of a rate hike in December. US April retail sales grew further, but part of the increase may have stemmed from rising inflation, as the Iran conflict pushed up energy and other commodity prices. Data released Thursday showed April retail sales rose 0.5%, in line with market expectations, while the March increase was revised down to 1.6%. The Iran conflict is driving up inflation; US Energy Information Administration data showed gasoline prices rose 12.3% in April. Despite surging oil prices, consumer spending had not yet noticeably shifted away from other areas due to larger tax refund amounts this year. IRS data showed that as of April 25, the average refund amount increased by $323 compared to the same period in 2025. However, this support is fading. Economists at PNC Financial Services Group stated that based on internal data analysis, "consumers are spending their tax refunds faster than last year, especially among lower-income households," adding that "the amount of refund money being used to pay off credit card and other debts is also declining." (Jin10 Data APP) The Fed Board of Governors said in a statement on Friday that it had appointed Jerome Powell as chair pro tempore until his successor Kevin Warsh is officially sworn in. The US Fed stated: "This interim step of appointing the current chair as chair pro tempore is consistent with the practice followed during previous chair transitions." In response, Fed Governors Bowman and Milan stated that they did not support the interim appointment. On May 15, Powell's term as Fed Chairman expired. (Wallstreetcn) Analysts at BofA Global Research: If strong global economic growth prevents the US Fed from cutting interest rates, emerging markets could perform well. However, under scenarios of asymmetric growth (favoring the US) or a global stagflation shock, emerging markets would be more vulnerable. On the currency front, even though the election trigger point is still months away, commodity outlook and monetary policy should continue to provide support for the Brazilian real. (Wallstreetcn) Data: This week, China will release data including April total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, April industrial value added of enterprises above designated size YoY, the one-year Loan Prime Rate as of May 20, and April Swift RMB share in global payments. The US will release data including initial jobless claims for the week ending May 16, weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 2, April pending home sales index MoM, April annualized housing starts, April building permits, May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, continuing jobless claims for the week ending May 9, May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary, May S&P Global Services PMI preliminary, May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final, May NAHB Housing Market Index, May one-year inflation expectations final, and April Conference Board Leading Index MoM. The UK will release data including March three-month ILO unemployment rate, April unemployment rate, April claimant count, April CPI MoM, April Retail Price Index MoM, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, May Services PMI preliminary, May CBI Industrial Orders balance, May GfK Consumer Confidence Index, April public sector net borrowing, and April seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM. Germany will release data including April PPI MoM, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, June GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Q1 final non-seasonally adjusted GDP YoY, and May IFO Business Climate Index. The eurozone will release data including March seasonally adjusted trade balance, April CPI YoY final, April CPI MoM final, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, March seasonally adjusted current account, and May Consumer Confidence Index preliminary. Canada will release data including April CPI MoM and March retail sales MoM. Japan's April core CPI YoY, France's May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, and Australia's April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate will also be released. In addition, in China, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on residential property prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance, and a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. At 2:00 AM on May 21, the US Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting. ECB Chief Economist Lane and Fed Governor Waller will speak at an ECB research conference. 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen will deliver a speech. Crude oil: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US-Iran standoff over Strait of Hormuz passage remained unresolved, and both benchmarks rose. WTI gained 4.44% and Brent gained 3.55%. On the week, WTI rose 10.73% and Brent rose 8.08%. As the Iran conflict cut off energy supplies from the Persian Gulf, US refiners are ramping up fuel production to fill supply gaps in gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Analysts said this rapid growth trend is expected to keep many refineries operating at effective maximum capacity for at least the remainder of 2026. Reduced spare crude oil supply in Europe and other regions, combined with the difficulty of restoring post-conflict infrastructure in the Middle East in the short term, is pushing up crude oil refining margins. Analysts said this rapid growth trend is expected to keep many refineries operating at effective maximum capacity for at least the remainder of 2026. Data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that the so-called "capacity utilization rate" has climbed for three consecutive weeks and is now approaching 92%. In recent weeks, gasoline production hit a nine-month high, while jet fuel production reached its highest level since the summer of 2024. (Jin10 Data APP) US Energy Secretary Wright said at an event in Sabine Pass, Texas on Friday that the US will replenish every barrel of crude oil released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). He said: "We are releasing oil now, and for every barrel released, we will put back at least 1.2 barrels into the reserve. Ultimately, we will make the reserve larger than when we started." (Jin10 Data APP) According to US media reports, the Trump administration plans to streamline the permitting process for oil projects within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska to boost crude oil production in the US Arctic region. The Interior Department's move aims to establish a new permitting framework for the construction and operation of oil production facilities and related infrastructure. Under the plan, eligible projects could receive analysis and authorization more quickly, potentially within just 30 days. This initiative could benefit companies holding leases in the reserve, such as ConocoPhillips, Santos, and Repsol, and accelerate government review of projects like ConocoPhillips' Willow project, which had drawn strong opposition from climate activists. During the Iran conflict, with approximately 20% of global supply trapped in the Persian Gulf, the Trump administration has stepped up calls for US oil companies to increase production. (Jin10 Data APP) US import and export prices surged in April, posting the largest increases in over four years, driven by oil market pressures related to the Iran conflict, further signaling rising inflation in the world's largest economy. Data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the import price index rose 1.9% MoM, the largest increase since March 2022, with petroleum costs surging 19%. Export prices rose 3.3% MoM, also the largest increase in over four years. (Wallstreetcn)

[German Auto Industry Sentiment Further Weakened by Iran War] The Ifo Institute said that sentiment in Germany's automotive industry deteriorated further in April, as the Iran war intensified uncertainty and caused energy prices to surge. The institute said the business climate index for Germany's automotive industry fell from minus 19 points in March to minus 23.8 points, with enterprises taking a significantly more pessimistic view of the months ahead.

SMM April 24 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, most base metals on the domestic market fell. SHFE copper dropped 0.66%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.54%. SHFE lead declined 0.15%, and SHFE zinc fell 0.35%. SHFE tin dropped 0.66%, while SHFE nickel rose 2.63%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures fell 0.42%, and the most-traded alumina futures dropped 0.74%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 0.62%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.46%. The most-traded polysilicon futures dropped 7.53%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore rose 0.45%, rebar edged up slightly, hot-rolled coil dipped slightly, and stainless steel gained 1.85%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.31%, and the most-traded coke contract dropped 1.29%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals generally declined. LME copper fell 0.56%. LME aluminum edged down slightly, LME lead rose 0.15%, and LME zinc dropped 0.41%. LME tin fell 0.48%. LME nickel rose 0.13%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 0.73%, and COMEX silver dropped 0.91%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures fell 1.03%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures dropped 3.06%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 3.15%, and the most-traded palladium futures dropped 4.81%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract fell 0.15%, closing at 2,191.4 points. As of 11:41 on April 24, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot Prices and Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 280 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,795 yuan/mt, up 515 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,695 yuan/mt, up 515 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory ended a two-session decline and saw a notable increase... Macro Front China: [Compared with early April, 23 products saw price increases, 26 declined, and 1 remained flat in mid-April] Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed: based on monitoring of market prices of 50 key production materials across 9 categories in the national circulation sector, compared with early April 2026, 23 products saw price increases, 26 declined, and 1 remained flat in mid-April; among them, live hogs (crossbred) fell 1.1% MoM. [New Lunar Soil Discovery! China Discovers Two More New Lunar Minerals] On April 24, the China National Space Administration released the latest research findings on Chang'e-5 lunar samples. China discovered two new lunar minerals from the Chang'e-5 lunar samples. Magnesium Changeite, discovered from the Chang'e-5 lunar samples, was primarily found in basalt fragments obtained through lunar drilling. The mineral appears as columnar crystals, with a grain size of only 2 to 3e-05 meters, approximately one-thirtieth to one-third the diameter of a human hair. Experts told reporters that Magnesium Changeite and the previously discovered Changeite are both calcium-rare earth phosphate minerals, but Magnesium Changeite is richer in magnesium and rare earth elements. In addition to Magnesium Changeite, researchers also discovered a new mineral named Cerium Changeite from the Chang'e-5 lunar samples. (CCTV News) [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Achieved Net Injection of 4.5 Billion Yuan for the Day and 14 Billion Yuan for the Week] The PBOC conducted 5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, the net injection for the day was 4.5 billion yuan. This week, the PBOC conducted a total of 17 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations. As a total of 3 billion yuan of reverse repos matured this week, the net injection for the week was 14 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data) US Dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index rose 0.06% to 98.89. According to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the US Fed in April was 1%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 99%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the US Fed through June was 2.6%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 96.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 1%. Mitsubishi UFJ stated that uncertainty over US trade policy persisted. The Trump administration appeared to favor a weaker US dollar. With Warsh nominated as Fed Chairman, concerns over the US Fed's independence remained. (Jin10 Data) Other Currencies: Abhijit Surya, Senior Asia-Pacific Economist at Capital Economics, said the Bank of Japan could cut interest rate as early as June. The firm believed that although the Bank of Japan was likely to keep rates unchanged at its meeting next week, the board could release some hawkish signals by raising its forecasts for headline and core inflation. In addition, the Bank of Japan could once again emphasize the risks posed by rising inflation expectations, "especially as some enterprise inflation expectations indicators in the 'Tankan Survey' have begun to exceed the (central bank's) 2% target level." (Jin Shi Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of the US April final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, the US April final one-year inflation rate expectations, the UK April GfK Consumer Confidence Index, the UK March seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM, the German April IFO Business Climate Index, Japan's March core CPI YoY, and Canada's February retail sales MoM, among other data. Crude oil: As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets continued to rise, with WTI up 0.65% and Brent up 0.7%. Escalating tensions over Iran supported the continued rise in oil prices. Dennis Kissler, Senior Vice President at BOK Financial Securities, said: "Tensions are tightening further — the market is now pricing in a more intense, longer-lasting standoff." (Wallstreetcn) A survey by the Dallas Fed showed that US oil executives expected domestic production to rise as the ongoing war involving Iran disrupted global supply and pushed up crude oil and fuel prices. The survey collected data from 120 oil and natural gas companies between April 15-20, of which 78 were exploration and production companies and 42 were oilfield services companies. The survey showed that 43% of respondents expected US crude oil production to increase by up to 250,000 barrels per day this year due to the Iran war. This expectation differed from the forecast of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), which estimated that US crude oil production would decrease by 70,000 barrels in 2026. About two-thirds of respondents believed that at least 90% of the currently shut-in Persian Gulf crude oil would eventually return to the market. When asked when shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could return to normal levels, 20% of respondents said next month, 39% said August, and the rest said November or later. Most executives expected transportation costs in the Persian Gulf region to rise after the conflict ends, with more than one-third saying costs would increase by $2-4 per barrel. (Jin Shi Data) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM April 24 News: Metals market: Overnight, base metals generally fell across both domestic and overseas markets. LME nickel and SHFE nickel both rose over 1%, with LME nickel up 1.68% and SHFE nickel up 1.65%. SHFE copper rose 0.04%, and SHFE tin rose 0.11%. The remaining metals all declined. LME copper and LME tin both fell over 1%, with LME copper down 1.19% and LME tin down 1.35%. The rest of the metals fell less than 1%. The alumina front-month contract fell 0.25%, and the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 0.04%. Overnight, ferrous metals generally rose. Stainless steel rose 1.14%, and iron ore rose 0.25%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar saw slight fluctuations. Coking coal and coke side, both coking coal and coke fell 0.51%. Overnight, precious metals side, COMEX gold fell 0.93%, and COMEX silver fell 3.21%. In China, SHFE gold fell 0.2%, and SHFE silver fell 1.58%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:42 AM on April 24: Macro Front China: [General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council: The NDRC, NBS, and National Energy Administration shall establish a dynamic monitoring and early warning system for key data] The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Comprehensive Evaluation and Assessment Measures for Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality." The measures stipulate that the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and the National Energy Administration shall establish a dynamic monitoring and early warning system for key data, regularly monitoring indicators such as carbon emissions, coal consumption, oil consumption, new electricity consumption, and new clean energy power consumption at the national level and across provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government), and issue reminders and warnings to relevant provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) as appropriate. (Xinhua News Agency) (Jin10 Data APP) [National Energy Administration: As of end-March, China's cumulative installed power generation capacity reached 3.96 billion kW, up 15.5% YoY] The National Energy Administration released national electricity statistics for January-March. As of end-March, China's cumulative installed power generation capacity reached 3.96 billion kW, up 15.5% YoY. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.24 billion kW, up 31.3% YoY; wind power installed capacity was 660 million kW, up 22.4% YoY. From January to March, the cumulative average utilization hours of national power generation equipment were 703 hours, down 66 hours from the same period last year. (Jin10 Data APP) [Guangzhou Futures Exchange issued a notice on adjusting the trading fee standards for platinum and palladium futures-related contracts.] After deliberation, effective from the trading session on April 27, 2026, the trading fee standards for platinum futures PT2606 and palladium futures PD2606 contracts will be adjusted to 0.01% of the transaction value, and the intraday close-today trading fee standards will be adjusted to 0.01% of the transaction value. US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.22% to 98.83. Mitsubishi UFJ: Uncertainty over US trade policy persists. The Trump administration appears to favor a weaker US dollar. Concerns over US Fed independence remain given Warsh's nomination as Fed Chairman. (Jin10 Data APP) At the Senate hearing held this week, Warsh's performance was largely in line with expectations: he reaffirmed the importance of US Fed independence and elaborated on his views regarding US Fed reform, balance sheet reduction, and long-term economic trends. Although Trump has been publicly calling for interest rate cuts, Warsh made it clear that Trump had not asked him to make any commitments on cutting interest rates. However, the real highlight of the hearing was Warsh's in-depth discussion on "how to measure inflation." This is likely to become the new framework for defining price trends once Warsh takes the helm of the US Fed. (Jin10 Data) According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April was 1%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 99%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by June was 2.6%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 96.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 1%. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Data to be released today include the US April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final reading, the US April one-year inflation rate expectations final reading, the UK April GfK Consumer Confidence Index, the UK March seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM, the German April IFO Business Climate Index, Japan's March core CPI YoY, and Canada's February retail sales MoM. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices in both markets rose together. WTI crude rose 4.35% and Brent crude rose 4.02%, marking a four-session winning streak, driven by renewed escalation in the Middle East situation and heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump administration plans to extend a shipping waiver allowing foreign tankers to transport oil and gasoline within the US to address supply disruptions and price increases triggered by the Iran conflict. According to sources, the decision to continue exempting energy shipments from the Jones Act could be announced as early as local time Friday. The current waiver is set to expire on May 17. This move could provide some relief for US refiners that are beginning to book waterborne cargo for July. It remains unclear how long the extension will last or what range of commodities it will cover. A White House official said the extension was under consideration but provided no further details. (Jin10 Data APP) Analysts at ING said that due to slow progress in negotiations between the US and Iran, the market had to readjust expectations, as this raised concerns about the impact of prolonged supply disruptions on products. As regional mediators raced against time to get the diplomatic process back on track, and ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz escalated tensions, Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, briefly rebounded above $100 per barrel. However, these analysts noted: "If negotiations make no progress, the market will become increasingly numb to the various rumors and headlines that have been dominating oil price movements recently." (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM April 18 Update: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight session saw broad gains across base metals in the domestic market. SHFE copper rose 0.78%; on a weekly basis, SHFE copper posted a four-week winning streak, gaining 4.07% for the week. SHFE aluminum fell 1.25%, SHFE lead rose 0.24%, SHFE zinc rose 0.71%, SHFE tin rose 0.03%, and SHFE nickel fell 2.19%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 1.01%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum continuous contract fell 1.18%. Last Friday's overnight session saw ferrous metals all fall. Iron ore fell 0.58%, stainless steel fell 0.27%, rebar fell 0.16%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.09%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.24%, and coke fell 0.18%. Overseas market metals last Friday overnight, LME base metals broadly rose. LME copper rose 0.81%; on a weekly basis, LME copper posted a four-day winning streak, gaining 3.83% for the week. LME aluminum fell 2.72%, LME lead rose 0.8%, LME zinc rose 0.25%, LME tin rose 0.03%, and LME nickel rose 1.69%. Precious metals last Friday overnight : COMEX gold rose 0.85%, posting a three-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 1.3%; COMEX silver rose 2.82%, posting a four-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 5.82%. Last Friday overnight, SHFE gold rose 0.94%, posting a three-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 0.12%; SHFE silver rose 3.74%, posting a four-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 5.18%. Gold prices rebounded amid optimistic sentiment over US-Iran negotiations, but further gains may be limited until the geopolitical situation becomes clearer. Commerzbank analysts noted: "Gold prices also rebounded on hopes of an end to the war, as this eased concerns that central banks would have to respond to higher inflation risks with tighter monetary policy, thereby increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. However, as long as uncertainty remains elevated, the underlying recovery in the gold market may be temporarily exhausted." As of 7:45 AM on April 18, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [State Council Executive Meeting: Deeply Implement the Strategy to Upgrade Pilot Free Trade Zones and Promote High-Quality Development of Pilot FTZs] Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting to hear reports on the development of pilot free trade zones. The meeting noted that since the 18th CPC National Congress, pilot FTZs had actively explored deepening reform, expanding opening-up, and promoting development, achieving a series of breakthrough and pioneering results and effectively serving as comprehensive pilot platforms. In the face of new circumstances and new tasks, it is necessary to thoroughly implement the strategy for upgrading pilot free trade zones, reform and improve institutional mechanisms, further optimize the layout and enhance capacity, and better serve the overall national development. Efforts should be made to adapt measures to local conditions, proceed in a steady and orderly manner, and pursue practical results. On the basis of scientific assessment and evaluation, and in accordance with local conditions and actual needs, tailored plans should be formulated for each zone to solidly advance related work and promote high-quality development of pilot free trade zones. Support should be given to pilot free trade zones such as Shanghai to leverage their functional positioning, proactively align with high-standard international economic and trade rules, steadily expand institutional opening-up in terms of rules, regulations, management, and standards, explore and develop more replicable and scalable experiences and practices, and better play a demonstrative, leading, and radiating role. (CCTV News) [MOF and Another Department: Adjusting the Scope of VAT and Consumption Tax Refund Goods for Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone] The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the adjustment of the scope of VAT and consumption tax refund goods for Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone. Goods related to production sold from the mainland to Pingtan via the "second line" shall be treated as exports, and VAT and consumption tax refunds shall be implemented in accordance with current tax policy provisions. However, the following goods are excluded: 1 Exported goods to which the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration have stipulated that VAT refund (exemption) and tax exemption policies do not apply. 2 Goods procured for commercial real estate development projects in Pingtan. Commercial real estate development projects refer to the construction (including renovation and expansion) of hotels, office buildings, villas, apartments, residences, commercial shopping venues, entertainment and service facilities, catering establishments, and other commercial real estate projects. 3 Other goods sold from the mainland to Pingtan that are not eligible for tax refunds. The specific scope is detailed in the appendix. 4 Goods purchased by enterprises whose tax refund or exemption eligibility has been revoked in accordance with relevant regulations. (Ministry of Finance) (Jin10 Data APP) [General Administration of Customs: Supporting Local Governments in Building Bulk Commodity Collection, Distribution, Storage, and Transportation Bases Leveraging Comprehensive Bonded Zones to Conduct Storage and Distribution of Bulk Commodities Such as Energy and Mineral Products] On April 17, the General Office of the State Council forwarded the notice of the General Administration of Customs on Several Measures for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of Comprehensive Bonded Zones. Among the measures proposed, serving national strategic needs was highlighted. Support is given to local governments to build bulk commodity collection, distribution, storage, and transportation bases leveraging comprehensive bonded zones, and to conduct storage and distribution of bulk commodities such as energy and mineral products. Enterprises within the zones are allowed to carry out physical blending of metal ore products through bonded logistics. Differentiated conformity assessment shall be implemented. Support is given to enterprises within the zones to conduct key core technology research in areas such as artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, industrial master machines, medical equipment, instruments and meters, advanced materials, basic software, and industrial software. Differentiated conformity assessment shall be implemented for relevant equipment, reagents, and consumables imported by enterprises in accordance with national statutory inspection requirements. [CSRC Solicits Public Comments on the Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft) and Supporting Implementation Provisions] Building on the public consultation conducted in March 2023, the CSRC, in light of new circumstances and issues encountered in futures industry regulatory practice, conducted further research and deliberation on the relevant institutional arrangements of the Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies, and formulated a new Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft). Concurrently, the CSRC drafted the Announcement on Matters Concerning the Implementation of the (Exposure Draft) as supporting implementation provisions. Public comments are now being solicited. The new Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft) shifts futures market-making and derivatives trading businesses — previously operated by risk management subsidiaries with filing-based access and self-regulatory management by the China Futures Association — to be operated by futures companies, subject to licensing-based access and administrative supervision, and strengthens the regulation of futures companies' subsidiaries and branches. US dollar: Last Friday, the overnight US dollar index rose 0.02% to 98.22. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index fell for a third consecutive week, down 0.48% for the week. After Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz was now "fully open" to commercial shipping, the US dollar erased all gains since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, further weakening demand for safe-haven assets. The index declined consecutively as investors focused on ceasefire and negotiations toward a potentially broader agreement. Jayati Bharadwaj, head of FX strategy at TD Securities, said: "The safe-haven bid has started to fade. That's why the dollar is lower." (Jin10 Data) Fed Governor Waller said he was cautious about whether an interest rate cut was needed in the near term due to the energy shock triggered by the Iran war, and warned that the conflict could have a lasting impact on inflation. In his remarks, Waller outlined two main scenarios. In the first scenario, if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and trade flows return to normal, officials would be able to look through the surge in energy prices and shift their focus to the weakening job market later this year. He said that if this were the case, "I think there is a prospect that underlying inflation will continue to pull back toward the 2% target, which would make me cautious about cutting interest rates now and more inclined to support the labour market through interest rate cuts later this year when the outlook is more stable." However, he warned that oil prices and the broader market were underestimating the risk of a prolonged conflict. "On the inflation front, the risk is that the longer the conflict lasts and the longer energy prices stay high, the greater the likelihood that these elevated prices seep into other prices, as enterprises factor high energy input costs into their pricing."He stated that if this occurred against a backdrop of a weak jobs market, it would limit the scope for policy response. In such a scenario, he would weigh the risks of higher inflation against a weaker labour market, adding that "if inflation risks outweigh labour market risks, this could mean keeping the policy rate at the current target range." (Jin10 Data) Other currencies: ECB Governing Council member De Marco: June is a more natural time to make a judgment; there is not much additional information in April; the situation seems to be heading toward an adverse scenario; the rate decisions in April or June are not yet set in stone. (Jin10 Data) Analysts at Berenberg Bank said in a report that once the worst of the Middle East conflict passes, Europe's positive fundamentals should re-emerge. Economic growth is likely to be led by Germany, which, in addition to fiscal stimulus, should accelerate pro-growth reforms. They stated: "We expect most eurozone member states to return to their 2025 growth rates by 2027." By 2028, eurozone growth is expected to be around 1.5%. The UK should experience a greater upside. By contrast, US growth is expected to slow down in the coming years. The analysts stated: "Tariff-induced capital misallocation, pervasive Trump policy uncertainty, and most importantly, the harsh crackdown on immigration will all take a toll." (Jin10 Data) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include: China's 1-year Loan Prime Rate as of April 20; Germany's March PPI MoM; Canada's March CPI MoM; Switzerland's March trade balance; UK February three-month ILO unemployment rate; UK March unemployment rate; UK March jobseeker's allowance claimant count; Germany's April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index; eurozone April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index; US March retail sales MoM; US February business inventory MoM; US March pending home sales index MoM; UK March CPI MoM; UK March Retail Price Index MoM; eurozone April consumer confidence index preliminary reading; China's March SWIFT RMB share in global payments; France's April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; Germany's April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; eurozone April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; UK April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; UK April services PMI preliminary reading; UK April CBI industrial orders balance; US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18; US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; US April S&P Global services PMI preliminary reading; Japan's March core CPI YoY; UK March seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM; Germany's April IFO Business Climate Index; Canada's February retail sales MoM; US April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index final reading; and US April one-year inflation expectations final reading. In addition, other events to watch this week included: German Chancellor Merz and European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde delivering speeches; the US Senate Banking Committee holding a hearing on Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chairman; China opening a new round of refined oil price adjustment window; ECB President Lagarde delivering a speech; US President Trump hosting an early summer White House Correspondents' Dinner. (Jin10 Data) Crude Oil: Last Friday, both oil futures fell sharply overnight, with WTI crude dropping 7.86% and Brent crude falling 7.01%. On a weekly basis, WTI crude futures fell more than 10% for two consecutive weeks, down 13.02% for the week; Brent crude posted two consecutive weekly declines, down 2.92% for the week. Easing market sentiment from US-Iran nuclear negotiations, coupled with Iran's foreign minister stating that the Strait of Hormuz would be open to all commercial vessels during the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, drove crude oil prices lower. Iran announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump confirmed. According to Xinhua News Agency, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said on the 17th that, given the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels during the ceasefire period. US President Trump subsequently confirmed this. (Wall Street Journal CN) However, according to the latest report from Xinhua News Agency: Iranian Islamic Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf posted on social media in the early hours of the 18th, stating that the seven statements US President Trump had previously posted on social media within one hour were "all untrue." The US failed to win wars through lies and would gain nothing in negotiations either. Ghalibaf emphasized that if the US continued to blockade Iranian ports, the Strait of Hormuz could not remain open. (Xinhua News Agency) According to Reuters, approximately 20 minutes before Iran's foreign minister announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on local time Friday, investors placed approximately $760 million in short bets on oil prices, marking yet another large wager on the world's most actively traded commodity ahead of a major development during the Middle East conflict. According to LSEG data, between 20:24 and 20:25 Beijing time on Friday, investors sold a combined 7,990 lots of Brent crude oil futures. At prevailing prices, these trades were worth approximately $760 million. Then around 20:45, Iran's foreign minister posted that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open to all commercial vessels for the remainder of the ceasefire, and within minutes, oil prices extended their intraday decline to as much as 11%. In recent months, multiple precisely timed large trades have raised concerns among US lawmakers and legal experts that decisions surrounding war and diplomacy may be giving certain traders an advantage in volatile and opaque derivatives markets. It had previously been reported that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission was investigating a series of crude oil futures trades, including those on March 23 and April 7, all of which occurred shortly before Trump made major policy shifts regarding Iran and the war. The US Department of Energy (DOE) said on Friday local time that it had lent 26.03 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to nine oil companies, marking the third batch of loans by the Trump administration aimed at curbing fuel prices that had surged since the US-Iran war began. The DOE said in a statement that companies receiving SPR loans included BP North America, ExxonMobil, and Marathon Petroleum. (Jin10 Data) As Middle Eastern supply was disrupted due to weeks of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Asian refiners turned to importing US crude oil, and US crude oil shipments through the Panama Canal approached a four-year high. According to data from shipping intelligence firm Kpler for the first half of April, US crude oil exports via this shortest route connecting the US Gulf Coast to Asia exceeded 200,000 barrels per day, approaching the highest level since July 2022. Sources said waiting times to enter the Panama Canal had extended significantly, prompting crude oil shippers to pay over $3 million for priority passage. Although the Panama Canal cannot accommodate the largest tankers, it provides a shortcut to the Far East. Traveling from the US Gulf Coast to Japan via the canal typically takes close to one month, while routing around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa could take nearly twice as long. Data showed that the vast majority of tankers heading to the Pacific in March and April carried US crude oil destined for Japan and South Korea. (Jin10 Data) In addition, four energy sources said Iraq had resumed southern oil exports after a disruption of over one month due to disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz, with a tanker having begun loading. (Jin10 Data) Note: NYMEX WTI crude oil May futures are subject to contract rollover, with the last floor trading completed at 2:30 on April 22 and the last electronic trading completed at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and contract rollover announcements to manage risk. In addition, the expiration time for US crude oil contracts on some trading platforms is typically one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule. Please take note. Recommended reading:

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced today that in 2025, national real estate development investment totaled 8,278.8 billion yuan, down 17.2% from the previous year; of which, residential investment amounted to 6,351.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.3%. I. Real Estate Development Investment Completion In 2025, national real estate development investment reached 8,278.8 billion yuan, a decline of 17.2% from the previous year (calculated on a comparable basis, see note 6 for details); of which, residential investment was 6,351.4 billion yuan, down 16.3%. In 2025, the floor space of buildings under construction by real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion m², down 10.0% year-on-year. Of this, residential building floor space under construction was 4.6012 billion m², a decrease of 10.3%. The floor space of buildings newly started was 587.7 million m², down 20.4%. Of this, newly started residential floor space was 429.84 million m², a decline of 19.8%. The floor space of buildings completed was 603.48 million m², down 18.1%. Of this, completed residential floor space was 428.3 million m², a decrease of 20.2%. II. Sales and Pending Sale of New Commercial Buildings In 2025, the floor space of new commercial buildings sold was 881.01 million m², down 8.7% from the previous year; of which, residential sales floor space fell by 9.2%. The sales value of new commercial buildings was 8,393.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%; of which, residential sales value dropped by 13.0%. At the 2025 year-end, the floor space of commercial buildings pending sale was 766.32 million m², an increase of 1.6% from the prior year-end, and a pullback of 1.0 percentage point from the November month-end. Of this, the pending sale area for residential buildings grew by 2.8%. III. Funds Secured by Real Estate Development Enterprises In 2025, funds secured by real estate development enterprises totaled 9,311.7 billion yuan, down 13.4% from the previous year. Of this, domestic loans were 1,409.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3%; utilized foreign capital was 2.5 billion yuan, down 20.8%; self-raised funds were 3,314.9 billion yuan, a decline of 12.2%; deposits and advance receipts were 2,808.9 billion yuan, down 16.2%; and individual mortgage loans were 1,285.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.8%. IV. Real Estate Development Climate Index In December 2025, the Real Estate Development Climate Index (abbreviated as “Guofang Climate Index”) stood at 91.45.