Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,895.5/mt. After the opening, prices quickly fell to $1,885.5/mt, then fluctuate rangebound within the $1,888–1,896.5/mt range, with a balanced tug-of-war between longs and shorts and cautious market sentiment. After 0:00, prices rose further, breaking above the previous trading range and touching a high of $1,901/mt, before finally closing at $1,898.5/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up $0/mt, or 0.0%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at a low of 16,420 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices rose rapidly, then saw wide swings within the 16,440–16,481 yuan/mt range, with an evident tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Intraday volatility narrowed, and prices gradually stabilized around 16,455–16,465 yuan/mt, while trading volume pulled back simultaneously and market sentiment turned cautious. Late in the session, SHFE lead broke upward again, touching a high of 16,500 yuan/mt, then quickly pulled back to finally close at 16,470 yuan/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up 50 yuan/mt, or 0.3%. On the macro front: 1. Poll: Trump’s approval rating fell to its lowest level since returning to the White House. 2. US media: The US Department of Justice admitted it lacked evidence in its investigation into Powell. 3. Turkey considered using its $135 billion gold reserves to defend the lira. 4. Israeli media: The US intended to seek a one-month ceasefire to discuss a 15-point agreement with Iran. 5. Goldman Sachs maintained its overweight recommendation on Chinese equities (A-shares and Hong Kong stocks). Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead remained in the doldrums, while suppliers held prices firm on shipments. Quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were raised slightly in spot premiums, while quotations for cargoes self-picked up from production site at primary lead plants changed little. Mainstream producing areas quoted premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead price, with a few quoting premiums of 100 yuan/mt ex-works. On the secondary lead side, some secondary lead enterprises had maintenance plans, and circulating cargoes in the spot market were limited. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, but some engaged in more bargaining. In addition, as secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead, spot order purchases tilted toward primary lead. Inventory: As of March 24, LME lead inventory fell by 725 mt, or 0.26%, to 283,350 mt. As of March 23, SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions pulled back somewhat from previous inventory at high levels. Today’s Lead Price Forecast: Supply side, primary lead smelters held firm offers, and spot premiums in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were raised slightly, while quotations for cargoes self-picked up from production site at primary lead smelters changed little. Some secondary lead smelters had maintenance plans, and circulating cargoes in the spot market were limited. Demand side, downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, but some engaged in more bargaining, and as secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead, spot order procurement tilted toward primary lead. According to SMM analysis, SHFE lead prices were likely to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

SMM, March 25: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,895.5/mt. After the opening, prices quickly fell to $1,885.5/mt, and then fluctuate rangebound within the $1,888–1,896.5/mt range, with a balanced tug-of-war between longs and shorts and relatively cautious market sentiment. After 0:00, prices rose and broke above the previous trading range, hitting a high of $1,901/mt before closing at $1,898.5/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up $0/mt, or 0.0%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at a low of 16,420 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices rose rapidly, and then saw wide swings within the 16,440–16,481 yuan/mt range, with an evident tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Intraday volatility narrowed, with prices gradually stabilizing around 16,455–16,465 yuan/mt, while trading volume also pulled back and market sentiment turned cautious. Late in the session, SHFE lead again broke upward, hitting a high of 16,500 yuan/mt, then quickly pulled back to close at 16,470 yuan/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up 50 yuan/mt, or 0.3%. Supply side, primary lead smelters held firm offers, while spot premiums in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai edged up slightly, and quotes for primary lead smelter cargoes self-picked up from production site changed relatively little. Some secondary lead smelters had maintenance plans, and spot market circulating cargoes were limited. Demand side, downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, but some engaged in more bargaining. In addition, as secondary lead prices were inverted against primary lead, spot order purchases tilted toward primary lead. According to SMM analysis, SHFE lead prices are likely to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

[SMM Analysis:Rare Earth Ore Imports Surge in Early 2026, Exceeding Demand and Causing Surplus] According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, from January to February 2026, China’s imports of mixed rare earth carbonate were about 3,013.7 mt, up 321% YoY. Over the same period, imports of unlisted rare earth oxides were about 12,860.4 mt, also posting a sharp increase of 209% YoY.

As of March 24, titanium dioxide prices continued to rise, with the SMM index up 4.6% since early 2026. Two rounds of price hikes were issued in March amid low inventories. Strong exports and production cuts supported gains, though sustainability post-peak season remains uncertain, hinging on downstream acceptance.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Silicon Metal: Spot silicon metal prices remained in a stalemate consolidation. Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,100-9,300 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous day. The quote center of some silicon enterprises was slightly lower than that of trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market, while downstream users mainly transacted at lower prices, and overall market trading activity was subdued. Polysilicon: N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 38-47 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices continued to decline somewhat recently, mainly affected by market sentiment and inventory clearance by some leading enterprises. At present, low-priced polysilicon has already fallen below the cost line of some manufacturers, and the sentiment to hold quotes firm has strengthened somewhat. The upstream market was also still watching wafer price movements.

[Overnight, LME Aluminum and SHFE Aluminum Edged Up Slightly, but Aluminum Prices Faced Short-Term Pressure at High Levels] Continued destocking in LME inventory provided bottom support for LME aluminum, but amid tightening fund liquidity and profit-taking by bulls, upward momentum remained insufficient, and the backwardation structure weakened somewhat. China’s social inventory rose to a high for the same period in nearly five years, and the inventory buildup cycle had yet to end, with high inventory and weak spot fundamentals jointly weighing on upward momentum. The divergence between domestic and overseas drivers continued, the SHFE/LME price ratio kept weakening, and prices were mainly under pressure in the short term.

As supply and demand for construction steel were not fully matched across different markets, regional supply-demand mismatches created price differentiation, which in turn drove the cross-regional circulation of steel resources. When the regional price spread gradient was appropriate, regions with surplus construction steel capacity and production often shipped excess resources out, thereby rebalancing construction steel resources across regions.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Prices Halted Their Decline, but Wait-and-See Sentiment Remained Unchanged; Rangebound Movement May Continue in the Short Term] Spot market, yesterday the overall ADC12 market continued to hold prices steady. Aluminum prices showed signs of halting their decline, but market sentiment recovered only limitedly, and enterprises generally chose to postpone price adjustments and mainly adopt a wait-and-see stance. Demand side, downstream orders did not improve significantly, and just-in-time procurement remained the main approach, with mediocre transaction performance. Against the backdrop of easing cost-side fluctuations and insufficient demand support, ADC12 prices may continue to fluctuate within a range and remain relatively stable in the short term, with relatively limited momentum for price adjustments. Further attention should still be paid to aluminum price trends and the recovery of end-use demand.

I. Coal-to-Hydrogen Shandong anthracite transaction range [1,680-1,680], with an average hydrogen cost of [1.61 yuan/m³] Shanxi anthracite transaction range [910-910], with an average hydrogen cost of [1.05 yuan/m³] Hebei anthracite transaction range [1,390-1,390], with an average hydrogen cost of [1.39 yuan/m³] Henan anthracite transaction range [980-980], with an average hydrogen cost of [1.06 yuan/m³] II. Natural Gas-to-Hydrogen Pearl River Delta natural gas transaction range [5,520-5,620], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.62 yuan/m³] Zhejiang natural gas transaction range [5,500-5,850], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.63 yuan/m³] Guangxi natural gas transaction range [5,180-5,610], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.5 yuan/m³] Eastern Guangdong natural gas transaction range [5,500-5,590], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.58 yuan/m³] Henan natural gas transaction range [4,720-4,890], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.31 yuan/m³] Hebei natural gas transaction range [4,720-5,080], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.33 yuan/m³] Hubei natural gas transaction range [4,980-5,350], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.44 yuan/m³] Guizhou natural gas transaction range [4,990-5,720], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.51 yuan/m³] Sichuan natural gas transaction range [4,825-5,125], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.38 yuan/m³] Shanxi natural gas transaction range [4,520-4,880], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.22 yuan/m³] Shandong natural gas transaction range [5,040-5,250], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.44 yuan/m³] Heilongjiang natural gas transaction range [4,810-5,060], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.34 yuan/m³] Inner Mongolia natural gas transaction range [4,560-4,800], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.18 yuan/m³] III. Propane-to-Hydrogen South China propylene oxide transaction range [7,280-7,370], with an average hydrogen cost of [4.11 yuan/m³] East China propylene oxide transaction range [7,100-7,310], with an average hydrogen cost of [4.05 yuan/m³] Northeast China propylene oxide transaction range [5,890-6,310], with an average hydrogen cost of [3.5 yuan/m³] Shandong propylene oxide transaction range [6,960-7,300], with an average hydrogen cost of [4.03 yuan/m³] IV. Hydrogen Production from Methanol The methanol transaction range in east China was [2,800-3,290], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.61 yuan/m³]. The methanol transaction range in central China was [2,780-2,990], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.54 yuan/m³]. The methanol transaction range in north China was [2,360-2,830], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.29 yuan/m³]. The methanol transaction range in south China was [3,310-3,390], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.8 yuan/m³]. The methanol transaction range in northwest China was [1,630-2,630], and the average hydrogen cost was [1.97 yuan/m³]. The methanol transaction range in southwest China was [2,770-3,020], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.55 yuan/m³]. The methanol transaction range in northeast China was [2,770-2,790], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.44 yuan/m³].

SMM, March 24: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,435 yuan/mt intraday. After the opening, prices edged lower, and the tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensified. SHFE lead prices fluctuated at lows in consolidation, touching an intraday low of 16,385 yuan/mt. Thereafter, bulls gradually gained strength and prices fluctuated higher, but with insufficient upward momentum, lead prices pulled back again and fluctuated rangebound within the 16,429-16,451 yuan/mt range. Near the close, SHFE lead prices dipped slightly and finally settled at 16,420 yuan/mt. A small bearish candlestick was recorded, up 25 yuan/mt, or 0.15%. In terms of supply, primary lead enterprise quotes saw discounts narrow slightly from last Friday, and spot cargo available for pickup at plants with medium to large discounts decreased significantly; in the secondary refined lead market, fewer merchants offered quotes, with relatively prominent price divergence between upstream and downstream players. Downstream buyers showed limited acceptance of premiums, while upstream quotes stayed firm and willingness to sell remained cautious. On the demand side, downstream enterprise procurement pace was relatively scattered, with most purchases centered on the execution of long-term contracts. Some enterprises replenished inventories on dips based on immediate needs, and overall market transactions were mixed. SMM expects SHFE lead prices to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Statement on data sources: Except for public information, all other data is derived by SMM through processing based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.