SMM Analysis: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 64,900 mt of copper anode (HS code: 74020000) in January 2026, up 5.74% MoM and up 1.48% YoY...

According to the latest customs data, in January 2026, China’s imports of copper-zinc alloy (brass) bars and rods were 2,050.01 mt in physical content, down 8.37% MoM and up 24.53% YoY. In February, China’s imports of copper-zinc alloy (brass) bars and rods were 1,344.87 mt in physical content, down 34.4% MoM and down 36.67% YoY, showing an overall sharp decline. Cumulative imports in January-February 2026 were 3,394.87, down 9.94% YoY cumulatively. (HS codes 74072111, 74072119, 74072190).

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Prices Halted Their Decline, but Wait-and-See Sentiment Remained Unchanged; Rangebound Movement May Continue in the Short Term] Spot market, yesterday the overall ADC12 market continued to hold prices steady. Aluminum prices showed signs of halting their decline, but market sentiment recovered only limitedly, and enterprises generally chose to postpone price adjustments and mainly adopt a wait-and-see stance. Demand side, downstream orders did not improve significantly, and just-in-time procurement remained the main approach, with mediocre transaction performance. Against the backdrop of easing cost-side fluctuations and insufficient demand support, ADC12 prices may continue to fluctuate within a range and remain relatively stable in the short term, with relatively limited momentum for price adjustments. Further attention should still be paid to aluminum price trends and the recovery of end-use demand.

[SMM Daily Review: Macro Policies Drove a Rebound in Futures, with High-Grade NPI Quotes Edging Up] March 26 News: SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.86, up 0.03 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.56, flat MoM.

[Overnight, LME Aluminum and SHFE Aluminum Edged Up Slightly, but Aluminum Prices Faced Short-Term Pressure at High Levels] Continued destocking in LME inventory provided bottom support for LME aluminum, but amid tightening fund liquidity and profit-taking by bulls, upward momentum remained insufficient, and the backwardation structure weakened somewhat. China’s social inventory rose to a high for the same period in nearly five years, and the inventory buildup cycle had yet to end, with high inventory and weak spot fundamentals jointly weighing on upward momentum. The divergence between domestic and overseas drivers continued, the SHFE/LME price ratio kept weakening, and prices were mainly under pressure in the short term.

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Magnesium Market Held Up Well, With Cost Support and a Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers Continuing] This week, the overall magnesium industry chain held up well, with prices of all products generally raised. The raw material dolomite market remained stable, with ample supply and steady demand. Magnesium ingot prices consolidated at highs. At the beginning of the week, supported by rising energy costs such as ferrosilicon and coke and tight spot availability, prices jumped by 300 yuan/mt. Subsequently, downstream fear of high prices emerged, transactions failed to keep pace, and prices consolidated at highs. In foreign trade, the center of magnesium ingot FOB quotes moved up to $2,440-2,470/mt. Wait-and-see sentiment outside China remained strong, but influenced by bullish expectations in China, forward orders were gradually locked in. Magnesium powder prices remained firm, with strong cost support. Export data increased YoY, while domestic trade was mainly driven by just-in-time procurement. The benchmark price of magnesium alloy held up well, but the release of new capacity led to increased supply, processing fees stayed in the doldrums, and the market showed a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Overall, cost support remained the core driver behind magnesium prices fluctuating at highs, while downstream acceptance of high prices was limited, and the market may continue this tug-of-war in the short term.

The operating rate of major copper cathode rod enterprises in China stood at 81.51% last week (March 13–March 19), marking the fourth consecutive week of MoM improvement since the Chinese New Year, with industry sentiment continuing to recover. The strong rebound in the operating rate in this round was mainly driven by two factors: first, the relatively weak operating rates of secondary copper rod enterprises, coupled with the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap remaining at a relatively low level, significantly weakened the substitution effect between copper cathode and copper scrap, leaving more market room for copper cathode rod; second, improving orders for downstream wire and cable and enamelled wire boosted a faster drawdown in enterprises' finished product inventories. As copper prices broke above low-level support, downstream procurement sentiment continued to heat up, and new orders for copper cathode rod enterprises showed a pattern of concentrated volume release. Most enterprises reported that their production pace could no longer keep up with shipment progress, and some had already begun to proactively control the pace of taking orders to ensure contract fulfillment. From the downstream industry perspective, wire and cable as well as enamelled wire enterprises also benefited from the pullback in copper prices, with operating rates steadily rebounding, further boosting demand for copper rod. Inventory side, although the pullback in copper prices boosted enterprises' willingness to restock, constrained by limited room for capacity release, enterprises did not excessively stockpile on dips and mostly maintained normal production raw material reserves. Meanwhile, due to continued downstream pick-up of goods, enterprises' capacity was unable to fully match order demand, accelerating the drawdown of finished product inventories. Enterprises Raise Processing Fees and Increase Margin Requirements to Control Risks After copper prices pulled back sharply, downstream purchase willingness increased significantly, and order concentration rose markedly. To reasonably control the pace of taking orders, some enterprises urgently raised processing fees. At the same time, affected by the increased uncertainty in the pace of cargo pick-up caused by concentrated downstream order placement, as well as the continued decline in copper prices, enterprises became more concerned about the default risk of earlier high-priced orders, and some enterprises simultaneously increased margin ratios to strengthen risk control. Looking ahead, with copper prices rising at present, downstream procurement sentiment has clearly weakened. To ensure stable deliveries, copper cathode rod enterprises are expected to maintain relatively high operating loads. Although rigid demand is gradually being fully released, against the backdrop of low finished product inventories, enterprises will still maintain high operating rates to replenish inventory. Accordingly, SMM expects the operating rate of China's copper cathode rod enterprises to fluctuate at highs in March.

This week, ternary cathode precursor prices increased slightly, while sulphate prices were all flat today. Discounts, for April and Q2 orders, some producers were willing to raise discounts due to large fluctuations in raw material prices. Long-term contracts, some producers recently finalized long-term agreements. As downstream demand was relatively weak, discount increases were expected to be limited, but there was some room for negotiation on processing fees. Spot orders, the Ni-Co-Mn coefficient for spot orders rose this month, and with current downstream procurement sentiment weak, further upside room was expected to be limited. Production, leading producers in China and those with relatively large export orders still maintained high operating intensity. Looking ahead, recent sulphate costs provided strong support, but downstream acceptance remained subject to observation of downstream demand in Q2.

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 232,300 mt in physical content of copper scrap and shredded copper scrap in January 2026, down 2.78% MoM and up 22.82% YoY. Imports were 167,900 mt in physical content in February, down 27.72% MoM and down 13.14% YoY. Cumulative imports in January-February 2026 reached 400,300 mt in physical content, up 4.64% YoY on a cumulative basis. (HS code: 74040000)

SMM Nickel News, March 26: Macro and Market News: (1) On March 25, COSCO SHIPPING Lines issued a service notice announcing the immediate resumption of new bookings for services from the Far East to the following Middle East countries (dry containers): the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq. The resumption of shipments did not mean that COSCO SHIPPING container vessels could pass through the Strait of Hormuz. (2) In the early hours of March 25, Tehran time, Iran's Permanent Mission to the United Nations said in a statement on social media that non-hostile vessels could safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with relevant Iranian authorities, provided that the countries to which they belong or with which they are associated neither participate in nor support acts of aggression against Iran, and fully comply with the announced safety and security regulations. Spot Market: On March 26, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel rose by 1,550 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 5,400 yuan/mt, down 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream electrodeposited nickel was at -400-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) opened sharply higher in last night's session and then fluctuated downward, closing the morning session today at 135,250 yuan/mt, up 0.50%. Policy expectations that Indonesia may impose a nickel export tax, together with firm ore prices on the raw material side and easing macro sentiment, jointly drove nickel prices to rebound. Nickel prices are expected to hold up well in the short term, with the core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract at 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.