[SMM Chrome Daily Review: Poor Market Sentiment and Sluggish Sales] November 7, 2025: The ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia today was 8,100-8,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content), down 25 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM from the previous trading day.

This week, stainless steel spot prices and production costs remained basically stable with relatively small changes, and the losses at stainless steel mills narrowed. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on the raw material prices of the day, the cash cost increased by about 9.16 yuan/mt this week, with the loss ratio reaching 5.42%; if calculated based on the raw material inventory cost, the cash cost decreased by about 16.19 yuan/mt, and the loss rate remained at 1.98%. On the nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices continued to rise this week, but the upward momentum has slowed down. Although it is still the traditional peak consumption season, the stainless steel market has been underperforming, with SS futures in the doldrums and stainless steel spot prices struggling to rise. Stainless steel mills are facing losses due to cost-price inversion and have low acceptance of high NPI prices. In addition, most enterprises have completed their October procurement and stockpiling, leading to a slowdown in market transactions and weaker price trends. As of Friday, the price of high-grade NPI with 10-12% grade accumulated an increase of 1 yuan/mtu, finally settling at 954.5 yuan/mtu. In the stainless steel scrap market, the peak season has been underperforming, with stainless steel finished product prices as well as nickel and chromium prices struggling to rise, and stainless steel scrap prices also in the doldrums. Compared to high-grade NPI, the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap has further increased. As of Friday, the price of 304 off-cuts in east China remained basically stable, with the latest offer at about 9,750 yuan/mt. On the chrome-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices remained generally stable this week, with further upward momentum encountering significant resistance. During the week, the overseas futures price of South African chrome concentrate ore with 40-42% grade increased slightly by $1, reaching $280/mt, while the spot ore price remained basically unchanged. Ferrochrome producers are generally profitable, and the previous tight supply situation has been largely alleviated. As the month-end approaches, the October steel tender is expected to be announced soon, and the market still holds bullish expectations for the ferrochrome tender. However, due to the lack of upward momentum in stainless steel prices recently and the cost-price inversion at stainless steel mills, the expected increase is limited, and market retail prices have also become more rational, with the overall trend remaining stable. As of Friday, the price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia held steady, finally settling at 8,500 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

This week, stainless steel spot prices rose slightly, but the increase was smaller than that of production costs, leading to a wider price inversion for stainless steel mills. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on the current raw material prices, cash costs increased by 126.41 yuan/mt WoW, pushing the loss ratio to 6.11%. When calculated using raw material inventory costs, cash costs rose by 8.85 yuan/mt, with the loss rate remaining at 2.91%. On the nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices continued their strong upward trend this week. A major domestic stainless steel mill announced its tender price for high-grade NPI, raising it to 940 yuan/mtu, which drove market offers higher and sustained the bullish momentum. Despite high smelting costs for high-grade NPI, expectations for production increases at stainless steel mills strengthened as the traditional September-October peak season approached, boosting anticipated demand for raw materials. Additionally, recent stainless steel price increases alleviated cost pressures for mills, keeping the high-grade NPI market firm. By Friday, prices for 10-12% grade high-grade NPI had risen by 11.5 yuan/mtu cumulatively, closing at 940.5 yuan/mtu. In the stainless steel scrap market, finished stainless steel prices, along with nickel and chromium prices, firmed up this week, while stainless steel scrap prices remained basically stable. However, compared to high-grade NPI, its cost-effectiveness remained at a disadvantage. By Friday, 304 off-cuts prices in east China were largely steady, with the latest offer around 9,750 yuan/mt. For chromium-based raw material costs, Tsingshan announced its September tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome this week, up 300 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM to 8,295 yuan/mt (50% metal content), exceeding earlier market expectations and fueling bullish sentiment. Recently, retail supply of ferrochrome has been tight, with producers generally refusing to budge on prices. Additionally, transportation costs for some northern ferrochrome producers rose due to logistics constraints at Tianjin Port. Meanwhile, the seventh round of coke price hikes took effect, increasing ferrochrome smelting costs. The stronger-than-expected mill tenders further indicated robust expectations for production growth during the September-October peak season, signaling significantly higher demand for ferrochrome. However, overseas ferrochrome producers halted operations, and a major domestic ferrochrome plant reportedly cut production, exacerbating supply tightness and reinforcing market confidence in further price increases. By Friday, Inner Mongolia high-carbon ferrochrome prices had risen by 250 yuan/mt (50% metal content) cumulatively, closing at 8,275 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

This week, the price of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China first rose then fell, remaining basically stable at 9,750-9,850 yuan/mt; the price of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in Foshan dropped slightly to 9,400-9,700 yuan/mt. Currently, by raw material, the production cost of producing stainless steel entirely from stainless steel scrap is about 13,594.74 yuan/mt, while the production cost of producing stainless steel entirely from high-grade NPI is about 13,286.84 yuan/mt. This week, a steel mill in south China has not yet adjusted its tender price for purchasing stainless steel scrap. This week, SS futures pulled back significantly, giving up the gains made within the month. The trading of finished stainless steel products was sluggish, and spot prices also declined. However, high-grade NPI continued its strong performance with quotations showing a continuous upward trend. Additionally, chromium prices also strengthened. Stainless steel scrap did not follow the decline in finished products this week and remained basically stable. Nevertheless, under the weakening market for finished stainless steel, downstream purchase willingness declined, and the trading of stainless steel scrap was sluggish. Moreover, although the economic disadvantage of using stainless steel scrap compared to high-grade NPI narrowed, it still remains at a disadvantage. It is expected that the price of stainless steel scrap may continue to be in the doldrums in the short term.